And somehow, improbably, inevitably, another year is gone already--which seems ridiculous, given that it's still late 2019, and also that time no longer means anything. Last year, writing Oscar predictions in (what was supposed to be) the tail-end of the pandemic felt like a reclamation. If spring 2020 felt like the end of the world, then spring 2021 surely felt like a resurgence. The world was still ending, sure, but we were all used to it, and it could only end for so long, right? Well, smash-cut to spring 2022 and those feelings were maybe premature. Things are different, things are the same, and every day to some extent can be contained inside an apparently infinite spring afternoon on March 8th (or April 31st, or Junifer Lawrence the 10th, or any other day that is just as real as an inane dystopian sci-fi date like February 7th, 2022).
Point is, time is silly, and all the things that were same are different, and all the things that were different have stayed the same. One of these constants, obviously, is the Oscars, which, like time and the slow decline of all things on this and any other earth, have been happening since 1927 and show no signs of pumping the brakes. And luckily for all of us, the universe's capacity for entropy is only slightly greater than my frenzied dedication to chronicling the Oscars in all their sordid glory. So now, like in any late winter/early spring for almost 100 years, a massive, golden-plated naked man stands over the year with a scythe (a dream scenario for any true movie fan, or fan of life, really), ready to separate the strong from the weak--or, because it's Oscar, the challenging, interesting, and fun movies from Being the Ricardos (and no points for guessing which gets all the Oscar nominations) (take me, hounds of hell).
Honestly though, the slate of probable nominations to be expected this year isn't too bad, with plenty of interesting, challenging, and fun movies vying for the top prizes, and only a handful of dubious picks getting in their way. Hell, a full half of my own top 10 should (hopefully) show up somewhere in the morning, with only one of my bottom five similarly positioned (proving that last year, in which none of my least favorite movies of the year threatened for best picture, was a delight but an anomaly). And this feat--a strong slate of best picture contenders--already something of a rarity in itself, is even more impressive, given this is the shortest Oscar year in history. After last year's eligibility period was extended until February 28th, 2021, this year's Oscars honor films from March 1st-December 31st, 2021, the only Oscar year on the books that is a 'year' in name only.
The shortened time span, however, shouldn't suggest that the race is more settled, or has fewer contenders, as so many of the categories this year threaten to be absolutely bananas. While the Academy might err toward the familiar and stick with a few already heavily lauded favorites, they might also take a cue from Roland Emmerich's picture book and drop an entire-ass Moon onto the world (which, uh, is one surefire way to shake up the Oscar race). Point is, things--unlike the moon--are still up in the air.
Until the moon does come to claim us all, however, I'll go ahead and dump all my predictions at once in one profoundly upsetting dogpile. Bear in mind that I try to predict for fun as much as for accuracy--there are plenty of places to go on the internet if you're looking for mathematical precision, but only so many if you're looking for maudlin intros and Moonfall jokes followed by slack-jawed silliness. And let me tell you, I am all out of math, but I've got plenty of Moonfall left, so strap in.
(note: all the predictions are ranked in order of likelihood--so the first movie listed is the most likely, the second the next most likely, and so on.)
Best Picture
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
West Side Story
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Dune
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
House of Gucci
Alternate: Being the Ricardos
This year will be the first year since 2010 that the Academy abandons its sliding scale method of nominations in this category, in which the number of nominees fluctuated between 5 and 10, based on the amount of voter passion (i.e. #1 votes) each film had. This year will have a guaranteed nominees, and it's tough to guess exactly how that'll effect proceedings. If there were a sliding number of nominees, then we could confidently predict that the top eight (Power of the Dog through Don't Look Up) would be the only eight moving forward. Given there are two more slots to fill, however, we get a Rollerball deathmatch for the final two slots between a solid half dozen movies, none of which feel entirely plausible. It's absolutely absurd of me to not predict Being the Ricardos, a film which has strong guild support and has Aaron Sorkin behind it--an Academy favorite. But I hate the film with a blinding passion, and this is my sandbox, so I get to un-manifest it's Oscar glory for as long as I can. The exact argument has be pushing Drive My Car, a film I deeply love, into the top 10, though its path to a nomination is certainly fraught. Lin-Manuel Miranda's Tick Tick Boom has a strong chance, based on its precursor award success, as does The Tragedy of Macbeth, which is a critically well-received Coen movie (though that's something I think other Oscar bloggers are leaning into a little too hard, given there are plenty of acclaimed Coen movies lying dead at Oscar's gates). And you can flip a coin whether residual love for Guillermo Del Toro or respect for debut director Maggie Gyllenhaal will get either Nightmare Alley or The Lost Daughter, respectively, into the top 10. So why, then, am I campy shitshow punchline House of Gucci to beat them all? Because it would be funny, honestly. But also because (some) people still respect Ridley Scott, and it seems silly to talk about Gucci for all the nominations I'm about to without believing that it can land here, and because it was more or less the only financially successful non-genre theatrical release aimed at adults this year. Come on, you know you want to watch half the internet's brains melt when this happens.
Director
Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh-Belfast
Steven Spielberg-West Side Story
Adam McKay-Don't Look Up
Alternate: Denis Villeneuve-Dune
It's probably extremely silly of me to predict a Villeneuve snub--the champion of the internet, the box office, and Arrakis--but none of those entities votes for Oscars (maybe Arrakis). But Campion is a lock, Licorice Pizza has had a huge surge, and people love the film, Belfast was the day-one frontrunner, and hasn't lost near as much steam as it ought to have. Spielberg could certainly be the surprise snub, West Side Story having performed much more poorly than expected in the precursor award circuit (and, to a lesser extent, at the box office). But I'm banking on respect for him and his style of filmmaking to carry the day. Which leaves McKay, a seemingly incomprehensible pick on my part. But hear me out: all of his 'serious' films have overperformed at the Oscars; remember Vice getting 8 Oscar noms? And Vice was much less respected or popular than Don't Look Up, which, somehow, captured some sliver of zeitgeist over the past couple months. And while Dune and Don't Look Up are very different iterations of sci-fi, I'm going out on a limb and guessing that they only have room for one, and they'll pick the guy they've showered with baffling attention before. Look for Ryuche Hamaguchi/Drive My Car or Joel Coen/The Tragedy of Macbeth to surprise if there's a snub and McKay doesn't take the spot, but those seem like the only plausible choices. Beyond that, throw a dart (which is basically what the Academy did last year with Thomas Vinterberg, so you never know).
Actress
Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga-House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart-Diana
Alana Haim-Licorice Pizza
Alternate: Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
A combative and disturbed category, in which the top two women are safe, and everyone else is potentially food for the lions. Diana's chances have been spiraling in every category, including and especially this one, with one-time frontrunner Stewart barely clinging on, but I'll vote with my heart and assume she gets in. It's trendy to have Cruz in the top 5, and I'd love to see it happen, but I think Licorice Pizza love brings Haim over the top (especially since there aren't too many places to plausibly honor that film). Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye would be a stereotypically on-point choice for the Academy, as would Jennifer Hudson in Respect, both playing real people in the Academy's favorite genre (the biopic). I'm dubious about Chastain's chances, but less so about Hudson--hearing her name on Oscar morning wouldn't be a surprise.
Actor
Will Smith-King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield-Tick Tick Boom
Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth
Leonardo Dicaprio-Don't Look Up
Alternate: Javier Bardem-Being the Ricardos
Reasonably confident about the first four slots, with the last being anyone's guess. Bardem has come perilously, unreasonably close to locking that spot up (anyone's guess why, I suppose), and it'd be smart to pick him, but I'll keep pushing the narrative that Don't Look Up's is being underestimated. If the Academy feels like they want to sit at the cool kids' table, they might spring for Nicholas Cage/Pig, Hidetoshi Nishijima/Drive My Car, or Peter Dinklage/Cyrano, but I think any of those three men will have trouble muscling past the bigger prestige choices.
Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
Caitrona Balfe-Belfast
Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard
Ruth Negga-Passing
Alternate: Marlee Matlin-CODA
Though I'm not entirely confident about the last three in that list, I'm even less confident in their competitors, so there you go. I almost went with a no guts/no glory pick with Meryl Streep in Don't Look Up (save us), but I figured that that film's love can (hopefully) only travel so far. Anne Dowd/Mass and Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley are both still plausible, certainly, but I can't help but assume that the best picture strength of the top four actresses' films (with Negga as the highbrow choice) is enough to keep this list of five set.
Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur-CODA
Ciaran Hinds-Belfast
Jared Leto-House of Gucci
Jesse Plemons-The Power of the Dog
Alternate: Bradley Cooper-Licorice Pizza
Ok, I came this close to yet again predicting another unlikely instance of Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) sliding in just because he's Ben Affleck, and he looks like he's been through a lot and came out the other side living his best life, but I just couldn't believe it. So instead, I swapped him last minute with Jesse Plemons in The Power of the Dog, who could be barreling toward a Jacki Weaver-esque coattails nomination where the entire main cast gets nominated lI guess I should be mad that Jared Leto's Waluigi/Chefboyardee impression will get in here, but I'm just not. Cooper is a very likely choice to upset any of the bottom three I've listed. If you're looking for less obvious spoilers (and both Ciaran Hinds and Leto aren't as strong as they could be), Mike Faist/West Side Story has some real support, as does Jamie Dornan/Belfast (though there's no way that Dornan gets in without Hinds getting in as well). We'll just have to wait and see how hunky the acting branch wants this lineup to be.
Original Screenplay
Licorice Pizza
Don't Look Up
Belfast
King Richard
Being the Ricardos
Alternate: Parallel Mothers
This easily feels like the most locked category to me. Can't see any of the immediate contenders (the aforementioned Mothers, A Hero, C'mon C'mon, Mass, The French Dispatch) cracking the list without one of the top five having a hugely catastrophic morning--though King Richard's momentum has been flagging, and Being the Ricardos is dumb and bad, so that's not outside the realm of possibility.
Adapted Screenplay
The Power of the Dog
The Lost Daughter
CODA
Dune
Drive My Car
Alternate: West Side Story
It makes no sense to predict that Dune gets in here, but not director, while West Side Story does the exact opposite (obviously I should pick one to get both), but I'm banking on how tough it can be for a musical to get recognition for its screenplay, and West Side Story's chances have been looking a little wobbly of late. I had a horrible, tremulous impulse to predict The Last Duel, and almost acted on it, but in my old age I've learned a little impulse control, and will be doing my best not to speak that thought into reality.
Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Alternate: The Power of the Dog
Licorice Pizza feels like the kind of loving, lived-in work on a best picture nominee that seems like an obvious nominee in retrospect, even if no one predicts it. Look for Power of the Dog or Belfast to score here if they have big mornings, or The Tragedy of Macbeth, which is my pick for the obvious nominee that gets left off come nominations morning.
Costume Design
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Cyrano
The Green Knight
Alternate: West Side Story
Have I gone a bit wacky here? Maybe, but this branch likes to get a little wacky. Cyrano feels like a likely sole nominee here, and I'm desperately hoping that the costumers feel like doing something cool and rewarding The Green Knight's spectacular but little-discussed medieval duds. Maybe a mistake to leave out West Side Story here, but that movie's buzz has been disappearing like nobody's business. Look for Spencer or Nightmare Alley to be surprise-but-not-really-a-surprise nominees.
Visual Effects
Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Godzilla vs. Kong
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Alternate: The Matrix Resurrections
Probably a fool's errand to bet against Matrix here, but I am a fool, and I have a ton of errands. Predicting/hoping that only one of the four Marvel films from this year gets in, though Eternals would be an easy pick. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Black Widow.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Dune
Cruella
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
Coming 2 America
Alternate: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Tough and arbitrary, like throwing jell-o so it lands on a ceiling fan. Only Dune really seems safe, though Cruella and House of Gucci are good bets. I'm picking Coming 2 America for this year's 'wait, what?' curveball that this category loves to throw, and am hoping that the malevolent Cabbage Patch antics of Tammy Faye will stay buried. I don't really believe Nightmare Alley gets the nom here, but honestly, I can't make a logical argument for anything else, based on the calls I've already made, so in it goes. Note: this category has also been narrowed down to a 10-film shortlist. The other finalists are West Side Story, Cyrano, The Suicide Squad, and No Time to Die.
Film Editing
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up
West Side Story
Licorice Pizza
Alternate: Belfast
Betting that West Side Story's impressive crafts save it here, despite its diminished best picture strength, and that Belfast's slowing momentum shows itself. I desperately wanted to find a place for Tick Tick Boom in this category, but the editing branch almost never throws us surprise nominations--if it's not up for best picture, it's rarely here.
Cinematography
The Power of the Dog
Dune
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Belfast
West Side Story
Alternate: Nightmare Alley
Getting to be a similar story here: I'm not confident about West Side Story holding out in these categories, but I also don't necessarily believe that its competitors are strong enough to push past it. Is there enough love out there for Nightmare Alley or No Time to Die? Surely The Green Knight, The French Dispatch, and Spencer have all fallen by the wayside. Keep an eye on Passing, if the Academy wants to go whole hog for black and white lensing this year (joining Belfast and The Tragedy of Macbeth to make three black and white nominees, which would be the first time since....a while ago).
Original Score
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up
The French Dispatch
Candyman
Alternate: Encanto
Going waaaay out on a limb here to pick Candyman, but why not? It's a gorgeous and surprising score, and it already made the 15-film list of finalists in this category. Some voters are clearly listening, and if enough hear it, they'll surely include it on their ballot. I was tempted to remove The French Dispatch for something more exciting, but reminded myself that this branch is notoriously insular, and never include more than one first-time nominee per year. Since I used all my big shock energy with Candyman, I've got to stick with Dispatch/Desplat, one of their favorite composers. Still, look to Encanto, No Time to Die, or Parallel Mothers to fill its place, or Being the Ricardos if all my worst nightmares come true.
Sound
Dune
West Side Story
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
Last Night in Soho
Alternate: A Quiet Place Part 2
That Last Night in Soho call is a risk, but it showed up at the BAFTAs, and I've got a hunch. Plus, I'd been predicting that Belfast limped in on best picture strength alone, but if it's missing in film editing, then surely it misses here as well. Note: this is another category that's been narrowed down to a 10-film list. The other finalists are Spider-Man: No Way Home, The Matrix Resurrections, and Tick Tick Boom.
Original Song
"Be Alive"-King Richard
"Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)"-Respect
"Somehow You Do"-Four Good Days
"No Time to Die"-No Time to Die
"Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto
Alternate: "Just Look Up"-Don't Look Up
Honestly I've no idea in which direction to go with this category, so after spending a few minutes spinning around in circles under a blood moon, communing with the old gods, I've settled on a little chaos. Of course Diane Warren will appear for her latest crazed howl at the stars in Four Good Days, and good for her--I cherish Diane Warren's yearly opportunity to nourish herself on those sweet Oscar voter tears. Probably silly to have both Don't Look Up and Belfast missing here, but I feel fine about it.
Animated Film
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Belle
Sing 2
Alternate: Flee
Sheer perversity to pick Sing 2 over Flee, one of the most acclaimed films of the year, but the narrative of the next three categories is whether or not Flee can score in all three, and I've decided to end the suspense early. Besides, Sing 2 has had a shockingly big box office run, and has solid word of mouth too. Look for Disney's Raya and the Last Dragon or Ron's Gone Wrong to take one of the big studio slots, or for The Summit of the Gods or Poupelle of Chimney Town to take the international slot.
International Film
Drive My Car-Japan
Flee-Denmark
A Hero-Iran
The Hand of God-Italy
Great Freedom-Austria
Alternate: The Worst Person in the World-Norway
A real embarrassment of riches in this category, with acclaimed and buzzy titles like Norway's entry, Compartment No. 6/Finland, Prayers for the Stolen/Mexico, and I'm Your Man/Germany potentially on the outside looking in, as well as spoilers like Bhutan's Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom or Panama's Plaza Catedral. I don't really feel confident in any of my picks but Drive My Car, which is probably cruising (heh) to a win. But other than that, it could be total chaos come nomination morning.
Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul
Procession
The Rescue
Flee
Attica
Alternate: Ascension
Like every year, this category is by far my weakest--in terms of how much I've seen, how much I know, and how much enthusiasm I can muster. Rooting for the good movies! Kind of hoping the Billie Eilish documentary makes it, just to see some of the stuffier types throw a chair or two about having to talk about the academy award nominated Billy Eilish doc.
And there you have it! For those playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
The Power of the Dog-11
Dune-10
West Side Story-7
Licorice Pizza-6
Belfast-6
I am absolutely over-predicting The Power of the Dog and under-predicting Belfast, but sometimes, dreams really do come true, and sometimes those dreams have to start with me being low-key shady to Kenneth Branagh on my blog.
Now, I know it's silly verging on ridiculous to log so many words about the Oscars while I haven't talked about my own picks--and those are coming soon! Sooner than you might think! And if that sounds like a threat, it is. But for now, if I could guarantee any nomination, it'd be Drive My Car getting in anywhere (though I'd love to see a rogue best actor nomination), and if I could deny any nomination, it'd be Javier Bardem's for Being the Ricardos (though really, the less that movie scores, the better).
And that's it! Come tomorrow morning, all of these predictions will be meaningless, and I wouldn't have it any other way. I'll be back in the morning to unwrap the nominations and see how kind or cruel Academy Santa has been. Then we can see how wrong I was (very wrong, but that's kind of the point), and which movies the Academy will send me scrambling to watch before the ceremony!
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