Oscar Nominations 2022: Raise Your Hand if You Have Ever Been Personally Victimized by a WW1 Movie

 

(source)

Ok, maybe I'm being a little melodramatic. I said yesterday that I was having an off-consensus year, and viewed through the lens of being somewhere between miffed and mortified by so many of the potential big contenders, things could have been much worse. Top Gun underperformed in most of the right places (though it still got a nomination for its screenplay, which is, uh, a bold and creative choice), The Whale underperformed, Black Panther excelled where it should have without making us scratch our heads to much thinking about it as a best picture nominee, and only like...two of my current bottom five of the year got nominated for anything. Granted, only two of my current top 10 got any kind of big support, but what can you do? The answer, of course, is spend the next 10,000 years screaming about the fact that my personal nemesis, All Quiet on the Western Front, was nominated for nine (nine!!!) Oscars this morning. And I plan to scream, but I'll try to leaven that by celebrating all the fun and groovy surprises this morning, of which there were many. 

Maybe the biggest story of the year is the triumph of commercial fare, with the two highest grossing films of the year (Avatar and Top Gun) making it into best picture--the first time this has happened since 1982, the third highest grossing film of the year (Black Panther) garnering the most nominations for a movie not nominated for best picture, and other financial successes like Elvis, The Batman, and nomination leader Everything Everywhere All at Once (the little indie that could, making $100 million worldwide) doing great. That's not to say that no tiny movies thrived this morning (Andrea Riseborough is surely on a dirt bike right now, wheelie-ing her way into the history books), but it's striking to see such a robust morning for studio fare. Now, if the Oscar telecast ratings are low again, maybe the Academy will finally realize that ratings aren't tied to the nominated films as much as they are that live TV and awards shows in general are in decline.

But enough context--let's look at the nominations! I'll put an asterisk next to the nominations I predicted correctly, but my silliness might have gotten the better of me this year, so they may be few and far between.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Avatar: The Way of Water*

The Banshees of Inisherin*

Elvis*

Everything Everywhere All at Once*

The Fabelmans*

Tar*

Top Gun: Maverick*

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Not at all surprised that my RRR moonshot from yesterday came to naught, but I am surprised how (relatively) strong a showing Triangle of Sadness managed after seeming to be totally out of the race. Ditto Women Talking, which clung to life here despite missing almost everywhere else. Overall, this list is...fine? It's maybe not my dream lineup, but it's a nifty snapshot of the year, and there's more than one option to pick for an interesting winner.

Early winner prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Director

Todd Field-Tar*

Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin*
Ruben Östlund-Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans*

Östlund was one of the biggest surprises of the morning for sure (and one I'm still wrangling with, given my fraught relationship with his body of work). Daniel Kwan is now the fifth Asian director nominated in four years--a wild and spectacular statistic, considering only four Asian men (Hiroshi Teshigihara, Akira Kurosawa, M. Night Shyamalan, and Ang Lee) had been nominated in this category in the rest of the Academy's history. Spielberg also ties for the second most nominated director of all time with this, his ninth nomination.

Early winner prediction: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Actress

Cate Blanchett-Tar*

Ana De Armas-Blonde*

Andrea Riseborough-To Leslie

Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Yesterday, I called Riseborough's late-breaking Oscar run a publicity campaign for the movie, and I am happy to eat my words. Also happy to see Michelle Williams make it--it's not my favorite performance of her career (or in the movie), but I, uh, tend to go pretty hard for The Fabelmans. Also worth noting that Michelle Yeoh becomes the first ever Asian woman to be nominated in this category.

Early winner prediction: Cate Blanchett-Tar

Actor

Austin Butler-Elvis*

Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin*

Brendan Fraser-The Whale*

Paul Mescal-Aftersun*

Bill Nighy-Living*

Probably my biggest clapping/whooping outburst came from hearing Mescal's name, who gives a fantastic performance in a fantastic movie. Conventional wisdom suggests that Fraser and Farrell fight to the death now, but will the Academy's love of biopics and Elvis, which garnered 8 nominations, bring Butler the win? This category contains all first-time nominees, the first time that's happened in best actor since 1934--and this time is certainly more noteworthy, given the pool of prior nominees was much smaller in 1934, less than a decade after the Oscars began. The acting categories in general were dominated by first time nominees: a full 16 out of 20 slots went to first-timers.

Early winner prediction: Brendan Fraser-The Whale

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*

Hong Chau-The Whale

Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin*

Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All at Once

The most volatile category ended up with more of a bang than a whimper, with the final slots going to supporting players acting next to threats to win the lead races and two performers from the most nominated film. ...I mean that relatively, of course, given this category also contains the first acting nomination for a Marvel movie and a performance whose most emotional moments come when that character has hot dogs for fingers. So it's still pretty wacky and volatile, and not just in its content--I'd argue that any of these women but Chau has a shot to win.

Early winner prediction: Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin*

Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway

Judd Hirsch-The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin*

Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Thrilled for Brian Tyree Henry, whose well-deserved nomination was starting to look like a lost cause. What does poor Paul Dano have to do to make the Academy love him? Whose grandmother did he run over? Every Oscar season narrative he gets seems to end in sixth place. Still, I am over the moon that Barry Keoghan finally has an Oscar nomination for being one of the most rewardingly weird guys in front of a camera right now, and I'll be delighted to watch Ke Huy Quan get his Oscar.

Early winner prediction: Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin*
Everything Everywhere All at Once*

The Fabelmans*

Tar*

Triangle of Sadness*

The same five that have shown up everywhere in the precursors showed up here as well, and they're not a bad bunch. The way looks clear for the Banshee/Everywhere showdown that was always going to happen. Does the movie that wins this category win best picture? Maybe? Probably?

Early winner prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front*
Glass Onion*

Living
Top Gun: Maverick*

Women Talking*

I've kept the All Quiet screaming to a minimum, but let me just say that this getting in for its adaptation is absolute lunacy, and I will never, ever get over it. If you follow me on letterboxd (which you should do! Find me here), then you can read the couple thousand words I wrote on why the book is a miserable and ethically dubious take on an anti-war book. But if you don't, let me sum up my feelings by banging my head against the wall for eight years. Given All Quiet's presence, I don't even have enough emotional bandwidth to be as annoyed as I should by Top Gun's presence. Weird year for this category, huh? Women Talking has seemed like the undisputed frontrunner here for months, and still might be. But while it would be stupendous to see Sarah Polley with an Oscar in her hands, I'm deeply nervous that one of those other two movies (the ones that have me banging my head against the wall) will swoop in and take it from her.

Early winner prediction: Women Talking (but I'm not convinced)

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Avatar: The Way of Water*

Babylon*

Elvis*

The Fabelmans

Pretty strong lineup, all things considered. Vaguely surprising for Everything Everywhere to miss this, given how much the Academy clearly loved it. Also fun to see The Fabelmans show up more than I'd hoped it would (it scored seven nominations to my predicted five). Guess they loved all those period TVs in the living room?

Early winner prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

Costume Design

Babylon*
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*

Elvis*

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris*

God bless Mrs. Harris, who now gets to add Hollywood to her list of travel destinations. Additional blessings for Black Panther--I'm not the sequel's biggest fans, but if it didn't score here I was ready to swallow an entire rack of Victorian gowns in protest. Both this race and Production Design look like they'll come to Babylon vs. Elvis, with special spoiler Literally Anything Else.

Early winner prediction: Elvis

Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Avatar: The Way of Water*

The Batman*

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick*

Color me furious and disheartened that Nope didn't manage a nomination here (or anywhere, which is dumb and bad), especially to make room for Black Panther's limpid faux-underwater skullduggery. This category (among others) showcases that the Academy will always love a Batman movie more than a Marvel one (unless it's Black Panther). Not that I'm complaining--I also would have picked The Batman over the Marvel output this year in most categories. I'll also take this opportunity to point how poorly Avatar fared across the morning, only landing in the default spots. The second movie in a trilogy (or series, I suppose) tends to struggle with the Academy, but this Avatar struggled more than most.

Early winner prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water

Makeup and Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman*

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis*

The Whale*

Signs here for how much they loved All Quiet on the Western Front (not that we're wanting for signs), given how rarely gore makeup plays for this category, as well as for the level of enthusiasm for Black Panther (landing both here and in visual effects was something that the original movie failed to do). You have to imagine that it was close to cracking the top 10, right?

Early winner prediction: The Whale

Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin*

Elvis*

Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Tar

Top Gun: Maverick*

Probably a solid snapshot of the potential best picture winners (while you don't have to be nominated in editing to win best picture, it definitely helps), and a real slug-fest between Most Edits between Elvis, Everything Everywhere, and Top Gun.

Early winner prediction: Top Gun: Maverick

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Bardo*

Elvis

Empire of Light*

Tar

Far and away the category most deeply besotted with chaos on this Oscar morning. Top Gun, the uncontested frontrunner in this category, had been hoovering up every cinematography prize known to man (and some to animals) and seemed guaranteed to do the same at the Oscars, until the cinematographers scampered down their runway and pushed all those planes back into the abyss. What's left is a wide-open race with some intriguing and horrifying choices. Will Roger Deakins win a third Oscar for coastal British nightmare Empire of Light? Will All Quiet add to its pile of Oscars for having so much fun fetishizing the ugliness of war? Will Mandy Walker, only the third woman ever nominated in this category, become the first ever woman to win for Elvis? I don't know that Elvis would be my personal pick, but cinematography is the only Oscar category that has never been won by a woman, so I might root for it anyway. Also, let's take a moment to celebrate Tar's below the line strength, getting (somewhat) unexpected nods here and in film editing. Wondering whose child Lydia Tar berated at school to make this happen.

Early winner prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon*

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans*

Feels like a grim category, even if I love the Babylon score, dig the Fabelmans score (normally I'm against the constant John Williams default nods, but this felt like his best work at least since Munich in 2005), and think the others are all at least .... palatable? But given the nominations that could have been, I'll reserve the right to pout a bit. (Sidebar: I have got to stop predicting Michael Abels as the surprise nominee for a Jordan Peele movie. I've done it three times now, with no success.)

Early winner prediction: Babylon

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Avatar: The Way of Water*

The Batman

Elvis*

Top Gun: Maverick*

Well, this category is nothing if not loud. Thrilled to see The Batman's gloomy and teeth-gnashing sound work get in, and the rest is fine, I suppose, if you're into explosions. 

Early winner prediction: Top Gun: Maverick

Original Song

"Applause"-Tell It Like a Woman*

"Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick*
"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*

"Naatu Naatu"-RRR

"This is a Life"-Everything Everywhere All at Once

As always, Diane Warren rises from the depths, trident in hand, come to claim her prize for writing a song for a movie that snapped into existence two days ago. I swear, one of these years, the Academy will stop making crawl into the depths of the internet to find this year's dour Diane Warren-backed project. But it won't be this year, which means I'll have to sit myself in front of Tell It Like a Woman. "Naatu Naatu" becomes the very first Indian song to be nominated for this year (which feels impossible, given the presence and prevalence of Indian musicals, but here we are). It's also, as chance (or something else) would have it, the only song on this list that is not an emotional ballad played over the end credits. A big emotional credits ballad can be a huge asset to a movie (Celine Dion didn't sink that Titanic for nothing), but it would also be neat to see at least one or two songs that play a role in their film as well.

Early winner prediction: "Naatu Naatu"-RRR

Animated Film

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio*

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On*

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish*

The Sea Beast

Turning Red*

Blessings be, my nightmare Pinocchio (a character that made me physically recoil in fear and horror, and a film that I've since decided I didn't like at all), only showed up here, when some people were predicting it for as many as four or five nominations (including best picture). Thankfully--for me, at least--the spooky posh little log boy remains trapped in his prison. Something of a shock to see The Sea Beast muscle past its higher profile competition, but not an entirely unpleasant one. But speaking of unpleasant, now I have to be the single man in his mid 30s who walks up to a ticket booth on a Thursday at 1.35 and says hi, can I get one for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

Early winner prediction: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany*

Argentina, 1985-Argentina*

Close-Belgium*

EO-Poland

The Irish Girl-Ireland*

The big shock here is South Korea's Decision to Leave missing out, which is obviously a bummer. But I'll admit that I can't really pick what it should replace, as I haven't seen most of these (and the one I have seen I can't stand, so). Fun to see Ireland get its first nomination with a Gaelic-language film, and even more fun to see EO show up to represent the year of the cinematic donkey. (So many high profile donkeys in movies this year. What do they know that we don't?)

Early winner prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany

Documentary Feature

All That Breathes*

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed*

Fire of Love*

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

Again, I can't comment too much here, given how unacquainted I am, but I love to see the gorgeous and altogether wonderful Fire of Love finding a spot here. 

Early winner prediction: All That Breathes

Of the non-specialty categories (i.e. not animated, international, or documentary), I've seen most of the nominees already, missing only Blonde, To Leslie, Living, Bardo, and Tell It Like a Woman. These might already be enough to shatter my hopes of seeing all the nominees before Oscar night, as I missed Living in theaters and it's not available elsewhere yet, and Tell It Like a Woman apparently doesn't exist. Exactly 30 people have logged it on Letterboxd, and it only has 47 ratings on IMDB--like, if the entire crew went onto either of those sites, it'd have more than twice those numbers. The other categories look even worse. I've seen all the animated movies but Puss in Boots, which is waiting for me at my local multiplex, but have only seen on each of the international and documentary nominees. Of those eight movies, only Argentina, 1985 and Navalny are currently available to me. While I'm hopeful that more of these movies will become easier to access now that they're Oscar-nominated, I won't keep my hopes too high. Unfortunately, this year I moved to somewhere with much worse indie theater infrastructure than where I lived before, and then I didn't have a car for a lot of the prime period when movies like these were in theaters. So I'm afraid I'm a bit behind the eight ball, but I'll still try and check off as many of these as I can.

Predictions-wise, I found myself somewhere in the middle. I only completely nailed best actor and adapted screenplay, but I also flubbed original score with only two correct guess. Still, the rest of the categories went well enough, so I'll live to predict again. 

For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once-11

2. The Banshees of Inisherin-9

3. All Quiet on the Western Front-9

4. Elvis-8

5. The Fabelmans-7

6. Tar-6

7. Top Gun: Maverick-6

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever-5

9. Avatar: The Way of Water-4

10. Triangle of Sadness-3

Definitely a spread the wealth kind of year, with only one movie hitting double digits, and even then only just. 

And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: The Woman King, She Said, Decision to Leave, A Man Called Otto, The Inspection, Till, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Menu, White Noise, Bones and All, Nope, Corsage, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Amsterdam, Moonage Daydream, Inu-Oh, Wendell and Wild, Strange World, Saint Omer, Return to Seoul, Joyland, The Territory, Mad God, The Northman, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Catherine Called Birdy, Crimes of the Future, Pearl, Barbarian, The Lost City, You Won't Be Alone, Three Thousand Years of Longing, Moonfall

You win some, you lose some.

And there we have it! What are your reactions? What makes you furious, thrilled, or horrified? As always, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I love the Oscars and all the silly little things that come with them, and every year before the nominations I have trouble sleeping, like a kid before Christmas. It's silly and stupid, but something ought to be.

Oscar Predictions 2022: Just Keep Filming, Kid

At some point in the years following 2020, I'm going to have to start this intro about something other than the interminable and impossible passage of time (how can it be 2023 when my new iPhone 6 clearly says that is 2015 at the very latest), the collective limbo we're all doing our best to crawl out of, and how the concepts of movies and moviegoing continue threatening to swallow themselves whole. And maybe, just maybe, 2024 will be the year that I write something new (relevant contemporary news events like Godzilla crawling his way out of the depths and finding everything above the water distasteful, or maybe aliens will turn out to be real, but really boring to talk to), but in this, the year 2023, I'm going to lovingly tape my broken record back together and lament the fact that a) it is 2023, b) time is meaningless, and c) oh god, the movies, who will save the movies, etc. 

I can't help but see all this reflected back in this year's movie slate, though, which featured a quietly staggering number of films about filmmaking, the continued relevance of film, stardom, or even art in general, and how Hollywood should perceive itself and its own checkered history. Again and again this year, we got to watch directors staging the act of looking everything that entails. But, as Jordan Peele taught us in Nope, the great flying sky eyeball/anus comes for us all, and there's nothing to do but grit your teeth, point your camera, and get ready to be pulled into the sky.

The real (and most important) question, however, is which of these movies will get showered in little golden men before they get swallowed whole? Well you're in luck, as I have been, if for nothing else, been put on this Earth to regale you with Oscar facts and opinions until I pass out from the exertion. And I'm already pulled out a preemptive fainting couch, as these year's Oscars are poised to be absolutely silly. We find ourselves in a post-covid (well, post-lockdown, as there is no post-covid) movie slump in which fewer movies are being produced and even fewer movies are making their way to theaters (this year saw only two thirds the number of wide releases as 2019 did), which means that the Academy will either have to stretch to find small and weird movies it wouldn't have previously considered, or it's going to take a deep breath and toss its biggest awards at what seem to be the only movies left in theaters--big franchise fare. And as it turns out, we might be in for a good bit of both. The 2022 Oscars might see the three highest grossers of the year all nominated for best picture--something that has never even once happened--but it might also see a wider than average slew of tiny indies and international fare bolster its ranks. Who's to say? (Me, I'm to say.) As for my own preferences, I'm finding myself in an off-consensus year, where very little that I truly loved is poised to do much more than fight for scraps, and plenty of nominations could be coming that will make me want to reach inside of my head and pull my eyes back into my skull like horrified little turtles.

At any rate, there's a huge amount of room for shock and upheaval, and also plenty of room to take the easy way at every opportunity and turn in some of the dullest Oscar noms in recent memory. Fingers crossed for the former, and pitchforks prepared for the latter. But while we wait to find out, I'll go ahead and dump all my predictions into one irresponsibly large post. Bear in mind that I predict for fun just as much as I predict for accuracy--there are plenty of places on the internet to go if you're looking for stone-faced predictions, but there are only so many places to turn to if wanted someone to photoshop Sammy Fabelman into Nope and then make some butt jokes. And of all the butt jokes in all the world, you walked into mine, so let's work with what we've got.

(note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood--so the first movie listed is the most likely, the second the next most likely, etc.)

Best Picture

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

Top Gun: Maverick

The Fabelmans

Tar

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Whale

RRR

Alternate: Women Talking

The first six are all solid locks, led by Everything Everywhere which, in the course of eight months, has gone from silly daydream to the most-embraced a sci-fi martial arts absurdist comedy family drama with a whole fight about who gets to put a little statue up their butt movie has ever been. Avatar and All Quiet aren't quite as safe, but both make sense (at least in a precursor sense--I've no idea how or why All Quiet got this powerful, but just the idea of it scoring here makes me beg for the sweet embrace of death. That leaves two slots with a ridiculous number of strong contenders. The Whale seems like an easy choice (it's done well at the precursors, is beloved in the real world even if it's hated online, and all the older women at my screening were audibly weeping during it, which feels like a reliable bellwether). So what's left? You've got a few awards-friendly movies whose critical and audience reception wasn't what was hoped for with Women Talking and Babylon, you've got muscular and respected (if not loved) commercial choices like The Woman King, Glass Onion, and Black Panther, and you've got fringe-ier choices with deep pockets of passionate support like Triangle of Sadness, RRR, and Aftersun. And...I had hoped that listing all these options would help me decide what to put in that ninth spot, but it didn't. Smart money says Women Talking, but I've got a gut feeling that it'll miss. So while we're sticking with our guts, I'll do something very silly and add RRR into the top 10, even if it has limited chances anywhere else--surely enough voters will have seen it and decided that any movie in which a protagonist wields a tiger as a melee weapon deserves a spot at the top.

Director

Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans

Todd Field-Tar

Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin

James Cameron-Avatar: The Way of Water

Alternate: Edward Berger-All Quiet on the Western Front

Unless the Academy throws some huge curveballs (and they might--I've heard whispers of a Spielberg or McDonagh snub), only the last spot is up for grabs here. Recently, the directing branch has opted for a 'cool' pick (something indie or international) where everyone else goes mainstream, which would benefit Berger, Park Chan-wook for Decision to Leave, S.S. Rajamouli for RRR, and particularly Charlotte Wells for Aftersun, who I almost picked. Or if best picture buzz is all that matters this year, Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun and Baz Luhrmann for Elvis could easily make a showing. But the latter two don't strike me as directing nominees, and all the hip and sexy options don't feel right, so I'll say Cameron gets rewarded for spending thirteen years teaching cameras how breathe underwater.

Actress

Cate Blanchett-Tar

Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Danielle Deadwyler-Till

Viola Davis-The Woman King

Ana De Armas-Blonde

Alternate: Ana De Armas-Blonde

Three locked spots followed by a bevy of seemingly impossible contenders, but someone's got to make it in. Conventional wisdom suggests Davis, De Armas, and Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans fighting for two spots, but I struggle to imagine either of the latter campaigns happening (and if we're being honest, Davis in The Woman King feels like the kind of predicted nominee that we'll all look back on and slap our foreheads, wondering we we could have thought it was going to happen). But who fills the space they left? People (specifically celebrities on twitter) won't stop talking about Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie, but it feels more like a last-minute publicity campaign than a serious contender, and Emma Thompson in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande seems similarly doomed. Margot Robbie in Babylon and Olivia Colman in Empire of Light wait in the wings, but do either of them seem any more plausible than a major Oscar nom for Blonde? So I've gone with Davis as the easy pick and De Armas operating under the assumption that the Academy is going to force me to watch Blonde.

Actor

Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser-The Whale

Austin Butler-Elvis

Bill Nighy-Living

Paul Mescal-Aftersun

Alternate: Tom Cruise-Top Gun: Maverick

I guess I'm entering my agnosticator-prognosticator phase, because I don't believe in like half of the nominations I'm picking. The top three are golden, but I am struggling to believe that Bill Nighy is actually secure.  Ditto Mescal, whose performance I adore, but he's awfully young, in a very small movie, and not known for his film work. But who would replace them? The Tom Cruise nomination push feels like something drawn from the ugliest parts of my subconscious, forced to chase me around and ruin my day--which makes it plausible, I guess, but unsavory. A Tom Hanks/A Man Called Otto jump scare might be smart, but you'll see in a bit that I've got my own Tom Hanks nightmare bonanza planned, so asking for two would be presumptuous. And beyond those men? Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans, Adam Sandler/Hustle, Jeremy Pope/The Inspection, Hugh Jackman/The Son all feel more like faces you'd see on milk cartons in the mid 80s than likely Oscar scenarios, so I'll stick with the boys I've got and be ready to throw a whole lot of side-eye their way.

Supporting Actress

Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin

Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dolly De Leon-Triangle of Sadness

Nina Hoss-Tar

Alternate: Hong Chau-The Whale

Pound for pound the weirdest category, and maybe of my Oscar-watching lifetime? Beyond Condon, absolutely no one is safe, and a winning narrative could come from at least seven or eight different people. Bassett and Curtis are arguably the safest, both angling for career honors in genres that the Academy usually doesn't love, but I wouldn't be surprised seeing either of them miss. Dolly De Leon in Triangle of Sadness, Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Hong Chau in The Whale all complete a trifecta of stellar Asian actresses who all seem to be competing with each other (unfortunately, the Academy has in the past had a somewhat pronounced bias toward Asian actors and cinema in general). Any talking woman from Women Talking could theoretically make it, Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy in particular, and Carey Mulligan/She Said, Janelle Monae/Glass Onion, Keke Palmer/Nope could reclaim some of their early season glory. But I'm gonna throw all that logic out the window and say that Nina Hoss in Tar gets it without any precursor support whatsoever. Most years, at least one performer who acts next to a big frontrunner (like Cate Blanchett this year) slides in with their more awards-laden scene partner--and it helps that Hoss is just as good (if not better) than Blanchett. And I'll pick Dolly De Leon as well because I threw a metaphorical dart and that's where it landed.

Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Dano-The Fabelmans

Tom Hanks-Elvis

Alternate: Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway

You know, with the supporting actress race eating up all the bananas energy room, I feel like we haven't fully girded our loins for how bananas these guys might get as well. Plenty of people are predicting an easy 2/2/1 split with the Banshees boys and the Fabelmans (Dano and Judd Hirsch) each getting dual nods in the same category--something that almost never happens. And sure, there are boring or default options (I see you, Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse! I see you, Brad Pitt in Babylon!), but there's also room for some fresh hell. What about a shocking James Hong/Everything Everywhere nod? What if all the dual nods miss and are filled with indie fare like Causeway and Ben Whishaw in Women Talking? Or what if, hypothetically, a heavily made up Tom Hanks with a silly accent snuck around an acclaimed movie with best picture heat, even if the discourse from the summer was all about how terrible a performance it was? Maybe it's far-fetched, but it also feels inevitable.

Original Screenplay

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Tar

Triangle of Sadness

Alternate: The Menu

I came this close to swapping The Menu and Triangle of Sadness, assuming the Academy would go for the more recent of two similarly minded, themed, and looking films, but the season has coalesced so decisively around these five movies that it'd be silly to pick anything different. Still, fingers, toes, and several vital organs crossed for Aftersun.

Adapted Screenplay

Women Talking

The Whale

Glass Onion

All Quiet on the Western Front

Top Gun: Maverick

Alternate: She Said

Most years some degree of parity between big contenders in original and adapted screenplay. This year, however, has gifted us with a hot mess of ragged contenders stumbling their way out of the race, sidelined indie fare, and big movies that, uh, are not most revered for their writing. Maybe the only category this year where I wouldn't be surprised if any of the predicted five missed. Plenty of projects waiting in the wings (White Noise, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Bones and All, and Living spring immediately to mind), but I tend to think that this category will either hit us with all the most obvious picks (i.e. the top six up there) or throw some gonzo curveballs that no one could have seen coming.

Production Design

Babylon

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: The Fabelmans

Starting a couple different narratives as we enter the craft categories: how high can All Quiet on the Western Front and Everything Everywhere fly, and how hard is early season frontrunner going to fall? For better or worse, I think the answer in all instances is a lot (accompanied two out of three times by a weary eyeroll from me). We can ask a similar question of Black Panther, which, despite its middling critical acclaim and somewhat disappointing financial returns, is poised to get as many as nine nominations or as few as one or two.

Costume Design

Babylon

Elvis

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Corsage

Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris and Corsage feel like the kinds of fashion-first period pics that use the clothes to tell the story that often land here. I'd love to throw in a Glass Onion surprise, but I just can't see it happening. Still, Everything Everywhere or The Woman King could muscle in on the strength of their craft (or their prestige).

Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water

Top Gun: Maverick

The Batman

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Dumbledore

Nope

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front

My guiding principle for this category is that the Academy will seek to hurt us (Fantastic Beasts), but then they'll feel really bad about us and do something nice for the world (Nope). I haven't seen Fantastic Beasts or Jurassic World: Dominion doing well on anyone's predictions list, but it's worth pointing out that the Visual Effects Society (The only industry precursor for this category) went wild for both of those while ignoring 'safer' bets. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. In addition to the seven I've already talked about, the other finalists are Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Thirteen Lives.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Elvis

The Whale

The Batman

Blonde

Amsterdam

Alternate: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Another roster designed to make me watch things I don't want to watch (have I just been doing this too long? Have I lost the sunny optimism that would have once had me believe that I wasn't going to have to watch Amsterdam for the Academy's sick amusement?). I see tons of people predicting All Quiet on the Western Front, which seems like a safe bet, but this category almost never goes for gore makeup, even in the context of war movies, so I'll remain skeptical for now. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. In addition to the seven discussed above, the other finalists are Babylon, Crimes of the Future, and Emancipation. (Lol watch Emancipation get the nod and then we all have to get invested in a Will Smith Oscar narrative way sooner than we were planning.)

Film Editing

Top Gun: Maverick

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Elvis

The Banshees of Inisherin

Avatar: The Way of Water

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front

Traditionally, this is the craft category most tied to best picture, so look here to see what might be surging or flagging (a Fabelmans surprise or Banshees snub, for instance). Maybe even Tar gets in and establishes itself as a bigger threat in the big race? Whatever keeps All Quiet on the Western Front away.

Cinematography

Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet on the Western Front

Empire of Light

Avatar: The Way of Water

Bardo

Alternate: Elvis

Not at all confident with these choices, Avatar feeling the most vulnerable to an upset. Not sure about Bardo, but Innaritu's never made a movie that the Academy didn't nominate, and this feels like as plausible a place as any to do it. The Batman and The Fabelmans seem likely as alternates, and even likelier as the superhero team-up we all deserve. Look for Elvis, Everything Everywhere, or Banshees to show up here if they have a strong morning.

Original Score

Babylon

The Fabelmans

Women Talking

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Nope

Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin

To what extent are we letting the early season narratives cloud our judgement? The predictions are dominated by movies that have fallen flat on their face as the year went on--is it ridiculous to think that they all (Babylon, The Fabelmans, Women Talking) might miss in favor of fresher films? Probably, but I'm gonna think about it anyway. And speaking of thinking, I'm gonna do my very best to manifest a Nope nomination here by thinking very strong and positive thoughts, and I invite you all to join me.

Sound

Top Gun: Maverick

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: The Batman

Though I'd love to find room for The Batman, this feels like the right five to me: A good mix of genre fare, musicals, and the token sound slot for the best picture frontrunner. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Babylon, Moonage Daydream, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio.

Original Song

"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

"Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick

"Naatu Naatu"-RRR

"Applause"-Tell It Like a Woman

"Til You're Home"-A Man Called Otto

Alternate: "Ciao Papa"-Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

The yearly blood rite is complete, and Diane Warren will storm the Dolby theater once more with a soulful ballad from a film that probably didn't exist until the sheer power of her words pulled it from the ether. And speaking of blood rites, I've been doing my best to stave off the encroaching A Man Called Otto assault, but I've failed, which means I'm going to have to drag my ass into a theater for two hours just so I can hear the end credits song.

Animated Film

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Turning Red

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Bad Guys

Inu-Oh

Alternate: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Despite having a normal lineup two minutes ago, I was possessed by a last minute fit of madness (no doubt inspired by all the blood magic in the previous paragraph) and have chosen chaos with a Marcel snub and Inu-Oh sneaking in over more obvious smaller titles like Wendell and Wild or My Father's Dragon. But I've got to be me, even when being me means doing something stupid.

International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany

Decision to Leave-South Korea

Argentina, 1985-Argentina

Close-Belgium

The Quiet Girl-Ireland

Alternate: Return to Seoul-Cambodia

Unbelievably difficult to predict this year, thanks to a wildly acclaimed and by all accounts spectacular list of qualifiers. I was tempted to pick a real longshot like Joyland from Pakistan or even The Blue Caftan from Morocco, but it seems I used up all my courage the last category, so we'll have to settle for the relative safety of a nomination for Ireland.

Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

Descendant

Moonage Daydream

Alternate: Navalny

Threw a dart to predict this year's high-profile snub in a category that almost always cold-shoulders at least one of its frontrunners, and the dart struck Navalny, on top of everything else he has to deal with. I'll admit that I haven't seen most of the movies eligible here, and, as always, can conjure only sporadic enthusiasm, but I've got my fingers crossed for whichever outcome would be the best.

And there you have it! For those playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:

Everything Everywhere All at Once-9

The Banshees of Inisherin-8

Elvis-8

Avatar: The Way of Water-7

Top Gun: Maverick-7

I'm maybe over-predicting Avatar and under-predicting All Quiet and The Fabelmans--the first out of pure and unbridled malice, and the second in hopes that I can reverse-psychology the Academy into showering The Fabelmans in little gold men.

I know it's silly for me to so wantonly spend all of these words talking about Oscars when I haven't talked about my own picks--but those are coming soon! Sometime in February, as per the usual schedule/what the screaming rock hyraxes in my head dictate. But for now, if I could guarantee any nomination (or narrative), it'd be Aftersun having a shocking and major run a la Beasts of the Southern Wild in 2012, and if I could prevent one nomination (or narrative), I would slap the pens/mice out of as many hands as possible that were voting for All Quiet on the Western Front. 

And that's it! In about 15 hours, every one of these predictions will be meaningless, which is exactly as it should be. I'll be back in the morning to unwrap all the Oscar presents and see how happy we should be (or how rocks we have to throw). 

Final Oscar Predictions 2021: Drench Me, Lucifer!

 

If there's one thing we can agree about at the end of another COVID-extended awards season, it's that the upcoming Oscars telecast sounds dumb and bad, and the Oscars booting eight categories from the show to make room for *checks notes* Shaun White, Kelly Slater, and a twitter award that will probably go to Minimata (a Johnny Depp vehicle mostly known for having really intense online fans) is whole volcanic slurry of bad choices. But if we can agree on a second thing (maybe a dubious proposition), it's that having the Oscars at the end of March makes for a real slog to the finish line. Don't get me wrong, I love the Oscars more than anything else on this planet, and when a comet ends all human life, Don't Look Now-style, I only hope that someone thought to stuff Tilda Swinton's Oscar and a couple envelopes into a mini-rocket and send them to the moon or wherever in the universe they're most likely to be appreciated (Ganymede? No one and nothing named Ganymede could be neutral about televised awards shows.) That said, three full months into the new year is maybe a little late to delay the inevitable. Just let us watch Diane Warren mask her disappointment yet again and let the world get on with its cinematic life (celebrating how great a year it is to be a Channing Tatum fan)! 

But the Oscar year, such as it was, is coming to a fiery and infuriating end tomorrow night, and we might as well be there to stare at the ruins of Shaun White and attempt to pick up the pieces. I'm ready to move on to the new movie year, but not before I self-flagellate in front of a TV while eating Oscar-shaped foods, as is my destiny. 

While the extended season makes for some exhausted conversation (there was nothing more to say about Belfast six months ago, but somehow we've all had to persevere), it has made for some wacky narratives, throwing seemingly sure winners to the dirt and melting Oscar dreams into scrap in favor of what we all found to talk about in the past few weeks. If these Oscars were being held at the end of February, we'd be having very different conversations about the winners--some better and some worse, but universally less chaos, so it all evens out. There are three whole categories where absolutely any nominee could win, and the main race might upset nearly a century of statistics. I don't know if I can recall there ever being such last-minute instability, and I'm here for the insanity, if not necessarily for the winners it might enable. Still, we'll see how it goes--maybe I'm reading too heavily into the very small and echo-chambered world of awards blogging, everyone here just desperate to find something new to talk about, and things are much more predictable than I'm assuming. At any rate, I'm nothing if not well informed, as this year marks the second in a row (second ever, in fact) in which I've been able to see every nominee in every category. So now, I'll be able to let my personal opinions cloud my judgment in all 24 categories--oh happy day! Last year I wrote that I hoped that the widespread online availability of movies that Covid forced would continue, and it has, though that same availability might be low-key killing movie theaters forever. Mixed blessings. Still, I'm glad that the years in which I'd miss huge swaths of nominees because they simple wouldn't open anywhere with 1000 miles of me feel so far away.

So let's get to it! Do note that I predict more for fun than I do for accuracy. There are lots of sites online that can help you ace your Oscar pool, but I'm going to use my space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds.

Best Picture
The nominees: 
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Until about three weeks ago, the conversation wasn't about what would win here--it was about how many Oscars The Power of the Dog and Dune could split between them, with the latter being a forgone conclusion. And then a funny thing happened: Sundance favorite CODA started winning an untenable number of major awards (the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award, the Producers Guild award, the Writers Guild award, among others), and the momentum lurched into reverse, abandoning Power of the Dog and dragging everyone's favorite mildly gifted high school singer closer and closer to the podium. Is it safe to predict CODA? It's certainly the frontrunner in terms of narrative, momentum, and maybe even popularity, but Academy history is not in its favor. Generally, movies need to be nominated in directing, acting, writing, and editing to win best picture. Though it's possible to win while missing one of those categories (about a quarter of all best picture winners have), only one movie has ever won while only missing two (at least in the era after all of those categories were introduced). And even that movie was a Shakespeare adaptation, so it's lack of a writing nom comes with a huge asterisk (the Academy generally presuming that Shakespeare is Shakespeare, and requires no adaptation). Which means that CODA, missing both directing and editing nominations, faces a massive uphill battle. Add to that the fact that it would be the best picture winner with the fourth fewest nominations of all time--and all three with fewer nominations than it came within the first five years of Oscar history, when there were less than half the number of categories that are currently present. These two statistics together would make CODA's win entirely unprecedented--and yet I can't pretend that it's absolutely in control of the conversation. And the Academy's preferential balloting system (just getting #1 votes can't secure a victory, it needs widespread support and general love) probably favors CODA here. But then again, the Academy's much vaunted new international membership, responsible for upsets like Moonlight and Olivia Colman in recent years, probably favor Power of the Dog. 
Long story long, this will be a real nail-biter right to the end, and will probably feel surprising no matter what wins.

Will Win: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Drive My Car
Should Have Been Here: Days

Director
The nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh-Belfast
Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi-Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg-West Side Story

Far less intrigue here--almost unthinkable for Jane Campion to lose, given the film's popularity/industry respect, its obvious and showy formal control, and the fact that none of the other nominees has the narrative or momentum to upset her.

Will Win: Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza
Should Win: Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Julia Ducourneau-Titane

Actress
The nominees:
Jessica Chastain-The Eyes of Tammy Fay
Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart-Spencer

The first category which anyone could win, so let's just go down the line. Chastain is the nominal frontrunner right now, having won the past couple awards, she's starring in the Academy's favorite genre for actors (the biopic), she has a makeup-aided transformation, and she's been working long and hard enough to claim a 'due' narrative. Colman is obviously beloved by the Academy (see her previous upset, and her not-a-given nomination for The Father last year), and she's stellar in a film that the Academy might be looking to reward. Cruz is similarly staggering, is hugely respected and also seems due (even though she's won already). Kidman was the frontrunner a couple months ago, and the Academy always struggles to turn down the chance to reward a famous person playing someone famous, but this probably feels like the least likely result. And finally dearest KStew, who was the frontrunner before Kidman, which means it's been long enough that voters have stopped being bored with her as a frontrunner and have started looking at the performance, which is fantastic--plus she is the only nominee other than Chastain not to have won before. But is all that enough to overcome the inexplicable anti-Stewart brigade? 
Simply put, this is probably Chastain's to lose, but Cruz has been coming on as a dark threat, and Colman and Stewart both have clear shots at victory. It's everyone's favorite kind of Oscar bloodbath!

Will Win: Kristen Stewart-Spencer (maybe voting with my heart)
Could Win: Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
Should Win: Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
Should Have Been Here: Renate Reinsve-The Worst Person in the World

Actor
The nominees:
Javier Bardem-Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield-Tick Tick Boom
Will Smith-King Richard
Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth

Far less intrigue here--Smith has been way out in front since the beginning, and is just the kind of movie star the Academy loves to award when given the chance, and he's giving just the big biopic-y performance the Academy loves to see. If The Power of the Dog had more staying power, I'd argue that Cumberbatch had a stronger chance, but I don't see it. Ditto Garfield/Tick Tick Boom.

Will Win: Will Smith-King Richard
Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Hidetoshi Nishijima-Drive My Car

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Jessie Buckley-The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
Judi Dench-Belfast
Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard

You'll find a similar argument in almost every acting category--a strong frontrunner, a Power of the Dog star that probably can't go the distance, and not much to hold your breath over. Here, it's DeBose playing Anita--a role that wins almost everyone who plays it major award hardware of some kind. I've heard whispers of an Ellis upset, and it could be true if King Richard goes harder than we expect, but I don't know that I buy it.

Will Win: Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard
Should Win: Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Martha Plimpton-Mass

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Ciaran Hinds-Belfast
Troy Kotsur-CODA
Jesse Plemons-The Power of the Dog
JK Simmons-Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog

Earlier in the year, this looked a duel to the death between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee, but CODA's emergent Oscar juggernaut status means that Kotsur's going to body his opponent, acceptance speech in hand.

Will Win: Troy Kotsur-CODA
Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Troy Kotsur-CODA
Should Have Been Here: Vincent Lindon-Titane

Original Screenplay
The nominees:
Belfast
Don't Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World

Another category that's completely open. Belfast feels like the most traditional winner, and this is the easiest place to honor one of the most nominated movies of the year as well as 8-time Oscar nominee Kenneth Branagh. Don't Look Up could easily benefit from the Academy's inexplicable Adam McKay love, and stands out against the other nominees as a wacky sci-fi satire. It's tough to gauge King Richard's momentum, given the constant CODA/Power of the Dog slugging match, but it's clearly a popular film, and could theoretically triumph here. I'm tempted to give it to Paul Thomas Anderson and Licorice Pizza, as Anderson is hugely respected, is squarely in his loved-by-the-Academy phase, and has never won an Oscar. And there seems to be tons of chatter online about The Worst Person in the World upsetting here, but it's hard to tell if that's a legitimate possibility or if it's just the kind of thing we chat about when we're bored with a long Oscar season.

Will Win: Licorice Pizza
Could Win: Belfast
Should Win: Licorice Pizza
Should Have Been Here: Bergman Island

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
Drive My Car

Probably a solid bellwether for what wins best picture. I think Power could lose this and still take picture, but I don't know if CODA can lose here and still take picture--it needs to be strong enough to win every category it's in if it's going to take the main prize. That said, there's more than a small possibility that The Lost Daughter wins this instead and leaves us all scratching our heads.

Will Win: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: West Side Story

Production Design
The nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Moving into the crafts categories we'll have the same question basically everywhere: can ________ beat Dune? Here, at least, I think the answer is no. Nightmare Alley might put up a good fight, but I think Dune's massive and brutal worldbuilding will be too much to pass up.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Nightmare Alley
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: The French Dispatch

Costume Design
The nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story

Hard to imagine that Cruella's elaborate wacky fashions will lose here, but could theoretically fall to a Dune sweep. Still, if Dune loses any craft Oscar, I'd bet on it being this one.

Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: The Green Knight

Visual Effects
The nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

No way Dune loses here.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: Godzilla vs. Kong

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci

The Academy has been trending toward prosthetic-heavy biopic transformations of late, which bodes well for The Eyes of Tammi Faye, as does Jessica Chastain's possible Oscar (this award also gets paired with best actress with some frequency). If Dune wins this, you can expect a significant Dune sweep. Look out for Cruella, I suppose, but in a pretty tenuous and goofy kind of way.

Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: Titane

Film Editing
The nominees:
Don't Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick Tick Boom

The last totally open category--and it's wild that it's this one, given how non-adventurous the category normally is, and how often it's linked with best picture. Don't Look Up has the exact kind of jangly and frenetic rhythm that plays as 'best' or 'most' editing, which gibes it a leg up. Dune is the kind of action film/genre epic that frequently gets rewarded here, but misses just as often. King Richard recently won the American Cinema Editors award, and might have way more momentum than we expect--if it wins here, look for it to show up elsewhere. The Power of the Dog feels like the obvious call, given it's most likely to win best picture, but it just doesn't feel like a traditional editing winner (but if it wins here, you can pretty much take to the bank that it's winning best picture). Finally, Tick Tick Boom, the only nominee that isn't also up for best picture. It's got a lot of popularity, and its editing might also be the flashiest (give or take Don't Look Up). A fascinating and unpredictable category, and it's a shame and an insult that the Academy will be presenting it on twitter before the ceremony instead of during the live show. On the very off chance that the producer of the Oscars telecast reads my blog, I hope you feel terrible about yourself. Exiling these categories is so, so stupid, and goes against everything that the Oscars are supposed to be. Aaaaghggh it makes me want to rage-vomit.

Will Win: Tick Tick Boom (my no guts no glory pick)
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Zola

Cinematography
The nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Dune's desert bonanza against The Power of the Dog's Montana hellscape. This probably goes to Dune (the Academy does love a big cgi eye-popper in this category), but my fingers are crossed for Dog's Ari Wegner, who, if she wins, will become the first woman to win this category, which is the last category that no woman has ever won.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Days

Original Score
The nominees:
Don't Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog

a clear three-way race between the electronic weirdness of Dune, the angry strings of Power of the Dog, and the warmth of Encanto. Probably comes down to which of the three films are most popular, which is anyone's guess. I may pick Power of the Dog here--not because I necessarily think it's got the best chance of winning, but if I don't, then I'm predicting that Power wins only one of its twelve nominations (and that one is director), which just doesn't feel right.

Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Luca

Sound
The nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Another easy Dune victory. If West Side Story were more of a force, I'd say it had a chance, but it's been quietly sinking on the awards circuit pretty much since it released.

Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: Titane

Original Song
The nominees: 
"Be Alive"-King Richard
"Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto
"Down to Joy"-Belfast
"No Time to Die"-No Time to Die
"Somehow You Do"-Four Good Days

Probably a photo finish between Billie Eilish/No Time to Die and Lin-Manuel Miranda/Encanto, which is just the competition we expected to see at the Oscars. If Miranda wins this, he'll complete his EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony). Kind of weird to count out Beyoncé/Be Alive, but I can't imagine her pulling it out.

Will Win: "Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto
Could Win: "No Time to Die"-No Time to Die
Should Win: "Down to Joy"-Belfast (although Van Morrison is an anti-vax pile of garbage)
Should Have Been Here: "Gales of Song"-Belle

Animated Film
The nominees:
Flee
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragan

Easy to assume that it's Encanto's to lose--watch how it performs in the music categories to see if Mitchells or Flee have a chance to upset.

Will Win: Encanto
Could Win: The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Should Win: Flee
Should Have Been Here: Belle

International Film
The nominees:
Drive My Car-Japan
Flee-Denmark
The Hand of God-Italy
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom-Bhutan
The Worst Person in the World-Norway

No international film ever nominated for best picture has lost this award (since the award's inception), so Drive My Car probably has this in the bag. I've heard tons about a Worst Person upset here too, but I am not sure if that's a thing to expect or if this movie has some fans in the Oscar blogging world that are trying to manifest the upset into reality.

Will Win: Drive My Car
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should Win: Drive My Car
Should Have Been Here: Titane

Documentary Feature
The nominees: 
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire

Summer of Soul has all the momentum going in, and is your probable winner, particularly given that Ascension, Attica, and Writing with Fire already feel like also-rans. The only question is whether Flee, a clearly beloved film that was the first to score nominations in all three 'specialty' categories, can convert any of those nominations to a win. Here feels like the only possibility--no way it muscles past Drive My Car/Worst Person in international film or past Encanto and Mitchells in Animated, but being the clear alternate to Summer of Soul might work in its favor.

Will Win: Summer of Soul
Could Win: Flee
Should Win: Flee
Should Have Been Here: Abastain (I don't watch nearly enough documentaries to pick something)

And that's that! I've got Dune as the biggest winner of the night with four statues, but even that feels like a fairly slight number. Honestly, I can't say I'm too confident about most of these, but that's where the fun comes in! Catch my face tomorrow night, a silent and horrified grimace while all my least-favorite movies march to the stage. (Three Oscars for CODA! Five Oscars for Belfast! Two for Lucifer, to whom the Academy has clearly handed the reins!) Whatever happens, it's sure to be both atrocious and remarkable.

Best of 2021, Part 3: Craft Categories

 During summer 2020, like most people, I was looking for a new and healthy hobby. My sister recommended an at-home workout channel, and I was like great, this is who I'm going to be now! I'm going to do multiple at-home fitness routines every day! And I did--for about five weeks. And then I skipped a day, and because of how my brain is, I knew then that I could never do another at-home workout, and I never did. Cut to summer 2021 and a similar resolution: I'm going to go on walks at least five times a week! And I did for three whole months, and it was great, but then I only went once for a whole week, and then knew that casual walks had to be dead to me forever.

Point is, I'm really good at doing things in streaks, but the second the streak gets broken, it's all over--which will hopefully shed a little light into why I'm writing this last post like two weeks after the others. Every year (for over a decade!), I write these posts in three consecutive days--and then I missed a day, and because my brain is absolute garbage, my first thought was 'ok, well that was fun, guess I can't ever write about movies again.' Now, I'm gonna power through that impulse (much to the unfettered joy of everyone reading, obviously), and I'll do my best to make it seem as though I were writing this two weeks ago, but fair warning! I am a shriveled and empty version of my former self, and I have to assume that my silly metaphoring skills will follow suit.

Of course, the world in the past few weeks has been enough to shrivel and empty most things, and has contributed in some small way to me putting these off. Not to claim that me and my blog are the war in Ukraine's biggest and most important victims, or that I've been effected at all--just that it might have felt a little weird to post a silly movie list on the day the war was declared, and that helped delay me to the point where the delay itself became a deterrent. Anyway.

And all of this to delay my favorite lists--the crafts categories! All of the huge and impactful contributions without which movies would cease to exist but are most likely to be ignored when it's time to give credit for making a movie (I'm looking directly at you, Oscars, who have announced that 8 of their awards--all 'smaller' categories--will be awarded before the telecast starts, and the winners might possibly be announced on Twitter; this is definitely the worst thing happening in the world right now). But I like, love, and adore celebrating all the design elements that breathe life into a movie. You could not pay me $100 million to write 500 nice words about Christopher Nolan, but I would pay you $100 million to write and publish 50,000 nice words about sound effects. A movie's crafts are important--no movie moment you have ever loved would have been possible without committed and enthusiastic production designers, costumers, editors, composers, foley artists, sound mixers, makeup artists, etc.--so let's spend a little time giving thanks!

In interest of putting a face on some of these things, I've added some visuals to the lists. They should enlarge when you click on them, but I make no promises, as my technical skills are less than garbage.

Note: I didn't include pictures or videos for film editing or the sound categories, because I don't really know how to capture film editing compellingly in a way that doesn't waste either my time or yours, and I don't have the resources to make audio clips for the sound categories (even though literally nothing would make me happier).

Production Design

5. West Side Story-tough to stack up against the original's riot of color, but the new West Side more than holds its own with an expanded sense of place and time, pushing the musical into a realistic cityscape without sacrificing its flights of fancy.

4. The Power of the Dog-cavernous and unlivable interiors and the tiny buildings that begrudgingly house them, rendered wobbly and insecure by the sheer scale of the worlds around and inside them.

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3. Nightmare Alley-Enough lurid and bloodthirst carnival spaces and malevolent art deco monstrosities to bite the head off a chicken and come back for seconds.

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2. The French Dispatch-It's too easy--even unfair--to expect and demand meticulously realized miniature worlds from a Wes Anderson movie, but they keep providing, so here we are. And what's not to love or be astounded by in this woozy easter basket rendition of France, each story with its own color palette and sensibility, and the central town itself a towering and derelict creature.

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1. Dune-the obvious choice, but the easy one, with Villeneuve's brutalist romp a sparsely populated hellscape of empty pyramids, lumbering sky barges, and intricate, lived-in technologies setting the foundation for one of the more indelible sci-fi spectacles in recent memory.

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Honorable mention: a big year for minimalist sets this year with The Tragedy of Macbeth's Caligari-ass pointed chambers making a strong showing as well

Costume Design

5. Spencer-combining recreations of actual outfits with stifled re-imaginings to create the perfect set of evening wear to swallow pearls, see ghosts, and flirt with Sally Hawkins in

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4. The Harder They Fall-an array of immaculate, rough and ready duds perfect for even the busiest of gunslingers. I'll always go to bat for people who put real thought into the outfit they plan to wear whilst robbing a train.

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3. Cruella-an all-out couture assault on the senses, massive and structured dresses flying by the camera a mile in a minute, like architectural models in a hurricane. Extra points, and my undying love, for the garbage-truck dress that reveals that its train is so big that it covers the whole block as the characters drive away.

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2. Dune-A one-stop shop for hot looks to serve while dying in the desert. Much of the intention (rightly) goes to Jessica's arrival-to-Arrakis dress, or the wilting woven revelries of the bene gesserit, or the upscale fishbowl hats of the imperial dignitaries, but so much care and detail went into creating the armor and stillsuits, all gorgeous and believably functional pieces in their own right.

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5. The Green Knight-finally answers one of cinema's most burning questions: what would it look like if everyone in the Middle Ages dressed like fragile endangered birds? The answer was worth the wait, with The Green Knight's precarious collars, headwear like landscapes, and aggressive slashes of color against a gray world providing some of the year's most memorable visuals in a movie already stuffed with indelible images.

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Honorable mention: I hate leaving out the primary color African Queen cosplay in Jungle Cruise.

Visual Effects

5. Eternals-Ok, so maybe this is partly here because Richard Madden is the movie's (and maybe the world's) best special effect, but I admired how Eternals incorporated its monster mayhem and superhero antics into a more gently lit and outdoorsy environment than the usual marvel movie.

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4. The Tomorrow War-the scale of the alien invasion is so stupid (in the best way) and immaculately rendered, and I love the goopy detail that each alien gets in close-up, all the viscera and spit and generally unpleasant liquids that punctuate how not chill it is to get dropped into the future to get eaten be aliens.

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3. No Time to Die-the Bond franchise has been almost single-handedly (with Christopher Nolan and whatever staggering and impressive tomfoolery Tom Cruise is doing in front of a camera) been carrying the torch for practical effects into the 21st century, seamlessly incorporating in-camera stunts and live effects and digital augmentation, and No Time to Die is another stellar entry into this tradition.

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2. Godzilla vs. Kong-Look, no force of god(zilla) or man is strong enough to keep me from loving these movies, or applauding the skill it takes to make a city-sized radioactive lizard take a punch. Somebody had to wake up that morning like 'what do godzilla jaw physics look like when they're hit be a fist the size of Luxembourg,' and the fact that those people haven't won a Nobel is a sin.

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1. Dune-this post is dangerously close to becoming a total Dune love-in, but what can I do? It's hardly my favorite movie of the year, but it's obvious how well-crafted, ambitious, and successful it is.

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Makeup and Hairstyling

5. The Green Knight-predominantly for the titular knight's intense dermatological situation, but also for Dev Patel's increasing filthiness, the grimy and well-inhabited dirt of characters on the road, and for Alicia Vikander's fancy noble hair (no excuses for her moppet peasant wig though).

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4. Zola-enough big hair and smoky eyes for all manner of Florida shenanigans. Big, dramatic, and silly looks, all of which swell and wilt as the story unfolds.

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3. Dune-while we are all impatient to celebrate transforming Stellan Skarsgaard into an engorged and dying testicle, it's also worth tossing a few appreciative claps toward all the pale and vaguely unsettled Harkonnens, as well as Lady Jessica's always salon-ready hair choices.

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2. Halloween Kills-I hate this movie as much as (or probably more than) the next guy, but I can't deny that its ridiculousness was supported by stellar and eye-popping gore effects. Mounting violence at this level must have been a gargantuan task, and this makeup team was up for it, even if the movie didn't earn their incomparable talents.

(no image for this one, as there aren't a ton of stills of the kills in this movie, and youtube's also somewhat lacking. Still, go watch the movie, if you want to see some great splatter effects/were hoping to watch a bad movie tonight.)

1. Titane-an absolute showcase for everything that movie makeup can achieve: the ridiculous sleazy glamour of the opening scenes, the main character's increasingly horrific physical transformations, and immaculately gross gore effects. Just a total masterclass of makeup as a narrative device.

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Honorable mention: intricate skyscraper hair designs and transformative prosthetics in Coming 2 America

Film Editing

5. The Power of the Dog-exceptionally patient, allowing big moments to sidle quietly into the movie and then leave with just as much fanfare. Trust the audience not to need a permanent marker, and is content to plod forward like hoofbeats.

4. Summer of Soul-crafts both a compelling narrative retelling and a larger cultural/historical structure out of untold hundreds of hours of archive footage. The concert footage is cut together propulsively, and the non-music elements meld seamlessly with the performances.

3. Moffie-vindictive and monotonous rhythms, a treadmill being dragged out further and further into the ocean.  A knifepoint balance of lyrical and furious, the film tipping into one or the other based on when the edit decides to breathe.

2. Titane-If action movies and musicals are the hardest genre to edit, then surely this action-horror-musical-family drama gets all the difficulty points in the world. Titane is pulsing but never frenetic, and quiet without ever relaxing. 

1. Zola-fired off with the same intensity as a breathless twitter thread and occupying a space as big and as small as a single phone speaking to the entire world.

Honorable mention: making musical numbers fly in West Side Story

Cinematography

5. Moffie-like being trapped under a giant yellow-green dome, the dappled light gently strewn across your shoulders pleasant enough, at least until you suffocate.

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4. This is Not a Burial, It's a Resurrection-a shocking array of saturated blues and blacks to Moffie's summer array, This Is Not a Burial... soaks its characters in shadows and watercolors.

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3. The Power of the Dog-the power of the American west (or New Zealand) gets strangled and slid under a road grader, stretching its images into a looming and inescapable alien tableau, with nothing but the skies and cigarette for company.

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2. The French Dispatch-a never-ending array of swiss watch zoetropes, little self-contained boxes lined up. The framing, colors, lighting, and motion all more or less flawless. It's been tough to capture with a single image or gif, but the in the context of the movie, it's almost overwhelming how gorgeous things are.

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1. Days-the film's central aesthetic conceit--one unbroken and unmoving shot for each scene--couldn't work without spectacular cinematography, and Days does way more than just work. That the camera could capture such constantly arresting and beautiful images while still narrating the story so eloquently within the one shot constrains is something of a minor miracle.

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Honorable mention: painterly compositions and sharp contrasts in The Green Knight

Original Score

5. Spencer-equal parts harpsichord, Vivaldi, free jazz, and sheer insanity, Johnny Greenwood's interpretation of the sounds inside Diana's head--abstract, ambient, sharpening to some melodic point before falling into screams--shapes an already ugly mood to create something alien.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JvCNCjQGTI

(Ok, just imagine the next three movies in a three-way tie. I kept changing the order they were in every single time I tried to write an entry. Really, what a great year for this category.)

4. The Harder They Fall-a full-throated amalgam of traditional western sounds, spirituals, and gorgeous orchestrations--music to play while looking in your rearview mirror one last time, but also while hitting Quentin Tarantino with a stick.

((this link leads to the full soundtrack, instead of one track, but it'll start in a good place)

3. Luca-exactly what it sounds like in your head the moment you decide to act on some dizzy impulse that will send you careening towards something you always dreamed of but were always too afraid to reach for. Just excellent, movie-defining stuff. There's a moment in the track below about fifty seconds in where some hard piano chords chime in, followed by a drumline, that makes me tear up a little, just for how big, bold, and innocent it sounds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLeChl46bHE

2. Don't Look Up-an absolutely bonkers and unhinged effort, snazzy and sarcastic in one moment (god do I admire how easily Nicholas Britell makes music sound sarcastic) before pitching into anger, or silliness, or actual sadness. Just about any moment that lands in this movie lands because it's got this score backing it up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epwGOIPxSz0

1. The Power of the Dog-astonishing in every way, like the land itself throwing up and spewing forth and eon's worth of resentment and shame. Maddening and cursed and totally essential--the kind of music that elevates the movie itself. Consider the rage and ugliness of They Were Mine, the nausea in Paper Flowers or the extremely tentative loveliness in West Alone. Just great stuff.

Honorable mention: wacky medieval choirs in The Green Knight

Sound Mixing

5. Zola-self-contained worlds--inside your head or your phone--made to rub up against the chaos inherent to making new friends and/or being in Florida. Somehow manages to both under- and over-exaggerate every moment, in the best sense.

4. The Tragedy of Macbeth-life inside a dead giant's sternum, every thought echoing for a thousand miles. Has the courage to be both quiet and exceptionally weird.

3. Dune-another remarkably quiet movie, considering it's largely about explosions and giant space bugs. Silence becomes Dune's secret weapon, brooding pregnant pauses punctuated by moments of staccato shouts.

2. Moffie-the inescapable rhythms of the plain, the water, the camp, the sky--a hundred external voices whispering into the night, offering a hundred ways to define the movie except what the main character wants to let out of his head.

1. Titane-for the stentorian and jagged music sequences alone, but also for way fire feels soft and waiting alone in a room feels loud.

Honorable mention: big ol monster battles made aurally legible in Godzilla vs. Kong

Sound Editing

5. Titane-for the sound of that stool finding its forever home, for the baby-sized tonka truck voices and the squelchy sounds they make on their, uh, way out, and for the wet, hungry slaps of skin against skin--in a slap, a dance, a hug, whatever.

4. The Tomorrow War-aliens like a washing machine full of broken glass, futuristic combat, and the throaty growl of begrudgingly traveling through time.

3. Godzilla vs. Kong-trashing multiple cities and a navy fleet requires a whole symphony of giddy destruction, which this movie provides in abundance. Bonus points for the final villain's analog hums, and for making Godzilla the shriek-y champion he needs to be.

2. The Green Knight-listen to Dev Patel decomposing in real time! Chopped heads! Giant footsteps! Tragic medieval trudging! Barry Koeghan beating people up! A bounty of silly sounds given wildly specific voices.

1. Dune-I swear this is the last of the Dune love (...he says, with one category to go), but how could I deny its brittle dragonfly-winged vehicles, its apocalyptic hellfire battle, the thumping cataclysms brought by the sand worms, or that world-ending hiss that Oscar Isaac's shiny new poison tooth makes? 

Honorable mention: animated grotesqueries abound in The Spine of Night

Original Song

5. "Second Nature"-Don't Look Up-really going all in on the Don't Look Up music, but who doesn't want to die horribly while listening to Bon Iver?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrVxcQp0SR0

4. "U"-Belle-Belle's soundtrack slaps so hard and I don't care who knows it. This song, the film's opener, which the lead character sings while riding a massive, speaker-adorned whale through an apparently endless virtual world, certainly gives you some idea what kind of space you're going to live in for the next couple hours.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3V4sAXUJ-g

3. "We Don't Talk About Bruno"-Encanto-it's probably cliché at this point to talk about Bruno, but I am nothing if not suggestable, and the crowd has won me over. But so has the song--it's catchy, but its so well-constructed, folding in and out of itself, each mini-section getting its own musical voice before everything comes together in the big finale.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IFD4ozm1DA

2. "Someone to Say"-Cyrano-famously, the song that made me give a shit about Cyrano. I had no enthusiasm for this movie, and then I saw the trailer, which is largely backed by this song, and then I was like oh man, would I die for Cyrano? Now that I've seen the movie, the answer is no, but I still love this lilting and wistful ballad about the gap between what love is supposed to be like and what you might have to settle with.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jq8I6pi7-9E

1. "Gales of Song"-Belle-like it was going to be anything but the protagonist's big 'finding my voice' song from my favorite wacky anime musical this year? A lot rids on this song--we have to get why the entire world is apparently in love with this bright pink fantasy--and it totally works. The quiet build into a huge and percussive chorus are still enough to make me run around punching the air in a show of support.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atPenPe6IhA

Honorable mention: a bubbly way to exit the theater (or for Netflix to cut off) with "On My Way" from The Mitchells vs. The Machines

And that's it for year-end lists--delivered a few weeks late, and with a little less energy than normal, but it's here! You're not entirely done with me yet, as I'll be back in a couple weeks to post my final Oscar predictions, but that's it for long weepy entries about movies (at least until next year). 

For those playing along at home, these were the movies that showed up most frequently in my lists:

The Power of the Dog-10

Titane-9

Drive My Car-6

Dune-6

This Is Not a Burial, It's a Resurrection-5

As for wins, it was a spread the love kind of year. Drive My Car, Titane, and Dune tied for the most wins at three apiece (Picture/Actor/Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor/Makeup/Sound Mixing, and Production Design/Visual Effects/Sound Editing, respectively). 

So that's it! As always, thanks much for reading!