(source)
Ok, maybe I'm being a little melodramatic. I said yesterday that I was having an off-consensus year, and viewed through the lens of being somewhere between miffed and mortified by so many of the potential big contenders, things could have been much worse. Top Gun underperformed in most of the right places (though it still got a nomination for its screenplay, which is, uh, a bold and creative choice), The Whale underperformed, Black Panther excelled where it should have without making us scratch our heads to much thinking about it as a best picture nominee, and only like...two of my current bottom five of the year got nominated for anything. Granted, only two of my current top 10 got any kind of big support, but what can you do? The answer, of course, is spend the next 10,000 years screaming about the fact that my personal nemesis, All Quiet on the Western Front, was nominated for nine (nine!!!) Oscars this morning. And I plan to scream, but I'll try to leaven that by celebrating all the fun and groovy surprises this morning, of which there were many.
Maybe the biggest story of the year is the triumph of commercial fare, with the two highest grossing films of the year (Avatar and Top Gun) making it into best picture--the first time this has happened since 1982, the third highest grossing film of the year (Black Panther) garnering the most nominations for a movie not nominated for best picture, and other financial successes like Elvis, The Batman, and nomination leader Everything Everywhere All at Once (the little indie that could, making $100 million worldwide) doing great. That's not to say that no tiny movies thrived this morning (Andrea Riseborough is surely on a dirt bike right now, wheelie-ing her way into the history books), but it's striking to see such a robust morning for studio fare. Now, if the Oscar telecast ratings are low again, maybe the Academy will finally realize that ratings aren't tied to the nominated films as much as they are that live TV and awards shows in general are in decline.
But enough context--let's look at the nominations! I'll put an asterisk next to the nominations I predicted correctly, but my silliness might have gotten the better of me this year, so they may be few and far between.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front*
Avatar: The Way of Water*
The Banshees of Inisherin*
Elvis*
Everything Everywhere All at Once*
The Fabelmans*
Tar*
Top Gun: Maverick*
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Not at all surprised that my RRR moonshot from yesterday came to naught, but I am surprised how (relatively) strong a showing Triangle of Sadness managed after seeming to be totally out of the race. Ditto Women Talking, which clung to life here despite missing almost everywhere else. Overall, this list is...fine? It's maybe not my dream lineup, but it's a nifty snapshot of the year, and there's more than one option to pick for an interesting winner.
Early winner prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Director
Todd Field-Tar*
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once*
Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin*
Ruben Östlund-Triangle of Sadness
Ruben Östlund-Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans*
Östlund was one of the biggest surprises of the morning for sure (and one I'm still wrangling with, given my fraught relationship with his body of work). Daniel Kwan is now the fifth Asian director nominated in four years--a wild and spectacular statistic, considering only four Asian men (Hiroshi Teshigihara, Akira Kurosawa, M. Night Shyamalan, and Ang Lee) had been nominated in this category in the rest of the Academy's history. Spielberg also ties for the second most nominated director of all time with this, his ninth nomination.
Early winner prediction: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Actress
Cate Blanchett-Tar*
Ana De Armas-Blonde*
Andrea Riseborough-To Leslie
Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once*
Yesterday, I called Riseborough's late-breaking Oscar run a publicity campaign for the movie, and I am happy to eat my words. Also happy to see Michelle Williams make it--it's not my favorite performance of her career (or in the movie), but I, uh, tend to go pretty hard for The Fabelmans. Also worth noting that Michelle Yeoh becomes the first ever Asian woman to be nominated in this category.
Early winner prediction: Cate Blanchett-Tar
Actor
Austin Butler-Elvis*
Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin*
Brendan Fraser-The Whale*
Paul Mescal-Aftersun*
Bill Nighy-Living*
Probably my biggest clapping/whooping outburst came from hearing Mescal's name, who gives a fantastic performance in a fantastic movie. Conventional wisdom suggests that Fraser and Farrell fight to the death now, but will the Academy's love of biopics and Elvis, which garnered 8 nominations, bring Butler the win? This category contains all first-time nominees, the first time that's happened in best actor since 1934--and this time is certainly more noteworthy, given the pool of prior nominees was much smaller in 1934, less than a decade after the Oscars began. The acting categories in general were dominated by first time nominees: a full 16 out of 20 slots went to first-timers.
Early winner prediction: Brendan Fraser-The Whale
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*
Hong Chau-The Whale
Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin*
Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once*
Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All at Once
The most volatile category ended up with more of a bang than a whimper, with the final slots going to supporting players acting next to threats to win the lead races and two performers from the most nominated film. ...I mean that relatively, of course, given this category also contains the first acting nomination for a Marvel movie and a performance whose most emotional moments come when that character has hot dogs for fingers. So it's still pretty wacky and volatile, and not just in its content--I'd argue that any of these women but Chau has a shot to win.
Early winner prediction: Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin*
Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway
Judd Hirsch-The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin*
Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once*
Thrilled for Brian Tyree Henry, whose well-deserved nomination was starting to look like a lost cause. What does poor Paul Dano have to do to make the Academy love him? Whose grandmother did he run over? Every Oscar season narrative he gets seems to end in sixth place. Still, I am over the moon that Barry Keoghan finally has an Oscar nomination for being one of the most rewardingly weird guys in front of a camera right now, and I'll be delighted to watch Ke Huy Quan get his Oscar.
Early winner prediction: Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin*
Everything Everywhere All at Once*
Everything Everywhere All at Once*
The Fabelmans*
Tar*
Triangle of Sadness*
The same five that have shown up everywhere in the precursors showed up here as well, and they're not a bad bunch. The way looks clear for the Banshee/Everywhere showdown that was always going to happen. Does the movie that wins this category win best picture? Maybe? Probably?
Early winner prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front*
Glass Onion*
Glass Onion*
Living
Top Gun: Maverick*
Top Gun: Maverick*
Women Talking*
I've kept the All Quiet screaming to a minimum, but let me just say that this getting in for its adaptation is absolute lunacy, and I will never, ever get over it. If you follow me on letterboxd (which you should do! Find me here), then you can read the couple thousand words I wrote on why the book is a miserable and ethically dubious take on an anti-war book. But if you don't, let me sum up my feelings by banging my head against the wall for eight years. Given All Quiet's presence, I don't even have enough emotional bandwidth to be as annoyed as I should by Top Gun's presence. Weird year for this category, huh? Women Talking has seemed like the undisputed frontrunner here for months, and still might be. But while it would be stupendous to see Sarah Polley with an Oscar in her hands, I'm deeply nervous that one of those other two movies (the ones that have me banging my head against the wall) will swoop in and take it from her.
Early winner prediction: Women Talking (but I'm not convinced)
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front*
Avatar: The Way of Water*
Babylon*
Elvis*
The Fabelmans
Pretty strong lineup, all things considered. Vaguely surprising for Everything Everywhere to miss this, given how much the Academy clearly loved it. Also fun to see The Fabelmans show up more than I'd hoped it would (it scored seven nominations to my predicted five). Guess they loved all those period TVs in the living room?
Early winner prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Costume Design
Babylon*
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*
Elvis*
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris*
God bless Mrs. Harris, who now gets to add Hollywood to her list of travel destinations. Additional blessings for Black Panther--I'm not the sequel's biggest fans, but if it didn't score here I was ready to swallow an entire rack of Victorian gowns in protest. Both this race and Production Design look like they'll come to Babylon vs. Elvis, with special spoiler Literally Anything Else.
Early winner prediction: Elvis
Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front*
Avatar: The Way of Water*
The Batman*
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick*
Color me furious and disheartened that Nope didn't manage a nomination here (or anywhere, which is dumb and bad), especially to make room for Black Panther's limpid faux-underwater skullduggery. This category (among others) showcases that the Academy will always love a Batman movie more than a Marvel one (unless it's Black Panther). Not that I'm complaining--I also would have picked The Batman over the Marvel output this year in most categories. I'll also take this opportunity to point how poorly Avatar fared across the morning, only landing in the default spots. The second movie in a trilogy (or series, I suppose) tends to struggle with the Academy, but this Avatar struggled more than most.
Early winner prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman*
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis*
The Whale*
Signs here for how much they loved All Quiet on the Western Front (not that we're wanting for signs), given how rarely gore makeup plays for this category, as well as for the level of enthusiasm for Black Panther (landing both here and in visual effects was something that the original movie failed to do). You have to imagine that it was close to cracking the top 10, right?
Early winner prediction: The Whale
Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin*
Elvis*
Everything Everywhere All at Once*
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick*
Probably a solid snapshot of the potential best picture winners (while you don't have to be nominated in editing to win best picture, it definitely helps), and a real slug-fest between Most Edits between Elvis, Everything Everywhere, and Top Gun.
Early winner prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front*
Bardo*
Elvis
Empire of Light*
Tar
Far and away the category most deeply besotted with chaos on this Oscar morning. Top Gun, the uncontested frontrunner in this category, had been hoovering up every cinematography prize known to man (and some to animals) and seemed guaranteed to do the same at the Oscars, until the cinematographers scampered down their runway and pushed all those planes back into the abyss. What's left is a wide-open race with some intriguing and horrifying choices. Will Roger Deakins win a third Oscar for coastal British nightmare Empire of Light? Will All Quiet add to its pile of Oscars for having so much fun fetishizing the ugliness of war? Will Mandy Walker, only the third woman ever nominated in this category, become the first ever woman to win for Elvis? I don't know that Elvis would be my personal pick, but cinematography is the only Oscar category that has never been won by a woman, so I might root for it anyway. Also, let's take a moment to celebrate Tar's below the line strength, getting (somewhat) unexpected nods here and in film editing. Wondering whose child Lydia Tar berated at school to make this happen.
Early winner prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon*
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans*
Feels like a grim category, even if I love the Babylon score, dig the Fabelmans score (normally I'm against the constant John Williams default nods, but this felt like his best work at least since Munich in 2005), and think the others are all at least .... palatable? But given the nominations that could have been, I'll reserve the right to pout a bit. (Sidebar: I have got to stop predicting Michael Abels as the surprise nominee for a Jordan Peele movie. I've done it three times now, with no success.)
Early winner prediction: Babylon
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front*
Avatar: The Way of Water*
The Batman
Elvis*
Top Gun: Maverick*
Well, this category is nothing if not loud. Thrilled to see The Batman's gloomy and teeth-gnashing sound work get in, and the rest is fine, I suppose, if you're into explosions.
Early winner prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
Original Song
"Applause"-Tell It Like a Woman*
"Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick*
"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*
"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*
"Naatu Naatu"-RRR
"This is a Life"-Everything Everywhere All at Once
As always, Diane Warren rises from the depths, trident in hand, come to claim her prize for writing a song for a movie that snapped into existence two days ago. I swear, one of these years, the Academy will stop making crawl into the depths of the internet to find this year's dour Diane Warren-backed project. But it won't be this year, which means I'll have to sit myself in front of Tell It Like a Woman. "Naatu Naatu" becomes the very first Indian song to be nominated for this year (which feels impossible, given the presence and prevalence of Indian musicals, but here we are). It's also, as chance (or something else) would have it, the only song on this list that is not an emotional ballad played over the end credits. A big emotional credits ballad can be a huge asset to a movie (Celine Dion didn't sink that Titanic for nothing), but it would also be neat to see at least one or two songs that play a role in their film as well.
Early winner prediction: "Naatu Naatu"-RRR
Animated Film
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio*
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On*
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish*
The Sea Beast
Turning Red*
Blessings be, my nightmare Pinocchio (a character that made me physically recoil in fear and horror, and a film that I've since decided I didn't like at all), only showed up here, when some people were predicting it for as many as four or five nominations (including best picture). Thankfully--for me, at least--the spooky posh little log boy remains trapped in his prison. Something of a shock to see The Sea Beast muscle past its higher profile competition, but not an entirely unpleasant one. But speaking of unpleasant, now I have to be the single man in his mid 30s who walks up to a ticket booth on a Thursday at 1.35 and says hi, can I get one for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.
Early winner prediction: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany*
Argentina, 1985-Argentina*
Close-Belgium*
EO-Poland
The Irish Girl-Ireland*
The big shock here is South Korea's Decision to Leave missing out, which is obviously a bummer. But I'll admit that I can't really pick what it should replace, as I haven't seen most of these (and the one I have seen I can't stand, so). Fun to see Ireland get its first nomination with a Gaelic-language film, and even more fun to see EO show up to represent the year of the cinematic donkey. (So many high profile donkeys in movies this year. What do they know that we don't?)
Early winner prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany
Documentary Feature
All That Breathes*
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed*
Fire of Love*
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Again, I can't comment too much here, given how unacquainted I am, but I love to see the gorgeous and altogether wonderful Fire of Love finding a spot here.
Early winner prediction: All That Breathes
Of the non-specialty categories (i.e. not animated, international, or documentary), I've seen most of the nominees already, missing only Blonde, To Leslie, Living, Bardo, and Tell It Like a Woman. These might already be enough to shatter my hopes of seeing all the nominees before Oscar night, as I missed Living in theaters and it's not available elsewhere yet, and Tell It Like a Woman apparently doesn't exist. Exactly 30 people have logged it on Letterboxd, and it only has 47 ratings on IMDB--like, if the entire crew went onto either of those sites, it'd have more than twice those numbers. The other categories look even worse. I've seen all the animated movies but Puss in Boots, which is waiting for me at my local multiplex, but have only seen on each of the international and documentary nominees. Of those eight movies, only Argentina, 1985 and Navalny are currently available to me. While I'm hopeful that more of these movies will become easier to access now that they're Oscar-nominated, I won't keep my hopes too high. Unfortunately, this year I moved to somewhere with much worse indie theater infrastructure than where I lived before, and then I didn't have a car for a lot of the prime period when movies like these were in theaters. So I'm afraid I'm a bit behind the eight ball, but I'll still try and check off as many of these as I can.
Predictions-wise, I found myself somewhere in the middle. I only completely nailed best actor and adapted screenplay, but I also flubbed original score with only two correct guess. Still, the rest of the categories went well enough, so I'll live to predict again.
For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once-11
2. The Banshees of Inisherin-9
3. All Quiet on the Western Front-9
4. Elvis-8
5. The Fabelmans-7
6. Tar-6
7. Top Gun: Maverick-6
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever-5
9. Avatar: The Way of Water-4
10. Triangle of Sadness-3
Definitely a spread the wealth kind of year, with only one movie hitting double digits, and even then only just.
And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: The Woman King, She Said, Decision to Leave, A Man Called Otto, The Inspection, Till, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Menu, White Noise, Bones and All, Nope, Corsage, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Amsterdam, Moonage Daydream, Inu-Oh, Wendell and Wild, Strange World, Saint Omer, Return to Seoul, Joyland, The Territory, Mad God, The Northman, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Catherine Called Birdy, Crimes of the Future, Pearl, Barbarian, The Lost City, You Won't Be Alone, Three Thousand Years of Longing, Moonfall
You win some, you lose some.
And there we have it! What are your reactions? What makes you furious, thrilled, or horrified? As always, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I love the Oscars and all the silly little things that come with them, and every year before the nominations I have trouble sleeping, like a kid before Christmas. It's silly and stupid, but something ought to be.
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