Once more into the breach, dear friends (hey there, Henry V! I was wondering when you'd show up). It's a funny thing, acting--it's the most visible and easily praised aspect of movies by average-joe viewers like us, and yet I find it more difficult to say something compelling about acting than just about anything else. Want me to talk about sound editing? I'll do it and I'll like it. Get me to talk about movie stars and crying scenes and such though, and suddenly I clam up like a big clammy clam. So we're gonna try anyway and see what happens, but I apologize if my use of adverbs gets a little...irresponsible. That happens sometimes.
Note--I'll try to include youtube clips of the performances where I can, but no guarantees.
Check it out after the jump!
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Friday, February 21, 2014
Best of 2013, part 2: Directing/Screenplays
Welcome back! Mind you, I say 'welcome back' knowing full well that yesterday's post probably left most of you in a deep, deep coma, so this 'welcome back' is mostly hypothetical. But welcome back anyway, dear viewers who have yet to succumb to the acute brain trauma caused by reading these things. As a bit of an olive branch and/or act of mercy, today's post will be much shorter. We'll keep it to three categories--directing and screenplays. Commence with the rejoicing after the jump!
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Best of 2013, Part 1: Top 20, Zen Awards
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Thursday, January 16, 2014
Oscar Nominations: Stupid, Stupid, Stupid Dallas Buyers Club
Luckily, nobody comes here for the accuracy of my predictions (hopefully), because this year I dropped the ball quite a bit. That's a whole lot more fun, though--if I predicted everything correctly, that would mean that there was never a contest, which is no fun. So let's get to it! Some good picks, more boring ones, you know, the usual.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Alright kids, here's how it works. Tomorrow morning at about 6:00 AM mountain time, the Academy is going to do it's level best to make everyone who predicts these things look foolish. And let's be honest--they're pretty darn good at it. So by tomorrow we can all laugh at what we thought might happen, and analyze what did happen until we're blue in the face. But that's tomorrow. Today, I'm delivering my final predictions--there's no going back now. I'll just present every category in order of likelihood sans commentary, allowing myself one alternate. Surprisingly, I made very few changes from my original predictions. The only significant ones were changing Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) to first alternate in supporting actress over Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station), and moving American Hustle into my top 5 for production design, which meant kicking Saving Mr. Banks out.
Note: I know it seems a bit silly spending all of this time and effort talking about what might get nominated for awards when I haven't actually posted anything about what I'd like to get nominated for awards, but, as usual, my annual 'best of' lists will be coming in mid-February. Given the release dates of prestige-y movies and catching up on things I've missed, it just wouldn't be possible for me to post a decent year-end list in early January. Here's a taste, though: if I could guarantee one nomination, it would be Inside Llewyn Davis for best picture (or best actor), and if could prevent any nomination, it would be Dallas Buyers Club in original screenplay (or best picture) (good lord I hate that movie) (seriously).
See them all after the jump...
Note: I know it seems a bit silly spending all of this time and effort talking about what might get nominated for awards when I haven't actually posted anything about what I'd like to get nominated for awards, but, as usual, my annual 'best of' lists will be coming in mid-February. Given the release dates of prestige-y movies and catching up on things I've missed, it just wouldn't be possible for me to post a decent year-end list in early January. Here's a taste, though: if I could guarantee one nomination, it would be Inside Llewyn Davis for best picture (or best actor), and if could prevent any nomination, it would be Dallas Buyers Club in original screenplay (or best picture) (good lord I hate that movie) (seriously).
See them all after the jump...
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Oscar Predictions 2013, part 4: Craft Categories
Rest easy, y'all, because today's the last big day of predictions before Thursday's announcement--a day which is basically better than Christmas in my eyes. In case you're not the kind of person who's getting super worked up about who's going to get nominated for sound editing this year (go Upstream Color!), I'll keep today's commentary brief; in part because attempting to predict these kinds of awards can be a bit silly. That's right, today we're diving into the craft categories--the ones the cinephiles love, and the ones everyone else uses as an opportunity to go to the bathroom. Fun for the whole family! So here goes.
Production Design
The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Gravity
Saving Mr. Banks
Alternates: American Hustle, Inside Llewyn Davis
I actually feel pretty confident about this lineup. The only strong spoiler is American Hustle, which just might be a huge player across the board. If so, it might knock out The Hobbit (but no Lord of the Rings film has ever missed a nomination in this category), Gravity (it might be seen as too many space shots and not enough set-work, but this movie's also gonna be a sweeper) or Saving Mr. Banks (if they don't love this movie like I think they will). If the branch is feeling frisky, they'll spring for Her or Inside Llewyn Davis, or if they're feeling super-traditional they'll go for The Butler or The Invisible Woman.
Costume Design
The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
Saving Mr. Banks
American Hustle
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Alternates: The Invisible Woman, The Butler
It's probably a bit risky predicting The Hunger Games' wacky, gorgeous capital couture here, but it is the highest-grossing film of the year, and only two highest-grossers in the past 30 years have failed to score a nod with the Academy. So Hunger Games gets shuffled in. I really ought to have The Invisible Woman in the top 5, given this branch's incurable love affair with Victorian-era England. Alas. I'm fairly confident about the other four, and honestly I don't see anything else pushing past the seven I've listed. Maybe Her, if they're feeling super wacky? Maybe Inside Llewyn Davis? Probably not.
Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man Three
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness
Alternates: Elysium, Oblivion
Obviously Gravity is going to win, but what four films will get the honor of losing to it? I feel awfully confident about the first four; the last slot is a total guess. As it were, the Academy has already released a list of 10 finalists in this category. The other three I haven't listed yet are Thor: The Dark World, The Lone Ranger, and World War Z. Honestly I don't feel confident predicting anything other than those top four, but I've got to settle on something. So I decided Elysium, Oblivion, and The Lone Ranger were too critically despised, and Thor and World War Z weren't bringing enough to the table. That left Star Trek, whose predecessor did score here, so weirder things have happened.
Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
The Lone Ranger
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters
Alternates: Bad Grandpa, Dallas Buyers Club
I've only got Hansel and Gretel in here because I read an article in a German magazine about the makeup work, and everyone seemed duly impressed with it, so it must be fate. I really ought to have Bad Grandpa in here, but I've decided not to include it, mostly because I don't want to feel obligated to sit down and watch the thing. Really, though, this is a category in which basically anything could happen. Like Visual Effects, it's already been narrowed down to seven finalists, the last of which are The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and The Great Gatsby. Any of these seven films getting in or missing wouldn't surprise me.
Film Editing
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Rush
Alternates: The Wolf of Wall Street, Lone Survivor
Basically this category is a horse-race between Rush and The Wolf of Wall Street for the last slot. I'm going with Rush, if only because Wolf has a three-hour running time, and I've heard more than a fair share of people call the film bloated. Which isn't a great word when competing for editing, but oh well. Inside Llewyn Davis or All is Lost could surprise, but I really doubt it.
Cinematography
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave
Nebraska
Prisoners
Alternates: The Grandmaster, Captain Phillips
Here's another race where it's down to seven, but I don't really see anything breaking my top 5. The first three are golden, Nebraska is in black and white which they always nominate here, and Prisoners is lensed by demigod Richard Deakins, who gets in more often than not, regardless of whether the film itself has support. I might be able to see The Grandmaster force its way in their, but don't count on it. Other long shots to not count on are Her, Rush, and All is Lost.
Original Score
12 Years a Slave
Saving Mr. Banks
The Book Thief
Gravity
All is Lost
Alternates: Philomena, Captain Phillips
I'm going out on a bit of a limb, predicting that All is Lost will kick Philomena out, but I've been kicking Philomena out of a lot of places lately, and All is Lost *did* win the Golden Globe in this category the other night. Still, don't be surprised to see Philomena make it instead. ...Which would make for a painfully boring category, but whatever. If they're feeling really crazy they'll go for Her, but when does this branch ever feel crazy? Never, that's when. This is the most notoriously insular and timid branch in the Academy--generally, only one new composer is nominated per year, and then it's back to playing old favorites. Which is why I probably shouldn't have both Gravity and All is Lost here (they're both written by un-nominated composers), but the hell with it.
Sound Mixing
Gravity
Captain Phillips
12 Years a Slave
Lone Survivor
Rush
Alternates: Inside Llewyn Davis, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
It was a last-minute call between Rush and Davis, but I decided to stick with Ron Howard's crappy little car movie. Don't be surprised to see Inside Llewyn Davis's live-recorded vocals sneaking in here, a la Les Mis from last year. All is Lost could also break the mold, and it would be wonderful to see World War Z find some traction here, but let's not get our hopes up.
Sound Editing
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush
Captain Phillips
Iron Man Three
Alternates: All is Lost, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
I should probably admit upfront that I'm terrible at predicting sound nominations. Oh well. Honestly, I'm only sure that Gravity will get in, and the rest is basically a crap-shoot. All is Lost could very easily score, and 12 Years a Slave could totally pull an Argo-esque pair of sound nods as the best picture frontrunner. Even summer blockbusters like Man of Steel or Pacific Rim could come into play here. Basically, take all of these picks with a very large and tasty grain of salt.
Original Song
"Let it Go"-Frozen
"Young and Beautiful"-The Great Gatsby
"In the Middle of the Night"-The Butler
"Ordinary Love"-Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
"A Little Party Never Killed Nobody (All We Got)"-The Great Gatsby
Alternates: "You and I Ain't Nothin' No More"-The Butler, "The Moon Song"-Her
I'm being a little wonky here. Conventional wisdom suggests that Her's lovely little acoustic ballad is a sure thing. That being said, every year, some lovely little song that's integral to the plot but not particularly flashy misses the nomination to screams and howls of outrage, and "The Moon Song" seems tailor-made to do exactly that. Instead, I'm making a totally left-field choice and am picking the dance anthem that underscores Gatsby's most memorable party scene. Am I wrong? Probably. But this category is year in and year out the most difficult to predict, in that the people who vote for it have no sense of consistency, rules, or much of anything, really. So it's just throwing darts. Even 'sure things' like "Let it Go" and "Young and Beautiful" have been known to miss, so we'll just close our eyes, pin our tail on the donkey, and see where we go from here. Other possibilities include "I See Fire" from The Hobbit, "So You Know What It's Like" from Short Term 12, "Atlas" from The Hunger Games, "Amen" from All is Lost, and basically a ton of songs from movies neither you nor I have ever heard of (I kid you not, on the eligibility list are four songs from something called Kama Sutra 3D. The more you know).
Believe it or not (and I bet you're going to believe it), that's it as far as new predictions are concerned. Tomorrow I'll bang out a list of final *final* predictions (pretty sure I'm going to want to move a thing or two around), but we're almost to the finish line! Rejoice!
Production Design
The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Gravity
Saving Mr. Banks
Alternates: American Hustle, Inside Llewyn Davis
I actually feel pretty confident about this lineup. The only strong spoiler is American Hustle, which just might be a huge player across the board. If so, it might knock out The Hobbit (but no Lord of the Rings film has ever missed a nomination in this category), Gravity (it might be seen as too many space shots and not enough set-work, but this movie's also gonna be a sweeper) or Saving Mr. Banks (if they don't love this movie like I think they will). If the branch is feeling frisky, they'll spring for Her or Inside Llewyn Davis, or if they're feeling super-traditional they'll go for The Butler or The Invisible Woman.
Costume Design
The Great Gatsby
12 Years a Slave
Saving Mr. Banks
American Hustle
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Alternates: The Invisible Woman, The Butler
It's probably a bit risky predicting The Hunger Games' wacky, gorgeous capital couture here, but it is the highest-grossing film of the year, and only two highest-grossers in the past 30 years have failed to score a nod with the Academy. So Hunger Games gets shuffled in. I really ought to have The Invisible Woman in the top 5, given this branch's incurable love affair with Victorian-era England. Alas. I'm fairly confident about the other four, and honestly I don't see anything else pushing past the seven I've listed. Maybe Her, if they're feeling super wacky? Maybe Inside Llewyn Davis? Probably not.
Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man Three
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness
Alternates: Elysium, Oblivion
Obviously Gravity is going to win, but what four films will get the honor of losing to it? I feel awfully confident about the first four; the last slot is a total guess. As it were, the Academy has already released a list of 10 finalists in this category. The other three I haven't listed yet are Thor: The Dark World, The Lone Ranger, and World War Z. Honestly I don't feel confident predicting anything other than those top four, but I've got to settle on something. So I decided Elysium, Oblivion, and The Lone Ranger were too critically despised, and Thor and World War Z weren't bringing enough to the table. That left Star Trek, whose predecessor did score here, so weirder things have happened.
Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
The Lone Ranger
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters
Alternates: Bad Grandpa, Dallas Buyers Club
I've only got Hansel and Gretel in here because I read an article in a German magazine about the makeup work, and everyone seemed duly impressed with it, so it must be fate. I really ought to have Bad Grandpa in here, but I've decided not to include it, mostly because I don't want to feel obligated to sit down and watch the thing. Really, though, this is a category in which basically anything could happen. Like Visual Effects, it's already been narrowed down to seven finalists, the last of which are The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and The Great Gatsby. Any of these seven films getting in or missing wouldn't surprise me.
Film Editing
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Rush
Alternates: The Wolf of Wall Street, Lone Survivor
Basically this category is a horse-race between Rush and The Wolf of Wall Street for the last slot. I'm going with Rush, if only because Wolf has a three-hour running time, and I've heard more than a fair share of people call the film bloated. Which isn't a great word when competing for editing, but oh well. Inside Llewyn Davis or All is Lost could surprise, but I really doubt it.
Cinematography
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave
Nebraska
Prisoners
Alternates: The Grandmaster, Captain Phillips
Here's another race where it's down to seven, but I don't really see anything breaking my top 5. The first three are golden, Nebraska is in black and white which they always nominate here, and Prisoners is lensed by demigod Richard Deakins, who gets in more often than not, regardless of whether the film itself has support. I might be able to see The Grandmaster force its way in their, but don't count on it. Other long shots to not count on are Her, Rush, and All is Lost.
Original Score
12 Years a Slave
Saving Mr. Banks
The Book Thief
Gravity
All is Lost
Alternates: Philomena, Captain Phillips
I'm going out on a bit of a limb, predicting that All is Lost will kick Philomena out, but I've been kicking Philomena out of a lot of places lately, and All is Lost *did* win the Golden Globe in this category the other night. Still, don't be surprised to see Philomena make it instead. ...Which would make for a painfully boring category, but whatever. If they're feeling really crazy they'll go for Her, but when does this branch ever feel crazy? Never, that's when. This is the most notoriously insular and timid branch in the Academy--generally, only one new composer is nominated per year, and then it's back to playing old favorites. Which is why I probably shouldn't have both Gravity and All is Lost here (they're both written by un-nominated composers), but the hell with it.
Sound Mixing
Gravity
Captain Phillips
12 Years a Slave
Lone Survivor
Rush
Alternates: Inside Llewyn Davis, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
It was a last-minute call between Rush and Davis, but I decided to stick with Ron Howard's crappy little car movie. Don't be surprised to see Inside Llewyn Davis's live-recorded vocals sneaking in here, a la Les Mis from last year. All is Lost could also break the mold, and it would be wonderful to see World War Z find some traction here, but let's not get our hopes up.
Sound Editing
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush
Captain Phillips
Iron Man Three
Alternates: All is Lost, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
I should probably admit upfront that I'm terrible at predicting sound nominations. Oh well. Honestly, I'm only sure that Gravity will get in, and the rest is basically a crap-shoot. All is Lost could very easily score, and 12 Years a Slave could totally pull an Argo-esque pair of sound nods as the best picture frontrunner. Even summer blockbusters like Man of Steel or Pacific Rim could come into play here. Basically, take all of these picks with a very large and tasty grain of salt.
Original Song
"Let it Go"-Frozen
"Young and Beautiful"-The Great Gatsby
"In the Middle of the Night"-The Butler
"Ordinary Love"-Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
"A Little Party Never Killed Nobody (All We Got)"-The Great Gatsby
Alternates: "You and I Ain't Nothin' No More"-The Butler, "The Moon Song"-Her
I'm being a little wonky here. Conventional wisdom suggests that Her's lovely little acoustic ballad is a sure thing. That being said, every year, some lovely little song that's integral to the plot but not particularly flashy misses the nomination to screams and howls of outrage, and "The Moon Song" seems tailor-made to do exactly that. Instead, I'm making a totally left-field choice and am picking the dance anthem that underscores Gatsby's most memorable party scene. Am I wrong? Probably. But this category is year in and year out the most difficult to predict, in that the people who vote for it have no sense of consistency, rules, or much of anything, really. So it's just throwing darts. Even 'sure things' like "Let it Go" and "Young and Beautiful" have been known to miss, so we'll just close our eyes, pin our tail on the donkey, and see where we go from here. Other possibilities include "I See Fire" from The Hobbit, "So You Know What It's Like" from Short Term 12, "Atlas" from The Hunger Games, "Amen" from All is Lost, and basically a ton of songs from movies neither you nor I have ever heard of (I kid you not, on the eligibility list are four songs from something called Kama Sutra 3D. The more you know).
Believe it or not (and I bet you're going to believe it), that's it as far as new predictions are concerned. Tomorrow I'll bang out a list of final *final* predictions (pretty sure I'm going to want to move a thing or two around), but we're almost to the finish line! Rejoice!
Monday, January 13, 2014
Oscar Predictions 2013, part 3: Acting
Back again. I had hoped to come up with an introduction a little wittier or involving, but I'm trying to knock this one out before I run off to work, so we'll have to save witty for later. I'm sure someday very soon I'll come up with some one-liners that will blow your friggin' mind. Probably. Anywho, limp intros aside, let's keep rolling here! Today we'll deal with the rest of the major categories; also, coincidentally, the last time we'll talk about names most of us actually recognize until nominations are announced.
Best Actor
So here's an academic question: is it harder to predict a category where everything's up in the air, or is it harder to predict when everything's nailed down except for one slot? I suppose we're about to find out, because this category is basically set in stone, except for one slot, which is probably going to cause me to eat my fingers or something. So here's how it goes--we've got four obvious 'gimme' slots that won't be stolen by anyone. They are:
Bruce Dern-Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
It's probably between Ejiofor and McConaughey (blarg) for the win, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. The real kicker is that fifth spot, which is making me feel like James Dean in Rebel Without a Cause--first they do one thing, then they do another, then they turn it all back again. So who's making me feel this bitter existential woe? Let's strut them out like a hirsute and manfully adult Miss America pageant:
-Christian Bale-American Hustle: No lie--I'm really bored by this performance. It's adequate enough, but I hardly think 'adequate' is a great adjective for what people are apparently considering for the best performance of the year. And they are, for whatever reason. Bale keeps popping up like a cheeky Whackamole, and I can't do anything about it. His movie is really firing on all cylinders on the awards circuit right now, which helps.
-Leonardo Dicaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street: some people are arguing (rightly or wrongly) that Dicaprio is due for some Academy love, and they just might get their wish this year. Wolf is hitting its stride at just the right time, which helps, considering most Academy members vote like they've got the attention span of a goldfish, and Dicaprio allegedly plays against the mopey, dead-wives-club thing he's been riffing on for the past six years.
-Robert Redford-All is Lost: If you'd asked me in October, I'd have said that Redford was the favorite to win. But then the the Oscar campaign for this maritime survival thriller really sunk (sorry), and now all may truly be lost (someone please stop me) for Redford's Oscar hopes. That being said, he is Robert friggin' Redford, which means there will be plenty of voters who'll chalk his name up out of some sense of patriarchal obligation.
-Forest Whitaker-The Butler: Yeah, I don't really want to consider this possibility either, but here we are. Granted, The Butler has been nowhere to be found lately, and Whitaker's performance is profoundly un-flashy (which is not great for easily distracted voters), but hey, stranger things have happened.
My Predictions, in order of Likelihood:
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
Bruce Dern-Nebraska
Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips
Robert Redford-All is Lost
Alternates: Leonardo Dicaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street, Christian Bale-American Hustle
Yep, I'm sticking with traditional, boring, conventional wisdom. I'm sure I'll regret that later, but oh well.
Best Actress
Continuing in the annals of "come on you guys, make up your minds already, because that last slot is seriously going to kill me," howdy this category! Honestly, I'm pretty sure I'm not going to know who I predict until I type it. Seriously, I've no idea right now. This category is killer. There are six ladies fighting for five slots, and I might have thought earlier that it was a two-way race, now I'm beginning to think that almost anybody's vulnerable. So let's start with what we do know: Cate Blanchett will be winning an Oscar for Blue Jasmine, which means that she's probably going to get nominated first. So that's one slot down. Sandra Bullock is also in great shape for her film-anchoring role in Gravity. So there's two. So what about the next three slots? Well, as Dante would say, abandon hope, all ye who enter here, because here is utterly ridiculous. The ladies:
-Amy Adams-American Hustle: Or should I say Golden Globe Winner Amy Adams, whose triumph last night in the Best Actress, Musical/Comedy category made me re-evaluate this performance's chance at being included. She's funny, she's sexy, she's arguably the heart of a best picture frontrunner. Why haven't I been more cavalier about her chances?
-Judi Dench-Philomena: Here's a woman about whose chance's I've been totally cavalier, and now I don't know how to feel about that. One the one hand, she's Judi Dench, and she's lovely. On the other hand, does anyone actually care about Philomena? Therein lies the crux--if the Academy secretly loves her movie, she's golden. If they don't, then she's in trouble.
-Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks: Thompson's in exactly the same boat Dench is in--I'm just not sure how many people out there love her movie enough to nominate her. I do know, however, that people are absolutely over the moon about Thompson herself (as well they should be; she's basically a golden god), so I feel slightly more confident for her.
-Meryl Streep-August: Osage County: Oh look! What a crazy random happenstance! It's another possibility whose success depends on hitherto undisplayed expressions of love for the movie itself! August: Osage County doesn't exactly have a ton of support, but it is Meryl Streep, who could probably get nominated if she had personally murdered every Academy member's grandparents. What I'm saying is she doesn't need the movie's help to get in, and the performance is deliriously showy. But too showy? There's been a fair amount of criticism and calls of hamming thrown her way. That can't help.
Well that didn't really narrow anything down, did it? I'm kind of tempted to just predict a bunch of longshots here instead, like Brie Larson in Short Term 12, Adele Exarchapoulos in Blue is the Warmest Color, and Julie Delpy in Before Midnight. And while I'm not saying that none of those women can't sneak in while the higher-profile ladies are fighting like pigs in the mud, I'm not sure I'm crazy and/or brave enough to predict it happening. So, uh, here goes. Still not sure whose name I'm going to right. Yay!
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks
Amy Adams-American Hustle
Meryl Streep-August: Osage County
Alternates: Judi Dench-Philomena, Brie Larson-Short Term 12
Well that's surprising. I actually was calling for Judi Dench to be a threat to win less than a month ago. Weird.
Supporting Actor
I wish I could tell you that things were easier here, but I don't want to lie to you. Nope, like Best Actress, this category is one big train wreck and I don't know what to do about it. While this is exciting from the perspective of a spectator, for predicting purposes it's kind of a slow-motion nightmare. So, once again, we'll start with what we know and move from there. What we know: Jared Leto will probably win for Dallas Buyers Club, Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave will nip at his heels, and Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips will just get to be thrilled that he's not driving limos anymore (....background: this is Abdi's first film role; he was previously a limo driver). So once more, we've got a limited number of slots (two, for those counting at home), and too many men trying to fill them. They are:
-Daniel Bruhl-Rush: I know, I know, I wasn't expecting Ron Howard's car movie to stick around either. And yet Bruhl keeps showing up (it is a good performance, and he is popular enough). Even though he keeps getting nominated for things, however, I've got a sneaking suspicion that he'll be left out. Or maybe not. Seriously, he's been nominated for basically everything.
-Bradley Cooper-American Hustle: I don't know if the world's ready for two-time Academy Award Nominee Bradley Cooper, but we just might have to get ready quick. It's a showy role in a best picture front-runner, and Cooper's pretty popular. Still, maybe his coke-addled ramblings will be too over-the-top for the older Oscar voters?
-Will Forte-Nebraska: Because every SNL alum needs an Oscar eventually. Nebraska's been looking a little weak lately, which makes me hesitant to predict Mr. Forte here, but he is a co-lead (which helps) in a respected movie with some strong emotional beats. He's got a good shot.
-James Gandolfini-Enough Said: aka the "sorry we didn't nominate you while you were alive" slot. Sure, he's good in the role, and maybe I'm being too cynical, but I can't help but feel like his chances have lasted this long because he's recently dead. So how sentimental will the Academy be feeling?
-Jonah Hill-The Wolf of Wall Street: If we're not ready for two-time nominee Bradley Cooper, we're definitely not ready for two-time nominee Jonah Hill. This one depends entirely on how much the Academy loves The Wolf of Wall Street. If it's a hit with them, he gets in. If it's not, he doesn't. Plain and simple.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender-12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper-American Hustle
Will Forte-Nebraska
Alternates: Daniel Bruhl-Rush, James Gandolfini-Enough Said
Totally didn't expect that one. Will Forte? Really? That's definitely wrong.
Supporting Actress
Everyone rejoice! This category is probably really easy! And because this is already unbearably long, I'm going to keep it easy. So here goes: Lupita Nyong'o's heart-wrenching performance in 12 Years a Slave is in. Jennifer Lawrence's crazy housewife in American Hustle is in. June Squibb's crazy older housewife in Nebraska is in. Oprah's mildly crazy housewife in The Butler is in. Julia Robert's attempting-to-not-be-crazy recently divorced housewife in August: Osage County is probably in. ....Lots of housewives this year. Roberts is the only weak-ish one here. Maybe she'll be replaced by Octavia Spencer in Fruitvale Station or Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine (both wives with jobs! What a change of pace!), but this feels like the final five to me.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
June Squibb-Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey-The Butler
Julia Roberts-August: Osage County
Alternates: Octavia Spencer-Fruitvale Station, Sally Hawkins-Blue Jasmine
That was so, so long. I'm so sorry for that. These categories were hard. I tried. If you're still here you're a stronger person than I. Tomorrow I wrap up analysis, before heading into super-serious final predictions on Wednesday.
Best Actor
So here's an academic question: is it harder to predict a category where everything's up in the air, or is it harder to predict when everything's nailed down except for one slot? I suppose we're about to find out, because this category is basically set in stone, except for one slot, which is probably going to cause me to eat my fingers or something. So here's how it goes--we've got four obvious 'gimme' slots that won't be stolen by anyone. They are:
Bruce Dern-Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
It's probably between Ejiofor and McConaughey (blarg) for the win, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. The real kicker is that fifth spot, which is making me feel like James Dean in Rebel Without a Cause--first they do one thing, then they do another, then they turn it all back again. So who's making me feel this bitter existential woe? Let's strut them out like a hirsute and manfully adult Miss America pageant:
-Christian Bale-American Hustle: No lie--I'm really bored by this performance. It's adequate enough, but I hardly think 'adequate' is a great adjective for what people are apparently considering for the best performance of the year. And they are, for whatever reason. Bale keeps popping up like a cheeky Whackamole, and I can't do anything about it. His movie is really firing on all cylinders on the awards circuit right now, which helps.
-Leonardo Dicaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street: some people are arguing (rightly or wrongly) that Dicaprio is due for some Academy love, and they just might get their wish this year. Wolf is hitting its stride at just the right time, which helps, considering most Academy members vote like they've got the attention span of a goldfish, and Dicaprio allegedly plays against the mopey, dead-wives-club thing he's been riffing on for the past six years.
-Robert Redford-All is Lost: If you'd asked me in October, I'd have said that Redford was the favorite to win. But then the the Oscar campaign for this maritime survival thriller really sunk (sorry), and now all may truly be lost (someone please stop me) for Redford's Oscar hopes. That being said, he is Robert friggin' Redford, which means there will be plenty of voters who'll chalk his name up out of some sense of patriarchal obligation.
-Forest Whitaker-The Butler: Yeah, I don't really want to consider this possibility either, but here we are. Granted, The Butler has been nowhere to be found lately, and Whitaker's performance is profoundly un-flashy (which is not great for easily distracted voters), but hey, stranger things have happened.
My Predictions, in order of Likelihood:
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
Bruce Dern-Nebraska
Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips
Robert Redford-All is Lost
Alternates: Leonardo Dicaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street, Christian Bale-American Hustle
Yep, I'm sticking with traditional, boring, conventional wisdom. I'm sure I'll regret that later, but oh well.
Best Actress
Continuing in the annals of "come on you guys, make up your minds already, because that last slot is seriously going to kill me," howdy this category! Honestly, I'm pretty sure I'm not going to know who I predict until I type it. Seriously, I've no idea right now. This category is killer. There are six ladies fighting for five slots, and I might have thought earlier that it was a two-way race, now I'm beginning to think that almost anybody's vulnerable. So let's start with what we do know: Cate Blanchett will be winning an Oscar for Blue Jasmine, which means that she's probably going to get nominated first. So that's one slot down. Sandra Bullock is also in great shape for her film-anchoring role in Gravity. So there's two. So what about the next three slots? Well, as Dante would say, abandon hope, all ye who enter here, because here is utterly ridiculous. The ladies:
-Amy Adams-American Hustle: Or should I say Golden Globe Winner Amy Adams, whose triumph last night in the Best Actress, Musical/Comedy category made me re-evaluate this performance's chance at being included. She's funny, she's sexy, she's arguably the heart of a best picture frontrunner. Why haven't I been more cavalier about her chances?
-Judi Dench-Philomena: Here's a woman about whose chance's I've been totally cavalier, and now I don't know how to feel about that. One the one hand, she's Judi Dench, and she's lovely. On the other hand, does anyone actually care about Philomena? Therein lies the crux--if the Academy secretly loves her movie, she's golden. If they don't, then she's in trouble.
-Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks: Thompson's in exactly the same boat Dench is in--I'm just not sure how many people out there love her movie enough to nominate her. I do know, however, that people are absolutely over the moon about Thompson herself (as well they should be; she's basically a golden god), so I feel slightly more confident for her.
-Meryl Streep-August: Osage County: Oh look! What a crazy random happenstance! It's another possibility whose success depends on hitherto undisplayed expressions of love for the movie itself! August: Osage County doesn't exactly have a ton of support, but it is Meryl Streep, who could probably get nominated if she had personally murdered every Academy member's grandparents. What I'm saying is she doesn't need the movie's help to get in, and the performance is deliriously showy. But too showy? There's been a fair amount of criticism and calls of hamming thrown her way. That can't help.
Well that didn't really narrow anything down, did it? I'm kind of tempted to just predict a bunch of longshots here instead, like Brie Larson in Short Term 12, Adele Exarchapoulos in Blue is the Warmest Color, and Julie Delpy in Before Midnight. And while I'm not saying that none of those women can't sneak in while the higher-profile ladies are fighting like pigs in the mud, I'm not sure I'm crazy and/or brave enough to predict it happening. So, uh, here goes. Still not sure whose name I'm going to right. Yay!
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks
Amy Adams-American Hustle
Meryl Streep-August: Osage County
Alternates: Judi Dench-Philomena, Brie Larson-Short Term 12
Well that's surprising. I actually was calling for Judi Dench to be a threat to win less than a month ago. Weird.
Supporting Actor
I wish I could tell you that things were easier here, but I don't want to lie to you. Nope, like Best Actress, this category is one big train wreck and I don't know what to do about it. While this is exciting from the perspective of a spectator, for predicting purposes it's kind of a slow-motion nightmare. So, once again, we'll start with what we know and move from there. What we know: Jared Leto will probably win for Dallas Buyers Club, Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave will nip at his heels, and Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips will just get to be thrilled that he's not driving limos anymore (....background: this is Abdi's first film role; he was previously a limo driver). So once more, we've got a limited number of slots (two, for those counting at home), and too many men trying to fill them. They are:
-Daniel Bruhl-Rush: I know, I know, I wasn't expecting Ron Howard's car movie to stick around either. And yet Bruhl keeps showing up (it is a good performance, and he is popular enough). Even though he keeps getting nominated for things, however, I've got a sneaking suspicion that he'll be left out. Or maybe not. Seriously, he's been nominated for basically everything.
-Bradley Cooper-American Hustle: I don't know if the world's ready for two-time Academy Award Nominee Bradley Cooper, but we just might have to get ready quick. It's a showy role in a best picture front-runner, and Cooper's pretty popular. Still, maybe his coke-addled ramblings will be too over-the-top for the older Oscar voters?
-Will Forte-Nebraska: Because every SNL alum needs an Oscar eventually. Nebraska's been looking a little weak lately, which makes me hesitant to predict Mr. Forte here, but he is a co-lead (which helps) in a respected movie with some strong emotional beats. He's got a good shot.
-James Gandolfini-Enough Said: aka the "sorry we didn't nominate you while you were alive" slot. Sure, he's good in the role, and maybe I'm being too cynical, but I can't help but feel like his chances have lasted this long because he's recently dead. So how sentimental will the Academy be feeling?
-Jonah Hill-The Wolf of Wall Street: If we're not ready for two-time nominee Bradley Cooper, we're definitely not ready for two-time nominee Jonah Hill. This one depends entirely on how much the Academy loves The Wolf of Wall Street. If it's a hit with them, he gets in. If it's not, he doesn't. Plain and simple.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender-12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper-American Hustle
Will Forte-Nebraska
Alternates: Daniel Bruhl-Rush, James Gandolfini-Enough Said
Totally didn't expect that one. Will Forte? Really? That's definitely wrong.
Supporting Actress
Everyone rejoice! This category is probably really easy! And because this is already unbearably long, I'm going to keep it easy. So here goes: Lupita Nyong'o's heart-wrenching performance in 12 Years a Slave is in. Jennifer Lawrence's crazy housewife in American Hustle is in. June Squibb's crazy older housewife in Nebraska is in. Oprah's mildly crazy housewife in The Butler is in. Julia Robert's attempting-to-not-be-crazy recently divorced housewife in August: Osage County is probably in. ....Lots of housewives this year. Roberts is the only weak-ish one here. Maybe she'll be replaced by Octavia Spencer in Fruitvale Station or Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine (both wives with jobs! What a change of pace!), but this feels like the final five to me.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
June Squibb-Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey-The Butler
Julia Roberts-August: Osage County
Alternates: Octavia Spencer-Fruitvale Station, Sally Hawkins-Blue Jasmine
That was so, so long. I'm so sorry for that. These categories were hard. I tried. If you're still here you're a stronger person than I. Tomorrow I wrap up analysis, before heading into super-serious final predictions on Wednesday.
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