Thursday, February 16, 2012

Best of 2011, Part 2: Directing and Screenplays

Welcome back! If you made it through yesterday's giant post and are still coming back for more, than you're really beyond my help. People with this much appreciation for punishment tend to die like David Carradine. (...You know, after asking so nicely for views, I suppose I ought to abuse you less. You're a tragically noble figure out there. Keep that chin up!) So anyway, as a change of pace, I"m going to try to keep today's post a little more brief. So, let's get to it: the categories I plan to screw up later in life. Directing and Screenplays!

Best Director
5. Andrew Haigh-Weekend
Though his film isn't as flashy as some of the others on this list, I mostly admire Weekend as an exercise in restraint. Haigh's camera always knows when to linger so as to give its characters privacy, and the film's hard-hitting moments tend to be delivered in sneaky, verite-esque ways. Extra kudos for allowing his two lead performances to evolve in medium/shared shots. Too many movies today rely on close-ups and one-person compositions. Weekend has the guys to makes us watch these two guys act together.

4. Joe Wright-Hanna
Where Weekend tends to hide its stylistic impulses, Hanna pounds its style into your eyeballs with a rusty socket-wrench. Wright shows obvious courage in some of the shots he captures; long takes, difficult choreography, and unexpected framing. He then saturates his piece with the zanily grim fairy-tale aesthetic which makes Hanna so unique.

3. Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist
The Artist couldn't possibly have succeeded without an assured presence at the helm, and Hazanivicius fulfills that role with carefree wit and panache. Outside of the performances (which must certainly owe something to Hazanivicius as well), The Artist's primary successes stem from its deceptively smart visual sensibilities. Hazanivicius finds novel ways to convey story without the crutches of sound and dialogue, and he does it effortlessly.

2. Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life
Above all, The Tree of Life is a directorial achievement. It's a huge, sprawling, gorgeously unformed work of art, splashed across the canvas like a Jackson Pollock/Monet lovechild. More than any other film this year, The Tree of Life relied on the vision of the man behind the camera to congeal into something relevant. Under Malick's guidance, The Tree of Life does better than relevance; it reaches greatness.

1. Nicholas Winding Refn-Drive
I almost gave the top spot to Malick, but he ultimately lost out (mainly because almost all of Tree of Life's flaws can be traced back to his own choices). Where The Tree of Life is unformed, Drive is wound as tight as it possibly could be without breaking. Having achieved the most compelling atmosphere in cinema this year, Drive ups the ante by veritably oozing style and cool out of every orifice. Take the atmosphere and the style, then add the film's perfectly executed balancing act: Drive is part crime drama, part romance, part action movie, and part one lucid dream, and every single part manages to slip effortlessly in and out of the others. This movie bleeds excellence.

Honorable mention: the hazy, surreal stylings of Sean Durkin for Martha Marcy May Marlene

Best Original Screenplay
5. Sean Durkin-Martha Marcy May Marlene
An impeccably structured waking nightmare that combines emotional honesty with creeping paranoia.
"Think of someone who hurt you, lied to you. Feel it. Feel how they made you feel. Let it build, let it transfer to the gun. Building in the gun. Breath out, release. Feels good, right?"

4. Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo-Bridesmaids
A fantastic blend of broad comedy, subtle wit, and frankly observed pathos.
Annie: You read my diary?
Brynn: At first I did not know it was your diary. I thought it was just a very sad handwritten book.

3. Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris
Funny, charming, intelligent, Midnight in Paris makes a compelling argument that Woody Allen is still one of cinema's more interesting writers, when he feels like it.
"I believe that love that is true and real creates a respite from death. All cowardice comes from not loving, or not loving well, which is the same thing. And when the man who is brave and true looks death squarely in the face like some rhino hunters I know, or Belmonte, who's truly brave. It is because they love with sufficient passion to push death out of their minds, until the return that it does to all men. And then you must make really good love again. Think about it."

2. Mike Mills-Beginners
Ornately structured, full of quietly observed personal moments. A perfect blend of humor, bittersweet determination, and abstract musing.
"I can really see Anna's eyes in 2003. Her ears, her feet. This is what it looks like when she says "I love you" in 2003. This is what it looks like when she cries. When she tells me there's always a new empty room waiting for her. They used to make her feel free. Now they make her feel the opposite of free."

1. Andrew Haigh-Weekend
Simply put, one of the most emotionally honest, achingly vulnerable constructions I've seen in some time. This movie speaks the way I wish I could speak.
Glen: Do you ever think about finding your real parents?
Russell: Not really.
Glen: Why not?
Russell: I don't really see the point. You know, I don't think it would change anything.
Glen: Why don't I pretend to be your dad and you can come out to me?
Russell: That is so weird.
Glen: Just ignore the fact we just had sex.
Russell: Don't think I can. Guess I'll try. Ok. Dad? I got something to tell you.
Glen: What's that?
Russell: I'm gay.
Glenn: Hmmmm.
Russell: I like guys, not girls.
Glen: Well, you know what, son? It doesn't matter to me. I love you just the same. And guess what?
Russell: What?
Glen: I couldn't be more proud of you if you were the first man on the moon.

Honorable Mention: the delightful, dog-filled antics of The Artist

Best Adapted Screenplay
5. Steve Kloves-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, based on the book by J.K. Rowling
Klove's script captures the heart of the book while streamlining it for uninitiated audiences, hitting a number of fresh insights on the way.
"It doesn't matter that Harry's gone. People die every day. Friends, family. Yeah, we lost Harry tonight, but he's still with us, in here."

4. Moira Buffini-Jane Eyre, based on the book by Charlotte Bronte
An adroit adaptation of a classic novel, reinterpreted and pruned without sacrificing the integrity of the original.
Rochester: Who's there? This hand. Jane Eyre.
Jane: Edward, I've come back for you. ...Fairfax Rochester with nothing to say.
Rochester: You're altogether a human being, Jane.
Jane: I conscientiously believe so.
Rochester: I dream.
Jane: Awaken, then.

3. Jason Segel and Nicholas Stoller-The Muppets, based on characters created by Jim Henson
Witty, light on its feet, true to the spirit of the original characters, and capable of wringing emotion and heart out of even the most used cliches.
Kermit: Guys, we can't kidnap Jack Black! That's illegal!
Fozzie: What's more illegal, Kermit? Briefly inconveniencing Jack Black, or destroying the Muppets?
Kermit: ...Kidnapping Jack Black.

2. Hossein Amini-Drive, based on the book by James Sallis
Takes a potentially tired story and reshapes it into a terse, unyielding take on the frog-and-scorpion fable.
"I used to produce a lot of movies in the 80s. Kind of like action films. Sexy stuff. One critic called them European. I thought they were shit. Anyway, he arranged all the cars for me. Did all the stunts. I liked him. I liked having him around, even though he overcharged the shit out of me. His next business venture, he got involved with some of Nino's friends. They didn't go for the overcharging bit. They broke his pelvis. He's never had a lot of luck."

1. Steven Zallian and Aaron Sorkin-Moneyball, based on the book by Michael Lewis
These two guys took a dry-for-non-fans nonfiction book about baseball statistics and turned it into a witty, heartfelt character study.
"I know these guys, I know the way they think, and they will erase us. And everything we've done here, none of it will matter. Any other team wins the World Series, good for them. They're drinking champagne, they get a ring. But if we win, on our budget, with this team...We'll have changed the game. And that's what I want. I want it to mean something.

Honorable Mention: the tightly wound, sharply observed prose of The Ides of March


Well, that's it for today. I'm off to do homework and contemplate the rosters for tomorrow's acting awards, which I *still* haven't sorted out. Anyway, how did I do? Did I really honestly put both The Muppets and Harry Potter in a category over fancier movies? Yup, I totally did, and I dare you to tell me what I should have put in instead.


Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Best of 2011, Part 1: Top 20, Zen Awards

I've got a problem. A compulsion. An (dare I say it) addiction. You see, I just start making lists and can't stop. Don't believe me? I've got proof. Sick, horrible, unnerving proof. And I'm going to drag you through it like a cheap hooker through motel-packaged bubble-bath. And I'm going to like it. If you really want to help me, you're going to have to stick it out until the bitter end (and hopefully leave a comment or two as well).
So, 2011 was a strange year for movies. I don't think anyone can claim that it was an incredibly strong year, at least in the arena of films that actually get distribution, and especially not in the type of Oscar-friendly prestige pics that clutter the winter release season. Prestigious-looking films came and went, the pained screams of their utter failure getting lost amid the general cacophony of year-end movie massacring. All that being said, I find myself almost inordinately fond of most the films near the top of the list, with the top six or seven leaving me in something resembling giddy euphoria. So let's get to it, shall we? Today, I'll just rattle off my top 20. If that seems too boring for you, stick around for the inevitable silly awards that will come after the list.
Note, in interest of transparency, here's a list of the movies I got to see this year. In alphabetical order: 50/50, The Adventures of Tintin, Albert Nobbs, Anonymous, The Artist, Attack the Block, Battle: Los Angeles, Beginners, A Better Life, Bombay Beach, Bridesmaids, Captain America: The First Avenger, Carnage, Cars 2, Cave of Forgotten Dreams, Contagion, Cowboys and Aliens, Crazy Stupid Love, A Dangerous Method, The Descendants, Drive, The Eagle, Extremely Loud and Incredibly CLose Final Destination 5, Footloose, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Green Lantern, Griff the Invisible, The Guard, Hanna, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Hell and Back Again, The Help, Hugo, I Saw the Devil, The Ides of March, Immortals, Insidious, The Iron Lady, J. Edgar, Jane Eyre, Kung Fu Panda 2, Margin Call, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Meek's Cutoff, Melancholia, Midnight in Paris, Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, Moneyball, The Muppets, My Week with Marilyn, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Project Nim, Rango, Real Steel, Rio, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Sarah's Key, Scream 4, Source Code, Super 8, Take Shelter, Thor, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, The Tree of Life, Trollhunter, Twilight: Breaking Dawn--Part 1, Senna, Shame, The Skin I Live In, Vincent Wants to Sea, War Horse, Warrior, Weekend, What's Your Number?, Win Win, Winnie the Pooh, X-Men: First Class, Young Adult
This year was a banner year for me--80 movies in one calendar year, largely thanks to Netflix. It was however, a really poor year for foreign films and I; I'm missing tons of high-profile titles, most notably A Separation, which I have to assume would feature in a ton of these lists, had I been able to see it by press time.
Ok, enough foreplay.

Honorable mentions: though they didn't make the list, I have a soft spot in my heart for the silent-film nostalgia and gorgeous color palette of Hugo, the unabashed blue-collar triumphs of Warrior, and the dramedic balance of 50/50.

The Best Films of 2011
20. Immortals (dir. Tarsem Singh)
Bold, beautiful, utterly bonkers. When I first saw this movie, I described it as a 'serial-killing, heroin-addled animaniac.' The description sticks. Throw in Tarsem's characteristically jaw-dropping visuals and enough homoeroticism to sink the Love Boat, and you've got something special.

19. Young Adult (dir. Jason Reitman)
I love this movie's misanthropy. I weaker film might have attempted to show some kind of reform, or tack on a happy, inspiring ending, but Jason Reitman's prom-queen-gone-alcoholic romp defiantly flips off the audience while giddily wallowing in its own desperate narcissism.

18. Shame (dir. Steve McQueen)
Undoubtedly one of 2011's bleakest offerings, McQueen's fable about a psychologically damaged sex addict and his screw-up sister is anchored by incredible performances by Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan, but manages to soar due to its patient, no-holds barred direction.

17. Senna (dir. Asif Kapadia)
Compiled entirely from archival footage, this rewarding documentary combines a lucid and moving character study of famed Brazilian race-car driver Ayrton Senna with a gripping rags-to-riches tale.

16. Take Shelter (dir. Jeff Nichols)
Here's a wonderful two-hour long look at paranoia, whose slow-burn and wire-tight atmosphere produced one of the most unexpectedly unnerving and compelling indie finds for me this year. Who knew the scariest movie of 2011 would be about building a storm shelter?

15. Melancholia (dir. Lars Von Trier)
Oh, Lars, how can I not love you? Though Melancholia's middle third is ultimately dead weight, its first and final parts, showing a wedding which rivals the mad macabre grandeur of the film's whimper-not-a-bang apocalyptic finale, are just brilliant. If the whole film were pitched at that level, Melancholia would be competing for the top prize here. Unfortunately, it's not, and I just can't love a film with 45 minutes of dead space. Still, when the film works, it's devastating.

14. Attack the Block (dir. Joe Cornish)
"This is too much madness to explain in one text!" Too true. Attack the Block, a manic and gleeful action film about a group of British hoodlums defending their block from alien invasion, has to be the most fun movie released this year. Seriously, go rent this. It's perhaps too insubstantial to take a higher place on the list, but it's so endlessly inventive and hilarious, with an utterly badass soundtrack thrown in, that I had to include it in my top 20.

13. Midnight in Paris (dir. Woody Allen)
Admittedly, Woody Allen can do better. That being said, Woody Allen at his best is almost impossible to top, so I'll forgive him. Midnight in Paris is effortlessly charming, sweet, and never once panders to its audience. This film figures that if the audience won't get jokes about Hemingway, Gertrude Stein, Luis Bunuel and The Exterminating Angel, and le Belle Epoque, than the audience doesn't deserve to laugh anyway. Points for Corey Stoll's dazzlingly zany interpretation of Hemingway.

12. The Muppets (dir. James Bobin)
If any movie this year can give Attack the Block a run for its money in the fun department, it's The Muppets. Though it leans heavily on nostalgia for the original Muppet gang, this 2011 iteration is chock-full of heart, sly wit, and enough creaky puns to make a legion of Statlers and Waldorffs slit their wrists. I'm going to be suggesting that we 'travel by map' for years to come, I think. On top of all that, The Muppets manages to wring genuine emotion out of its admittedly paint-by-numbers premise.

11. Bombay Beach (dir. Alma Har'el)
This is either the strangest or the most innovative documentary I've seen recently. Though ostensibly a non-fiction piece, Bombay Beach frequently segues into impressionistic performance art; the most striking example in my memory remains a sequence in which two love-struck teenagers, suddenly surrounded by candles, don blank-faced white masks and do a fluidly choreographed dance through a basketball court. While the visuals are gorgeous, what makes Bombay Beach hit home is its bittersweet narrative, which captures the lives of a community who are trying to close the gap between what they can imagine and what they can create.

10. Jane Eyre (dir. Cary Fukunaga)
I know, who'd have thought we needed another adaptation of the Bronte classic by now? The style Fukunaga brings to this version, however, sets it apart. From its effortlessly tactile atmosphere--damp moors, devastatingly quiet living spaces, stuffily oppressive parlors--to its quietly fragile heart and its carelessly carnal undertones, Jane Eyre reshapes a Victorian work for discerning contemporary audiences. Special mention must be given to the entire acting ensemble: Michael Fassbender and Mia Wasikowska are effortlessly compelling in the lead roles, but each part, Judi Dench's fussy made through Sally Hawkin's authoritarian cameo, integrate seamlessly into the whole.

9. Bridesmaids (dir. Paul Feig)
Trust me, I'm as surprised as you are that this raunchy comedy managed to hold onto this high a spot in the rankings. Sure, it's unbelievably funny, which helps. I still crack up thinking about Kristen Wiig's drug-fueled airline shenanigans ("It's civil rights. This is the 90s.") or the way Rose Byrne denies that she's an ugly crier. Bridesmaids isn't just funny, though; it's an intelligently written, smartly acted look at depression and self-pity, at the necessary evolution of friendship, at self-consciously pooping into a sink. Hey, I said it was raunchy, didn't I? Bridesmaids' comic and dramatic beats are skillfully covered by the most accomplished cast of the year; no performance goes wrong, and every single character is a valuable addition.

8. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (dir. David Yates)
What drives me nuts is that they waited until the very last film in the series to prove that they were capable of making really good movies. Forget War Horse: Harry Potter is the best 2011 British war film. This movie lives and dies by its 90-minute Hogwarts siege, which distills and bottles the sort of courage-against-impossible-odds that War Horse can only dream of achieving. The action scenes are stunningly well done, but what sticks with me are the fairly radical statements the film makes at the end. Sure, everyone gets the "words are our most inexhaustible source of magic" monologue, but Neville's big moment really grabbed my attention: how many war movies, or movies in general, respond to the *SPOILER WARNING* death of their main character by saying something along the lines of "who cares? Everybody's the hero of their own story." This movie. *END SPOILER* ...Ok, and admittedly, I'm sure my reaction to this movie was helped by the fact that the end of this movie put my childhood on a train to Hogwarts and will never, ever give it back. Whatever.

7. Martha Marcy May Marlene (dir. Sean Durkin)
A fascinating companion piece to Take Shelter, Martha follows a woman who may have physically escaped from her cult, but may never leave it mentally or emotionally. The disjointed style, non-linear storytelling, and most of all, the beautiful expressive performance by Elizabeth Olsen weaves a singular narrative experience in which reality is always one step away from descending into madness. The dreamy limbo the film achieves in its first half make the sudden violence of the second half seem far more shocking and disturbing than it has any right to. Martha Marcy May Marlene's tapestry of uncertainty of fear is topped off by what might be the most perfect ending to a film this year: utter ambiguity. I don't want to give it away, but the last two minutes, a seemingly innocent set of images made sinister by the preceding events, are met with one last terrified, uncertain face. We don't know what's happening, or what has happened, or what will happen in the future, but we don't need to.

6. Hanna (dir. Joe Wright)
Joe Wright, formerly an expert in British period pieces (Pride and Prejudice, Atonement) threw a curve-ball this year with Hanna, a stylish, bizarre, excitingly morbid fairy-tale of a film. If the Brothers Grimm tripped acid, their nightmares would look like Hanna; a story about a teenage girl raised in the Arctic with only an encyclopedia and a book of fairy tales to connect her to society at large. When she's let loose on the world as a trained assassin, all manner of hell breaks loose, not least in Hanna's attempts to relate to people her age who don't know how to skin a caribou, but do know the depreciation timeline of a good boob-job. Hanna's appropriately macabre stylizations are matched with breakneck pacing and dazzlingly assured cinematography. Marry that with wonderfully choreographed action, fantasy-trappings, and the year's best score, and you've got one of the most impressive technical achievements of the year.

5. Beginners (dir. Mike Mills)
Here's one I wasn't expecting. Though it sets itself up to be a fairly modest character study, Beginners reaches universal heights, mainly due to its unorthodox structure and incredibly intelligent script. On the surface, Beginners chronicles a son's attempt to relate with his elderly father, who has recently come out of the closet, as well as with his own stagnating love life. The film takes naturalistic interludes, however, betraying the director's origins as an artist; montages chronicling the history of love, anger, and the state of manhood in 1955 lend Beginners a higher vantage point from which it can regard the beautifully honest interactions of its characters. Ewan McGregor, Melanie Laurent, and especially Christopher Plummer give impeccable, delicately observed performances that elevate the film toward something resembling greatness.

4. The Artist (dir. Michel Hazanivicius)
Yeah, yeah, I know The Artist is kind of an obvious pick, but how can I deny something this incredibly joyful, energetic, and casually self-assured. The Artist resembles nothing more than its main character, silent film star George Valentin: cocky, sure, but utterly charming and confident of its place in the firmament. Its story might be well-worn, but The Artist manages to surpass its storytelling with an assortment of incredibly smart visual ideas, a fantastic lead performance, and two staggeringly well-placed sounds. Throw in a cute dog, and you've got something that's almost impossible to argue against. It might not be the smartest movie on the circuit, but the level of quality it achieves on its own terms is utterly beguiling.

3. The Tree of Life (dir. Terrence Malick)
Now we hop from (arguably) the most straightforward film on the list to the most defiantly inscrutable. The Tree of Life is Malick at his most abstract: it's a two-and-a-half hour long tone poem, contemplating the existence and character of a higher power, the place of man in the universe, the evolution of morality and desire, and the relative importance of one individual in the midst of infinity on either side, all while (theoretically) telling the story of a Texas boy's coming of age. I fully understand that some people might be turned off the twenty minute creation sequence, in which characters and dialogue are eschewed for supernovae, volcanoes, and cellular nuclei. Not only does this movie have dinosaurs (hell yes), but its dinosaurs spend all of their screen time making conscious moral decisions.That's just wacky, and I love it. Beyond the wackiness however, The Tree of Life manages to catch a slice of life that is both incredibly authentic and inexplicably surreal. Watching this film is like wandering through another person's memories. Or maybe watching this movie is like being able to see the the entirety of existence, all at once. I don't know. I can't characterize it. All I know is that it's a singular artistic achievement. Maybe the last ten minutes, involving Sean Penn wandering around a beach for too long, aren't successful, but what comes before the end is so staggering that it doesn't even matter.

2. Drive (dir. Nicholas Winding Refn)
If The Tree of Life has a companion, it's Drive. The two movies have almost nothing in common, other than the fact that they're both extremely bold artistic statements from two directors working at the top of their game. Drive is, above all, about style. It conjures up a lurid Technicolor fantasy land which looks like an 80s LA Michael Mann hallucination. Into this sleek world of white satin and neon strides The Driver, played by Ryan Gosling as the most compelling enigma to carry a film in recent memory. Drive varies between extremes: it's quiet for long stretches of time (outside of Aki Kourismaki movies, I've never seen a film with so much staring and so little dialogue), but then it rapidly veers into intensely brutal violence and pulse-pounding car chases. This movie is like a high-stakes street race. It waits at the light, engine purring, totally assured of its own coolness, before firing on all cylinders to scream to the next light, where it steps back and re-assumes its veneer of calm detachment. Drive announces the arrival of Refn as a director who can now command attention, and the establishment of Gosling as possibly the most interesting actor of his generation (not that Half Nelson, Blue Valentine, etc. hadn't done that already).

1. Weekend (dir. Andrew Haigh)
Full disclosure: it took me a while to put a film this seemingly modest above the one-two directorial punch of Tree of Life and Drive, but in the end, I had to go with my gut. Weekend joins Lost in Translation, Before Sunrise/Before Sunset, Brief Encounter, and others in the legions of heady, briefly realized romances between two people passing like ships in the night.Russell, a twentysomething lifeguard, hooks up with Glen, an art student, out of drunken habit on Friday night. The two spend the next two days talking, and the film itself has the courage to do nothing but let these two men talk. Eventually, it's revealed that Glen is moving to America at the end of the weekend, and their conversation takes on the bittersweet, elegiac quality normally reserved for people who've been told they've got a week left to live. While Weekend should be commended for its subtle demystification of gay relationships, its real strength is its blunt realism. This film strikes like a lightning bolt. There aren't any unnecessary confrontations, no tacked-on subplots, and the possibility of an implausible romantic-comedy-esque declaration of true love is immediately dismissed. What we get instead is an impossibly delicate, quietly observed snapshot of two existences which brush against each other before slipping away. Though, as a fairly short film comprised mainly of conversation pieces, it may appear modest, Weekend reaches depths of emotion and honesty that other films can only dream about.


...Geez, that took forever. I'm going to go get a cookie, and then we'll do something a little more lighthearted.

Best Scenes of the Year
(you're getting 11 this year, because I just can't bring myself to cut any more.)

11. Marcy's Song-Martha Marcy May Marlene
In one fell swoop, this film shows us just how easy it is to fall into this cult, and just how hard it would be to get out, when the cult leader (played by John Hawkes) sings to Marcy May. (It drives me nuts that I can't find this scene on youtube, but here's the song anyway: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogmJ2B41l2U&feature=related)

10. Surrealists-Midnight in Paris
Maybe it's because I'm an incurable Dali fan, but for me, the hands-down funniest part of Woody Allen's nostalgia romp was our time-traveling main character's run-in with a table of surrealists.

9. Container Park-Hanna
Here's the best example of Joe Wright's manic style, coupled with the fantastic fight choreography and the Chemical Brothers' rockstar score. Simply put, it's probably the best pure action sequence of the year.
(This clip is just a small piece, so it doesn't really convey the building tension of it all, but here's a taste anyway: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_jDK5Pwt4c)

8. Courtyard Apocalypse-Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Here's where the movie's earlier optimism is crushed, and the go-get-em enthusiasm that accompanies the beginning of any war is replaced with the second-to-second terror of just trying to stay alive. And the fact that it does so in such a visually impressive manner doesn't hurt.

7. Every Good Movie Ends With a Big Dance Number-The Artist
Boy, does this movie go out in style. Eschewing the frenetically edited musical numbers of today, The Artist sends its characters off with an Astaire/Rogers-esque classical tap number. It's so gleeful it hurts.

6. Coming-Home Party-Drive
Irene's husband comes home, cutting short the romance she and the Driver were cultivating. At his coming-home party, we're shown two people, separated by walls, by other people, by their relationships, by their own personalities, but the music makes clear that their minds are only one place.

5. Goodbye-Weekend
Russell and Glen, knowing full well that they're never going to see each other again, try to figure out how to say goodbye. Finally, Russell gives in and just give Glen a hug, finally acting out the feelings he's been scared of showing in public.
(Yeah, this movie probably won't even make it to DVD, much less Youtube, but hey, it's streaming on Netflix instant, so go watch it. Now. I'll wait.)

4. Civil Rights. It's the 90s-Bridesmaids
Poor Annie. Just when she thinks she's got the whole 'maid-of-honor' thing down, vindictive friend Helen spikes her alcohol, and this happens:

3. Gazebo Dance-Bombay Beach
I mentioned this already, but Bombay Beach's performance-art dance deserves mentioning twice. It's beautiful, it's innovative, and it says more about who these people are than any conventional documentary technique could.
(Again, not on youtube, but it's on netflix instant. Alternately, the trailer gives a brief look at this scene around the 1:26 mark.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J876cYfutg)

2. The Elevator-Drive
Yup, Drive strikes again. Just as the Driver is asking Irene to come away with him, everything flips on its head, as the violent events he's gotten wrapped up in finally find them, and he realizes the man he must become to save Irene is a man that can never, ever be with her. All this in a slow-motion ballet of romance and head-stomping. It's really impressive stuff.
(The only versions on youtube are ones with crappy alternate soundtracks, and since the music in this movie is so very, very important, I'm not posting an alternate version, because they suck. But seriously, you really ought to have seen this movie anyway.)

1. Creation-The Tree of Life
I get that most of the people who didn't like The Tree of Life cited this sequence as a reason. It's arbitrary, they say. It's pointless, it's slow, it's pretentious. At risk of sounding pretentious myself, these people don't get it. The slow, steady formation of a livable world is pretty much the entire point of this movie, and the visuals are absolutely stunning. I know they'll lose a ton of their impact when transferred to a computer screen, but when seen in a big theater, with that music thundering and the rafters almost literally shaking, this sequence inspires something resembling awe.
(If you're really committed, here's the first seven minutes of it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkUBECRoAwM. Alternately, here's a much briefer clip which is probably the prettiest part anyway: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WvuJwMFPz4. The fact that this wasn't nominated at the Oscars for best Visual Effects is just nauseating.)

Single Best Shot of the Year
Bahnhof Rumble-Hanna. In one incredibly ballsy and confident single shot, the camera follows agent-on-the-run Eric out of a train-station, down the street, into a subway station, and through a 5-1 street-brawl, before watching him leave the station again. The amount of planning/technical acuity required for this shot is just mind-boggling.
Here's a piece of it; it's not all of it, so you don't get to appreciate how long this shot goes, but still: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIaUqIucp5E

New Image Awards-for movies that show us something completely original and unique.
-Moral Dinosaurs-The Tree of Life. Yup, the dinosaurs are back. I know we've seen them in movies before, but how often do movie dinosaurs take time to consider how their actions will echo for eternity?
-Sky Fight Fresco-Immortals. While not a perfect film, Immortals' final image, a blue sky packed to bursting with brawling deities feels like a Da Vinci fresco mixed with a Hieronymus Bosch nightmare. I honestly gasped when watching this scene. Wish I could find it on youtube, but no dice.
-The Weed Room-Attack the Block. One assumes that the poorer sections of London are packed with drugs, but who knew they were grown in fortified safe houses at the top of apartment towers?

Best Inanimate Object in a Movie
-The Scorpion Jacket-Drive. For being thematically relevant, instantly inconic, and just really, really, really sexy.
-(on that note) Ryan Gosling's Abs-Crazy Stupid Love. I just...I don't. I can't even....Whatever. Not fair.
-George's Big Portrait of Himself-The Artist. For being charming, obnoxious, and a little sad, all at once.
-Carrot Cake-Bridesmaids. It's so good that cops are willing to fight raccoons for it.
-the NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO--OOOOOOOOOOOOOO--*.....*OOOOOOOOO Coin-X-Men: First Class. Sure, Magneto kills someone with it, which is appropriately badass, but I'm much more interested in how it got James Macavoy to scream for a full minute without stopping for breath.
THE WINNER: Jamie Bell's Harem Pants-The Eagle. There's not much in The Eagle worth seeing, but Jamie Bell wrestling in a pair of low-slung harem pants is definitely one of them.

The Child I'd Most Like to Punch in the Face with a Punch-Operated Shotgun
Dakota Goyo-Real Steel. Ok, being precocious is one thing, but when this little asshole starting speaking crappy Japanese, all I wanted to do was spend the rest of the day rubbing poop on everything beautiful in this world.

The "Not This Gay, but Dammit, You're Trying" Award for excellence in Homoeroticism
Immortals. Obviously. No guy in that movie wears more than a loincloth and a breastplate, and they spend all of their time rolling around on top of each other saying things like "Want to go south with me?"

Most Cringe-Inducing Element of an Otherwise Well-Written Film
I can only assume that the language barrier is the only thing that inspired Lars Von Trier to nickname Kirsten Dunst's character "Auntie Steelbreaker." Similarly, his vast misunderstanding of the the English word "cave" is the only explanation for the third-act teepee which is so very, very obviously not a cave.

Most Fashionable Headware for Birds
Immortals. Again. Man this movie is nuts, and I love it.

Best Instance of Enya-Related Torture in Which the Torture isn't Simply Listening to Enya
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Because what serial killer doesn't consider trying to rape a bound Daniel Craig before killing him while listening to Orinoco Flow?

Most Surprising Introduction of Very Large Boobies Which Honestly Kind of Looked Like Udders To Me
Albert Nobbs. Hey, I felt bad for the movie. I had to give it something, right? In other news, Janet McTeer has huge tits. Like, bowling ball huge.

Best Use of Chris Evans Clad Only in a Dishtowel
What's Your Number? One the one hand, this movie was so, so terrible. On the other hand, Chris Evans in a dishtowel. I'm so happy this movie exists.

And Finally...
The Worst Films of the Year!!
5. Cars 2
Like watching a redneck Jar Jar Binks murder his way through a crowd of unsuspecting toddlers. I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that Mater the Tow Truck is a member of the KKK. After the movie, he goes back to Japan and lynches EVERYONE. Plus, there was way more torture in this movie than I was expecting. Really, Pixar? Do better next time.

4. Green Lantern
Take a character with all the potential in the known universe, saddle him with being the watered-down piss poor version of Iron Man, and what do you get? Crappy motion-capture panties on a clearly bored Ryan Reynolds. I'll give someone a shiny new dime if they can explain why Peter Sarsgaard decided to do his whole role in his best Yoko Ono impression.

3. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Like any Michael Bay movie, Transformers is a three hour long treatise on how much Michael Bay doesn't respect women, masquerading as the world's most expensive army recruitment video. I hate this movie so, so much.

2. Battle: Los Angeles
An admittedly awesome concept that is quickly raped, killed, raped again, burned, raped once more for good measure, and then used to make Newt Gingrich's next terminally ill spouse. Someone should be punished for this movie.

The Peter Travers "Did I Really Just See That?" Award for Biggest Piece of Shit to Smear Its Way Across a Movie Screen
Twilight: Breaking Dawn--Part 1
I can never unsee this. A "vampire" performs a C-section with his mouth. An 18-year old werewolf gets to share a romantic montage with a baby. Kristen Stewart is visibly pregnant at 2 weeks. She never makes a facial expression, even when her boyfriend is ripping mutant spawn out of her disinterested vagina. I'm honestly not convinced that I didn't hallucinate this movie. Nothing this straight-up horrific and terrifying and anti-woman and pedophile-riffic could be such a mainstream hit, right? Right? ....Right?

What have we done?


Ok, I've been working on this for about three hours, so comment, because I desperately need someone to validate all this effort. DO IT. Please. What'd I get wrong? Right? Any Twilight fans out there?

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Oscar Nominations: Hit me harder, I can still hear them.

Oscar nomination morning is like Christmas: There's tons of build up and anticipation, but sometimes the things you wanted just aren't under the tree. Such is the case this year. Oh well. Let's get to it, shall we? I'll put an asterisk next to the ones I predicted correctly.

Best Picture
The Artist*
The Descendants*
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help*
Hugo*
Midnight in Paris*
Moneyball*
The Tree of Life*
War Horse
Nine nominees, and they managed to fit at least three mediocre films in there. Kudos, I guess? When I said that I figured Extremely Loud... had to show up somewhere, I didn't really mean it to this extent. They could have made worse choices for best picture, but not by that much. Toss in The Help and War Horse, and we've got some stunningly uninteresting choices. All I can say is thank goodness The Tree of Life made it in.
Early winner prediction: The Artist

Best Director
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris*
Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist*
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life*
Alexander Payne-The Descendants*
Martin Scorsese-Hugo*
Five for five, and yay Terrence Malick! I'm so happy he got recognized here. And I suppose this lineup could be worse. It's hardly the lineup I would have picked, but at least the unholy trinity (Help, Extremely Loud..., War Horse) didn't show up here.
Early winner prediction: Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist

Best Actor
Demian Bichir-A Better Life
George Clooney-The Descendants*
Jean Dujardin-The Artist*
Gary Oldman-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt-Moneyball*
This was a hugely surprising category this year. It's fun to see Bichir and Oldman in here, but certainly not at Michael Fassbender's expense *despair*. At least Leonardo Dicaprio didn't make it in!
Early winner prediction: George Clooney-The Descendants

Best Actress
Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs*
Viola Davis-The Help*
Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady*
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn*
Well, Rooney Mara slides in after all. I haven't seen Tilda Swinton's performance in We Need to Talk About Kevin, so I'm not sure how disappointed I should be. Similarly, I haven't seen Albert Nobbs, so I can't show as much annoyance at Glenn Close getting in as other bloggers can. Give me time though; I'm sure I'll come to hate it as much as the next guy.
Early winner prediction: Viola Davis-The Help

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn*
Jonah Hill-Moneyball
Nick Nolte-Warrior*
Christopher Plummer-Beginners*
Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
I hate, hate, hate that Albert Brooks missed for Drive, particularly when Jonah Hill did, in fact, make it. Y'know, I originally had Von Sydow in my predicted five, but then I saw the movie and thought there was no way it would happen. Maybe I saw a different movie than the Academy?
Early winner prediction: Christopher Plummer-Beginners

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo-The Artist*
Jessica Chastain-The Help*
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs*
Octavia Spencer-The Help*
How strange is it that we can now call a performance that involves pooping into a sink an oscar-nominated achievement? Not that I'm complaining. I love Bridesmaids, so I'll take anything it can get. I'm a little surprised that Shailene Woodley/The Descendants missed, but them's the breaks.
Early winner prediction: Octavia Spencer-The Help

Original Screenplay
The Artist*
Bridesmaids*
Margin Call*
Midnight in Paris*
A Separation
Really surprised that 50/50 didn't make it here, but it's really fun to see A Separation get in. Ditto Bridesmaids; if Kristen Wiig can't break into the lead actress race, the least she deserves is a writing nomination.
Early winner prediction: Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants*
Hugo*
The Ides of March
Moneyball*
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy
No Help? This morning definitively showed us that The Help might not have been the Oscar Juggernaut we were all expecting, and that Tinker, Tailor... had more support than originally anticipated. Glad to see The Ides of March make it; it's not a great movie, but it is a well-written one.

Art Direction
The Artist*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*
Hugo*
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
A few surprises here. I though Midnight in Paris had a chance in a tech category, but I figured Costume Design was its most likely place. Also did not expect War Horse to make it in, because it relies so heavily on exteriors instead of elaborate sets. And since they're in the same category, I think this is a good time to float my opinion that Harry Potter is a far more interesting British war movie than War Horse. Just saying.
Early winner prediction: Hugo

Costume Design
Anonymous*
The Artist*
Hugo*
Jane Eyre*
W.E.
As I expected, the Academy just couldn't turn down Anonymous's Elizabethan antics, nor, apparently, could they turn down nominating at least one awful movie per year in this category. Hello W.E.!
Early winner prediction: Hugo

Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*
Hugo*
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes*
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
What the hell is Real Steel doing here? And at the expense of The Tree of Life? This is the worst. How did The Tree of Life not make it here? This makes me sad.
Early winner prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*
The Iron Lady*
Yay Harry Potter! I really wish Harry Potter had showed up in more places this morning, but I'll just have to celebrate it landing wherever it can.
Early winner prediction: The Iron Lady

Film Editing
The Artist*
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*
Hugo*
Moneyball*
Not sure I'm thrilled with this category. I probably should have predicted The Descendants in this race. The fact that it showed up here means it's not yet dead in the Best Picture race.
Early winner prediction: The Artist

Cinematography
The Artist*
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*
Hugo*
The Tree of Life*
War Horse*
I'm fine with most of these nominees (Tree of Life!), but I really see no need for War Horse to show up here at the expense of more competently shot films. Such is the draw of Spielberg, I guess. Even when he doesn't do his best, his movies are still awards magnets.

Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist*
Hugo*
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse*
I suppose I'm ok with this lineup. My favorites, like Hanna and Attack the Block never had a chance here anyhow, though I'm sad Harry Potter didn't make it here. I almost predicted Tinker, Tailor, but switched at the last minute because 'Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close' had to show up somewhere. ....Well, it did. At 48%, that movie's got to have just about the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of any Best Picture nominee ever.
Early winner prediction: The Artist

Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo*
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
War Horse*
Moneyball showing up here suggests a hitherto unsuspected love for that film among the Academy. Does that mean something? Is it going to sneak in and steal screenplay or actor from The Descendants? I hope so, honestly.
Early winner prediction: War Horse

Sound Editing
Drive
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
War Horse*
Drive's nomination, its only one of the morning, almost feels like a slap to the face. I mean, I'd like to say it's better than nothing, but I might have preferred it to have been ignored by the Academy, rather than tossed one little bone. I'd like to further lament the absence of Harry Potter in the sound categories. Someone really needs to explain to me how Hugo's sound design is more deserving of recognition.
Early winner prediction: War Horse

Original Song
"Man or Muppet"-The Muppets
"Real in Rio"-Rio
Only two nominees, and I didn't guess either of them correctly. That's got to be some kind of record for me. On a related note, why on earth are there only two nominees?
Early winner prediction: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

Animated Film
A Cat in Paris
Chico and Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2*
Puss in Boots*
Rango*
In a move I should have anticipated, arthouse fare dominated this category, in a year when most of the studio stuff failed to impress. As expected, Tintin failed to show up here, most likely due to the branch's dislike of motion-capture animation. I'm glad Cars 2 didn't make it--it was pretty awful, and the last thing Pixar needs is validation for acting on their worst instincts.
Early winner prediction: Rango

Foreign Language Film
Bullhead-Belgium
Footnote-Israel*
In Darkness-Poland*
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada*
A Separation-Iran*
Israel continues its spectacular nomination streak in this category, and A Separation continues its march toward Oscar glory. Surprised to see Bullhead here: I haven't seen it, but allegedly it's a thoroughly atypical nominee, so that's fun.
Early winner prediction: A Separation

Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again*
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory*
Pina*
Undefeated
Really, really surprised that Project Nim didn't make the cut, sad that We Were Here didn't, and excited for Pina.
Early winner prediction: I have no idea. ....Paradise Lost, maybe?


Note: of the main nominees (ie not animated, foreign, or documentary), I haven't seen Albert Nobbs, Margin Call, A Separation, W.E., or Real Steel. Margin Call is sitting on my TV right now, so I'm confident I'll be able to see that one, and I'm sure Albert Nobbs will stagger into theaters in the near future. The others? I'm not sure if I'll be able to pick them up before Oscar night.

This was not a good prediction session for me. I missed a ton. Probably because I was expecting the Academy to be a little more interesting in their choices. My mistake, I suppose.

Here's a list of the 10 most nominated films:
1. Hugo-11
2. The Artist-10
3. Moneyball-6
4. War Horse-6
5. The Descendants-5
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-5
7. Midnight in Paris-4
8. The Help-4
9. The Tree of Life-3
10. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy-3

And here's a list of some notable films that didn't get any nominations: Shame, J. Edgar, We Need to Talk About Kevin, 50/50, Win Win, Super 8, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Captain America: The First Avenger, Arthur Christmas, Take Shelter, Cars 2, Young Adult, Melancholia, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Coriolanus, Immortals, X-Men: First Class, Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, Hanna, Weekend, Attack the Block, Thor...Big list this year, and I'm sure there are other's I'm not thinking of.

Well, what do you think? Obviously, I'm a bit disappointed, but how about you? Good things? Bad things? Sound off in the comments.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Summing it Up

Alright, back again. Oscar nominations come out in roughly 22 hours, which means that in 22 hours no one, including myself, will be thinking about what was predicted so much as what actually happened. Until then, though, we get to continue to have fun trying to read the tea leaves. Today, I'm just going to collect everything in one place: I'll offer up all my predictions, in order of likelihood and without commentary, and only allow myself one alternate. Incidentally, I know it's strange to write so much about predicting the Academy's best-of-the-year picks without talking about my own, so know that my own 'best of 2011' lists are coming down the pike. I've just got a few more movies I need to see. I imagine I'll get those lists up somewhere in early to mid February. Before the Oscars, anyway. Just know for now that If I could automatically guarantee a nomination, I'd have to choose between Michael Fassbender for Actor, Charlize Theron for Actress, and The Tree of Life for Visual Effects. If I could automatically prevent a nomination, it would be Leonardo Dicaprio in Actor, and while I'm not actually predicting it to happen, I'm sending plenty of "please don't be nominated" vibes Jonah Hill's way as well.

Note: Since I've posted them, I've changed four predictions: In Supporting Actor, I've kicked Viggo Mortensen out of the top 5 and replaced him with Nick Nolte, in Original Screenplay I've replaced Win Win with Margin Call (and made Win Win my alternate instead of A Separation), and I've changed the alternates for Original Score and Animated Film.

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
Alternate: War Horse

Best Director
Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist
Martin Scorsese-Hugo
Alexander Payne-The Descendants
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life
Alternate-David Fincher-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Actor
George Clooney-The Descendants
Brad Pitt-Moneyball
Jean Dujardin-The Artist
Michael Fassbender-Shame
Leonardo Dicaprio-J. Edgar
Alternate-Michael Shannon-Take Shelter

Best Actress
Viola Davis-The Help
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin
Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs
Alternate-Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer-Beginners
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks-Drive
Nick Nolte-Warrior
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March
Alternate: Jonah Hill-Moneyball

Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Berenice Bejo-The Artist
Jessica Chastain-The Help
Shailene Woodley-The Descendants
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs
Alternate-Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids

Original Screenplay
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
50/50
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Alternate-Win Win

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Moneyball
The Help
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Art Direction
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Help
Alternate: War Horse

Costume Design
Hugo
The Artist
Jane Eyre
The Help
Anonymous
Alternate: W.E.

Visual Effects
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
Alternate-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Makeup
The Iron Lady
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternate-The Artist

Film Editing
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
War Horse
Alternate: The Descendants

Cinematography
The Tree of Life
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Original Score
The Artist
War Horse
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Sound Mixing
Hugo
Super 8
War Horse
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternate-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Sound Editing
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Alternate: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Original Song
"Life's a Happy Song"-The Muppets
"Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets
"The Living Proof"-The Help
"Star Spangled Man"-Captain America: The First Avenger
"Lay Your Head Down"-Albert Nobbs
Alternate: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

Animated Film
Rango
Puss in Boots
Kung Fu Panda 2
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Alternate-The Adventures of Tin Tin

Foreign Language Film
A Separation-Iran
In Darkness-Poland
Footnote-Israel
Omar Killed Me-Morocco
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada
Alternate-Pina-Germany

Documentary Feature
Project Nim
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Hell and Back Again
We Were Here
Alternate-Buck

There we have it! Tune in tomorrow to see everything that I got wrong!

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Craft Categories

Alright, here's my last salvo of predictions. Today, we're going to tackle all the craft categories. Because there are ten of them, and because they're not the kind of races I can analyze with certainty like the major categories, I'm going to try to keep commentary fairly brief. Here goes!

Art Direction
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Help
Alternates: War Horse, The Tree of Life

So the top three are definitely in. The bottom two aren't as set, but Tinker, Tailor has to show up somewhere, and I imagine The Help is going to rack up a pretty impressive nomination total. War Horse and The Tree of Life both have support, but I don't think it's enough. For some more adventurous options, they might consider Pirates of the Caribbean or Captain America. Alternately, if they're feeling less adventurous, Anonymous might slide in.

Costume Design
Hugo
The Artist
Jane Eyre
The Help
Anonymous
Alternates: W.E., Captain America: The First Avenger

Hugo and The Artist are golden. Jane Eyre and The Help are solid enough, and I can't imagine the Academy not responding to all the frills in Anonymous. It kind of bugs me, not having a wacky nomination in there, which is why W.E. is so close to the top. I'd like to think they're adventurous enough to do something like Captain America or (even more unlikely/more fun) Thor or Immortals, but chances are they might spring for something more traditional like My Week with Marilyn instead.

Visual Effects
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
Alternates: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Captain America: The First Avenger

Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think The Tree of Life's spectacular creation scenes are going to find a home here. It's probably more likely that a more standard, CGI-driven affair will take the 5th spot instead, but I can hope, can't I? Incidentally, the Academy has already narrowed this category down to ten finalists. The other three possibilities are Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, X-Men: First Class, and Real Steel. Either of the first two also have a strong shot for the 5th spot, which is really the only one up for grabs.

Makeup
The Iron Lady
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternates: The Artist, Hugo

Similar to the Visual Effects category, this one has been narrowed to seven finalists. The Iron Lady is full of very competent aging makeup, so it's in. When something as obscure as Gainsbourg makes the top seven, then it's not a good idea to bet against it going all the way. That leaves one spot, which I imagine will be carried by "last chance to reward it" sentiments for Harry Potter. Watch out for The Artist, though. The other two finalists that I have yet to mention are Albert Nobbs and Anonymous, but I can't see either of them making it. This category is notoriously finnicky, though, so who knows what's going to happen?

Film Editing
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
War Horse
Alternates: The Descendants, Drive

This category tends to go for best picture hopefuls and the occasional action movie. As such, I really ought to have The Descendants in the top 5, but I have a hunch that Moneyball will make it in. Maybe War Horse isn't in the top 5? Dunno. If it's going to get nominated anywhere, it's probably here. Extra cool points to the Academy for nominating Drive or The Tree of Life; both possible, but unlikely.

Cinematography
The Tree of Life
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Alternates: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

The top three (maybe four) spots are completely locked in. War Horse looks awfully vulnerable, but I'm leaving it for now. Either Tinker, Tailor's icy lensing or Harry Potter's attempts at iconic imagery could easily sneak in here. Possible Drive or Moneyball, but don't count on it. I feel like this category's primed for a really surprising nominee, but I've no idea what it would be. Which makes sense, given that it's a surprise.

Original Score
The Artist
War Horse
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alternates: The Help, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

This category's really tough. I'm only 100% confident on The Artist. All the other slots could be taken by the alternates, or by Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Adventures of Tin Tin, Jane Eyre, The Skin I Live In, or some other mystery soundtrack. Who knows? I've got Extremely Loud here because that movie's got to end up in some category, and this seems like the safest call. Shame the composer, Alexandre Desplat, isn't taking the spot for his more effective work on Harry Potter.

Sound Mixing
Hugo
Super 8
War Horse
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternates: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

I honestly think the sound categories are the absolute hardest categories to predict this year. I'm prepared to only get one or two right come Tuesday morning. Watch out for Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, Hanna, and The Adventures of Tin Tin, just to name a few.

Sound Editing
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Alternates: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

I just might go 0/5 in this category. It's that tough. Rango, Hugo, and The Adventures of Tin Tin linger on the edges.

Original Song
"Life's a Happy Song"-The Muppets
"Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets
"The Living Proof"-The Help
"Star Spangled Man"-Captain America: The First Avenger
"Lay Your Head Down"-Albert Nobbs
Alternates: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets, "Hello Hello"-Gnomeo and Juliet

I hate predicting this category. Its nomination process is bizarre (it involves a ten-point ranking system), the number of nominees isn't set (there could be 2-5 nominees, or no nominees at all), and the Academy never follows a pattern. That said, two Muppet songs are in (but only two, because that's the limit on nominations in this category for each movie). Past that? I don't know. These five have seemed like the most likely choices for about five months now, which of course means that at least one of them is wrong. Possible spoilers include "Bridge of Light" from Happy Feet 2, "Where the River Goes" from Footloose, "The Keeper" from Machine Gun Preacher, and "Think You Can Wait" from Win Win.


There we have it! I'll put all my predictions in one place tomorrow, but for now, they're all done. I just need to wait and see what I've gotten wrong! And really, being wrong is probably half the fun of predicting Oscars anyway.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Acting

What better way to spend your Saturday than familiarizing yourself with some Oscar hopefuls? Read this, figure out what sounds good, and go see a movie. I'm here to help. ...Also, to predict, but I help too. Anyhow...

Best Actor
Finally, a race that makes some sense to me. The lead races are pretty easy to figure out this year, which will be a fun contrast to the hellish nightmare we'll get to enjoy with the supporting categories. I honestly think the top 5 are pretty much set here. The top three spots--George Clooney in The Descendants, Jean Dujardin in The Artist, and Brad Pitt in Moneyball--aren't going to be changing any time soon. Honestly, I don't think the last two spots will either. Leonardo Dicaprio's probably in for J. Edgar; sure, the movie got poor reviews, but so did Clint Eastwood's Invictus, which went home with two acting nominations. Bad reviews never stop the Academy from giving out "meh, you tried" nominations. Michael Fassbender is probably also in for Shame. Now, I've been hearing talk of a Fassbender snub recently, but I'm just not buying it. Admittedly, I might not be buying it because I really love the performance and am letting my own tastes get in the way, and I recognize that both the performance and the film are hardly typical Oscar fare. That being said, who's going to push him out? Surprise nominations are usually garnered by small, spunky independent contenders who are critically respected but underseen, and they tend to knock out bigger, more obvious contenders. If anything, Dicaprio's more vulnerable than Fassbender, because Dicaprio's primed to be upset by an underdog, whereas Fassbender is an underdog, at least when it comes to being a standard Oscar movie. If there is an upset, who would it be? Maybe Michael Shannon in Take Shelter, who is the only one who could do it; I don't see either Demian Bichir in A Better Life or Gary Oldman in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy making it, regardless of what other bloggers would have me believe. Nope, I'm confident with my top 5.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
George Clooney-The Descendants
Brad Pitt-Moneyball
Jean Dujardin-The Artist
Michael Fassbender-Shame
Leonardo Dicaprio-J. Edgar
Alternates: Michael Shannon-Take Shelter, Demian Bichir-A Better Life

Best Actress
Here's the funny thing: this category is almost the same as lead actor. Swap out the names, repeat the argument, we're good to go. Top three spots--Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams/My Week with Marilyn--are golden. Bottom two are spots are filled with a scrappy indie not-traditionally-oscar contender (Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin) and a "meh, you tried" nomination (Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs). The only difference between these two categories is I'm more open to the idea of one of the slots changing. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has been coming on really strong the past couple weeks, which could help Rooney Mara immensely. I could easily see her stealing one of the more fluid bottom slots. That being said, I think Swinton's this-nomination-is-really-an-apology-for-not-noticing-you-in-Julia-and-I Am Love narrative, as well as Close's ahmygawd-Glenn-welcome-back-at-least-you-got-the-movie-made will defeat Rooney's "exciting new ingenue" flair.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Viola Davis-The Help
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin
Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs
Alternates: Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Charlize Theron-Young Adult

Best Supporting Actor
I hate this category so, so much. I know exactly one thing: Christopher Plummer is a lock for Beginners. The rest? I've no clue whatsoever. Anyone could get it, and I still don't even know who I want to predict. So I'm just going to list all twelve possibilities (yup, twelve, and all of them have a good shot) and hope that when I'm done, I'll have made a decision or two. In alphabetical order:
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn:Here's about as close to another lock as it gets. I don't understand what people love about this performance, but apparently they do. Oscar loves famous people imitating other famous peoples, Branagh's Olivier should succeed here.
Albert Brooks-Drive: I used to be way more confident here, but Brooks has missed some important precursors. Maybe the Academy just isn't cool enough to reward Drive? I really hope that's not the case.
Armie Hammer-J. Edgar: If J. Edgar feels like repeating Invictus's Oscar history, this could happen; Hammer is admittedly the best thing about this movie, and he's got Leo's coattails to hold onto.
Jonah Hill-Moneyball: I acknowledge that I really ought to predict Hill in this category, but I just don't want to. It's not right, dammit. Besides, I've got a hunch that he'll miss. Or maybe my hunch is just a hope.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March: If Hoffman gets in for this, one of his laziest, most repetitive performances, I'm going to scream. Still, The Ides of March has got to show up somewhere, and Hoffman is a tried and tested default nominee. *sigh*
Ben Kingsley-Hugo: I really, really thought Kingsley's campaign would take off more. He's a respected former nominee, playing a famous person who is the emotional backbone of the best segment of Hugo. That being said, he's shown up in almost none of the precursors. I guess people have just forgotten him.
Viggo Mortensen-A Dangerous Method: Mortensen scored a surprise Golden Globe nomination for this category, which resuscitated his campaign, but no one seems to be talking about this movie.
Nick Nolte-Warrior: About once a decade, people seem to enjoy Nick Nolte's work. He's been nominated for a lot of supporting awards this season, but I can't shake the feeling that Warrior might be forgotten altogether.
Patton Oswalt-Young Adult: Here's another movie that's been forgotten. Sure, Oswalt's charming and fairly deserving, but voters just aren't responding to his film.
Brad Pitt-The Tree of Life: Maybe this is wishful thinking, or maybe people will be voting for Moneyball and will remember just how good Pitt was in this film as well.
Andy Serkis-Rise of the Planet of the Apes: Hey, it could happen. He's earned a bunch of awards/nominations on the precursor circuit. That being said, I can't see the Academy rewarding an entirely motion-capture performance just quite yet. I'd love to be wrong, though.
Corey Stoll-Midnight in Paris: I'd love for this to happen. Stoll's Hemingway is easily the most memorable part of Midnight in Paris, and the movie has done very well for itself thus far. Could he be the big surprise?
Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: About three hours ago, I was pretty sure I was going to put Von Sydow in the top five. Then I saw the movie. Not only are the reviews brutal, Von Sydow's character isn't around much, and doesn't have much to do with the time he's given. Still, I suppose he could slip in on residual love for other movies.
Y'know, that didn't help at all. I've got no idea who to predict. Oh well. I'm just going to start typing and we'll see what happens.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Christopher Plummer-Beginners
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks-Drive
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March
Viggo Mortensen-A Dangerous Method
Alternates: Jonah Hill-Moneyball, Nick Nolte-Warrior, Corey Stoll-Midnight in Paris
(Yeah, I get three, because I'm so lost. I honestly didn't even have Hoffman or Mortensen in my top 10 until about 30 seconds ago. Just watch-it's going to be Hill and Nolte. I know it. Shoot.)

Best Supporting Actress
Well, that was embarrassingly long. Supporting Actress is also very difficult to predict, but refreshingly so, in that there are only 6 women still in the running. The problem is that only one of them is safe. That's Octavia Spencer for The Help. She's won a Critics' Choice award and a Golden Globe, so she's in. The other five women? Any of them could do it. They are:
Berenice Bejo-The Artist: She's essentially a co-lead in the Best Picture front-runner, and it doesn't hurt that she's fantastic. I feel confident that she'll make it in.
Jessica Chastain-The Help: This category has a penchant for picking two women from the same movie, and Jessica Chastain has had one hell of a year, with great performances in this, The Tree of Life, Take Shelter, Coriolanus, etc. Unfortunately, all those great performances might work against her; if voters can't decide which movie they like best, she'll split too many votes between all her various roles.
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids: It's so fun that we can even consider this. Sure, she hardly gives my favorite performance in the film, but it would be such a wacky, atypical Oscar nomination that I don't even care. That being said, the wacky, atypical-ness of it all is her biggest problem right now.
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs: People don't like this movie, which hurts, but apparently McTeer steals the show (which I haven't seen yet), which helps. Plus she's the only former nominee still in the running, which has to give her a leg up.
Shailene Woodley-The Descendants: She's in a popular film, and she's quite good, but she's just so young. Are they going to want to reward a 20-year old whose only known for being in The Secret Life of the American Teenager, or will they make her wait?
...I should probably briefly mention Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus. Allegedly, it's an incredible performance, but the film's just not being seen, and the people that do see it don't like it. If anyone surprises in this category, it'll be her; just don't count on it.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Berenice Bejo-The Artist
Jessica Chastain-The Help
Shailene Woodley-The Descendants
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs
Alternates: Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids, Vanessa Redgrave-Coriolanus

Phew. That was much longer than anticipated. I completely forgive you for not reading the whole post. Tomorrow, I'll post some brief thoughts on all the craft categories, and then we'll wrap it up Monday!

Friday, January 20, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Directing and Screenplays

Back again! Let's knock a few more categories off the predictions list, shall we? First up:

Best Director
To begin with, this category has three mortal locks: Michel Hazanivicius for The Artist, Alexander Payne for The Descendants, and Martin Scorsese for Hugo. None of these guys are going anywhere. That, in my mind, leaves four directors competing for two spots. They are:
-Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris-Admittedly, I should probably have Allen in the 'lock' category. People love this movie, and he's hit all the right precursor awards. Still, I'm having the tiniest bit of doubt about the Academy rewarding the director of something so light on its feet and seemingly effortless (no matter how hard effortless is to do) as Midnight in Paris. I'm sure he'll get in, but I'm not 100% sure, so he's not a lock.
-David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-Whether this nomination happens depends on A) just how sorry they are for The King's Speech, and B) whether or not enough voters stick up for more unorthodox choices, or if people just go with the previously established consensus. Not to say that Dragon Tattoo is conventional Oscar bait; it's just an easier choice than, say...
-Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life-This movie is, above all, a director's achievement, and I really hope the Academy will recognize that. Still, as I mentioned in my last post, The Tree of Life is hardly an Oscar-friendly film.
-Steven Spielberg, War Horse-I don't really think this is going to happen. I definitely could be underestimating War Horse, however, and if I am, then Spielberg could still slide in here.
-Other remote possibilities: if The Help becomes an Oscar juggernaut (god help us), then expect to see Tate Taylor here. Alternately, if the directors' branch feels really, really adventurous, we could see Nicholas Winding Refn show up here for Drive. While the directors used to give out plenty of left-field directing nominations, they haven't done anything this out-there since Fernando Meirelles and City of God in 2003 (...though I guess you could make an argument for Mike Leigh/Vera Drake in 2004 and Paul Greengrass/United 93 in 2006).
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist
Martin Scorsese-Hugo
Alexander Payne-The Descendants
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life
Alternates: Davind Fincher-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Steven Spielberg-War Horse

Best Original Screenplay
Man, this category is driving me crazy this year. So Midnight in Paris and The Artist are safe. Past that, I've really got no idea. On the comedy end of the spectrum, we've got 50/50, which has done surprisingly well at the precursors, Bridesmaids, which I expect to show up somewhere on nominations morning, and Young Adult, whose Diablo Cody/Jason Reitman pedigree is excellent, but it just hasn't performed the way it should have. Since Oscar voters rarely respond to comedy (although that happens most frequently in this category), we should look at the drama options: Todd McCarthy has had success in this category, so his new dramedy Win Win could show up. Asgar Farhadi's A Separation could've had this nomination locked if it released earlier, but their 'hold onto it until December 30th and then just hope' release strategy backfired, so now I'm not so confident. The Tree of Life is bound to be honored somewhere, but I can't see Screenplay being one of those places. Still, you never know. Finally, we've got some unlikely indie contenders: Beginners could make it in on the coattails of Christopher Plummer's Oscar campaign, ditto Take Shelter and Michael Shannon and Michael Fassbender and Shame, and maybe Martha Marcy May Marlene could still have gas in its tank, but I doubt it. And we haven't even mentioned Margin Call yet.
...Y'know, after writing out an embarrassing amount of options, I still have no idea what to predict. Good grief. This category is just ridiculous this year.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
50/50
Bridesmaids
Win Win
Alternates: A Separation, Margin Call

Best Adapted Screenplay
Here's a category I'm much for comfortable with, because it's just stacked with Best Picture heavyweights, which means all I have to do is pick a few. The Descendants and Moneyball are definitely in. Meanwhile, Hugo and The Help get in on the strength of their Best Picture campaigns, despite not being praised for their writing. That leaves one slot. Conventional wisdom suggests The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo gets in because it's the next strongest Best Picture contender, but sometimes the writers will pick an outside choice like The Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, or even Drive. I don't think any of those have enough support to distinguish themselves from each other, though, and when none of the smaller movies have passionate enough support, the consensus choice gets in.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Descendants
Moneyball
The Help
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternates: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Ides of March


That just about wraps it up for today. I'm going to leave off acting predictions for tomorrow, because by then I'll have finally gotten around to seeing Shame. So come back tomorrow for what's got to be the second-hardest (hardest? That'd be Sound Mixing) category to predict this year.