Oscar Nominations: You know what that was? ...A start.

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 Have you ever been stuck in a solid gold washing machine? And it's kind of nice, cuz like hey, solid gold, but at the same time you're still stuck in a washing machine. This, improbably, is how I feel about the nominations today. Some wonderful things, some things make me furious, and no way to separate the two as we all marinate together in our own golden-plated tragedy. But honestly, things could have been much worse: no egregiously terrible movies in best picture (just a few mediocre ones)! No Jared Leto! And realistically, they couldn't have been much better, so we'll take what we can get. This year is an interesting contrast from last year, as well. Last year we had four movies with at least 10 nominations (the all-time record for that many movies hitting double digits in one year), showing how little the Academy shopped around. This year, however, we have one movie with 10 nominations and then a world-ending seven-way tie for second place, each with 6 nominations. I haven't done the research, but I have to assume this is the biggest ever tie for second most nominated film, and six nominations is an awfully low number to hold that place. (2005 is the only of the past 20-25 years I can think of that matches that (where Brokeback Mountain held the pole position with 8, and Good Night and Good Luck and Crash tied for second with six. But even low-nomination years like 2006 and 2007 had movies in first/second place with 8 and 7 nominations.) Anyway, the statistics point to an extremely diffuse year. No one could decide on what they loved, so they went ahead and loved almost everything. 

So what happened? Let's take a look. I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted correctly, but, uh, there will not be a huge number of asterisks this year. (My silliness got in the way of my prudence, as per usual.)

Best Picture
The Father*
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank*
Minari*
Nomadland*
Promising Young Woman*
Sound of Metal*
The Trial of the Chicago 7*

Absolutely thrilled for Sound of Metal, which had about as big a morning as it possibly could have, and I think that this lineup is generally strong--I don't love Trial or Mank, but you can't have everything.  Nomadland/Metal//Minari/Promising Young Woman are all great choices, and Judas is strong as well. I predicted yesterday that the Judas and the Black Messiah momentum was being exaggerated, and goodness was I wrong. A solid lineup, though it's lowkey shocking to see One Night in Miami miss.

Early winner prediction: Nomadland

Director
Lee Isaac Chung-Minari*
Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman*
David Fincher-Mank*
Thomas Vinterberg-Another Round
Chloe Zhao-Nomadland*

Vinterberg is obviously the huge surprise here--I'd read a few people catching some Cold War/Pawlikowski vibes, but I didn't buy it. And I know people are celebrating this choice, but if I'm being honest, I kind of hate Another Round, so I'll stick myself and glower at everyone. Worth pointing out that this is the first ever year with two women in this category (and they now bring the final tally of women nominees here up to 7, meaning this year contains about 30% of all women every nominated for best director). Still, again, a solid lineup, though this Vinterberg nomination, coupled with last year's crime against decency/Todd Phillips for Joker nom, it's safe to say that the best way to score an unlikely best director nod is to get a middle-aged white man to dance around in public for your movie.

Early winner prediction: Chloe Zhao-Nomadland

Actress
Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Andray Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday*
Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman*
Frances McDormand-Nomadland*
Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman*

This category zigged where we expected it to zig, and zagged where we expected it to do what we expected it to do, so here we are. Still, though the nominations were written on the wall some months ago, I don't want to undersell how volatile this category could be still. Almost any of these women could win (except Kirby)--it'll be neat to see how the narratives play out in the next month.

Early winner prediction: Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman

Actor
Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal*
Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Anthony Hopkins-The Father*
Gary Oldman-Mank
Steven Yeun-Minari

What an all-time bummer that we've got another lackadaisical Oldman campaign gently floating him into this category, like a baby's diaper drifting down the Mississippi. Otherwise, this is a stellar lineup. Extremely thrilled for Ahmed and Yeun, who are both fantastic and due, and for Boseman to get his  recognition. Yeun becomes the first Asian-American ever nominated in this category.

Early winner prediction: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm*
Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy*
Olivia Colman-The Father*
Amanda Seyfried-Mank*
Youn Yuh-jung-Minari*

Another category that played out as expected, but from here on out it's fireworks, nothing but fireworks. Anyone could win--and whereas in best actress, while that's technically true, someone's out ahead, every one of these women has about as good a shot as the others (...well, maybe not dear, blesséd Amanda Seyfried, for whom I am elated but Is probably running from 5th place). I've mentioned this before, but the only thing funnier than Glenn Close's storied and prestigious career culminating with a win for Hillbilly-ass Elegy is Olivia Colman beating to an Oscar twice in three years.

Early winner prediction: Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy

Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7*
Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah*
Leslie Odom Jr.-One Night in Miami*
Paul Raci-Sound of Metal*
Lakeith Stanfield-Judas and the Black Messiah*

I don't think anyone saw that Lakeith Stanfield nomination coming at all. It shows how strong Judas and the Black Messiah's energy is right now--we'll see how far that will carry it over the next month. Also maybe a very shady move on the Academy's part? One way to sidestep the 'Daniel Kaluuya is a leading role!' outcry online is to put literally everyone in the movie into supporting. Why not, I guess? Also, nothing made me punch the air in joy this morning more than hearing Raci's name called out. So, so deserving, and it wasn't at all guaranteed. Interesting note: if Chadwick Boseman had been nominated here for Da 5 Bloods (something I had predicted), he would have become the only actor other than James Dean to receive two posthumous nominations. As he didn't, James Dean keeps his record, which has stood for 65 years.
It's worth taking a moment to note the diversity in this year's nominations. There are 6 black actors nominated, which is a record, as well as three other people of color, showing that, for one year at least, the Academy found a way its general anti-Asian bias in the acting categories. While this is all great, I'm not sure we should pat the Academy's back too hard, in that they tend vote for what's in front of them. 2020's prestige movie narrative was dominated by films by and about people of color, as well as films directed by women, and that's reflected (to some extent) in these nominations. But it's all too easy to forget last year, in which those same kinds of films were just as available, but largely ignored in favor of safer choices. Or we can think back to 2018, when Green Book won best picture. Point being, we can applaud the Academy for trying to change how they view and shape the film community while still being clear-eyed about the fact that these nominations might have gone very differently if the Academy had had more options.

Early winner prediction: Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah

Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari*
Promising Young Woman*
Sound of Metal*
The Trial of the Chicago 7*

The runaway narrative of this morning/the past couple weeks of Oscar campaign has got to be the sleeper success of Sound of Metal and Judas and the Black Messiah, which both ended up punching for over what their weight class seemed to be. And what a good-looking category it is! Shame the (arguably) least interesting entry will take it all.

Early winner prediction: The Trial of the Chicago 7

Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm*
The Father*
Nomadland*
One Night in Miami*
The White Tiger

Mostly as expected. I should have seen The White Tiger coming in this category, but went with my heart/First Cow (which went home empty-handed this morning--what movies are these voters watching?). While my very silly 'Borat for best picture' narrative didn't pan out (which is really for the best), it did hit here, showing that it did have some real strength coming in.

Early winner prediction: Nomadland

Production Design
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Mank*
News of the World*
Tenet

It wouldn't be an Oscar year without a Chris Nolan movie showing up more times than you want it! No, that's unfair--Tenet did underperform, and I'd have been happy to see it show up in other categories. I just like celebrating Christopher Nolan's failures, and am still mad about the fact that he encouraged us all to go die/spread the plague in theaters last summer just so we could see this very stupid movie.

Early winner prediction: Mank

Costume Design
Emma*
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Mank*
Mulan*
Pinocchio

Mulan keeps the Disney live-action remake tradition of getting a nomination for costumes so Disney can keep calling them Oscar-Nominated Classics (TM). Intrigued and vaguely unsettled by Pinocchio. I haven't seen the movie, and I'm sure it's very deserving, but hot damn, how many people watched this puppet movie without telling me.

Early winner prediction: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Visual Effects
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky*
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan*
Tenet*

Feels atrocious on so many levels that Welcome to Chechnya's work was left out in favor of Mulan's, I dunno, flappy digital chicken. I did smile seeing Love and Monsters here, though. The effects are a little jenky, but they're a treat, and the film itself is lovely. Glad it got something that might widen its fanbase a little, or at least give it a reason not to fade into dust forever.

Early winner prediction: Tenet

Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy*
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom*
Mank
Pinocchio*

Again with the uncanny puppet, though I've heard that the makeup really is staggering, so no complaints here. It's just fun to kick a puppet while it's (not) down. Tickled that Hillbilly Elegy's legitimately ridiculous work is cited here, which means that it'll probably win.

Early winner prediction: Hillbilly Elegy

Film Editing
The Father
Nomadland*
Promising Young Woman*
Sound of Metal*
The Trial of the Chicago 7*

The Father pops up again--another late-breaking success story that didn't have to go as hard as it did. Would love the opportunity to see it (without driving to an AMC 30 miles away or whatever and then stewing in that sweet maskless Southern air), but we'll have to wait for now. Fun fact--no movie, at least since the Academy firmed up their categories at the end of the 30s/beginning of the 40s, has ever won best picture without being nominated for at least three of the following categories: directing, writing, any acting, and film editing. Being nominated for all four is best, but not mandatory, but if you can't get at least three, you can't win (or would have to take an unprecedent win). This year, only Nomadland and Promising Young Woman are up in all four, making them your statistical frontrunners. Sound of Metal, The Father, and Trial of the Chicago 7 each are only missing director, while Minari is only missing film editing. ...Then again, statistics aren't going to play too much of a role this year, as Nomadland probably already has the big win all sewn up.

Early winner prediction: Sound of Metal

Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World*
Nomadland*
Mank*
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Absolutely liiiiviiid that Trial of the Chicago 7 scored here, but what can you do? But seriously, show me someone who watches that movie and First Cow, Minari, Tenet, or any of the dozens of less plausible candidates and then decides that Trial is the prettier movie, and I'll show you someone who needs to have spiders put in their lunchbox.

Early winner prediction: Nomadland

Original Score
Da 5 Bloods
Mank*
Minari*
News of the World*
Soul*

Somewhat surprising to see Da 5 Bloods show up here, as it's the only nomination it managed this morning, and was hardly the likeliest place for it to score. Worth pointing out that Da 5 Bloods getting in meant leaving The Midnight Sky out in the old, and thank goodness for that! It's got to be one of the worst studio scores to come along in some time--shocking, in that light, that they managed to not nominate it. Kind of a shame that now they can't have Nick Jonas to play some wacky xylophone cues on stage in tribute to this movie though.

Early winner prediction: Soul

Sound
Greyhound
Mank*
News of the World*
Soul
Sound of Metal*

Should have seen Soul coming from a mile away. It's got music! Animation! Action sequences! So many things that this branch loves. Also, I guess this means I have to try and watch Greyhound now.

Early winner prediction: Sound of Metal

Original Song
"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah*
"Hear My Voice"-The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga*
"Io si"-The Life Behind*
"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami*

A somewhat dire referendum on this category that three out of five nominees are vaguely worded inspirational ballads that play over the credits. Nothing against those songs, per se, just that, despite the fixes they've tried with this category in the past few years, it's still one that only begrudgingly looks at songwriting as an art that contributes to filmmaking, and even then, only under duress. Still, I'm thrilled for "Husavik," and cannot wait to see Diane Warren manifest from a ball of screaming white light over zoom. (Honestly, I love Diane Warren, I love "Io si," and I just want to get her that Oscar. Remember when she almost won with Lady Gaga for "Til It Happens to You" and then lost to Sam Smith? Why have we not burned the world down yet)

Early winner prediction: "Speak Now"-One Night in Miami

Animated Film
Onward*
Over the Moon*
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul*
Wolfwalkers*

As suspected, they ended up avoiding the smaller international releases this year, though Wolfwalkers and Farmageddon get to retain their overseas cred. Soul's gonna take this in a walk, but it is a real shame that Wolfwalkers doesn't have more of a chance. Maybe Cartoon Saloon, the Irish studio behind Wolfwalkers that has been churning out astounding, eye-popping work for over a decade with nary an Oscar to show for it, can team up with Diane Warren to destroy LA over zoom.

Early winner prediction: Soul

International Feature
Another Round-Denmark*
Better Days-Hong Kong
Collective-Romania*
The Man Who Sold His Skin-Tunisia
Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina*

Somehow, improbably, shockingly, this is Romania's first nomination, despite it being a hotbed of new and exciting film activity for more than two decades now. Heck, they changed the rules for this category after 2007 when Romania's 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days missed the final cut, and it's still taken this long to get Romania into the top 5. Better late than never, I suppose, but also better when it's supposed to happen than 14 years later.

Early winner prediction: Another Round-Denmark

Documentary Feature
Collective*
Crip Camp*
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher*
Time*

My Octopus Teacher hunch payed off, much to my own dismay. Something of a drab display here. Plenty of good (or even very good) movies, but it still feels like a let-down, with so many important, acclaimed, and/or strange movies left on the wayside. Interesting note: last year, we made a lot of noise about Honeyland being the first movie ever nominated for both international feature and documentary feature, and then Collective goes ahead and pulls the same trick the very next year. 

Early winner prediction: Time

Of the non-animated, international, or documentary nominees, I've seen most of what's nominated, missing only The Father, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, The White Tiger, Pinocchio, The One and Only Ivan, and Greyhound, all of which are pretty accessible (give or take Ivan and Greyhound, but that's what free trials are for). As for the tougher to cover categories, I'm still missing the majority: Over the Moon, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Better Days, The Man Who Sold His Skin, Quo Vadis, Aida?, The Mole Agent, and My Octopus Teacher. These are mostly accessible, though The Man Who Sold His Skin and Quo Vadis, Aidia? might prove troublesome. 

Predictions-wise, I didn't do as poorly as I originally though. I only got actress, supporting actress, and supporting actor totally right, but also didn't totally fail anywhere (I got at least 3 or 4 correct in every category). 

For those counting at home, here' a list of the most nominated movies:

1. Mank-10 (despite it clearly underperforming)

And then a six-way tie for second place, organized by a vague order of what categories are most important in my head:

2. Minari-6
3. Nomadland-6
4. The Father-6
5. Sound of Metal-6
6. Judas and the Black Messiah-6
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7-6
8. Promising Young Woman-5
9. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-5
10. News of the World-4

And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Dick Johnson is Dead, The Mauritanian, Bacurau, The Invisible Man, Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar, Relic, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Forty-Year-Old Version, La Llorona, The Assistant, Miss Juneteenth, Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets, Welcome to Chechnya, Palm Springs.

You win some, you lose some. 

And there's another year sorted! How did you react? Which nominations are great? Which are awful? What's missing?
I will say that every year, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I still love and have fun with the Oscars. Every year, no matter what, I have trouble sleeping through the night before Oscar nominations, like a kid before Christmas. (This year, I managed to sleep until 5.00 before saying 'that'll do' and starting my day.) It's silly and it's trash, but it's my silly trash, and I adore it.

Oscar Predictions 2020: And the Waters (kind of) Receded

 

(source)

Look at us indeed. One year ago, back when the end of the world seemed fresh and scary, rather than something you have to do on the way to your outdoor spin class, the future of the Oscars seemed dire, and only got direr (more dire?) (real dumb and bad) as the year continued. How do we have Oscars in a year when movies disappear? Is there a point to framing cinematic excellence (a terrible word as is) for cinematic releases when everyone watched all of them on Netflix, one eye on their phone? How can we possibly have an awards ceremony where everyone gathers in one place?

Well, that was last March. We were young and unversed in the art of half-assing your way through a global crisis. The answers to the question above proved, if not easy, then at least doable. Movies went online! Everything was fine (except for everything that wasn't, which was most everything)! Awards ceremonies on zoom work fine! In fact, in a few ways they're better--seeing someone on a stage is great, but seeing them accept an award surrounded by their family, all crying happy tears, and then they have to pick up their cat, is something else. Point is, the Oscars are going to do what they always do: celebrate filmmaking by finding a whole host of milquetoast movies to applaud. (Who's ready to see another Oscar nomination for Jared Leto? Drench me, Lucifer!)

Despite the circumstances, the nominations we're looking at for tomorrow will probably no stranger or more upsetting than usual. The last Oscar ceremony was on February 9th, 2020, and the coming season will end at the Dolby Theater/in Chloe Zhao's living room on April 25th, which means that we find ourselves in the second longest Oscar season of all time. (Before 1933, Oscar years went from summer to summer, so the first ceremony celebrated 1928-29, the next 1929-30, etc. This was changed for the 1933 Oscars, which saw a gargantuan 17-month Oscar year from August of 1932 to March of 1933.) (I suppose both this year and the 32/33 season are dwarfed by the first Oscar season, which stretched from the invention of fire to 1927, and resulted in a shocking zero nominations for anyone.) Given the extra-long year, you'd be forgiven for thinking that pure chaos was about to descend on the Oscars, and we'd all love to believe it, but it looks as though the extra time has just given the nominations a little more time to solidify. Don't get me wrong, we're still primed for a little weirdness, and I desperately hope that some Academy members decided to cry havok and change their zoom backgrounds to the dogs of war, but we'll see. At the very least, it looks like we'll get mostly mediocre to good films up for the major awards, which is a privilege for which we should all be thankful (I will never, never get over 2018's Green Book/Bohemian Rhapsody/Vice perfect storm of horrors.) I think this is the first year in...3 years, maybe? that I'm not predicting one of my 5 least favorite movies of the year to be nominated for best picture. Truly, nature is healing. So let's see what ugly scars remain on Oscar's shiny little body after we pull the bandages off.

As is now tradition, I'm going to dump all of my predictions at once in a great unholy pile. Bear in mind that I try to predict for fun as much as for accuracy--there are places on the internet to go if you want mathematical precision, but all I've got to offer you is burning dumpsters and a can-do attitude. It's always more funny to be silly, and there's nothing I want more from my life than silliness.

(note: all predictions are ranked in order of likelihood--so the first movie is the most likely, and so on from there.)

Best Picture
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
One Night in Miami
The Father
Sound of Metal
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Alternate: Judas and the Black Messiah

Well, I promised you silliness, so I've gone ahead and started with a whole heaping dollop of it. The first six film (Nomandland through One Night...) are presumably locks, though I've heard some whispers of Mank's flagging buzz causing it to miss out here. The Father is a risk, but I've heard enough people impressed about it that I'll include it, even if no one has seen it, and Sound of Metal has been building enough steam that I feel good about its chances (even if it's just because I want it to happen). Which leads us to a whole bevy of films to either fill the last slot or overtake one of the weaker films I'm predicting. Judas and The Black Messiah has a ton of momentum right now, and is probably the smart choice (even over Sound of Metal), but I've got a hunch. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, which once looked like a thoroughbred, now seems to be grasping at whatever it can. It could still appear here, but don't count on it. Critical favorites like Da 5 Bloods and First Cow could theoretically still surprise, as could The Mauritanian, which is another late-breaking movie with momentum. But my silly pick is for Borat to break through. It's got lots of heat in other categories, and it's been a part of the conversation for months, which means that Academy members have been side-eying their Borat screeners for months. Plus, it's fits the moment politically, and its Rudy Guliani moment made a whole lot of noise. Most people are predicting that Judas will be the 'political' nominee (a somewhat belittling slot for a strong movie, but hey), but I can't help but feel like the Academy's 'political' moment will manifest itself as replacing a furious BLM/racial inequity and injustice movie with a 'boy, Republicans suck' movie (I think there's more to Borat than that, but whatever).  We'll see! Come lavish me, chaos hounds!

Director
Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin-The Trial of the Chicago 7
Lee Isaac Chung-Minari
David Fincher-Mank
Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman
Alternate: Regina King-One Night in Miami

Lots of potential for movement. I'm only really confident about Zhao, although is also probably locked in. Beyond that, everyone has arguments against them. Mank has run out of steam, the Academy can be strange and standoffish with cinema from Asia/Asians in general, which might hurt Minari, even though it seems like an across the board threat. Fennell is probably safer than I have her now, given the popularity of her movie, and how fiercely, visibly directed it is. King is a safe choice, and could edge someone out by virtue of that alone, and Spike Lee could always surprise, if they feel like making up for past snubs. Look for Florian Zeller/The Father, Darius Marder/Sound of Metal, and/or Shaka King/Judas and the Black Messiah if any of their films have a bigger morning than I'm expecting.

Actress
Frances McDormand-Nomadland
Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman
Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman
Alternate: Yeri Han-Minari

This category feels more locked than any other to me. People have been talking about how Vanessa Kirby's doesn't have enough voters behind it, but I don't buy it, and even if I did, I don't think any of her competitors can yield enough passion to give her the boot. Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead? Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy? None of these movies have had great seasons, so I'll pick a surprise Han nod as a spoiler.

Actor
Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins-The Father
Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun-Minari
Ben Affleck-The Way Back
Alternate: Gary Oldman-Mank

The first four are probably safe (though say a prayer for Steven Yeun, despite his film's strength--there have been fewer than 15 Asian actors ever nominated in any acting category, and Yeun would be the first Asian-American ever nominated in this category). The last spot is a total free-for-all, so I've decided to swing for the fences and predict that Ben Affleck's attempts at a career renaissance pay off. Oldman's a much likelier pick, but I feel like the Mank fatigue, and the performance itself, will keep it out of the top 5. Look for Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods, Tahar Rahim/The Mauritanian, or even Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round as surprises.

Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman-The Father
Youn Yuh-jung-Minari
Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
Alternate: Dominique Fishback-Judas and the Black Messiah

An absolutely bonkers category, in that none of the women here are locked, and any combination of seven woman wouldn't surprise me (throw in Jodie Foster/The Mauritanian to complete the set). It feels foolish not to predict Fishback, but I'm betting that the 'get Close an Oscar' furor is enough to carry her over the top for a ...dubious film and performance. And we haven't even discussed who's going to win (the answer, again, is literally any of these seven women)! What a wild year for this category.

Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr.-One Night in Miami
Chadwick Boseman-Da 5 Bloods
Paul Raci-Sound of Metal
Alternate: David Strathairn-Nomadland

Another category I feel pretty confident about, though Boseman might be vulnerable (how far does the posthumous honoring go), as does Raci (not particularly famous, in a small-ish role in a film that may or may not have a big morning). Still, I'm not convinced by the strength of any of their competitors, though Strathairn and the pint-sized Alan Kim from Minari have the best chance. I'm trying not to speak anything good into the world for Jared Leto, so instead of discussing his Oscar chances here, I'll just imagine him getting chased by lions.

Original Screenplay
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Sound of Metal
Alternate: Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Almost decided to go for Never Rarely as a surprise nominee, but ultimately decided that I couldn't have Sound of Metal as a best picture nominee and still predict that it doesn't get in here. Mank is still weak, but it feels 'writerly' enough to get a pass. Look for Judas and the Black Messiah to appear here if it's going to make a play for best picture, and look for Palm Springs as a huge surprise that doesn't look that surprising in retrospect.

Adapted Screenplay
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Father
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
First Cow
Alternate: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Very irresponsible for me to have First Cow over Ma Rainey or The White Tiger, but what am I if not irresponsible? Borat is hardly guaranteed, but again, I couldn't predict it for best picture and then not predict it here. 

Production Design
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mulan
Alternate: The Father

Not feeling at all confident about this category, but it feels like it's primed for a bunch of surprises that I don't see right now. Look to Tenet or The Midnight Sky for genre nods, or Emma or The Personal History of David Copperfield if they're feeling period. Beyond that...? We'll see--it really does feel like there's an obvious surprise hovering just out of reach.

Costume Design
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Emma
Mulan
Mank
The Glorias
Alternate: The Personal History of David Copperfield

Also not too confident about this one, but you never know. The Glorias is a somewhat left-field pick, but literally every movie Julie Taymor has ever made has been nominated in this category, so why stop now? Ammonite or Promising Young Woman would be lovely choices to upset, and News of the World or Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey could sneak up on us.

Visual Effects
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Mank
The One and Only Ivan
Welcome to Chechnya
Alternate: Mulan

Swapped out Mulan as a last-second whim, but it feels right. Chechnya's a risk, and would be the first documentary ever nominated in this category, but we can dream, can't we? Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Birds of Prey, Love and Monsters, Soul, and Bloodshot.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Hillbilly Elegy
Pinnochio
Birds of Prey
Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Alternate: Mank

Another chaotic category, so more darts thrown at the poor beleaguered wall. Pinnochio may be a little-seen Italian movie, but its prosthetic work is apparently phenomenal, so I feel like it's safe here (or as safe as any Italian movie about prosthetic puppet faces can be, for anyone). Mank and Emma feel like smarter guesses to me, but Jingle Jangle keeps showing up at industry awards, on longlists, etc.--people are clearly watching it, and I think it can capitalize on that at least somewhere. Also banking on this category/Birds of Prey to give the Academy its semiannual chance to be like 'we nominated a batman, we're not a regular Academy, we're a cool Academy.' Note: this category has also been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are The Little Things, The Glorias, and One Night in Miami.

Film Editing
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Minari
Mank
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
Alternate: Mank

Nothing revelatory here--this category is the notoriously bound to best picture, so I've taken the frontrunners and added a movie that's got some snazzier editing. Mank would be an obvious pick for an upset here, and they could go for Tenet/The Father if they're feeling wacky, or Judas and the Black Messiah if it's got more juice than I'm predicting it to have. 

Cinematography
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
First Cow
Alternate: Judas and the Black Messiah

Three locks and a free for all for the final two spots, so I opted for chaos again. Desperately hoping that Trial of the Chicago 7 doesn't show up here, despite its many threats to that effect. Also hoping for a wacky surprise (like Cherry at the American Society of Cinematographers awards, but better). First Cow would already be that, kind of, but let's dream even bigger! I'm No Longer Here! Possessor! The world is this category's oyster!

Original Score
Soul
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Mank
Minari
Alternate: Tenet

After a few bouts of chaos, I've opted to play it safe here, though I suppose I could get safer yet (taking out Minari for Trial of the Chicago 7, as apparently every bland aspect of that movie is going to get its day in the sun). One movie to keep an eye on is Blizzard of Souls, a Latvian movie that made this category's longlist, and has gotten attention elsewhere. 

Sound
Sound of Metal
Mank
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Alternate: Tenet

Assuming that the Academy's flattening of its sound awards (they condensed sound mixing and sound editing into one award this year) is going to result in the flattest possible category, in which best picture hopefuls get in by virtue of being best picture hopefuls (much like what had been happening with sound mixing previously). This is nothing against any of the predicted nominees, all of which have interesting sound designs in their own right, but.

Original Song
"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami
"Io si"-The Live Ahead
"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah
"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
"Make it Work"-Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey
Alternate: "Turntables"-All In: The Fight for Democracy

Choosing to dream here, with both past-pastiche musical yawp "Husavik" and Diane Warren's latest attempt to throw her ailing carapace at Oscar, "Io si." If you're expecting a nominee with less in the way of carapace/joie de vivre, then look for The Trial of the Chicago 7's "Hear My Voice" (again, how many categories are going to subject us to lifting up something middling from that film and pretending that it's solved politics forever).

Animated Film
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
Over the Moon
The Croods: New Age
Alternate: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

It would be awfully atypical for this branch to exclude all the international entries (like Ride Your Wave, Bombay Rose, or The Willoughbys) in favor of big American studio offerings and sequels, but none of the smaller titles feel like they've really got the juice this year. Plus, one of the category's locks, Wolfwalkers, is Irish, so maybe it feels worldwide enough for the branch to nominate it and then nominate The Croods and still sleep at night. (...I liked the first Croods movie, I'm sure this one would be a totally respectable nominee.)

International Feature
Another Round-Denmark
Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina
Collective-Romania
Dear Comrades!-Russia
Night of the Kings-Ivory Coast
Alternate: A Sun-Taiwan

Have I skewed too much toward Eastern Europe? Maybe. Have I made a mistake by leaving out both critical darling La Llorona/Guatemala and easy get Two of Us/France? Also maybe. But I have made my bed, and my bed is in the Ivory-ass Coast, so there.

Documentary Feature
Time
Crip Camp
Collective
Boys State
My Octopus Teacher
Alternate: Welcome to Chechnya

Big choice on my part to include My Octopus Teacher over critical successes like Chechnya, Dick Johnson is Dead, or The Truffle Hunters, but I'm trying it. I'm basing my prediction entirely on how popular the movie was over the summer, and that everyone who sees it seems to love it (or at least want to talk about it). That, and the novelty factor (that still isn't too much of a novelty to put people off--sorry, Dick Johnson, I love you anyway).

And there you have it! For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
Mank-10
Minari-7
Nomadland-7
The Trial of the Chicago 7-6
Sound of Metal-6

In the meantime, if I could guarantee any nominations, it'd be either Paul Raci in supporting actor for Sound of Metal or Delroy Lindo in actor for Da 5 Bloods, though I'll also spare a thought for First Cow getting in anywhere. And If I could guarantee any one nomination didn't happen, I'd use my power to send Jared Leto to the watery abyss from whence he came, or, barring that, try and bring Trial of the Chicago 7's final tally down a bit. 

And that's that! In 13 hours, all of this will be meaningless! I'll be back tomorrow morning to unpack the actual nominations--it's like Christmas morning, only I have more fun than at actual Christmas, and everyone else has no fun at all! Then we'll see how wrong I was (so wrong), and how angry we all need to be!

Best of 2020, Part 3: Craft Categories

I know this is no secret, but listen up anyway: I absolutely love part 3 in this series. It's my favorite to write every year! Talking about my favorite movies is great, and talking about my favorite screenplays is a thing that has to happen, contractually, but they all pale in comparison to spending a few hours in a dizzy haze, dreaming about lighting rigs and creature prosthetics and innovative sound effects. And this isn't just something I do today, incidentally. My family can attest to the fact that I've gone on at least three different rants about why the lighting choices alone on my favorite Spanish soap opera qualify it to be considered high art, right next to James Joyce and Fergie. Point is, I love these things year round, and how could you not? None of the movies you love can exist without the craftspeople working to make them a reality. All the moments that make you feel something build whatever power they have on the aesthetic choices that are made and created to support them. So let's go on a goddamn cinematic journey.

In interest of putting a face on some of these things, I've added some visuals to the lists. They should enlarge when you click on them, but I make no promises, as my technical skills are less than garbage.

Note: I didn't include pictures or videos for film editing or the sound categories, because I don't really know how to capture film editing compellingly in a way that doesn't waste either my time or yours, and I don't have the resources to make audio clips for the sound categories (which I would love to do--particularly this year, since the Academy tossed out sound editing, my favorite category, the absolute monsters).

Production Design
5. Love and Monsters-where's it say that apocalypses can't be scary and twee at the same time? Seaside cave havens, rotted townscapes juxtaposing the better homes and bunkers underground, and a bevy of wacky mutant bugs.

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4. First Cow-hard-won domesticity wrung from a stone and shaped into little things like wooden spatulas, drying racks, and rough-spun glass, surrounded by precarious stacked logs to to keep out the chill.

3. Mank-all the glamorous places where the rich go to die. Hearst's labyrinth estate is the obvious stand-out, or maybe the immaculate chaos of Mank's desert retreat, but I love the scenes filmed on movie sets (...in-film movie sets) best.

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2. News of the World-19th century Texas drawn as though from the nightmares of another dimension. The entire world feels empty--even the interiors defined by their open expanses--as the little frontier towns cling to the surface of the earth like they'll fall into the sky at any moment.

1. Promising Young Woman-the most malevolent synergy of production design and framing I've seen all year (or in any recent year). Every space designed like a sick joke, a sentient, carnivorous thing looking to swallow characters whole after telling them exactly who they are. The series of bedrooms near the beginning are particularly telling, each given a second to define each male character/attempted abuser's life in a heartbeat. The overstuffed, desperate chintz of the Mulligan's/her parents' house is also memorable, as is the film's final major setting.

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Honorable mention: brutal futuristic spaces to mutilate people inside in Possessor

Costume Design

5. Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga-somehow functions as a massive and silly parody of a Eurovision contest as well as a plausible collection of Eurovision outfits. Additional points to how much attention is paid to the nonperformance affair: think Ferrell and McAdams' collection of horrifying but comfy jumpers, McAdams' wild shiny plastic (?) dress she wears to the party, or Dan Stevens' plunging necklines.

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4. Birds of Prey-high trash chic, from Harley's plastic, see-through jacket to Chris Messina and Ewan McGregor's vaguely lurid suits that look like they've been tailored with a hunting knife.

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3. Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar-impeccable, life-saving culottes, color palettes that look like they came from a mid-80s catalogue of innovate jello meals (cream of mushroom and sangria jello! mayonnaise and dragonfruit jello! Wear it on your chest forever!), and Hawaiian shirts that look like they know a secret. They're the funniest costumes of the year, but I would also like to own each and every one of them.

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2. Ammonite-dresses like prisons, or prisons like dresses, that flip on their head when touched by a little light. Ronan's character gets the best outfits, tracing the micro-fluctuations of her mood while serving a huge, finely textured look on their own. Special shout-out to Kate Winslet's formal party dress, perfectly shaped to fit a person who gets ready for a party preparing to have a bad time but hoping not to. Really gorgeous work across the board.

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1. Emma.-While, on the surface, I might seem to be caving to my worst impulses, giving the top spot to the heavily costumed period romance like any other awards body, no movie contains looks so lavish, character-defining, and bonkers as this movie. The women drift from room to room like precarious, architectural birds, borne on the updrafts conjured by their own trains and frills. And the men do the exact same thing! Every single outfit in this movie boggled my mind, and there are hundreds of them. (Seriously, investigate the source down there, which has a spectacular collection of just one character's wardrobe.)

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Honorable mention: sExY drag and spider skirts in Promising Young Woman

Visual Effects

5. The Invisible Man-effects defined by exclusion; a minimalist take on drawing the audience's attention to what might be in the room, what shouldn't be, and what is anyway.

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4. Birds of Prey-over the top fluorescent wackiness, friendly pet hyenas, and a Gotham that gets that you don't have to be dead-eyed to be good.

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3. Possessor-difficult to capture this achievement in an image or a sentence, as the focus was on in-camera effects that suggest hallucinations. Back-projected images, strings of fragmented hallucinations (all done in camera!), stomach-churning interactions of bodies and technology.

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2. Tenet-speaking of in-camera! Tenet (allegedly) only has about 300 VFX shots, less than most movies of any genre. I don't love Christopher Nolan movies, and I think Tenet is pretty mediocre, even by his standards, but I can respect the monumental effort that went in to making this movie almost entirely with practical effects.

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1. Welcome to Chechnya-the year's most vital and unsettling effects, in which the faces of gay/queer Chechen victims of the region's state-sanctioned violence are digitally masked to protect their identity. The result is both emotionally resonant (we see these people's eyes and emotions in a way that we couldn't with a simple face-blur or speaking in a dark room) and unsettling (any moment where they don't look 100% like natural human faces only underlines the self-effacement and state-forced erasure these people now experience).

(There's no good gif or image that really shows the impact of the work, but this scene that I posted as one of the best of the year gets the point across.)

Honorable mention: I can't turn down spooky sea beasts, and Underwater delivers just that

Makeup and Hairstyling

5. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom-period makeup, body transformations, and character details that seem both stylized and realistic.

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4. Relic-rotted black mold brush dragged across your back. Very subtle, quiet work until it suddenly becomes anything but. Relic has one of the best endings of the year, and it only lands as hard as it does because of the deeply upsetting makeup work on display.

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3. Emma.-for elaborate styles as far-flung and labored as the clothes. I don't know if 19th century British aristocracy actually spent hours festooning their hair into fancy proto-spaghetti, but I can't imagine anything else.

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2. Birds of Prey-for Harley Quinn's newer, more carefree look (less Stockholm Syndrome, more Ann Taylor on mushrooms), for the Messina's grisly body mods, for Ewan McGregor's all-business coiffe, and for Mary Elizabeth Winstead's 'I stopped watching TV in the early 90s, and I assume nothing has changed since then) biker do. I see you, girl.

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1. Possessor-simply put, for being so gross that I wanted it to stop. Expressive geysers of viscera, melting bodies and faces, and one of the simplest but most unnerving images of the year (below).

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Honorable mention: witch makeup drawn with a straightedge in Mulan

Film Editing

5. The Invisible Man-has the bravery (and gall) to force its audience to just stare for a while. Exceptionally tense and cruel construction and pacing, massive moments coming from nowhere and throwing themselves into our laps.

4. Lingua Franca-like The Invisible Man, an exceptionally patient movie, and one whose editing has similar goals of expressing the unbearable tension of being a person in a room.

3. Sound of Metal-moves forward as though it has to cut time with glass. Smart juxtapositions, momentum that rests like a snake before writhing forward.

2. Time-moments on moments on moments, the idea of linear time crushed into something less meaningless. A massive feat of shaping archival footage into something new.

1. Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets-similarly, this documentary sifts through untold hours of footage to fashion something new. A movie that is born and dies in the editing room--before firing up the editing suite, the filmmakers had dozens (or hundreds) of hours of drunken conversations, and nothing else. An act of creation and recreation.

Honorable mention: I don't love this movie at all, but I figure abut 90% of the reason people are responding to The Trial of the Chicago 7 is how propulsive it manages to feel, so a big shout-out to the editor for building the illusion.

Cinematography

5. Judas and the Black Messiah-lit as if the world were laminated and then held up to a forest fire. Sharp and muted, with a kinetic camera.

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4. Mank-vacillates wildly between mostly period-accurate and looking like film noir had a love-child with 90s indie movies and then pushed that love child out of a plane. I think it's a good thing? 

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3. Nomadland-one of year's most expressive and lush films, conjuring gold fantasias from van interiors, empty fields, and roadside diners. 

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2. First Cow-shoots the Pacific Northwest as a fairytale dystopia, all children peering out of pitch-black interiors into an unwelcoming light. 

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1. Vitalina Varela-one of the most visually striking movies I've ever seen, and one whose merits have yet to be caught in what's available on google images. Maybe the darkest movie I've ever seen--just about every scene takes place in almost complete darkness, forcing the audience to spend the whole movie leaning forward, scanning the frame for just a bit of light. The result is a series of stunning, frustrating images, a descriptor that fits the titular character as well as the film itself.

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Honorable mention: Tenet, dumb but pretty

Original Score

5. Judas and the Black Messiah-a knotted morass of nerves, suspicion and guilt, as written by aggressive percussion and a truly bizarre horn section.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGpuqSfCQCY

4. The Vast of Night-music like a whisper, until it builds like thunder. Delicate and a little outrageous.
(Note that this link has huge spoilers for the end of the movie, but this soundtrack is barely on youtube, and for some reason one of only two tracks also has the movie's ending playing.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2WeM7x4DdE

3. The Invisible Man-sounds as though someone took the sound you make right before you throw up and stretched it far too long. Extremely tense and upsetting work, doing a lot of the heavy lifting to maintain the atmosphere and unease that the film needs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ws6IcI0Sqls

2. Tenet-music for a rave at the end of the world. Tenet is something of a lumbering beast, shambling  from plot point to plot point, but Ludwig Göransson's music is the caretaker pulling it forward. What a fun, squirrelly work this soundtrack is--most of my enjoyment of the movie itself came because I got to just sit there and vibe to the music.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yywzQbZcDL0

1. Soul-somewhat cliché to name this as the best of the year, but sometimes I'm a cliché too, and sometimes clichés work. Soul's musicscape is a singular achievement, using Jon Batiste's jazz compositions when characters are on Earth, and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross's pieces (living somewhere between The Social Network and Ludovico Einaudi) when they're elsewhere. Both halves of the score are worthy of the top in their own right, but the fact that both coexist and interact as well as they do within the same film is another thing entirely.
(two pieces: the first from Jon Baptiste's jazz score: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBWZN7Ju9pU
and the second from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNXY1av-NUE)

Honorable mention: Wild Mountain Thyme's fittingly old-fashioned score

Sound Mixing

5. First Cow-makes the not-silence of the forest both toxic and welcoming, depending on the minute. Extra points for the lived-in sounds of the camps and the tenterhooks nighttime sequences.

4. La Llorona-the loudest quiet movie of the year, or maybe the quietest loud movie. The past and present collide as sonic presences; the world is only quiet when someone is dying.

3. Mank-a canny mix designed to sound like films of the 40s, and succeeds. The way the film keeps a multitude of balls in there during moments of studio hubbub  and captures the posh gone-here-to-die howl of the writing retreat both impress.

2. The Invisible Man-I've already written at length about this movie is one long straight razor scraped against a ragged nerve, and the sound is no exception. As what we see is meaningless, the film turns on a dime-sized fulcrum of what we can hear, throwing the audience from room to room, playing them like a particularly nervous piano.

1. Sound of Metal-there's no question about what goes at the top here--the way Sound of Metal uses sound to evoke space and experience is unparalleled this year. By interweaving audio tracks from a hearing perspective, the main character's muted experience, the sound of the world through aids, etc., Sound of Metal renders the world as a prism of sound, one in which peace is only available in stillness.

Honorable mention: video game chaos and impromptu band shenanigans in We Are Little Zombies

Sound Editing

5. Possessor-for the industrial-strength splat!s of the blood geysers alone, but also for the determined hum of the machines, the cyclone hallucination sounds, and icepick melodies of all those stab wounds.

4. We Are Little Zombies-beeps, boops, zaps, flying jellyfish, 8-bit carnage and catharsis.

3. Love and Monsters-for the curious, stentorian grumbles of the monsters, the otherworldly sonic similarity of the new world to our old one, robots whose movements sound vaguely nostalgic, and the miniature tink! of a spear trying to kill a crab and failing.

2. Birds of Prey-funhouse hammer bops, overblown firework explosions, and gun battles like overexcited popcorn.

1. Sound of Metal-big copy/paste from the sound mixing category: what Sound of Metal does is revelatory, and deserves all the accolades it can get.

Honorable mention: fun and learning with Cthulu in Underwater

Original Song

5. "Brand New Story"-Ride Your Wave-a bubblegum-pink pop ballad that will have you cheering or getting weepy, depending on the moment. Because of how it's used in the plot, I cannot imagine anyone leaving this film not singing 'ki mi KA' as they exit the (...virtual) theater.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFSLmGI7heg

4. "Io si"-The Life Ahead-look, I am a sucker for Diane Warren power ballads, just like the rest of the world. I can't help it. I had this song listed at like...14th place twenty minutes ago, and now here we are. I can't fight it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imjSm7FNmwE

3. "Edgar's Prayer"-Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar-it's such a bummer that I can't share this whole scene with you, as it's one of the great moments of cinematic silliness, but this'll have to do. This isn't even a musical! Jamie Dornan just turns to the camera and starts singing about how he's gonna spin himself into the ground like a baby ballerina! This movie is a masterpiece.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCe4votU-8A

2. "Your Name Engraved Herein"-Your Name Engraved Herein-comes as a real gut-punch in the context of the narrative, and then comes again as a *second* gut-punch as the slow, gentle version plays over the last moments of the movie. A great example of using a song as a narrative point to stellar effect, and the song itself is lovely as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PThAcbA8z6I

1. "Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga-there are just far too many things that I can't resist. A massive power ballad! Silly, wonderful costumes! Rachel McAdams! The movie's conflict being solved by a Talent Show (basically)! A dramatic switch to Icelandic! And only one thing I don't (what is the half-life of a Will Ferrell, and when is it safe to put him in the side of a mountain forever?)! Be still my heart.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjuphuG3ndw

Honorable mention: Leslie Odom Jr.'s impassioned "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami

And that's for year-end lists, if you can believe it (and I definitely can, since my hands feel like they are made of butter and tears). You're not done with me yet, as I'll be posting Oscar predictions tomorrow, and nomination reactions the day after (it's a busy time for this blog, so get ready to shelter in place), but that's it for the lists! They've taken plenty out of me this year, but I'm glad, as always, that I made the time and energy to do it. 

For those playing along at home, these were the movies that showed up most frequently on the lists:

Sound of Metal-8
First Cow-6
Minari-6
Nomadland-5
The Invisible Man-5

As for wins, Sound of Metal was the only movie to win more than one category, winning five (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Sound Mixing, and Sound Editing). 

So that's that! As always, thanks so much for reading (if you are, and even if you haven't!). I very much appreciate it. 

Best of 2020, Part 2: Acting, Directing, Screenplays

 

ACTING

Year in and year out, I find myself in a bit of a mid-list rut that has persisted since I decided to sit down and write every best-of moment at once and then post it on myspace (I gave best actor to Clint Eastwood. It was a dark time). For whatever reason, I just don't know what to say about all the big name categories. Like, I have so much to share with you about the spurt-y blood effects in Possessor or weird birdcage dresses in Emma or the carnivorous sets in Promising Young Woman, but I can't say I've got much impart about actors or writers or directors. It's a mystery, and you'd think I'd have accepted it by now, rather than complaining about it anew every year, but I am who I am (and who I am is stubborn trash).

So here's the deal: if you're looking for a punishingly long movie rundown in which you get to read lovingly crafted mini-essays about all the below-the-line aspects of filmmaking, come down tomorrow and you won't be disappointed. For now, however, rather than trying to say something about everyone, I'm just going to present my five nominees in the acting, writing, and directing categories, followed by some brief thoughts on the category at large. Which means this might only take you 10 minutes to read, rather than the rest of the year, and it'll only take me an hour or two to write, rather than until the heat death of the universe! What a concept. So let's get to it--I shall gird my loins and grit my teeth and all those other important gestures I apparently need to say nice things about acting.

Note: I've scattered a few youtube clips of the performances throughout. No rhyme or reason, just whatever I felt like going to find, whenever I felt like finding it.

Best Actress
5. Frances McDormand-Nomadland
4. Wunmi Mosaku-His House
3. Rachel McAdams-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
2. Sidney Flanigan-Never Rarely Sometimes Always
1. Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Honorable mention: Radha Blank-The Forty-Year-Old Version

A wacky kind of category this year, in that I legitimately played with all of the top 4 the #1 spot, and I think my ranking would change all over again if you asked me tomorrow. How do you deny Wunmi Masaku's haunted stoicism, or Rachel McAdams carrying the whole film on her sunny ridiculous shoulders? (Nothing this year made me laugh harder than "the elves went too far!") It's so tempting to give the whole deal to McAdams--she falls in love with Will Ferrell and makes it seem real! How's that not Oscar-worthy? Still, the real contest is probably between Flanigan and Davis, and it's difficult to deny the way Flanigan moves and speaks like an embankment, right up to the moment she crumbles and then re-assembles herself (definitely check out the scene from Never Rarely Sometimes Always that won the best scene of the year in the post from yesterday). But ultimately I had to stick with Davis's megalith of a woman, all gestures and ambitions and flouted love compressed like a neutron star.

Actor
5. Clarke Peters-Da 5 Bloods
4. Steven Yeun-Minari
3. Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
2. Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
1. Delroy Lindo-Da 5 Bloods

Honorable mention: Kingsley Ben-Adir-One Night in Miami

Another great category here. Particularly happy to give Clarke Peters a shout-out, since awards bodies don't seem to be interested--absolutely nothing in Da 5 Bloods would work if it didn't have Peters as the gentle beating heart at its center. Also love to see Steven Yeun in this post Walking Dead phase of his career, where he continues to deliver difficult, nuanced performances. Chadwick Boseman has been winning the lion's share of prizes this year, and with good reason: his turn in Ma Rainey is as ferocious and dedicated as anything you'll see this year. I almost went with Riz Ahmed, who would easily win this category in another year--what a masterclass of restraint and interiority (shame there aren't any great youtube clips, but seriously, go watch the movie--but not this week, as I am re-re-encouraging you to participate in the Amazon boycott that lasts until the 13th). But I couldn't put anyone above Delroy Lindo this year, who navigates the wildest turns of an already wild movie with grace. Lindo's character sees ghosts, he says, and it's not difficult to take him at face value. And remember that impossible, minutes-long monologue to the camera near the end of the film? How difficult it must have been to pull that off at all, much less sell it with the energy and conviction that Lindo brings. Just a fantastic, charismatic, lived-in performance, and it'll be a real bummer if he gets passed over by the Academy.

Supporting Actress
5. Youn Yuh-jung-Minari
4. Yeri Han-Minari
3. Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
2. Candice Bergen-Let Them All Talk
1. Miranda Hart-Emma.

Honorable mention: Molly Parker-Pieces of a Woman

Another strong showing for Minari's stellar ensemble--couldn't decide between Youn Yuh-jung's scrappy grandma and Yeri Han's mix of defeat and tenacity, so I just went with both. Bakalova is ridiculous but undeniable--somehow, improbably, this Borat sequel has a legitimate emotional arc whose power comes entirely from Bakalova's giddiness and loyalty. Plus, she's doing improv comedy in a second language with people who literally might start shooting if they knew what was going on. I know we don't grade on degree of difficulty, but come on. (Also, "I swallowed the baby" made me aspirate half of my entire meal.) (Uh, tw: talk of abortion, implied incest in that clip, because it's a Borat movie.) Candice Bergen never plays down, even when the film is playing down on her, playing the broke palimpsest queen of the cruise ship. My top choice, though, has gone completely under the radar. Maybe I've got a very specific Miranda Hart-related weakness? Every time I see her in a movie, I want to toss a bunch of golden statues at her, but nobody else every joins me on that particular train. But Hart is such a joy to watch here: silly, clever, kind, and confused, the kind of woman who has already forgiven life for what it has done to her, but still doesn't quite know what to do in return. This picnic scene is the clear Oscar clip (if that were happening, which it's not, tragically), but it doesn't necessarily convey the way she radiates her own warm into the rest of an (intentionally) chilly movie.

Supporting Actor
5. Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
4. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II-The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Chris Lowell-Promising Young Woman
2. Aldis Hodge-One Night in Miami
1. Paul Raci-Sound of Metal

Honorable mention: Bo Burnham-Promising Young Woman

Some very off-consensus picks here and some very on-consensus ones. Kaluuya, arguably the Oscar frontrunner, makes for a stirring Fred Hampton--the oration sequences alone are worth the price of admission. Abdul-Mateen II and Hodge feel like the clear standouts of their respective large ensembles to me, but the conversation at large hasn't really mirrored that (and both are missing on Youtube as well, with their more famous screen partners burning all the available oxygen). I might be courting controversy by including Chris Lowell; I don't want to spoil the film if you haven't seen it, but I freely acknowledge that singling him out over every performance in the film is...a choice. But the petulance and the pathetic way he screws up his face to cry have stuck with me, and it's my party, so here he is. (Here's a scene, but definitely don't click on it if you haven't seen the movie already.) Which brings us to Paul Raci, who's the clear and obvious winner, and is probably my pick for performance of the year (give or take Delroy Lindo). 

Director

5. Kelly Reichardt-First Cow
4. Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman
3. Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
2. Eliza Hittman-Never Rarely Sometimes Always
1. Darius Marder-Sound of Metal

Honorable mention: Isabel Sandoval-Lingua Franca

Lots of wonderful choices this year, from Reichardt's stew of control and intuition, the wild provocations and immaculate framing that Emerald Fennell threw into Promising Young Woman, and soon-to-be Oscar winner Chloe Zhao's keen eye for lives lived circling the margins in Nomadland. It would have been easy to give #1 to Eliza Hittman, whose even-handedness and dogged downplaying of real-life horrors are a real achievement. But the choice was ultimately (a little too) easy for me, as Marder put together one of the most well-crafted and observed movies of the year and made it sing, if only to itself.

Original Screenplay
5. Relic
4. Becurau
3. Minari
2. Sound of Metal
1. Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Honorable mention: The Forty-Year-Old Version

Eclectic group of nominees here, from the labyrinthine memory horror of Relic to the genre-mashing antics of Bacurau. I don't necessarily love Minari as much as everyone else (though you'd be hard-pressed to see that, given all its mentions thus far), but I couldn't deny the grace and depth with which it blends childhood and migration narratives. Almost put Sound of Metal at the top, as my love for that movie is clearly just a little out of control, but decided at the last minute on Never Rarely Sometimes Always's immaculate structure and heavy silences.

Adapted Screenplay
5. The Invisible Man
4. Emma.
3. One Night in Miami
2. Nomadland
1. First Cow

Honorable mention: News of the World

I've been struggling all year to fill this category--somehow most of what I watched wasn't adapted, and if it was, I didn't love it. So I've rounded out my nominees somewhat by default, but that doesn't mean there's nothing to be found here, like Invisible Man's clever genre reworking or the way that Emma. skips over its source material like a rock sliding over ice. One Night in Miami is a great example of how to adapt a stage play, if you're looking for something that is both loyal to the theater experience and a successful piece of film. Nomadland would be a great call, I'm giving it to First Cow's look at frontier entrepreneurship, the possibility of dreams, and the inevitable ugliness baked into the founding American myths.

And once again, that's it for tonight! I'll be back tomorrow (or Saturday, depending on real-world responsibilities) to wax poetic about CGI faces sci-fi laser sounds, and I'll be back again on Sunday to offer up some predictions for Monday's Oscar predictions.