Oscar Predictions 2025: The Warner Brothers are Beating Each Other Up with Golden Statuettes, Who Will Stop Them (is it Jacob Elordi?)

While I would normally start with some long and florid introduction about the Oscars that tried to capture the spirit of the year, how the Academy perceived itself, how I felt about them, etc., this year I am going to have to forgo all that (much to the lamentation of all, I presume). As my last week has been singularly exhausting (having included such fun little activities including, but not limited to, driving a U-Haul across the country just yesterday), my day is full of non-Oscar things to do, and the ceremony starts in about nine hours, I find myself in the unenviable position of just trying to get these out by press-time at all. I've never failed to post Oscar predictions since 2005, and have often bragged that no force on Earth would stop me. Well, the majority of forces on Earth right now seem to be doing their best, but I am gonna persevere, albeit in a much more curtailed version than usual. So if you usually come here for the jokes and metaphors and wordy wind-ups, sorry! I will inflict double the normal amount of those on you next year, I promise. For now, I've got about thirty minutes to wrap up this whole process, and will have to hustle.

So here we go! I'm at a decade-low for having seen the nominees (I haven't seen nominees from a full ten categories, and haven't seen any from four of them--curse the shorts!), so I may be less informed than usual, but when has being informed ever helped me? I tend to predict more for fun than for accuracy. There are other websites out there crunching the numbers to help you win your Oscar pool; I'm here to light a little candle for Jacob Elordi and then kick some sand in the face of reason.

Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

The overarching narrative of the whole evening--one that I will giddily reiterate for nine of the next eighteen categories--is Sinners vs. One Battle After Another, A Warner Brothers-dominated steel cage mage between two wildly ambitious, unique, and politically timely movies. These two will be trying to score hits on each other all night, and there probably won't be too many other movies that will be able to pull a win over them in any category. That's doubly true here--it'd be almost unthinkable to see any other nominee win this category. But which one takes it? One Battle has the Critics Choice award, the Directors Guild award, the Producers Guild award, and the British Acadamy award--and no movie that's ever won all those has ever lost the Oscar. ...That said, Sinners has the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award, the Writers Guild award, and the American Cinema Editors award--and no movie that's won all of those has ever lost the Oscar, either. So either way, one historic streak is about to be broken. Sinners did just set the record for the most nominated film of all time, but Oscar has a funny habit this century of not giving the big prize to its most nominated movie. And One Battle swept all the early awards and seems to have a full head of steam coming into the final night. That said, Sinners has won the most recent awards and feels like the movie that's on the tip of everyone's tongue right now.

In other words? It's a toss-up. There's no historical precedent for a stoner-action-satire-political thriller and a vampire-musical-historical drama becoming dualing Oscar juggernauts, so flip a coin, or go with your heart.

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
Should Have Been Here: Weapons

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler-Sinners
Josh Safdie-Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier-Sentimental Value
Chloe Zhao-Hamnet

You can mostly copy-paste the argument from best picture to this category as well, with the caveat that Anderson/One Battle has mostly swept the precursor awards. He's got the momentum and he's a hugely loved and respected director who's never been recognized with an Oscar. As such, he's the frontrunner, but don't discount Ryan Coogler if Sinners goes for a sweep.

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Could Win: Ryan Coogler-Sinners
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Should Have Been Here: Danny Boyle-28 Years Later

Actress
Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson-Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve-Sentimental Value
Emma Stone-Bugonia

Jessie Buckley wins in an avalanche in the easiest category of the night. Everyone arguing for Rose Byrne's critical wins or Kate Hudson's late-blooming sentimental narrative are silly and should feel silly,

Will Win: Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
Could Win: Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Should Win: Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You*
Should Have Been Here-Zhao Tao-Caught by the Tides

*I haven't seen Song Sung Blue

Actor
Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme
Leonardo Dicaprio-One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
Ethan Hawke-Blue Moon
Wagner Moura-The Secret Agent

From the easiest race to call to the most difficult--hard to remember another above-the-line Oscar category in my lifetime where literally anyone could win. And I've seen everyone of these men predicted as a winner! So we'll just go alphabetically. Chalamet: he was the frontrunner for the longest time, but all the wind has gone out of Marty Supreme's awards sails, and he's still awfully young to win (at 30, he'd be the second youngest winner in this category ever). Plus, he's kind of come across as a dick lately (sorry Timmy, I love you but it's true). It's difficult to pull off an (almost) unprecedented Oscar win when people don't want to love you. That said, he does have a ton of momentum and this is the only place to award a well-liked best picture nominee with nine nods to its name. Dicaprio: arguably the least likely, but who knows? People love and respect him, and One Battle could be a huge sweeper. Jordan: this felt impossible only a month ago, but Jordan's Screen Actors Guild win shows a big momentum shift. Plus, he's coming across as the anti-Chalamet, seeming very humble and down to earth on the campaign trail. He's the kind of actor other actors love to see succeed, and Sinners could become a sweeper as well. Hawke: it hurts him that Blue Moon is the only non-best picture nominee in the field (it's becoming increasingly difficult for movies not nominated for best picture to win an Oscar in any category), but he's also a beloved character actor who's never gotten his due. He could be a shocking (or not so shocking) dark horse. And finally, Moura: as I said in my predictions post, people can be absolutely feral for Brazilian cinema, and Moura is one of its most famous figures. The Secret Agent is really highly regarded, too. Am I brave enough to pick Moura above Chalamet and Jordan? I'll find out in about five seconds!

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan-Sinners (it turns out that I'm not)
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme
Should Win: Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
Should Have Been Here: Abou Sangaré-Souleymane's Story

Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning-Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas-Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan-Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku-Sinners
Teyana Taylor-One Battle After Another

You can easily rule out both the Sentimental Value ladies, lovely as their performances are--they won't be triumphing here tonight. The other three have about an equal chance between them. Madigan is the lone nomination for her film, and what's more, it's a horror performance in a straight horror movie, which almost never win. That said, she won the most recent televised award (SAG), has a ton of love behind her, and has the additional narrative of having the third longest wait between her first and second nominations (39 years!). Mosaku doesn't have any big Oscar clips, but she did win the second most recent televised award (British Academy), has the biggest role for a woman in a movie largely dominated by men, and could easily benefit from a Sinners sweep (Swinners?). That said, Taylor could do the same with a One Battle sweep and leaves a huge impression on the audience--but her screen time is limited to the first half-hour of an almost three-hour film. It's a real toss-up.

Will Win: Wunmi Mosaku-Sinners
Could Win: Amy Madigan-Weapons
Should Win: Amy Madigan-Weapons
Should Have Been Here: Nina Hoss-Hedda

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro-One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi-Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo-Sinners
Sean Penn-One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard-Sentimental Value

Another exceptionally volatile category--and isn't it fun that almost all of the big categories are so wild this year? It's a real rarity, and I'm here for it. I think it's probably safe to rule out Benicio Del Toro, but I suppose you never know--he did win lots of early-season critics awards, after all. Conventional wisdom suggests this will go to Sean Penn, who won the two most recent awards (SAG and the British Academy), is a hugely memorable part of the best picture frontrunner, and plays a villain, which frequently wins in this category. That said, he hasn't been campaigning much and has been pretty vocal in his dislike of the Oscars and awards in general. Is that something that will actually work against him in real life, or just on the internet? Stellan Skarsgard was was the perceived frontrunner for the first half of this awards season, and could still easily prevail: he's a well-liked veteran actor getting his first nomination in his 70s for a popular and heavily-nominated film. That said, Delroy Lindo has that exact same argument, pretty much, and has been eating up a lot of the conversation in this category lately--and Sinners is much stronger than Sentimental Value as well. For some dopey reason though, I can't shake the dizzy notion that Jacob Elordi might win this. He did surprise at the Critics' Choice awards, and is pretty universally what people have praised most about Frankenstein. On the other hand, he is very young (28 years old) and pretty, and while Oscar loves picking women who are young and pretty, it kind of hates men who are young and pretty. Still, though--in a category this close, shocking wins often come out of nowhere. I don't think I'm brave enough to pick him, but if he does win, everyone please remember that I kind of called it here first.

Will Win: Jacob Elordi-Frankenstein (screw it, no guts, no glory, as the famous reanimated corpse once said before throwing a kid into a pond)
Could Win: Sean Penn-One Battle After Another
Should Win: Stellan Skarsgard-Sentimental Value

Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
It Was Just An Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners

Those tired of all the intrigue may take a second here to catch their breath. Sinners wins this, barring some huge shock, as voters will surely want to see Ryan Coogler go home with a win, even if he loses picture and director, and Sinners is nothing if not wildly original. I guess Sentimental Value could rally, but if I'm not predicting Skarsgard to win in a much easier category, I can hardly predict that here, can I?

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: Sentimental Value
Should Win: Sinners
Should Have Been Here: On Becoming a Guinea Fowl

Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams

Another easy category. Similar to Ryan Coogler and Sinners, voters will want to see Paul Thomas Anderson with an Oscar in his hands, and this is the place to guarantee that it happens, whatever happens in the top categories.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Hamnet
Should Win: Bugonia
Should Have Been Here: Wake Up Dead Man
Should Have Been Here: Andrew Scott-Blue Moon

Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners

For three of next four categories, the argument will be the same: can Frankenstein beat Sinners? And for three of the next four categories, the answer will also be the same: probably, yes! Sinners could sweep, but my money's on the respect for Frankenstein's lavish designs and visuals to win out

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Marty Supreme
Should Have Been Here: No Other Choice

Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners

Category two of three for Frankenstein vs. Sinners. How wild is that Avatar nomination here, huh? Having watched a bunch of videos in my post-nomination befuddlement, I at least get it now, even if I wouldn't have chosen it myself. Still, one of the wackier nominations of my Oscar-viewing life.

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Frankenstein
Should Have Been Here: One of Them Days

Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World: Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners

Most everyone will tell you that this category is cut and dry, and they're probably right: the Avatar series more or less exists at this point to make visual effects innovations, and each of the previous two has won this category. ...However. The Academy may be experiencing franchise fatigue. The first Avatar was nominated for nine Oscars, including picture and director, and won four, the second was nominated for four Oscars, including picture, and won one, and this one is only nominated for two. Will they feel like it's all too much the same? Secondly, it's actually incredibly rare for a movie nominated in best picture and this category to lose here to something not nominated for best picture--it's only happened twice in Academy history, and one of those times was a really wacky year. Which is to say that F1 and Sinners, statistically speaking, should be your winners. That said, they both feature supporting effects (i.e. things that blend into the background more than calling attention to themselves as big visual effects moments), which almost never win in this category. So you should probably choose Avatar if you're not feeling silly, but like I dunno, maybe silly is the right vibe here.

Will Win: F1 (man, I am gonna get destroyed in my Oscar competition this year, I am making all silly choices)
Could Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash*
Should Have Been Here: Predator: Badlands

*I haven't seen The Lost Bus

Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister

Category three of Frankenstein vs. Sinners. How fun is it that--for once!--this branch has recognized horror in a big way! Three of the nominees this year are from the genre arguably most indebted to makeup work, but most commonly overlooked by the Academy.

Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Frankenstein*
Should Have Been Here: Weapons

*maybe a dumb claim to make, as I've seen neither Kokuho nor The Smashing Machine

Film Editing
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners

This category can go exactly three ways. If One Battle After Another wins, then things have gone as expected; this will help it on the road to best picture, but it's not guaranteed. If Sinners wins, expect a Sinners sweep. If F1 wins, accept that the Academy boys could once again not resist playing with their little cars.

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: F1
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Should Have Been Here: Final Destination: Bloodlines

Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams

Pure One Battle vs. Sinners here. It's tempting to say that whichever movie wins this wins best picture, but I'm not sure it's as simple as that. Sinners had the early momentum, One Battle has the current momentum, and it's anybody's guess who triumphs. Fingers crossed for Sinners: I don't know that it would actually be my #1 pick, but this category is the last category left that has yet to be won by a woman, and Sinners is the closest anyone has ever come to breaking that streak. Now watch Train Dreams come from behind and take it all!

Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: One Battle After Another (but I'm pulling for Sinners)
Should Have Been Here: Happyend

Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners

Clearly Sinners' battle to lose, right? Its music is both stellar and integral to the plot, and the Academy is desperately in love with Sinners composer Ludwig Göransson.

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
Should Have Been Here: 28 Years Later

Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirat

A duel between F1 and Sinners. What wins out? A music-heavy film (which Oscar loves in this category) that's also got action and horror, or a movie about big fast cars (which Oscar loves in this category)? Sinners' pull in other categories might see it to a win here, but Oscar really loves car movies here.

Will Win: F1
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Sirat
Should Have Been Here: If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Original Song
"Dear Me"-Diane Warren: Relentless
"Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
"I Lied to You"-Sinners
"Sweet Dreams of Joy"-Viva Verdi
"Train Dreams"-Train Dreams

The chart-topping, Grammy-nominated earworm juggernaut probably takes this, but are we underestimating how much people love Sinners' music? And this song is the centerpiece of its most talked about moment. Still, hard to turn down all those K-Pop power chords.

Will Win: "Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: "I Lied to You"-Sinners
Should Win: "Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
Should Have Been Here: "Pale Pale Moon"-Sinners

Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners

And how, do you ask, can we predict an award that's never been given before? We guess! We might assume that this just goes to the eventual best picture winner, but I think Sinners' huge ensemble of strong character actors will be enough to carry it across the finish line, even if it doesn't win best picture.

Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Marty Supreme
Should Have Been Here: Weapons

Animated Film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie, or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

Almost unimaginable for KPop Demon Hunters to lose here--it was a huge hit and a cultural phenomenon, and none of the other movies made much of a mark. The past couple years have seen the big mainstream favorite falling to a smaller indie darling, but I don't think any of the smaller movies have the juice to unseat Netflix here.

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: Zootopia 2
Should Win: Little Amélie, or the Character of Rain*
Should Have Been Here: abstain (I haven't seen enough animated movies this year)

*I haven't seen Arco

International Film
It Was Just An Accident-France
The Secret Agent-Brazil
Sentimental Value-Norway
Sirat-Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab-Tunisia

I toyed with the idea of the bombing of Iran being enough to take Jafar Panahi's It Was Just an Accident to an unexpected win, but no movie that's ever been nominated for best picture has lost here (except to another best picture nominee), so this is between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. With nine nominations to The Secret Agent's four, Sentimental Value sure looks like the on-paper favorit,e but see above re: Brazilian cinema and passionate fans.

Will Win: Sentimental Value-Norway
Could Win: The Secret Agent-Brazil
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident-France*
Should Have Been Here: No Other Choice-South Korea

*I haven't seen The Voice of Hind Rajab

Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor

I have spent way too long doing this and (embarrassingly) haven't seen any of these, so I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions. The Perfect Neighbor has the momentum, Mr. Nobody Against Putin is most topical, and my sister said Come See Me in the Good Light was really good, so there you are.

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: I haven't seen any of these, because I am a garbage person

And that's that! I currently have Sinners and One Battle After Another dominating the night, winning half of the categories. I am also really doubling down on dumb choices (Frankenstein winning more Oscars than One Battle After Another? Seriously?), but I wouldn't have it any other way.

Well, whatever happens, it'll be fun to watch--and because I am so behind schedule, we'll get to watch it in a few hours! Until then, we can embrace the joy of not knowing. 

Oscar Predictions 2025: The Oscars Want You to Feel Fear, or: The Sun Will Soon Explode, A Children's Primer

"The pictures you've been using for your Oscar stuff lately have been deranged"--a close family member

Is everything fundamentally broken and is the world a hollow shell of what it once was? Yes, but consider: what if also no?

Maybe I should start from the beginning, or barring that (as I am unwilling, and possibly unable, to transcribe the history of history, the written word, visual media, and California-based awards bodies in the amount of time it will take me to finish listening to the Marty Supreme soundtrack), I'll start about a year back. In my Oscar prediction post from last year, I mentioned how the narrative of the Oscars tends to map onto the narrative of the year at large--or at least it lets me shamelessly project it there whilst clasping my tinfoil hat and dreaming of a better tomorrow. If 2025 was a morass of uncertainty and disappointment in a world spinning off its axis, the movie year followed suit (and was, arguably, the more serious issue). Prestige releases floundered, guaranteed box-office hits collapsed underneath their own weight--just imagine, the new Avatar has only made about $300 million in profit so far, are these the end times?--and people looked for escape by getting as weird with it as they could. To paraphrase the 2018 version of Susy Bannion, that wisest of all the dancing sages: the world's a mess. Why are people so ready to believe that the worst is already over?

I'm deploying this exceptionally cheerful and not at all overblown framing device to account for the fact that our potential crop of Oscar nominees this year is a strange and unruly bunch that mirrors the world around it--how else to explain that a full seven of the twelve most likely best picture nominees are horror movies or political thrillers? (And then, to the side, Brad Pitt is driving his little race car, because newly-50-something Gen Xers also need to be loved and validated.) Hell, even the biggest, baitiest prestige hits involve a prominently featured child corpse, Geza Röhrig getting honey licked off his hirsute torso inside a concentration camp, and an immigrant getting thrown to his death for no reason, just for fun. It's a strange mix of movies--implausible even--that can partly be attributed to a seeming dearth of quality prestige fare and partly to a fast-growing and more adventurous body of voters in the Academy, but has to, at least in part, reflect how the Academy, like liquids and cats, changes shape to fit the shape of its container. 

All of this is to say that it's time to buckle up, because either things are going to get weird or the failed prestige films are going to do their best impression of Hamlet's dad and come crawling back early in the morning after dying at a nice banquet thrown to try and bolster their popularity and scream at us about how Bradley Cooper will die before he releases a movie that your mother wouldn't be willing to call 'nice.' Guillermo Del Toro's superhero update of Frankenstein hitting double-digit nominations? Why not? That sleeper horror hit about missing kids muscling past James goddamn Cameron and his nightmare cadre of blue enforcers to get into best picture? Bring it on! A gory vampire musical and a perma-stoned paranoid satire/thriller/family drama/action movie/showcase of Benicio Del Toro's stellar white pants both tying or breaking the record for most nominated movie of all time in the most implausible battle to the death since my sister and I bought a gallon bucket of dessert that just turned out to be whipped cream piled on a half inch of limpid sponge cake? Anything is possible! I have dusted off very special insanity socks and am prepared for madness.

Oscar nominations come out tomorrow morning, just in time for me to send a link of this post to my dissertation advisor as an explanation for why I deserve not two, but ten PhDs, one for each field pertaining to one of the best picture nominees (because what is less worthless than on humanities PhD than ten humanities PhDs?), and all of my speculation will become meaningless, but that's part of the fun, isn't it? Oscar predictions flow like water, and it's always a joy to pretend to swim before Diane Warren drowns you in her annual Oscar paddle pool, thus fulfilling the blood sacrifice with Lord Upuhaut, the mighty wolf of darkness that (presumably) controls the Academy's music branch. Do note that I tend to let my sillier impulses take over (he says, not 20 words after invoking Diane Warren's blood ritual), which means that I'm not always aiming for sheer accuracy. There are plenty of websites to help you nail every category, but I'm here to make you consider what would happen if the Academy wanted to demonstrate their eldritch power by making you watch The Electric State and The Ballad of a Small Player in a fit of horrible completism. Worse things could happen, and probably will tomorrow morning, so let's get to it!

(note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood, so the first movie listed is the most likely, the second is the next most likely, etc.)

Best Picture
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Sentimental Value
Train Dreams
The Secret Agent
Weapons
Bugonia
Alternate: It Was Just an Accident

The through-line of the next eighteen categories is going to be asking, again and again, how many nominations One Battle After Another and Sinners can rack up. I mentioned that both could tie or break the nomination record (currently 14), and that wasn't a joke--most predictions I've seen have at least one hitting that threshold. I, however, am laboring under the delusion that most movies that threaten to hit that number find a way of fumbling it at the finish line (think The Shape of Water coming up empty in both Visual Effects and Makeup, Barbie falling flat on its face, etc.). So every category from here on out will be a rationalization of why I think each of those will get exactly 13 nominations (...spoiler alert). Elsewhere, this category feels like it ought to be volatile, but for the total lack of compelling challengers to oust any of these movies out of the top 10. I'd say anything Train Dreams and after doesn't feel totally safe, but what's going to replace them? It Was Just an Accident could, but then we'd have a full third of the nominees being in a language other than English, which feels implausible (there only having been two years so far in Academy history with two non-English language best picture nominees). F1, Wicked: For Good, and Avatar: Fire and Ash are all holding the line for blockbusters with middling to poor reviews that are nevertheless trying to fail up in the most spectacular fashion, and I wouldn't be shocked to see F1 make it (that is, shocked from a prognosticating standpoint--I remain eternally baffled as to what people see in this dumb little car movie). Beyond that, it's more international movies (like No Other Choice and Sirat) that don't have the juice to muscle past the other, bigger international contenders, indies like Blue Moon, The Testament of Ann Lee, and Sorry, Baby, none of which never took off like they needed to, and fallen Oscar bait like Jay Kelly and Is This Thing On?, which, come on, seriously. (Watch, now Bradley Cooper will ride triumphantly into the Dolby again on a horse made out of Golden Globes and I will be forced to eat my special insanity socks.) As I said in the intro, chaos reigns, which means that Oscar voters are going to have to make time for Aunt Gladys's murder tree and Jesse Plemons bludgeoning people while covered in bees.

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler-Sinners
Chloe Zhao-Hamnet
Josh Safdie-Marty Supreme
Kleber Mendonca Filho-The Secret Agent
Alternate: Jafar Panahi-It Was Just An Accident

Bucking the conventional wisdom here, which suggests that Panahi or Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value will take the perennial cool international spot, but The Secret Agent's topical as hell, its popularity has been surging, and Filho's star is on the rise. Plus, as last year showed us, the Academy can go absolutely feral for 70s-set Brazilian political dramas when given the opportunity. I'm doing my level best to manifest Frankenstein's failure wherever possible (I've collaged a dream board that consists of nothing but Dr. Frankenstein becoming a successful mid-level pediatrician while his monster works in a cubicle, wondering what might have been), but don't be surprised to see Guillermo Del Toro slide in here, despite my best efforts.

Actress
Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Emma Stone-Bugonia
Renate Reinsve-Sentimental Value
Jennifer Lawrence-Die My Love
Alternate: Chase Infiniti-One Battle After Another

That's right, kids--I'm kicking off my 'One Battle/Sinners in the dreaded 6th place' promotional campaign by assuming that the Academy still loves Jennifer Lawrence enough to welcome her back into the fold, despite the odds (anyone remember her nomination for Joy, because I sure do). Obviously Infiniti is the likelier choice, or Amanda Seyfried's righteous warbles in The Testament of Ann Lee, but I'm going to assume that the Academy cohort that gave Lawrence four nominations in five years is just happy to see her out and about again. I've seen plenty of arguments for Kate Hudson sneaking in with late-stage mom hit Song Sung Blue, but that feels like the Last Showgirl-esque kind of narrative that feels wildly plausible before the nominations which everyone pretends they never believed the second nominations are announced.

Actor
Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme
Leonardo Dicaprio-One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke-Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
Wagner Moura-The Secret Agent
Alternate: Joel Edgerton-Train Dreams

These five seem somewhat inevitable to me--the first four look like a done deal, and I can hardly argue for a Wagner Moura snub when I've got a surprise Secret Agent best director nomination. I'll admit that I've had the terrible suspicion that Michael B. Jordan will be ignored--once again--for stellar work in genre fare, but haven't been brave or sad enough to actually predict it. If that happens, or if I'm wrong about The Secret Agent's popularity, my heart would like to believe that Plemons gets in for his latest (and maybe career-best) DPwaVed (deranged person with a vision) performance (see, it sounded like depraved, I accept venmo). But my brain tells me that the shuffling twilight beast made up of four terrible prestige limbs (Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams, Dwayne Johnson/The Smashing Machine, Jeremy Allen White/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Oscar Isaac/Frankenstein) takes it instead. Tremble, mortals. (Sidebar: once, while struggling to name my favorite actors for a cinephile friend, I said "I dunno, Joel Edgerton, I guess?" and my friend said "are you serious?" and then we had to change the subject so he could continue to respect me. Poor Joel. He doesn't deserve to be a leg of the shuffling prestige beast, but here we are.)

Supporting Actress
Teyana Taylor-One Battle After Another
Amy Madigan-Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku-Sinners
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas-Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande-Wicked: For Good
Alternate: Odessa A'zion-Marty Supreme

Wildly volatile category here, in that I wouldn't be shocked by any of the above women failing to get the nomination. A'zion could easily slip in, as could Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value. Is Taylor's role too small, especially in the face of the Academy's love of rewarding lead performances here? Is a horror villain really going to get in, even if she gives one of the best performances of the year? Are Mosaku and Lilleaas not well-known enough, is Wicked's critical belly flop going to take her out of the running? Should we expect something totally bananas, like a Regina Hall/One Battle After Another surprise or Nina goddamn Hoss finally getting a nomination for Hedda? Really interesting, potentially surprising category, which usually means that the most obvious answer is the right one, so there you have it.

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro-One Battle After Another
Sean Penn-One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard-Sentimental Value
Jacob Elordi-Frankenstein
Paul Mescal-Hamnet
Alternate: Delroy Lindo-Sinners

Really the victim of my own rules here. Every molecule in my dumb little body says that Sinners will score a nod here, either for Lindo or Miles Caton, but that'd push it to 14 nominations, and for whatever reason I don't believe that can happen, so we're all stuck with Paul Mescal glumly to be or not to be-ing directly into the camera. Strangely stunted category, though--is there anyone other than those seven men who has even a chance?

Original Screenplay
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
It Was Just An Accident
Weapons
Alternate: The Secret Agent

Another really interesting category here, one primed for some upsets. Despite its sudden an inexplicable loss of momentum, I anticipate It Was Just an Accident scoring here over other, buzzier potential best picture nominees, and I have to believe that Weapons is clever and memorable enough to overcome the horror bias (my god you guys, my dumb heart yearns so desperately for a big morning for Weapons). Is it silly not to include The Secret Agent in the top five after being so giddy about its chances everywhere else? Probably! Are Sorry, Baby and Blue Moon the more obvious and writerly options? It's possible! Anything goes, which means that my dumb heart is gonna go for what it wants.

Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Train Dreams
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Alternate: No Other Choice

A severely unpopulated field this year--after these six, it's like, Wake Up Dead Man and then Nuremberg, heaven help us. I'd like to imagine that Park Chan-wook finally gets the Oscar success that's been eluding his career for decades now, but somehow, against all odds, a Frankenstein adaptation that has a character turn to the camera and say "you're the real monster, Frankenstein!" is going to be lauded for its writing prowess. The mind reels.

Production Design
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Alternate: Hamnet

Sure it might seem strange to you, a filthy casual, for me to burn up one of my precious One Battle nominations on production design, since I'm only allowing it 13 nominations. But let's look at its competition, assuming the first four are safe (which is maybe a big if; am I too bullish on Marty Supreme? Is Wicked going to tank?). I can't shake the feeling that Hamnet is going to stumble a little on nominations morning, and here's a good place to do it, as the film mostly takes place outside and/or in a series of gray rooms. I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Avatar: Fire and Ash will be almost entirely shut out (sorry, James, guess you forgot to put an awards setting on your submersible), The Fantastic Four: First Steps would be a great nominee here, but Marvel movies almost never get nominated for anything but visual effects unless they're Black Panther, and things like The Phoenician Scheme and Hedda feel like long shots anyway. No, I think One Battle's sweep carries it into this category, contemporary setting be damned.

Costume Design
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Alternate: Hedda

I'm weirdly confident about these five. Most people are opting for a lone nominee here, Hedda or Kiss of the Spider Woman or The Testament of Ann Lee, but we live in an Oscar ecosystem that eats lone nominees for breakfast, so look to the prestige period dramas to carry the day. I almost jumped for a international bolt from the blue--The Ugly Stepsister or Kokuho, for example--but lost my nerve at the last second. Still, if that happens, remember that you heard it here first and that I totally predicted it in my (and your) heart.

Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Superman
The Lost Bus
Jurassic World: Rebirth
Alternate: The Electric State

In this, the most vexing of categories, I have elected to split a particular gordian knot. Surely there has been some hand-wringing about whether Avatar would lose this award to a best picture nominee--F1, Sinners, or Frankenstein, say--given that non-best picture nominees almost never win this category over best picture nominees. Well, friends, I have solved this particular conundrum by assuming that there won't be any best picture nominees here. Sinners has the kind of supporting effects that critics' awards love that the Oscars don't, and Frankenstein was almost totally iced out (heh) by the Visual Effects Society awards, so we'll toss those two out. That makes it an unholy slap-fest between movies that made no one smile: Jurassic World, The Electric State, and Tron: Ares. I choose to walk in the light of the lord, which is to say I assume that voters will remember Jonathan Bailey's slutty little glasses fondly and give them their day in the sun.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
The Smashing Machine
Nuremberg
The Ugly Stepsister
Alternate: Marty Supreme

Another volatile category--isn't it refreshing to have an actual-ass competition this year? I could see any potential nominee but Frankenstein missing, and any potential nominee in the previously announced shortlist getting in. Still, if I'm predicting that Sinners and One Battle After Another won't break any records, then they have to miss here--which makes sense to me, as horror effects almost never get in and a One Battle nom would be indicative of a groupthink-y sweep in the one category that most frequently resists nominating best picture contenders just because they're best picture contenders. It's tempting to assume that Timothée's horrible little mustache will be immortalized in the annals of Oscar history, but I'm going for the things this branch more commonly loves--fat suits and showy prosthetics--to win the day.

Film Editing
One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Sinners
F1
Hamnet
Alternate: Frankenstein

I tried again and again to make room for something more fun, something with slightly neater editing, like No Other Choice, Weapons, or The Secret Agent, but again and again came up against the seemingly invincible adage that this category will always just grab best picture contenders out of a lineup and skip off with a song in its heart--the most boring lineup is usually the correct one. And, I suppose, F1 is already occupying the showy editing slot (you can tell it's got the best editing because the cars go fast).

Cinematography
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Frankenstein
The Ballad of A Small Player
Alternate: Hamnet

Today I choose chaos, and chaos today foresees a world in which the Oscars continue to force me to engage with Edward Berger movies, The Ballad of a Small Player coming out of nowhere to personally antagonize me. The smarter money is obviously a big best picture player like Hamnet or Marty Supreme, or maybe a littler best picture player like F1 or Bugonia, but nope, I'm going with the future in which the Academy punishes me, specifically. (Will I also be punished for not picking Nouvelle Vague, given this branch's predilection for black and white? It's not impossible, but I will persevere.)

Original Score
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
Hamnet
Alternate: F1

Marty Supreme's wacky 80s synths might be too wacky and 80s for this branch, one which has never really warmed up to the simple joys of a middle-aged divorcée beating the shit out of a row of buttons, but the heart wants what it wants. It would probably be wise to consider branch favorites Hans Zimmer (F1) or Nicholas Britell (Jay Kelly), or wacky upstarts like Sirat or Bugonia, but I'm sticking with the weepy buttons, and no one on this earth can stop me.

Sound
Sinners
F1
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
Sirat
Alternate: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Another category that finds me absurdly confident, despite Avatar and Wicked being much more traditional nominees and Mission: Impossible and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere offering the general kinds of action/music hijinks that usually succeed here. But this category has (tragically) been trending toward big contenders lately, which gives Frankenstein an edge, and Sirat was too successful throughout awards season and on the Academy shortlists to think that it won't appear anywhere, so here it is! (Y'all, what even is Sirat? No one is willing to give an answer other than 'it's weird and upsetting, you'll love it' and I am so hyped.)

Original Song
"Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
"I Lied to You"-Sinners
"Dear Me"-Diane Warren: Relentless
"Dying to Live"-Billy Idol Should Be Dead
"Our Love"-The Ballad of Wallis Island
Alternate: "Last Time (I Seen the Sun)-Sinners

Divinely ridiculous of me to shun the other Sinners song and both new Wicked tracks in favor of some lesser-known contenders, but I am, if nothing else, divinely ridiculous, and this is my party. Besides, this category has shown us time and time again that a) any older music superstar that pens something for a movie during the year is likely to get recognized, b) this category has no problem sweeping bigger contenders out of the way for nominees that make you go "I'm sorry, what?" (forever remembering that brisk winter morning in January of 2010 when our perceptions of reality all had to collectively shift to accommodate Paris 36 springing suddenly and fully formed into being, just in time to make us all wonder what a "Loin de Paname" was). ...So like, given that logic, I should be predicting a Viva Verdi! nomination, but I don't want to fly too close to the sun.

Casting
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Alternate: Weapons

It's a new category! That's right, for the first time in my Oscar prediction career, and only the second time in my lifetime, there's a new category to consider, and I'm going to commemorate this momentous occasion by making the most boring predictions possible. There's been lots of discussion about whether this branch is going to go their own way or just rubber stamp the biggest best picture contenders. While I would like to imagine that they'll be weird like the makeup and visual effects branch and will get a Weapons/Wicked/Sirat/Secret Agent/Sinners lineup or something equally delightful, I'm going to assume they'll make the duller choice until they prove me wrong. Prove me wrong, casting directors! You can make the world a stranger, more beautiful place! Choose courage and don't nominate Frankenstein! (Honestly though, if Frankenstein gets in I will simply choose death.)

Animated Film
Kpop Demon Hunters
Zootopia 2
Arco
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
Endless Cookie
Alternate: Elio

Speaking of flying too close to the sun, I'm predicting that Pixar misses out here (which has only happened to six of the twenty-eight eligible movies it has released since this category's inception) in favor of a weird little Canadian movie that no one is talking about. But hey, this category's really been going its own way lately. Sure, if I'm replacing Pixar, it'd make more sense to pick a buzzier indie title like Scarlet or A Magnificent Life, a buzzier mainstream movie like In Your Dreams or The Bad Guys 2, or even Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle, the improbable anime box-office smash whose title would surely go down as one of the longest in Oscar nominee history, but nope, I'm sticking with the animated Canadian documentary. We really can all be giants if we choose to be.

International Film
Sentimental Value-Norway
The Secret Agent-Brazil
It Was Just an Accident-France
No Other Choice-South Korea
Sirat-Spain
Alternate: The Voice of Hind Rajib-Tunisia

The same five movies have garnered the nominations in this category from basically every awards-giving body, and sure, I know all the cool kids are predicting a high-profile snub in favor of something smaller like Hind Rajib, Left-Handed Girl, Sound of Falling, Palestine 36, Belen, or whatever, but I am going to be the even cooler kid by predicting that the biggest surprise in this category is that there are no big surprises.

Documentary Feature
2000 Meters to Andriivka
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 -- Last Air in Moscow
Cutting Through Rocks
Alternate: The Perfect Neighbor

Screw it: every year, this category sets us up with an obvious nominee/winner, and every year, this category yanks that obvious nominee out from under us like a particularly documentary-enthused Lucy to our hapless Charlie Brown. It's clear that critics and audiences just don't mesh with this branch's very specific tastes, so I'm leaving undeniable frontrunner The Perfect Neighbor out of the running. In favor of what? Haha like I'd know, I haven't seen any of these movies. As I said last year (and, I assume, will say every year from now on): Behold! The darts I have thrown.

And there you have it! For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:

Sinners-13
One Battle After Another-13
Frankenstein-10
Hamnet-9
Marty Supreme-9

I'm not sure how confident I feel about any of these, but how confident do I feel about anything other than the fact that one day the sun will explode? Confidence is overrated--I'm here to encourage the Oscars to be a little dumb about it all.

As always, I know it's silly to spend this many words on Oscar nominations without having talked about my own picks, and those are surely on the way (assuming, of course, that I survive/and or finish my dissertation revisions in a timely fashion, which is maybe the biggest if in a universe of massive, floating ifs, like if the opening crawl from Star Wars were just a celestial cloud of uncertainty). For now, I'll say that if I could guarantee any outcome, it'd be for Weapons to have a big morning (if only for the novelty, but also because it deserves it), and if I could prevent any nomination, I'd opt for an Adapted Screenplay apocalypse in which Frankenstein and Hamnet--arguably two of the worst screenplays of the year--are consigned to the hell they belong. Hey, throw in Train Dreams and One Battle After Another. Complete Adapted Screenplay overhaul! Make that category unrecognizable!

And that's it for now! In about 13 hours, all thes epredictions will mean nothing, which is just how I like it. I'll be back in the morning to unpack the fresh horrors that await, but until then, feel free to share your hopes and dreams, so that they can join mine in the Academy garbage chute tomorrow morning!

Final Oscar Predictions 2024: Could Someone Please Politely Ask the Hounds We Released to Shave Timothée Chalamet's Mustache, And Other Important Tragedies

 

Why yes, I do make all of my pictures in microsoft powerpoint, why do you ask

If this Oscar year is anything, it might be the year of the impossible. Now, I'm not referring to seemingly impossible Oscar propositions like reuniting the cast of Mighty Ducks to sing "We Are the Champion" while Marguerite Moreau pirouettes on stage while the nation of Iceland sinks into the sea in the background (for budgetary reasons), or even the Academy inviting Shakira to sing an unintelligible medley of songs from all my favorite movie music moments of the early 2000s (ever wondered what Shakira would do with the song Cliff writes for Torrance in Bring it On immediately followed by her performing both sides of Moulin Rouge's "Elephant Love Medley?" Join my letter writing campaign!). No, the (unfortunately fun, if just as exciting) impossible proposition this year is that everything that might win an Oscar seems kind of preposterous. What wins best picture? Who knows, probably none of them! Will we all have to start saying two-time Oscar winner Adrien Brody or will Timothée Chalamet's horrible mustache crawl onto the stage like something fell of the Thing from The Thing? Which insipidly made short film with a powerful story behind it will win best live action short? 

In summary: who greenlit these Oscars? What were they thinking? Maybe this wild and scattered year is indicative of a Hollywood that doesn't itself know what it is anymore, or what it wants to greenlight, or maybe it's indicative of a largest ever Academy membership (over 10,000 members), all of whom are currently literally wrestling each other to determine the Academy's new identity (word on the street is that Harrison Ford and Lupita Nyong'o punching much over their metaphorical weight, but every person in France is banding together to stomp on every other member's toes). Maybe I'm just responding like this because I've had a largely off-consensus year and am struggling to muster too much enthusiasm for much of the assumed winners, but I can't help but wonder how we got such an amorphous and atraditional (or very traditional? hard to say) year, especially coming right on the heels of such determined and lockstep years that saw Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer vying to establish a New Brand (TM) for the Academy. And I can't help but wonder if this year's dubious flailing is a sign of something else.

But, as Shakespeare famously said: Ours is not to question why, our is but to offer some misguided predictions and die. And I am definitely going to do both of those things within the next three hours! And whatever the Oscars do, I'll always be there, staring melodramatically into the middle distance. The Oscars have been part of my life for actual decades now (and predicting them has been too--where has the time gone, other than to the curséd urn that the producers of Crash keep buried somewhere under the 405 in order to continue leeching our lives away from us), and it's hard to imagine a year that doesn't end (or begin) with them as a joyous summary and caesura. I do love it here, no matter how hard the Academy tries to convince us all that we shouldn't love it, and will continue to do so until either the Oscars or I are wrestled from our mortal coil and then have to go do the Oscars in hell where we belong (I think those are just the Razzies, but what do I know). 

So let's get to it! I've got the Challengers soundtrack blaring (again) (will I ever be free of these dance beats) and I'm excited to confront all the chaos face-on, if not necessarily make sense of it. Do remember that I tend to make predictions more for fun than for accuracy. There are plenty of websites out there willing to grind some statistics to help you win your Oscar pool, but I'll always use this space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds. As chance would have it, I've seen every nominee in every single category this year, including the shorts--only the third time I've managed that feat in my time as a haggard Oscar professional. So I'll be able to provide informed category in every category and then giddily toss that information into the sea--who wants to be informed when you can predict something silly?

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

I might be overestimating the potential calamities in store here, as Anora has won enough precursor wins and general momentum to carry it across the finish line here. But--just for fun--what if the polarizing movie about sex work from a previously unembraced director weren't an automatic win for the same film prize previously won by Driving Miss Daisy and Coda? Anora is the obvious answer, but it also feels impossible; then again, so does its nearest competition. Everyone on Earth other than awards voters, seemingly, hates Emilia Perez--it's controversial, it's poorly reviewed, it kind of stars a white supremacist. But it's the most nominated movie and continues to sweep up prizes across the world, so it has to be considered. The Brutalist seems like a traditional choice--until that second half happens, anyway. It's big, it's bold, it's respected, but its polarizing second half makes it feel impossible too. Conclave is another easy traditional pick, and a movie that's hard to dislike, but where has its momentum been? It stumbled pretty significantly with the nominations and is relying on a BAFTA win to fill its sails--it feels both highly likely and totally inert. I've been tempted to call for a CODA-esque shock victory for I'm Still Here, but surely we'd have felt some trace of that these past months? And don't get me started on Dune, Wicked, Nickel Boys, or The Substance--all strong movies with insurmountable hurdles. So if literally everything feels impossible, I guess the only (boring) solution is to pick the impossible movie with the most obvious argument.

Will Win: Anora
Could Win: Conclave
Should Win: Wicked
Should Have Been Here: Challengers

Director
Jacques Audiard-Emilia Perez
Sean Baker-Anora
Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat-The Substance
James Mangold-A Complete Unknown

Much simpler to narrow this down--either Baker or Corbet will walk away with the trophy. Baker's argument is probably more compelling: he's directing the best picture frontrunner, he won the DGA award which has gone to about 80% of past Oscar winners in this category in the last 20 years, and he's in the kind of place in his career where major recognition might feel due. That said, Brady Corbet's The Brutalist is arguably larger, flashier, and more difficult--the kind of movie that routinely wins this kind of prize, even if it can't gain traction much of anywhere else. It'd be silly to count Corbet out, even if Anora has the advantage. Otherwise, it's difficult to imagine anyone else in this category scraping together enough win equity to slide past the top two.

Will Win: Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Could Win: Sean Baker-Anora
Should Win: Coralie Fargeta-The Substance
Should Have Been Here: Luca Guadagnino-Challengers

Actress
Cynthia Erivo-Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon-Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison-Anora
Demi Moore-The Substance
Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here

One of the tightest categories of the year--a breathless three-way race that could fall in any direction. Mikey Madison might seem like a safe choice--she helms the best picture frontrunner, her character gets to do love, comedy, heartbreak, drugs, etc., aka the kinds of showy things that Oscar loves, and she's fairly early in her career and feels like a discovery, which is exactly where the Academy likes a person in this category to be. That said, the momentum is very much against her: after Demi Moore's moving and personal speech at the Golden Globes, Moore has won every single major film prize other than the BAFTA (which, to be fair, is one of the last prizes given and could suggest a late shift back to Madison...though, to be fair again, Moore won the SAG award, which was the very last prize given, so maybe it signifies nothing). All that said, consider Fernanda Torres. She wasn't considered a lock for a nomination, and probably wouldn't be in this conversation if it weren't for I'm Still Here getting a surprise best picture nomination. Suddenly, tons of people are watching her movie who wouldn't have previously, and plenty of them will probably be changing their vote in this category upon doing so, as her performance is something special--and it'll feel fresh, given most people will have seen that movie for the first time within the last six weeks. And on top of that, Torres wasn't nominated for any of the major awards that have been given in the past two months, which means that she's never had to directly compete with Madison and Moore. So, to recap: Madison could get through on early momentum and late-breaking momentum, Moore could take it with industry love and a robust precursor performance but might be hurt by performing in a horror movie (a genre that rarely succeeds at the Oscars), and Torres could sneak through by being the best and newest thing that everyone has seen recently. Madness! I wouldn't be surprised by any of those scenarios. 

Will Win: Demi Moore-The Substance
Could Win: Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here
Should Win: Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here (but I will be *thrilled* to see Demi Moore with that Oscar)
Should Have Been Here: Katy O'Brian-Love Lies Bleeding

Actor
Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes-Conclave
Sebastian Stan-The Apprentice

Extremely tight sprint to the finish between Brody and Chalamet here. What wins? Brody's got the early momentum, and has won most of the prizes, but The Brutalist is flagging in almost every category and people might question whether Brody is the kind of actor who should have two statues (not that this kind of number-crushing generally affects the Academy much). Chalamet's playing a real person (and it's actually surprisingly uncommon for the acting Oscars to go entirely to people playing original characters), he sings, and he sportscasts (not in the movie) (I think), but he's also very young to win here. If he won, he'd become the youngest person to ever win this category. (And fun fact: the current holder of that title is Adrien Brody, who won his first Oscar 22 years ago for The Pianist). It's a toss-up: veteran actor with an emotional performance in a struggling best picture nominee vs. a historically young opponent playing a real person in a late-breaking best picture nominee. Flip a coin and pray this doesn't all go to Timmy's head.

Will Win: Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Could Win: Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Should Win: Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Should Have Been Here: Sebastian Stan-A Different Man

Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro-A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande-Wicked
Felicity Jones-The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini-Conclave
Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez

After all the intrigue of the lead categories, the supporting categories are going to give us a much-needed break. Despite Emilia Perez's constant controversies, this category is one that it has consistently won, and it's tough to think of a narrative compelling enough to dethrone Saldaña's 'I have been covered in paint and pixels for fifteen years and am ready for someone to actually goddamn see me' storyline. People loved Grande's Glinda and were impressed that she could actually act, but her win potential gets undermined by the fact that Wicked 2 will come out this year--but watch for her next year. It'd be neat to see Rossellini's respect in the industry and veteran status come through for a win here, but it's more or less inconceivable to imagine that happening for a performance that is largely wordless and only seven minutes long--especially when her biggest competition is in almost every scene of a 150-minute movie.

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez
Could Win: Ariana Grande-Wicked
Should Win: Ariana Grande-Wicked
Should Have Been Here: Anna Baryshnikov-Love Lies Bleeding

Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov-Anora
Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce-The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong-The Apprentice

Here's one of the easiest categories this year: Culkin's every major prize this year and is still riding high on Succession love, as well as providing an easy place for Real Pain fans to congregate after the movie stumbled at the nominations. No one else in this category has the acclaim, the narrative, or the momentum--he's in for sure.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Could Win: Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Here: Clarence Maclin-Sing Sing

Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Substance
September 5

Am I making this more complicated than it needs to be? Like, Anora's has the most best picture steam in this category, it's got a memorable premise, and feels 'writerly' in its improvised-ish feel. So why am I questioning my pick here? If The Brutalist isn't as dead in the water as people think, it could show here. The Real Pain fans that I just mentioned could easily congregate here to reward Jesse Eisenberg for writing, directing, producing, and acting in the movie, and it's got the snappy dialogue and freestanding monologues that the Academy loves to reward here. Even The Substance, with a premise that no one is going to actively forget, could triumph here--hell, it won the screenplay award at Cannes and is clearly getting votes in other categories, so why not here? In short, this category is probably easy, but I am wringing my hands over it like someone who just got their hands stuck in a wringer.

Will Win: Anora
Could Win: A Real Pain
Should Win: A Real Pain
Should Have Been Here: Challengers

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing

Much less hand-wringing here (which is good, because the owner of the previous wringer is very upset with me and all the fingers I left behind). Conclave's the only one of this group that's got any best picture stream and isn't also a widely derided musical (only one musical has ever won a screenplay Oscar, which suggests that being widely derided is enough to count a certain cartel leader/beneficent saint out of the running). 

Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: Nickel Boys
Should Win: Nickel Boys
Should Have Been Here: Laapataa Ladies

Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked

Oh look, it's another category that I'm over-complicating! Wicked is the obvious frontrunner, but I can't help but pay attention to all the juicy narratives floating around it. The first Dune won six Oscars--is it ridiculous to assume its fans will show up to these Oscars again, at least in some capacity? Nosferatu surely has to be considered a stealth contender in every category it's in: people love it, they love the look of it, and are surely feral at the thought of rewarding all those monochrome settings. And The Brutalist is a big prestige pic (arguably prestige-r than Wicked) whose plot relies on--and calls attention to--the film's design. Surely one of those is capable of muscling past Wicked's big, pretty sets, especially since Wicked's Oscar hopes have collapsed in almost every other category.

Will Win: The Brutalist
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: The Brutalist
Should Have Been Here: Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In

Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked

At last, a chance for me to catch my breath. It's groovy to have a year in which so many categories are up in the air (or at least vaguely competitive, which is more than we can say for most years), but it's way more effort to wrack my brain over the possible scenarios than it is to point at something and shriek a little. So here I am, pointing and shrieking at Wicked in the one category that it can't possibly lose.

Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: Nosferatu
Should Win: Nosferatu
Should Have Been Here: Laapataa Ladies

Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

Oh look, another category primed to be shrieked at! It's possible that a legion of Wicked fans frog-marches into categories like these and nabs the statues from other, more plausible victors, but I'm just going to assume that the Academy, like me, is super enthused by all the worm stuff and will just check Dune's name and move on.

Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Have Been Here: I Saw the TV Glow

Makeup
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

Very similar to the previous category, in that the theoretical Wicked legions are the biggest obstacle to the presumptive frontrunner's success. In this case, that's The Substance, which has a slightly more uphill battle than Dune's in the previous category: this award has very rarely gone to horror, body horror, gore, etc., which might be enough for Wicked's more family-friendly fare (or Nosferatu's rotten prosthetic penis, I guess?) to triumph. Still, I have to imagine that if it's gotten this far, The Substance is winning--who isn't talking about that movie's makeup as they walk out the door and directly to their therapist's office?

Will Win: The Substance
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: The Substance
Should Have Been Here: Alien: Romulus

Film Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked

Kind of a bizarre category this year in that none of the potential arguments really rely on the movies themselves. Film Editing's always been pretty tied to the best picture category, but has gotten egregiously so in the past ten years; I don't know that anyone would argue that the above movies are the actual best representations of quality editing this year, but they certainly were the top five best picture hopefuls around when the nominations came out. So it feels like you can just order this category as you did best picture, and you'll have the same amount of success in both categories. That said, Conclave arguably has the most artistry (or attempt at that) of the nominees, so it might win just by virtue of being structured like a thriller. In short: whichever movie wins this Oscar will probably win best picture, unless it's Conclave, in which case nothing means anything and we should all go home.

Will Win: Anora
Could Win: Conclave
Should Win: Conclave
Should Have Been Here: Challengers

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Maria
Nosferatu

Another refreshingly competitive category--isn't this fun, after two years of juggernaut best picture winners and mini-juggernauts next to them? The Brutalist feels like the default frontrunner for all the same reasons that it's competitive in best picture: it's big, it's bold, it's flashy, it flips the statue of liberty on its head and then makes you consider Adrien Brody's pubes, etc. Still, it's not set in concrete: I still believe that Dune's previous fans might show up somewhere, and this seems as likely as anywhere else, especially with popular DP Greig Frasier at the wheel. Nosferatu has also been widely embraced, it's won a number of cinematography prizes, and offers a painterly alternative to The Brutalist's more lived in landscapes. Heck, even Maria picked up a major prize. And maybe we've got an impending Emilia Perez sweep, followed shortly thereafter by the sun being blotted out by 10,000 flying scorpions! Anything is possible!

Will Win: Nosferatu
Could Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Nosferatu
Should Have Been Here: All We Imagine as Light

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Oh look, it's my favorite category--ones with obvious frontrunners that I have nevertheless convinced myself are impossible to predict! Why do I do this to myself! The Brutalist is the obvious answer--the score is bold, memorable, and love for this movie will have to manifest somewhere. However. Despite how much we all hate Emilia Perez, it is the most nominated movie, one that has won tons of other prizes, and is a wholly original musical...that is nominated in a music category. Surely that has to be an option. And on that front, what stops Wicked from piggybacking on the same argument? Are we really assuming that the average voter can tell the composition that were written for the stage show from the ones that were written for the movie--doesn't its presence in this category suggest that they can't? And if so, why wouldn't it win the 'sure, it's a musical, give it to that, it's got music right there in the title' award? And Conclave and The Wild Robot have both received plenty of love for their music and for plenty of other things besides. So call The Brutalist the frontrunner if you want (...if only because it clearly is), but I feel like this category's ripe for anarchy.

Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Conclave
Should Have Been Here: Challengers

Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Dune is definitely bolstered by the fact that its three main competitors are so similar: three best picture hopefuls that are musicals or music-related. As such, it's easy to assume that those three movies split the votes and allow Dune to sail through.

Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Win: A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Have Been Here: The Substance

Original Song
"The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
"Like a Bird"-Sing Sing
"Mi Camino"-Emilia Perez
"El Mal"-Emilia Perez
"Never Too Late"-Elton John: Never Too Late

As we gaze into this, surely one of the deepest and darkest abysses to ever open up beneath this category's feet, we have to ask ourselves one question: what can I, a citizen, do to stop Emilia Perez's inevitable march to a win here? Unfortunately, not too much. Look, I want to see an Oscar in the hands of Diane Warren, She Who Blacks Out the Sky With Her Hands And Plucks The Stars From The Night In Order To Write Little Ballads About Them, Consort of Moloch and Mother Of Tiny Golden Dragons, as much as the next person, but I just don't know if she's getting there for a forgettable song in a movie no one saw. And it's true that Elton John has only ever lost an Oscar to himself, but that stat sounds more impressive if you don't know he's only been nominated in two separate years. Still, we can dream.

Will Win: "El Mal"-Emilia Perez
Could Win: "The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
Should Win: "The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
Should Have Been Here: "Starburned and Unkissed"-I Saw the TV Glow

Animated Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

Finally, a rest for my poor reeling mind: The Wild Robot wins this in a nonchalant mosey into the woods.

Will Win: The Wild Robot
Could Win: Flow
Should Win: Flow
Should Have Been Here: The Missing

International Film
Emilia Perez-France
Flow-Latvia
The Girl with the Needle-Denmark
I'm Still Here-Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig-Germany

Your pick in this category depends on how much you believe in Emilia Perez's fall from grace. Are Academy voters sick of the controversy? Did the backlash finally take hold? If so, go for I'm Still Here. Do we believe in the Perez backlash primarily because we hate it and not because it's been reflected by the voters or by the industry? Go for Emilia Perez. Either way, no movie that's ever been nominated for both best picture and this category has ever lost in this category, so it's got to be one of the two.

Will Win: Emilia Perez
Could Win: I'm Still Here
Should Win: Flow
Should Have Been Here: Kneecap

Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane

The main--unpleasant--question to ask here is to what extent the Academy supports the genocide in Palestine. The reaction to Johnathan Glazer's acceptance speech last year, wherein he decried Israel's actions, certainly suggest that there are plenty of people in the Academy who aren't looking to reward a Palestinian documentary about Israeli incursions onto Palestinian land. That doc (No Other Land) is certainly the frontrunner, but we have to at least consider realities in which the Academy looks elsewhere for political reasons. If so, Porcelain War is the easy answer--a doc about the Ukrainian war won last year, and Ukraine could be a, uh, welcome refuge from controversy. I could see Black Box Diaries also benefitting from people looking for a place to land: it's emotionally resonant and sticks out from the others (it's the only one of the nominees not at least tangentially about genocide). I think No Other Land will carry the day--no other doc is as buzzy and relevant this year--but who knows? Stranger things have happened than a powerful institution deciding it wasn't interested in what was happening.

Will Win: No Other Land
Could Win: Porcelain War
Should Win: No Other Land
Should Have Been Here: Dahomey

And that's that! Currently, I don't have any movie being particularly dominant, with Anora and The Brutalist each taking three wins. I have to admit that I'm not feeling confident about a number of my calls this year--am I being riskier, are things tougher to predict, or am I just an idiot? (It's probably all three, so like don't base your Oscar pools on what I'm picking, because I am gonna get buried this year.)

Well, whatever happens, and we all get to enjoy watching it happen in slow motion. But we can embrace whatever happens as well as embracing the joy that comes with not knowing--just imagine all of us coming back here in three days to try and re-live the halcyon days in which we didn't know Emilia Perez would go on an unprecedented winning streak. 

Oscar Predictions 2024: Who Wants to Watch Emilia Perez (maroon several polar bears)?

I do, but I can't stop laughing at this.

 

So things are, as it turns out, a bit of a mess.

I don't know if it's because it actually happens, or because I'm good at projecting my own thoughts and experiences onto the world around me, or if because my penchant for grandiose bullshittery leads me to broken clocks that are right at least once a year, but every year it seems like the narrative of the Oscars maps uncannily onto the narrative of the world writ large as well as (writ somewhat less large) onto my life. It's a bizarre balancing act of reading the tea leaves and quietly pushing the tea leaves into the pattern you want and then also sometimes there's a Godzilla nearby (not this year, necessarily, but we do have some horny bisexual tennis pros waiting in the wings, and that's not nothing).

So what is that narrative? Last year I (kind of justly) celebrated the return of capital-C Cinema after the pandemic, things returning to some kind of normal at the box office while the Academy broadened its reach for what it considered the 'best' of the year--even though the results of that broadened love limited the chances of movies not nominated for best picture to be nominated in other categories. And all of that was true and right at the time, but why don't we, uh, go ahead and look around and see how much we see that feels triumphant and right. (Did you see look around and see Colman Domingo winning an Oscar? I didn't.) This year--in every possible scale and sense--is a bit of a mess. Where last year we had ten consensus movies marching to the finale with one obvious winner joyously riding its atomic bomb right into the Oscar-clad ground. This year we have one of the stranger Oscar bunches in recent history, in that none of them seem plausible as nominees, much less winners. An explicit tragicomedy about a sex worker from a director who's always been shunned by the Academy? Yes! A nearly four hour long epic about architecture that goes places you definitely did not see coming, directed by someone who has never made a movie that grossed more than $1 million until now? Yes! A body horror Movie in which an industrial amount of fake blood is squirted out a disembodied limb like a firehose? Yes! That movie from France about Mexico that you probably only know because of the "penis to vaginaaaa" clip that went around twitter and tiktok, the one that everyone except awards voters seem to hate? Yes Yes Yes Yes! And that's not even mentioning Wicked, which, in the weirdest twist of the year, actually turned out good--and look at what we had to do to the timeline to create a reality in which that makes sense.

Point is, things are gonna be goofy, if nothing else. This will be a year where the peppy young Oscar scholars of the future will stare at the winners with a mixture of fear and awe (you know, kind of like how 2005 saw a four-way tie for most Oscar wins of the year between Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha, and King Kong, and then the other Oscars went to Rachel Weisz, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," and a Narnia movie). So everyone hold onto their respective butts (or the butts of a nearby loved one), because the next month and a half is gonna be silly.

Oscar nominations come out tomorrow morning, by which point I will be far, far away from here (wherein 'here' probably means 'any plane of reality in which Challengers gets the recognition it deserves,' unfortunately), and all of this will be meaningless, but that doesn't mean that I'm not gonna burn all of our time by writing a few thousands words about what might happen between now and then. Every year around Oscar nominations, my molecules slight vibrating at a slightly different frequency from the rest of the galaxy, and the ramifications of that are a) I have a wonderful time doing this, and b) that I predict a bunch of implausible surprises that certainly won't happen, but wouldn't it be fun if they did? So bear that in mind as you follow along--there are plenty of websites that are predicting for accuracy, but I tend to stray into predicting as a way of attempting to cosmos along its rightful path. (God, writing this to The Brutalist soundtrack is making the tone of this so weird.) And that cosmos ain't gonna right itself (clearly), so now I'm just gonna have to go predict an alternate timeline in which Kneecap gets to perform at the Oscars--and I couldn't be happier. So let's get to it!

(Note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood, so the first movie listed is most likely, the second is next most likely, etc.) 

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Sing Sing
Nosferatu
Alternate: A Real Pain

Screw it, I have a proud tradition of making nine level-headed predictions in this category and then opting for anarchy. It's ridiculous of me not to pick A Real Pain or Nickel Boys for that tenth spot, but Nosferatu peaked at the right time, it's done great with awards organizations, and was a big and unexpected box office success. Plus, it's looking to get four to six other nominations, and in this era of the Academy, it makes more sense to just shuffle it into best picture instead of assuming it can hit those numbers without a nomination here. Beyond that tenth spot, I'm confident on just about everything else, though Sing Sing has been looking weak recently. Look for the aforementioned Real Pain/Nickel Boys to sneak in if so, or possibly something wild like Challengers, September 5, or All We Imagine as Light. (I kept wanting to predict Juror No. 2 as the first one-nomination best picture nominee in decades but I just wasn't strong enough. Still, if that happens, let's all pretend that I did.)

Director
Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Sean Baker-Anora
Edward Berger-Conclave
Jacques Audiard-Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat-The Substance
Alternate: RaMell Ross-Nickel Boys

Looking to be a grim category for me with both Jacques Audiard sneaking in for his own brand of dull madness as well as my nemesis, Edward Berger (look, I like Conclave as much as the next person, but you need to do a lot more than one fun pope movie before crawling out of the hole that making All Quiet on the Western Front dug you). This feels like a category with exactly one line of wiggle room, which I'm granting Fargeat for her anything but dull madness in The Substance. I know picking Payal Kapadia/All We Imagine as Light is the hip choice, and there's an argument to be made for her taking the cool new international slot that's seemed all but guaranteed for the past few years, but I'd counterargue that Audiard and Fargeat are already camping on that spot. Look for James Mangold and Jon M. Chu if A Complete Unknown and Wicked do better than expected, but I'm not convinced. Also, am I an idiot for not mentioning Denis Villeneuve and Dune til the end? Probably.

Actress
Mikey Madison-Anora
Demi Moore-The Substance
Karla Sofia Gascon-Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo-Wicked
Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here
Alternate: Marianne Jean-Baptiste-Hard Truths

Sticking with the consensus here, even though I strongly considered something plausibly surprising (like Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl or Nicole Kidman in Babygirl) or implausibly surprising (like Lily-Rose Depp in Nosferatu). But I'm Still Here has been gaining steam, and it'd be unproductively silly to pretend like I can't see that for the sake of being able to say Academy Award Nominee Pamela Anderson for about 18 hours.

Actor
Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes-Conclave
Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Sebastian Stan-The Apprentice
Alternate: Daniel Craig-Queer

Look, this is probably the easiest category for us to get right--just swap Daniel Craig in there and you're golden. But I'm going for the riskier call that Queer is a little too gay and strange for the Academy, that Sebastian Stan's stellar year as a serious actor debutante will warrant some reward, and that Jeremy Strong's recent awards success for the same movie will have people considering Stan too. I'd love to see Hugh Grant get in here for Heretic--maybe more than I want to see any other acting nomination, just for the novelty alone--but I know a pipe dream that wants to invite me into its creepy religion basement when I see one.

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande-Wicked
Isabella Rossellini-Conclave
Jamie Lee Curtis-The Last Showgirl
Adriana Paz-Emilia Perez
Alternate: Danielle Deadwyler-The Piano Lesson

Doing something deeply stupid here. Everyone's talking about Emilia Perez getting dual supporting noms, and why not (other than the obvious)? But while everyone's looking at Selena Gomez, who's been taking heat for her performance, her Spanish, and the fact of her existence, I guess, I'm looking at Adriana Paz, who is wonderful and unsung. It probably won't happen, but it just might, so here we are. Hate leaving Deadwyler in sixth place for another year, but that's looking like her face. This is a weirdly volatile category, though--anyone beyond the first two slots is vulnerable. Look for Margaret Qualley/The Substance, Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown, and Felicity Jones/The Brutalist to make an appearance if their films surge, or Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor/Nickel Boys or Joan Chen/Didi for a surprise.

Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Guy Pearce-The Brutalist
Yura Borisov-Anora
Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Denzel Washington-Gladiator II
Alternate: Clarence Maclin-Sing Sing

Once again, a category with exactly one spot open and an absolute mud-wrestle to fill it. While I had sweet and calming dreams about Ridley Scott weeping on Oscar morning, throwing his little toys into the toilet while lamenting Gladiator II's complete and glorious Oscar snub, I can't deny that Denzel is one of the biggest living awards magnets; I think he resurrects his early season momentum and slides in. Maclin would be great to see, and could happen, but it's up in the air. Look for Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice as a likely challenger (is it dumb that I'm predicting Sebastian Stan getting in without Jeremy Strong? Probably). And not that I'm saying this *should* happen, but wouldn't it be a nice little treat for all of us if the Academy saw fit to honor Jonathan Bailey for being everyone's hot little dancing friend in Wicked?

Original Screenplay
Anora
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
The Substance
Civil War
Alternate: Challengers

Look, I have been sitting on a shocking Saturday Night screenplay nomination for months now, and it doesn't please me to lose my nerve any more than the prospect of watching Civil War pleases me. But I've decided to let go of one patented silly prediction in favor of another one. And realistically, no one knows who's going to get that fourth slot. Is it Challengers? Fun, but unlikely. Is it Hard Truths? Tiny, and not particularly well loved. All We Imagine as Light or The Seed of the Sacred Fig? Why haven't they been a bigger presence on the awards circuit thus far? September 5? I'm not even sure this movie exists--I've never seen anything about it in the real world apart from on Oscar blogs. Everyone's going to be throwing a dart in this category, and I'm throwing mine, with force and gusto, at Alex Garland.

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Sing Sing
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Alternate: Nosferatu

Feels like one of the most ironclad categories--does anything have the juice to break in here? Wicked or Dune or I'm Still Here if they're strong enough, but I'm not convinced they are. This feels like the final five; now watch me assert this with confidence and get it entirely wrong tomorrow.

Production Design
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Conclave
Alternate: A Complete Unknown

Kills me not to have A Complete Unknown in here, which feels like an obvious choice that we'll all be kicking ourselves about tomorrow, but I just couldn't make sense out of demoting any of the other five. Feels like another fairly congealed category? Gladiator, The Substance, or maybe something out of left field like Blitz or Furiosa as surprises, but the top five feels like the right five.

Costume Design
Wicked
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
The Substance
The Book of Clarence
Alternate: Conclave

Feels ridiculous not to have Gladiator II and Conclave in here, both almost certainly destined for a nomination, but sometimes I just want to kick a jar of gumballs onto a roller skating rink and enjoy a little anarchy. The Substance feels like the kind of sneaky-obvious pick for this category that everyone pretends they saw coming after the fact (the yellow jacket! that cinderella gown!), and The Book of Clarence is a dumb hunch that I've had ever since seeing the trailer a year ago, and I, like all fans of 1996's biggest animated hit, love my dumb hunches. 

Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Better Man
Alien: Romulus
Alternate: Gladiator II

And while we're on the subject of following your silly gut feelings until they lead you into a dark well within which a wise goblin sage who refuses to tell you anything lives, why not add Alien here? It's had a stronger precursor showing in multiple categories than expected. I know that I shouldn't be blanking Gladiator in (almost) every category, but the thing about that is that I want to, and none of Ridley Scott's hired goons will arrive here to break my fingers before morning, and by then it'll be too late.

Makeup
Wicked
Nosferatu
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Alternate: Emilia Perez

Toyed with the idea of a surprise snub for both Dune and The Substance, but couldn't write myself a compelling enough argument for any of the other potential nominees. This category feels like a significant bellwether for Emilia Perez fans (or haters)--getting in here probably means that it's going to have a huge morning. I'd love to see the Sebastian Stan double feature The Apprentice and A Different Man get in--partly because they're worthy, but maybe more so because then the Oscar telecast would very briefly become a masterclass on gluing things to Sebastian Stan's face.

Film Editing
Dune: Part Two
Anora
Conclave
The Brutalist
Challengers
Alternate: Emilia Perez

Sticking my lonely flag into the tennis court to stand up for Challengers. Probably silly to think it makes it into this category that has been so dominated by best picture nominees (and winners) in recent years, but if Josh O'Connor can work up the courage to slap Mike Faist's turgid wiener, then so can I (metaphorically speaking). Otherwise, treat this category like you'd treat best picture: pick Perez, Wicked, The Substance, or A Complete Unknown if you're expecting them to surge.

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
Conclave
The Girl with the Needle
Alternate: Nickel Boys

Feels wrong not to have Nickel Boys--or A Complete Unknown, but for very different reasons--but when has this category ever been able to turn down a black and white movie? Hence Girl with the Needle sneaking into my predictions and then lying there like an ungainly doorstop, grumpily barring other, larger contenders from entering. I know I just said that Makeup would be a big category for Emilia Perez, but if it gets into this one (heaven forbid), then it could honestly break the record for the most nominations of all time. God, just wash that sentence around in your mouth a bit and try to swallow it. 

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
The Wild Robot
Challengers
Alternate: Nosferatu

Every time I type 'Emilia Perez,' twelve weeping polar bears get set adrift in a dark and uncaring sea, never to return to land. And I am far from done typing that, so those polar bears are gonna have to buckle up. This category feels simultaneously totally set and strangely volatile. It's hard to imagine any of the top five missing, but then again, it's hard to imagine Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door and Wicked missing, so there you go. I'll either go 5/5 in this category or 2/5--madness!

Sound
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
Gladiator II
Emilia Perez
Alternate: Blitz

And there go another twelve polar bears! Atypical to have such a musical-heavy category (three out of five of the movies are musicals or music-related), even in a category that's notoriously fond of a tune or two. I was tempted to toss Alien: Romulus in here as well, just to try and curry favor with my local xenomorph (or maybe to see if I could get that xenomorph to eat a few of the other nominees), but decided against it (bribing a xenomorph is wrong). I swear, if the Academy goes and nominates the Joker sequel in this category I am going to march right to Hollywood and start throwing bricks through every window I see.

Original Song
"El Mal"-Emilia Perez
"The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
"Mi Camino"-Emilia Perez
"Never Too Late"-Elton John: Never Too Late
"Sick in the Head"-Kneecap
Alternate: "Kiss the Sky"-The Wild Robot

That's right, I am eschewing the frontrunner hits from The Wild Robot, Challengers, Will and Harper, and Piece by Piece in favor of a song by that band that is perhaps most famous for doing a shit-ton of cocaine on stage. Everyone wins! God, I want a Kneecap performance at the Oscars so bad. I will make a dark deal with whatever eldritch entity Diane Warren has shackled, I will give that entity whatever it takes to get Kneecap throwing drugs out into the audience onto a deeply confused (but grateful) John Williams. Please universe/Diane Warren's shadow demon, please make this happen. And speaking of Diane Warren's unholy union with the darkness, everything looks good for her song, "The Journey"--the blood pact will be renewed, the old flesh shall die, long live the new flesh, tremble before the creeping darkness! Seriously though, who will stop Diane Warren.
(I realize that, without context, this paragraph is deeply unhinged. But I assure that, with context, it is somber and horrifying.)

Animated Film
The Wild Robot
Flow
Inside Out 2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Memoir of a Snail
Alternate: Moana 2

Very little intrigue here--these five nominees have been up for almost every prize in sight for the last three months, with nary a stray vote to any other movie to spoil their fun. Moana 2's the likeliest spoiler, but no one particularly liked Moana 2 (except for millions upon millions of ticket buyers).

International Film
Emilia Perez-France
I'm Still Here-Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig-Germany
Kneecap-Ireland
Flow-Latvia
Alternate-The Girl with the Needle-Denmark

Thankfully, this is Emilia Perez's last probably nomination (he says, gazing toward the horizon at hundreds of weeping polar bears, marooned to a dismal fate on the high seas). The top three are locked in, and the final two are up to a cage match between the movies listed above and Italy's Vermiglio. That said, this category throws frequent curveballs: should I be on the lookout for Palestine's From Ground Zero? Canada's Universal Language? Thailand's How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies? I'd expect a surprise somewhere.

Documentary Feature
No Other Land
Sugarcane
Daughters
Black Box Diaries
Porcelain War
Alternate: Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Year in and year out, this is the category I know the least about/struggle to care about the most. One of these years I'm gonna rectify that, but it certainly hasn't been this one, so behold! The darts I have thrown. Going with the traditional snub of the mainstream crowd-pleasing frontrunner (Will and Harper), but I do wonder if we shouldn't all be predicting a No Other Land snub as well. The movie's been controversial (due to, uh, being filmed in Palestine and all that that currently entails), and I could see politics keeping it out of the lineup, unfortunately. 

And there you have it! For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:

Emilia Perez-11
The Brutalist-9
Conclave-9
Dune: Part Two-8
Wicked-8

I have to admit that I don't feel exceptionally confident about a lot of these, but like I said at the beginning: it's a wacky year, so why not lean into the wackiness?

I know it's silly to spend this much time talking about potential Oscar nominations without talking about any of my own picks--and trust me, those are definitely the freight train at the end of the tunnel whose light you're seeing. I'm aiming for some time in mid-February, depending on what movies I can see/what happens in my life/whether or not I can fight off Ridley Scott's finger-breaking goons. But for now, I'll say that if I could guarantee any nominations, it would be for Challengers pretty much anywhere (but particularly in screenplay and score), though I would reeeeeaaally like to see a Hugh Grant/Heretic nomination. If I could prevent any nomination--well, I don't think it will come as a surprise to anyone that I do not count myself among Emilia Perez's biggest fans, so we'll skip those and say that Jamie Lee Curtis's upcoming Supporting Actress nomination is one that totally mystifies me, even as a lifelong fan.

And that's it! By this time tomorrow, all of these predictions will be meaningless, which is just the way I like it. I'm actually going to be away from my computer til Monday or Tuesday, so I won't be back tomorrow with my reactions (the shock! the horror! the madness!), but rest assured that I will return some time next week to unleash my particular flavor of Oscar silliness on the world.