Sunday, March 10, 2024

Final Oscar Predictions 2023: Now I Am Become Death, the Destroyer of Little Gold Men



 Well, I'm afraid the inevitable is going to keep occurring, wherein 'the inevitable' is one of at least three things: a) my schedule and general procrastination means that I'm going to rush through another movie post this year, b) Oppenheimer is going to cruise to a truly unholy number of Oscar wins, and/or c) the sun is going to explode (but hopefully not before we find out if Godzilla is going to win an Oscar tonight). And I can speak with some confidence in saying that yes, this post will be rushed, yes, Oppenheimer will win enough Oscars to either stop or start another World War, and yes, the sun will explode (but not for a few minutes, at least). Beyond those three things? It's anybody's game (though what kind of game you want to play that doesn't involve my blogging, prestigious Oscar movies, or the sun, I'll never know). 

Eagle-eyed readers (or actual eagles of any nature) might have noticed that I posted on Thursday saying that I'd be traveling and as such needed to finish all posts before the end of the day. Even sharper readers might notice that today is Sunday and here I am; I'll leave you to deduce how meeting the Thursday deadline went. As such, I'll just launch into things--the Oscars, after all, are only about six hours away (don't forget, they're starting at 5 pm Mountain for the first time ever, assumably because the network is punishing them for their sins). Which means that this post has about six hours of already dubious relevance--is there anything worse than reading Oscar predictions after the ceremony? 

But regardless of how things go, and how rushed they have to be, I'm still pleased as punch to be ranting about them. The Oscars have played a constant role in my life from 1997 on, and predicting from 2003, and they are, ridiculously, they schedule by which I set my year. Like it or not (and, given the word count, I obviously like it), they're a big part of how I keep track of a year, or the passage of time, or my own silly life. And I appreciate that you're part of it, just by being here to read this! (Go ahead and say a grateful prayer that you're not in my family, who is treated annually to a semi-mandatory barrage of movie marathons, production bonanzas, and self-catered watch parties.)

While I might not be Oppenheimer's biggest fan (though I do like it), I have to be thankful for it in at least this one instance: the fact that it is going to charge like a bull through my emotional china shop, killing every little gold man it finds, will make today's post much easier to write quickly. But outside of Oppenheimer's vast swath of predicted terror, there's still some wacky intrigue to be found on the margins. And who doesn't leave giddy intrigue? I will happily guide you through the madness, or do my best approximation of guiding you whilst muttering something unspeakable about Ryan Gosling. I haven't seen nearly as many Oscar nominees as I might have seen (I'm ashamed to admit I haven't seen literally any of the documentary nominees), but what I lack in firsthand knowledge, I make up for in whimsy and good intentions.

So let's get to it! Do note that I can lean more toward fun than accuracy at the Oscars (though I might have shied away from that a little more this year). There are lots of websites that can help you ace your Oscar pool, but I'll always use this space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds.


Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Well, whatever wacky intrigue was promised certainly won't begin here. Anything but Oppenheimer winning would constitute one of the bigger and more surprising upsets in the last 50 years of Oscar history. It's got the momentum, it's got the timely appeal, it's got the apparent and inscrutable love for Christopher Nolan that I will never understand. I suppose you could look to The Holdovers or Killers of the Flower Moon (or even Anatomy of a Fall?) for a shocker, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: The Holdovers
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: May December

Director
Jonathan Glazer-The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things
Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall

Everything that I said above is multiplied x10 here. There's no way that any late-breaking Anatomy of a Fall momentum or 'let's honor Scorsese again' sentiment derails Christopher Nolan's coronation, so I hope he's brought his tiara.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Could Win: Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson-Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Actress
Annette Bening-Nyad
Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan-Maestro
Emma Stone-Poor Things

Some actual-ass intrigue in this category (which, you will find mostly only happens in categories where Oppenheimer isn't present), with Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone fighting it out to the bitter end. Stone has all the early momentum, but Gladstone recently won the Screen Actors Guild award, a possible sign that the moment has shifted. There also appears more of a desire to award Gladstone: the narrative of a hardworking character actor giving a revelatory performance--for people who hadn't already seen her other work--and being the first indigenous person to win an acting Oscar seeming like a better outcome than Emma Stone, beloved as she is, getting her second Oscar before she hits 40. It'll be a nailbiter down to the moment the envelope is opened, but I can't help but wonder if Killers of the Flower Moon's underperformance on the awards circuit and at the Oscar nominations will be enough to tank Gladstone's chances in the face of Poor Things's clear popularity. And, if you want to jump for something totally off the wall, you could predict that Anatomy of a Fall's momentum surge and Stone and Gladstone's tight race is enough to bring Sandra Hüller in under the radar. It's a wild thought, but wilder things have certainly happened.

Will Win: Emma Stone-Poor Things
Could Win: Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: Greta Lee-Past Lives

Actor
Bradley Cooper-Maestro
Colman Domingo-Rustin
Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction

A similar race to best actress, but a slightly less contested one. Like Emma Stone, Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers consumed most of the early season air in this category, and like Lily Gladstone, Cillian Murphy won the SAG award recently, suggesting a changing of the winds. But where those two women are still neck and neck, Murphy gains the obvious advantage here for playing the titular character in a movie that could tie--or even break--the record for the most Oscars ever won by a movie. This isn't finished yet, and it wouldn't be totally shocking to see Giamatti pull out a win, but the atomic bomb is definitely in Cillian Murphy's court.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
Could Win: Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
Should Win: Colman Domingo-Rustin
Should Have Been Here: Andrew Scott-All of Us Strangers

Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
America Ferrera-Barbie
Jodie Foster-Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers

Probably the easiest call of the night, give or take international film. Randolph hasn't lost any film award in this category (outside of a couple smaller regional critics groups back in December), and certainly isn't looking to lose this one. If Emily Blunt wins here, then expect Oppenheimer to go for an unprecedented 13-for-13 streak.

Will Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Could Win: Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
Should Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Should Have Been Here: Julianne Moore-May December

Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown-American Fiction
Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things

Another easy call: Robert Downey Jr. continues his baffling (to me) march to the stage of the Dolby theater. I'm sure I won't be the only ones crossing my fingers and sending some positive Kenergy in hopes of a different outcome, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
Could Win: Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Should Win: Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Should Have Been Here: Charles Melton-May December

Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Another actual-ass race! In this category, you can pit the late-season ascendancy of Anatomy of a Fall against the early season comforts of The Holdovers. They're both in approximately the same place, as far as best picture momentum is concerned, and they're both about equally well loved. The Holdovers gains an advantage by virtue of the fact that it's in English, where Anatomy isn't (non-English language films have won for writing before, but it doesn't happen frequently), and Anatomy gains advantage by seeming to be the more complex of the two (...which should sound like a compliment). Another category where it'll be down to the wire. Can Past Lives capitalize on its rival's competition? Possibly, but also no.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could Win: The Holdovers
Should Win: May December
Should Have Been Here: Asteroid City

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

One of the toughest categories to predict! (Almost) anyone could win! Huzzah! Now, I know what I think you're thinking: if Oppenheimer is some Oscars juggernaut, how could this category be tough to predict? And you're not wrong--the easy answer is to assume that Oppenheimer commits a whole bunch of awards murder here just like it will in many other categories. That said, if you're looking to stir up a little trouble, Oppenheimer's writing is far from its most celebrated aspect (there was a question of whether it would even get a nomination here), and the category seems primed for the anti-Oppenheimer voters to find their voice. But to whose benefit? American Fiction feels like the (other) easy answer: it's a snappy and (kind of) contemporary satire that stakes its reputation on being quippy, clever, and directly engaging with the concept of language, aka the kind of movie they award here all the time. You could make similar claims about Poor Things--an expansive and well-loved adaptation with a very distinctive voice that focuses on concepts of language and communication. And finally, you have Barbie, a movie whose Oscar journey turned out rockier than expected. If voters are feeling penitent for having snubbed Gerwig in director, one easy way to show that contrition would be to give her an Oscar in screenplay. Plus, it's a strange, funny, and surprising movie that is clearly well-loved by the world, and its champions might carry the day for it here. Additionally, it's been classified as an original screenplay by all the other awards bodies, so we don't really have any data about how it will compete against these movies, since they've generally not been in the same category together. Still, if the Academy were desperate to reward Barbie, they would have started by, y'know, rewarding Barbie with nominations.
So there it is: pick Oppenheimer as the easy answer, or pick one of the other choices if you feel like a little chaos.

Will Win: Barbie (the heart wants what it wants, even when it's not likely)
Could Win: American Fiction
Should Win: Barbie
Should Have Been Here: Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Casual deathmatch here between Poor Things and Barbie. Which film's popularity brings it the win? Which film's wacky visuals feel more compelling to voters? Will Oppenheimer say 'I don't care, look, I made a town in New Mexico for your enjoyment,' pushing the ladies on the way to the podium? I honestly couldn't tell you. This category's a guess, and yours is as good as mine.

Will Win: Barbie
Could Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Barbie
Should Have Been Here: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Exact same arguments as the previous category, except with a little more general hand-waving. But where Oppenheimer has a valid chance in the previous category, you should only expect it to win here if it's going to tie or break the record number of Oscars won.

Will Win: Poor Things
Could Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
Should Have Been Here: Saltburn

Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning: Part One
Napoleon

Anarchy! Pure Anarchy! Go burn an effigy on your lawn and hope for the best! Which is to say that Oppenheimer's absence has created a vacuum in which any one of these nominees could win, though it's a likelier path for some than for others. Your smartest bests are Godzilla and The Creator, each of which are peddling a similar narrative of a spunky visual effects department with small budget turning out stellar work in a way that didn't punish the artists like other, large (Disney-er) movies might. (Granted, Godzilla's budget was about $55 million smaller than The Creator's, but they're also very different movies.) The Creator is hindered by the fact that not many people saw it, and even fewer people liked it, but it does look gorgeous in a way that wins awards. Godzilla has to contend with the fact that no non-English language film has ever won this category, and that some voters will surely feel voting for a Godzilla movie in any category. That said, it is, weirdly, the most prestigious movie up for the award, which definitely helps.
Five years ago, I'd have said that this was the perfect opportunity to reward Marvel with their first Visual Effects Oscar, but a lot has changed in the last five years, most pertinently how no one seems that excited about Marvel. So Guardians is a threat, by maybe a minor one. I've read that people's love for the Mission: Impossible franchise will swell and guide it to the win, but I can't help but think that if such a swell existed among Oscar voters, they might have given the franchise a nomination before this, its seventh movie. And Napoleon is also here. Good for you, Napoleon! You go, Napoleon. Someone get a time machine real quick and go explain to actual Napoleon what Oscars are and why he won't win any.

Will Win: Godzilla Minus One
Could Win: The Creator
Should Win: Godzilla Minus One
Should Have Been Here: Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Somehow, despite the constant Discourse, Maestro is still a threat to win this--let's chalk it up to the power of Kazu Hiro, one of the Academy's new and very favorite makeup artists. That said, the tides seem to be changing, and we might expect Emma Stone to surf into town on a board made of her own hair, winking at a clapping Bradley Cooper as Poor Things sneaks in for the win. At any rate, this award has paired not infrequently in the recent past with a lead acting award, so if you're predicting Emma Stone to win actress (like I am), then it seems silly not to expect a win here as well. Of course, you could just as easily use that argument to suggest that Oppenheimer pairs its best actor win with a makeup win, and you're not wrong.

Will Win: Poor Things
Could Win: Maestro
Should Win: Society of the Snow*
Should Have Been Here: Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

*I haven't seen Golda

Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Thing

Fair warning: we're now entering a whole stretch of categories that Oppenheimer will almost definitely win, and the only thing to do is call out what wild upset would happen if tonight got wild and upsetting. In this case, it's probably nothing. If Oppenheimer loses here, expect it to lose pretty much everywhere (...a phrase which in Oppenheimer's case means 'only win 3-5 Oscars instead of 9-12). Anatomy of a Fall would probably the one to push it off its throne here, but don't count on it.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: Priscilla

Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Another Oppenheimer category, and one as equally unlikely for it to lose. Poor Things or Killers as upsets? Maybe, but it's just as likely that a piece of Skynet falls down onto your summer camp.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon*
Should Have Been Here: Saltburn

*I haven't seen El Conde

Original Score
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Another Oppenheimer category, this one slightly more likely to upset. While I absolutely don't think it'll happen, it's possible that the Academy will want to reward Robbie Robertson, the composer of Killers of the Flower Moon who passed away shortly after the film was released. It's a possible narrative, and a stronger one than 'Poor Things likes fisheye lenses and so do I.' That said, the Academy might have shown just how much it thinks about posthumously honoring people film fans think they should honor with the 2020 Chadwick Boseman kerfuffle.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Should Have Been Here: Society of the Snow

Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning: Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Another Oppenheimer category, this one with the most compelling anti-Oppenheimer argument of all! It would be devastatingly silly to bet against Oppenheimer here, but The Zone of Interest is a well respected and admired movie whose sound design is arguably its most talked about and admired element. It would be a highly atypical choice, but plenty of braver people than I am predicting it. I'm gonna end up not predicting it, but part of me wishes I would

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Have Been Here: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Original Song
"The Fire Inside"-Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken"-Barbie
"It Never Went Away"-American Symphony
"What Was I Made For"-Barbie
"Whazhazhe"-Killers of the Flower Moon

Probably the only place where Barbie is more or less guaranteed an Oscar win? "What Was I Made For" probably has the edge here, spurred on by Billie Eilish's popularity (...also I kind of wonder if this will be the Academy's reaction to all the Barbie nomination backlash? Like, not to do anything about it but make sure that the song about Barbie wins instead of the song about Ken). Still, there is one bonkers but surprisingly plausible alternative. "It Never Went Away" and "The Fire Inside" are totally inconceivable as winners, which means that all non-Barbie voters might be voting for "Whazhazhe." That song has the additional perk of the 'honor the late Robbie Robertson' sentiment that might appear in original score. Granted, Robertson had nothing to do with the song and wouldn't receive an Oscar for it, but I do wonder whether the average voter will interrogate that. Anyway, this is the big upset that I'm not brave enough to predict but do think could happen. Then again, will the Academy send Barbie home Oscar-less? Probably not.

Will Win: "What Was I Made For"-Barbie
Could Win: "I'm Just Ken"-Barbie
Should Win: "What Was I Made For"-Barbie*
Should Have Been Here: "Camp Isn't Home"-Theater Camp

*I haven't seen The Fire Inside or American Symphony, but like

Animated Film
The Boy and the Heron
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams

I'm probably making this one more complicated than it needs to be--Spider-Man was a huge box office success, loved by critics, and part of one of the most popular mini-franchises going right now. So why does it feel like it's going to lose? Its reception didn't help--a very warm one, obviously, but one that got a little colder as the year progressed. If the Oscars had happened last June, Spider-Verse would have been up for picture, screenplay, and a handful of craft categories, but as the year progressed and people thought more about it, each of those possibilities fell away until only animated film was left, and even that looks tenuous. That said, is The Boy and the Heron, its direct competition, any less tenuous? Sure, it's Miyazaki's biggest hit ever in the US, it's well-reviewed, and he's all set to retire, which makes this the perfect time to give him one last Oscar. That said, when is Miyazaki not well reviewed? When is he not set to retire? The Academy has never seemed in that big a hurry to reward him (Spirited Away notwithstanding), and what would set them on that path for this, one of his stranger and more inscrutable movies? It's a toss-up. Both Spider-Verse and Boy and the Heron feel primed to fail, but none of the movies below them seem like they've even got a shot, so who's to say?

Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Could Win: The Boy and the Heron
Should Win: The Boy and the Heron*
Should Have Been Here: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

*I haven't seen Robot Dreams

International Film
Io Capitano-Italy
Perfect Days-Japan
The Teacher's Lounge-Germany
Society of the Snow-Spain
The Zone of Interest-The UK

Easiest call of the night. No movie nominated in both this category and best picture has ever lost, and The Zone of Interest has actual heat in other categories as well.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest-The UK
Could Win: Society of the Snow-Spain
Should Win: Abstain (I've only see The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow)

Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger

Year in and year out, this is the category I know the most about (and, unfortunately, struggle the most to care about). This year presents a real-ass apotheosis (and/or nadir) of my own apathy, as I haven't seen any of these nominees and feel particularly poorly qualified to work on them. Such as it is, 20 Days seems like the faraway frontrunner. I've heard whispers about Four Daughters but I kind of wonder if To Kill a Tiger would take that spot instead? Still, I'm not gonna pretend to be well-informed, so thank goodness there's an easy frontrunner for me to point at like I'm a pod person discovering someone.

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Could Win: Four Daughters
Should Win: abstain

And that's that! Currently, I've got Oppenheimer as the biggest winner with a paltry 8 wins--bizarre how that both feels like I'm under-predicting but would also make Oppenheimer one of the 20 most Oscar-winning films of all time. I don't think it'll break the all-time record, but 9 or 10 seems doable, which would certainly be close enough. 
Well, whatever happens, I'll still be here next year, glancing morosely at all the toys that the Academy didn't want to play with, and throwing some patented stink-eye at the ones that they did.

Thursday, March 7, 2024

Best of 2023, Part Three: Craft Categories

Well, shall we just say that a nefarious conspiracy exists to keep me from writing these at full power? And maybe rightfully so, since me writing movie lists at full power is (according to all my movie-related employers) something that no one is ready to see. 

While I wish I could deliver on the promised thousands of words singing the praises of the robot sounds in The Creator or the sunburn makeup in Society of the Snow, enough things have gotten in the way that I'll have to truncate things a bit (though, because it's me, 'truncated' still means something along the lines of 'like 38,000 words'). Because I procrastinated starting this series and because I'll be traveling soon, I've only had a few days to write everything and have to finish today. So there we have it! If anything below feels rushed, less spirited than usual, or carrying some wild-eyed scent of panic, it's because all of those things are true! Still, wild horses couldn't keep me from waxing poetic about the crafts categories (and they keep trying, despite my many strongly worded letters to the Horse Council). None of the movies you love, and none of the movie moments that have moved you, could exist without hundreds of artists and craftspeople working to bring them into reality. So let's talk about the important stuff! Anyone can applaud Robert Downey Jr. and then reflect ruefully on what they've done, but not everyone can spend the better part of two days deciding which clip from Napoleon best encapsulates its sonic approach to battlefield violence. And if there's one (very dumb) reason I was put on this earth, it's to do exactly that. So let's dive in!

(Note: all the pictures should enlarge if you click on them.)


5. Production Design

5. Wonka


Frozen cities! Wonky confections! Human trafficking, but in technicolor!

4. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes


Evil Laboratories! War-torn dystopias! Lavish sets for all your kid-killing needs!

3. Asteroid City


Meticulous pastel desert oases! Furious right angled wastelands for little green men to float over!

2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse


Exciting and distinctive world for every character, some of which are the most amazing things you've ever seen in your stupid, hollow life!

1. Barbie

Your childhood memories brought to person-sized life and ready to think about death! Aqua warned us about this!

Honorable mention: The Creator

Costume Design

5. Passages

All the see-through knitwear you need to ruin someone's life with!

4. Bottoms


High fashion for anyone's who's ever wondered what it'd look like to fall clothes-first into a thrift store and then beat up a football player!

3. Saltburn


Lifestyles of the rich and famous! Clothes to consume their various fluids in!

2. Barbie


More pink than you can handle, spiritually! So many different eye-popping fashions that you will eventually give up on having eyes!

1. Poor Things


Architectural gowns birthed by the end of the world! Obscene power-clashing! The only wedding dress you'll ever want to wear (to the wedding you don't want to go to)!

Honorable mention: Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
(or Killers of the Flower Moon--what stacked category this is this year)

Visual Effects

5. Oppenheimer


All practical effects! Atoms and explosions!

4. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves


Wacky creatures! Massive cities and underground hellscapes! All the things your dnd group could totally do, probably, if they really wanted to, but just leave it alone, ok!

3. Napoleon


Brutal battles! The even more brutal process of walking slowly into 19th century Russia! Lots of ways to watch horses die! An upsetting lack of gifs online that I could use here!

2. The Creator


Robot-human hybrids and all the various ways they can be ripped limb from limb! Evangelion-style floating death platforms! Ethical filming practices (for VFX artists, if not for the aforementioned robots)!

1. Godzilla Minus One

(source)

The meanest Godzilla since 1954! City-sized destruction on a human scale! Spectacular images on a tiny budget!

Honorable mention: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Makeup and Hairstyling

5. Barbie


Did staring longingly at your Barbie's slovenly and unkempt hair inspire you to cosmetology school to prevent such an atrocity from ever happening again? If so, you might have made this movie!

4. Poor Things


Long hair! Rebuilding Willem Dafoe from scratch (again)! Someone probably had to apply foundation to Mark Ruffalo's skyward ass!

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Human-animal hybrids (who all perish in a world-sized apocalypse)! New aliens! Will Poulter's entire body is painted gold, for some reason, but why look a gift golden horse in the mouth!

2. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Clever character details for all the leads! Long-dead pranksters who want to share their zombie humor! The entire zoo near you came alive, started walking on two legs, and wants you to roll initiative!

1. Society of the Snow


The very grim process of spending months on a snowy mountain! The even more grim process of dying there! I don't even have jokes, it's just really strong and upsetting work!

Honorable mention: Cocaine Bear

Film Editing

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Priscilla
2. Oppenheimer
1. Killers of the Flower Moon

Man, I am so bad at describing what I like about film editing. Clearly I love giving some kind of organic and fluid shape to unbelievably large projects, which applies to everything here but Priscilla, which also does that in its own way. Points to Spider-Man for stringing together more images than can be legally processed by the human eye, to Anatomy and Priscilla for fashioning their own prisons out of time and other people's glances, and to Oppenheimer for managing to be watchable (and intense) across the decades. But the obvious win is Killers, for turning hours of footage into a 3 1/2 experience that never once makes you conscious of its runtime.

Honorable mention: Fallen Leaves

Cinematography

5. Cassandro

Dappled sunsets! Flattering key lighting for slapping other guys around a ring! The aquamarine romance of sneaking off to your married lover at twilight!

4. The Eight Mountains

(source)

Using mountains and white light to frame your friendship (or more?), your father, and your flight from reality!

3. Fallen Leaves

Colors and shadows for everyone who ever wondered whether purgatory would share colors with the Easter aisle at CVS!

2. Saltburn


Sparkling facades! Divine decadence! Framing and lighting Jacob Elordi like a sunbathing-based demigod, because why not!

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

Worlds turning from welcome to ugly in a heartbeat! Characters isolated in their own heads! Flights of nature and fancy that never feel quite how they might!

Honorable mention: Oppenheimer

Original Score

5. The Boy and the Heron-feels cheap to just say "it's Joe Hisiashi," but that's kind of the case? Hisiashi doing what he does best, which in this case is cinematic excellence.

4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse-like the movie itself, the score is moments of stillness punctuated by total, skin-peeling chaos. Very few moments in the movies this year got me more turnt than when the linked track below suddenly switches between those registers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIl_VaWGyGE&list=PLRW80bBvVD3XsSk0eXKIQW_kZMMsQtlz-&index=2

3. Poor Things-puts the 'grand' in grand guignol, going for broke in the most expected-but-right ways (like the organ/voice fanfare below) and some not so expected ones (the rest of the movie, which is largely atonal burbling).

2. Society of the Snow-does any movie this year owe more to its score than Society of the Snow? Giacchino's work builds an entire world (or, uh, society) in the wilderness, toggling between stomach-churning harmonic violence and sculptural melodies carving space into the air.

1. Oppenheimer-the obvious choice, but sometimes that's the right one. Ludwig Goransson's proved time and again that he can hollow out a unique space in which a movie can live, and here's no exception. Would any of Oppenheimer's (many) montages work without his sweeping rhythms, or could the Trinity test even exist without him hiring a whole roomful of people to scrape their fingers against a chalkboard? I'm not sure that they would or could.

Sound Mixing

(note: for first time I'm linking clips that demonstrate what I dig about the movie in question's sound, because how have I been doing this for 15 years and it's only just now occurred to me to do that?)

5. Godzilla Minus One-the holy repulsiveness of an entire city coming apart at once, the whisper-thin tension of a monster casually swimming behind your boat, and sheer horror of everything that's covered in silence.
(the clip has an awful watermark all over it, but hey, it's supposed to be showcasing sound anyway)

4. Society of the Snow-lotta horrors this year! This one, specifically, in which the movie uses every trick in the book to create something immersive so that the audience can be like oh, hey, it turns out I am fine not being immersed in snow-related disasters.

3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse-like with so many elements in this movie--the design, the editing, the score--the sound mix takes an unimaginable number of moving parts and cajoles it into something resembling comprehensibility.

2. Oppenheimer-I'm sure we'll all get tired of praising Oppenheimer eventually, but it deserves a spot on this list just for that *one* moment (linked below), where, instead of doing the expected, the whole world disappears except the sounds of disbelieving breaths. 

1. The Zone of Interest-difficult to explain or display (or make a joke about) what qualifies this movie for this spot, but it's the right choice. Two hours of something dying somewhere inside your inner ear while everyone smiles at you.
(it's a tiny clip, but it gives you a tiny idea)

Honorable mention: The Boy and the Heron

Sound Editing

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem-is it possible that I'm just easily impressed by the soundscapes of citywide destruction? Maybe, but like I also think weird mutant sounds are fun too.
(some spoilers here)

4. Napoleon-hard to convey this in one clip rather than by watching a three hour movie but Napoleon deserves credit for crafting a sound environment that we're pretty used to by now (battle scenes) and making them sound wetter, punchier, more chaotic. When was the last time a movie cannon made your diaphragm resonate?
(theoretically spoilers here too, if whether or not Napoleon conquered the known world hasn't been spoiled for you yet)

3. Godzilla Minus One-look, I'm a simple person: if someone--anyone--releases a kaiji movie, my eyes turn into little hearts and I spend the next three years thinking about getting to make sound effects.

2. The Creator-maybe it's easy to see my genre biases here (at least for sound/sound editing) but listen to it! Click that link and listen to that scene and tell me this movie doesn't desire a pile of awards for giving all those elements such unique and expressive voices.

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse-a glorious exercise in maximalism. The sheer amount of work alone (just watch that clip below knowing that every character or object you see on screen needed a sound, and literally every sound needed to be created by a hard working sound team) would put this in the running, but the quality carried along in this massive avalanche just helps it grab the top spot.
(some spoilers here as well)

Honorable mention: Society of the Snow

Original Song

5. "Spinning Globe"-The Boy and the Heron-I'm sorry, did you say weepy bagpipes backing a power ballad playing at the end of a Ghibli movie? I'm not made of stone.

4. "Wings of Time"-Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves-in a very similar vein, did you say a Blue Öyster Cult-esque jam session full of good vibes and power chords playing at the end of a DnD movie? However strong you thought I was, subtract this from that amount and find your new total.

3. "Camp Isn't Home"-Theater Camp-ok look, I will try and find some strength somewhere, but did you say a big-hearted summary broadway-style closing number that unites all the main characters in their love for their art and each other and also has a key change into the final chorus? Hope my fainting couch was made in Australia, because I am going down under.

2. "I'm Just Ken"-Barbie-ok so I may be knocked out on my fainting couch, but did someone say a power ballad parody that for some reason plays during a bizarro-world restaging of D-Day sung by Ryan Gosling that includes a dance-off with Simu Liu? Hope someone has a flexible life insurance policy out on me, because I have been dead for several days.

1. "What Was I Made For"-Barbie-ok I may be dead, but did someone say a teary-eyed, piano-heavy Billie Eilish number whose primary purpose is to give us a chance to look at the people in the audience and silently mouth "I love you" while we gently clasp hands, finding for one moment a common resonance on which our constituent molecules can vibrate? Reader, I may already dead, but my body is has now totally liquified and is melting into the earth to nourish the worms and gnomes and whatever.

Honorable mention: "Can't Catch Me Now"-The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes


And that's it for this years lists, vaguely truncated and lackluster as they might have been! I'm running a hot streak of doing this in a way/energy level that doesn't totally thrill me, but I am on an even hotter streak of being glad that I did them, and feeling grateful for everyone who stopped by to join me in some movie-related suffering. Thanks for your support, your time, and your mildly interested eyeballs! I'll be back today or tomorrow (or Saturday? no idea) with final Oscar predictions, but that's it for the big lists.

For those playing along at home, these were the movies that showed up the most on my lists:

Barbie-10
Killers of the Flower Moon-8
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse-7
Saltburn-6
Godzilla Minus One-6

As for wins, Killers of the Flower Moon dominated, taking Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, and Cinematography, with only Barbie being able to claim more than one award (Supporting Actor, Production Design, and Original Song).

And that's it! As always, thanks much for reading!

Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Best of 2023, Part Two: Acting, Directing, Screenplays



If we're being real, the hardest thing I've ever had to experience--and, by proxy, surely one of the hardest things you'll ever have to experience--is that I'm just no good at being fun and compelling while writing about all the big, flashy movie categories--acting, directing, and writing. Now I've won a Pulitzer (and expect a Nobel, as well as some modest property on Mars) for the wild epiphanies I've had about, say, what the fish sounds in Avatar mean for human civilization or why the big collars on the costumes Eiko Ishioka designs are the most important invention known to humanity (yeah, vaccines are cool, I guess, but have you ever seen a bird wearing a hat designed by Eiko Ishioka? It'd rearrange your priorities too). And if you want to be here to watch me collect my Nobel/deed for my tract of land on Mars, to which I am only inviting Eiko Ishioka's birds, then feel free to pop in tomorrow where I'll be writing all about the movies crafts I dug during the 2023 cinematic year.

But alas, we find ourselves stuck in today, which means I am gonna continue my newfound love of (sort of) streamlining. I'll do quick writeups for the best of the year in acting, directing, and writing, and with any luck, both you and I will get some kind of respite from the hours-long punishment of yesterday's best of the year post. Hooray! Looks like that double hand transplant I was planning on will have to wait for another day (...probably Thursday).

So without further ado (I ran out of ado days ago and honestly don't know where to get more), let's dive in!

Note: I'll include some clips for the acting categories, but there won't be any rhyme or reason to who gets them or why--just whatever I feel like, whatever can be found on youtube, whenever I feel like it.


Best Actress
5. Margot Robbie-Barbie
4. Greta Lee-Past Lives
3. Carey Mulligan-Maestro
2. Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall
1. Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon

Honorable mention: Emma Stone-Poor Things

Strong lineup, totally defined by balance: Margot Robbie embodying an ideal and a real person in Barbie, Greta Lee wanting the past and not wanting it at the same time in Past Lives, or Sandra Hüller keeping her thoughts to herself, until she doesn't in Anatomy. I don't have any love in my heart for Maestro, but who am I to deny the perfect 50/50 split of enthusiasm and weariness that Carey Mulligan brings to it, every moment in that movie worth watching belonging to her? It was tempting to give Hüller the top spot for any one of her broken silences, frustrated stares, or quiet (and loud) defenses, but this year has to belong to Lily Gladstone, who can say more with the slightest movement in her face or hands than most performers could shout.

Actor
5. Barry Keoghan-Saltburn
4. Colman Domingo-Rustin
3. Leonardo Dicaprio-Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Gael Garcia Bernal-Cassandro
1. Andrew Scott-All of Us Strangers

Honorable Mention: Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer

Came this close to having Murphy in the top five, but what can I say? I can never turn down whatever wacky goblin antics Barry Keoghan has cooked up for us. Domingo carries his entire movie in his fast and fluid hands, elevating a pretty paint-by-numbers biopic, and Dicaprio gives arguably the best performance of his career as a particularly stupid and violent bulldog who can't quite wrap his head around his own ugliness. It was extremely tempting award the top spot to Bernal for the career-defining joy, energy, and blank-screen hurt of his eyes in Casssandro. Still, the right choice is Andrew Scott's (literally) haunted work in All of Us Strangers, a man (and performer) constantly thrown into impossible situations and doing his best to pretend that they don't matter that much.

Supporting Actress
5. Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
4. Taraji P. Henson-The Color Purple
3. Rosamund Pike-Saltburn
2. Rachel McAdams-Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.
1. Julianne Moore-May December

Honorable mention: Jodie Foster-Nyad

Absolute treasure trove of a category, with Foster or Catalina Saavedra in Rotting in the Sun or Hong Chau in Showing Up or Scarlett Johansson in Asteroid City all worthy contenders that could have easily cracked the top five in a weaker year. But I'm pleased with these choices, from Randolph's too strong and too brittle by half work in The Holdovers, Henson's brass and verve, as though ported in from a different universe, in The Color Purple, to Pike committing to the bit way harder than anyone else in Saltburn, to absolutely ridiculous results. McAdams is stellar, exuding this lived-in warmth and a tinge of regret that's head and shoulders above anything else in her(already great) career. But the top performance here (and probably my performance of the year) has to be Julianne Moore--a totally impossible, upsetting, infantilized and infantilizing chimaera of a woman, hiding behind a pastry or a pair of sunglasses.

Supporting Actor
5. Jacob Elordi-Saltburn
4. Jamie Bell-All of Us Strangers
3. Charles Melton-May December
2. Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon

Honorable mention: Josiah Cross-A Thousand and One

Weirdly hunky category this year. I love Elordi's gormless and brutal niceness in Saltburn, and the fact that I'm arguably the biggest Jamie Bell fan in the world (hopefully) doesn't change the fact that the tenderness he brings to All of Us Strangers transforms every scene he's in. It's deeply stupid that Charles Melton--former Riverdale hunk, current star on the apparent rise--was left off the Oscars shortlist, but I'm not gonna make that mistake. De Niro is great (something he has rediscovered how to do in the past few years, which is neat), but come on, is any of that (k)enough to take #1 from Ryan Gosling? One of the funniest and most creative performances we've all seen in a hot minute.

Director
5. Andrew Haigh-All of Us Strangers
4. Greta Gerwig-Barbie
3. Takashi Yamazaki-Godzilla Minus One
2. Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson-Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
1. Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon

Honorable mention: Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall

Lots to love and admire here: Andrew Scott making the simultaneously loveliest and queasiest family reunion movie you've ever seen, Greta Gerwig marshalling actual armies, finding a way to make a Barbie movie tonally plausible while still intentionally ridiculous, and Takashi Yamazaki conjuring the scariest Godzilla (and the most effective cast) in 70 years. It would have been make me-related awards history by giving this award to an animated movie for the first time--and the Spider-Verse crew would have deserved it for bringing a movie of that scale and ambition over the finish line at all, much less with as much pep and panache as they managed. But Scorsese crafted a real work for the ages--a three and a half hour long movie that never makes the audience feel its weight, a movie about deeply evil men that never lets the audience tire of them or misunderstand them, an immaculately crafted epic that never forgets its own sense of scale.

Original Screenplay
5. Rotting in the Sun
4. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Barbie
2. May December
1. Asteroid City

Honorable mention: The Holdovers

Totally bizarre and unique array of movies here, being rewarded for their camp and their hideousness (May December, Rotting in the Sun), their high-concept buffoonery and wirework world-building (Barbie), or the labyrinths they build out of tension and suspicion (Anatomy of a Fall). But hey, why not give it to Asteroid City, a movie that does camp, high-concept buffoonery, world-building, labyrinths, and some real beauty to go along with it?

Adapted Screenplay
5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
4. All of Us Strangers
3. A Knock at the Cabin
2. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.
1. Killers of the Flower Moon

Honorable mention: Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

The Turtles return! Cannot tell if my awards have gone a little wonky this year because I missed most of the indie/international fare, and as such am filling the lists with what I readily get online, or if the big mainstream stuff this year just hit all the right marks. Either way, I'm happy to see Turtles, Knock, and Margaret represent the kind of adventurous and interesting studio fare that should still be getting shot out of Hollywood like cheap merchandise out of a t-shirt cannon. And I suppose Killers qualifies as well, in some regard, if only because a not-studio (Apple) shelled out an incredible amount of money to support something as thoughtful, quiet, and inquisitive as this.


And that's that! Once again, my promises of brevity were horrible, horrible lies. Honestly, I've been doing this for about 15 years now--at this point, if I tell you that I'm going to write something quick and streamlined and you believe me, that's as much on you as it is on me. Next year, one of us should probably hire someone to sit on top of my computer until I've cried myself to sleep and the possibility of posting movie lists is long gone. But in the mean time, what are your thoughts? I'll be back tomorrow to wrap up the best of lists with the crafts categories, and then again on Thursday to run through my Osar predictions.