Final 2011 Oscar Predictions: Bare-Knuckle Brawl Edition

I know, I know, one more post and I'll be out of your hair for another year. As chance would have it, last year I wrote all my final Oscar predictions at once so as to avoid writing a paper. Well, it's Oscar time, and once again I've got a paper to write. Admittedly, this time it's about Robocop, not Confucianism, but that doesn't really matter. So I can continue to put off coming up with something about what Robocop has to say about the state of manhood, I'll just get down to it. This year, the top prizes might be easy to predict, but below the line, two films are gearing up for a heavy-weight deathmatch, prepared to wantonly slaughter any other movie that gets in their way. You'll see what I mean in a bit. For now...

Best Picture

The nominees:

The Artist

The Descendants

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

War Horse

Ok, so The Artist is going to win. I wish I could spend a little more time analyzing, but it's just not necessary. The Artist has won every major prize, has momentum that's just about impossible, and is backed by Oscar-campaign giant Harvey Weinstein. People just love this movie, and are willing to throw every piece of possible hardware its direction. Writing about possible upsets just seems silly. Hugo is undoubtedly the Big Bad in the room, and The Descendants has rallied some support of late, but both are ultimately too weak to topple this year's champ.

Will Win: The Artist

Could Win: Hugo

Should Win: The Tree of Life

Should Have Been Here: Weekend

Best Director

The nominees:

Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris

Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist

Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life

Alexander Payne-The Descendants

Martin Scorsese-Hugo

Generally speaking, when there's a Best Picture contender as strong as The Artist, it's really, really difficult to come up with a convincing argument against the film's director being rewarded as well. Such is the case this year. Hazanivicius has a couple (fairly insignificant) knocks against him: he's French, he's not known in this country for anything other than The Artist, and Martin Scorsese's lifetime-achievement-esque campaign is waiting in the wings with the year's most-nominated film. Scorsese did win the Golden Globe over The Artist, but I really doubt that'll happen again.

Will Win-Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist

Could Win-Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Should Win-Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Should Have Been Here-Nicholas Winding Refn-Drive

Best Actor

The nominees:

Demian Bichir-A Better Life

George Clooney-The Descendants

Jean Dujardin-The Artist

Gary Oldman-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Brad Pitt-Moneyball

In what will surely become a repetitive argument, if it isn't already, it's just dangerous to bet against The Artist too much this year. Clooney looked the frontrunner at the beginning of the awards circuit, but Jean Dujardin has since surged to the top of the ladder, winning a Golden Globe, a SAG award, and a BAFTA (British equivalent of an Oscar). He's talented, memorable, and charming as all get-out. Clooney's still got a chance, but it's not a great one. I'd love for some residual Brad Pitt love to surprise us all Sunday night, but that's not very likely.

Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Could Win: George Clooney, The Descendants

Should Win: Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Should Have Been Here: Ryan Gosling, Drive

Best Actress

The nominees:

Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis-The Help

Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn

Finally, something that at least looks like a race (however small a race it may be). Ignore Close and Mara; they won't score here. This is a dead heat between Viola Davis and Meryl Streep. Davis is in the lead: she's in a well-liked best picture nominee, everyone loves the performance (even the people who don't like The Help), and she's seen as a respected actress finally getting her due. All Meryl's got going for her is the "she hasn't won in 29 years" argument, which just won't be compelling enough to snare her the gold this year. Watch Michelle Williams: if Davis and Streep are close enough to cancel each other out, Williams' Marilyn Monroe burlesque will be the performance that benefits.

Will Win: Viola Davis, The Help

Could Win: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Should Win: Viola Davis, The Help

Should Have Been Here: Charlize Theron, Young Adult

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees:

Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn

Jonah Hill-Moneyball

Nick Nolte-Warrior

Christopher Plummer-Beginners

Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Battle of the Elderly--2012: Extremely Locked and Incredibly Obvious. Branagh, Hill, and Nolte are all out: they're too not-showy, detested, and drunk, respectively. This comes down to Plummer and Von Sydow. Ok, who am I kidding, this comes down to just Christopher Plummer. I've heard murmurs of Von Sydow stealing the "let's reward him before he we bury him" sentiment, but it just isn't happening. Sorry, Bergman films. Von Sydow's career will have to be the reward instead.

Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Could Win: Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Should Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Should Have Been Here: Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees:

Berenice Bejo-The Artist

Jessica Chastain-The Help

Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer-The Help

Like Supporting Actor, this one's all but decided. Octavia Spencer's going to walk to the podium on a carpet of poop-filled dessert. You could argue that having two women from The Help will cause a vote split, opening the way for The Artist, but that argument didn't work last year applied to The Fighter, and I don't see it working this year either. Similarly, you could argue that The Artist's steamroller is going to flatten everything in its way. Possibly, but if The Artist fails to land anywhere, it'll be in this category.

Will Win: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Could Win: Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help

Should Have Been Here: Rose Byrne, Bridesmaids

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees:

The Artist

Bridesmaids

Margin Call

Midnight in Paris

A Separation

Ignore three nominees right away--Bridesmaids, Margin Call, and A Separation are just along for the ride. This category comes down to the inevitable (albeit silent) Best Picture winner trading blows with a universally loved witty, verbal Woody Allen script. I wouldn't fault you for picking The Artist here: the best picture winner hasn't lost in screenplay since Million Dollar Baby in 2004. That being said, I'm giving Allen the edge. To most voters, screenplay=dialogue, and The Artist has, you guessed it, no dialogue, whereas Midnight in Paris sounds and plays like every writer's dizziest daydream come true. Either film could take the win, however.

Will Win: Midnight in Paris

Could Win: The Artist

Should Win: Midnight in Paris*

Should Have Been Here: Weekend

*note that I haven't seen A Separation, so "should win" here means "should win out of the four nominees I've seen."

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees:

The Descendants

Hugo

The Ides of March

Moneyball

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

I imagine this is a three-way race. Despite their relative merits, The Ides of March and Tinker Tailor won't have the support to go all the way. That leaves three choices: The Descendants sounds fairly literate in the theater, and is (apparently) a loved film that voters might want to recognize somewhere, but its script is the source of most of the film's problems. Hugo is, arguably, the best picture runner-up, which has to help, but it's admittedly not much of a writer's showcase. Finally, Moneyball is a fantastic, verbal script, and Moneyball seems to have more support than originally anticipated. So who to choose? It's a nail-biter, and any of these three winning wouldn't surprise me, but I've got to give the slight edge to former winner Alexander Payne, whose Descendants script has experienced a recent uptick in popularity, winning the Writers Guild and USC Scripter awards.

Will Win: The Descendants

Could Win: Moneyball

Should Win: Moneyball

Should Have Been Here: Drive

Art Direction

The nominees:

The Artist

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo

Midnight in Paris

War Horse

This award seems like a more obvious pick than it ought to. Hugo's got to win here, right? It's a beloved film and the design elements are absolutely stunning. What it's got going against it is The Artist and all its momentum, which you'll find is the case for at least half of these craft categories. I think Hugo's bright colors and huge sets will KO The Artist's subtler designs. If there is, however, a solid challenger, it's gotta be Harry Potter: surely some Academy members will feel like giving the whole series a pat on the back for its consistently wonderful production design.

Will Win: Hugo

Could Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Should Win: Hugo

Should Have Been Here: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Costume Design

The nominees:

Anonymous

The Artist

Hugo

Jane Eyre

W.E.

This category is really tough, in that all five movies could conceivably win. Anonymous fits this branch's recent paradigm, which is to say that it's the sort of British royalty costume porn that has been rewarded in this category with only one exception since 2006. The Artist is impressive and the Best Picture front-runner, but black-and-white movies don't triumph here (voters like pretty colors). The pretty color argument works in favor of Hugo, whose costumes are bright, fun, and memorable. If voters feel like going for period British costumes but don't feel like voting for a terrible movie, they can take the classy route and go for Jane Eyre, but the film might be too small to be remembered or seen by enough voters. Finally, W.E. won the Costume Designers award, but I just don't think enough Academy Members will have seen and/or liked this movie to give it a statue. This is easily one of the toughest calls of the night, but I'm going with pretty colors for the win.

Will Win: Hugo

Could Win: Anonymous

Should Win: Jane Eyre

Should Have Been Here: Immortals

Visual Effects

The nominees:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Hugo

Real Steel

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Real Steel

I'd like to think this race is all sewn up; those Weta-made apes are so impressive. That being said, I feel like this category is primed for an upset. Here's an easy place to give a consolation prize to Harry Potter without toppling a more well-loved title, or, if voters are feeling bland, they could just vote for the only prestige flick in the lineup and go with Hugo. I think I'll stick with the monkeys, but I could very well be wrong.

Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Could Win: Hugo

Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Should Have Been Here: The Tree of Life

Makeup

The nominees:

Albert Nobbs

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

The Iron Lady

Here's an easy one. Generally, the Academy loves transformative elderly work, and The Iron Lady provides plenty of that. Harry Potter's got a chance to steal, but I figure Meryl Streep's old-lady teeth will carry the day here.

Will Win: The Iron Lady

Could Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Should Have Been Here: Immortals

Film Editing

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Here's another category where any nominee could take it. Generally, Best Picture threats take this category, which helps The Artist, The Descendants, and Hugo, but when they don't it goes to a well-made action/genre pic, which helps The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and every now and again they go with the structurally complex work, which helps Moneyball, and they do love their veteran editors, which helps Hugo. So it's tough to pick one, is the point. When this category provides a tough choice, always go with the Best Picture frontrunner. It's the safe guess.

Will Win: The Artist

Could Win: Hugo

Should Win: The Artist

Should Have Been Here: Drive

Cinematography

The nominees:

The Artist

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

The Tree of Life

War Horse

Like many of the craft categories this year, cinematography provides a difficult choice with no clear winners. The Artist is gorgeous, but is black and white, and (as said before) voters love pretty colors. Hugo has plenty of bright colors and looks very nice, but might not be overtly showy enough. The Tree of Life is clearly the best, with the most eye-catching lensing, but it might be too weird for the Academy, and Tree cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki has a great record for losing at the last second. A lot of people (myself included) find War Horse's cinematography fairly ridiculous, but it does have lots of sunsets and exterior shots and the like, which uneducated voters love. So who takes it? I wish I could vote for the best, but I just don't think it'll happen. I'll probably kill myself if War Horse wins, though.

Will Win: Hugo

Could Win: The Tree of Life

Should Win: The Tree of Life

Should Have Been Here: Drive

Original Score

The nominees:

The Adventures of Tintin

The Artist

Hugo

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

War Horse

This one's a far easier call. Scoring a silent movie is a very difficult endeavor which makes The Artist completely unique in this category. Howard Shore already has a few Oscars, so they probably won't be falling over themselves to reward Hugo, and John Williams is really going to have to knock things out of the park to get another Oscar, which takes War Horse and Tintin out of the running.

Will Win: The Artist

Could Win: Hugo

Should Win: The Artist

Should Have Been Here: Hanna

Sound Mixing

The nominees:

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Ok, so Dragon Tattoo is too subtle and prickly to win. Ditto Moneyball. I'd say Transformers had a shot, but the Academy obviously hates this franchise. If the first one couldn't win, this one certainly won't. That means this is down to Hugo and War Horse. War Horse has all the elements this branch typically goes for: war, horse, loud noises, etc., but for some reason, Hugo has become the front-runner, winning most of the sound prizes out there. It's a decidedly atypical winner (ie it's not very loud), but I think it's got this category in the bag.

Will Win: Hugo

Could Win: War Horse

Should Win: War Horse

Should Have Been Here: The Tree of Life

Sound Editing

The nominees:

Drive

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Ok, pretty much it's the same argument here as the other sound category. Only difference is that I can very easily imagine a split between Hugo and War Horse, i.e. each movie takes one sound award. If War Horse gets one, it's sound editing. That being said, I'm just not confident enough in a split to take War Horse here.

Will Win: Hugo

Could Win: War Horse

Should Win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Should Have Been Here: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Original Song

The nominees:

"Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

"Real in Rio"-Rio

This category is so silly this year. Muppets win easily.

Will Win: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

Could Win: "Real in Rio"-Rio

Should Win: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

Should Have Been Here: "Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets

Animated Film

The nominees:

A Cat in Paris

Chico and Rita

Kung Fu Panda 2

Puss in Boots

Rango

This one needs no commentary. No way anything other than Rango wins.

Will Win: Rango

Could Win: Puss in Boots

Should Win: Rango

Should Have Been Here: Winnie the Pooh

Foreign Language Film

The nominees:

Bullhead-Belgium

Footnote-Israel

In Darkness-Poland

Monsieur Lazhar-Canada

A Separation-Iran

I'd love to say A Separation, hailed as a modern masterpiece, has this in the bag. If this category's good for one thing, though, it's giving modern masterpieces the finger. So what could take the gold? Footnote won an award at Cannes, but I don't think it's emotional enough. In Darkness is about the Holocaust, which this category loves, but it might be a little too grim for voters (they like their Holocausts inspiring). Monsieur Lazhar is apparently emotionally uplifting, which is pretty crucial here. And Bullhead, which is apparently about castration, can probably safely be ruled out. I honestly think A Separation can take the win here, if only because none of its competitors have enough support to get rid of it. None of them check enough sentimental/manipulative/bad movie boxes, so A Separation wins by default. I bet they'll hate giving this movie to a good movie for once.

Will Win: A Separation

Could Win: Monsieur Lazhar

Should Win: (Abstain) ( I haven't seen any of these, sorry)

Documentary Feature

The nominees:

Hell and Back Again

If A Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Pina

Undefeated

This category is insanely difficult, not least because I've only seen two of these. Every nominee's got a good argument for it, but I'll rule out a couple: If a Tree Falls is too boring and Pina is too weird. Hell and Back Again might win, but I hope it doesn't, because it's pretty routine and not terribly well-made. Paradise Lost is probably the fruntrunner, given its relevance in the news (the murder case it's been profiling was just acquitted), but I'm going with Undefeated. It may be low-key, but it's got an emotional punch and it's been campaigning hard recently.

Will Win: Undefeated

Could Win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Should Win: (abstain. again.)

There we have it. For those keeping score at home, here are the movies I'm predicting to score more than once:

The Artist-5

Hugo-5

The Help-2

We'll see how things go, I suppose! Any last minute predictions/preferences?

Oscar Nominations: Hit me harder, I can still hear them.

Oscar nomination morning is like Christmas: There's tons of build up and anticipation, but sometimes the things you wanted just aren't under the tree. Such is the case this year. Oh well. Let's get to it, shall we? I'll put an asterisk next to the ones I predicted correctly.

Best Picture

The Artist*

The Descendants*

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The Help*

Hugo*

Midnight in Paris*

Moneyball*

The Tree of Life*

War Horse

Nine nominees, and they managed to fit at least three mediocre films in there. Kudos, I guess? When I said that I figured Extremely Loud... had to show up somewhere, I didn't really mean it to this extent. They could have made worse choices for best picture, but not by that much. Toss in The Help and War Horse, and we've got some stunningly uninteresting choices. All I can say is thank goodness The Tree of Life made it in.

Early winner prediction: The Artist

Best Director

Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris*

Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist*

Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life*

Alexander Payne-The Descendants*

Martin Scorsese-Hugo*

Five for five, and yay Terrence Malick! I'm so happy he got recognized here. And I suppose this lineup could be worse. It's hardly the lineup I would have picked, but at least the unholy trinity (Help, Extremely Loud..., War Horse) didn't show up here.

Early winner prediction: Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist

Best Actor

Demian Bichir-A Better Life

George Clooney-The Descendants*

Jean Dujardin-The Artist*

Gary Oldman-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Brad Pitt-Moneyball*

This was a hugely surprising category this year. It's fun to see Bichir and Oldman in here, but certainly not at Michael Fassbender's expense *despair*. At least Leonardo Dicaprio didn't make it in!

Early winner prediction: George Clooney-The Descendants

Best Actress

Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs*

Viola Davis-The Help*

Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady*

Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn*

Well, Rooney Mara slides in after all. I haven't seen Tilda Swinton's performance in We Need to Talk About Kevin, so I'm not sure how disappointed I should be. Similarly, I haven't seen Albert Nobbs, so I can't show as much annoyance at Glenn Close getting in as other bloggers can. Give me time though; I'm sure I'll come to hate it as much as the next guy.

Early winner prediction: Viola Davis-The Help

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn*

Jonah Hill-Moneyball

Nick Nolte-Warrior*

Christopher Plummer-Beginners*

Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

I hate, hate, hate that Albert Brooks missed for Drive, particularly when Jonah Hill did, in fact, make it. Y'know, I originally had Von Sydow in my predicted five, but then I saw the movie and thought there was no way it would happen. Maybe I saw a different movie than the Academy?

Early winner prediction: Christopher Plummer-Beginners

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo-The Artist*

Jessica Chastain-The Help*

Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs*

Octavia Spencer-The Help*

How strange is it that we can now call a performance that involves pooping into a sink an oscar-nominated achievement? Not that I'm complaining. I love Bridesmaids, so I'll take anything it can get. I'm a little surprised that Shailene Woodley/The Descendants missed, but them's the breaks.

Early winner prediction: Octavia Spencer-The Help

Original Screenplay

The Artist*

Bridesmaids*

Margin Call*

Midnight in Paris*

A Separation

Really surprised that 50/50 didn't make it here, but it's really fun to see A Separation get in. Ditto Bridesmaids; if Kristen Wiig can't break into the lead actress race, the least she deserves is a writing nomination.

Early winner prediction: Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants*

Hugo*

The Ides of March

Moneyball*

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy

No Help? This morning definitively showed us that The Help might not have been the Oscar Juggernaut we were all expecting, and that Tinker, Tailor... had more support than originally anticipated. Glad to see The Ides of March make it; it's not a great movie, but it is a well-written one.

Art Direction

The Artist*

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*

Hugo*

Midnight in Paris

War Horse

A few surprises here. I though Midnight in Paris had a chance in a tech category, but I figured Costume Design was its most likely place. Also did not expect War Horse to make it in, because it relies so heavily on exteriors instead of elaborate sets. And since they're in the same category, I think this is a good time to float my opinion that Harry Potter is a far more interesting British war movie than War Horse. Just saying.

Early winner prediction: Hugo

Costume Design

Anonymous*

The Artist*

Hugo*

Jane Eyre*

W.E.

As I expected, the Academy just couldn't turn down Anonymous's Elizabethan antics, nor, apparently, could they turn down nominating at least one awful movie per year in this category. Hello W.E.!

Early winner prediction: Hugo

Visual Effects

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*

Hugo*

Real Steel

Rise of the Planet of the Apes*

Transformers: Dark of the Moon*

What the hell is Real Steel doing here? And at the expense of The Tree of Life? This is the worst. How did The Tree of Life not make it here? This makes me sad.

Early winner prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Makeup

Albert Nobbs

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*

The Iron Lady*

Yay Harry Potter! I really wish Harry Potter had showed up in more places this morning, but I'll just have to celebrate it landing wherever it can.

Early winner prediction: The Iron Lady

Film Editing

The Artist*

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*

Hugo*

Moneyball*

Not sure I'm thrilled with this category. I probably should have predicted The Descendants in this race. The fact that it showed up here means it's not yet dead in the Best Picture race.

Early winner prediction: The Artist

Cinematography

The Artist*

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*

Hugo*

The Tree of Life*

War Horse*

I'm fine with most of these nominees (Tree of Life!), but I really see no need for War Horse to show up here at the expense of more competently shot films. Such is the draw of Spielberg, I guess. Even when he doesn't do his best, his movies are still awards magnets.

Original Score

The Adventures of Tintin

The Artist*

Hugo*

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

War Horse*

I suppose I'm ok with this lineup. My favorites, like Hanna and Attack the Block never had a chance here anyhow, though I'm sad Harry Potter didn't make it here. I almost predicted Tinker, Tailor, but switched at the last minute because 'Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close' had to show up somewhere. ....Well, it did. At 48%, that movie's got to have just about the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of any Best Picture nominee ever.

Early winner prediction: The Artist

Sound Mixing

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo*

Moneyball

Transformers: Dark of the Moon*

War Horse*

Moneyball showing up here suggests a hitherto unsuspected love for that film among the Academy. Does that mean something? Is it going to sneak in and steal screenplay or actor from The Descendants? I hope so, honestly.

Early winner prediction: War Horse

Sound Editing

Drive

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Transformers: Dark of the Moon*

War Horse*

Drive's nomination, its only one of the morning, almost feels like a slap to the face. I mean, I'd like to say it's better than nothing, but I might have preferred it to have been ignored by the Academy, rather than tossed one little bone. I'd like to further lament the absence of Harry Potter in the sound categories. Someone really needs to explain to me how Hugo's sound design is more deserving of recognition.

Early winner prediction: War Horse

Original Song

"Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

"Real in Rio"-Rio

Only two nominees, and I didn't guess either of them correctly. That's got to be some kind of record for me. On a related note, why on earth are there only two nominees?

Early winner prediction: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

Animated Film

A Cat in Paris

Chico and Rita

Kung Fu Panda 2*

Puss in Boots*

Rango*

In a move I should have anticipated, arthouse fare dominated this category, in a year when most of the studio stuff failed to impress. As expected, Tintin failed to show up here, most likely due to the branch's dislike of motion-capture animation. I'm glad Cars 2 didn't make it--it was pretty awful, and the last thing Pixar needs is validation for acting on their worst instincts.

Early winner prediction: Rango

Foreign Language Film

Bullhead-Belgium

Footnote-Israel*

In Darkness-Poland*

Monsieur Lazhar-Canada*

A Separation-Iran*

Israel continues its spectacular nomination streak in this category, and A Separation continues its march toward Oscar glory. Surprised to see Bullhead here: I haven't seen it, but allegedly it's a thoroughly atypical nominee, so that's fun.

Early winner prediction: A Separation

Documentary Feature

Hell and Back Again*

If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory*

Pina*

Undefeated

Really, really surprised that Project Nim didn't make the cut, sad that We Were Here didn't, and excited for Pina.

Early winner prediction: I have no idea. ....Paradise Lost, maybe?

Note: of the main nominees (ie not animated, foreign, or documentary), I haven't seen Albert Nobbs, Margin Call, A Separation, W.E., or Real Steel. Margin Call is sitting on my TV right now, so I'm confident I'll be able to see that one, and I'm sure Albert Nobbs will stagger into theaters in the near future. The others? I'm not sure if I'll be able to pick them up before Oscar night.

This was not a good prediction session for me. I missed a ton. Probably because I was expecting the Academy to be a little more interesting in their choices. My mistake, I suppose.

Here's a list of the 10 most nominated films:

1. Hugo-11

2. The Artist-10

3. Moneyball-6

4. War Horse-6

5. The Descendants-5

6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-5

7. Midnight in Paris-4

8. The Help-4

9. The Tree of Life-3

10. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy-3

And here's a list of some notable films that didn't get any nominations: Shame, J. Edgar, We Need to Talk About Kevin, 50/50, Win Win, Super 8, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Captain America: The First Avenger, Arthur Christmas, Take Shelter, Cars 2, Young Adult, Melancholia, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Coriolanus, Immortals, X-Men: First Class, Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, Hanna, Weekend, Attack the Block, Thor...Big list this year, and I'm sure there are other's I'm not thinking of.

Well, what do you think? Obviously, I'm a bit disappointed, but how about you? Good things? Bad things? Sound off in the comments.

Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Summing it Up

Alright, back again. Oscar nominations come out in roughly 22 hours, which means that in 22 hours no one, including myself, will be thinking about what was predicted so much as what actually happened. Until then, though, we get to continue to have fun trying to read the tea leaves. Today, I'm just going to collect everything in one place: I'll offer up all my predictions, in order of likelihood and without commentary, and only allow myself one alternate. Incidentally, I know it's strange to write so much about predicting the Academy's best-of-the-year picks without talking about my own, so know that my own 'best of 2011' lists are coming down the pike. I've just got a few more movies I need to see. I imagine I'll get those lists up somewhere in early to mid February. Before the Oscars, anyway. Just know for now that If I could automatically guarantee a nomination, I'd have to choose between Michael Fassbender for Actor, Charlize Theron for Actress, and The Tree of Life for Visual Effects. If I could automatically prevent a nomination, it would be Leonardo Dicaprio in Actor, and while I'm not actually predicting it to happen, I'm sending plenty of "please don't be nominated" vibes Jonah Hill's way as well.

Note: Since I've posted them, I've changed four predictions: In Supporting Actor, I've kicked Viggo Mortensen out of the top 5 and replaced him with Nick Nolte, in Original Screenplay I've replaced Win Win with Margin Call (and made Win Win my alternate instead of A Separation), and I've changed the alternates for Original Score and Animated Film.

Best Picture

The Artist

The Descendants

Hugo

The Help

Midnight in Paris

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

Alternate: War Horse

Best Director

Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist

Martin Scorsese-Hugo

Alexander Payne-The Descendants

Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris

Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life

Alternate-David Fincher-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Actor

George Clooney-The Descendants

Brad Pitt-Moneyball

Jean Dujardin-The Artist

Michael Fassbender-Shame

Leonardo Dicaprio-J. Edgar

Alternate-Michael Shannon-Take Shelter

Best Actress

Viola Davis-The Help

Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn

Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin

Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs

Alternate-Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer-Beginners

Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn

Albert Brooks-Drive

Nick Nolte-Warrior

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March

Alternate: Jonah Hill-Moneyball

Best Supporting Actress

Octavia Spencer-The Help

Berenice Bejo-The Artist

Jessica Chastain-The Help

Shailene Woodley-The Descendants

Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs

Alternate-Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids

Original Screenplay

Midnight in Paris

The Artist

50/50

Bridesmaids

Margin Call

Alternate-Win Win

Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants

Moneyball

The Help

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Art Direction

Hugo

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

The Artist

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

The Help

Alternate: War Horse

Costume Design

Hugo

The Artist

Jane Eyre

The Help

Anonymous

Alternate: W.E.

Visual Effects

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Hugo

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

The Tree of Life

Alternate-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Makeup

The Iron Lady

Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Alternate-The Artist

Film Editing

The Artist

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Moneyball

War Horse

Alternate: The Descendants

Cinematography

The Tree of Life

The Artist

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

War Horse

Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Original Score

The Artist

War Horse

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Sound Mixing

Hugo

Super 8

War Horse

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Alternate-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Sound Editing

Super 8

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Alternate: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Original Song

"Life's a Happy Song"-The Muppets

"Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets

"The Living Proof"-The Help

"Star Spangled Man"-Captain America: The First Avenger

"Lay Your Head Down"-Albert Nobbs

Alternate: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

Animated Film

Rango

Puss in Boots

Kung Fu Panda 2

Arthur Christmas

Cars 2

Alternate-The Adventures of Tin Tin

Foreign Language Film

A Separation-Iran

In Darkness-Poland

Footnote-Israel

Omar Killed Me-Morocco

Monsieur Lazhar-Canada

Alternate-Pina-Germany

Documentary Feature

Project Nim

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Pina

Hell and Back Again

We Were Here

Alternate-Buck

There we have it! Tune in tomorrow to see everything that I got wrong!

Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Craft Categories

Alright, here's my last salvo of predictions. Today, we're going to tackle all the craft categories. Because there are ten of them, and because they're not the kind of races I can analyze with certainty like the major categories, I'm going to try to keep commentary fairly brief. Here goes!

Art Direction

Hugo

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

The Artist

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

The Help

Alternates: War Horse, The Tree of Life

So the top three are definitely in. The bottom two aren't as set, but Tinker, Tailor has to show up somewhere, and I imagine The Help is going to rack up a pretty impressive nomination total. War Horse and The Tree of Life both have support, but I don't think it's enough. For some more adventurous options, they might consider Pirates of the Caribbean or Captain America. Alternately, if they're feeling less adventurous, Anonymous might slide in.

Costume Design

Hugo

The Artist

Jane Eyre

The Help

Anonymous

Alternates: W.E., Captain America: The First Avenger

Hugo and The Artist are golden. Jane Eyre and The Help are solid enough, and I can't imagine the Academy not responding to all the frills in Anonymous. It kind of bugs me, not having a wacky nomination in there, which is why W.E. is so close to the top. I'd like to think they're adventurous enough to do something like Captain America or (even more unlikely/more fun) Thor or Immortals, but chances are they might spring for something more traditional like My Week with Marilyn instead.

Visual Effects

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Hugo

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

The Tree of Life

Alternates: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Captain America: The First Avenger

Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think The Tree of Life's spectacular creation scenes are going to find a home here. It's probably more likely that a more standard, CGI-driven affair will take the 5th spot instead, but I can hope, can't I? Incidentally, the Academy has already narrowed this category down to ten finalists. The other three possibilities are Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, X-Men: First Class, and Real Steel. Either of the first two also have a strong shot for the 5th spot, which is really the only one up for grabs.

Makeup

The Iron Lady

Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Alternates: The Artist, Hugo

Similar to the Visual Effects category, this one has been narrowed to seven finalists. The Iron Lady is full of very competent aging makeup, so it's in. When something as obscure as Gainsbourg makes the top seven, then it's not a good idea to bet against it going all the way. That leaves one spot, which I imagine will be carried by "last chance to reward it" sentiments for Harry Potter. Watch out for The Artist, though. The other two finalists that I have yet to mention are Albert Nobbs and Anonymous, but I can't see either of them making it. This category is notoriously finnicky, though, so who knows what's going to happen?

Film Editing

The Artist

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Moneyball

War Horse

Alternates: The Descendants, Drive

This category tends to go for best picture hopefuls and the occasional action movie. As such, I really ought to have The Descendants in the top 5, but I have a hunch that Moneyball will make it in. Maybe War Horse isn't in the top 5? Dunno. If it's going to get nominated anywhere, it's probably here. Extra cool points to the Academy for nominating Drive or The Tree of Life; both possible, but unlikely.

Cinematography

The Tree of Life

The Artist

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

War Horse

Alternates: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

The top three (maybe four) spots are completely locked in. War Horse looks awfully vulnerable, but I'm leaving it for now. Either Tinker, Tailor's icy lensing or Harry Potter's attempts at iconic imagery could easily sneak in here. Possible Drive or Moneyball, but don't count on it. I feel like this category's primed for a really surprising nominee, but I've no idea what it would be. Which makes sense, given that it's a surprise.

Original Score

The Artist

War Horse

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Alternates: The Help, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

This category's really tough. I'm only 100% confident on The Artist. All the other slots could be taken by the alternates, or by Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Adventures of Tin Tin, Jane Eyre, The Skin I Live In, or some other mystery soundtrack. Who knows? I've got Extremely Loud here because that movie's got to end up in some category, and this seems like the safest call. Shame the composer, Alexandre Desplat, isn't taking the spot for his more effective work on Harry Potter.

Sound Mixing

Hugo

Super 8

War Horse

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Alternates: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

I honestly think the sound categories are the absolute hardest categories to predict this year. I'm prepared to only get one or two right come Tuesday morning. Watch out for Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, Hanna, and The Adventures of Tin Tin, just to name a few.

Sound Editing

Super 8

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Alternates: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

I just might go 0/5 in this category. It's that tough. Rango, Hugo, and The Adventures of Tin Tin linger on the edges.

Original Song

"Life's a Happy Song"-The Muppets

"Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets

"The Living Proof"-The Help

"Star Spangled Man"-Captain America: The First Avenger

"Lay Your Head Down"-Albert Nobbs

Alternates: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets, "Hello Hello"-Gnomeo and Juliet

I hate predicting this category. Its nomination process is bizarre (it involves a ten-point ranking system), the number of nominees isn't set (there could be 2-5 nominees, or no nominees at all), and the Academy never follows a pattern. That said, two Muppet songs are in (but only two, because that's the limit on nominations in this category for each movie). Past that? I don't know. These five have seemed like the most likely choices for about five months now, which of course means that at least one of them is wrong. Possible spoilers include "Bridge of Light" from Happy Feet 2, "Where the River Goes" from Footloose, "The Keeper" from Machine Gun Preacher, and "Think You Can Wait" from Win Win.

There we have it! I'll put all my predictions in one place tomorrow, but for now, they're all done. I just need to wait and see what I've gotten wrong! And really, being wrong is probably half the fun of predicting Oscars anyway.

Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Acting

What better way to spend your Saturday than familiarizing yourself with some Oscar hopefuls? Read this, figure out what sounds good, and go see a movie. I'm here to help. ...Also, to predict, but I help too. Anyhow...

Best Actor

Finally, a race that makes some sense to me. The lead races are pretty easy to figure out this year, which will be a fun contrast to the hellish nightmare we'll get to enjoy with the supporting categories. I honestly think the top 5 are pretty much set here. The top three spots--George Clooney in The Descendants, Jean Dujardin in The Artist, and Brad Pitt in Moneyball--aren't going to be changing any time soon. Honestly, I don't think the last two spots will either. Leonardo Dicaprio's probably in for J. Edgar; sure, the movie got poor reviews, but so did Clint Eastwood's Invictus, which went home with two acting nominations. Bad reviews never stop the Academy from giving out "meh, you tried" nominations. Michael Fassbender is probably also in for Shame. Now, I've been hearing talk of a Fassbender snub recently, but I'm just not buying it. Admittedly, I might not be buying it because I really love the performance and am letting my own tastes get in the way, and I recognize that both the performance and the film are hardly typical Oscar fare. That being said, who's going to push him out? Surprise nominations are usually garnered by small, spunky independent contenders who are critically respected but underseen, and they tend to knock out bigger, more obvious contenders. If anything, Dicaprio's more vulnerable than Fassbender, because Dicaprio's primed to be upset by an underdog, whereas Fassbender is an underdog, at least when it comes to being a standard Oscar movie. If there is an upset, who would it be? Maybe Michael Shannon in Take Shelter, who is the only one who could do it; I don't see either Demian Bichir in A Better Life or Gary Oldman in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy making it, regardless of what other bloggers would have me believe. Nope, I'm confident with my top 5.

My predictions, in order of likelihood:

George Clooney-The Descendants

Brad Pitt-Moneyball

Jean Dujardin-The Artist

Michael Fassbender-Shame

Leonardo Dicaprio-J. Edgar

Alternates: Michael Shannon-Take Shelter, Demian Bichir-A Better Life

Best Actress

Here's the funny thing: this category is almost the same as lead actor. Swap out the names, repeat the argument, we're good to go. Top three spots--Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams/My Week with Marilyn--are golden. Bottom two are spots are filled with a scrappy indie not-traditionally-oscar contender (Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin) and a "meh, you tried" nomination (Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs). The only difference between these two categories is I'm more open to the idea of one of the slots changing. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has been coming on really strong the past couple weeks, which could help Rooney Mara immensely. I could easily see her stealing one of the more fluid bottom slots. That being said, I think Swinton's this-nomination-is-really-an-apology-for-not-noticing-you-in-Julia-and-I Am Love narrative, as well as Close's ahmygawd-Glenn-welcome-back-at-least-you-got-the-movie-made will defeat Rooney's "exciting new ingenue" flair.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:

Viola Davis-The Help

Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn

Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin

Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs

Alternates: Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Charlize Theron-Young Adult

Best Supporting Actor

I hate this category so, so much. I know exactly one thing: Christopher Plummer is a lock for Beginners. The rest? I've no clue whatsoever. Anyone could get it, and I still don't even know who I want to predict. So I'm just going to list all twelve possibilities (yup, twelve, and all of them have a good shot) and hope that when I'm done, I'll have made a decision or two. In alphabetical order:

Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn:Here's about as close to another lock as it gets. I don't understand what people love about this performance, but apparently they do. Oscar loves famous people imitating other famous peoples, Branagh's Olivier should succeed here.

Albert Brooks-Drive: I used to be way more confident here, but Brooks has missed some important precursors. Maybe the Academy just isn't cool enough to reward Drive? I really hope that's not the case.

Armie Hammer-J. Edgar: If J. Edgar feels like repeating Invictus's Oscar history, this could happen; Hammer is admittedly the best thing about this movie, and he's got Leo's coattails to hold onto.

Jonah Hill-Moneyball: I acknowledge that I really ought to predict Hill in this category, but I just don't want to. It's not right, dammit. Besides, I've got a hunch that he'll miss. Or maybe my hunch is just a hope.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March: If Hoffman gets in for this, one of his laziest, most repetitive performances, I'm going to scream. Still, The Ides of March has got to show up somewhere, and Hoffman is a tried and tested default nominee. *sigh*

Ben Kingsley-Hugo: I really, really thought Kingsley's campaign would take off more. He's a respected former nominee, playing a famous person who is the emotional backbone of the best segment of Hugo. That being said, he's shown up in almost none of the precursors. I guess people have just forgotten him.

Viggo Mortensen-A Dangerous Method: Mortensen scored a surprise Golden Globe nomination for this category, which resuscitated his campaign, but no one seems to be talking about this movie.

Nick Nolte-Warrior: About once a decade, people seem to enjoy Nick Nolte's work. He's been nominated for a lot of supporting awards this season, but I can't shake the feeling that Warrior might be forgotten altogether.

Patton Oswalt-Young Adult: Here's another movie that's been forgotten. Sure, Oswalt's charming and fairly deserving, but voters just aren't responding to his film.

Brad Pitt-The Tree of Life: Maybe this is wishful thinking, or maybe people will be voting for Moneyball and will remember just how good Pitt was in this film as well.

Andy Serkis-Rise of the Planet of the Apes: Hey, it could happen. He's earned a bunch of awards/nominations on the precursor circuit. That being said, I can't see the Academy rewarding an entirely motion-capture performance just quite yet. I'd love to be wrong, though.

Corey Stoll-Midnight in Paris: I'd love for this to happen. Stoll's Hemingway is easily the most memorable part of Midnight in Paris, and the movie has done very well for itself thus far. Could he be the big surprise?

Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: About three hours ago, I was pretty sure I was going to put Von Sydow in the top five. Then I saw the movie. Not only are the reviews brutal, Von Sydow's character isn't around much, and doesn't have much to do with the time he's given. Still, I suppose he could slip in on residual love for other movies.

Y'know, that didn't help at all. I've got no idea who to predict. Oh well. I'm just going to start typing and we'll see what happens.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:

Christopher Plummer-Beginners

Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn

Albert Brooks-Drive

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March

Viggo Mortensen-A Dangerous Method

Alternates: Jonah Hill-Moneyball, Nick Nolte-Warrior, Corey Stoll-Midnight in Paris

(Yeah, I get three, because I'm so lost. I honestly didn't even have Hoffman or Mortensen in my top 10 until about 30 seconds ago. Just watch-it's going to be Hill and Nolte. I know it. Shoot.)

Best Supporting Actress

Well, that was embarrassingly long. Supporting Actress is also very difficult to predict, but refreshingly so, in that there are only 6 women still in the running. The problem is that only one of them is safe. That's Octavia Spencer for The Help. She's won a Critics' Choice award and a Golden Globe, so she's in. The other five women? Any of them could do it. They are:

Berenice Bejo-The Artist: She's essentially a co-lead in the Best Picture front-runner, and it doesn't hurt that she's fantastic. I feel confident that she'll make it in.

Jessica Chastain-The Help: This category has a penchant for picking two women from the same movie, and Jessica Chastain has had one hell of a year, with great performances in this, The Tree of Life, Take Shelter, Coriolanus, etc. Unfortunately, all those great performances might work against her; if voters can't decide which movie they like best, she'll split too many votes between all her various roles.

Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids: It's so fun that we can even consider this. Sure, she hardly gives my favorite performance in the film, but it would be such a wacky, atypical Oscar nomination that I don't even care. That being said, the wacky, atypical-ness of it all is her biggest problem right now.

Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs: People don't like this movie, which hurts, but apparently McTeer steals the show (which I haven't seen yet), which helps. Plus she's the only former nominee still in the running, which has to give her a leg up.

Shailene Woodley-The Descendants: She's in a popular film, and she's quite good, but she's just so young. Are they going to want to reward a 20-year old whose only known for being in The Secret Life of the American Teenager, or will they make her wait?

...I should probably briefly mention Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus. Allegedly, it's an incredible performance, but the film's just not being seen, and the people that do see it don't like it. If anyone surprises in this category, it'll be her; just don't count on it.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:

Octavia Spencer-The Help

Berenice Bejo-The Artist

Jessica Chastain-The Help

Shailene Woodley-The Descendants

Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs

Alternates: Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids, Vanessa Redgrave-Coriolanus

Phew. That was much longer than anticipated. I completely forgive you for not reading the whole post. Tomorrow, I'll post some brief thoughts on all the craft categories, and then we'll wrap it up Monday!

Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Directing and Screenplays

Back again! Let's knock a few more categories off the predictions list, shall we? First up:

Best Director

To begin with, this category has three mortal locks: Michel Hazanivicius for The Artist, Alexander Payne for The Descendants, and Martin Scorsese for Hugo. None of these guys are going anywhere. That, in my mind, leaves four directors competing for two spots. They are:

-Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris-Admittedly, I should probably have Allen in the 'lock' category. People love this movie, and he's hit all the right precursor awards. Still, I'm having the tiniest bit of doubt about the Academy rewarding the director of something so light on its feet and seemingly effortless (no matter how hard effortless is to do) as Midnight in Paris. I'm sure he'll get in, but I'm not 100% sure, so he's not a lock.

-David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-Whether this nomination happens depends on A) just how sorry they are for The King's Speech, and B) whether or not enough voters stick up for more unorthodox choices, or if people just go with the previously established consensus. Not to say that Dragon Tattoo is conventional Oscar bait; it's just an easier choice than, say...

-Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life-This movie is, above all, a director's achievement, and I really hope the Academy will recognize that. Still, as I mentioned in my last post, The Tree of Life is hardly an Oscar-friendly film.

-Steven Spielberg, War Horse-I don't really think this is going to happen. I definitely could be underestimating War Horse, however, and if I am, then Spielberg could still slide in here.

-Other remote possibilities: if The Help becomes an Oscar juggernaut (god help us), then expect to see Tate Taylor here. Alternately, if the directors' branch feels really, really adventurous, we could see Nicholas Winding Refn show up here for Drive. While the directors used to give out plenty of left-field directing nominations, they haven't done anything this out-there since Fernando Meirelles and City of God in 2003 (...though I guess you could make an argument for Mike Leigh/Vera Drake in 2004 and Paul Greengrass/United 93 in 2006).

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:

Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist

Martin Scorsese-Hugo

Alexander Payne-The Descendants

Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris

Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life

Alternates: Davind Fincher-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Steven Spielberg-War Horse

Best Original Screenplay

Man, this category is driving me crazy this year. So Midnight in Paris and The Artist are safe. Past that, I've really got no idea. On the comedy end of the spectrum, we've got 50/50, which has done surprisingly well at the precursors, Bridesmaids, which I expect to show up somewhere on nominations morning, and Young Adult, whose Diablo Cody/Jason Reitman pedigree is excellent, but it just hasn't performed the way it should have. Since Oscar voters rarely respond to comedy (although that happens most frequently in this category), we should look at the drama options: Todd McCarthy has had success in this category, so his new dramedy Win Win could show up. Asgar Farhadi's A Separation could've had this nomination locked if it released earlier, but their 'hold onto it until December 30th and then just hope' release strategy backfired, so now I'm not so confident. The Tree of Life is bound to be honored somewhere, but I can't see Screenplay being one of those places. Still, you never know. Finally, we've got some unlikely indie contenders: Beginners could make it in on the coattails of Christopher Plummer's Oscar campaign, ditto Take Shelter and Michael Shannon and Michael Fassbender and Shame, and maybe Martha Marcy May Marlene could still have gas in its tank, but I doubt it. And we haven't even mentioned Margin Call yet.

...Y'know, after writing out an embarrassing amount of options, I still have no idea what to predict. Good grief. This category is just ridiculous this year.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:

Midnight in Paris

The Artist

50/50

Bridesmaids

Win Win

Alternates: A Separation, Margin Call

Best Adapted Screenplay

Here's a category I'm much for comfortable with, because it's just stacked with Best Picture heavyweights, which means all I have to do is pick a few. The Descendants and Moneyball are definitely in. Meanwhile, Hugo and The Help get in on the strength of their Best Picture campaigns, despite not being praised for their writing. That leaves one slot. Conventional wisdom suggests The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo gets in because it's the next strongest Best Picture contender, but sometimes the writers will pick an outside choice like The Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, or even Drive. I don't think any of those have enough support to distinguish themselves from each other, though, and when none of the smaller movies have passionate enough support, the consensus choice gets in.

My Predictions, in order of likelihood:

The Descendants

Moneyball

The Help

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Alternates: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Ides of March

That just about wraps it up for today. I'm going to leave off acting predictions for tomorrow, because by then I'll have finally gotten around to seeing Shame. So come back tomorrow for what's got to be the second-hardest (hardest? That'd be Sound Mixing) category to predict this year.