So things are, as it turns out, a bit of a mess.
I don't know if it's because it actually happens, or because I'm good at projecting my own thoughts and experiences onto the world around me, or if because my penchant for grandiose bullshittery leads me to broken clocks that are right at least once a year, but every year it seems like the narrative of the Oscars maps uncannily onto the narrative of the world writ large as well as (writ somewhat less large) onto my life. It's a bizarre balancing act of reading the tea leaves and quietly pushing the tea leaves into the pattern you want and then also sometimes there's a Godzilla nearby (not this year, necessarily, but we do have some horny bisexual tennis pros waiting in the wings, and that's not nothing).
So what is that narrative? Last year I (kind of justly) celebrated the return of capital-C Cinema after the pandemic, things returning to some kind of normal at the box office while the Academy broadened its reach for what it considered the 'best' of the year--even though the results of that broadened love limited the chances of movies not nominated for best picture to be nominated in other categories. And all of that was true and right at the time, but why don't we, uh, go ahead and look around and see how much we see that feels triumphant and right. (Did you see look around and see Colman Domingo winning an Oscar? I didn't.) This year--in every possible scale and sense--is a bit of a mess. Where last year we had ten consensus movies marching to the finale with one obvious winner joyously riding its atomic bomb right into the Oscar-clad ground. This year we have one of the stranger Oscar bunches in recent history, in that none of them seem plausible as nominees, much less winners. An explicit tragicomedy about a sex worker from a director who's always been shunned by the Academy? Yes! A nearly four hour long epic about architecture that goes places you definitely did not see coming, directed by someone who has never made a movie that grossed more than $1 million until now? Yes! A body horror Movie in which an industrial amount of fake blood is squirted out a disembodied limb like a firehose? Yes! That movie from France about Mexico that you probably only know because of the "penis to vaginaaaa" clip that went around twitter and tiktok, the one that everyone except awards voters seem to hate? Yes Yes Yes Yes! And that's not even mentioning Wicked, which, in the weirdest twist of the year, actually turned out good--and look at what we had to do to the timeline to create a reality in which that makes sense.
Point is, things are gonna be goofy, if nothing else. This will be a year where the peppy young Oscar scholars of the future will stare at the winners with a mixture of fear and awe (you know, kind of like how 2005 saw a four-way tie for most Oscar wins of the year between Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha, and King Kong, and then the other Oscars went to Rachel Weisz, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," and a Narnia movie). So everyone hold onto their respective butts (or the butts of a nearby loved one), because the next month and a half is gonna be silly.
Oscar nominations come out tomorrow morning, by which point I will be far, far away from here (wherein 'here' probably means 'any plane of reality in which Challengers gets the recognition it deserves,' unfortunately), and all of this will be meaningless, but that doesn't mean that I'm not gonna burn all of our time by writing a few thousands words about what might happen between now and then. Every year around Oscar nominations, my molecules slight vibrating at a slightly different frequency from the rest of the galaxy, and the ramifications of that are a) I have a wonderful time doing this, and b) that I predict a bunch of implausible surprises that certainly won't happen, but wouldn't it be fun if they did? So bear that in mind as you follow along--there are plenty of websites that are predicting for accuracy, but I tend to stray into predicting as a way of attempting to cosmos along its rightful path. (God, writing this to The Brutalist soundtrack is making the tone of this so weird.) And that cosmos ain't gonna right itself (clearly), so now I'm just gonna have to go predict an alternate timeline in which Kneecap gets to perform at the Oscars--and I couldn't be happier. So let's get to it!
(Note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood, so the first movie listed is most likely, the second is next most likely, etc.)
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Sing Sing
Nosferatu
Alternate: A Real Pain
Screw it, I have a proud tradition of making nine level-headed predictions in this category and then opting for anarchy. It's ridiculous of me not to pick A Real Pain or Nickel Boys for that tenth spot, but Nosferatu peaked at the right time, it's done great with awards organizations, and was a big and unexpected box office success. Plus, it's looking to get four to six other nominations, and in this era of the Academy, it makes more sense to just shuffle it into best picture instead of assuming it can hit those numbers without a nomination here. Beyond that tenth spot, I'm confident on just about everything else, though Sing Sing has been looking weak recently. Look for the aforementioned Real Pain/Nickel Boys to sneak in if so, or possibly something wild like Challengers, September 5, or All We Imagine as Light. (I kept wanting to predict Juror No. 2 as the first one-nomination best picture nominee in decades but I just wasn't strong enough. Still, if that happens, let's all pretend that I did.)
Director
Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Sean Baker-Anora
Edward Berger-Conclave
Jacques Audiard-Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat-The Substance
Alternate: RaMell Ross-Nickel Boys
Looking to be a grim category for me with both Jacques Audiard sneaking in for his own brand of dull madness as well as my nemesis, Edward Berger (look, I like Conclave as much as the next person, but you need to do a lot more than one fun pope movie before crawling out of the hole that making All Quiet on the Western Front dug you). This feels like a category with exactly one line of wiggle room, which I'm granting Fargeat for her anything but dull madness in The Substance. I know picking Payal Kapadia/All We Imagine as Light is the hip choice, and there's an argument to be made for her taking the cool new international slot that's seemed all but guaranteed for the past few years, but I'd counterargue that Audiard and Fargeat are already camping on that spot. Look for James Mangold and Jon M. Chu if A Complete Unknown and Wicked do better than expected, but I'm not convinced. Also, am I an idiot for not mentioning Denis Villeneuve and Dune til the end? Probably.
Actress
Mikey Madison-Anora
Demi Moore-The Substance
Karla Sofia Gascon-Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo-Wicked
Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here
Alternate: Marianne Jean-Baptiste-Hard Truths
Sticking with the consensus here, even though I strongly considered something plausibly surprising (like Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl or Nicole Kidman in Babygirl) or implausibly surprising (like Lily-Rose Depp in Nosferatu). But I'm Still Here has been gaining steam, and it'd be unproductively silly to pretend like I can't see that for the sake of being able to say Academy Award Nominee Pamela Anderson for about 18 hours.
Actor
Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes-Conclave
Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Sebastian Stan-The Apprentice
Alternate: Daniel Craig-Queer
Look, this is probably the easiest category for us to get right--just swap Daniel Craig in there and you're golden. But I'm going for the riskier call that Queer is a little too gay and strange for the Academy, that Sebastian Stan's stellar year as a serious actor debutante will warrant some reward, and that Jeremy Strong's recent awards success for the same movie will have people considering Stan too. I'd love to see Hugh Grant get in here for Heretic--maybe more than I want to see any other acting nomination, just for the novelty alone--but I know a pipe dream that wants to invite me into its creepy religion basement when I see one.
Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande-Wicked
Isabella Rossellini-Conclave
Jamie Lee Curtis-The Last Showgirl
Adriana Paz-Emilia Perez
Alternate: Danielle Deadwyler-The Piano Lesson
Doing something deeply stupid here. Everyone's talking about Emilia Perez getting dual supporting noms, and why not (other than the obvious)? But while everyone's looking at Selena Gomez, who's been taking heat for her performance, her Spanish, and the fact of her existence, I guess, I'm looking at Adriana Paz, who is wonderful and unsung. It probably won't happen, but it just might, so here we are. Hate leaving Deadwyler in sixth place for another year, but that's looking like her face. This is a weirdly volatile category, though--anyone beyond the first two slots is vulnerable. Look for Margaret Qualley/The Substance, Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown, and Felicity Jones/The Brutalist to make an appearance if their films surge, or Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor/Nickel Boys or Joan Chen/Didi for a surprise.
Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Guy Pearce-The Brutalist
Yura Borisov-Anora
Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Denzel Washington-Gladiator II
Alternate: Clarence Maclin-Sing Sing
Once again, a category with exactly one spot open and an absolute mud-wrestle to fill it. While I had sweet and calming dreams about Ridley Scott weeping on Oscar morning, throwing his little toys into the toilet while lamenting Gladiator II's complete and glorious Oscar snub, I can't deny that Denzel is one of the biggest living awards magnets; I think he resurrects his early season momentum and slides in. Maclin would be great to see, and could happen, but it's up in the air. Look for Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice as a likely challenger (is it dumb that I'm predicting Sebastian Stan getting in without Jeremy Strong? Probably). And not that I'm saying this *should* happen, but wouldn't it be a nice little treat for all of us if the Academy saw fit to honor Jonathan Bailey for being everyone's hot little dancing friend in Wicked?
Original Screenplay
Anora
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
The Substance
Civil War
Alternate: Challengers
Look, I have been sitting on a shocking Saturday Night screenplay nomination for months now, and it doesn't please me to lose my nerve any more than the prospect of watching Civil War pleases me. But I've decided to let go of one patented silly prediction in favor of another one. And realistically, no one knows who's going to get that fourth slot. Is it Challengers? Fun, but unlikely. Is it Hard Truths? Tiny, and not particularly well loved. All We Imagine as Light or The Seed of the Sacred Fig? Why haven't they been a bigger presence on the awards circuit thus far? September 5? I'm not even sure this movie exists--I've never seen anything about it in the real world apart from on Oscar blogs. Everyone's going to be throwing a dart in this category, and I'm throwing mine, with force and gusto, at Alex Garland.
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Sing Sing
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Alternate: Nosferatu
Feels like one of the most ironclad categories--does anything have the juice to break in here? Wicked or Dune or I'm Still Here if they're strong enough, but I'm not convinced they are. This feels like the final five; now watch me assert this with confidence and get it entirely wrong tomorrow.
Production Design
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Conclave
Alternate: A Complete Unknown
Kills me not to have A Complete Unknown in here, which feels like an obvious choice that we'll all be kicking ourselves about tomorrow, but I just couldn't make sense out of demoting any of the other five. Feels like another fairly congealed category? Gladiator, The Substance, or maybe something out of left field like Blitz or Furiosa as surprises, but the top five feels like the right five.
Costume Design
Wicked
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
The Substance
The Book of Clarence
Alternate: Conclave
Feels ridiculous not to have Gladiator II and Conclave in here, both almost certainly destined for a nomination, but sometimes I just want to kick a jar of gumballs onto a roller skating rink and enjoy a little anarchy. The Substance feels like the kind of sneaky-obvious pick for this category that everyone pretends they saw coming after the fact (the yellow jacket! that cinderella gown!), and The Book of Clarence is a dumb hunch that I've had ever since seeing the trailer a year ago, and I, like all fans of 1996's biggest animated hit, love my dumb hunches.
Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Better Man
Alien: Romulus
Alternate: Gladiator II
And while we're on the subject of following your silly gut feelings until they lead you into a dark well within which a wise goblin sage who refuses to tell you anything lives, why not add Alien here? It's had a stronger precursor showing in multiple categories than expected. I know that I shouldn't be blanking Gladiator in (almost) every category, but the thing about that is that I want to, and none of Ridley Scott's hired goons will arrive here to break my fingers before morning, and by then it'll be too late.
Makeup
Wicked
Nosferatu
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Alternate: Emilia Perez
Toyed with the idea of a surprise snub for both Dune and The Substance, but couldn't write myself a compelling enough argument for any of the other potential nominees. This category feels like a significant bellwether for Emilia Perez fans (or haters)--getting in here probably means that it's going to have a huge morning. I'd love to see the Sebastian Stan double feature The Apprentice and A Different Man get in--partly because they're worthy, but maybe more so because then the Oscar telecast would very briefly become a masterclass on gluing things to Sebastian Stan's face.
Film Editing
Dune: Part Two
Anora
Conclave
The Brutalist
Challengers
Alternate: Emilia Perez
Sticking my lonely flag into the tennis court to stand up for Challengers. Probably silly to think it makes it into this category that has been so dominated by best picture nominees (and winners) in recent years, but if Josh O'Connor can work up the courage to slap Mike Faist's turgid wiener, then so can I (metaphorically speaking). Otherwise, treat this category like you'd treat best picture: pick Perez, Wicked, The Substance, or A Complete Unknown if you're expecting them to surge.
Cinematography
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
Conclave
The Girl with the Needle
Alternate: Nickel Boys
Feels wrong not to have Nickel Boys--or A Complete Unknown, but for very different reasons--but when has this category ever been able to turn down a black and white movie? Hence Girl with the Needle sneaking into my predictions and then lying there like an ungainly doorstop, grumpily barring other, larger contenders from entering. I know I just said that Makeup would be a big category for Emilia Perez, but if it gets into this one (heaven forbid), then it could honestly break the record for the most nominations of all time. God, just wash that sentence around in your mouth a bit and try to swallow it.
Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
The Wild Robot
Challengers
Alternate: Nosferatu
Every time I type 'Emilia Perez,' twelve weeping polar bears get set adrift in a dark and uncaring sea, never to return to land. And I am far from done typing that, so those polar bears are gonna have to buckle up. This category feels simultaneously totally set and strangely volatile. It's hard to imagine any of the top five missing, but then again, it's hard to imagine Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door and Wicked missing, so there you go. I'll either go 5/5 in this category or 2/5--madness!
Sound
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
Gladiator II
Emilia Perez
Alternate: Blitz
And there go another twelve polar bears! Atypical to have such a musical-heavy category (three out of five of the movies are musicals or music-related), even in a category that's notoriously fond of a tune or two. I was tempted to toss Alien: Romulus in here as well, just to try and curry favor with my local xenomorph (or maybe to see if I could get that xenomorph to eat a few of the other nominees), but decided against it (bribing a xenomorph is wrong). I swear, if the Academy goes and nominates the Joker sequel in this category I am going to march right to Hollywood and start throwing bricks through every window I see.
Original Song
"El Mal"-Emilia Perez
"The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
"Mi Camino"-Emilia Perez
"Never Too Late"-Elton John: Never Too Late
"Sick in the Head"-Kneecap
Alternate: "Kiss the Sky"-The Wild Robot
That's right, I am eschewing the frontrunner hits from The Wild Robot, Challengers, Will and Harper, and Piece by Piece in favor of a song by that band that is perhaps most famous for doing a shit-ton of cocaine on stage. Everyone wins! God, I want a Kneecap performance at the Oscars so bad. I will make a dark deal with whatever eldritch entity Diane Warren has shackled, I will give that entity whatever it takes to get Kneecap throwing drugs out into the audience onto a deeply confused (but grateful) John Williams. Please universe/Diane Warren's shadow demon, please make this happen. And speaking of Diane Warren's unholy union with the darkness, everything looks good for her song, "The Journey"--the blood pact will be renewed, the old flesh shall die, long live the new flesh, tremble before the creeping darkness! Seriously though, who will stop Diane Warren.
(I realize that, without context, this paragraph is deeply unhinged. But I assure that, with context, it is somber and horrifying.)
Animated Film
The Wild Robot
Flow
Inside Out 2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Memoir of a Snail
Alternate: Moana 2
Very little intrigue here--these five nominees have been up for almost every prize in sight for the last three months, with nary a stray vote to any other movie to spoil their fun. Moana 2's the likeliest spoiler, but no one particularly liked Moana 2 (except for millions upon millions of ticket buyers).
International Film
Emilia Perez-France
I'm Still Here-Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig-Germany
Kneecap-Ireland
Flow-Latvia
Alternate-The Girl with the Needle-Denmark
Thankfully, this is Emilia Perez's last probably nomination (he says, gazing toward the horizon at hundreds of weeping polar bears, marooned to a dismal fate on the high seas). The top three are locked in, and the final two are up to a cage match between the movies listed above and Italy's Vermiglio. That said, this category throws frequent curveballs: should I be on the lookout for Palestine's From Ground Zero? Canada's Universal Language? Thailand's How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies? I'd expect a surprise somewhere.
Documentary Feature
No Other Land
Sugarcane
Daughters
Black Box Diaries
Porcelain War
Alternate: Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Year in and year out, this is the category I know the least about/struggle to care about the most. One of these years I'm gonna rectify that, but it certainly hasn't been this one, so behold! The darts I have thrown. Going with the traditional snub of the mainstream crowd-pleasing frontrunner (Will and Harper), but I do wonder if we shouldn't all be predicting a No Other Land snub as well. The movie's been controversial (due to, uh, being filmed in Palestine and all that that currently entails), and I could see politics keeping it out of the lineup, unfortunately.
And there you have it! For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
Emilia Perez-11
The Brutalist-9
Conclave-9
Dune: Part Two-8
Wicked-8
I have to admit that I don't feel exceptionally confident about a lot of these, but like I said at the beginning: it's a wacky year, so why not lean into the wackiness?
I know it's silly to spend this much time talking about potential Oscar nominations without talking about any of my own picks--and trust me, those are definitely the freight train at the end of the tunnel whose light you're seeing. I'm aiming for some time in mid-February, depending on what movies I can see/what happens in my life/whether or not I can fight off Ridley Scott's finger-breaking goons. But for now, I'll say that if I could guarantee any nominations, it would be for Challengers pretty much anywhere (but particularly in screenplay and score), though I would reeeeeaaally like to see a Hugh Grant/Heretic nomination. If I could prevent any nomination--well, I don't think it will come as a surprise to anyone that I do not count myself among Emilia Perez's biggest fans, so we'll skip those and say that Jamie Lee Curtis's upcoming Supporting Actress nomination is one that totally mystifies me, even as a lifelong fan.
And that's it! By this time tomorrow, all of these predictions will be meaningless, which is just the way I like it. I'm actually going to be away from my computer til Monday or Tuesday, so I won't be back tomorrow with my reactions (the shock! the horror! the madness!), but rest assured that I will return some time next week to unleash my particular flavor of Oscar silliness on the world.
