If this Oscar year is anything, it might be the year of the impossible. Now, I'm not referring to seemingly impossible Oscar propositions like reuniting the cast of Mighty Ducks to sing "We Are the Champion" while Marguerite Moreau pirouettes on stage while the nation of Iceland sinks into the sea in the background (for budgetary reasons), or even the Academy inviting Shakira to sing an unintelligible medley of songs from all my favorite movie music moments of the early 2000s (ever wondered what Shakira would do with the song Cliff writes for Torrance in Bring it On immediately followed by her performing both sides of Moulin Rouge's "Elephant Love Medley?" Join my letter writing campaign!). No, the (unfortunately fun, if just as exciting) impossible proposition this year is that everything that might win an Oscar seems kind of preposterous. What wins best picture? Who knows, probably none of them! Will we all have to start saying two-time Oscar winner Adrien Brody or will Timothée Chalamet's horrible mustache crawl onto the stage like something fell of the Thing from The Thing? Which insipidly made short film with a powerful story behind it will win best live action short?
In summary: who greenlit these Oscars? What were they thinking? Maybe this wild and scattered year is indicative of a Hollywood that doesn't itself know what it is anymore, or what it wants to greenlight, or maybe it's indicative of a largest ever Academy membership (over 10,000 members), all of whom are currently literally wrestling each other to determine the Academy's new identity (word on the street is that Harrison Ford and Lupita Nyong'o punching much over their metaphorical weight, but every person in France is banding together to stomp on every other member's toes). Maybe I'm just responding like this because I've had a largely off-consensus year and am struggling to muster too much enthusiasm for much of the assumed winners, but I can't help but wonder how we got such an amorphous and atraditional (or very traditional? hard to say) year, especially coming right on the heels of such determined and lockstep years that saw Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer vying to establish a New Brand (TM) for the Academy. And I can't help but wonder if this year's dubious flailing is a sign of something else.
But, as Shakespeare famously said: Ours is not to question why, our is but to offer some misguided predictions and die. And I am definitely going to do both of those things within the next three hours! And whatever the Oscars do, I'll always be there, staring melodramatically into the middle distance. The Oscars have been part of my life for actual decades now (and predicting them has been too--where has the time gone, other than to the curséd urn that the producers of Crash keep buried somewhere under the 405 in order to continue leeching our lives away from us), and it's hard to imagine a year that doesn't end (or begin) with them as a joyous summary and caesura. I do love it here, no matter how hard the Academy tries to convince us all that we shouldn't love it, and will continue to do so until either the Oscars or I are wrestled from our mortal coil and then have to go do the Oscars in hell where we belong (I think those are just the Razzies, but what do I know).
So let's get to it! I've got the Challengers soundtrack blaring (again) (will I ever be free of these dance beats) and I'm excited to confront all the chaos face-on, if not necessarily make sense of it. Do remember that I tend to make predictions more for fun than for accuracy. There are plenty of websites out there willing to grind some statistics to help you win your Oscar pool, but I'll always use this space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds. As chance would have it, I've seen every nominee in every single category this year, including the shorts--only the third time I've managed that feat in my time as a haggard Oscar professional. So I'll be able to provide informed category in every category and then giddily toss that information into the sea--who wants to be informed when you can predict something silly?
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
I might be overestimating the potential calamities in store here, as Anora has won enough precursor wins and general momentum to carry it across the finish line here. But--just for fun--what if the polarizing movie about sex work from a previously unembraced director weren't an automatic win for the same film prize previously won by Driving Miss Daisy and Coda? Anora is the obvious answer, but it also feels impossible; then again, so does its nearest competition. Everyone on Earth other than awards voters, seemingly, hates Emilia Perez--it's controversial, it's poorly reviewed, it kind of stars a white supremacist. But it's the most nominated movie and continues to sweep up prizes across the world, so it has to be considered. The Brutalist seems like a traditional choice--until that second half happens, anyway. It's big, it's bold, it's respected, but its polarizing second half makes it feel impossible too. Conclave is another easy traditional pick, and a movie that's hard to dislike, but where has its momentum been? It stumbled pretty significantly with the nominations and is relying on a BAFTA win to fill its sails--it feels both highly likely and totally inert. I've been tempted to call for a CODA-esque shock victory for I'm Still Here, but surely we'd have felt some trace of that these past months? And don't get me started on Dune, Wicked, Nickel Boys, or The Substance--all strong movies with insurmountable hurdles. So if literally everything feels impossible, I guess the only (boring) solution is to pick the impossible movie with the most obvious argument.
Will Win: Anora
Could Win: Conclave
Should Win: Wicked
Should Have Been Here: Challengers
Director
Jacques Audiard-Emilia Perez
Sean Baker-Anora
Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat-The Substance
James Mangold-A Complete Unknown
Much simpler to narrow this down--either Baker or Corbet will walk away with the trophy. Baker's argument is probably more compelling: he's directing the best picture frontrunner, he won the DGA award which has gone to about 80% of past Oscar winners in this category in the last 20 years, and he's in the kind of place in his career where major recognition might feel due. That said, Brady Corbet's The Brutalist is arguably larger, flashier, and more difficult--the kind of movie that routinely wins this kind of prize, even if it can't gain traction much of anywhere else. It'd be silly to count Corbet out, even if Anora has the advantage. Otherwise, it's difficult to imagine anyone else in this category scraping together enough win equity to slide past the top two.
Will Win: Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Could Win: Sean Baker-Anora
Should Win: Coralie Fargeta-The Substance
Should Have Been Here: Luca Guadagnino-Challengers
Actress
Cynthia Erivo-Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon-Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison-Anora
Demi Moore-The Substance
Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here
One of the tightest categories of the year--a breathless three-way race that could fall in any direction. Mikey Madison might seem like a safe choice--she helms the best picture frontrunner, her character gets to do love, comedy, heartbreak, drugs, etc., aka the kinds of showy things that Oscar loves, and she's fairly early in her career and feels like a discovery, which is exactly where the Academy likes a person in this category to be. That said, the momentum is very much against her: after Demi Moore's moving and personal speech at the Golden Globes, Moore has won every single major film prize other than the BAFTA (which, to be fair, is one of the last prizes given and could suggest a late shift back to Madison...though, to be fair again, Moore won the SAG award, which was the very last prize given, so maybe it signifies nothing). All that said, consider Fernanda Torres. She wasn't considered a lock for a nomination, and probably wouldn't be in this conversation if it weren't for I'm Still Here getting a surprise best picture nomination. Suddenly, tons of people are watching her movie who wouldn't have previously, and plenty of them will probably be changing their vote in this category upon doing so, as her performance is something special--and it'll feel fresh, given most people will have seen that movie for the first time within the last six weeks. And on top of that, Torres wasn't nominated for any of the major awards that have been given in the past two months, which means that she's never had to directly compete with Madison and Moore. So, to recap: Madison could get through on early momentum and late-breaking momentum, Moore could take it with industry love and a robust precursor performance but might be hurt by performing in a horror movie (a genre that rarely succeeds at the Oscars), and Torres could sneak through by being the best and newest thing that everyone has seen recently. Madness! I wouldn't be surprised by any of those scenarios.
Will Win: Demi Moore-The Substance
Could Win: Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here
Should Win: Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here (but I will be *thrilled* to see Demi Moore with that Oscar)
Should Have Been Here: Katy O'Brian-Love Lies Bleeding
Actor
Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes-Conclave
Sebastian Stan-The Apprentice
Extremely tight sprint to the finish between Brody and Chalamet here. What wins? Brody's got the early momentum, and has won most of the prizes, but The Brutalist is flagging in almost every category and people might question whether Brody is the kind of actor who should have two statues (not that this kind of number-crushing generally affects the Academy much). Chalamet's playing a real person (and it's actually surprisingly uncommon for the acting Oscars to go entirely to people playing original characters), he sings, and he sportscasts (not in the movie) (I think), but he's also very young to win here. If he won, he'd become the youngest person to ever win this category. (And fun fact: the current holder of that title is Adrien Brody, who won his first Oscar 22 years ago for The Pianist). It's a toss-up: veteran actor with an emotional performance in a struggling best picture nominee vs. a historically young opponent playing a real person in a late-breaking best picture nominee. Flip a coin and pray this doesn't all go to Timmy's head.
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Could Win: Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Should Win: Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Should Have Been Here: Sebastian Stan-A Different Man
Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro-A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande-Wicked
Felicity Jones-The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini-Conclave
Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez
After all the intrigue of the lead categories, the supporting categories are going to give us a much-needed break. Despite Emilia Perez's constant controversies, this category is one that it has consistently won, and it's tough to think of a narrative compelling enough to dethrone Saldaña's 'I have been covered in paint and pixels for fifteen years and am ready for someone to actually goddamn see me' storyline. People loved Grande's Glinda and were impressed that she could actually act, but her win potential gets undermined by the fact that Wicked 2 will come out this year--but watch for her next year. It'd be neat to see Rossellini's respect in the industry and veteran status come through for a win here, but it's more or less inconceivable to imagine that happening for a performance that is largely wordless and only seven minutes long--especially when her biggest competition is in almost every scene of a 150-minute movie.
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez
Could Win: Ariana Grande-Wicked
Should Win: Ariana Grande-Wicked
Should Have Been Here: Anna Baryshnikov-Love Lies Bleeding
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov-Anora
Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce-The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong-The Apprentice
Here's one of the easiest categories this year: Culkin's every major prize this year and is still riding high on Succession love, as well as providing an easy place for Real Pain fans to congregate after the movie stumbled at the nominations. No one else in this category has the acclaim, the narrative, or the momentum--he's in for sure.
Will Win: Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Could Win: Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Here: Clarence Maclin-Sing Sing
Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Substance
September 5
Am I making this more complicated than it needs to be? Like, Anora's has the most best picture steam in this category, it's got a memorable premise, and feels 'writerly' in its improvised-ish feel. So why am I questioning my pick here? If The Brutalist isn't as dead in the water as people think, it could show here. The Real Pain fans that I just mentioned could easily congregate here to reward Jesse Eisenberg for writing, directing, producing, and acting in the movie, and it's got the snappy dialogue and freestanding monologues that the Academy loves to reward here. Even The Substance, with a premise that no one is going to actively forget, could triumph here--hell, it won the screenplay award at Cannes and is clearly getting votes in other categories, so why not here? In short, this category is probably easy, but I am wringing my hands over it like someone who just got their hands stuck in a wringer.
Will Win: Anora
Could Win: A Real Pain
Should Win: A Real Pain
Should Have Been Here: Challengers
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Much less hand-wringing here (which is good, because the owner of the previous wringer is very upset with me and all the fingers I left behind). Conclave's the only one of this group that's got any best picture stream and isn't also a widely derided musical (only one musical has ever won a screenplay Oscar, which suggests that being widely derided is enough to count a certain cartel leader/beneficent saint out of the running).
Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: Nickel Boys
Should Win: Nickel Boys
Should Have Been Here: Laapataa Ladies
Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Oh look, it's another category that I'm over-complicating! Wicked is the obvious frontrunner, but I can't help but pay attention to all the juicy narratives floating around it. The first Dune won six Oscars--is it ridiculous to assume its fans will show up to these Oscars again, at least in some capacity? Nosferatu surely has to be considered a stealth contender in every category it's in: people love it, they love the look of it, and are surely feral at the thought of rewarding all those monochrome settings. And The Brutalist is a big prestige pic (arguably prestige-r than Wicked) whose plot relies on--and calls attention to--the film's design. Surely one of those is capable of muscling past Wicked's big, pretty sets, especially since Wicked's Oscar hopes have collapsed in almost every other category.
Will Win: The Brutalist
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: The Brutalist
Should Have Been Here: Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In
Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
At last, a chance for me to catch my breath. It's groovy to have a year in which so many categories are up in the air (or at least vaguely competitive, which is more than we can say for most years), but it's way more effort to wrack my brain over the possible scenarios than it is to point at something and shriek a little. So here I am, pointing and shrieking at Wicked in the one category that it can't possibly lose.
Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: Nosferatu
Should Win: Nosferatu
Should Have Been Here: Laapataa Ladies
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Oh look, another category primed to be shrieked at! It's possible that a legion of Wicked fans frog-marches into categories like these and nabs the statues from other, more plausible victors, but I'm just going to assume that the Academy, like me, is super enthused by all the worm stuff and will just check Dune's name and move on.
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Have Been Here: I Saw the TV Glow
Makeup
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Very similar to the previous category, in that the theoretical Wicked legions are the biggest obstacle to the presumptive frontrunner's success. In this case, that's The Substance, which has a slightly more uphill battle than Dune's in the previous category: this award has very rarely gone to horror, body horror, gore, etc., which might be enough for Wicked's more family-friendly fare (or Nosferatu's rotten prosthetic penis, I guess?) to triumph. Still, I have to imagine that if it's gotten this far, The Substance is winning--who isn't talking about that movie's makeup as they walk out the door and directly to their therapist's office?
Will Win: The Substance
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: The Substance
Should Have Been Here: Alien: Romulus
Film Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
Kind of a bizarre category this year in that none of the potential arguments really rely on the movies themselves. Film Editing's always been pretty tied to the best picture category, but has gotten egregiously so in the past ten years; I don't know that anyone would argue that the above movies are the actual best representations of quality editing this year, but they certainly were the top five best picture hopefuls around when the nominations came out. So it feels like you can just order this category as you did best picture, and you'll have the same amount of success in both categories. That said, Conclave arguably has the most artistry (or attempt at that) of the nominees, so it might win just by virtue of being structured like a thriller. In short: whichever movie wins this Oscar will probably win best picture, unless it's Conclave, in which case nothing means anything and we should all go home.
Will Win: Anora
Could Win: Conclave
Should Win: Conclave
Should Have Been Here: Challengers
Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Maria
Nosferatu
Another refreshingly competitive category--isn't this fun, after two years of juggernaut best picture winners and mini-juggernauts next to them? The Brutalist feels like the default frontrunner for all the same reasons that it's competitive in best picture: it's big, it's bold, it's flashy, it flips the statue of liberty on its head and then makes you consider Adrien Brody's pubes, etc. Still, it's not set in concrete: I still believe that Dune's previous fans might show up somewhere, and this seems as likely as anywhere else, especially with popular DP Greig Frasier at the wheel. Nosferatu has also been widely embraced, it's won a number of cinematography prizes, and offers a painterly alternative to The Brutalist's more lived in landscapes. Heck, even Maria picked up a major prize. And maybe we've got an impending Emilia Perez sweep, followed shortly thereafter by the sun being blotted out by 10,000 flying scorpions! Anything is possible!
Will Win: Nosferatu
Could Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Nosferatu
Should Have Been Here: All We Imagine as Light
Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Oh look, it's my favorite category--ones with obvious frontrunners that I have nevertheless convinced myself are impossible to predict! Why do I do this to myself! The Brutalist is the obvious answer--the score is bold, memorable, and love for this movie will have to manifest somewhere. However. Despite how much we all hate Emilia Perez, it is the most nominated movie, one that has won tons of other prizes, and is a wholly original musical...that is nominated in a music category. Surely that has to be an option. And on that front, what stops Wicked from piggybacking on the same argument? Are we really assuming that the average voter can tell the composition that were written for the stage show from the ones that were written for the movie--doesn't its presence in this category suggest that they can't? And if so, why wouldn't it win the 'sure, it's a musical, give it to that, it's got music right there in the title' award? And Conclave and The Wild Robot have both received plenty of love for their music and for plenty of other things besides. So call The Brutalist the frontrunner if you want (...if only because it clearly is), but I feel like this category's ripe for anarchy.
Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Conclave
Should Have Been Here: Challengers
Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Dune is definitely bolstered by the fact that its three main competitors are so similar: three best picture hopefuls that are musicals or music-related. As such, it's easy to assume that those three movies split the votes and allow Dune to sail through.
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Win: A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Have Been Here: The Substance
Original Song
"The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
"Like a Bird"-Sing Sing
"Mi Camino"-Emilia Perez
"El Mal"-Emilia Perez
"Never Too Late"-Elton John: Never Too Late
As we gaze into this, surely one of the deepest and darkest abysses to ever open up beneath this category's feet, we have to ask ourselves one question: what can I, a citizen, do to stop Emilia Perez's inevitable march to a win here? Unfortunately, not too much. Look, I want to see an Oscar in the hands of Diane Warren, She Who Blacks Out the Sky With Her Hands And Plucks The Stars From The Night In Order To Write Little Ballads About Them, Consort of Moloch and Mother Of Tiny Golden Dragons, as much as the next person, but I just don't know if she's getting there for a forgettable song in a movie no one saw. And it's true that Elton John has only ever lost an Oscar to himself, but that stat sounds more impressive if you don't know he's only been nominated in two separate years. Still, we can dream.
Will Win: "El Mal"-Emilia Perez
Could Win: "The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
Should Win: "The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
Should Have Been Here: "Starburned and Unkissed"-I Saw the TV Glow
Animated Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Finally, a rest for my poor reeling mind: The Wild Robot wins this in a nonchalant mosey into the woods.
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Could Win: Flow
Should Win: Flow
Should Have Been Here: The Missing
International Film
Emilia Perez-France
Flow-Latvia
The Girl with the Needle-Denmark
I'm Still Here-Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig-Germany
Your pick in this category depends on how much you believe in Emilia Perez's fall from grace. Are Academy voters sick of the controversy? Did the backlash finally take hold? If so, go for I'm Still Here. Do we believe in the Perez backlash primarily because we hate it and not because it's been reflected by the voters or by the industry? Go for Emilia Perez. Either way, no movie that's ever been nominated for both best picture and this category has ever lost in this category, so it's got to be one of the two.
Will Win: Emilia Perez
Could Win: I'm Still Here
Should Win: Flow
Should Have Been Here: Kneecap
Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane
The main--unpleasant--question to ask here is to what extent the Academy supports the genocide in Palestine. The reaction to Johnathan Glazer's acceptance speech last year, wherein he decried Israel's actions, certainly suggest that there are plenty of people in the Academy who aren't looking to reward a Palestinian documentary about Israeli incursions onto Palestinian land. That doc (No Other Land) is certainly the frontrunner, but we have to at least consider realities in which the Academy looks elsewhere for political reasons. If so, Porcelain War is the easy answer--a doc about the Ukrainian war won last year, and Ukraine could be a, uh, welcome refuge from controversy. I could see Black Box Diaries also benefitting from people looking for a place to land: it's emotionally resonant and sticks out from the others (it's the only one of the nominees not at least tangentially about genocide). I think No Other Land will carry the day--no other doc is as buzzy and relevant this year--but who knows? Stranger things have happened than a powerful institution deciding it wasn't interested in what was happening.
Will Win: No Other Land
Could Win: Porcelain War
Should Win: No Other Land
Should Have Been Here: Dahomey
And that's that! Currently, I don't have any movie being particularly dominant, with Anora and The Brutalist each taking three wins. I have to admit that I'm not feeling confident about a number of my calls this year--am I being riskier, are things tougher to predict, or am I just an idiot? (It's probably all three, so like don't base your Oscar pools on what I'm picking, because I am gonna get buried this year.)
Well, whatever happens, and we all get to enjoy watching it happen in slow motion. But we can embrace whatever happens as well as embracing the joy that comes with not knowing--just imagine all of us coming back here in three days to try and re-live the halcyon days in which we didn't know Emilia Perez would go on an unprecedented winning streak.
Thank you, Joseph. I only saw, “A Complete Unknown” and “A Real Pain” this year but loved both of them.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, above, is from Uncle Eric. I found the portrayal of Joan Baez compelling even if not Oscar worthy.
ReplyDelete