At some point in the years following 2020, I'm going to have to start this intro about something other than the interminable and impossible passage of time (how can it be 2023 when my new iPhone 6 clearly says that is 2015 at the very latest), the collective limbo we're all doing our best to crawl out of, and how the concepts of movies and moviegoing continue threatening to swallow themselves whole. And maybe, just maybe, 2024 will be the year that I write something new (relevant contemporary news events like Godzilla crawling his way out of the depths and finding everything above the water distasteful, or maybe aliens will turn out to be real, but really boring to talk to), but in this, the year 2023, I'm going to lovingly tape my broken record back together and lament the fact that a) it is 2023, b) time is meaningless, and c) oh god, the movies, who will save the movies, etc.
I can't help but see all this reflected back in this year's movie slate, though, which featured a quietly staggering number of films about filmmaking, the continued relevance of film, stardom, or even art in general, and how Hollywood should perceive itself and its own checkered history. Again and again this year, we got to watch directors staging the act of looking everything that entails. But, as Jordan Peele taught us in Nope, the great flying sky eyeball/anus comes for us all, and there's nothing to do but grit your teeth, point your camera, and get ready to be pulled into the sky.
The real (and most important) question, however, is which of these movies will get showered in little golden men before they get swallowed whole? Well you're in luck, as I have been, if for nothing else, been put on this Earth to regale you with Oscar facts and opinions until I pass out from the exertion. And I'm already pulled out a preemptive fainting couch, as these year's Oscars are poised to be absolutely silly. We find ourselves in a post-covid (well, post-lockdown, as there is no post-covid) movie slump in which fewer movies are being produced and even fewer movies are making their way to theaters (this year saw only two thirds the number of wide releases as 2019 did), which means that the Academy will either have to stretch to find small and weird movies it wouldn't have previously considered, or it's going to take a deep breath and toss its biggest awards at what seem to be the only movies left in theaters--big franchise fare. And as it turns out, we might be in for a good bit of both. The 2022 Oscars might see the three highest grossers of the year all nominated for best picture--something that has never even once happened--but it might also see a wider than average slew of tiny indies and international fare bolster its ranks. Who's to say? (Me, I'm to say.) As for my own preferences, I'm finding myself in an off-consensus year, where very little that I truly loved is poised to do much more than fight for scraps, and plenty of nominations could be coming that will make me want to reach inside of my head and pull my eyes back into my skull like horrified little turtles.
At any rate, there's a huge amount of room for shock and upheaval, and also plenty of room to take the easy way at every opportunity and turn in some of the dullest Oscar noms in recent memory. Fingers crossed for the former, and pitchforks prepared for the latter. But while we wait to find out, I'll go ahead and dump all my predictions into one irresponsibly large post. Bear in mind that I predict for fun just as much as I predict for accuracy--there are plenty of places on the internet to go if you're looking for stone-faced predictions, but there are only so many places to turn to if wanted someone to photoshop Sammy Fabelman into Nope and then make some butt jokes. And of all the butt jokes in all the world, you walked into mine, so let's work with what we've got.
(note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood--so the first movie listed is the most likely, the second the next most likely, etc.)
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
Tar
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Whale
RRR
Alternate: Women Talking
The first six are all solid locks, led by Everything Everywhere which, in the course of eight months, has gone from silly daydream to the most-embraced a sci-fi martial arts absurdist comedy family drama with a whole fight about who gets to put a little statue up their butt movie has ever been. Avatar and All Quiet aren't quite as safe, but both make sense (at least in a precursor sense--I've no idea how or why All Quiet got this powerful, but just the idea of it scoring here makes me beg for the sweet embrace of death. That leaves two slots with a ridiculous number of strong contenders. The Whale seems like an easy choice (it's done well at the precursors, is beloved in the real world even if it's hated online, and all the older women at my screening were audibly weeping during it, which feels like a reliable bellwether). So what's left? You've got a few awards-friendly movies whose critical and audience reception wasn't what was hoped for with Women Talking and Babylon, you've got muscular and respected (if not loved) commercial choices like The Woman King, Glass Onion, and Black Panther, and you've got fringe-ier choices with deep pockets of passionate support like Triangle of Sadness, RRR, and Aftersun. And...I had hoped that listing all these options would help me decide what to put in that ninth spot, but it didn't. Smart money says Women Talking, but I've got a gut feeling that it'll miss. So while we're sticking with our guts, I'll do something very silly and add RRR into the top 10, even if it has limited chances anywhere else--surely enough voters will have seen it and decided that any movie in which a protagonist wields a tiger as a melee weapon deserves a spot at the top.
Director
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans
Todd Field-Tar
Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin
James Cameron-Avatar: The Way of Water
Alternate: Edward Berger-All Quiet on the Western Front
Unless the Academy throws some huge curveballs (and they might--I've heard whispers of a Spielberg or McDonagh snub), only the last spot is up for grabs here. Recently, the directing branch has opted for a 'cool' pick (something indie or international) where everyone else goes mainstream, which would benefit Berger, Park Chan-wook for Decision to Leave, S.S. Rajamouli for RRR, and particularly Charlotte Wells for Aftersun, who I almost picked. Or if best picture buzz is all that matters this year, Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun and Baz Luhrmann for Elvis could easily make a showing. But the latter two don't strike me as directing nominees, and all the hip and sexy options don't feel right, so I'll say Cameron gets rewarded for spending thirteen years teaching cameras how breathe underwater.
Actress
Cate Blanchett-Tar
Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Danielle Deadwyler-Till
Viola Davis-The Woman King
Ana De Armas-Blonde
Alternate: Ana De Armas-Blonde
Three locked spots followed by a bevy of seemingly impossible contenders, but someone's got to make it in. Conventional wisdom suggests Davis, De Armas, and Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans fighting for two spots, but I struggle to imagine either of the latter campaigns happening (and if we're being honest, Davis in The Woman King feels like the kind of predicted nominee that we'll all look back on and slap our foreheads, wondering we we could have thought it was going to happen). But who fills the space they left? People (specifically celebrities on twitter) won't stop talking about Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie, but it feels more like a last-minute publicity campaign than a serious contender, and Emma Thompson in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande seems similarly doomed. Margot Robbie in Babylon and Olivia Colman in Empire of Light wait in the wings, but do either of them seem any more plausible than a major Oscar nom for Blonde? So I've gone with Davis as the easy pick and De Armas operating under the assumption that the Academy is going to force me to watch Blonde.
Actor
Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser-The Whale
Austin Butler-Elvis
Bill Nighy-Living
Paul Mescal-Aftersun
Alternate: Tom Cruise-Top Gun: Maverick
I guess I'm entering my agnosticator-prognosticator phase, because I don't believe in like half of the nominations I'm picking. The top three are golden, but I am struggling to believe that Bill Nighy is actually secure. Ditto Mescal, whose performance I adore, but he's awfully young, in a very small movie, and not known for his film work. But who would replace them? The Tom Cruise nomination push feels like something drawn from the ugliest parts of my subconscious, forced to chase me around and ruin my day--which makes it plausible, I guess, but unsavory. A Tom Hanks/A Man Called Otto jump scare might be smart, but you'll see in a bit that I've got my own Tom Hanks nightmare bonanza planned, so asking for two would be presumptuous. And beyond those men? Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans, Adam Sandler/Hustle, Jeremy Pope/The Inspection, Hugh Jackman/The Son all feel more like faces you'd see on milk cartons in the mid 80s than likely Oscar scenarios, so I'll stick with the boys I've got and be ready to throw a whole lot of side-eye their way.
Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon-Triangle of Sadness
Nina Hoss-Tar
Alternate: Hong Chau-The Whale
Pound for pound the weirdest category, and maybe of my Oscar-watching lifetime? Beyond Condon, absolutely no one is safe, and a winning narrative could come from at least seven or eight different people. Bassett and Curtis are arguably the safest, both angling for career honors in genres that the Academy usually doesn't love, but I wouldn't be surprised seeing either of them miss. Dolly De Leon in Triangle of Sadness, Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Hong Chau in The Whale all complete a trifecta of stellar Asian actresses who all seem to be competing with each other (unfortunately, the Academy has in the past had a somewhat pronounced bias toward Asian actors and cinema in general). Any talking woman from Women Talking could theoretically make it, Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy in particular, and Carey Mulligan/She Said, Janelle Monae/Glass Onion, Keke Palmer/Nope could reclaim some of their early season glory. But I'm gonna throw all that logic out the window and say that Nina Hoss in Tar gets it without any precursor support whatsoever. Most years, at least one performer who acts next to a big frontrunner (like Cate Blanchett this year) slides in with their more awards-laden scene partner--and it helps that Hoss is just as good (if not better) than Blanchett. And I'll pick Dolly De Leon as well because I threw a metaphorical dart and that's where it landed.
Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano-The Fabelmans
Tom Hanks-Elvis
Alternate: Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway
You know, with the supporting actress race eating up all the bananas energy room, I feel like we haven't fully girded our loins for how bananas these guys might get as well. Plenty of people are predicting an easy 2/2/1 split with the Banshees boys and the Fabelmans (Dano and Judd Hirsch) each getting dual nods in the same category--something that almost never happens. And sure, there are boring or default options (I see you, Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse! I see you, Brad Pitt in Babylon!), but there's also room for some fresh hell. What about a shocking James Hong/Everything Everywhere nod? What if all the dual nods miss and are filled with indie fare like Causeway and Ben Whishaw in Women Talking? Or what if, hypothetically, a heavily made up Tom Hanks with a silly accent snuck around an acclaimed movie with best picture heat, even if the discourse from the summer was all about how terrible a performance it was? Maybe it's far-fetched, but it also feels inevitable.
Original Screenplay
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
Alternate: The Menu
I came this close to swapping The Menu and Triangle of Sadness, assuming the Academy would go for the more recent of two similarly minded, themed, and looking films, but the season has coalesced so decisively around these five movies that it'd be silly to pick anything different. Still, fingers, toes, and several vital organs crossed for Aftersun.
Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
The Whale
Glass Onion
All Quiet on the Western Front
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate: She Said
Most years some degree of parity between big contenders in original and adapted screenplay. This year, however, has gifted us with a hot mess of ragged contenders stumbling their way out of the race, sidelined indie fare, and big movies that, uh, are not most revered for their writing. Maybe the only category this year where I wouldn't be surprised if any of the predicted five missed. Plenty of projects waiting in the wings (White Noise, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Bones and All, and Living spring immediately to mind), but I tend to think that this category will either hit us with all the most obvious picks (i.e. the top six up there) or throw some gonzo curveballs that no one could have seen coming.
Production Design
Babylon
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: The Fabelmans
Starting a couple different narratives as we enter the craft categories: how high can All Quiet on the Western Front and Everything Everywhere fly, and how hard is early season frontrunner going to fall? For better or worse, I think the answer in all instances is a lot (accompanied two out of three times by a weary eyeroll from me). We can ask a similar question of Black Panther, which, despite its middling critical acclaim and somewhat disappointing financial returns, is poised to get as many as nine nominations or as few as one or two.
Costume Design
Babylon
Elvis
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Corsage
Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris and Corsage feel like the kinds of fashion-first period pics that use the clothes to tell the story that often land here. I'd love to throw in a Glass Onion surprise, but I just can't see it happening. Still, Everything Everywhere or The Woman King could muscle in on the strength of their craft (or their prestige).
Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
The Batman
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Dumbledore
Nope
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
My guiding principle for this category is that the Academy will seek to hurt us (Fantastic Beasts), but then they'll feel really bad about us and do something nice for the world (Nope). I haven't seen Fantastic Beasts or Jurassic World: Dominion doing well on anyone's predictions list, but it's worth pointing out that the Visual Effects Society (The only industry precursor for this category) went wild for both of those while ignoring 'safer' bets. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. In addition to the seven I've already talked about, the other finalists are Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Thirteen Lives.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Elvis
The Whale
The Batman
Blonde
Amsterdam
Alternate: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Another roster designed to make me watch things I don't want to watch (have I just been doing this too long? Have I lost the sunny optimism that would have once had me believe that I wasn't going to have to watch Amsterdam for the Academy's sick amusement?). I see tons of people predicting All Quiet on the Western Front, which seems like a safe bet, but this category almost never goes for gore makeup, even in the context of war movies, so I'll remain skeptical for now. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. In addition to the seven discussed above, the other finalists are Babylon, Crimes of the Future, and Emancipation. (Lol watch Emancipation get the nod and then we all have to get invested in a Will Smith Oscar narrative way sooner than we were planning.)
Film Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Elvis
The Banshees of Inisherin
Avatar: The Way of Water
Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front
Traditionally, this is the craft category most tied to best picture, so look here to see what might be surging or flagging (a Fabelmans surprise or Banshees snub, for instance). Maybe even Tar gets in and establishes itself as a bigger threat in the big race? Whatever keeps All Quiet on the Western Front away.
Cinematography
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Empire of Light
Avatar: The Way of Water
Bardo
Alternate: Elvis
Not at all confident with these choices, Avatar feeling the most vulnerable to an upset. Not sure about Bardo, but Innaritu's never made a movie that the Academy didn't nominate, and this feels like as plausible a place as any to do it. The Batman and The Fabelmans seem likely as alternates, and even likelier as the superhero team-up we all deserve. Look for Elvis, Everything Everywhere, or Banshees to show up here if they have a strong morning.
Original Score
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Nope
Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin
To what extent are we letting the early season narratives cloud our judgement? The predictions are dominated by movies that have fallen flat on their face as the year went on--is it ridiculous to think that they all (Babylon, The Fabelmans, Women Talking) might miss in favor of fresher films? Probably, but I'm gonna think about it anyway. And speaking of thinking, I'm gonna do my very best to manifest a Nope nomination here by thinking very strong and positive thoughts, and I invite you all to join me.
Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate: The Batman
Though I'd love to find room for The Batman, this feels like the right five to me: A good mix of genre fare, musicals, and the token sound slot for the best picture frontrunner. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Babylon, Moonage Daydream, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio.
Original Song
"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick
"Naatu Naatu"-RRR
"Applause"-Tell It Like a Woman
"Til You're Home"-A Man Called Otto
Alternate: "Ciao Papa"-Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
The yearly blood rite is complete, and Diane Warren will storm the Dolby theater once more with a soulful ballad from a film that probably didn't exist until the sheer power of her words pulled it from the ether. And speaking of blood rites, I've been doing my best to stave off the encroaching A Man Called Otto assault, but I've failed, which means I'm going to have to drag my ass into a theater for two hours just so I can hear the end credits song.
Animated Film
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Turning Red
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Bad Guys
Inu-Oh
Alternate: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Despite having a normal lineup two minutes ago, I was possessed by a last minute fit of madness (no doubt inspired by all the blood magic in the previous paragraph) and have chosen chaos with a Marcel snub and Inu-Oh sneaking in over more obvious smaller titles like Wendell and Wild or My Father's Dragon. But I've got to be me, even when being me means doing something stupid.
International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany
Decision to Leave-South Korea
Argentina, 1985-Argentina
Close-Belgium
The Quiet Girl-Ireland
Alternate: Return to Seoul-Cambodia
Unbelievably difficult to predict this year, thanks to a wildly acclaimed and by all accounts spectacular list of qualifiers. I was tempted to pick a real longshot like Joyland from Pakistan or even The Blue Caftan from Morocco, but it seems I used up all my courage the last category, so we'll have to settle for the relative safety of a nomination for Ireland.
Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
Descendant
Moonage Daydream
Alternate: Navalny
Threw a dart to predict this year's high-profile snub in a category that almost always cold-shoulders at least one of its frontrunners, and the dart struck Navalny, on top of everything else he has to deal with. I'll admit that I haven't seen most of the movies eligible here, and, as always, can conjure only sporadic enthusiasm, but I've got my fingers crossed for whichever outcome would be the best.
And there you have it! For those playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
Everything Everywhere All at Once-9
The Banshees of Inisherin-8
Elvis-8
Avatar: The Way of Water-7
Top Gun: Maverick-7
I'm maybe over-predicting Avatar and under-predicting All Quiet and The Fabelmans--the first out of pure and unbridled malice, and the second in hopes that I can reverse-psychology the Academy into showering The Fabelmans in little gold men.
I know it's silly for me to so wantonly spend all of these words talking about Oscars when I haven't talked about my own picks--but those are coming soon! Sometime in February, as per the usual schedule/what the screaming rock hyraxes in my head dictate. But for now, if I could guarantee any nomination (or narrative), it'd be Aftersun having a shocking and major run a la Beasts of the Southern Wild in 2012, and if I could prevent one nomination (or narrative), I would slap the pens/mice out of as many hands as possible that were voting for All Quiet on the Western Front.
And that's it! In about 15 hours, every one of these predictions will be meaningless, which is exactly as it should be. I'll be back in the morning to unwrap all the Oscar presents and see how happy we should be (or how rocks we have to throw).
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