Best of 24, Part One: The Top 20

 

Consider, if you will, the tennis ball that Josh O'Connor and Mike Faist slap around for the last ten minutes of Challengers. Does it know where it's going? Not at all. Is it having fun? Hard to say--periodically? Depending on how much it enjoys being knocked around in a meaningless frenzy. But has it spent enough time whirling around in said meaningless frenzy that it's kind of just cool with it? Probably. Does it scream "let's fucking goooooooooo" in its head every two to four seconds? Almost definitely (assuming it has the vocabulary of a chronically online 15 year old or of every single candidate that has ever been on American Ninja Warrior, a haven for people who like to go if ever there was one). Point is, the ball spins and it goes and it only sometimes wishes it weren't getting smacked by a racket every half a second.

The other point is--and this might come to surprise you--that hey, I am that tennis ball. I've spent the past few years using my intros to lament the general malaise and stagnation that I've found myself in after academia came crashing down around my ears. And granted, I'm still feeling those things, but I am still spinning and going and ready for Josh O'Connor to slap me with his tennis racket. I've had ups and downs this year, professionally and otherwise (a recent conversation I had with a pseudo-employer: "If all goes well you can call yourself an X publishing house editor soon" Me, in my head: "joke's on you, I applied to be an X publishing house editor two months ago and they didn't want me"), but I'm still kicking (right into senility, I assume), and I'm here for it, so here we go.

This new (and surely short-lived) enthusiasm also extends to movies and writing. The past two years have seen me weeping about how I didn't see that many movies, or how it felt difficult to incorporating them into my life, or how writing these posts felt like an unavoidable chore--one I wanted to do, without question, but still one I had to psych myself up for. Well throw all that trash out the proverbial window (or literal window, I'm not your babysitter), because this year I am straight psyched to start this--so psyched, in fact, that I'm starting to get a chance one or two movies that I'd meant to find before I wrote these. But it's best to strike when the iron is hot, and call my iron every major film star of the classic era, because my iron is smoking, and it's probably not going to last that long compared to other, more down to earth irons. 

Point is (is this the third point?) that I am excited to be here, and I'm excited you're here to share all this with.

(Sidebar: am I only striking this tone because I'm listening to the Challengers soundtrack? There is probably nothing on this earth I couldn't do a little cooler and more enthusiastically while listening to this soundtrack. Will definitely put it on whilst doing taxes, cleaning toilets, arranging funerals, staring quietly into the dead of night, etc.)

Last year, circumstances of all kinds kept me down to the low, low (for me) number of 74 movies from the 2023 calendar year. Well past me can suck it, because this year I've logged a neat 101 movies from 2024, which isn't a record for number of movies scene by 'best of' press time, but it's awfully close. And the result of that is....ehh? Followed by some lackadaisical shrugs and noodly arm motions. What a wildly off-consensus year for me--there are plenty of beloved movies out there, but I tended to find myself cool on (or actively antagonistic to) many of them. And even among those 101 movies, I'll admit there are fewer films that elicit real passion out of me than I'd like. But I don't think that's a bad thing! For me, the fun of all this comes from watching movies--however I feel about them--and sharing that with others, which is to say that watching 101 bad movies can be just as fun as watching 101 good movies. Luckily for all of us, neither of those extremes are the case this year, as you're soon to read. Lots of good stuff, lots of mediocre stuff, and a fair shaking of movies that made me gaze dully out the window, wishing that someone could find the first organism to crawl out of the primordial ocean and kick it back in before it made take a Gladiator sequel seriously.

I'll be continuing with my vaguely streamlined format this year (he says, meaning 8,000 words instead of 15,000), which is to say that paragraphs will be a littler shorter and pictures/links will be slightly more important. And I also don't think this is a bad thing, either: I'll probably never be able to return to the paragraphs-long entries for every category and movie that I so laboriously embraced when I was 19, but who was that helping? This way, you can read this in less time than it takes to read Moby Dick, and I can write these without developing debilitating arthritis in my hands at the age of however old I was two years ago. It also means that I will be copy-pasting any Letterboxd reviews I have for these movies over to here (though I will expand on them if I find them too insubstantial). This is a real shame for any of you who already follow me over there, and a less real but still important shame for those of you that don't, but I'd argue that the real shame is a) that no one has come to my home to break all my fingers yet, thus ending this nightmare for all of us, and b) that you don't all follow me on Letterboxd already, which is arguably the greater sin. Seriously, it's more or less the last good social media out there--it's just movie reviews, lists, pictures, and general silliness. If you enjoy these annual postings, you'll love it there, as you can find me doing this exact thing basically every day of the year. It is, in short, a certified hoot, and I highly encourage y'all to come play on it if movies play even a minor or tangential role in your life. So find me here if that's the sort of thing that interests you!

So here's how we'll proceed from here: 101 movies (in the past, I would make an alphabetized list of everything I've seen, but present me is old and tired, so feel free to just ask what I have and haven't seen!), a list of the 20 best movies of the year, the five worst ones, the best scenes of the year, and a truly punishing number of typos, bad jokes, and embarrassing outpourings of emotion. I'm excited--and you are either excited or tied to a chair and being forced to read this. And either way, You're here for the long haul, so we might as well all settle in.

Note: I had meant to see No Man's Land before writing this up, and I should be seeing it this week, but I decided not to wait. If it does crack the top 20 after the fact, I'll have to find a way to draw attention to that.

Honorable mentions: though they didn't make my top 20, I'm still grateful for the verdant, slothful stillness of Here (the Belgian movie, not the Robert Zemeckis fever dream of the same name), the high-octane antics and frolics of Thelma, and the carefully considered dilemmas and vape hits of Conclave.

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20. Monkey Man (dir. Dev Patel)

Loved this martial arts/revenge flick whose primary goal is to stage some of the gnarlier fight scenes in recent memory, but manages to hit plenty of other goals besides. Dev Patel's got stronger acting chops and a more consistent vision than most the people out there tossing their $200 million budgets around; somebody back a Brinks truck up to his house and let him go nuts.

(on Amazon Prime, rentable elsewhere)

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19. Big Boys (dir. Corey Sherman)

Wildly specific in its sidelong glances, half-realized hopes and fully realized fears, and in the performances of its stellar and keyed-in ensemble. Conjures the kinds of hazy memories that get pushed down and become less important as your come into yourself, but *god* were they earth-shaking as they happenedThe relationship between the two brothers also struck me as one of the most honestly and organically realized examples of antagonistic siblings that I'd seen in some time. Overall, a lovely (and at times totally mortifying) watch.

(rentable)

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18. Dune: Part Two (dir. Denis Villeneuve)

Gets an automatic pass purely based on the number of moments that made me sit up and say 'jesus christ' in the theater, but it doesn't need that pass anyway; it's a bigger, uglier, and more interesting than the first Dune. Kind of thrilling that blockbusters (or at least one of them) get to look and behave like this.

(on Netflix, Max, rentable)

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17. The End (dir. Joshua Oppenheimer)

Like watching people doing finger painting next to silhouettes burned onto the wall by an atomic bomb: naivete depicted in its best and worst iterations. Hideous--kind of a slow cinema horror movie, even?--and special, even if it never seems totally sure why it's a musical. The kind of movie that ensemble prizes were made for: everyone is fantastic, sure, but in such a specific way that makes it feel totally plausible to imagine that this group of people, their chemistry and dynamic, has been unearthed after decades in a bunker together.

(rentable)

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16. The Substance (dir. Coralie Fargeat)

A real experience in throwing everything into the woodchipper, genetically and aesthetically, just to see what gets stuck, but nothing wins me over like killer sound design and an eyeball inside another eyeball. It's not subtle (or is it so over the top that crashes back down onto subtle), and it's got substantially more buckets of blood than your average Hollywood satire, but it's stuck with me for months and remains compulsively rewatchable, even when (especially when) it's being kind of gross.

(rentable)

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15. Trap (dir. M. Night Shyamalan)

Shyamalan's movies, for all their ups and downs, are so proudly, resolutely their own thing, and they're always the better for it. Is there any other living director whose camera is so elegant, eloquent, and weird at the same time? This movie understands that Josh Hartnett is always at his best when everything good about him is being weaponized (like here or in The Virgin Suicides) or when he's being taken more seriously than anyone has ever been taken seriously before (like in Black Hawk Down or Oppenheimer), and Trap has the good sense to do both of those things.

(on Max, rentable)

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14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (dir. Mohammad Rasoulof)

Pretty miraculous in its existence, distribution, and execution, the way it weaves its own complexities, warmth, and horrors into a narrative that largely takes place inside an apartment or a phone. Feels like a sledgehammer in both the best and worst senses.

(rentable)

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13. Flow (dir. Gints Zilbalodis)

Somehow ended up being the movie I wanted both The Wild Robot and Ponyo to be while also being not at all the movie I expected to see. Staggering on a visual level--would that every director working in animation (or any medium) had as sharp a sense of blocking and framing as Zilbalodis does. There were moments in here that made me gasp from their beauty alone, or maybe their simplicity or their casual thematic resonance--lots of gasping, at any rate.

(on Max, rentable)

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12. Love Lies Bleeding (dir. Rose Glass)

The sound design alone is well worth the price of entry, but luckily, so is everything else. Went into this expecting to scream Kristen Stewart's name from the rooftops--and I've done that too--but my immediate impulse was to frantically google how I can see more of Katy O'Brien as soon as possible. (Imagine my horror discovering that I'd already seen her in Ant-Man: Quantumania--whatever, we're still cool). Is there any better combination than tender queer romance, hallucinatory imagery, and horrific violence? (...there probably are, but it's still a fun combo.)

(on Max, rentable)

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11. Sing Sing (dir. Greg Kwedar)

Phenomenally warm and moving stuff. At what point do we crown Colman Domingo as one of the best actors of his generation (or on the planet), because it's a crown he keeps earning. Not to take away from the ensemble cast, who are just as strong. Any moment not spent with the group and the theater production felt like a moment missed. It's all a huge and expansive achievement--and another in this year's line of movies about theater--that I'd happily seek out again.

(available on demand)

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10. Ghostlight (dir. Alex Thompson, Kelly O'Sullivan)

Great year for movies about how both art and healing are an active choice, and how both enrich how you experience the other. The movie levitates a little every time it drops the camera in a rehearsal room or performance and lets us spend time with the process of creating something out of nothing. Plus a series of shots near the end that gave me full-body chills--really special stuff.

(rentable)

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9.  A Different Man (dir. Aaron Schimberg)

Another (but not the last!) movie on this list about the cathartic or destructive power of theater, this time squashing questions of identity, disability, and how they exist both in the real world and as depicted in film into a giant, metaphor-shaped blender and shredding them into a hunk of material it shapes into a mask. Hard to think of an object that does more heavy lifting this year than Sebastian Stan's mask of his old face that he uses to help him perform a life that used to be his own. And speaking of Sebastian Stan, what a year that man's had--and he's at his absolute best here, by projecting oil as an excuse for charm when silence doesn't feel like it's enough.

(on Max, rentable)

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8. Nickel Boys (dir. RaMell Ross)

Could just as easily have been called The Persistence of Memory, if that title weren't already famously taken (and maybe a little gauche in a 2024 context). How people see, or are seen, and how these moments are passed through a dream filter and reconstructed to establish the shifting sand on which you can build a life, or an idea, or the whole world. Things that are personal become massive and structural, and things that are massive and structural shrink to the size of a shed, a lawn, or a street, which is to say almost invisible--except to the people that are looking Ross's experiment in first-person film is daring, joyous, and painful--a folded crane of a life (or lives) pushed into a camera lens.

(available on demand)

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7. Evil Does Not Exist (dir. Ryusuke Hamaguchi)

People love to personify nature, but when nature tears people apart, it doesn't feel anything at all--something it has in common with all of the other structures wrapped up against each other. Despair as a fundamentally empty and emptying experience, one that can creep into the smallest and most unnoticeable places. Things that don't matter until they're stacked on a ladder, a whole sequence of thoughtless little tragedies raining down on each other. An inevitable and mindless kick to the stomach filmed in slow motion.

(on the Criterion Channel, rentable)

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6. I Saw the TV Glow (dir. Jane Schoenbrun)

At the best of times, it's really, really hard to be what you already are, much less when there is someone in the moon who wants to put you in the ground. I'll always fall for movies about the transformative power of walking down familiar hallways made unfamiliar by light, sound, or the thing you're feeling today that doesn't feel like it did before. I'll doubly fall for anything that knows I can clock the Buffy credits font from a mile away. If theater as transformative tool is one recurring motif in this list, I also have to draw attention to the movies filmed and framed like horror movies but taking place entirely inside other genres (this one, Evil Does Not Exist, The End). 

(on Max, rentable)

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5. Better Man (dir. Michael Gracey)

Not one I had on my register as a sneak contender for my favorite movie of the year, but what can I do--it's so lush, romantic, peppy, starry-eyed, its heart gleefully stapled to its sleeve, that I was fully in its grasp (paws?) before the title card even dropped. Maybe a case of right movie at the time, but I laughed, I cried, I drove home buoyed, singing, feeling like I had "it," whatever that was supposed to mean, at least for a little while. A+ moviegoing experience, and a real tragedy that more people didn't go out for it.

(available on demand)

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4. Wicked (dir. Jon M. Chu)

Impossible for me to have watched this objectively as a tragic theater kid who came of age in the Aughts. With all the matching ridiculous and melodramatic baggage that this movie and I bring to each other, I couldn't walk out of this without feeling like it taught me how to feel joy again in some specific and looney way. It's not perfect (sometimes it's not even good--'Defying Gravity' is the easiest slam dunk out there, but the movie still managed to fumble it in like three different ways), and I couldn't really claim this is a perfect example of cinematic excellence that earned its spot here through skill alone, but it sure as shit is exactly what I wanted and/or needed this year, and I'm happy to embrace that. Who am I kidding--I absolutely loved this movie.

(available on demand)

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3. Kneecap (dir. Rich Peppiatt)

The whole runtime felt like sticking a fork into a socket, in the best way. Where's the word for feeling briefly close to an entire world that you've got absolutely nothing to do with? This movie had me feeling moved by the idea that I'm the last person in my family (on this side of the ocean) that still speaks German, a mundane but essential skill that they carried with them in a boat over a century ago, only for that mundane, essential skill to slowly slink away across the generations. Of course, there's an obvious world of difference between an endangered language whose use is itself a political act and learning a widely spoken language that your family used to speak, but here we are. Anyway, I had an absolute blast with this whirling dervish of a biopic/music movie/call to language and teared up when the radio worker told the boys she was learning Irish--not bad for a movie in which someone snorts an industrial amount of cocaine through a wrapping paper tube in front of an audience.

(on Netflix, rentable)

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2. All We Imagine as Light (dir. Payal Kapadia)

Difficult, for some reason, to express exactly how this made me feel, so I'll leave it short by saying that this movie does exactly what movies should--capture something something ineffable, something impermanent, and make it feel as though it can last forever. Achingly beautiful--a good reminder why cameras were invented, or maybe cities, or trains, or dreaming. 

(rentable)

(maybe it's cheating to use the same picture twice, but do you know how many pictures I am going to use this week)

1. Challengers (dir. Luca Guadagnino)

Nothing this movie doesn't want you to know about itself that can't be found in the first two minutes as it introduces the New Rochelle Phil's Tire Town Challenge in some little backyard tennis court with ESPN graphics and the music screaming like it's Wimbledon or the end of the world--and, obviously, it's both. Everything in this movie, like for most people, takes place at the halfway point between stupidity and grandeur. Everyone would be embarrassed if the camera pulled back just a little bit further and they could see themselves, but who ever sees themselves? It's all sweat and ripped insides and what might happen but probably won't but what if it did, right?, and the ridiculous (and real) certainty that whatever you're doing in this one stupid moment is the most important thing that has ever happened.

I was legitimately scared to blink for the entire ending sequence, and in plenty of other sequences besides. This movie felt like it crawled inside my brain and did some origami with it while Trent Reznor mauled a drum kit somewhere nearby, which is maybe the highest compliment I've got. A joy, a rush, a watertight argument for style as substance. What more could any of us want?

(on Amazon Prime, rentable)

And there's that! (I say, like I haven't been working on this since this morning). In interest of brevity (and the fact that I need to press 'publish' on this within the next 90 minutes or face terrible, terrible consequences), let's keep moving and dive into the best scenes of the year!

Note: I'll link to a clip where possible.

Note note: I generally avoid choosing endings for this category, but I'll mention if a scene contains big spoilers. 

Best Scenes of the Year

10. Fun on the Freeway-Carry-On

In a movie that's all about ratcheting up the tension until you can hardly breathe, this scene, in which a detective on the trail ends up fighting a suspect while driving down the freeway, takes the cake.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cx1jEhR8aFY

9. Hallway-I Saw the TV Glow

I already mentioned how much I love a good walking down a transformed hallway scene, and this example from I Saw the TV Glow really stands out, the main character strolling down previously hostile (or empty) school halls that have been with him his whole life, only now to be filled with the secret world that the two loners at the heart of the story have built for themselves. A triumph in mundane things--light, music, descriptions of a tv show that doesn't exist--creating something transcendent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RzFyHmcdm8

8. Angels-Better Man

What do you get when you mix a funeral scene with Robbie Williams' biggest, most emotional song? Thank goodness (and what a shame) that there was no one else in the theater when I saw this, because I was audibly sobbing by the time this scene was through.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtSO-MlH_6U

7. Dancing Through Life-Wicked

Is this on here because it's a high-energy musical number that ties all of the movies various emotional and narrative threads together and sends them on their merry way, or is it because Johnathan Bailey's performance so hot that literally everyone who saw this had to pick their jaw up off the ground when the number was over? Baby, it's both, but who care.

(Only clip I could find was this minute-long featurette: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6ReXhrp5Y4&t=10s)

6. Hotel Room-Challengers

Is this the awkward boner that launched a thousand ships and/or tennis balls? Challengers' inciting incident for a decade of shitty games knows it has to make us believe that everyone involved would spend years chasing this high, and it succeeds with flying colors and/or tennis balls. Funny, awkward, and--like all good uncomfortable threesomes you have with your best friend and the tennis pro you met three hours ago--desperately horny.

(Youtube only has the canoodling part of this scene, but here's that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8bQ_n5YrDpE)

5. Finale-Evil Does Not Exist

Vaguely senseless to put this here, as there are no Youtube clips and I'm not going to describe it at length so as to avoid spoilers, but all I can say is that if you've seen this movie, you will certainly remember the ending.

4. High Street/Rock DJ-Better Man

An astounding feet of short form storytelling, choreography, and pure energy--we dash through years of history without losing any of its coherence, the dopey joy of finding success as a boy band, or the fact that the main character's a bit of an asshole who can't help but hurt everything around him. Add all that to the giddy camera with its faux one take and you've got something electric.

https://youtu.be/v356_23728Q?si=eDMSLmfnbQxOdFFy&t=70

3. Nightclub Brawl-Monkey Man

Dev Patel works his way through a multi-story nightclub filled with an army of enforcers aided only by whatever he can pick up in the kitchen, a few fireworks, an army of trans women, and some stellar music cues. 6 minutes of ante-upping mania.

(no huge spoilers in this, but it does take place near the end of the movie, so bear that in mind if you want to go in not knowing much) (also this is pretty violent, so click with care: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPZKw6Nyx24)

2. Gas Station Labor-We Live In Time

Not necessarily a perfect movie, but it does have the good sense to take a 10 minute detour into perfection in the middle of the movie as the central couple gets stuck in traffic on the way to the hospital and ends up having their baby in a gas station bathroom with the attendants serving as put-upon midwives. The scene itself is hilarious but also wildly moving, finding the right amount of pure light in which to bath everyone who's there--I still think about the moment the two attendants share with each other after the paramedics have left, quietly sitting in that post-event joy and and enjoying it with each other for as long as they can. And speaking of things I still think about, the way Andrew Garfield breaks into tears the second the labor is over has snuck its way into my head at least once every week or two since I saw this.

(No trace of this scene whatsoever on youtube, sorry)

1. Match Point-Challengers

I know I said I avoid endings, and massive spoilers for Challengers here, but come on, how could I not? Simply one of the wildest and most invigorating endings that I've seen in some time, a headlong rush of color and sound that makes you want to cheer and throw up at the same time, all driven at a breakneck pace by the sick dance beats/gnashings of horrible little electronic elves that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross can cook up for us. Like I said earlier: I was afraid to blink the whole time.

(massive spoilers for Challengers, again: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnvfSSu9UL4)

And finally, the worst movies of the year! While I don't want to dwell on negativity or end on a down note, there's some catharsis to be found in setting fire to the things that wasted your time and then walking away with a smile on your face. And I've brought the matches! Note that I generally avoid movies that are supposed to be awful (life is too short and I am too tired), so this can just as easily be seen as a list of most disappointing movies.

The Worst Movies of the Year

5. Saturday Night-on Letterboxd, I did a whole bit about how Lorne Michaels and Jason Reitman think their god and expect us to follow suit; here, I'll just say that this exhausting and self-satisfied bit of wankery is rightfully going to spend the rest of its existence in the $5 bargain bin at Wal Mart.

4. The Book of Clarence-This both had me rolling my eyes at its limp attempts at spirituality and unleashing my inner screaming Sunday school six year old ("That's what you got from the Mary Magdelene story? A chance for Jesus to show off his superpowers and call a woman a whore? He didn't even draw anything in the goddamn sand!"). Feels like Jeymes Samuel's audition for an X-men movie? Or at least for a music video staring the X-Men. That's the only plausible x-planation for that guy showing up to the crucifixion carrying the nails like goddamn Wolverine.

3. Here-eagle-eyed readers will remember the Robert Zemeckis fever dream I mentioned earlier, and oh look, "here" (be sure to know that I am winking directly at you right now) it is! It gets points for trying something genuinely unique and strange, and then promptly loses all of those points for an unending series of the most baffling choices imaginable executed at the level of high school theater.

2. Gladiator II-One of those semi-annual acclaimed movies that makes me hold my head in my hands and think wow, cinema really is a dying medium.

1. Madame Web-Walking into a theater at 10.40 on a Tuesday, saying "one for, uh, Madame Web, I guess," and having the cashier laugh at me is one of the more genuine human interactions I've had in a long time. Which is good, because it's the only thing keeping me from writing this whole experience off as a hallucination. It's almost hard to put something this guileless and terrible ahead of some of the other, weightier entries on this list, but all I have to do is think about how aggressively and obviously an artistically bankrupt cash grab this is, and it helps me sleep at night.

And that's it for today! Against tradition, I won't be back tomorrow with the next entry, but I will be back Thursday! I'm terribly sorry to make you wait an entire two days before I deliver my lukewarm thoughts on actors doing actor things, but such is the world we live in. In the meantime, what do you think? How many envelopes filled with angry bees are you sending me about the fact that I've got Wicked and Better Man in my top five but never once mentioned half of the other best picture nominees? Luckily, you'll have til Thursday to stew in your anger and realize that I'm right*.

*I am never right, but we have fun anyway

Oscar Predictions 2024: Who Wants to Watch Emilia Perez (maroon several polar bears)?

I do, but I can't stop laughing at this.

 

So things are, as it turns out, a bit of a mess.

I don't know if it's because it actually happens, or because I'm good at projecting my own thoughts and experiences onto the world around me, or if because my penchant for grandiose bullshittery leads me to broken clocks that are right at least once a year, but every year it seems like the narrative of the Oscars maps uncannily onto the narrative of the world writ large as well as (writ somewhat less large) onto my life. It's a bizarre balancing act of reading the tea leaves and quietly pushing the tea leaves into the pattern you want and then also sometimes there's a Godzilla nearby (not this year, necessarily, but we do have some horny bisexual tennis pros waiting in the wings, and that's not nothing).

So what is that narrative? Last year I (kind of justly) celebrated the return of capital-C Cinema after the pandemic, things returning to some kind of normal at the box office while the Academy broadened its reach for what it considered the 'best' of the year--even though the results of that broadened love limited the chances of movies not nominated for best picture to be nominated in other categories. And all of that was true and right at the time, but why don't we, uh, go ahead and look around and see how much we see that feels triumphant and right. (Did you see look around and see Colman Domingo winning an Oscar? I didn't.) This year--in every possible scale and sense--is a bit of a mess. Where last year we had ten consensus movies marching to the finale with one obvious winner joyously riding its atomic bomb right into the Oscar-clad ground. This year we have one of the stranger Oscar bunches in recent history, in that none of them seem plausible as nominees, much less winners. An explicit tragicomedy about a sex worker from a director who's always been shunned by the Academy? Yes! A nearly four hour long epic about architecture that goes places you definitely did not see coming, directed by someone who has never made a movie that grossed more than $1 million until now? Yes! A body horror Movie in which an industrial amount of fake blood is squirted out a disembodied limb like a firehose? Yes! That movie from France about Mexico that you probably only know because of the "penis to vaginaaaa" clip that went around twitter and tiktok, the one that everyone except awards voters seem to hate? Yes Yes Yes Yes! And that's not even mentioning Wicked, which, in the weirdest twist of the year, actually turned out good--and look at what we had to do to the timeline to create a reality in which that makes sense.

Point is, things are gonna be goofy, if nothing else. This will be a year where the peppy young Oscar scholars of the future will stare at the winners with a mixture of fear and awe (you know, kind of like how 2005 saw a four-way tie for most Oscar wins of the year between Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha, and King Kong, and then the other Oscars went to Rachel Weisz, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," and a Narnia movie). So everyone hold onto their respective butts (or the butts of a nearby loved one), because the next month and a half is gonna be silly.

Oscar nominations come out tomorrow morning, by which point I will be far, far away from here (wherein 'here' probably means 'any plane of reality in which Challengers gets the recognition it deserves,' unfortunately), and all of this will be meaningless, but that doesn't mean that I'm not gonna burn all of our time by writing a few thousands words about what might happen between now and then. Every year around Oscar nominations, my molecules slight vibrating at a slightly different frequency from the rest of the galaxy, and the ramifications of that are a) I have a wonderful time doing this, and b) that I predict a bunch of implausible surprises that certainly won't happen, but wouldn't it be fun if they did? So bear that in mind as you follow along--there are plenty of websites that are predicting for accuracy, but I tend to stray into predicting as a way of attempting to cosmos along its rightful path. (God, writing this to The Brutalist soundtrack is making the tone of this so weird.) And that cosmos ain't gonna right itself (clearly), so now I'm just gonna have to go predict an alternate timeline in which Kneecap gets to perform at the Oscars--and I couldn't be happier. So let's get to it!

(Note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood, so the first movie listed is most likely, the second is next most likely, etc.) 

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Sing Sing
Nosferatu
Alternate: A Real Pain

Screw it, I have a proud tradition of making nine level-headed predictions in this category and then opting for anarchy. It's ridiculous of me not to pick A Real Pain or Nickel Boys for that tenth spot, but Nosferatu peaked at the right time, it's done great with awards organizations, and was a big and unexpected box office success. Plus, it's looking to get four to six other nominations, and in this era of the Academy, it makes more sense to just shuffle it into best picture instead of assuming it can hit those numbers without a nomination here. Beyond that tenth spot, I'm confident on just about everything else, though Sing Sing has been looking weak recently. Look for the aforementioned Real Pain/Nickel Boys to sneak in if so, or possibly something wild like Challengers, September 5, or All We Imagine as Light. (I kept wanting to predict Juror No. 2 as the first one-nomination best picture nominee in decades but I just wasn't strong enough. Still, if that happens, let's all pretend that I did.)

Director
Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Sean Baker-Anora
Edward Berger-Conclave
Jacques Audiard-Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat-The Substance
Alternate: RaMell Ross-Nickel Boys

Looking to be a grim category for me with both Jacques Audiard sneaking in for his own brand of dull madness as well as my nemesis, Edward Berger (look, I like Conclave as much as the next person, but you need to do a lot more than one fun pope movie before crawling out of the hole that making All Quiet on the Western Front dug you). This feels like a category with exactly one line of wiggle room, which I'm granting Fargeat for her anything but dull madness in The Substance. I know picking Payal Kapadia/All We Imagine as Light is the hip choice, and there's an argument to be made for her taking the cool new international slot that's seemed all but guaranteed for the past few years, but I'd counterargue that Audiard and Fargeat are already camping on that spot. Look for James Mangold and Jon M. Chu if A Complete Unknown and Wicked do better than expected, but I'm not convinced. Also, am I an idiot for not mentioning Denis Villeneuve and Dune til the end? Probably.

Actress
Mikey Madison-Anora
Demi Moore-The Substance
Karla Sofia Gascon-Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo-Wicked
Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here
Alternate: Marianne Jean-Baptiste-Hard Truths

Sticking with the consensus here, even though I strongly considered something plausibly surprising (like Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl or Nicole Kidman in Babygirl) or implausibly surprising (like Lily-Rose Depp in Nosferatu). But I'm Still Here has been gaining steam, and it'd be unproductively silly to pretend like I can't see that for the sake of being able to say Academy Award Nominee Pamela Anderson for about 18 hours.

Actor
Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes-Conclave
Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Sebastian Stan-The Apprentice
Alternate: Daniel Craig-Queer

Look, this is probably the easiest category for us to get right--just swap Daniel Craig in there and you're golden. But I'm going for the riskier call that Queer is a little too gay and strange for the Academy, that Sebastian Stan's stellar year as a serious actor debutante will warrant some reward, and that Jeremy Strong's recent awards success for the same movie will have people considering Stan too. I'd love to see Hugh Grant get in here for Heretic--maybe more than I want to see any other acting nomination, just for the novelty alone--but I know a pipe dream that wants to invite me into its creepy religion basement when I see one.

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande-Wicked
Isabella Rossellini-Conclave
Jamie Lee Curtis-The Last Showgirl
Adriana Paz-Emilia Perez
Alternate: Danielle Deadwyler-The Piano Lesson

Doing something deeply stupid here. Everyone's talking about Emilia Perez getting dual supporting noms, and why not (other than the obvious)? But while everyone's looking at Selena Gomez, who's been taking heat for her performance, her Spanish, and the fact of her existence, I guess, I'm looking at Adriana Paz, who is wonderful and unsung. It probably won't happen, but it just might, so here we are. Hate leaving Deadwyler in sixth place for another year, but that's looking like her face. This is a weirdly volatile category, though--anyone beyond the first two slots is vulnerable. Look for Margaret Qualley/The Substance, Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown, and Felicity Jones/The Brutalist to make an appearance if their films surge, or Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor/Nickel Boys or Joan Chen/Didi for a surprise.

Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Guy Pearce-The Brutalist
Yura Borisov-Anora
Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Denzel Washington-Gladiator II
Alternate: Clarence Maclin-Sing Sing

Once again, a category with exactly one spot open and an absolute mud-wrestle to fill it. While I had sweet and calming dreams about Ridley Scott weeping on Oscar morning, throwing his little toys into the toilet while lamenting Gladiator II's complete and glorious Oscar snub, I can't deny that Denzel is one of the biggest living awards magnets; I think he resurrects his early season momentum and slides in. Maclin would be great to see, and could happen, but it's up in the air. Look for Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice as a likely challenger (is it dumb that I'm predicting Sebastian Stan getting in without Jeremy Strong? Probably). And not that I'm saying this *should* happen, but wouldn't it be a nice little treat for all of us if the Academy saw fit to honor Jonathan Bailey for being everyone's hot little dancing friend in Wicked?

Original Screenplay
Anora
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
The Substance
Civil War
Alternate: Challengers

Look, I have been sitting on a shocking Saturday Night screenplay nomination for months now, and it doesn't please me to lose my nerve any more than the prospect of watching Civil War pleases me. But I've decided to let go of one patented silly prediction in favor of another one. And realistically, no one knows who's going to get that fourth slot. Is it Challengers? Fun, but unlikely. Is it Hard Truths? Tiny, and not particularly well loved. All We Imagine as Light or The Seed of the Sacred Fig? Why haven't they been a bigger presence on the awards circuit thus far? September 5? I'm not even sure this movie exists--I've never seen anything about it in the real world apart from on Oscar blogs. Everyone's going to be throwing a dart in this category, and I'm throwing mine, with force and gusto, at Alex Garland.

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Sing Sing
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Alternate: Nosferatu

Feels like one of the most ironclad categories--does anything have the juice to break in here? Wicked or Dune or I'm Still Here if they're strong enough, but I'm not convinced they are. This feels like the final five; now watch me assert this with confidence and get it entirely wrong tomorrow.

Production Design
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Conclave
Alternate: A Complete Unknown

Kills me not to have A Complete Unknown in here, which feels like an obvious choice that we'll all be kicking ourselves about tomorrow, but I just couldn't make sense out of demoting any of the other five. Feels like another fairly congealed category? Gladiator, The Substance, or maybe something out of left field like Blitz or Furiosa as surprises, but the top five feels like the right five.

Costume Design
Wicked
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
The Substance
The Book of Clarence
Alternate: Conclave

Feels ridiculous not to have Gladiator II and Conclave in here, both almost certainly destined for a nomination, but sometimes I just want to kick a jar of gumballs onto a roller skating rink and enjoy a little anarchy. The Substance feels like the kind of sneaky-obvious pick for this category that everyone pretends they saw coming after the fact (the yellow jacket! that cinderella gown!), and The Book of Clarence is a dumb hunch that I've had ever since seeing the trailer a year ago, and I, like all fans of 1996's biggest animated hit, love my dumb hunches. 

Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Better Man
Alien: Romulus
Alternate: Gladiator II

And while we're on the subject of following your silly gut feelings until they lead you into a dark well within which a wise goblin sage who refuses to tell you anything lives, why not add Alien here? It's had a stronger precursor showing in multiple categories than expected. I know that I shouldn't be blanking Gladiator in (almost) every category, but the thing about that is that I want to, and none of Ridley Scott's hired goons will arrive here to break my fingers before morning, and by then it'll be too late.

Makeup
Wicked
Nosferatu
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Alternate: Emilia Perez

Toyed with the idea of a surprise snub for both Dune and The Substance, but couldn't write myself a compelling enough argument for any of the other potential nominees. This category feels like a significant bellwether for Emilia Perez fans (or haters)--getting in here probably means that it's going to have a huge morning. I'd love to see the Sebastian Stan double feature The Apprentice and A Different Man get in--partly because they're worthy, but maybe more so because then the Oscar telecast would very briefly become a masterclass on gluing things to Sebastian Stan's face.

Film Editing
Dune: Part Two
Anora
Conclave
The Brutalist
Challengers
Alternate: Emilia Perez

Sticking my lonely flag into the tennis court to stand up for Challengers. Probably silly to think it makes it into this category that has been so dominated by best picture nominees (and winners) in recent years, but if Josh O'Connor can work up the courage to slap Mike Faist's turgid wiener, then so can I (metaphorically speaking). Otherwise, treat this category like you'd treat best picture: pick Perez, Wicked, The Substance, or A Complete Unknown if you're expecting them to surge.

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
Conclave
The Girl with the Needle
Alternate: Nickel Boys

Feels wrong not to have Nickel Boys--or A Complete Unknown, but for very different reasons--but when has this category ever been able to turn down a black and white movie? Hence Girl with the Needle sneaking into my predictions and then lying there like an ungainly doorstop, grumpily barring other, larger contenders from entering. I know I just said that Makeup would be a big category for Emilia Perez, but if it gets into this one (heaven forbid), then it could honestly break the record for the most nominations of all time. God, just wash that sentence around in your mouth a bit and try to swallow it. 

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
The Wild Robot
Challengers
Alternate: Nosferatu

Every time I type 'Emilia Perez,' twelve weeping polar bears get set adrift in a dark and uncaring sea, never to return to land. And I am far from done typing that, so those polar bears are gonna have to buckle up. This category feels simultaneously totally set and strangely volatile. It's hard to imagine any of the top five missing, but then again, it's hard to imagine Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door and Wicked missing, so there you go. I'll either go 5/5 in this category or 2/5--madness!

Sound
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
Gladiator II
Emilia Perez
Alternate: Blitz

And there go another twelve polar bears! Atypical to have such a musical-heavy category (three out of five of the movies are musicals or music-related), even in a category that's notoriously fond of a tune or two. I was tempted to toss Alien: Romulus in here as well, just to try and curry favor with my local xenomorph (or maybe to see if I could get that xenomorph to eat a few of the other nominees), but decided against it (bribing a xenomorph is wrong). I swear, if the Academy goes and nominates the Joker sequel in this category I am going to march right to Hollywood and start throwing bricks through every window I see.

Original Song
"El Mal"-Emilia Perez
"The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
"Mi Camino"-Emilia Perez
"Never Too Late"-Elton John: Never Too Late
"Sick in the Head"-Kneecap
Alternate: "Kiss the Sky"-The Wild Robot

That's right, I am eschewing the frontrunner hits from The Wild Robot, Challengers, Will and Harper, and Piece by Piece in favor of a song by that band that is perhaps most famous for doing a shit-ton of cocaine on stage. Everyone wins! God, I want a Kneecap performance at the Oscars so bad. I will make a dark deal with whatever eldritch entity Diane Warren has shackled, I will give that entity whatever it takes to get Kneecap throwing drugs out into the audience onto a deeply confused (but grateful) John Williams. Please universe/Diane Warren's shadow demon, please make this happen. And speaking of Diane Warren's unholy union with the darkness, everything looks good for her song, "The Journey"--the blood pact will be renewed, the old flesh shall die, long live the new flesh, tremble before the creeping darkness! Seriously though, who will stop Diane Warren.
(I realize that, without context, this paragraph is deeply unhinged. But I assure that, with context, it is somber and horrifying.)

Animated Film
The Wild Robot
Flow
Inside Out 2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Memoir of a Snail
Alternate: Moana 2

Very little intrigue here--these five nominees have been up for almost every prize in sight for the last three months, with nary a stray vote to any other movie to spoil their fun. Moana 2's the likeliest spoiler, but no one particularly liked Moana 2 (except for millions upon millions of ticket buyers).

International Film
Emilia Perez-France
I'm Still Here-Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig-Germany
Kneecap-Ireland
Flow-Latvia
Alternate-The Girl with the Needle-Denmark

Thankfully, this is Emilia Perez's last probably nomination (he says, gazing toward the horizon at hundreds of weeping polar bears, marooned to a dismal fate on the high seas). The top three are locked in, and the final two are up to a cage match between the movies listed above and Italy's Vermiglio. That said, this category throws frequent curveballs: should I be on the lookout for Palestine's From Ground Zero? Canada's Universal Language? Thailand's How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies? I'd expect a surprise somewhere.

Documentary Feature
No Other Land
Sugarcane
Daughters
Black Box Diaries
Porcelain War
Alternate: Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Year in and year out, this is the category I know the least about/struggle to care about the most. One of these years I'm gonna rectify that, but it certainly hasn't been this one, so behold! The darts I have thrown. Going with the traditional snub of the mainstream crowd-pleasing frontrunner (Will and Harper), but I do wonder if we shouldn't all be predicting a No Other Land snub as well. The movie's been controversial (due to, uh, being filmed in Palestine and all that that currently entails), and I could see politics keeping it out of the lineup, unfortunately. 

And there you have it! For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:

Emilia Perez-11
The Brutalist-9
Conclave-9
Dune: Part Two-8
Wicked-8

I have to admit that I don't feel exceptionally confident about a lot of these, but like I said at the beginning: it's a wacky year, so why not lean into the wackiness?

I know it's silly to spend this much time talking about potential Oscar nominations without talking about any of my own picks--and trust me, those are definitely the freight train at the end of the tunnel whose light you're seeing. I'm aiming for some time in mid-February, depending on what movies I can see/what happens in my life/whether or not I can fight off Ridley Scott's finger-breaking goons. But for now, I'll say that if I could guarantee any nominations, it would be for Challengers pretty much anywhere (but particularly in screenplay and score), though I would reeeeeaaally like to see a Hugh Grant/Heretic nomination. If I could prevent any nomination--well, I don't think it will come as a surprise to anyone that I do not count myself among Emilia Perez's biggest fans, so we'll skip those and say that Jamie Lee Curtis's upcoming Supporting Actress nomination is one that totally mystifies me, even as a lifelong fan.

And that's it! By this time tomorrow, all of these predictions will be meaningless, which is just the way I like it. I'm actually going to be away from my computer til Monday or Tuesday, so I won't be back tomorrow with my reactions (the shock! the horror! the madness!), but rest assured that I will return some time next week to unleash my particular flavor of Oscar silliness on the world.

Final Oscar Predictions 2023: Now I Am Become Death, the Destroyer of Little Gold Men

 Well, I'm afraid the inevitable is going to keep occurring, wherein 'the inevitable' is one of at least three things: a) my schedule and general procrastination means that I'm going to rush through another movie post this year, b) Oppenheimer is going to cruise to a truly unholy number of Oscar wins, and/or c) the sun is going to explode (but hopefully not before we find out if Godzilla is going to win an Oscar tonight). And I can speak with some confidence in saying that yes, this post will be rushed, yes, Oppenheimer will win enough Oscars to either stop or start another World War, and yes, the sun will explode (but not for a few minutes, at least). Beyond those three things? It's anybody's game (though what kind of game you want to play that doesn't involve my blogging, prestigious Oscar movies, or the sun, I'll never know). 

Eagle-eyed readers (or actual eagles of any nature) might have noticed that I posted on Thursday saying that I'd be traveling and as such needed to finish all posts before the end of the day. Even sharper readers might notice that today is Sunday and here I am; I'll leave you to deduce how meeting the Thursday deadline went. As such, I'll just launch into things--the Oscars, after all, are only about six hours away (don't forget, they're starting at 5 pm Mountain for the first time ever, assumably because the network is punishing them for their sins). Which means that this post has about six hours of already dubious relevance--is there anything worse than reading Oscar predictions after the ceremony? 

But regardless of how things go, and how rushed they have to be, I'm still pleased as punch to be ranting about them. The Oscars have played a constant role in my life from 1997 on, and predicting from 2003, and they are, ridiculously, they schedule by which I set my year. Like it or not (and, given the word count, I obviously like it), they're a big part of how I keep track of a year, or the passage of time, or my own silly life. And I appreciate that you're part of it, just by being here to read this! (Go ahead and say a grateful prayer that you're not in my family, who is treated annually to a semi-mandatory barrage of movie marathons, production bonanzas, and self-catered watch parties.)

While I might not be Oppenheimer's biggest fan (though I do like it), I have to be thankful for it in at least this one instance: the fact that it is going to charge like a bull through my emotional china shop, killing every little gold man it finds, will make today's post much easier to write quickly. But outside of Oppenheimer's vast swath of predicted terror, there's still some wacky intrigue to be found on the margins. And who doesn't leave giddy intrigue? I will happily guide you through the madness, or do my best approximation of guiding you whilst muttering something unspeakable about Ryan Gosling. I haven't seen nearly as many Oscar nominees as I might have seen (I'm ashamed to admit I haven't seen literally any of the documentary nominees), but what I lack in firsthand knowledge, I make up for in whimsy and good intentions.

So let's get to it! Do note that I can lean more toward fun than accuracy at the Oscars (though I might have shied away from that a little more this year). There are lots of websites that can help you ace your Oscar pool, but I'll always use this space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds.

Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

Well, whatever wacky intrigue was promised certainly won't begin here. Anything but Oppenheimer winning would constitute one of the bigger and more surprising upsets in the last 50 years of Oscar history. It's got the momentum, it's got the timely appeal, it's got the apparent and inscrutable love for Christopher Nolan that I will never understand. I suppose you could look to The Holdovers or Killers of the Flower Moon (or even Anatomy of a Fall?) for a shocker, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: The Holdovers
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: May December

Director
Jonathan Glazer-The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things
Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall

Everything that I said above is multiplied x10 here. There's no way that any late-breaking Anatomy of a Fall momentum or 'let's honor Scorsese again' sentiment derails Christopher Nolan's coronation, so I hope he's brought his tiara.

Will Win: Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Could Win: Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson-Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Actress
Annette Bening-Nyad
Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan-Maestro
Emma Stone-Poor Things

Some actual-ass intrigue in this category (which, you will find mostly only happens in categories where Oppenheimer isn't present), with Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone fighting it out to the bitter end. Stone has all the early momentum, but Gladstone recently won the Screen Actors Guild award, a possible sign that the moment has shifted. There also appears more of a desire to award Gladstone: the narrative of a hardworking character actor giving a revelatory performance--for people who hadn't already seen her other work--and being the first indigenous person to win an acting Oscar seeming like a better outcome than Emma Stone, beloved as she is, getting her second Oscar before she hits 40. It'll be a nailbiter down to the moment the envelope is opened, but I can't help but wonder if Killers of the Flower Moon's underperformance on the awards circuit and at the Oscar nominations will be enough to tank Gladstone's chances in the face of Poor Things's clear popularity. And, if you want to jump for something totally off the wall, you could predict that Anatomy of a Fall's momentum surge and Stone and Gladstone's tight race is enough to bring Sandra Hüller in under the radar. It's a wild thought, but wilder things have certainly happened.

Will Win: Emma Stone-Poor Things
Could Win: Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: Greta Lee-Past Lives

Actor
Bradley Cooper-Maestro
Colman Domingo-Rustin
Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction

A similar race to best actress, but a slightly less contested one. Like Emma Stone, Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers consumed most of the early season air in this category, and like Lily Gladstone, Cillian Murphy won the SAG award recently, suggesting a changing of the winds. But where those two women are still neck and neck, Murphy gains the obvious advantage here for playing the titular character in a movie that could tie--or even break--the record for the most Oscars ever won by a movie. This isn't finished yet, and it wouldn't be totally shocking to see Giamatti pull out a win, but the atomic bomb is definitely in Cillian Murphy's court.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
Could Win: Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
Should Win: Colman Domingo-Rustin
Should Have Been Here: Andrew Scott-All of Us Strangers

Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
America Ferrera-Barbie
Jodie Foster-Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers

Probably the easiest call of the night, give or take international film. Randolph hasn't lost any film award in this category (outside of a couple smaller regional critics groups back in December), and certainly isn't looking to lose this one. If Emily Blunt wins here, then expect Oppenheimer to go for an unprecedented 13-for-13 streak.

Will Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Could Win: Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
Should Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Should Have Been Here: Julianne Moore-May December

Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown-American Fiction
Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things

Another easy call: Robert Downey Jr. continues his baffling (to me) march to the stage of the Dolby theater. I'm sure I won't be the only ones crossing my fingers and sending some positive Kenergy in hopes of a different outcome, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
Could Win: Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Should Win: Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Should Have Been Here: Charles Melton-May December

Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Another actual-ass race! In this category, you can pit the late-season ascendancy of Anatomy of a Fall against the early season comforts of The Holdovers. They're both in approximately the same place, as far as best picture momentum is concerned, and they're both about equally well loved. The Holdovers gains an advantage by virtue of the fact that it's in English, where Anatomy isn't (non-English language films have won for writing before, but it doesn't happen frequently), and Anatomy gains advantage by seeming to be the more complex of the two (...which should sound like a compliment). Another category where it'll be down to the wire. Can Past Lives capitalize on its rival's competition? Possibly, but also no.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could Win: The Holdovers
Should Win: May December
Should Have Been Here: Asteroid City

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

One of the toughest categories to predict! (Almost) anyone could win! Huzzah! Now, I know what I think you're thinking: if Oppenheimer is some Oscars juggernaut, how could this category be tough to predict? And you're not wrong--the easy answer is to assume that Oppenheimer commits a whole bunch of awards murder here just like it will in many other categories. That said, if you're looking to stir up a little trouble, Oppenheimer's writing is far from its most celebrated aspect (there was a question of whether it would even get a nomination here), and the category seems primed for the anti-Oppenheimer voters to find their voice. But to whose benefit? American Fiction feels like the (other) easy answer: it's a snappy and (kind of) contemporary satire that stakes its reputation on being quippy, clever, and directly engaging with the concept of language, aka the kind of movie they award here all the time. You could make similar claims about Poor Things--an expansive and well-loved adaptation with a very distinctive voice that focuses on concepts of language and communication. And finally, you have Barbie, a movie whose Oscar journey turned out rockier than expected. If voters are feeling penitent for having snubbed Gerwig in director, one easy way to show that contrition would be to give her an Oscar in screenplay. Plus, it's a strange, funny, and surprising movie that is clearly well-loved by the world, and its champions might carry the day for it here. Additionally, it's been classified as an original screenplay by all the other awards bodies, so we don't really have any data about how it will compete against these movies, since they've generally not been in the same category together. Still, if the Academy were desperate to reward Barbie, they would have started by, y'know, rewarding Barbie with nominations.
So there it is: pick Oppenheimer as the easy answer, or pick one of the other choices if you feel like a little chaos.

Will Win: Barbie (the heart wants what it wants, even when it's not likely)
Could Win: American Fiction
Should Win: Barbie
Should Have Been Here: Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Casual deathmatch here between Poor Things and Barbie. Which film's popularity brings it the win? Which film's wacky visuals feel more compelling to voters? Will Oppenheimer say 'I don't care, look, I made a town in New Mexico for your enjoyment,' pushing the ladies on the way to the podium? I honestly couldn't tell you. This category's a guess, and yours is as good as mine.

Will Win: Barbie
Could Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Barbie
Should Have Been Here: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Exact same arguments as the previous category, except with a little more general hand-waving. But where Oppenheimer has a valid chance in the previous category, you should only expect it to win here if it's going to tie or break the record number of Oscars won.

Will Win: Poor Things
Could Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
Should Have Been Here: Saltburn

Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning: Part One
Napoleon

Anarchy! Pure Anarchy! Go burn an effigy on your lawn and hope for the best! Which is to say that Oppenheimer's absence has created a vacuum in which any one of these nominees could win, though it's a likelier path for some than for others. Your smartest bests are Godzilla and The Creator, each of which are peddling a similar narrative of a spunky visual effects department with small budget turning out stellar work in a way that didn't punish the artists like other, large (Disney-er) movies might. (Granted, Godzilla's budget was about $55 million smaller than The Creator's, but they're also very different movies.) The Creator is hindered by the fact that not many people saw it, and even fewer people liked it, but it does look gorgeous in a way that wins awards. Godzilla has to contend with the fact that no non-English language film has ever won this category, and that some voters will surely feel voting for a Godzilla movie in any category. That said, it is, weirdly, the most prestigious movie up for the award, which definitely helps.
Five years ago, I'd have said that this was the perfect opportunity to reward Marvel with their first Visual Effects Oscar, but a lot has changed in the last five years, most pertinently how no one seems that excited about Marvel. So Guardians is a threat, by maybe a minor one. I've read that people's love for the Mission: Impossible franchise will swell and guide it to the win, but I can't help but think that if such a swell existed among Oscar voters, they might have given the franchise a nomination before this, its seventh movie. And Napoleon is also here. Good for you, Napoleon! You go, Napoleon. Someone get a time machine real quick and go explain to actual Napoleon what Oscars are and why he won't win any.

Will Win: Godzilla Minus One
Could Win: The Creator
Should Win: Godzilla Minus One
Should Have Been Here: Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Somehow, despite the constant Discourse, Maestro is still a threat to win this--let's chalk it up to the power of Kazu Hiro, one of the Academy's new and very favorite makeup artists. That said, the tides seem to be changing, and we might expect Emma Stone to surf into town on a board made of her own hair, winking at a clapping Bradley Cooper as Poor Things sneaks in for the win. At any rate, this award has paired not infrequently in the recent past with a lead acting award, so if you're predicting Emma Stone to win actress (like I am), then it seems silly not to expect a win here as well. Of course, you could just as easily use that argument to suggest that Oppenheimer pairs its best actor win with a makeup win, and you're not wrong.

Will Win: Poor Things
Could Win: Maestro
Should Win: Society of the Snow*
Should Have Been Here: Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

*I haven't seen Golda

Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Thing

Fair warning: we're now entering a whole stretch of categories that Oppenheimer will almost definitely win, and the only thing to do is call out what wild upset would happen if tonight got wild and upsetting. In this case, it's probably nothing. If Oppenheimer loses here, expect it to lose pretty much everywhere (...a phrase which in Oppenheimer's case means 'only win 3-5 Oscars instead of 9-12). Anatomy of a Fall would probably the one to push it off its throne here, but don't count on it.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: Priscilla

Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Another Oppenheimer category, and one as equally unlikely for it to lose. Poor Things or Killers as upsets? Maybe, but it's just as likely that a piece of Skynet falls down onto your summer camp.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon*
Should Have Been Here: Saltburn

*I haven't seen El Conde

Original Score
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Another Oppenheimer category, this one slightly more likely to upset. While I absolutely don't think it'll happen, it's possible that the Academy will want to reward Robbie Robertson, the composer of Killers of the Flower Moon who passed away shortly after the film was released. It's a possible narrative, and a stronger one than 'Poor Things likes fisheye lenses and so do I.' That said, the Academy might have shown just how much it thinks about posthumously honoring people film fans think they should honor with the 2020 Chadwick Boseman kerfuffle.

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Should Have Been Here: Society of the Snow

Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning: Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Another Oppenheimer category, this one with the most compelling anti-Oppenheimer argument of all! It would be devastatingly silly to bet against Oppenheimer here, but The Zone of Interest is a well respected and admired movie whose sound design is arguably its most talked about and admired element. It would be a highly atypical choice, but plenty of braver people than I am predicting it. I'm gonna end up not predicting it, but part of me wishes I would

Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Have Been Here: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Original Song
"The Fire Inside"-Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken"-Barbie
"It Never Went Away"-American Symphony
"What Was I Made For"-Barbie
"Whazhazhe"-Killers of the Flower Moon

Probably the only place where Barbie is more or less guaranteed an Oscar win? "What Was I Made For" probably has the edge here, spurred on by Billie Eilish's popularity (...also I kind of wonder if this will be the Academy's reaction to all the Barbie nomination backlash? Like, not to do anything about it but make sure that the song about Barbie wins instead of the song about Ken). Still, there is one bonkers but surprisingly plausible alternative. "It Never Went Away" and "The Fire Inside" are totally inconceivable as winners, which means that all non-Barbie voters might be voting for "Whazhazhe." That song has the additional perk of the 'honor the late Robbie Robertson' sentiment that might appear in original score. Granted, Robertson had nothing to do with the song and wouldn't receive an Oscar for it, but I do wonder whether the average voter will interrogate that. Anyway, this is the big upset that I'm not brave enough to predict but do think could happen. Then again, will the Academy send Barbie home Oscar-less? Probably not.

Will Win: "What Was I Made For"-Barbie
Could Win: "I'm Just Ken"-Barbie
Should Win: "What Was I Made For"-Barbie*
Should Have Been Here: "Camp Isn't Home"-Theater Camp

*I haven't seen The Fire Inside or American Symphony, but like

Animated Film
The Boy and the Heron
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams

I'm probably making this one more complicated than it needs to be--Spider-Man was a huge box office success, loved by critics, and part of one of the most popular mini-franchises going right now. So why does it feel like it's going to lose? Its reception didn't help--a very warm one, obviously, but one that got a little colder as the year progressed. If the Oscars had happened last June, Spider-Verse would have been up for picture, screenplay, and a handful of craft categories, but as the year progressed and people thought more about it, each of those possibilities fell away until only animated film was left, and even that looks tenuous. That said, is The Boy and the Heron, its direct competition, any less tenuous? Sure, it's Miyazaki's biggest hit ever in the US, it's well-reviewed, and he's all set to retire, which makes this the perfect time to give him one last Oscar. That said, when is Miyazaki not well reviewed? When is he not set to retire? The Academy has never seemed in that big a hurry to reward him (Spirited Away notwithstanding), and what would set them on that path for this, one of his stranger and more inscrutable movies? It's a toss-up. Both Spider-Verse and Boy and the Heron feel primed to fail, but none of the movies below them seem like they've even got a shot, so who's to say?

Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Could Win: The Boy and the Heron
Should Win: The Boy and the Heron*
Should Have Been Here: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

*I haven't seen Robot Dreams

International Film
Io Capitano-Italy
Perfect Days-Japan
The Teacher's Lounge-Germany
Society of the Snow-Spain
The Zone of Interest-The UK

Easiest call of the night. No movie nominated in both this category and best picture has ever lost, and The Zone of Interest has actual heat in other categories as well.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest-The UK
Could Win: Society of the Snow-Spain
Should Win: Abstain (I've only see The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow)

Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger

Year in and year out, this is the category I know the most about (and, unfortunately, struggle the most to care about). This year presents a real-ass apotheosis (and/or nadir) of my own apathy, as I haven't seen any of these nominees and feel particularly poorly qualified to work on them. Such as it is, 20 Days seems like the faraway frontrunner. I've heard whispers about Four Daughters but I kind of wonder if To Kill a Tiger would take that spot instead? Still, I'm not gonna pretend to be well-informed, so thank goodness there's an easy frontrunner for me to point at like I'm a pod person discovering someone.

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Could Win: Four Daughters
Should Win: abstain

And that's that! Currently, I've got Oppenheimer as the biggest winner with a paltry 8 wins--bizarre how that both feels like I'm under-predicting but would also make Oppenheimer one of the 20 most Oscar-winning films of all time. I don't think it'll break the all-time record, but 9 or 10 seems doable, which would certainly be close enough. 
Well, whatever happens, I'll still be here next year, glancing morosely at all the toys that the Academy didn't want to play with, and throwing some patented stink-eye at the ones that they did.