Ok, that's maybe a little uncharitable.
This year's Oscar nominations are out, and despite me coming in hot with the melodrama, they're a pretty solid bunch. The Academy's been working pretty hard to change their memberships in terms of diversity and artistic adventurousness, and it's yielded some great crops in the past years, particularly in terms of getting the Academy to reconsider what it means to be a 'best' picture. Can you even imagine movies like Barbie, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest making the list even 10 years ago? And now here we are. So things aren't that bad--no particularly exciting surprises and some pretty egregious snubs, but overall a strong bunch of movies. Hey, they didn't even nominate one of my five least favorite films of the year for best picture like usual! (...though this is subject to change. I'm looking at you, Maestro. God, watching Maestro is like getting punched by every member of a symphony in quick succession but every member of that symphony is so pleased with themselves that they pass out from the sheer weight of their own artistic brilliance.)
One of the big stories this year might be the (re-)commercialization of Oscar fare, or maybe the Oscarification of commercial fare. Last year's ceremony saw the top 2 highest grossing movies of the year (Avatar, Top Gun) both nominated for best picture for the first time, plus plenty of other big hits, and this year we get Barbenheimer plus a solid mix of high-performing movies (Killers of the Flower Moon) and less commercially successful fare (The Zone of Interest, Past Lives). Whether people are spending more money on seeing prestige fare than they did 10 years ago or because the Academy's slowly widened its concept of prestige to include mainstream popcorn work, people are seeing Oscar movies again--and hey, guess what, it probably still won't change the telecast's ratings.
Another major narrative has to be about total precursor lockstep, each awards body uniting around the same 10 movies and never looking back. I don't know if this is due to an overabundance of awards before the Oscars (as of today, IMDB currently lists Oppenheimer as having an absolutely ridiculous 227 award wins and 352 nominations beyond that--how are those numbers even real?) or if it's due to the flattening of opinion that has to come with larger voting bodies (the Academy has almost doubled in size in the past 10-ish years) or that comes with every conversation taking place between the same people on social media. Either way, a the number of individual films being nominated each year is consistently down, with nominations in almost any category becoming more and more difficult to secure without a best picture nomination. There's only one category this year without a best picture nominee (visual effects), and only three more (makeup, sound, original song) that have more than one nominee that isn't also a best picture nominee. I'm not sure how to fix that, but I definitely think it's a problem. Are the 10 best picture nominees strong movies? Mostly! Are they undoubtedly the best of the year in every single aspect of filmmaking? Absolutely not!
But enough of all that--let's look at the nominations! I'll put an asterisk next to the nominations I predicted correctly, of which aren't terribly many. I predicted lots of surprises, and got very few surprises in return.
Best Picture
American Fiction*
Anatomy of a Fall*
Barbie*
The Holdovers*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Maestro*
Oppenheimer*
Past Lives*
Poor Things*
The Zone of Interest
The big story here is that there is no big story--these ten movies have dominated the awards circuit and will surely continue through the Oscars. The only category likely not to be won by these movies is Visual Effects, and that's only because none of them are nominated (and we surely narrowly avoided a Poor Things win there). Luckily for us, the worst thing I can say about almost all of these movies is that they're just good or fine (other than Maestro, which is a felony that Bradley Cooper has committed against us all). Worth pointing out that this is the first time that three films directed by women (Barbie, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives) have been nominated for best picture in the same year, as well as the first year in which two non-English language movies (Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest) were nominated in best picture. My wacky Saltburn pick didn't come to fruition, and maybe that isn't a bad thing. I know I'm in the minority in liking it, but boy is that a movie that was made to struggle under the mantle of a best picture nominee. One assumes this is Oppenheimer's to lose, but I can still hold out for something weird like Killers or Barbie or even Anatomy of a Fall giving it a run for its money.
Early winner prediction: Oppenheimer
Director
Jonathan Glazer-The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things*
Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer*
Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon*
Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall*
The obvious story is Greta Gerwig missing for Barbie, which already feels vaguely egregious--Barbie's a movie that seems almost impossible to make, and Gerwig made it look easy. It helps that this is a potential all-timer of a director lineup. I'm not the biggest fan of Lanthimos' work on Poor Things, but I know I'm in the minority there, as well as in my only average admiration for Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer work. Groovy to see Glazer get recognition like this, which is a long time coming. Also, at 81, Martin Scorsese becomes the oldest person to be nominated for best director.
Early winner prediction: Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Actress
Annette Bening-Nyad
Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon*
Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall*
Carey Mulligan-Maestro*
Emma Stone-Poor Things*
Like with director, the big story is again the Barbie snub, with Margot Robbie missing out for a major best picture contender that she carries on her shoulders--real bummer. Also a shame to see Greta Lee/Past Lives missing, but it's fun to see Gladstone and Hüller get their first Oscar nominations (and Gladstone is the first indigenous woman to be nominated in this category). This will also be the only place that I won't quietly retch at the inclusion of Maestro, since Mulligan is wonderful in her role, regardless of what hoops the movie makes her jump through.
Early winner prediction: Emma Stone-Poor Things
Actor
Bradley Cooper-Maestro*
Colman Domingo-Rustin*
Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers*
Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer*
Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction*
Love to see Colman Domingo get in for his stellar performance in what could have been an easily overlooked movie--and he becomes only the second out queer man to be nominated for playing a queer character (the first being Ian McKellen for Gods and Monsters). My excitement is tempered somewhat but Bradley Cooper's deeply embarrassing Oscar-mugging also making the cut, especially over Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Barry Keoghan/Saltburn, but that's showbiz, I guess.
Early winner prediction: Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer*
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple*
America Ferrera-Barbie
Jodie Foster-Nyad*
Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers*
Boy, that somewhat surprising Ferrera nod--by no means a sure thing going into the morning--really gave us all unrealistic expectations for how high Barbie's Oscar dreams could soar, huh? I do love the phrase 'Academy Award nominee Emily Blunt' but am less enthused that it came as a result of this performance, an Oscar-baity supportive wife role in a prestige drama, instead of the genre work she's committed herself to over the past almost 20 years. Thrilled for Randolph and Brooks, though. Fun to note that Jodie Foster's nomination makes this the first time in history that two out queer people were nominated for playing queer characters in the same year.
Early winner prediction: Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown-American Fiction
Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer*
Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon*
Ryan Gosling-Barbie*
Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things
I'm going to have to sit quietly while everyone cheers Robert Downey Jr. on to an Oscar, aren't I? Truly, no one has a harder life than I do. As always, this is one of the duller categories of the morning. Just imagined if we'd gotten Charles Melton claiming Riverdale's first Oscar nomination, or getting some real chaos with a Jacob Elordi/Saltburn nomination. Instead we've got a passel of mostly fine performances (with, to be fair, a couple great ones).
Earl winner prediction: Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall*
The Holdovers*
Maestro
May December*
Past Lives*
Arguably both my favorite and least favorite nominations can be found here. Thrilled that May December got at least one nomination, particularly for its impossibly tricky screenplay, and gutted that Maestro, a movie that fails in its characterization, narrative, and dialogue, somehow fell ass-backwards into recognition here. Still, sans Maestro, this is a gorgeous category. Unfortunately, that is a massive and comic sans, so I've got to downgrade from 'gorgeous' to 'pretty neat.
Early winner prediction: Anatomy of a Fall
Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction*
Barbie*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*
The Zone of Interest
Killers of the Flower Moon missing a nomination here is absolutely insane to me, and I hope it is to you. Still, the arguable frontrunner missing at the last moment allows for an absolute bloodbath between the top four contenders. I can't help but wonder if Greta Gerwig missing out in director gives her an advantage here? There's sure to be some blowback for not nominating her in director, and giving her an Oscar anyway to make up for it feels plausible.
Early winner prediction: Barbie
Production Design
Barbie*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Napoleon
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*
Get ready for a long below the line gamut of the same four or five movies dominating every category. Did you not love Poor Things? Too bad! Think Oppenheimer is overrated? Time to rate in seven more times! This isn't a bad list, but it lacks imagination.
Early winner prediction: Barbie
Costume Design
Barbie*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Napoleon*
Oppenheimer
Poor Things*
Same nominees as the last category with the same category. Worth pointing out that Napoleon had a bigger run than most anticipated. It's the most nominated non best picture nominee of the year with three, which isn't a huge tally but seems to have been hard-won.
Early winner prediction: Barbie
Visual Effects
The Creator*
Godzilla Minus One*
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3*
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon*
Maybe my favorite category, not least of which is because the branch clearly put an effort to look beyond the front of the precursor pack and choose things they might not normally have chosen. So we have a movie that heavily emphasizes practical effects (Mission Impossible), a movie whose production put tons of work and effort into doing effects in a way that respects visual effects artists' time and mental health (The Creator), supporting effects in a big-budget epic (Napoleon), a small budget movie making the most of its resources (Godzilla), and Marvel's one lonely nod for the year. Fun fact: both the Godzilla and Mission: Impossible franchises got their first ever Oscar nominations this year, even though they've been around for 70 (!) and 30 years, respectively.
Early winner prediction: The Creator
Makeup
Golda
Maestro*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*
Society of the Snow*
I said yesterday that I wanted to bet on hope--to act recklessly on the assumption that the Academy did not want to personally victimize me this year. And look where it got me: watching Golda after I finish this post. I will never believe in hope again. And speaking of meaningless melodrama, I need to start assuming that any makeup work I hate is destined for Oscar glory, because Maestro's here and it's barreling toward the win. Still, groovy that Society of the Snow's work got in, and, to a lesser extent, that Oppenheimer got a nomination for subtle aging effects that still left its actors looking like human beings by the end (man Maestro sucks).
Early winner prediction: Maestro
Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall*
The Holdovers*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things
Statistics indicate that your future best picture winner probably can be found on this list. It's not impossible to win best picture without being nominated for editing, but it certainly helps. And as such, this isn't a bad list of finalists, though I'd much prefer Poor Things to have made way for something else.
Early winner prediction: Oppenheimer
Cinematography
El Conde*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Maestro*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*
Sure, why not? So many of these crafts categories are Oppenheimer's to lose that the other nominees begin to feel like afterthoughts. Is this where we might most expect to see Killers upset that narrative?
Early winner prediction: Oppenheimer
Original Score
American Fiction*
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*
Feeling good about predicting this category correctly, if not for the fact that it actually happened. I've got a sixth sense for finding the right flavor of mild and/or atrocious music that the Academy music branch must surely love (imagine me, Cassandra-like, sitting in the theater saying 'I hate every note of this, it will definitely be present at the Oscars), and American Fiction sure fit that bill. John Williams (Indiana Jones) again helps to prove that the music branch will always happily vote on name recognition alone, but Poor Things helps to refute that a little bit--a first-time conductor nominated for a deeply strange and atypical (for this branch, anyway) score.
Early winner prediction: Oppenheimer
Sound
The Creator
Maestro*
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer*
The Zone of Interest*
One of the more surprising categories of the morning--who knew that The Creator and Mission: Impossible were beloved enough to beat higher-profile contenders like Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie? Still, this is clearly Oppenheimer's to lose--or is it? Is it too much to hope for a last-minute Zone of Interest push?
Early winner prediction: The Zone of Interest (why not, dream big)
Original Song
"The Fire Inside"-Flamin' Hot*
"I'm Just Ken"-Barbie*
"It Never Went Away"-American Symphony*
"Wahzhazhe (Song for My People)"-Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For"-Barbie*
In many ways this category continues to be the bane of my existence. Once again, Diane Warren latches a wizened claw onto our hearts and drags us into the direst depths of Hades (which this year takes the form of having to watch a movie about the goddamn invention of Flaming-ass Cheetos just to listen to the credits song). What has she done to attain this level of love? They had to pause the nomination announcement because people wouldn't stop cheering Diane Warren's name. What blood pact has she signed? What rituals of atonement must we one day undertake for allowing this? I was also super pumped that I didn't have to watch American Symphony (a surprise snub; see below), and then this happened to me and now here we are. It's pretty fun that "Wahzhazhe" got in, making for one of the most atypical entries in this category in some time. Also fun that, whatever happens, we're going to get at least one Barbie Oscar.
Early winner prediction: "I'm Just Ken"-Barbie
Animated Film
The Boy and the Heron*
Elemental*
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse*
What a shame that my beloved-ish Turtle movie didn't make it here, but I can't feel too churlish about a weird queer fantasy getting in instead. I'll have to watch Robot Dreams before I decide how annoyed or giddy I'd like to be.
Early winner prediction: The Boy and the Heron (once again, dream big)
International Film
Io Capitano-Italy
Perfect Days-Japan
Society of the Snow-Spain*
The Teacher's Lounge-Germany*
The Zone of Interest-The United Kingdom*
Haven't seen the majority of these, so I can't opine too much, other than to say that The Zone of Interest will win this in a walk. Kind of a bummer for non-European countries (Mexico, Tunisia, Morocco, and Bhutan) left on the shortlist that couldn't make it to the end.
Early winner prediction: The Zone of Interest
Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol*
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory*
Four Daughters*
To Kill a Tiger
As always, my first major work after the Oscar nominations is to try and catch up on documentaries--and I've seen none of these, so I've got a ways to go. Surprising in a not surprising way to see American Symphony miss here. This category has a habit of cold shouldering the big frontrunner in favor of lesser known titles; I even went on a whole tirade yesterday about how I almost predicted this happening and then didn't. So I'm happy to pretend that I did--wow, look at his powers of documentary prognostication, he's everyone's favorite X-Man!
Early winner prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol
Of the non-specialized categories (i.e. not animated, international, or documentary), I've seen most of the nominees already, missing only Mission: Impossible, Golda, El Conde, Flamin' Hot, and American Symphony. None of these on there own should be an obstacle to seeing all the nominees, since they're all streaming and/or rentable. The other categories, however, are going to make it difficult. All three of the international film nominees I haven't seen aren't available in any way, and might not come to theaters near me, and one of the documentaries is also totally MIA (and the other is only streaming on Disney+, which is a hurdle in itself). So we'll see! It'll all come down to how many of these movies feel like screening in the middle of the country.
Predictions-wise, I did pretty well--if not exceptionally--across the board. I only totally nailed Actor, Cinematography, and Original Score, but I only missed at least two in Sound, Animated Film, International Film, and Documentary, and didn't totally flub any category. Not too bad, considering all the flights of fancy in which I indulged.
For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:
1. Oppenheimer-13
2. Poor Things-11
3. Killers of the Flower Moon-10
4. Barbie-8
5. Maestro-7
6. Anatomy of a Fall-5
7. The Zone of Interest-5
8. The Holdovers-5
9. American Fiction-5
10. Napoleon-3
And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: Saltburn, All of Us Strangers, The Iron Claw, Origin, Ferrari, The Boys in the Boat, Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret., Priscilla, Asteroid City, Fallen Leaves, Wonka, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Beau is Afraid, Wish, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Knock at the Cabin, The Eight Mountains, Bottoms, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Cassandro, Theater Camp, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Amount Thieves, The Killer
You win some, you lose some.
And there we have it! What makes you furious, thrilled, or horrified? As Always, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I love the Oscars and all the silly things tha tcome with them, and every year before the nominations i have trouble sleeping, like a kid before Christmas. It's silly and stupid, but something ought to be,
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