Oscar Predictions 2013, Part 2: Directing/Screenplays

If you're reading this, you came back for more today. Apparently, so did I. Someone needs to have a long, sad conversation with us about our priorities. Maybe we need to re-evaluate our goals. Or we could talk about trophies for famous people! Goal re-evaluating is hard, so I'm just going to spend some time today talking about awards for the two careers I will someday inevitably fail at: directing and screenplays!

Best Director
So here's what we know: Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, and American Hustle are the frontrunners for best picture, which means it'd be totally silly to bet against any of their directors here--Alfonso Cuaron, Steve McQueen, and David O. Russell, respectively (sidebar: how wonderful is it that Cuaron's about to get a nod? I mean sure, I'm going to pretend that this is for Y Tu Mama, Tambien and Children of Men, but whatevs, Gravity's cool too). That leaves us with two spots.
The first spot: Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips. The movie's a big hit, it's critically respected, it's headed for a big nomination tally on Thursday morning, and it hasn't missed a beat. Greengrass *might* miss here, but I doubt it.
The second spot: Carnage. Silliness and carnage. Our three merry contenders:
Spike Jonze, Her: Jonze's movie has been a surprisingly powerful force on the awards circuit thus far, nabbingt critics awards and Golden Globe noms willy-nilly. And yet I'm still afraid that Her isn't going to play well for the notoriously blue-haired Academy, which is a shame, because whatever Her's faults may be, Jonze's precise direction is not among them.
Alexander Payne, Nebraska: Sure, he's scored for his past two movies, but eventually enough will have to be enough, right? I assume so, but I'm not sure the time is now--Payne's little ode to elderly plains denizens may hit an Academy sweet-spot.
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street: Confession: I haven't yet seen this movie, no doubt due to the fact that I'm currently wintering at least 45 minutes away from the nearest theater. I'm going to rectify this next weekend during my joyful return to society, but for now, I can't comment too accurately on this movie's Academy appeal. Which is too bad, because I've absolutely no idea how to judge whether or not this movie's got any. It may be way too controversial, or it might seem attractively risky. And it is Scorsese, whom the Academy loves. ...Except when they don't. This is a really tough call.

Now, I'm not saying that only those three men have a chance at nabbing a spot (remember Benh Zeitlin and Beasts of the Southern Wild getting in here last year? Who saw that coming?), but I'm basically saying that these three men are the only ones with a chance of nabbing a spot.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave
Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity
David O. Russell-American Hustle
Paul Greengrass-Captain Phillips
Alexander Payne-Nebraska
Alternates: Martin Scorsese-The Wolf of Wall Street, Spike Jonze-Her

(Man, I am so going to switch Scorsese into the top 5 for my final predictions on Thursday.)

Original Screenplay
Something strange has happened this year, in that the original screenplay category--normally a steel cage match for scrappy indies, unlikely hits, and art-house foreign fare--is chockablock with best picture nominees. Wacky. While this may be good news for the state of original ideas vis a vis critical and box office hits in Hollywood, it does make this category a slightly joyless place. The tragedy. So let's start with what we know: American Hustle is in (even though it's allegedly very reliant on improv), because it's a legitimate shot to win best picture. Nebraska and Her should be golden; they're both likely best picture nominees, and they're both written by well-respected auteurs (Alexander Payne and Spike Jonze) who have scored in this category even when their films have missed in other places. So what's left? It looks like a rumble between slipperier, weirder best picture hopefuls and larger, less agressively "written" best picture hopefuls. Yay! Such suspense. On the slippery front, we've got Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine and the Coens' Inside Llewn Davis. Honestly, I'd feel like I could stop there, considering Allen and the Coens basically rule this category with an iron fist which clutches an attractive yet affordable pen, but Gravity and Dallas Buyers Club keep popping up everywhere, despite criticisms leveled at both films' screenplays. For now, I'm hoping the Academy goes for slippery rather than easy, but we never know.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
American Hustle
Nebraska
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Blue Jasmine
Alternates: Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity

(Man, I am so going to move Dallas Buyers Club into my top 5 before Thursday. ...You guys, I'm terrible at this.)

Adapted Screenplay
If Original Screenplay is stuffed with best picture hopefuls this year, then we must assume a corollary: that Adapted Screenplay this year is a torrid wasteland where failed prestige pics go to die. In a year with a relative dearth of quality work on this side, one would hope that the branch would work a little harder, nominating more challenging/little-seen fare like Blue is the Warmest Color or Short Term 12. Tragically, hoping is, generally speaking, stupid. So what have we got instead? Two sure things: 12 Years a Slave and Captain Phillips, whose presence in this category is basically the most certain thing around. And then we've got four films fighting for two slots. They are:
August: Osage County-here's the kicker; no one really loves this film, and most people agree that its adaptation from stage to screen was a fairly bungled process. That said, playwright Tracy Letts' dialogue really sings, and lazy voters could check this one off just because it gave Julia Roberts the chance to scream "eat the fish, bitch!" at a drug-addled Meryl Streep.
Before Midnight-in a just world, there'd be no question about this film getting nominated (or winning). Alas. As is, this scrappy little guy is going to have to throw some serious punches to shovel some of its higher-profile contenders out of the way.
Philomena-So confused by this one. I don't know that anyone remembers this movie, or that anyone particularly loves it, and yet it keeps showing up. So who knows? Maybe the branch will throw a curve-ball and leave this totally acceptable movie out in favor of better work, or maybe 'totally acceptable' is good enough.
The Wolf of Wall Street-see above, re: me, having no clue as to how this one's Oscar chances will shake out. I'm going to say....maybe? That seems like a good bet. Maybe.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
The Wolf of Wall Street
Before Midnight
Philomena
Alternates: August: Osage County, Short Term 12


Shockingly, that's it for today. Tomorrow, I'll jump into acting categories, and will do my best to turn some silly phrases. Tonight, I'm going to watch movie starts get enjoyably drunk while having shiny pieces of hardware flung lovingly at their heads by equally drunk journalists. So the Golden Globes. Always fun. I don't know that I'll ever forgive the universe for not birthing me as the adopted sun of Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. Oh for what could have been. This is a cruel, cruel world.

Oscar Predictions 2013, part 1: Picture

Another year, another flotilla of Oscar predictions. As far as hobbies are concerned, Oscar-watching seems like a particularly dubious one--the Oscars are like high school political campaigns mixed with America's Next Top Model mixed with just so, so much glitter. It's all kind of strange. But, as I say every year, Tradition, Dammit! I've got a wacky, shiny-golden-man-induced illness, and all of you are here to enable me. Thanks. So today starts my annual 5-day blitz of Oscar nomination predictions, which will be unveiled bright and early on Thursday the 16th. Today we'll do Picture and a few categories no one follows, tomorrow will be directing and screenplays, Monday will be acting, Tuesday will be craft categories, and I'll be back on Wednesday to put up my final picks. Sounds fun! ....Probably. If you like shiny, golden men, I guess.

Best Picture
A quick reminder regarding the Academy's rules with this category--there can be anywhere between 5 to 10 nominees, depending on the balloting process. Although it involves some terribly complicated math, the gist of what determines the number of nominees is this: every nominee must receive at least 5% of the #1 votes from Academy ballots (although there's some readjusting that happens so that #2 and #3 spots sometimes become #1. It's weird. Don't ask me to explain). So what matters most here is a passionate following. Sure, a film can be widely enjoyed, but if it's not loved, then it's got a steep uphill climb. That being said:
Group 1: These movies are going to waste yours and my time, pretending that they might not get nominated, when come on guys, you're not fooling anyone:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Nebraska
So yeah. Like I said. These movies gotta stop pretending that we're not going to hear their names called on Thursday morning. These are done deals.
Group 2: Safe is a relative term, or: Yeah, I'm not qualified to make definite statements here.
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Saving Mr. Banks
It's terribly difficult to come down on either side for these movies. All have serious positive and negative elements working for and/or against them. Dallas was never expected to be a serious player, but, lo and behold, every guild and awards body between here and the moon have collectively lost their knickers over it, which is frankly a little bit unfathomable to me. Her is a huge critics it, and very widely respected, but might its story about falling in love with your computer play a little young for Academy voters? The exact opposite can be saide for Saving Mr. Banks--it's hardly been critically respected, but it's the kind of middle-of-the-road, inspirational soft-ball that the Academy can't help but love.
Group 3: Oscars Beyond Thunderdome: Two films enter, one film leaves.
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wolf of Wall Street
Every year we've had the preferential balloting system thus far, we've had nine nominees, so it seems silly not to predict nine again. That being said, who takes the ninth spot? One of these films, probably, but still, picking is kind of a bear. Wolf might be too controversial, Llewyn might be too definatly inscrutable. It's a toss-up. Alternately...
Group 4: And Suddenly, Harvey Weinstein. Harvey Weinstein Everywhere.
August: Osage County
Blue Jasmine
The Butler
Fruitvale Station
Philomena
For those of you who don't know, Harvey Weinstein basically invented the Oscar-game as we know it today, and all of the above movies except one are Weinstein productions. His company, Miramax, had a spectacular run of best picture winners in the 90s, and since founding his new company (named the Weinstein company, naturally) in 2007, there has yet to be a best picture lineup without a Weinstein-backed film. And yet here we are, and none of poor Harvey's films have really taken flight. Of course, that doesn't mean one of them won't muscle through (and I wouldn't be surprised if one did), but right now it seems all of the following Harvey films are on the outside looking in:
*note: I've also included Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine in here--it's not a Weinstein film, but it's still got a chance at crashing the party.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Nebraska
Her
Saving Mr. Banks
Dallas Buyers Club
The Wolf of Wall Street
Alternates: Inside Llewyn Davis, Philomena

Everyone bear in mind that I totally reserve the right to completely change my mind by Wednesday.

Next, we're going to blast through a few categories that few people really follow. Yay!

Animated Film
Unfortunately, this has been a notoriously grim year as far as quality in mainstream animation is concerned. Does this mean that the Academy will turn to indie fare and foreign work to fill the category, or will they resign themselves to voting for sequels? Good question. Here's what we do know: Disney's mega-hit Frozen will have to mud-wrestle Hayao Miyazaki's (allegedly) final film The Wind Rises for the win, and Pixar's brand is not yet so tarnished that Monsters University won't easily nab a nom. The rest, however, is more difficult. On the commercial side, The Croods and Despicable Me 2 look like the best bets, with only Epic being something else the voters can choose without feeling bad about themselves. On the indie side, French hit Ernest and Celestine is apparently fantastic, but how many voters will actually see it? The Same can be said for O Apostolo and A Letter to Momo: South American and Japanese productions, respectively, which are allegedly wonderful, but who has heard of them stateside?

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Monsters University
Ernest and Celestine
The Croods
Alternates: Despicable Me 2, A Letter to Momo

Foreign Film
The Academy has already done most of the heavy lifting for us by narrowing down the category to a list of 9 finalists, which are:
The Broken Circle Breakdown-Belgium
An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker-Bosnia and Herzegovina
The Grandmaster-Hong Kong
The Great Beauty-Italy
The Hunt-Denmark
The Missing Picture-Cambodia
The Notebook-Hungary
Omar-Palestine
Two Lives-Germany
Bearing in mind that I've only seen one of these films (The Hunt), who to pick? The Hunt has been a prize hog all year, and is probably the frontrunner, while The Broken Circle Breakdown is probably enjoying its runner-up status right now. Beyond that, things get murky. Will the Academy go for the baity-sounding WWII narrative of Two Lives or The Notebook? Will the Fellini-esque shenanigans of The Great Beauty be just right, or too much? Will Cambodia's Khmer-Rouge-as-told-by-puppets The Missing Picture be too weird? Will The Grandmaster be too superficial? So many questions, and I don't have any answers. ...Other than the fact that I'm pretty sure An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker has no chance. Sexy title, guys.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Hunt-Denmark
The Broken Circle Breakdown-Belgium
Two Lives-Germany
The Notebook-Hungary
The Great Beauty-Italy
Alternates: The Grandmaster-Hong Kong, Omar-Palestine

Documentary Feature
Here's the category I know least about, mostly because the majority of these films will never come to a theater to me, and probably aren't on DVD yet. So I'm not going to spend much time here. 20 Feet From Stardom and Blackfish are immensely popular, Stories We Tell and The Act of Killing (two great films which I've actually seen) have been the clear critical favorites but might be too unorthodox for the Academy, and Tim's Vermeer, Dirty Wars, God Loves Uganda, and The Armstrong Lie all have points in their favor. I think the sneaky favorite, however, is The Square--a documentary about the Egyptian revolution which feels too timely to pass up.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom
Blackfish
Stories We Tell
Tim's Vermeer
Alternates: The Act of Killing, Dirty Wars

That's it for today. Tune in tomorrow as I continue chipping away at predictions before Thursday!

Final 2012 Oscar Predictions: Fly-By-Night Edition

Seriously, you guys.
You guys, seriously.

I don't think I'm exaggerating or overreacting when I say that this has easily been the most unpredictable, tumultuous, bizarrely satisfying Oscar season in the ten years that I've been following them (....ohmygod I am getting way too old). The process leading up to nominations was exciting, the nominations themselves were both hugely surprising and (even more surprisingly) largely well-deserved. And the competition for some races, even the big ones, has raged; there's an invigorating lack of obvious front-runners in so many categories.
Basically what I'm trying to say is that I'm probably going to get most of these wrong, and I'm going to love it. So take these with a grain of salt. Don't put too much money on anything I say. Pretty much I'm going to be throwing darts and hoping for the best, and I wouldn't have it any other way. So let's get to it!

Best of 2012, part 5: My Dream Oscar Ballot/Discussions About the Future

Alright, the list madness finally comes to an end. Today's really more of a wrap-up than an actual post. Just in case reading hours and hours of lists isn't your thing, I'm going to list all my picks here. No commentary, just alphabetical nominees with winners in bold. Stick around for the end and you'll be rewarded with a video! Oh happy day! And if you're around after that, we'll have a little discussion about the future of this blog.

Best of 2012, Part 4: Craft Categories

Well, it's the last big 'best of' post for another year, so I suppose we all ought to savor this together. Today we're going to look at all of the craft categories, which is to say all of the awesome elements of film-making which most audience members tend to ignore. So let's shower these movies and these people with love! Someone ought to, after all.
Before we get started, I suppose I ought to define some categories:
Art Direction: Production design: creating, designing, and building the world in which the movie takes place. Generally associated with set-building, but also stretches to conceptual aspects
Costume Design: ...The design of the costumes.Visual Effects: Special Effects. CGI, models, etc.Makeup: ...makeup.Film Editing: Editing the movie: cutting in some places, lengthening in others. Generally responsible for the rhythm of a film, as well as keeping continuity and making sense of the plot.Cinematography: In layman's terms, how pretty the movie is. Screen composition, lighting, camera techniques, etc.Original Score: Music composed for the film itself.Sound Mixing: Blending the four film sound elements (dialogue, sound effects, ambient noise, music) to create a coherent overall mix.Sound Effects Editing: creating the sound elements and sound effects heard in the film.Original Song: Songs written specifically for the film.

Now that we've got all that straight...

Best of 2012, Part 3: Acting

Once more into the breach, dear friends...(as an aside, I don't think a year goes by in which I don't reference Henry V while blogging. Weird.) Today's post is a doozy, so I'm just going to throw myself into it. Today we're talking about acting; arguably the easiest element of cinema for the joe-average moviegoer to appreciate and evaluate. So I'm gonna get around to appreciating.
Note-I'll try to include youtube clips where I can, but too many of these movies haven't made it to DVD yet, so clips are kind of scarce.

Best of 2012, Part 2: Directing and Screenplays

Hello again! I've no idea how (or even if) any of you made it through yesterday's embarrassingly large post, but if did make it through unscathed, then you're a stronger person than I. In deference to your clearly superhuman abilities, I'll try to keep this post a little shorter. Today, we'll look at the categories I like to be the most judgmental about, because they're the categories I plan to be not successful in professionally: directing and screenplays! So let's get to it.