Oscar Reactions

I always feel so...let down after the Oscars. Y'know, insane, lifeless people like myself follow the Oscar Season all year round, and then they're done in three hours. Oh well. As far as this year is concerned, I must say that the awards were generally deserving and pleasing (with a few noticeable exceptions), and the show was mostly garbage. Seriously. The John Hughes tribute was great, but Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin never really hit their comedic stride. Most of their lines fell flat. The orchestra must have been on crack or something, because I've never seen them so quick to jump on a speech. Plus...That dance number. That stupid, stupid dance number. I can say with confidence that a man in a navy jacket doing the robot to the score for Up is the worst thing I've ever seen. And I've seen Transformers 2. I hated it. So, so much. Admittedly, some of the choreography was cool, but it was absolutely ridiculous in context and didn't fit the music at all. I mean, do we really need someone spinning on their head during clips from The Fantastic Mr. Fox? Adam Shankman, one of the show's producers and the choreographer of 'So You Think You Can Dance' should be ashamed of himself for so unabashedly shoe-horning his own career into a night that shouldn't be about him at all. But enough about the show. It wasn't good, we'll get over it. The important things are the awards. I predicted 17/24 correctly (22 if you count my alternates).

Picture-The Hurt Locker (predicted correctly)
I'm just so happy that this one. What a wonderfully atypical winner to finish off a decade of, frankly, lackluster winners in this category. It's quite rare for the Academy to give the top award to the best film of the year, but they did it this time, and for a politically ambivalent, action-fueled war movie as well. This is the first full-out war genre pic they've rewarded since Platoon in 1986.

Director-Kathyrn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (predicted correctly)
Yay Kathryn! Completely sidestepping the whole "first woman" deal, I'm glad that Ms. Bigelow won the Oscar because she's just a fantastic artist. She refuses to compromise her artistic sensibilities in the face of studio pressure or genre stereotypes. Good for her.

Actor-Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart (predicted correctly)
This is one of the awards I'm disappointed about. I know, I get it: Jeff Bridges is due. But honestly, this performance wasn't anything special, and the film it's in is just piss-poor. Jeremy Renner, Colin Firth, and George Clooney would all have been more deserving here. Oh well.

Actress-Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side (I predicted Gabourey Sidibe for Precious)
Sandra Bullock is wonderfully charismatic and likable, and that's probably why she won. It sure as hell wasn't on strength of performance. Yes, she's a comedian doing a dramatic role, but said role is bland and hardly three-dimensional in a film with very few redeeming qualities. I know I should have predicted this, but I couldn't do so without crying. So I went for Gabby; not because I thought it was correct, but because it was right, dammit.

Supporting Actor-Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds (predicted correctly)
This award has been his to lose since Cannes in May. And he wasn't going to lose. Not up against such weak competition.

Supporting Actress-Mo'Nique, Precious (predicted correctly)
If Mo'Nique had lost, I would have driven to Hollywood and killed everyone, as this is easily one of the best performances of the decade.

Original Screenplay-The Hurt Locker (predicted correctly)
Inglourious Basterds is showier, but I admire Mark Boal's taut, suspenseful script that gets its ideas across without any overt moralizing.

Adapted Screenplay-Precious (I predicted Up in the Air)
This was easily the biggest surprise of the night. But kudos to Geoffrey Fletcher: Push can't have been an easy book to adapt, and he did it with style and heart.

Art Direction-Avatar (predicted correctly)
Of course it won. They designed an entirely new world, for goodness sake.

Costume Design-The Young Victoria (predicted correctly)
I'm kind of sick of the Academy's royalty fetish. They haven't given this award to anything other than an Elizabethan/Victorian era European Monarchy Movie since 2005. Grow an imagination, people.

Visual Effects-Avatar (predicted correctly)
Commentary not needed. This is the most deserving award of the night.

Makeup-Star Trek (predicted correctly)
I loved Star Trek's creature effects. Thank goodness this won over The Young Victoria. Seriously, even watching their little nomination featurette, I couldn't figure out what makeup made that movie awards-worthy. I could do that makeup.

Film Editing-The Hurt Locker (predicted correctly)
The Hurt Locker dominated the technical awards, and this one was very deserving. The Hurt Locker was shot in a Super-16 format, which means that four cameras shot it simultaneously. This left the editors with over 400 hours of footage, and they sifted through all that and created something fast-moving, suspenseful, and breathlessly entertaining. Bravo!

Cinematography-Avatar (predicted correctly)
Some people will complain about the CG imagery, but someone still had to plan and shoot that. Plus, they invented an entirely new camera just to make this movie, which deserves the award in and of itself. Doesn't hurt that the movie looks beautiful, either.

Original Score-Up (predicted correctly)
I love Michael Giacchino's score for this movie, and it was easily the most important to its film success of all the nominees. Plus, any win for Pixar is welcome in my book.

Sound Mixing-The Hurt Locker (I predicted Avatar)
More than a little surprised here. The Hurt Locker's sound design is complex and nuanced, but Avatar is big and loud, and the Academy normally loves big and loud. Chalk this one up to more love for The Hurt Locker than Avatar.

Sound Effects Editing-The Hurt Locker (I predicted Avatar)
Doubly surprised here. Hurt Locker has an impressive soundscape, but the Avatar folks created an entire new world of sound. Perhaps the voters, like myself, noticed the re-used sounds from Jurassic Park (the T-Rex sounds an awful lot like the thanator, and the raptors sound a lot like the horses whose name I forgot), and that put them off.

Original Song-"The Weary Kind"-Crazy Heart (predicted correctly)
I suppose I can't complain. It's a good-enough song.

Animated Film-Up (predicted correctly)
Pixar continues their winning streak, then. Fun fact: since the inception of this award in 2001, the only Pixar films to lose this have been Monsters, Inc. and Cars, which lost to Shrek and Happy Feet, respectively. They've taken this award 4 times out of 9 times. Not a bad track record.

Foreign Language Film-The Secrets of Their Eyes-Argentina (predicted correctly)
Once again, the Academy chooses the big, dramatic, obvious, easy movie over the challenging one. Michael Haneke goes home empty-handed. I hate this.

Documentary Feature-The Cove (predicted correctly)
I haven't seen any of the nominees, but I like watching dolphins getting slaughtered as much as the next guy, I suppose.

Documentary Short Subject-Music By Prudence (I predicted China's Unnatural Disaster)
I should have seen this coming. This branch loves heart-warming, inspirational tales, and this story of a poor, developmentally-challenged girl becoming a singer fits that bill to a T.

Live Action Short-The New Tenants (I predicted The Door)
Man, I sucked on the shorts. I'm surprised they went for gritty over classy here.

Animated Short-Logorama (I predicted A Matter of Loaf and Death)
Also surprised here, but thrilled that they went for the clever, inventive Logorama over the incredibly safe territory of A Matter of Loaf and Death.

Well, there we have it. The only winners that weren't my first or alternate choice were Music by Prudence (my first two choices were China's Unnatural Disaster and The Last Truck) and The New Tenants (my first two choices were The Door and Kavi). Not too bad, I suppose.

What do y'all think of the winners? Surprises? Regrets?
Fun fact: this was my 12-year-old sister's first year at attempting Oscar predictions, and she guessed 15/24 correctly. She missed all three shorts, like myself, Actor (she was predicting an upset for Jeremy Renner), both Screenplays (she went with Basterds and Up in the Air, which was where the smart money was, so it's not her fault), cinematography (her love for Harry Potter kept her from being objective), sound effects editing (like everyone else on Earth, she predicted Avatar), and Foreign Language Film (she optimistically went for The White Ribbon). Not too bad, considering she hasn't really followed the season. She also called The Hurt Locker winning at least one sound award, which impressed me, and had Music by Prudence as her alternate choice. Not bad, kid.

Oscar Winner Predictions, Part 3: Tech Awards

Last day of winner predictions. I'll try to keep the commentary brief, as there are more than a few tech awards to get through. So here we go!

Best Art Direction
The nominees:
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

It's hard to argue against Avatar here. They created an entire world out of scratch. Sherlock Holmes did win at the Art Directors Guild, however, and Nine is a traditional sort of winner. Still, I can't see anyone taking Avatar down.
Winner: Avatar
Alterante: Sherlock Holmes
Dark Horse: Nine

Costume Design
The nominees:
Bright Star
Coco Avant Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

The Academy loves their period royalty, as evidenced by the winners for the past three years in a row (The Duchess, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Marie Antoinette). That makes this category The Young Victoria's to lose. Nine is awfully flashy, and Bright Star has a devoted fanbase.
Winner: The Young Victoria
Alternate: Nine
Dark Horse: Bright Star

Visual Effects
The nominees:
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

No need for commentary.
Winner: Avatar
Alternate: District 9
Dark Horse: Star Trek

Makeup
The nominees:
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

Star Trek has this in the bag. The other two nominees, frankly, aren't well-liked enough to pull an upset over one of the biggest hits of the year.
Winner: Star Trek
Alternate: The Young Victoria
Dark Horse: Il Divo

Film Editing
The nominees:
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

This category is both incredibly important and quite difficult to call. Whoever wins this has a very good chance of winning Best Picture. That said, I'm defaulting to The Hurt Locker. Avatar is a real threat however, as the Academy loves to reward action movies here. Inglourious Basterds could also sneak in if the film has more support than I think it does.
Winner: The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Avatar
Dark Horse: Inglourious Basterds

Cinematography
The nominees:
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

This category is infuriating, in that every nominee has a potential case to win. Avatar is gorgeous, and people may be looking to check it off across the tech board, but it's also possible that people will react negatively to its largely computer-generated world. The Hurt Locker is the Best Picture front-runner, and is a technical masterpiece, but could be too gritty, as voters prefer postcard-pretty films here. Inglourious Basterds is a very formal, classically made film with iconic images, but could have trouble pushing past the others. The White Ribbon is pretty and black-and-white, which doesn't hurt, but arguably the least seen film of the bunch. And Harry Potter could be considered one of the most stereotypically pretty films in the group, but, let's be honest, it's a Harry Potter movie. They have yet to win an Oscar, and, if they do, I don't know if it will be in a more 'prestigious' tech category like this one. Like film editing, this category will be a good barometer for which film has Academy support on Sunday night.
Winner: Avatar
Alternate: The Hurt Locker
Dark Horse: Inglourious Basterds

Original Score
The nominees:
Avatar
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

This one's easier. Michael Giacchino, who scored Up, has won most every prize out there. Plus, his contributions to Up are, arguably, more instrumental (pardon the pun), to his film's success than any of the other composers. Avatar could pull a win here, but James Horner's already got an Oscar; they might not want to reward him again just yet.
Winner: Up
Alternate: Avatar
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

This is between two movies: Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Plenty of bloggers have been arguing for a split of the sound categories, tossing this one to The Hurt Locker's complicated, tense mix, but I'm not buying it. Avatar is nothing if not a technical marvel, and I can't imagine Academy voters are going to be voting against it in any of the effects-driven categories.
Winner: Avatar
Alternate: The Hurt Locker
Dark Horse: Star Trek

Sound Effects Editing
The nominees:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

Same argument as before.
Winner: Avatar
Alternate: The Hurt Locker
Dark Horse: Star Trek

Original Song
The nominees:
"The Weary Kind"-Crazy Heart
"Take it All"-Nine
"Loin de Paname"-Paris 36
"Almost There"-The Princess and the Frog
"Down in New Orleans"-The Princess and the Frog

Another easy category. People love Crazy Heart's songs, for whatever reason. Plus, none of these others are viable contenders: the Princess songs will cancel each other out, Nine was almost universally hated and had terrible new songs, and no one's even heard of Paris 36, much less think "Loin de Paname" is a chart-topper. This goes to Crazy Heart.
Winner: "The Weary Kind"-Crazy Heart
Alternate: "Take it All"-Nine
Dark Horse: "Almost There"-The Princess and the Frog


Well, there we have it. For those of you counting at home, the films with the most wins are as follows:
1. Avatar-5
2. The Hurt Locker-4
3. Precious-2
4. Crazy Heart-2
5. Up-2

We'll see Sunday how wrong I am. In the meantime, how about you? Any predictions before the weekend?

Oscar Winner Predictions Part 2: Acting/Screenplays

Welcome back, sofa monkeys! Today we'll look at the acting and writing categories: two places where I probably won't have the balls to call the upsets that I should. Oh well. C'est la vie.

Best Actor
The nominees:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

This one's just about a done deal, and it breaks my heart. Jeff Bridges has won everything in sight (seriously, he just won your computer), and there's no signs of slowing. Some brave, hopeful people have suggested that Jeremy Renner might surprise us all and take this one come Oscar night, but, as much as I'd like to see it, it's just not going to happen.
Winner: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Alternate: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Dark Horse: George Clooney, Up in the Air

Best Actress
The Nominees:
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sibide, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

I really, really wish I had the cojones to predict Gabourey Sidibe here. Precious showed up on nomination morning with more support than anticipated (editing nomination? Really?), which could work in Sidibe's favor. People will be remembering Mo'Nique come ballot time, and perhaps they'll remember Gabby as well. Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep are neck-and-neck here. Either one could take it, and, as a result of their close competition, someone else could slip through. Actually, you know what? I'm gonna go with Sidibe here. Screw it.
Winner: Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Alternate: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Dark Horse: Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

A few sad, lonely bloggers are trying to convince me that Christopher Plummer will ride the whole "Dear Lord, he's 80, let's give him an Oscar before he hits the ground" thing to a win, but they just want someone to talk to. This is Waltz's. Plain and simple.
Winner: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Alternate: Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Dark Horse: Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious

I'm not even going to dignify this with discussion.
Winner: Mo'Nique, Precious
Alternate: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Dark Horse: Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Best Original Screenplay
The nominees:
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

Here's another maddeningly tight race. The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds stand about equal chances of winning. The Hurt Locker is the Best Picture frontrunner, but people really love Tarantino when he writes. I'd say that a third film might sneak in and grab the prize while the other two are fighting, but I honestly can't imagine any of the other nominees getting enough votes to do that.
Winner: The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Inglourious Basterds
Dark Horse: Up

Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

This screenplay race, on the other hand, is just jaw-droppingly obvious. Up in the Air used to be the film to beat for Best Picture. Now it's getting a consolation prize.
Winner: Up in the Air
Alternate: Precious
Dark Horse: District 9

There we have it. Tomorrow I'll wrap this up. Sunday I'll post my 'final' predictions. I'll wrap up the Oscars later, and then we can get back to content that people might want to read. Super!

Oscar Winner Predictions, Part 1: Picture/Director/Other Bests

The Oscars are this Sunday: the madness is almost over. I've got a slew of fascinating, insightful content ready to release into the blogosphere when the Oscars are over (I'll avoid spoilers, but I'm throwing together some pieces on a recent film obsession, a director whose short filmography deserves analysis, contrasting two very disturbed Europeans, and looking at a trilogy that, to this day, still haunts my nightmares). Until then, it's predictions ho! I'll start my three-part winner analysis today with Picture, Director, and the other categories you probably don't care about (foreign film, animated film, documentary short, etc.). Tomorrow, I'll cover acting and screenplay, and Friday we'll hit the tech awards. Sunday afternoon, I'll post my FINAL predictions (in case, y'know, I change my mind about them within the next three days, which is totally possible). For now, make due with these:

Best Picture
The nominees:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Let's take a moment to dispel a commonly-held misconception. This is not only a two-horse race. Sure, The Hurt Locker has won the notable precursors, like the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Writers Guild, and Avatar won the Golden Globe, plus made enough money to sink a well-sized cruise ship. That doesn't mean the others are ruled out. Bear in mind that this year, the winner will be determined by a preferential ballot system, which is to say that the film with the most #1 votes doesn't necessarily win. The film that's most well-liked does. So let's take a look at who benefits from that the most. Inglourious Basterds did win the SAG ensemble award, and actors are the largest branch of the Academy. Plus, it's been seen by most everyone, which is certainly beneficial. It's mix of historical revisionism and violence can be a bit polarizing, however. Up and Up in the Air are more likely to get highly placed on most ballots, though they probably won't grab many #1 spots. Avatar will get plenty of top billings, but will also find itself on the bottom half of a fair few ballots. You either love it or you hate it. Doesn't seem to be much of a middle ground. Which brings us to The Hurt Locker. It's going to receive a fair majority of the #1 votes, and no one actively dislikes this movie, so if it doesn't get the #1 spot, it won't be too far away from it.
Winner: The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Avatar
Dark Horse: Inglourious Basterds

Best Director
The nominees:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

I think we can all agree that Lee Daniels and Jason Reitman are out. Their films were perfectly fine, but they're both too young, not showy enough, and are being eclipsed by bigger names. The safe choice here is Kathryn Bigelow. Academy voters are looking for a historic moment, and she'll be the first woman to win. Cameron is a possibility, but, simply put, he's kind of a dick and the Oscars are a popularity contest as much as anything else. I've heard whispers of Quentin Tarantino pulling an upset, and he does have Harvey Weinstein behind him, which one can't underestimate, but I'm not buying it. This one is Bigelow's.
Winner: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Alternate: James Cameron, Avatar
Dark Horse: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
Ajami-Israel
The Milk of Sorrow-Peru
A Prophet-France
The Secrets of Her Eyes-Argentina
The White Ribbon-Germany

At first glance, this seems like an easier choice. A Prophet and The White Ribbon have been huge critical successes that have battled for the top spot since Cannes in May. But let's take a moment to remember that this is the Academy: you know, the organization that awarded Departures last year over Waltz With Bashir and The Class. Oscar loves emotionally uplifting, obvious, dramatically satisfying, easy movies. A Prophet is a prison epic surrounding the life of a Muslim convict, and The White Ribbon is a surgical, casually horrific WWI fable. Neither are easy, uplifting, or overly emotional. Of the other nominees, The Milk of Sorrow is a classically made film about defective breast-milk, and Ajami is a lived-in, docudrama about Israeli-Palestinian ties. The Milk of Sorrow is out. Ajami has the prestige, but Oscar doesn't like their winners here to feel too improvised or gritty, and apparently Ajami is both. That leaves The Secrets of Her Eyes, which, allegedly, completely fits the Academy bill here. I know I should probably be predicting The White Ribbon, but I'm not going to. The Academy loves bland here, and that's what they'll go for.
Winner: The Secrets of Her Eyes-Argentina
Alternate: The White Ribbon-Germany
Dark Horse: A Prophet-France

Best Animated Film
The nominees:
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

This one's fairly obvious. Only one of these films landed a best picture nomination. I've heard people say that The Fantastic Mr. Fox can pull an upset, or The Secret of Kells has lots of underground support, based on the fact that it got nominated. Too few people have seen it, however, and Wes Anderson's style turns too many people off. Plus, Pixar pretty much owns this category. They don't like losing here, and they don't do it very often.
Winner: Up
Alternate: The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Dark Horse: Coraline

(now for the categories you all know and love!)

Best Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America
Which Way Home

Another easy one. The Cove has steamrollered through awards season, taking every prize it can lay its flippers on. Food Inc. is good enough, but lacks the emotional punch the Academy loves here. Which Way Home has that punch, but it's too late to rally for an upset. Burma VJ is a feat of film-making, but Oscar hates feats of film-making.
Winner: The Cove
Alternate: Food, Inc.
Dark Horse: Which Way Home

Best Documentary Short Subject
The nominees:
China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of the Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: The Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin

I'm going against the crowd here. Most pundits agree that The Last Truck taps into the Zeitgeist in a particularly American way. True. Something makes me favor China's Unnatural Disaster, however. Call it a hunch. Music by Prudence is sweet, Rabbit a la Berlin is technically innovative, and The Last Campaign... features an old fellow who'd like to die, but I really think it's between the first two.
Winner: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of the Sichuan Province
Alternate: The Last Truck: The Closing of a GM Plant
Dark Horse: Music by Prudence

Best Live Action Short
The nominees:
The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tennants

It's hard for me to comment here, as I've only seen half of one of these. Instead of Abracadabra is too lightweight, The New Tennants is too profane and bizarre. The Door is allegedly a technical and visual accomplishment, which the Academy favors here. Kavi is about Indian children, which Oscar has loved in recent years. Miracle Fish, the only one I've viewed (part-way), is good, but a little too strange for Academy tastes.
Winner: The Door
Alternate: Kavi
Dark Horse: Miracle Fish

Animated Short
The nominees:
French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death

Part of me really wants to go with Logorama here, but I'm hesitant. It's a little...hardcore to be an Academy Award Winner for Animated Short. Plus, Oscar really, really loves Wallace and Gromit. The only time they've lost is when they had to compete with themselves. Sadly, my favorite of the bunch, The Lady and the Reaper, will probably go unnoticed.
Winner: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Alternate: Logorama
Dark Horse: The Lady and the Reaper

That's it for now. Check back in tomorrow when I resume with categories that you knew existed! Yay!

This Year's Oscar-Nominated Animated Shorts

Dear Lord, it's been a long time since I've been on here, hasn't it? Apologies. First social life, then travelling intervened. For today, I'd like to offer up a fantastic little opportunity. Brace yourself, readers: the link below will allow you to view 4 of the 5 2009 Oscar-nominated short films.

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/movie-review-animated-oscar-nominated-short-films-2010

Oh hell yes. Sadly, one of the films has been yanked off the Internet since I saw it. Such is life. Anyhow, take a moment to watch a few of these. Watching all of them back-to-back takes less than an hour, so if you've got a little time to kill, go crazy. If you don't feel like watching all of them, I'm going to take a brief look at each one below; scan through, see what sounds good, and watch one or two.

In order of their video appearance:

Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (6:06 minutes)
This is, far and away, my least favorite short. In the film, the titular Granny tells her granddaughter the timeless tale of Sleeping Beauty, with a few embellishments and twists of her own to make the story fit into her world-view. The film has a fantastic premise (re-imagining fairy-tales from a decidedly cynical perspective), but fails to capitalize on that promise. There are amusing moments (I did giggle at the rather literal birth sequence, as well as the visual realization of 'the old fairy), but they never add up to a compelling whole. That this was nominated over other, superior shorts like The Cat Piano and Partly Cloudy is somewhat depressing. Oh well. It's only six minutes, so check it out anyway.

French Roast (8:17 minutes)
This tale of an uptight business-man in a cafe who realizes he's forgotten his wallet is a fantastic example of the storytelling potential of animation as a medium, as well as a showcase for stories told without dialogue. French Roast is entertaining, funny, and never over-stays its welcome. It might be a little too light-weight to win this category, but it's thoroughly enjoyable.

The Lady and the Reaper (8:20 minutes)
What a great little film. The Lady and the Reaper tells the tale of an old woman who is approached by Death: she tries to accompany him to the Other Side, but is thwarted at every turn by the efforts of an ER doctor straight out of a soap opera, accompanied by his three buxom nurses. The Lady and the Reaper is another film without dialogue, yet its silent style never hurts the film, which is visually inventive and full of (very) dark humor. The ending is a quite the shocker. Bonus points: make sure you watch through the first few credits. About thirty seconds in, we get a vision of Charon and the River Styx that's absolutely priceless.

Logorama (16:04 minutes)
Sadly, this one can no longer be found on the Internet. Too bad, because it's one hell of a short. The visual concept is rather brilliant: the entire film is comprised entirely of corporate logos. The main characters are two Pringles cans, a Michelin Man, and Ronald McDonald (whose crime spree is all too believable). The film is profane, violent (Mr. Peanut loses his head to a sniper battle), and cynical. I'll let you know if I can find this one to watch anywhere else, because it's completely worth the time.

Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death (29:00 minutes)
I suppose I ought to just say it: I'm not a huge fan of Wallace and Gromit. I love the stop-motion animation, and it's all amusing enough, but I find it curiously lacking. Almost soulless. In this outing, Wallace and Gromit run a bakery, and are forced to pit their wits against a serial-killer who has been systematically knocking off other bakers in the area. The film isn't without its charms, but the constant film references took me out of the moment. Seriously, why do we need an Aliens homage, as well as references to Batman, Ghost, Psycho, The Blues Brothers, and The Empire Strikes Back in a film about a bakery? Cinematic in-jokes can be fun in moderation. Throw too many in, and you just look desperate.

Were I pressed to order the shorts according to my preference, it would be as follows:
1. The Lady and the Reaper
2. Logorama
3. French Roast
4. Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death
5. Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty

This is, of course, not ordered according to the likelihood of their win. I'll get into that later this week, but suffice to say that the Academy loves Wallace and Gromit. Did you catch any of these? If so, which did you like best?

Best Directors: 2009

I'm going to apologize in advance for my blogging laziness. Going into this, I had grand notions of intricate posts full of cinematic wisdom. Then, as usual, reality intervened, and instead of getting The Alien trilogy interpreted as a treatise on an evolving cinemascape, or the effects of the Hays Code on Rebel Without a Cause, I'm just going to talk about directors for a little while; specifically, the five directors nominated for this years Best Director Oscar. So, I suppose you can consider this part of my continuing Oscar miniseries. I'll let you know who they are, what they've done, what I think of them, and why their achievements this year merit awards consideration. So, here we go, in alphabetical order:

Kathryn Bigelow
Films (in bold are the ones I've seen):
The Hurt Locker
K 19: The Widowmaker
The Weight of Water
Strange Days
Point Break
Blue Steel
Near Dark
Breakdown

What I think:
I honestly wasn't overly familiar with Ms. Bigelow before The Hurt Locker. I was aware of her, mainly due to her relative fame as a female director of stereotypically 'male' movies. Most of her films operate within a genre (usually action or horror), though they tend to subvert the cliches inherent to their specific fields. For me, watching The Hurt Locker was a complete revelation: it was almost shameful that I was hitherto unaware of such unadulterated talent. Obviously, I can't speak on Ms. Bigelow too well, as I've only seen one other of her films, but that one (Near Dark) is very much worth seeing. Near Dark poses as a vampire movie, while quietly sneaking away to play in the Western playground. Her take on the cowboy-mainstreet-shootout trope is absolutely priceless (hint: it involves a Semi and a flaming Bill Paxton with razor-sharp spurs).

Why she deserves the nomination:
The Hurt Locker is one of the most effortlessly tense and draining films I've seen in a while, and a large part of that is due to Bigelow's stylistic sensibilities and unbeatable sense of pacing. Plus, in the middle of all the action, she draws forth virtuoso performances from her three leads (Jeremy Renner, Anthony Mackie, Brian Geraghty), and never allows the story elements to be usurped by the action set-pieces. She doesn't just deserve the nomination: she deserves to win.

James Cameron
Films:
Avatar
Titanic
True Lies
Terminator 2: Judgement Day
The Abyss
Aliens
The Terminator
Piranha 2: The Spawning

What I think:
It seems like I spend at least half of my life defending James Cameron these days. So, let me put it this way: he's not a great director. His movies can be hackneyed and cliched. He prioritizes concept and visual conceit over emotional substance and nuance. That being said, he's been redefining the medium of film since 1986. The man may be arrogant, but his arrogance has led to some of the most awe-inspiringly insane movie stories of the past 30 years (seriously, if you haven't seen any of the making-of footage for Titanic, youtube that crap: he literally rebuilt the friggin' Titanic. That's a big ship). In his later years, his writing has become dreadfully sub-par (though the scripts for Terminator 2 and Aliens are, in my opinion, tightly wound and proficient enough), but he has yet to sacrifice his artistic notions for easier work, and that endears him to me like crazy.

Why he deserves the nomination:
Avatar may not reinvent the story-telling wheel, but it does redefine what is possible for movies to show, and I respect that. Keeping a film of this size on the tracks and managing to make it both understandable and entertaining is one hell of an achievement. Plus, he's one of the most hands-on directors working: youtube footage of Cameron running through sound-stages, steadicam belted on, and see what I mean.

Lee Daniels
Films:
Precious
Shadowboxer

What I think:
I really don't have anything intelligent to say here, as I think it's just about impossible to speak on a director having seen only one of their films. I thought Precious was competently directed, even if it strayed into overly stylistic territory at times. Not that there's anything wrong with style: the film just felt as if it were trying too hard to be a 'director's movie."

Why he deserves the nomination:
Anyone who can coax such amazing performances out of a debut performance (Gabourey Sidibe) or a BET talk-show host (Mo'Nique) deserves some recognition.

Jason Reitman
Films:
Up in the Air
Juno
Thank You For Smoking

What I think:
Jason Reitman is solid. I can't say it any better than that. He's a very meat-and-potatoes sort of director: he gets the story told without unnecessary flourishes, and that's admirable. His films are always smart, quickly paced, and sharp as a tack. My one qualm would be that, every now and again, he seems to be trying to hard to be quirky. It could be the material he tackles, it could be the actors, but I can't help but think that Reitman embraces his 'indie director' a little too tightly. That's a tiny complaint, however: he's on a three-for-three role, here, and has yet to make a bad film.

Why he deserves the nomination:
Up in the Air is almost minimalist in its spare storytelling style. Reitman effortlessly evokes the life of a man with nothing to tie him down while subtly introducing contemporary relevant themes, and never tipping the balance of comedy and drama.

Quentin Tarantino
Films:
Inglorious Basterds
Death-Proof
Kill Bill
Jackie Brown
Pulp Fiction
Reservoir Dogs

What I think:
I think it's embarrassing that I haven't seen Jackie Brown. I'll try to get on that. Quentin Tarantino is an auteur by any definition. His films are completely distinctive, unique pieces that both embrace and subvert the genres in which they occur. Think about it: Pulp Fiction is technically a gangster/crime movie, Kill Bill is technically a kung-fu movie, and Inglorious Basterds is technically a WWII movie. But none of them really feel like it, do they? Tarantino's visual style is endlessly inventive and wickedly, maniacally gleeful. No other director working today can use violence as a comedic punchline the way Tarantino can. He's easily my favorite director on this list.

Why he deserves the nomination:
Well, he's Quentin Tarantino, for starters. All levity aside, Inglorious Basterds is fresh, witty, and hugely entertaining, as well as dark, gruesome, and incredibly tense. It's a completely unique vision that deserves a reward.



Can I just take a moment to point out how diverse this lineup is? Normally, Oscar nominates five middle-aged white men. But this year, we have:
-a woman, only the fourth in Academy history, after Lena Wurtmuller (Seven Beauties), Jane Campion (The Piano), and Sophia Coppola (Lost in Translation)
-a black man, only the second in Academy history (after John Singleton (Boyz in da Hood). That's right, Spike Lee has never been nominated. Not even for Do the Right Thing.)
-a young man: Reitman is only 32. Fewer than ten directors have been younger than he is for their nominations.
-a gay man (Lee Daniels). Though this is one of the Academy's more welcome minorities, it's still relatively rare. Famous out directors who have scored with the Academy include Pedro Almodovar (Hable Con Ella), Steven Daldry (Billy Elliot, The Hours, The Reader), Gus Van Sant (Good Will Hunting, Milk), Rob Marshall (Nine), Franco Zefferelli (Romeo and Juliet), and John Schlesinger (Midnight Cowboy)
-a Canadian (James Cameron). I'd insert a Canadian joke here, but there are quite a few Canadian directors worth their salt (Atom Egoyan and Sarah Polley are the first that come to mind, but there are others. I just haven't done the research on this one).

Honestly, not a bad slate. If I had a ballot, it wouldn't look like this (I'd leave off two of these directors for two different ones. Who gets left off is a mystery we won't solve until my Best of '09 post comes out...Which is late, I know, but I'm still missing some movies), but I can't complain. At least Clint Eastwood didn't make it on here, right?


What do you think? How familiar with these directors are you, and do they deserve to get the nominations? Which directors do you think got left out this year?

Oscar Nominations: For Better or Worse

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have spoken, and their awards have arrived. Here are the nominees (asterisks next to the ones I predicted)

Best Picture
Avatar*
The Blind Side
District 9*
An Eduation*
The Hurt Locker*
Inglorious Basterds*
Precious*
A Serious Man*
Up*
Up in the Air*
...The Blind Side? Really? Come on. I hate this game. Though, I guess I can't complain otherwise. Not the 10 I would have nominated, but solid enough (except for The Blind Side).
Early winner prediction: The Hurt Locker

Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker*
James Cameron, Avatar*
Lee Daniels, Precious*
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air*
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
5/5. Not too bad. Not a bad slate either. I'm not so fond of Lee Daniels' work, but it's not terrible. At least it's not Clint Eastwood.
Early Winner Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart*
George Clooney, Up in the Air*
Colin Firth, A Single Man*
Morgan Freeman, Invictus*
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker*
Not at all thrilled to see Morgan Freeman's soulless performance here, but I am thrilled that Jeremy Renner got in.
Early Winner Prediction: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side*
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education*
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious*
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia*
With The Blind Side's best picture nomination, I (very reluctantly) have to admit that this is Mrs. Bullock's category now. Crap.
Early Winner Prediction: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger*
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station*
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones*
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds*
Not my favorite category. I haven't seen The Messenger or The Last Station, but Damon and Tucci's performances did nothing for me. Luckily, none of them will win.
Early Winner Prediction: Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air*
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air*
Mo'Nique, Precious*
I love Gyllenhaal and Cruz, but not in these roles. Really, voters? Oh well.
Early Winner Prediction: Mo'Nique, Precious

Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker*
Inglorious Basterds*
The Messenger
A Serious Man*
Up*
Sad to see (500) Days of Summer left out, but glad that The Messenger is getting some attention.
Early Winner Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Adapted Screenplay
District 9*
An Education*
In the Loop
Precious*
Up in the Air*
Pleasantly surprised to see Crazy Heart left out here. Now, if only Hollywood Video would get a copy of In the Loop...
Early Winner Prediction: Up in the Air

Art Direction
Avatar*
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes*
The Young Victoria
Where the hell is Inglorious Basterds? What are Nine and The Young Victoria doing here? This category is disappointing. There were much better-designed films out there, though I'm happy Avatar showed up, and Sherlock Holmes and Imaginarium are good enough, I suppose.
Early Winner Prediction: Avatar

Costume Design
Bright Star*
Coco Avant Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine*
The Young Victoria*
Again, where the hell is Inglorious Basterds? The costumes in that movie were friggin' amazing. I'm happy to see Imaginarium show up here, though annoyed by The Young Victoria's success; the costumes were competent enough, but boring. I haven't seen Bright Star or Coco Avant Chanel (yet), so I can't complain here.
Early Winner Prediction: The Young Victoria

Visual Effects
Avatar*
District 9*
Star Trek*
No complaints. These were the best three options.
Early Winner Prediction: Avatar

Makeup
Il Divo
Star Trek*
The Young Victoria
This was weird. I haven't seen Il Divo, but I don't understand how The Young Victoria got in here. Yes, the hair was nice. But what about District 9? The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus? The Road? Oh well.
Early Winner Prediction: Star Trek

Film Editing
Avatar*
District 9*
The Hurt Locker*
Inglorious Basterds*
Precious
It's interesting to note that Up in the Air didn't score here. Best Picture winners almost always have editing nominations. It's safe to say that Up in the Air has almost no chance to win picture now.
Early Winner Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Cinematography
Avatar*
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker*
Inglorious Basterds*
The White Ribbon*
It's fun to see Harry Potter here; the sixth installment was easily the prettiest. Also good to see Avatar. I'm disappointed that A Single Man didn't make the cut, but Nine didn't either, so that's something.
Early Winner Prediction: Avatar

Original Score
Avatar*
The Fantastic Mr. Fox*
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up*
Can't really complain on this category. I wish A Single Man had made it, but there's nothing wrong with any of these nominees.
Early Winner Prediction: Up

Sound Mixing
Avatar*
The Hurt Locker*
Inglorious Basterds*
Star Trek*
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
How Transformers got in over District 9 is a mystery to me.
Early Winner Prediction: Avatar

Sound Effects Editing
Avatar*
The Hurt Locker*
Inglorious Basterds
Star Trek*
Up*
If I were to honor Transformers in any category, it would have been this one. Still, can't say I'm sad to see it lose.
Early Winner Prediction: Avatar

Original Song
"Almost There"-The Princess and the Frog*
"Down in New Orleans"-The Princess and the Frog
"Loin de Paname"-Paris 36
"Take it All"-Nine
"The Weary Kind"-Crazy Heart*
I've never even heard of Paris 36, and I hated all the new songs from Nine. Where is Avatar's power ballad? Sure it was a bad song, but it was a POWER BALLAD.
Early Winner Prediction: "The Weary Kind"-Crazy Heart

Animated Film
Coraline*
The Fantastic Mr. Fox*
The Princess and the Frog*
The Secret of Kells
Up*
Where did The Secret of Kells come from? That was a bolt from the blue.
Early Winner Prediction: Up

Foreign Language Film
Ajami-Israel*
The Milk of Sorrow-Peru
A Prophet-France*
The Secrets of Her Eyes-Argentina
The White Ribbon-Germany*
Glad to see The White Ribbon made it. Also fun to see two South American films, as well as Israel's third consecutive nomination in this category. They've sure hit their cinematic stride of late.
Early Winner Prediction: The White Ribbon-Germany

Documentary Feature
Burma VJ
The Cove*
Food, Inc.*
The Most Dangerous Man in America
Which Way Home
I really can't speak on these intelligently. I still haven't seen any of them.

Well, there you have it. For those counting at home, the most nominated films are:
1. The Hurt Locker-9
2. Avatar-9
3. Inglorious Basterds-8
4. Up in the Air-6
5. Precious-6
6. Up-5
7. District 9-4
8. Nine-4
9. Star Trek-4
10. An Education-3

Thoughts? Reactions? Disappointments? Let me know.

This is it: Final Oscar Predictions

For real, this time. Really. No more changes from here on out. Here, set in stone, forever and ever amen, are my Oscar Predictions for 2009, which will be rendered completely irrelevant in less than twelve hours. Why I spend so much time on these, I don't know. I'll try to spare the commentary, but I'll just say a few things here: I've gone crazy, and am predicting big hauls for all three critically acclaimed sci-fi films this year (Avatar, Star Trek, District 9). The likelihood of all three of these making it into Best Picture is very slim; Invictus or (gasp) The Blind Side are more likely. I didn't have the balls to predict a Last Station snub in all categories, but I came close. I also am over-predicting Inglorious Basterds, but hey, predictions are supposed to be fun. I'm aiming for out-on-a-limb here, not complete accuracy. So, here we go. Join me again tomorrow to see all the places I went wrong. All predictions are in order of likelihood.

Best Picture
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Inglorious Basterds
Up in the Air
Precious
An Education
Up
A Serious Man
District 9
Star Trek
or: Invictus, The Blind Side

Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
or: Neil Blomkamp, District 9, Clint Eastwood, Invictus

Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
or: Sharlto Copley, District 9, Viggo Mortensen, The Road

Actress
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Melanie Laurent, Inglorious Basterds
or: Helen Mirren, The Last Station, Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
or: Alfred Molina, An Education, Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Diane Kruger, Inglorious Basterds
or: Julianne Moore, A Single Man, Penelope Cruz, Nine

Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
(500) Days of Summer
or: Avatar, The Hangover

Adapted Screenplay
Up in the Air
An Education
Precious
District 9
Crazy Heart
or: The Fantastic Mr. Fox, Julie and Julia

Art Direction
Avatar
Inglorious Basterds
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
or: Nine, A Serious Man

Costume Design
Inglorious Basterds
The Young Victoria
Nine
Bright Star
An Education
or: Sherlock Holmes, Julie and Julia

Visual Effects
Avatar
Star Trek
District 9
or: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Makeup
Star Trek
District 9
The Road
or: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

Film Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglorious Basterds
District 9
or: Star Trek, Precious

Cinematography
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Avatar
Nine
The White Ribbon
or: A Single Man, Bright Star

Original Score
Up
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
Star Trek
or: The Fantastic Mr. Fox, Sherlock Holmes

Sound Mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
District 9
Inglorious Basterds
or: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Up

Sound Effects Editing
Avatar
Star Trek
The Hurt Locker
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up
or: District 9, Inglorious Basterds

Original Song
"The Weary Kind"-Crazy Heart
"Almost There"-The Princess and the Frog
"Cinema Italiano"-Nine
"I See You"-Avatar
"(I Want To) Come Home"-Everybody's Fine
or: "Down in New Orleans"-The Princess and the Frog, "Take it All"-Nine

Animated Film
Up
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Coraline
The Princess and the Frog
Ponyo
or: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Mary and Max

Foreign Language Film
The White Ribbon-Germany
A Prophet-France
Ajami-Israel
Samson and Delilah-Australia
Winter in Wartime-The Netherlands
or: The Secrets of Her Eyes-Argentina, The World is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner-Bulgaria

Documentary Feature
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Every Little Step
Mugabe and the White African
The Beaches of Agnes
or: Under Our Skin, Burma VJ

There we have it. Tune in tomorrow for the actual nominations.

Final Oscar Analysis, Part 3: Tech Categories

Alright, y'all. Last day of predictions here. ...Until Monday, anyway. I'll be quite sparing on the commentary (where 'quite sparing' here means mostly none), as tech awards are notoriously difficult to predict, and any words of wisdom I could provide would have only been made up on the spot to fill space. Plus, not many people know or care who might get nominated for Art Direction, or Sound Effects Editing, or other things that are highly interesting to me, but less interesting to the sane. So here we go.

Art Direction
My Predictions:
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Sherlock Holmes
Star Trek
or: The Lovely Bones, A Single Man
I'm going out on a limb here predicting two sci-fi films. I'd expect at least one to miss, and it's not going to be Avatar (though some are skeptical on its nomination chances here), so look for Star Trek to lose out to The Lovely Bones, A Single Man, or even Where the Wild Things Are. Or Nine. So many options.

Costume Design
Inglourious Basterds
The Young Victoria
Nine
Bright Star
An Education
or: Sherlock Holmes, Julie and Julia, Coco Avant Chanel
It's probably a mistake to predict An Education here, but I've had a hunch since I saw the film, and I'm sticking with it for now. Any of the other three I listed could easily sneak in, and Bright Star or Nine could easily sneak out. Watch for a surprise nomination for Avatar here if the Academy goes insane.

Visual Effects
Avatar
Star Trek
District 9
or: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Terminator Salvation
I can't see any of these three missing. District 9 is the most vulnerable, but all three were critically acclaimed and huge hits, whereas Transformers, the next closest in the race, was almost universally hated (by people with taste, that is). Fun fact: this category whittles down potential nominees to a seven film shortlist from which the nominees are chosen. In addition to the five titles I already discussed, the other two films on the shortlist are 2012 and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. Both have no chance, but it's nice to make it that far, I suppose.

Makeup
Star Trek
District 9
The Road
or: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
It's really just a heat between The Road and Imaginarium. The other two are in for sure. The reason I'm so sure it's only between four films is that this category also creates a seven film shortlist, and the other movies (Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian, The Young Victoria, Il Divo) are just about inconceivable as nominees. Then again, I would have said Click and Norbit were inconceivable as nominees. Sometimes this branch nominates terrible movies.

Film Editing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
District 9
or: Star Trek, Precious
This category is worthy of notice, because only eight films (It Happened One Night, The Life of Emile Zola, The Best Years of Our Lives, Marty, Tom Jones, A Man For All Seasons, Annie Hall, Ordinary People) have ever won best picture without a nomination in this category, and the last time it happened was in 1980. So, I'm not saying that you can't win best picture without a nomination here. It's just not likely. That being said, I don't think District 9, Star Trek, or Precious has a chance to win best picture. The Academy just likes to fill this category out with action movies.

Cinematography
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Avatar
Nine
The White Ribbon
or: A Single Man, Bright Star
I'd like to take Nine out of the top 5 here, but it doesn't seem likely. No one remembers Bright Star, and people, for whatever reason, seem unwilling to recognize the lensing brilliance of A Single Man. I've heard rumors that Avatar will miss here because of its largely digital imagery, but I doubt it. The film draws so much of its power from its visuals; I'm sure the Academy will take notice.

Original Score
Up
Avatar
The Informant!
A Single Man
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
or: Sherlock Holmes, Bright Star, The Last Station, The Road
This category is so difficult to predict. Up, Avatar, and The Informant! are in. I'm guessing with my heart on the last two. I love those particular scores, but I acknowledge that they probably won't make it in. For now, however, I'm keeping them in my top 5.

Sound Mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
or: Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, Sherlock Holmes, Up
I should probably have Transformers in the top 5 here, but I'm holding onto the hope that the Academy will realize that Transformers had a shoddy mixing job, regardless of the quality of the elements mixed. We could be surprised, however, by a complete left-field contender. Who, after all, would have predicted Wanted being nominated in the sound categories last year?

Sound Effects Editing
Avatar
Star Trek
The Hurt Locker
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up
or: District 9, Inglourious Basterds
I really feel like District 9 will find its way into the nominees in this category, but I just can't figure out which film it would replace. My heart says Transformers, but my mind suggest Up. Still, Pixar films have a wonderful track record with this category, so I don't know. It'll be a surprise.

Original Song
"The Weary Kind"-Crazy Heart
"Almost There"-The Princess and the Frog
"Cinema Italiano"-Nine
"I See You"-Avatar
"(I Want To) Come Home"-Everybody's Fine
or: "Down in New Orleans"-The Princess and the Frog, "Take it All"-Nine
I hate predicting this category. There's no guarantee that there will be five nominees (because of the weird nomination process here, anywhere from two to five songs can be nominated), and the music branch is notorious for snubbing the big, obvious contenders (last year's "The Wrestler," anyone?), so I really have no idea. I picked four obvious ones, then assumed that voters would choose Paul McCartney (who wrote the song from Everybody's Fine). I'm probably wrong. Luckily, I don't care: this category is mostly worthless.

Animated Film
Up
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Coraline
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
or: Ponyo
Only the last spot is up for grabs. Will the Academy go populist with Meatballs, or will they favor more international fare with Ponyo? I'm gonna have to go with populist on this one, even if the Academy has loved Miyazaki in the past.

Foreign Language Film
The White Ribbon-Germany
A Prophet-France
The Secrets of Her Eyes-Argentina
Ajami-Israel
Samson and Delilah-Australia
or: Winter in Wartime-The Netherlands, Kelin-Kazakhstan
I can't say much on this subject, as I haven't seen any of these films. The White Ribbon and A Prophet have been sweeping international film awards, Samson and Delilah has been stirring up buzz on the indie circuit, and Israel is experiencing a film renaissance of sorts. This category is all kinds of schizophrenic, though. Voters never can decide what they want. This category makes a nine film shortlist from which to select nominees. The other two possible films are The Milk of Sorrow from Peru, and The World is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner from Bulgaria. Gotta be my favorite title of the year. Naming your film that takes balls.

Documentary Feature
Food, Inc.
The Cove
Mugabe and the White African
The Beaches of Agnes
Every Little Step
or: Under Our Skin, Burma VJ, Valentino: The Last Emperor
Here's another category that I can't approach intelligently, even though The Cove, Food, Inc., Every Little Step, and Valentino: The Last Emperor are at the rental company that I frequent. Oh well. I picked the films with the most positive buzz, and then went for an indie suggestion with The Beaches of Agnes. We'll see.

That's it, folks. Tune in Monday for my final (and by final, I really mean it this time) Oscar predictions, then again on Tuesday to see how my predictions match up to the actual nominations.

Oscar Predictions 09, part 2: Acting

Hello again, and welcome back to our dangerous foray into my bizarre obsessions. Today, we'll be cataloguing and collecting specimens of work that warrant consideration with the acting branches of the Academy. There are four: Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress.

Best Actor
This category is looking fairly crazy this year. It's chock full of veteran actors looking to receive a lifetime achievement award, newbies trying to finally be noticed for their talent, and movies stars having another go at it, all in one.
On the veteran's side, we have four likely contenders: The first, and most would say front-runner, is Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. Though the film has yet to be released to the public, early screenings suggest a career-best performance from an actor who's been nominated four times, but has never taken the gold. This could very easily go his way. His strongest competition comes from Colin Firth for A Single Man, who has already won the Venice Film Festival Award for best actor. Like Bridges, Firth is a respected actor who has yet to be feted by the Academy, and is gathering "performance of a lifetime" laurels. A two-horse race, perhaps? Not to be counted out is Morgan Freeman in Invictus. Honestly, it doesn't matter how good the movie is. He's Morgan Freeman. He's playing Nelson Mandela. He gets in on general principle. A possible dark horse veteran: Hal Holbrook in That Evening Sun. He's got the pedigree and the reviews, but I think the film is just too small and understated to make it in.
The middle-aged and well-respected come next. First and foremost: George Clooney in Up in the Air. This man seems to age like fine wine, and the Academy loves him the more for it. There's no way he won't be recognized for what many call his best performance. Daniel Day-Lewis also has a strong chance for Nine. Admittedly, his role doesn't seem too showy or over-the-top, and the Academy loves Day-Lewis when he's being showy, but he could still have the juice to make it if the film's a big hit. And I can't, in good conscience, count out Viggo Mortensen in The Road. Though the film has gotten mixed reviews, critical acclaim has been universal for his portrayal of a father pushed to his limits. He could easily make it in if some of the unseen contenders above fall through the cracks.
Last, but certainly not least: the new kids on the block. One name: Jeremy Renner. The Hurt Locker. Some people are saying the role isn't showy or big enough, but I'll be damned if the Academy doesn't recognize the slow-boiling masterwork that Renner's performance is. I say he's in. James MacAvoy, in The Last Station, also has a chance. He's proven himself in the past (Atonement, The Last King of Scotland), and it could be his time to get welcomed to the club. Will the film be big enough?
My nomination predictions, in order of likelihood:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Alternate: Viggo Mortensen, The Road, Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine

Best Actress
This category is just the opposite of best actor: where best actor is full of veterans looking for their due, this category is stuffed to the brim with young actresses with performances that can't be ignored. Really, there's only one slot up for grabs. Four performances this year have already stood out, and will almost undoubtedly be nominated. They are:
Meryl Streep for Julie and Julia. People love her impassioned portrayal of Julia Child. Plus, she's Meryl Streep, and has been nominated fifteen times. Fifteen times. They'd nominate her for reading the newspaper.
Helen Mirren in The Last Station. This performance as Leo Tolstoy's wife is supposed to be very showy: Mirren doesn't just chew the scenery, she rips it apart, swallows it, digests it, and regurgitates it in a new and improved form.
Abbie Cornish in An Education. This 22-year old's breakout role is a real acting revelation. There's no way the Academy won't sit up and recognize it.
Same goes for Gabourey Sidibe in Precious. She's young, but a natural. People's heads are turning.
That leaves one spot. But who will take it? Most pundits are lining up for Abbie Cornish in Bright Star, but that film has essentially sunk, in terms of buzz. I think it'd be a miracle for her to make it in. Saorise Ronan, of The Lovely Bones, has a chance, for her role as a murdered teen who watches her family from the afterlife. One problem, though: she's only fifteen, and has already been nominated once. Will they really want to reward her again so early in life? Penelope Cruz also has a chance to make it in for Broken Embraces, based solely on the fact that people do seem to love her right now, since the movie itself hasn't made much of a splash. The most likely possibility, however, is Marion Cotillard for Nine. Screenings of the film early this week had people raving for her performance. She could easily make it in on the coattails of the film, if it turns out to be successful.
My predicted five:
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Alternate: Abbie Cornish, Bright Star, Saorise Ronan, The Lovely Bones

Supporting Actor
God, this category looks so weak right now. There are two legit contenders, and three guesses based solely on film pedigree. Past that, there are a few hopefuls that only have a chance because of the dearth of other worthy contenders.
The two legit contenders: Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds and Alfred Molina in An Education. Waltz was easily the most memorable performance of the summer, and is a great villain, which the Academy loves in this category. Alfred Molina has gotten many tongues wagging for his worried father, and he seems like a lock, even if I didn't particularly respond to his performance.
The three guesses: Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones, Christopher Plummer for The Last Station, and Matt Damon for Invictus. Tucci plays a villain, which the Academy loves. He's in, assuming the film is good. Same for Plummer: he's a due veteran playing a known real-life figure (Leo Tolstoy). Damon is only in talks because, well, he's in a Clint Eastwood movie and we need to talk about someone, don't we?
As far as other contenders are concerned: Peter Sarsgaard, the best supporting performance in An Education for my dollar. He could get in if Invictus or The Lovely Bones turns out to be bad. Same for Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker. He could easily make it if the Academy embraces his film more than we think it will. Lastly: Stanly Tucci for Julie and Julia. If The Lovely Bones fails, assume that Tucci will get in for this one. He's had a great career run of late, and it's his time for recognition. It just depends on which role they want to reward.
My predicted five:
Cristoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Alfred Molina, An Education
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Matt Damon, Invictus
Alternate: Peter Sarsgaard, An Education, Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

Supporting Actress
This category, on the other hand, is just rife with potential contenders. Doesn't matter however, because Mo'Nique is gonna win. No contest. Sorry. Still, there are four other people who can say that 'it's an honor to be nominated,' right? Four movies dominate this category, and all of them could have multiple women nominated.
Precious will undoubtedly see Mo'Nique's abusive mother nominated. Also in the mix, however, are Paula Patton as a caring teacher, and Mariah Carey (no kidding) as a down-to-earth therapist. I don't like the last two actresses' chances, however. It's just going to be too hard to get out from under Mo'Nique's impressive shadow.
Nine is bursting with talented thespians. Most likely to stand out are Penelope Cruz and Judi Dench. Don't rule out Nicole Kidman, Kate Hudson, or Sophia Loren, however.
Up in the Air offers up two (reportedly) great performances from Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga. I don't think both will get in, and Kendrick's performance is showier. Draw your own conclusions.
Similarly, The Lovely Bones has the potential for two great supporting performances: Rachel Weisz as a grieving mother and Susan Sarandon as a spunky grandmother. Right now, I'll go with Sarandon based on respect, but Rachel Weisz is a very talented actress, and could easily knock this one out of the park. We'll know in a few weeks, I suppose.
One woman stands in the way of one of these films getting two ladies recognized, however. That's Julianne Moore in A Single Man. She's reportedly fantastic, and the Academy's really going to have to snub its nose at the film for her to not make it in.
My predicted five:
Mo'Nique, Precious
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Alternate: Judi Dench, Nine, Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones

There we are for now. Later: screenplays. Stay tuned!

2009 Oscars: The major categories. Because it doesn't hurt to try. Part 1.

Hello all.
As you may or may not know, I nurse a bizarre obsession. For nine months out of the year, my inarticulate keening can be contained with the studious application of certain film-related websites. Those other three months, however, I enter full-on gibbering mode. And guess what? It's November, baby.
...My three-month allotment should start in December.
The hell with that.
Sure, it might seem odd to all of you sane people out there, but November is 100% Oscar Season. I can hear your protests: 'But...But...The Oscars are in March! Most of these films haven't even been released to the public yet! This is insanity!' No. No, dear reader. Insanity is the fact that the 2009 Oscar race coverage began the day after the 2008 Oscar ceremony. I've been staring into this big, glitzy abyss for too long, and you're about to reap a little bit of the benefits. So, without further ado, I shall tackle Oscar Nomination predictions for the major categories, which is to say acting, writing, picture, and director. I'll warn you now: I might lose you. I've got nine months of prior knowledge on this subject, and things that seem elementary to me might be new territory for you (example: someone says "Mo'Nique." If you aren't immediately thinking about what she'll say when she wins, then you've probably had a life these past nine months. Good for you.). Anyway, here we go.
*revision: This is kind of an epic post, so I'm just going to limit it to picture and director today. Following later will be screenplays and acting.*

Best Picture
You might be aware that the Academy recently expanded the best picture category to 10 slots, as opposed to the traditional five. This has, understandably, caused pandemonium in Hollywood, as well as bouts of insanity. Every damn film that gets released and becomes even a modest hit has someone yelling 'my God, we have a best picture nominee!' I kid you not: people have said that for Harry Potter, Star Trek, The Hangover, This is It, Paranormal Activity, and even goddamn New mother-...loving Moon. Here this, and here it good. (For added emphasis, I shall use all caps. Also, it would be helpful for you to put on your 3-D goggles at this time.) 10 SLOTS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE ACADEMY WILL CHANGE ITS TASTE. (You may remove your 3-D goggles now.) Yes, there are 5 extra slots. That doesn't mean that they will suddenly love comedy (the last comedy to win was Annie Hall, in 1977. It remains the only out-and-out comedy to be nominated, unless you count It Happened One Night, in 1934, or Lost in Translation in 2003), or science fiction (the only science-fiction film, and by science fiction I mean 'taking place in the future' film to ever be nominated was A Clockwork Orange. Please bear in mind that I don't count Star Wars as science fiction), or horror (The only straight horror film to ever be nominated is The Exorcist, or, if you count it as horror instead of 'psychological thriller/drama', The Silence of the Lambs). What I'm saying is that those extra five slots will be filled with the normal: Holocaust films, intimate dramas, big 'prestige' films, and, if we're lucky, one or two indie competitors.
With all that in mind, I've narrowed the hopefuls down to fifteen films, which can be split into four groups. I honestly don't believe that any other films than these fifteen have a fighting chance. I could be wrong, though.

Critical Successes that have already been released
This category is pretty self-explanatory. These are films that came, were seen, and conquered. Every single one of these films is in, barring something insane happening. They are: The Hurt Locker, Precious, An Education, and Up in the Air. Mind you, two of these films still haven't received wide release. They were still seen by enough critics, though, to form a consensus.

The Big, Prestige-y "Oscar-Bait" Movies that no one has seen
These movies are enigmas. They're obviously meant to receive awards attention, but good intentions aren't a guarantee of success. Some may flop, some may soar. Who knows?
The Lovely Bones: I honestly can't see this one going wrong. Lots of Internet space has been devoted to how this one's going to fail, but I honestly can't imagine Peter Jackson and co. directing Susan Sarandon, Rachel Weisz, Saorise Ronan, Stanley Tucci, and Mark Wahlberg, using already-fantastic source material, and coming up with anything that isn't spectacular. This one's in.
Invictus: A Clint Eastwood romp through soccer in post-apartheid South Africa starring God/Morgan Freeman. I don't mean to sound cynical, but it doesn't matter if this is good or not. There are too many old, conservative Academy members who will watch this, think 'my, what a fine film,' and toss it onto their ballots for giggles. My guess is this film will be rather middlebrow. But hey, middlebrow doesn't hurt with the Academy.
Nine: A musical adaptation of a Fellini film starring the bad boy of indie cinema, fleshed out by gratuitous amounts of fantastic actresses, directed by the man who was last rewarded for bringing Chicago back to life. Sounds like a no-brainer. My guess? It will be good, but not good enough to win.
Avatar: Some people think this will do the same thing to movies that Jesus did to the southern US, back when he visited Atlanta in 1963 (that's how it went, right?). Others think this will be the biggest flop in film history. Personally, I think the film, like Titanic, will have trouble reconciling its compelling story and jaw-dropping technical proficiency with its third-grade level script. But honestly, the quality probably won't matter. As I said before, the Academy doesn't go for sci-fi. This film will almost literally have to be Jesus to make it in. And remember, James Cameron: Jesus was crucified. Good luck to you, sir.

Films Released earlier that were good, but not good enough to be locked in
I suppose I shouldn't say "good enough." What I mean is big enough, or universal enough, or talked about enough. All these films have a good chance, but there aren't many slots open. It's going to be a bloodbath.
Bright Star: Jane Campion's Keats-flavored biopic was a hit with the film festival crowd, but fell flat on its face once it was released for general consumption. I'm sure it's a lovely film, and will no doubt be considered for other, smaller categories, but I don't think it has the juice to fight its way into the top 10. Sorry.
Inglorious Basterds: Who'd have thunk, right? Historical revisionism isn't usually the Academy's cup of tea, but God, they love WW2 movies more than life itself. Plus, this is one of the best-reviewed movies of Tarantino's career. They might want to welcome him back into the fold, since his movies haven't really caught on with the Academy since Pulp Fiction (excluding Pam Greer's nomination for Jackie Brown).
A Serious Man: I'll be the first to say it: The Coens might be too weird for the Academy. Plus, they won the big award only two years ago, and inviting them back again might seem like too much, too soon. Still, there are people out there calling this the Coen's best film. It's certainly not the majority opinion, but Oscar history has proven that a small group of rabid supporters is just, if not more, successful than being well-liked by a large group.
Up: Pixar's been flirting with the best category the whole millennium, even with only 5 slots. It only makes sense that their latest effort, which was received with critical acclaim as always, makes the cut when the field is expanded. End of story.

Movies that have yet to come out that might make a splash
These films aren't quite unseen: most have bowed at festivals or screeners or the like. They aren't big enough, however, to be in the "Big 4" I mentioned earlier. They might have a chance, or they might not, depending on how they're received by the public.
The Last Station: The Academy loves biopics, and this Tolstoy-themed romp certainly won't let them down in that respect. This feels like the sort of stuffy, period "prestige" piece that has been missing the cut for the past few years. In a large field, however, I figure middlebrow will cut it, as long as it appeals to the right audience.
The Road: This one's tough. On its festival debut, it seemed rather polarizing; some people loved it, some people hated it, and many more seemed indifferent. Then again, Cormac McCarthy movies have done well at the Oscars before (*cough, no country for old men, *cough*). Still, this one is noticeably more bleak, and hasn't been earning the "masterpiece" accolades that No Country received. This is quite the long-shot.
A Single Man: This could be the biggest wildcard: the festival audience loved it to death, the regular critics seem to not be moved. Plus, this movie is pretty gay (...literally), and the Academy has trouble warming up to that. Still, if its as impressive as its Venice Film Festival response indicates, they might have to sit up and notice anyway.

There you go. 15 films. Barring a miracle, 10 of these films will make it? Here's my prediction, in order of likelihood:
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Nine
Invictus
Up
Inglorious Basterds
The Last Station
Alternates: A Single Man, A Serious Man


Wow. That took a while. If anyone's still reading, let's try for Best Director. This one's easier; only 5 slots. Traditionally, best picture nominees dominate this category, with 1 or (rarely) 2 slots open for films that aren't recognized in best picture, but exhibit undeniable style and control. With the expansion of the best picture race, however, best director gets confusing. Some say that these five nominees will represent the "real" best picture, aka these five will be the academy's preference. If so, will the direction be ignored, or will reputations and politics still figure in?
As far as locks are concerned, we've got three: Kathryn Bigelow, for The Hurt Locker, who succeeded in bringing the Iraq war to screen with flying colors, meshing style, tension, and dramatic elements seamlessly. Jason Reitman, for Up in the Air; he gets in mainly on the coattails of his film's success, but also for his integration of comedy and drama, which isn't easy to do successfully. Finally, Lee Daniels, for Precious: his direction has honestly received more negative reviews than positive (ie too showy for the material, trying to hard to be 'a director'), but Precious is poised to be the success story of the year, so he's in.

That leaves two spots. Assuming The Lovely Bones is as well-received as it's going to be, then Peter Jackson is in for sure. We'll run with that assumption for now. So who grabs the last spot? Rob Marshall for Nine is an obvious suspect. They loved him for Chicago, and Nine seems to be showy enough to grab their attention. Clint Eastwood could make it in for Invictus simply because he's Clint Eastwood, and Lone Scherfig's An Education has gotten great notices in this respect. It could be too small and understated, however. That leaves two big, loud, unlikely possibilities. The first: Quentin Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds. I doubt the film will be embraced to this degree, but if it is, they'll no doubt want to welcome Tarantino back to the club. The second...James Cameron, for Avatar. Yes, it could be bad. But Cameron is the preeminent action director working today, and it's going to be difficult to ignore his mastery of the medium, regardless of the quality of the drama portrayed.
My predicted 5, in order:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
Rob Marshall, Nine
Alternates: James Cameron, Avatar, Clint Eastwood, Invictus

There's part 1. For your sake, I'll save the rest for later. What do you think? I know it's hard, since most of these movies remain unseen, especially if you aren't searching them out. If you were choosing, what would you nominate for best picture for the year so far?