Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Summing it Up.

All right, last time before the big day. Nominations are revealed in roughly seventeen hours, which means that, in seventeen hours, all of this guesswork will be completely worthless. Still, it's fun, so we keep doing it. Anyway, I'm just going to post my final predictions, in order of likelihood, for each category, sans commentary. And I'm only allowing myself one alternate. Incidentally, I know it's silly of me to do all these Oscar prediction posts without actually weighing in on what deserves to be nominated, but, living in the Southwest, I just don't have access to all the films I need to see in time to put together a fair 'Best of 2010' list before Oscar nominations. That post will be coming soon-ish, however. Maybe mid-February. I will allow myself this however: If I could automatically guarantee one nomination, it would be TRON for best original score, and if I could automatically guarantee someone not getting a nomination, it would be Hailee Steinfeld missing for True Grit.

Note: I changed two predictions since I posted them. First, I the alternate for best original song is different, and the number one and number two spots in best documentary feature switched with each other.

Best Picture
The Social Network
The King's Speech
The Fighter
Toy Story 3
Black Swan
Inception
True Grit
The Kids Are All Right
Winter's Bone
127 Hours
Alternate: The Town

Best Director
David Fincher-The Social Network
Tom Hooper-The King's Speech
Darren Aronofksy-Black Swan
Christopher Nolan-Inception
David O. Russell-The Fighter
Alternate: Joel and Ethan Coen-True Grit

Best Actor
Colin Firth-The King's Speech
James Franco-127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg-The Social Network
Jeff Bridges-True Grit
Robert Duvall-Get Low
Alternate: Javier Bardem-Biutiful

Best Actress
Natalie Portman-Black Swan
Annette Bening-The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence-Winter's Bone
Nicole Kidman-Rabbit Hole
Julianne Moore-The Kids Are All Right
Alternate: Lesley Manville-Another Year

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale-The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush-The King's Speech
Jeremy Renner-The Town
Mark Ruffalo-The Kids Are All Right
Andrew Garfield-The Social Network
Alternate: John Hawkes-Winter's Bone

Best Supporting Actress
Melissa Leo-The Fighter
Amy Adams-The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter-The King's Speech
Jacki Weaver-Animal Kingdom
Mila Kunis-Black Swan
Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld-True Grit

Original Screenplay
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
Black Swan
The Fighter
Alternate: Another Year

Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
The Ghost Writer
Alternate: 127 Hours

Art Direction
The King's Speech
Inception
True Grit
Alice in Wonderland
Shutter Island
Alternate: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
The King's Speech
Burlesque
The Tempest
True Grit
Alternate: Black Swan

Visual Effects
Inception
TRON Legacy
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Iron Man 2
Alternate: Hereafter

Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
The Wolfman
Barney's Version
Alternate: Jonah Hex

Film Editing
The Social Network
Inception
The Fighter
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Alternate: 127 Hours

Cinematography
True Grit
Inception
Black Swan
Shutter Island
The King's Speech
Alternate: The Social Network

Original Score
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
How to Train Your Dragon
The Ghost Writer
Alternate: 127 Hours

Sound Mixing
Inception
True Grit
Black Swan
TRON Legacy
How to Train Your Dragon
Alternate: Salt

Sound Effects Editing
Inception
TRON Legacy
How to Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3
127 Hours
Alternate: Salt

Original Song
"I See the Light"-Tangled
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"-Burlesque
"Shine"-Waiting For Superman
"We Belong Together"-Toy Story 3
"If I Rise"-127 Hours
Alternate: "Chanson Illusioniste"-The Illusionist

Animated Film
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Alternate: The Illusionist

Foreign Language Film
In a Better World-Denmark
Incendies-Canada
Life, Above All-South Africa
Biutiful-Mexico
Dogtooth-Greece
Alternate: Simple Simon-Sweden

Documentary Feature
Waiting For Superman
Inside Job
Gasland
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Restrepo
Alternate: Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer


There we have it. I'll be back tomorrow morning with the official nominee list, as well as my reactions.