If there 's one thing that can be said, it's this: this year's Oscars can't be worse than last year's All of the categories will be presented on TV (rather than on twitter an hour before the Oscars, thus abandoning the whole concept of celebrating filmmaking in favor of more time spent with people talking--on the Oscars stage--about how boring and meaningless the Oscars are), Shaun White won't be 10 miles of the ceremony, no last-minute "best popular" movie category has been added to throw at Zack Snyder, and no one (hopefully) will assault someone on camera and then be applauded for it ten minutes later. (Jesus, last year's Oscars really were a catastrophe.)
So if we aren't going to watch a train wreck to rival the fateful circus pile-up that launched Steven Spielberg's career, what will we be watching? As for the ceremony itself, who knows--the Academy has been remarkably tight-lipped this year, as if by hiding what they're doing, they can keep us from being horrified by the choices they've made until it's too late. (We do know that Lenny Kravitz is going to perform during the In Memoriam segment, which...sure?) But the awards promise to be some wacky combo of bizarre, volatile, wacky, and infuriating. It seems as though I say this every year, but this year for real seems to offer more instability and potential for surprises than most in recent memory. While that might not be true for the headliner category, keep reading to find literally a dozen categories that will be a nail-biter until the envelope is opened, and at least one potential winner that is sure to send me into the wood screaming, finally fulfilling my destiny and becoming the wild wailing woods hermit you all have known me to be all along.
However things shake up (and however they shake up will almost invariably be counter to what I imagine them to be), I'm happy to shepherd you through the gilded madness. This hasn't necessarily been the most conflict-free 12-15 months of my life, and part of wondered if this was the year that I'd stop doing these posts at all--who had the time, the mental and emotional capacity, and, uh, two functioning arms?--but the Oscars have been a constant in my life for so long, and I'm thrilled to preserve that to some extent, and that you're along for the ride. I should note that, unlike the past few years, I haven't been able to see a fair number of the nominees--an unfortunate side effect of being mostly unable to go to the theater (either for medical reasons or distance ones) for the last two months, which deflated my desire to sit through online nominees if being a completionist wasn't a motivator. But still, I've seen most of them, so I'll note what I haven't seen when it comes up, and let my heart pull me in the wrong direction everywhere else.
So let's get to it! Do note that I predict more for fun than
I do for accuracy. There are lots of sites online that can help you ace your
Oscar pool, but I'm going to use my space to encourage the Academy to release
the hounds.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
The much-vaunted instability that I mentioned certainly will not start here--at this point, anything but Everything Everywhere All at Once would be a massive shock. Everything Everywhere won the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Screen Actors Guild awards--and no movie to win all three has ever lost this--in addition the Critics Choice awards, setting a record at the Indie Spirits, etc. It's become an entire phenomenon, and one of the main questions to be answered right down the line is to what extent it can break the no big sweeps for best picture winners rule of the last decade. It doesn't help that none of the other nominees aren't totally plausible as winners. All Quiet and Elvis have momentum (All Quiet won a record-breaking number of awards at the British equivalent of the Oscars), but both have statistics working against them. Almost no movie has won best picture without being nominated in at least three of four big categories (directing, acting, writing, editing), and both are missing two or three of those--plus, All Quiet isn't in English. And sure, Coda won missing two of those nominations last year, and Parasite won despite not being in English three years ago, but both were unprecedented, and I don't know if those precedents will be broken again so soon. That leaves Banshees, Tar, Fabelmans, and Top Gun, each of which had early momentum and each of which has faltered in their own ways. You can predict an upset, but it's a huge risk. Instead, we can take a second to appreciate how strange, wild , and unique a winner Everything Everywhere will be.
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: The Fabelmans
Should Have Been Here: Aftersun
Director
Todd Field-Tar
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund-Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans
Copy and paste the same argument as above with just a little more wiggle room. It's true that the Academy has been prone to picture/director splits recently, but that's most frequently in the space of a particularly notable ambitious or artistic work taking director from a more commercial or conventionally made best picture. This year, the big commercial work just happens to be one of the loudest/most ambitious directorial statements, so I suspect they'll stick together. Still, look to Steven Spielberg or Todd Field to take this if Everything Everywhere isn't nearly as beloved as we suspect.
Will Win: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Todd Field-Tar
Should Win: Todd Field-Tar
Should Have Been Here: Charlotte Wells-Aftersun
Actress
Cate Blanchett-Tar
Ana de Armas-Blonde
Andrea Riseborough-To Leslie
Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once
A very clear two-person race: Cate Blanchett had all the early momentum, steamrolling through the majority of the televised prizes, but enthusiasm for Everything Everywhere and Michelle Yeoh has crescendoed at exactly the right time, with her winning a maybe telling Screen Actors Guild award last weekend. It could go either way--Cate Blanchett feels like the more 'traditional' winner (as silly a word as that is to use for Tar) but Yeoh seems to have the momentum on her side. Flip a coin and/or cross your fingers.
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Cate Blanchett-Tar
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Here: Emma Thompson-Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Actor
Austin Butler-Elvis
Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser-The Whale
Paul Mescal-Aftersun
Bill Nighy-Living
Exact same situation above, with a close race between the early champ (Fraser) and the momentum-shifting late challenger (Butler). Fraser's moving comeback narrative might help him take the victory, but then again the Academy's obsession with giving Oscar to famous people playing other famous people greatly benefits Butler. So does Elvis' general across-the-board strength vs. The Whale's muted Academy support. Some people have suggested that Colin Farrell has a chance to split the difference and slip through for a beloved performance in a beloved movie, but if he couldn't win the British Academy award (home turf, so to speak), what are his chances of pulling it off here?
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
Hong Chau-The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All at Once
One of the two or three most difficult categories to call, in no small part because everyone seems impossible as a winner. Bassett and Curtis are working from the same playbook--hugely respected and liked actresses with the chance to finally get their due in the kind of movie or role totally antithetical to the Academy's normal tastes (in this case, a Marvel movie or a small comedic role whose biggest moments occur whilst wearing hot dog fingers). Curtis might benefit from the Everything Everywhere love that seems to be cresting--as might Hsu, for that matter, whose memorable role in that movie certainly shouldn't be counted out. But if either of them wins, Everything Everywhere might be in danger of winning three acting Oscars: something that has only happened twice (On the Waterfront and Network). And are we ready to claim that Everything Everywhere is ready to join that echelon of most-beloved Oscar movies of all time? That could tip the balance in Bassett's favor, or possibly in the direction of the 'safe' choice, Kerry Condon. She has the most traditionally Oscar-y role of the bunch, and this could be the likeliest place for Banshees to win an Oscar--and given it has nine nominations, they clearly dig it, and might be looking to reward it. Still, You could predict anyone but Hong Chau here and have a good chance at being right.
Will Win: Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
Could Win: Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Hong Chau-The Whale
Should Have Been Here: Nina Hoss-Tar
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway
Judd Hirsch-The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
In contrast to the last category, this is one of the easiest of the night to predict. Almost impossible to imagine that Ke Huy Quan loses this.
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Here: Paul Dano-The Fabelmans
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
Two-horse race between Banshees and Everything Everywhere. Banshees wins if they want to value dialogue more, and if they don't want it to go home empty-handed, and Everything wins if they value unique premise/originality more, and if they're caught up in the Everything Everywhere love. Fun trivia note: this is the first time that the director and original categories have lined up exactly, and each of the directors of these movies also wrote the screenplay.
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Tar
Should Have Been Here: Petite Maman
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Reporting that All Quiet on the Western Front has a good chance to win this is one of the worst things I've ever had to do, but that's where we are--I'm in the trenches, and I'm not even going to get a retroactive adaptation about how it was actually France's fault all along. But All Quiet has come out of nowhere as a big Oscar player (a narrative we'll be forced to discuss for the rest of this post), so I can't pretend that it couldn't walk to victory amid a fairly low-key field. Its biggest competition is certainly Women Talking, a cerebral and dialogue-heavy meditation on timely themes written by a well-respected filmmaker has gotten her due--not difficult to see that as a winning narrative here. If Top Gun hadn't lost all its momentum, I'd argue it would be a bigger threat here, and if I suspected that more Academy voters were wont to say 'hey, it's Nobel Prize Laureate Kazuo Ishiguro! Let's give him an Oscar!,' I'd suggest that Living had a stronger chance, but I really think it's between All Quiet and Women Talking.
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Living
Should Have Been Here: Fire Island
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Another near impossible category, with only one movie (The Fabelmans) truly out of it (...then again, we also said that about Spielberg's Lincoln in this category in 2012 and it won, so). If you're looking purely at best picture momentum, All Quiet and Elvis have the advantage. If you're looking for the big, glitzy set-pieces that this category frequently rewards, look to Babylon and Elvis. If you're looking for visual spectacles that might impress voters enough to vote for them here, consider All Quiet and Avatar. If yon want to throw your hands to the sky and wail, get in the wailing line with the rest of us.
Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Babylon
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Have Been Here: Mad God
Costume Design
Bablyon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Significantly less sky wailing here, though there's still room for a good sky whimper. Elvis has the advantage of 'most' costumes, Black Panther has the most eye-catching costumes, and Everything Everywhere has memorable work in a potential Oscar-sweeping movie. The first two seem your likeliest bets, though I'm awfully tempted to call this for Everything Everywhere. Still, I think all the recreations of famous looks in Elvis will be enough to carry it across the finish line.
Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Have Been Here: Glass Onion
Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Deceptively simple: Avatar takes it in a walk, right? Well, yes and no. Avatar kind of fell on its face, Academy-wise. and when that happens, no amount of decade-in-the-making effects wizardry can save you from movies with more best picture buzz. So yes, the odds are still (probably) in Avatar's favor, but if you expect All Quiet or Top Gun to make a play for the top prize (or to supplant Elvis as the big craft sweeper), then look to this category to watch it begin.
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Have Been Here: Mad God
Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
More close races! I told you that the categories were gonna be nuts down the line. The simple logic is this: whichever movie you picked to win for best actor wins this award (unless you picked The Banshees of Inisherin, in which case woe betide). There's a compelling case to be made for All Quiet to take this category if it becomes a real craft juggernaut, but I feel (somewhat) confident that the best actor makeup transformation goes hand in hand with respect for the performance, and that the whole process will take two Oscars.
Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: The Whale
Should Win: The Batman
Should Have Been Here: Crimes of the Future
Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
What was previously Top Gun's category to lose has begun to look more and more like Everything Everywhere's to lose. Definitely pick that one here if you're imagining (like I am) that Everything Everywhere come away a big winner, and pick Top Gun if you suspect that Everything Everywhere is too weird or frenetic for Oscar's tastes. There's maybe a chance for Elvis to upset--and look for it to do so if you think it's going for best picture--but otherwise this is fairly cut and dry.
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Here: Aftersun
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tar
Very much All Quiet's to lose. Another spot for Elvis to push the frontrunner off its pedestal and gain momentum towards a best picture win, but I'm not sure I would count on it. Sidebar: if Elvis were to win, Mandy Walker would become the first woman to win in this category, the only one a woman has never won.
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Elvis
Should Win: Tar
Should Have Been Here: EO*
*I haven't seen Bardo
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
An absolutely maddening category--arguably hardest to predict, give or take supporting actress? Any one of these nominees has a near-equal chance of taking it, by my estimation. Babylon and All Quiet two most non-traditional but attention calling scores here. Babylon cannot function without the energy and chaos the score brings, and Justin Hurwitz is a two-time winner, so clearly they like him--but can any of those factors overcome the fact that people neither saw nor liked the movie? All Quiet's score was derided to some extent for being anachronistic and sticking out, but those very elements mean that everyone who saw the movie probably remembers its music, and if they want an easy place to reward a movie they clearly love, this is it. Ditto for Banshees of Inisherin, a 'traditional' film score in a popular movie written by a well-loved composer who has never won before, which has all the makings for a win. You could argue that The Fabelmans benefits from those same elements (well-liked movie with a traditionally pretty score and only one easy place to give it an Oscar), plus the inherent draw of giving John Williams one final Oscar. And then there's Everything Everywhere All at Once, which probably has the least compelling winning argument here, but is also part of a movie that might win an absolute clown-load of Oscars, which in the right year is a winning argument in and of itself.
Basically I have no idea, and now I'm going to weep into my pillow a while.
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Babylon
Should Have Been Here: Nope
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Remember when Top Gun was going to be a multi-Oscar winning massive best picture threat? Now it's barely holding its head above water, scrabbling to win an Oscar or two while bigger competitors walk towards it with a flamethrower. I think Top Gun could still pull it out here (and not go home empty-handed), but All Quiet is breathing reeeeaaaallly heavily down its neck, and Elvis is definitely creeping somewhere in the wings.
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: The Batman
Should Have Been Here: Nope
Original Song
"Applause"-Tell It Like a Woman
"Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick
"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"Naatu Naatu"-RRR
"This is a Life"-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Somehow, "Naatu Naatu" has gone from a 'wouldn't it be fun if it were nominated' pipe dream to a seemingly unstoppable competitor in this category. Some people have argued that Chadwick Boseman sentiment (as well as the thrill of having Rihanna return to music just to the Superbowl and the Oscars, in that order) will lead to Black Panther's song triumphing, but I'm...skeptical? If Chadwick Boseman sentiment were as strong in the Academy as it were online, then they probably would have given him the Oscar in 2020 rather than giving it to Anthony Hopkins before the ceremony slinked off ignominiously into the night. Still, it's an upset waiting in the wings.
Will Win: "Naatu Naatu"-RRR
Could Win: "Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: "Naatu Naatu"-RRR
Should Have Been Here: "The Whale"-Inu-Oh*
*I haven't seen Tell It Like a Woman
Animated Film
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Probably a no-brainer--Guillermo Del Toro's Pinicchio crawls like a horrible wooden crab puppet up to the stage to shriek in its posh little voice about how no one is safe. But the fact that it was widely expected to show up in a number of categories (score, sound, screenplay, maybe even picture) and then fell on its face suggests that there is some (small) upset potential. Marcel the Shell seems like the likeliest candidate, but I wouldn't count out Puss in Boots, which had an absolutely astounding theater run based on word of mouth and is more loved than we might expect.
Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Could Win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Should Win: Turning Red
Should Have Been Here: Mad God
International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany
Argentina, 1985-Argentina
Close-Belgium
EO-Poland
The Quiet Girl-Ireland
Easiest call of the night. No movie ever nominated in both this category and best picture has ever lost this category, and if we're talking about All Quiet as a legitimate threat to win best picture, there's no way it can lose here.
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany
Could Win: Argentina, 1985-Argentina
Should Win: Close-Belgium*
Should Have Been Here: RRR-India
*I haven't seen Argentina, 1985 or The Quiet Girl
Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Navalny has emerged as the one to beat in the last couple weeks, displacing previous frontrunner All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. My months-long hunch that All That Breathes would be the stealth winner is seemingly coming to not, as is Fire of Love's popularity and support. Still, my instinct suggests that Navalny is not as ironclad a frontrunner as we're supposed to believe. So if you have a hunch, maybe now is the time to play it.
Will Win: All That Breathes
Could Win: Navalny
Should Win: Fire of Love*
Should Have Been Here: Riotsville, USA
*I haven't seen All the Beauty and the Bloodshed or A House Made of Splinters
And that's that! Currently, I've got Everything Everywhere all at Once as the biggest winner with six Oscars, but so many categories are still wide open; it's anyone's guess what happens. (Watch, now All Quiet on the Western Front will sweep all nine of its nominations and my heart will explode from rage.)
Well, whatever happens, it can't be worse than last year....I hope.
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