Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Carol
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
Alternates: Mad Max: Fury Road, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This is a toughie. Really I'm only confident about Spies--Danish Girl and Carol *should* be safe, but who can tell? Cinderella is probably a silly call, but Dante Ferretti is an oft-nominated legend, and the film is lavish and lovely. Crimson Peak is definitely a silly call, but I'm hoping the branch can look past its genre trappings (and the fact that's it's not necessarily a stellar film, but hey neither is The Danish Girl) to see that the design is off-the-wall bonkers. I'm probably stupid for not including either of my alternates, but that's the way it goes. Look for The Martian or maybe The Hateful Eight if the branch is into surprises.
Costume Design
The Danish Girl
Cinderella
Carol
Brooklyn
Trumbo
Alternates: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Hateful Eight
Danish Girl is fancy enough to win. Cinderella and Carol are both gorgeous and by Sandy Powell, who is a bit of an awards magnet. Brooklyn's costumes are wonderful and a relatively major plot point, so they should make it. And I'm going out on a limb with Trumbo--it's clear the film has lots of support for some horrifying reason, so it's got to pop up somewhere. As we'll find is the case in almost all the categories today, Mad Max is a definite threat, depending on how well they respond to it. If they feel like nominating a menagerie of dead animals, they might spring for The Hateful Eight or The Revenant. And I'd love to see Crimson Peak or Far from the Madding Crowd pop up, but I'm not holding my breath.
Visual Effects
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Jurassic World
The Revenant
Alternates: Avengers: Age of Ultron, Ant-Man
Boy, that last spot is a doozy. The other four feel pretty safe, but I'm nowhere near confident with The Revenant. Either (or both?) Marvel film could get in, as could Ex Machina, although it's a low-budget film with relatively subtle effects, which certainly doesn't help it in a category where most generally equals best. Incidentally, the Academy has already narrowed his category down to a shortlist of ten contenders, the two of which I've yet to mention being The Walk and Tomorrowland. The Walk maybe still has a shot; Tomorrowland doesn't.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed out the Window and Disappeared
Alternates: Mr. Holmes, Black Mass
Another category for which the Academy has already released a shortlist--the other films possible are Concussion and Legend, and there's no way either of those get in. Mad Max and The Revenant should be golden, and I'm going out on a limb with The 100-Year-Old Man Who...., but when a movie as patently strange and unheard-of as this one makes the shortlist, generally it tends to be nominated. I might be taking a risk not predicting Black Mass, but I don't know that we need to give someone an Oscar for making Johnny Depp look like a lizard person left in the sun too long, right?
Film Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
The Revenant
Alternates: Sicario, Bridge of Spies
Feels like a tight five. You've got your prestige action movies (Max and Martian), your best picture frontrunners (Spotlight and Big Short), and your prestige movie where people thought a CGI bear raped Leonardo Dicaprio (The Martian) (just kidding) (it was The Revenant) (people actually thought that happened) (the filmmakers released a statement) (google it). If Bridge of Spies comes on stronger than I thought, look for it here. Ditto Sicario. Ditto ditto Star Wars, which *might* make it in regardless.
Cinematography
The Revenant
Sicario
Mad Max: Fury Road
Carol
Son of Saul
Alternates: Bridge of Spies, The Martian
This category seemed to easy, so I made a silly guess. Really, it's almost undoubtedly going to be the top four plus Bridge of Spies, but that felt boring to me (even though 4 of that 5 would be totally worthy nominees), so I tossed a depressing Hungarian movie in there to keep things interesting. The Martian could make a play, as could Hateful Eight, but I'm not sold on either possibility.
Original Score
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Hateful Eight
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Sicario
Alternates: Spotlight, Steve Jobs
I really ought to be predicting Spotlight, but I don't want to, so there. Johny Williams gets nominated for almost literally everything, so of course he's in. Ennio Morricone returns to westerns after 40 years, so Hateful Eight is in (and will probably win). Thomas Newman tends to innocently show up to the Oscars anyway, so they've just started nominating him to avoid awkward questions, which means Bridge of Spies is in. I'd love to think that Carter Burwell will finally get a nomination, which is why I've got Carol in there. And Sicario is probably best of the year, so it *should* be there--but because I think it's best it probably won't be. Seriously, the Academy and I never get along here. Look for Inside Out or The Danish Girl for outside contenders.
Sound Mixing
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Straight Outta Compton
Alternates: Sicario, Bridge of Spies
Long story short: top four golden basically invincible in this category. Here's my guess for where they nominate Straight Outta Compton to prove they're hip. Both Sicario and Bridge of Spies could score, depending on how well they do elsewhere. Hateful Eight and Spectre might sneak in, but I doubt it.
Sound Editing
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
Alternates: The Hateful Eight, In the Heart of the Sea
Copy/past the arguments for sound mixing, minus the hip part, and here we are. Look for In the Heart of the Sea for their annual bad/movie/fun sound editing nomination, or for Pixar to show up here as it periodically does with Inside Out.
Original Song
"See You Again"-Furious 7
"Til It Happens to You"-The Hunting Ground
"Simple Song #3"-Youth
"Love Me Like You Do"-50 Shades of Grey
"I'll See You in My Dreams"-I'll See You in My Dreams
Alternates: "Writing's On the Wall"-Spectre, "Flashlight"-Pitch Perfect 2
AKA the category that might make me watch Furious 7 and 50 Shades of Grey, aka I have no idea what's happening here, aka come on you guys, seriously with this category. But people sure are broken up about Paul Walker, so the song for the film's in memoriam clip is in. The others are mostly guesses. No way I'll See You in My Dreams gets in here, but I want it to, so shut up. I should probably be predicting Spectre, but, ugh, just no. Can we all agree to stop pretending every Bond theme is now Oscar worthy, just because we all liked listening to Skyfall? That would be super.
That's that, as it were, wherein 'that' means 'my big oscar prediction lists,' and 'that' means 'are mostly done.' I'll be back early tomorrow morning to wrap things up with super serious final predictions, no take-backs, but for now it's mostly just waiting for Christmas morning on Thursday. Please to note that I'll be travelling and internet-less until Friday night, which means that my nominations announcement and commentary will be a day late. Tragic, but I'm sure we'll manage!
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