Oscar Predictions 2025: The Warner Brothers are Beating Each Other Up with Golden Statuettes, Who Will Stop Them (is it Jacob Elordi?)

While I would normally start with some long and florid introduction about the Oscars that tried to capture the spirit of the year, how the Academy perceived itself, how I felt about them, etc., this year I am going to have to forgo all that (much to the lamentation of all, I presume). As my last week has been singularly exhausting (having included such fun little activities including, but not limited to, driving a U-Haul across the country just yesterday), my day is full of non-Oscar things to do, and the ceremony starts in about nine hours, I find myself in the unenviable position of just trying to get these out by press-time at all. I've never failed to post Oscar predictions since 2005, and have often bragged that no force on Earth would stop me. Well, the majority of forces on Earth right now seem to be doing their best, but I am gonna persevere, albeit in a much more curtailed version than usual. So if you usually come here for the jokes and metaphors and wordy wind-ups, sorry! I will inflict double the normal amount of those on you next year, I promise. For now, I've got about thirty minutes to wrap up this whole process, and will have to hustle.

So here we go! I'm at a decade-low for having seen the nominees (I haven't seen nominees from a full ten categories, and haven't seen any from four of them--curse the shorts!), so I may be less informed than usual, but when has being informed ever helped me? I tend to predict more for fun than for accuracy. There are other websites out there crunching the numbers to help you win your Oscar pool; I'm here to light a little candle for Jacob Elordi and then kick some sand in the face of reason.

Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

The overarching narrative of the whole evening--one that I will giddily reiterate for nine of the next eighteen categories--is Sinners vs. One Battle After Another, A Warner Brothers-dominated steel cage mage between two wildly ambitious, unique, and politically timely movies. These two will be trying to score hits on each other all night, and there probably won't be too many other movies that will be able to pull a win over them in any category. That's doubly true here--it'd be almost unthinkable to see any other nominee win this category. But which one takes it? One Battle has the Critics Choice award, the Directors Guild award, the Producers Guild award, and the British Acadamy award--and no movie that's ever won all those has ever lost the Oscar. ...That said, Sinners has the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award, the Writers Guild award, and the American Cinema Editors award--and no movie that's won all of those has ever lost the Oscar, either. So either way, one historic streak is about to be broken. Sinners did just set the record for the most nominated film of all time, but Oscar has a funny habit this century of not giving the big prize to its most nominated movie. And One Battle swept all the early awards and seems to have a full head of steam coming into the final night. That said, Sinners has won the most recent awards and feels like the movie that's on the tip of everyone's tongue right now.

In other words? It's a toss-up. There's no historical precedent for a stoner-action-satire-political thriller and a vampire-musical-historical drama becoming dualing Oscar juggernauts, so flip a coin, or go with your heart.

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
Should Have Been Here: Weapons

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler-Sinners
Josh Safdie-Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier-Sentimental Value
Chloe Zhao-Hamnet

You can mostly copy-paste the argument from best picture to this category as well, with the caveat that Anderson/One Battle has mostly swept the precursor awards. He's got the momentum and he's a hugely loved and respected director who's never been recognized with an Oscar. As such, he's the frontrunner, but don't discount Ryan Coogler if Sinners goes for a sweep.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Could Win: Ryan Coogler-Sinners
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Should Have Been Here: Danny Boyle-28 Years Later

Actress
Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson-Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve-Sentimental Value
Emma Stone-Bugonia

Jessie Buckley wins in an avalanche in the easiest category of the night. Everyone arguing for Rose Byrne's critical wins or Kate Hudson's late-blooming sentimental narrative are silly and should feel silly,

Will Win: Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
Could Win: Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Should Win: Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You*
Should Have Been Here-Zhao Tao-Caught by the Tides

*I haven't seen Song Sung Blue

Actor
Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme
Leonardo Dicaprio-One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
Ethan Hawke-Blue Moon
Wagner Moura-The Secret Agent

From the easiest race to call to the most difficult--hard to remember another above-the-line Oscar category in my lifetime where literally anyone could win. And I've seen everyone of these men predicted as a winner! So we'll just go alphabetically. Chalamet: he was the frontrunner for the longest time, but all the wind has gone out of Marty Supreme's awards sails, and he's still awfully young to win (at 30, he'd be the second youngest winner in this category ever). Plus, he's kind of come across as a dick lately (sorry Timmy, I love you but it's true). It's difficult to pull off an (almost) unprecedented Oscar win when people don't want to love you. That said, he does have a ton of momentum and this is the only place to award a well-liked best picture nominee with nine nods to its name. Dicaprio: arguably the least likely, but who knows? People love and respect him, and One Battle could be a huge sweeper. Jordan: this felt impossible only a month ago, but Jordan's Screen Actors Guild win shows a big momentum shift. Plus, he's coming across as the anti-Chalamet, seeming very humble and down to earth on the campaign trail. He's the kind of actor other actors love to see succeed, and Sinners could become a sweeper as well. Hawke: it hurts him that Blue Moon is the only non-best picture nominee in the field (it's becoming increasingly difficult for movies not nominated for best picture to win an Oscar in any category), but he's also a beloved character actor who's never gotten his due. He could be a shocking (or not so shocking) dark horse. And finally, Moura: as I said in my predictions post, people can be absolutely feral for Brazilian cinema, and Moura is one of its most famous figures. The Secret Agent is really highly regarded, too. Am I brave enough to pick Moura above Chalamet and Jordan? I'll find out in about five seconds!

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan-Sinners (it turns out that I'm not)
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme
Should Win: Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
Should Have Been Here: Abou Sangaré-Souleymane's Story

Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning-Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas-Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan-Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku-Sinners
Teyana Taylor-One Battle After Another

You can easily rule out both the Sentimental Value ladies, lovely as their performances are--they won't be triumphing here tonight. The other three have about an equal chance between them. Madigan is the lone nomination for her film, and what's more, it's a horror performance in a straight horror movie, which almost never win. That said, she won the most recent televised award (SAG), has a ton of love behind her, and has the additional narrative of having the third longest wait between her first and second nominations (39 years!). Mosaku doesn't have any big Oscar clips, but she did win the second most recent televised award (British Academy), has the biggest role for a woman in a movie largely dominated by men, and could easily benefit from a Sinners sweep (Swinners?). That said, Taylor could do the same with a One Battle sweep and leaves a huge impression on the audience--but her screen time is limited to the first half-hour of an almost three-hour film. It's a real toss-up.

Will Win: Wunmi Mosaku-Sinners
Could Win: Amy Madigan-Weapons
Should Win: Amy Madigan-Weapons
Should Have Been Here: Nina Hoss-Hedda

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro-One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi-Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo-Sinners
Sean Penn-One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard-Sentimental Value

Another exceptionally volatile category--and isn't it fun that almost all of the big categories are so wild this year? It's a real rarity, and I'm here for it. I think it's probably safe to rule out Benicio Del Toro, but I suppose you never know--he did win lots of early-season critics awards, after all. Conventional wisdom suggests this will go to Sean Penn, who won the two most recent awards (SAG and the British Academy), is a hugely memorable part of the best picture frontrunner, and plays a villain, which frequently wins in this category. That said, he hasn't been campaigning much and has been pretty vocal in his dislike of the Oscars and awards in general. Is that something that will actually work against him in real life, or just on the internet? Stellan Skarsgard was was the perceived frontrunner for the first half of this awards season, and could still easily prevail: he's a well-liked veteran actor getting his first nomination in his 70s for a popular and heavily-nominated film. That said, Delroy Lindo has that exact same argument, pretty much, and has been eating up a lot of the conversation in this category lately--and Sinners is much stronger than Sentimental Value as well. For some dopey reason though, I can't shake the dizzy notion that Jacob Elordi might win this. He did surprise at the Critics' Choice awards, and is pretty universally what people have praised most about Frankenstein. On the other hand, he is very young (28 years old) and pretty, and while Oscar loves picking women who are young and pretty, it kind of hates men who are young and pretty. Still, though--in a category this close, shocking wins often come out of nowhere. I don't think I'm brave enough to pick him, but if he does win, everyone please remember that I kind of called it here first.

Will Win: Jacob Elordi-Frankenstein (screw it, no guts, no glory, as the famous reanimated corpse once said before throwing a kid into a pond)
Could Win: Sean Penn-One Battle After Another
Should Win: Stellan Skarsgard-Sentimental Value

Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
It Was Just An Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners

Those tired of all the intrigue may take a second here to catch their breath. Sinners wins this, barring some huge shock, as voters will surely want to see Ryan Coogler go home with a win, even if he loses picture and director, and Sinners is nothing if not wildly original. I guess Sentimental Value could rally, but if I'm not predicting Skarsgard to win in a much easier category, I can hardly predict that here, can I?

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: Sentimental Value
Should Win: Sinners
Should Have Been Here: On Becoming a Guinea Fowl

Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams

Another easy category. Similar to Ryan Coogler and Sinners, voters will want to see Paul Thomas Anderson with an Oscar in his hands, and this is the place to guarantee that it happens, whatever happens in the top categories.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Hamnet
Should Win: Bugonia
Should Have Been Here: Wake Up Dead Man
Should Have Been Here: Andrew Scott-Blue Moon

Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners

For three of next four categories, the argument will be the same: can Frankenstein beat Sinners? And for three of the next four categories, the answer will also be the same: probably, yes! Sinners could sweep, but my money's on the respect for Frankenstein's lavish designs and visuals to win out

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Marty Supreme
Should Have Been Here: No Other Choice

Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners

Category two of three for Frankenstein vs. Sinners. How wild is that Avatar nomination here, huh? Having watched a bunch of videos in my post-nomination befuddlement, I at least get it now, even if I wouldn't have chosen it myself. Still, one of the wackier nominations of my Oscar-viewing life.

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Frankenstein
Should Have Been Here: One of Them Days

Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World: Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners

Most everyone will tell you that this category is cut and dry, and they're probably right: the Avatar series more or less exists at this point to make visual effects innovations, and each of the previous two has won this category. ...However. The Academy may be experiencing franchise fatigue. The first Avatar was nominated for nine Oscars, including picture and director, and won four, the second was nominated for four Oscars, including picture, and won one, and this one is only nominated for two. Will they feel like it's all too much the same? Secondly, it's actually incredibly rare for a movie nominated in best picture and this category to lose here to something not nominated for best picture--it's only happened twice in Academy history, and one of those times was a really wacky year. Which is to say that F1 and Sinners, statistically speaking, should be your winners. That said, they both feature supporting effects (i.e. things that blend into the background more than calling attention to themselves as big visual effects moments), which almost never win in this category. So you should probably choose Avatar if you're not feeling silly, but like I dunno, maybe silly is the right vibe here.

Will Win: F1 (man, I am gonna get destroyed in my Oscar competition this year, I am making all silly choices)
Could Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash*
Should Have Been Here: Predator: Badlands

*I haven't seen The Lost Bus

Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister

Category three of Frankenstein vs. Sinners. How fun is it that--for once!--this branch has recognized horror in a big way! Three of the nominees this year are from the genre arguably most indebted to makeup work, but most commonly overlooked by the Academy.

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Frankenstein*
Should Have Been Here: Weapons

*maybe a dumb claim to make, as I've seen neither Kokuho nor The Smashing Machine

Film Editing
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners

This category can go exactly three ways. If One Battle After Another wins, then things have gone as expected; this will help it on the road to best picture, but it's not guaranteed. If Sinners wins, expect a Sinners sweep. If F1 wins, accept that the Academy boys could once again not resist playing with their little cars.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: F1
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Should Have Been Here: Final Destination: Bloodlines

Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams

Pure One Battle vs. Sinners here. It's tempting to say that whichever movie wins this wins best picture, but I'm not sure it's as simple as that. Sinners had the early momentum, One Battle has the current momentum, and it's anybody's guess who triumphs. Fingers crossed for Sinners: I don't know that it would actually be my #1 pick, but this category is the last category left that has yet to be won by a woman, and Sinners is the closest anyone has ever come to breaking that streak. Now watch Train Dreams come from behind and take it all!

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: One Battle After Another (but I'm pulling for Sinners)
Should Have Been Here: Happyend

Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners

Clearly Sinners' battle to lose, right? Its music is both stellar and integral to the plot, and the Academy is desperately in love with Sinners composer Ludwig Göransson.

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
Should Have Been Here: 28 Years Later

Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirat

A duel between F1 and Sinners. What wins out? A music-heavy film (which Oscar loves in this category) that's also got action and horror, or a movie about big fast cars (which Oscar loves in this category)? Sinners' pull in other categories might see it to a win here, but Oscar really loves car movies here.

Will Win: F1
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Sirat
Should Have Been Here: If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Original Song
"Dear Me"-Diane Warren: Relentless
"Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
"I Lied to You"-Sinners
"Sweet Dreams of Joy"-Viva Verdi
"Train Dreams"-Train Dreams

The chart-topping, Grammy-nominated earworm juggernaut probably takes this, but are we underestimating how much people love Sinners' music? And this song is the centerpiece of its most talked about moment. Still, hard to turn down all those K-Pop power chords.

Will Win: "Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: "I Lied to You"-Sinners
Should Win: "Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
Should Have Been Here: "Pale Pale Moon"-Sinners

Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners

And how, do you ask, can we predict an award that's never been given before? We guess! We might assume that this just goes to the eventual best picture winner, but I think Sinners' huge ensemble of strong character actors will be enough to carry it across the finish line, even if it doesn't win best picture.

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Marty Supreme
Should Have Been Here: Weapons

Animated Film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie, or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

Almost unimaginable for KPop Demon Hunters to lose here--it was a huge hit and a cultural phenomenon, and none of the other movies made much of a mark. The past couple years have seen the big mainstream favorite falling to a smaller indie darling, but I don't think any of the smaller movies have the juice to unseat Netflix here.

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: Zootopia 2
Should Win: Little Amélie, or the Character of Rain*
Should Have Been Here: abstain (I haven't seen enough animated movies this year)

*I haven't seen Arco

International Film
It Was Just An Accident-France
The Secret Agent-Brazil
Sentimental Value-Norway
Sirat-Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab-Tunisia

I toyed with the idea of the bombing of Iran being enough to take Jafar Panahi's It Was Just an Accident to an unexpected win, but no movie that's ever been nominated for best picture has lost here (except to another best picture nominee), so this is between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. With nine nominations to The Secret Agent's four, Sentimental Value sure looks like the on-paper favorit,e but see above re: Brazilian cinema and passionate fans.

Will Win: Sentimental Value-Norway
Could Win: The Secret Agent-Brazil
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident-France*
Should Have Been Here: No Other Choice-South Korea

*I haven't seen The Voice of Hind Rajab

Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor

I have spent way too long doing this and (embarrassingly) haven't seen any of these, so I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions. The Perfect Neighbor has the momentum, Mr. Nobody Against Putin is most topical, and my sister said Come See Me in the Good Light was really good, so there you are.

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: I haven't seen any of these, because I am a garbage person

And that's that! I currently have Sinners and One Battle After Another dominating the night, winning half of the categories. I am also really doubling down on dumb choices (Frankenstein winning more Oscars than One Battle After Another? Seriously?), but I wouldn't have it any other way.

Well, whatever happens, it'll be fun to watch--and because I am so behind schedule, we'll get to watch it in a few hours! Until then, we can embrace the joy of not knowing. 

Best of 2025, Part Three: Craft Categories

 Movies are like houses: they are very expensive and almost everyone under the age of 40 will never have one of their own. 

...Let me try again. Movies are like houses! in that Tom Cruise is going to do his absolute best to die in one. 

Once more, with feeling. MOVIES are like HOUSES! I would like to be in one of my own, maybe with Jamie Bell or something!

Ok, but seriously. Movies...are like houses. In that they take years of hard work and effort to make from dozens or even hundreds of people, depending on the size of the house, and everyone' contributions are vital, even if the work the plumbers and roofers and tilers do often gets overshadowed by the architects and interior designers. We all love movies (or if you don't, you need to leave this space immediately, go to a theater, and stay there until you agree), but none of the movies we love could exist without the efforts of the artists and craftspeople below the line pouring their lives into their work. So today, in thanks, I'm going to wax effusive about all the work whose creators will never be interviewed on a talk show but deserve to be anyway. Crafts are great, and the only thing I love more than being surprised by fun and innovative craft choices in movies is writing too many words celebrating them. (This is not actually true, but I am trying to turn a phrase.) So let's dive in!

(Note: all pictures should enlarge if you click on them.)

Production Design

5. Hedda

(source)
Tastefully opulent interiors for the newly about-to-be-destitute! A wild assembly of wallpapers that look like they've benn copied from your dreams (or nightmares)! Decadent gilded cages to psychologically torture your secret lover in!

4. Sinners

(source)
Abandoned mills become homespun juke joints! The 1930s delta finds new, undead life! Vampires do their best to cover both locations in lots of blood!

3. No Other Choice

(source)
Plants like architecture and architecture like plants! Comparing your mansion to the mansions of your job competitors in hopes that yours is a little nicer! The perfect greenhouse for doing corpse topiary in!

2. Frankenstein

(source)
Mad scientists' brains turned inside out! Intricate, period-accurate(ish) props for all your crimes against humanity needs! Like if a Hot Topic goth teen's dizziest daydreams became manifest and then Jacob Elordi ripped someone's jaw off inside them!

1. Marty Supreme

(source)

(source)

An immaculate vision of 1950s New York that feelslike both accurate reconstruction and hazy memory! Rooms and veneers as regal and dilapidated as the faces that inhabit them! 'Immersion' is kind of an overused buzzword but it exists to laud movies as immersive as this one!

Honorable mention: Fantastic Four: The First Steps

Costume Design

5. The Ballad of Wallis Island

(source)

Cozy and ornate knitwear, my true achilles heel! Bright, character-defining colors and the drab beige coats to match them! A collection of some of the worst t-shirts on earth!

4. The Ugly Stepsister

(source)

Gowns like traps, or jokes, or both! Silk fantasias spun by worms who are in the process of eating your dead father! Ornamentation for all the horrible and terrified birds in your life!

3. Sinners

(source)

Snazzy Capone-era suits and mustard vests! Gorgeous afterlife finery! All the reds, whites, and blues you could wish for, and all the blood and violence that accompanies it! 

2. One of Them Days

(source)

(source)

Everyday glamour and donation bin coteure! Confident duds to have a terrible day in! The neon green jumpsuit that launched a thousand ships!

1. Frankenstein

(source)

Gowns like hallucinations! Outfits like mapped onto and inside your organs! Enough vibrant colors to make even the most experienced crayon manufacturer weep! 

Honorable mention: Kiss of the Spider Woman

Visual Effects

5. F1

(source)

Cars! Cars going fast! Cars going upside down! Lots of boys playing with their cars!

4. Tron: Ares

(source)

Colors! Robots! I have never been able to turn down a light-cycle in my entire, very dumb life!

3. Superman

(source)

A Man of Steel who feels grounded in actual reality (and maybe actual steel)! A fully CG dog with a shitty personality! Mayhem, but arguably more mayhem than usual!

2. Predator: Badlands

(source)

Spectacular alien worlds! Really well-integrated performance capture and practical costumes! How on not-earth has this movie not gotten more recognition?

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

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There's nothing I can say about these movies' visual effects that you don't already know and believe! They exist in no small part as a reason to do visual effects innovations! Maybe a questionable premise for a movie, but a fantastic display of visual effects craft work!

Honorable mention: Mickey 17

Makeup and Hairstyling

5. Novocaine

(source)

To what extent do you enjoy lots of blood and gnarly wounds? I hope it's a lot, because that's just about all this entire category is about to be. Starting here! See Jack Quaid get turned into a brutalized potato!

4. Until Dawn

(source)

Wacky practical effects! Gross little face worms! Rotting ladies! Everything you'd look for in a fun afternoon!

3. The Ugly Stepsister

(source)

have you ever wanted to change your appearance? Watch this movie and see all five natural steps (braces, breaking your nose, pulling things out of your face, horrors, riding off to Sweden with your cooler younger sister)!

2. Weapons

(source)

An instantly iconic villain look! Haunted Ronald McDonald clown school nightmares! Some admirable goop!

1. Frankenstein

(source)

A new and exciting Frankenstein look in the year of our lord 2025! Period makeup and Christoph Waltz's horrible melting face! Making Jacob Elordi sit for full-body makeup for 11 hours straight and having the end result still be something we'd all still take out for a nice dinner!

Honorable mention: Superman

Film Editing

(I've tried to add clips to illustrate what I admire about these movies, with possibly mixed results.)

5. Weapons

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sId4bb0cio0 (some spoilers)

4. Marty Supreme

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z76FQplGHY 

3. Caught by the Tides

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LKtfktwJns

2. Final Destination 6: Bloodlines

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rugfvh0cN84

1. One Battle After Another

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9Wh9sf2y-U

Honorable mention: No Other Choice

Lots to love this year, from Weapons' whip-smart and impeccably timed edits selling both its horror and its comedy to Marty Supreme's frog-boiling tension that only increases as the movie continues (something that's a little hard to capture in a clip but really hits in the full context of the movie). Caught by the Tides' editing achievements are also hard to convey in clip form, but cutting together a movie out of archival footage across decades is a real feat. Final Destination puts in such strong work, nary a stray hair out of place until everything is suddenly out of place everywhere and on purpose--incredibly well-constructed work. Still, first place belongs this year (and pretty much any other year too) to One Battle After Another, which has some of the most electric and consistent I've ever seen in a move, all while jumping and skipping through different emotional moods and vibes every 30 seconds. The first time I saw this movie, I remember feeling a little cheated by the finale because I'd thought that only about an hour had gone by so far, when two and a half hours had flown by without me even noticing.

Cinematography

5. Die My Love

(source)

American pastoral gone awry! Alternatively sickly and verdant greens and over- an under-exposed faces! Seamus McGarvey should be the only person from now on who's allowed to do night scenes--this is how you make blues look vivid and dark!

4. Sinners

(source)

Deeply saturated colors and shadows like dreams! Embers that catch the eyes of something in the night! Rich golds and whites to illuminate the best (and last) party of your life!

3. 28 Years Later

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Makes it on the basis of that night scene alone, but lots of other great qualities! Expressive and gritty in equal measure! The 'sent from my iPhone' of movies, but complimentary!

2. Happyend

(source)

So warm and painterly with its light! Whole worlds of blues and grays and whites with little bits of joy in the margins! Not a movie with a lot of high-quality images from it online!

1. One Battle After Another

(source)

Burnt umber desert tableau! Teal fantasias of central and/or northern California! Kinetic action sequences that lose none of their coherence or their beauty!

Honorable mention: The History of Sound

(I have to say that this category was almost impossible to narrow down to five; all of these top six are really gorgeous.)

Original Score

5. One Battle After Another-Johnny Greenwood doing what he does best--going both very big and very little with pianos, wacky synths, and unexpected melodies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzhjTeSz9y4&list=PLpMx6WPPoWybBhBhJh2OjwE3k2N1tOYK5&index=1

4. Marty Supreme-upbeat anachronistic synths and increasingly stressful beats for all your ping-pong/chicanery needs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUpPqfstS_U&list=PLxA687tYuMWiIlPHgOxKqjt70YFW6UVWd&index=2

3. Sinners-such a fun mix of folk instrumentation, electric guitars, orchestral moments, and some actual-ass traditional heavy metal thrown in there whenever the vampires show up. So much of this movie's energy is due to Ludwig Göransson and friends beating the shit out of their instruments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmTnSU87SX0&list=PLeuk4c_cVcyrZLfQoWmZohM7jVbiS53_9&index=16

2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain-Why has no one else been talking about this score? So unexpected and diverse, big and ridiculous and propulsive one second and then lush and lovely in the next.

One track for some wild saxophones and choral motifs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5SyDdyGbyk&list=PLlqTwE544yIX4IJEzPrVxAa0zaSOmT_4o&index=11

And one lovely track: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eja9WqKk6xE&list=PLlqTwE544yIX4IJEzPrVxAa0zaSOmT_4o&index=5

1. 28 Years Later-a brain-melting combo of atonal chaos, percussive beats, pop rock, and the kind of melodies that will ensure you'll duck beneath your seat so that no one can see you weeping buckets at the silly zombie movie.

Ugh, just listening to this makes me want to tear up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PJIqmObrmo&list=PLRW80bBvVD3VZUKG2pKCshjyLCakN25Fk&index=21

Seriously, Alexandre Desplat could never: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POSqTXclLaQ&list=PLRW80bBvVD3VZUKG2pKCshjyLCakN25Fk&index=23

Honorable mention: The Plague

(Seriously, what a great category this year!)

Sound Mixing

5. Sinners-just the right blend of music, mayhem, and the dusty ambient life of just trying to have a nice time while both of those things are happening. The shoot-outs are a crisp as the blues riffs, both sounding like the first time in your life you've ever actually heard something.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ge3FMwsK9sM (big spoilers, lots of violence)

4. Final Destination: Bloodlines-I mean, for the Skyview disaster alone--everything pushed to 11, screams and fireballs and shattered glass rising coming at you like waves, or maybe laughter at a really good show--but the rest of it is no slouch either. Patient, whimsical sound work that plays with the audiences expectations before dropping a piano on their heads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iQhOmebDqo

3. Plainclothes-pushes the movie's aesthetic exploration of surveillance and low-fi 90s video grunge just as hard as the editing and format choices do. Anxiety made tangible and audible through waves of static, surging voices, and sudden silences.

(Cannot find a single clip of this movie on youtube that doesn't change the audio)

2. Warfare-striking how aggressively this movie uses silence and the weight of empty rooms to rachet up its tension. Whole stretches of nothing but breathing and listening to the world around you, all of which makes the sudden violence sound like the voice of god.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aflRfK0gmJU (just in a clip, it doesn't play that well, but the cumulative effect of the sound work in the context of the full movie is really impressive)

1. If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You-oh hey, were you interested in immediately having a panic attack? If so, just watch any scene from this movie. Astounding weaponization of sound, the punishment of other people's voices at every minute of the day like waves, and all the other ways sounds eat your identity. Felt like running a marathon, or maybe like being eaten by bears, or maybe both at the same time--a real test of endurance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHccUV8-Hlg (Uh, maybe don't click on this if  you're not interested in watching a (fake) hamster get run over by a car)

Honorable mention: Caught by the Tides

Sound Editing

5. Predator: Killer of Killers-that's right, there were two Predator movies this year, and while both had gnarly sound work, I'll tip my hat to the deranged clash of futuristic weaponry against Viking helmets, katanas, and WW2-era aircraft in the animated movie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHb8Zqko0pQ

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash-while it's true that I'm feeling the Avatar fatigue as much as (...or perhaps slightly less than) the average person, I can't deny that Pandora is still an absolute wonder to listen to.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tg97s_te-Ak (not the best showcase of the movie's sound effects, but it's literally the only clip I could find that wasn't recorded inside a movie theater, so.)

3. Warfare-like the sound mix, the effects in this movie go along way to make onscreen combat feel fresh--jet screams and secretive little sniper pops and the punishing baseball bat thunk of a tank.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aflRfK0gmJU

3. 28 Years Later-all the stomach-churning zombie squelching you could ask for, not to mention the butcher shop thwacks of violence, the fires of hell (or perhaps something better) as they burn flesh from bone, and the unforgettable thump-thump-thump of an alpha coming to rip your spine out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXxoQTBvGKQ

2. Final Destination: Bloodlines-like every other aspect of this movie, the sound effects people on Final Destination had great--and mean--sense of humor. I dare you not to laugh/cringe/physically recoil at the alien chestbursting sounds when a very special piercing starts ripping out of a very special place. It's gross, it's evocative, it'll make you never want to go inside a hospital again. Live-action Looney Tunes, with all the big comical whacks and bumps that go with it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJsZNmoMPDk (spoilers and violence)

Honorable mention: If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You

Original Song

5. "Hana"-Little Amélie or the Character of Rain-I don't know if my music tastes are changing, or movie music is, but for the past couple years I've had trouble filling out this category with movie songs I really love. But this little ditty from Little Amélie is warm and sweet and a nice way to end the movie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wiXAmR3dYQ

4. "I Lied to You"-Sinners-this would be at the very top if we were judging this category based on the sequence, not the song--and don't get me wrong, this song is good! It's a great take on 30s delta blues. I do think, though, that the visuals themselves lift this song higher than it'd go on its own.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGJlfjRUb1s

3. "The Mighty Crabjoys Theme"-Superman-is this song both canonically bad in the world of the movie and also not great in real life! Probably! But it's so dumb and joyous that I just can't turn down. Like Clark Kent, I was also a little too into pop punk in my teens, and we're both (probably) better for it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRxog6F0gk8

2. "Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters-has it been a little overplayed by this point? Maybe! Is it still a bop? Absolutely!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yebNIHKAC4A

1. "Pale, Pale Moon"-Sinners-for some reason, this is the unloved child of Sinners' original songs, and I just don't get it, as this is a certified banger, a wacky fusion of traditional instruments/sounds and modern sensibilities, and is incorporated in an interesting and propulsive way in the movie itself. It's great! Someone give it a statue!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AOydLHGMnY

Honorable mention: "Last Time (I Seen the Sun)"-Sinners

And that's it for this year! And thank goodness, because I have been doing way too much these past few days and my brain/fingers/tragic little soul could use a break. I will be more vivacious for these next year! For now, the victory is just that I have actually managed to write them. As always, I'm thrilled and thankful that y'all have followed me on this dumb journey. These lists aren't much, but they're mine, and I will keep churning them out 'til the heat death of the universe (or the regular death of me, whichever one comes first). I'll be back sometime next week (hopefully) with Oscar predictions, but for now I'm gonna spend five minutes weeping quietly to myself and then get on with all the other things I need to do.

For those playing along at home, here are the movies that showed up the most on my lists:

Sinners-12

One Battle After Another-6

Weapons-6

28 Years Later-5

Final Destination: Bloodlines-5

Sinners set a record for most Academy Award nominations last month, and here it's gone and tied for my personal awards record too--only Mad Max: Fury Road before it has reached 12 nominations from me. Being a really well-crafted movie in a somewhat disappointing movie year is a solid recipe for record-breaking, it seems.

As for wins, One Battle After Another came out on top with three trophies (Director, Editing, and Cinematography), while three movies find themselves in a tie for second place, each with two wins: Weapons (Picture, Supporting Actress), If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (Actress, Sound Mixing), and Frankenstein (Costume Design, Makeup). 

And that's that! As always, thanks for reading!

Best if 25, Part Two: Acting, Directing, Screenplays

At this point, I have lamented my seeming inability to compellingly praise cinema's mainline pleasures (acting, directing, writing) so much that I probably need to lament something new: namely, how difficult it is coming up with a new metaphor every year about how hard it is for me to write about these things. Last year's was a banger! I made a Lord of the Rings joke, accompanied by a picture of a confused owl! Genius is real, and it walks amongst us. Unfortunately for us all, genius very rarely walks into my room, and I am, as previously stated, so busy that my eyeballs are in actual danger of falling out of my head. So, in lieu of a fresh and sassy new metaphor, we all might have to settle for me saying that I will do my best to be more entertaining tomorrow. Maybe I will draw you a picture of a crying centaur as penance? I probably won't, but you can imagine it, which will be just as good. Look at him. He's miserable. And he's played by Tom Cruise! Surely this makes up for the lack of a new metaphor.

So here's how it'll go: I'll just rattle off my top five nominees in the acting, directing, and writing categories with some brief (...ish) commentary about the field. Knock your socks off! Or knock your socks on! I'm not here to judge you, I'm here to judge the movies, and I am gonna do so much of that.

Note: I'll include clips for the acting categories, but there won't be any rhyme or reason behind who gets them or why. It'll just be whatever I feel like/whatever I can easily find on Youtube.

Best Actress
5. Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
4. Zhao Tao-Caught by the Tides
3. Keke Palmer-One of Them Days
2. Emma Stone-Bugonia
1. Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You

Honorable mention: Jennifer Lawrence-Die My Love

A fun, eclectic mix here. Jessie Buckley's holding down the Oscar bait fort with her openness and vulnerability in Hamnet--a performance that I do really like, but admit to not quite getting her Oscar juggernaut status. Much happier to sing the praises of the undersung Zhao Tao and Keke Palmer, neither of whom have gotten any considerable awards attention this year and both of whom should be cleaning up, the first for her nearly silent portrayal of a wounded and bemused woman through decades of Chinese history and the other for being one of the funniest people in cinema. (Her delivery of 'not even infants?' keeps me up at night, but that whole video is a great showcase.) Either of those two would be great winners, but they're ceding the top spots to Emma Stone, whose partnership with Yorgos Lanthimos continues to yield her most bananas, bug-eyed work, and Rose Byrne, who made me feel like I spent her entire movie trapped in a pressure cooker with an unruly hamster.

Actor
5. Dylan O'Brien-Twinless
4. Josh O'Connor-Wake Up Dead Man
3. Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
2. Jesse Plemons-Bugonia
1. Abou Sangaré-Soulemane's Story

Honorable mention: Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme

Unbelievably difficult to decide which of these top six was getting left out; I started with Dylan O'Brien on the outside looking in, but it felt wrong enough that I did something silly and bumped Timothée Chalamet out of the top 5 entirely. Is this possibly an example of my undying and somewhat embarrassing love of Dylan O'Brien winning out over the fact that Timmy's been a bit of a dick lately? Maybe, but how can I turn down O'Brien's wonderfully nuanced performance as two very different twins, or (speaking of dual roles) Michael B. Jordan's cockiness and ferocity in dual (kind of triple, actually?) performances in Sinners (major spoilers for Sinners in that clip). While slots 3-6 were constantly up in the air, the top two seem obvious. Jesse Plemons has never been better (which is saying a lot) as a slippery conspiracy theorist becoming increasingly unhinged against Emma Stone's calm. And it's a cliché to say someone is a revelation, but just watch Abou Sangaré in his very performance in Soulemane's Story and tell me that it doesn't feel like seeing a miracle unfold in real time. (The performance is nowhere on Youtube, unfortunately, but it's worth seeking out.)

Supporting Actress
5. Sissy Spacek-Die My Love
4. Naomie Ackie-Sorry Baby
3. Kirsten Dunst-Roofman
2. Nina Hoss-Hedda
1. Amy Madigan-Weapons

Honorable mention: Teyana Taylor-One Battle After Another

You can tell I'm having a wildly off-consensus year in this category because only one of these five women have any clips on youtube to speak of. And I don't get it! How does Sissy Spacek's brittle, is-she-or-isn't-she dancing on the edge not take off? How are people not falling over themselves to reward the emotional complexity in Naomie Ackie and Kirsten Dunst's quiet and fragile performances, both generously supporting the leads of their movies while carving out a vital space for themselves? In any other year this would have gone to Nina Hoss--admittedly, a woman I am as likely to reward just for breathing as for anything else she does, but watch Hedda  and then explain to me how you don't want her to drown in a shower of golden trophies. But the performance of the category--and probably the year--for me is so obviously Amy Madigan, whose Gladys is one of the more original and vibrant creations in recent years. She storms into a horror movie like a cartoon character and takes charge of it through sheer lunacy, only shedding that lunacy later to to astounding effect (warning: that clip both has spoilers and violence). I've thought about one line reading that she does, and her reaction after--"and then I'll go home!" followed by such need and fear and vulnerability for a split second before papering over it with a little chuckle--at least every week since seeing this, and I have to assume I'll be thinking about it for weeks to come.

Supporting Actor
5. Austin Abrams-Weapons
4. Benicio Del Toro-One Battle After Another
3. Andrew Scott-Blue Moon
2. Delroy Lindo-Sinners
1. Stellan Skarsgard-Sentimental Value

Honorable mention: Sean Penn-One Battle After Another

A wild and delightful embarrassment of riches in this, what is reliably the dullest of major categories. It kills me to leave Senn Penn out, and he could easily be in the top 5 any other day, as could equally interesting performances from Michael Cera in The Phoenician Scheme, Kayo Martin in The Plague, or why not, even Noah Jupe in Hamnet or Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein. But for now, I feel good about these five. Madigan has (rightfully) taken all of Weapons' awards oxygen, but what is the movie without Abrams' jangly comedy and live-wire energy? Similarly, everyone's talking about Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon for reasons that are both completely understandable and kind of depressing, but where's the love for Andrew Scott, crafting a complicated and fully realized history in about five minutes of screen time? Sean Penn has the showier performance in One Battle..., but I'll give a slight edge to Del Toro, if only because I think kindness and generosity is harder to make seem interesting and valuable than it is to be a compelling villain. Finally, everyone throw some praise hands up for two great character actors finally getting their due, or at least a little bit of it. Delroy Lindo is one of the best actors on the planet, and it's a thrill to see him given so much to work with in Sinners. It's awfully tempting to put him in the top spot, but I've got to go with Skarsgard here (even if it's arguably a lead performance). There's so much gravity to his performance--everything inside him and outside him demanding to be felt and realized--and he makes it all manifest with the smallest eye movements, the slightest modulation in tone, the most casual of gestures. Real masterclass stuff.

Director
5. Jia Zhangke-Caught by the Tides
4. Park Chan-wook-No Other Choice
3. Danny Boyle-28 Years Later
2. Ryan Coogler-Sinners
1. Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another

Honorable mention: Charlie Polinger-The Plague

Five big swings from five ambitious directors, each of them bringing something special to what could have been a very different project. Jia's signature coup is to create a movie in the margins of his other work, tracing both his own evolution as an artist and China's course through the turn of the 21st century by creating a project that exists in the interstices of both of those narratives. No Other Choice is certainly fun on its own, but Park breathes manic life into the project, never settling for a standard transition or mood when he can do something wacky. Ditto Danny Boyle, who could have settled with making a lazy legasequel but chose instead to make a dizzy and heartfelt meditation on letting go, filmed entirely on iPhones--not that you'd be able to tell from how beautiful it looks. Coogler and Anderson are in a steel cage match for first place, both for making movies that feels as though no one on the planet could have made them. It's hard to deny Coogler's confidence and skill with a camera or his deftness in juggling different tones and genres, but I've got to just give it to Paul Thomas Anderson, who invested One Battle with the kind of electricity that feels like magic.

Original Screenplay
5. It Was Just an Accident
4. Sinners
3. Griffin in Summer
2. Weapons
1. On Becoming a Guinea Fowl

Honorable mention: The Plague

Kind of a funny thing this year with screenplays in both categories, in that many of my reservations about the movies this year, even the ones I loved, came from their scripts. So in both categories I've cobbled together a motley crew of 'great movie, fine screenplay' and 'fun screenplay, the movie was nice too' entries. As for reservations coming from the script, I'm side-eying Sinners and It Was Just an Accident here, but both movies are so unique and high-achieving that I can't begrudge them this spot (even if I maybe should?). Love, love love Griffin in Theater's unhinged theater kid energy and how it so carefully captures a very specific queer experience that at least some of us have had (writing a play for your straight crush and then being devastated when they don't actually want to act in it) (we, uh, we've all done that, right?). Also love Weapons' effortless toggling of humor, satire, horror, and actual pain. First and biggest props, however, go to On Becoming a Guinea Fowl for doing everything that each of these movies did and more: an evocation of a time and place that cuts like glass, juggling multiple tones and themes with grace, and serving something that feels new and fresh.

Adapted Screenplay
5. No Other Choice
4. Final Destination: Bloodlines
3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
2. Wake Up Dead Man
1. Bugonia

Honorable mention: The Long Walk

A category that feels vaguely barren and less vaguely bananas, resulting in what must surely be the very first writing award that any Final Destination film has ever received. But why not? It expands on the franchise with such humor and ease that I'm happy to give it its flowers, even--or especially--at the expense of other, more Oscar-nominated screenplays. (Seriously, is the best adapted screenplay category this year one of the worst lineups in history?) No Other Choice and Little Amélie earn their spots by being exactly what they need to be in exactly the right amounts. Wake Up Dead Man would make for a satisfying winner, if only for its remarkably even-handed and empathetic approach to faith (if not necessarily for its central mystery), but I'm going with Bugonia's by turns hilarious and disturbing weaponization of corporate speak and inspirational buzzword-ing done to dastardly effect. 

And that's that (again)! Which is good thing because a) I have got to start doing something else if I want to actually survive this week for real, and b) I am surely in jeopardy of overloading you all with too much of a good thing. One more aptly deployed metaphor or adverb and your minds will explode from having experienced every positive human emotion at once. I'll be back tomorrow with everyone's favorite annual event: me losing my mind about sound editing and costumes! I can't wait, and I'm sure you can't either, but you're just going to have to. Life is full of crushing disappointments! Stay tuned to see if one of those disappointments will be seeing if If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You's stellar sound work or One of Them Days' immaculate costumes will be snubbed yet again. Spoiler alert: they won't! No disappointments for anyone! What a time to be alive!