Surely, the first thing you're thinking is 'how can we still be talking the Oscars in April?', and I'm certainly right there with you--I love the Oscars more than anyone you know (I assume), and I'm a little awards-fatigued myself. But there was this little thing called The Apocalypse, and just over a year ago, the Academy assumed that adding a couple month to their eligibility period would make that go away. It didn't, surprisingly, and the extra months probably didn't do much to change nomination tallies or winner narratives (though, I suppose, ask me again about the winners on Monday), but it sure did make everyone very tired. I think part of it is that the whole world is desperate to climb out of the gunky, homebound morass of 2020, and taking a weekend to get really excited about all the movies you streamed in your bi-weekly psychotic break just isn't as exciting as it used to be. I'm not saying that the concept of awards (and movies at large) is obsolete, not by a long shot--just that everyone will breathe a sigh of relief when we can stop traipsing back to the 2020 theaters of our minds and move onto fresh new horrors like Mortal Kombat or the deluge of Marvel TV content. (The last Marvel movie to be released was Spider-Man: Far from Home in July of 2019, close to two years ago. The last time there was a two year gap between Marvel movies, George Bush was president. Imagine that. As a gentle reminder of their power, Disney will release 4 Marvel movies between July and December, and will probably also turn the oceans red, just for kicks. These are godless times.)
Point is--we all love the Oscars dearly, but it's ok to want to move past them. This is healthy and natural--but as I am neither of those things, it's time to drag my gold-plated gimp suit out of the closet and let the Oscars hurt me a little.
Now, all this lead-up isn't to say that the movies are the bad, or that the eventual winners are uninspired, or that the season has been uninteresting. In fact, this has been one of the more interesting seasons in recent memory, with a couple incredibly volatile categories, surrounding a stellar batch of movies, although they might be one of the most depressing lineups in Oscar history. (This has been underlined by (re-)watching the best picture nominees with my family, as we all settle in for whatever fresh hell the Oscars are about to unleash on us. Everyone was thrilled by Minari because, even though it's about an unhappy couple constantly on the edge of financial ruin and scared that their child is about to die, at least the maybe-dying child gets to do hijinks with his grandma.) Also, this is the first ever year that I've been able to see every nominee in every category, even the shorts. Obviously, covid has been an atrocity at every level, and we'll all be coping with the effects of it for years to come, but I can say that it's been lovely to see movies of all kinds become streaming-accessible in ways they never were before. I desperately miss theaters, like I was asked to burn my own house down and then scatter the ashes, and can't wait to get back, but I do hope that the wider streaming accessibility lasts beyond covid. My life thus far has been a narrative of not getting to see the movies I was interested in, as they would never release within 500 miles of me. And that's turned significantly for the better since I moved to where I am now, but I will eternally be for any changes that undo or circumvent the assumption that only people on the coasts watch movies.
Anyhow, long story long, I am tired but still managing to find ways to be grateful, and now let's talk about little gold men. Do note that I sometimes predict more for fun than for accuracy. There are lots of places online to help you ace your Oscar pool, but this is where we try to guess when the Academy is going to throw a shark in the water.
Best Picture
The nominees:
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
This has been Nomadland's award to lose for some months, and it still is, so I won't linger too long here. There are whispers of a Minari upset, or if early frontrunner Trial of the Chicago 7 could still win, and these aren't impossible, but my thought is a) I am skeptical that the Academy would choose no non-English language films for 91 years, and then pick Korean language films two years in a row, and b) if Trial were going to win, it would have said so during the nominations. I agree that Nomadland is looking a little shakier than it was two months ago, but nothing looks like it has the juice to muscle ahead of it.
Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: Minari
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: First Cow
Director
The nominees:
Lee Isaac Chung-Minari
Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman
David Fincher-Mank
Thomas Vinterberg-Another Round
Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
Same narrative as above, but even less likely to change. It would be deeply shocking if anyone other than Zhao won here.
Will Win: Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
Could Win: Lee Isaac Chung-Minari
Should Win: Chloe Zhao-Nomadland
Should Have Been Here: Darius Marder-Sound of Metal
Actress
The nominees:
Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand-Nomadland
Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman
Now we get to the good stuff--this category is more open and volatile than it has been at least in my life, and arguably ever? It's top 5, anyway. Any one of these nominees could win (other than Vanessa Kirby, bless), and the kicker is that they all *have* already. Davis too the Screen Actors Guild award, Andra Day took the Golden Globe, Carey Mulligan took the Critics Choice award (and, just last night, the Indie Spirit award), and Frances McDormand took the Bafta (British Academy)--essentially, all the televised awards have gone to different women.
So how do we parse this mess? Mulligan is the favorite by a hair. She'll be a lot of people's pick, and rightly so--the biggest argument against her was that her Critics Choice win was in December and then spent the next four months losing steam, but last night's Indie Spirit victory undoes that narrative. Still, Promising Young Woman is a difficult film, and it could easily turn softer voters off--particularly since they've hardly been generous with Mulligan over the years. Viola Davis and Frances McDormand both feel like 'safe' choices, such as they are--both are acting legends doing stellar work, and have each already won (McDormand has two Oscars, in fact). Additionally, they're playing either the best picture frontrunner or against one of the year's buzziest performances (more on that in a second), so they'll certainly have reached a wide audience. If this were either of their first wins, I'd call it in the bag, but the fact that they already have an Oscar (or two) hurts their chances. Finally, Andra Day was a surprise win at the Globes, but was she really? The Academy loves nothing more than a biopic, and god help us, they love musical biopics even more. Is it ridiculous to suggest that a huge debut in Oscar's favorite genre that is one of the most recent nominated movies to be released has a big night?
I've got no idea who I'm gonna predict. I'll just start writing it out and pretend that I'll know by the time I get to the end of this sentence. (oops, didn't work, chaos reigns)
Will Win: Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Could Win: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
(real dummy move not even having Mulligan in the top 2, but here we go)
Should Win: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Should Have Been Here: Sidney Flanigan-Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Actor
The nominees:
Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins-The Father
Gary Oldman-Mank
Steven Yeun-Minari
Less hand-wringing to be done here, as the chance to give an emotional send-off to much-loved actor after his tragically young passing for a role that showed a new side of his talent is just too tempting to pass up. Both Ahmed/Sound of Metal and Hopkins/The Father have been coming on awfully strong in the past few months (Hopkins took the Bafta, Ahmed just beat Boseman to the Indie Spirit award), but it's fairly difficult to imagine Boseman losing this. Not impossible, certainly, but real damn difficult.
Will Win: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Anthony Hopkins-The Father
Should Win: Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: Delroy Lindo-Da 5 Bloods
Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman-The Father
Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Youn Yuh-Jung-Minari
This category promised real chaos at the beginning of season, and again with nominations, the shadow of a Close/Colman heavy metal cage re-match dancing in our hearts, or, barring that, Bakalova bringing Borat its first gold statue, a truly bonkers concept (not that the performance isn't great--it's stellar, and deserves to be here, but the content and the way the movie was made alone make this one of the weirder Oscar nominations in recent memory). And all of that was lovely to imagine, easy to fall in love with, but, it turns out, a little out of reach, as power-grandma Youn stepped into the ring and kicked everyone else into space. I do think she's more vulnerable than any of the other frontrunners, but it still feels safe to call a Minari victory here, arguably the only place it can win.
(Fun fact: if Close loses this, she'll tie with Peter O'Toole for most nominations without a win, each racking up 8 over the course of their careers.)
Will Win: Youn Yuh-Jung-Minari
Could Win: Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
Should Win: Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Should Have Been Here: Miranda Hart-Emma
Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr.-One Night in Miami
Paul Raci-Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield-Judas and the Black Messiah
Another category that promised a little wildness at the beginning that's since found gentler pastures. Look, I don't know how you feel about category fraud (the idea that lead roles campaign as supporting because they'll have an easier time winning there), and I know it's a touchy subject with this particular category/winner, but I'm gonna sidestep all that and say that Kaluuya will almost definitely win for his great work in Judas and the Black Messiah. I suppose there's a last gasp question of a Baron Cohen upset, or maybe a Raci one (though I think that's more my fantasy than an actual possibility), but Kaluuya probably has this locked down.
Will Win: Paul Raci-Sound of Metal (screw it, I'm voting with my heart)
Could Win: Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Win: Paul Raci-Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: Aldis Hodge-One Night in Miami
Original Screenplay
The nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Super exciting category--a three-way battle between former frontrunner Chicago 7, current spoiler Minari, and original heavyweight Promising Young Woman. There's an argument that this is the easiest or most appropriate place to recognize any of these films, with Chicago taking the slight advantage, as the other two films have obvious acting bids they hope to capitalize on. Does Sorkin's fame and clout carry the day for Chicago? Does Promising Young Woman's flashiness help it over the finish line? Or does Minari ride a wave of goodwill to the finish line? If either Minari or Chicago does win here, look out for it in best picture. I'm also curious if the closeness of this race opens it up to the other nominees. Do we get a shocker Judas or Metal win? Probably not, but it's not unthinkable.
Will Win: Promising Young Woman
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: Sound of Metal (sorry everyone, I just really liked this movie, ok)
Should Have Been Here: Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
I want to pretend there's no intrigue here, but is that the case? Nomadland looks like it has this sewn up, but The Father has been gaining a ton of steam recently, and you could argue against Nomadland as an achievement in visuals/perceived naturalism than it is in dialogue or narrative structure, whereas The Father exists to flex its muscles in just those ways. I don't think I'm convinced enough to predict an upset, but I'll probably regret it.
Will Win: Nomadland (came *this* close to changing, but nope, not convinced)
Could Win: The Father
Should Win: Nomadland
Should Have Been Here: First Cow
Production Design
The nominees:
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
A quiet, respectable, vaguely lackluster category. Mank probably takes it on virtue of having the 'most' and being Hollywood-centric, while Ma Rainey could swoop in by virtue of being the most Ma Rainey, whose primary role this season has been swooping, and I suppose The Father could capitalize on the last-second love, but it's also set entirely in a couple apartments--as innovatively as it uses its design, it's not the kind of work the Academy recognizes here.
Will Win: Mank
Could Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Should Win: News of the World
Should Have Been Here: Promising Young Woman
Costume Design
The nominees:
Emma
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio
Probably an easy win for Ma Rainey's 89-year old Ann Roth. Emma looks to play spoiler if the Academy is looking to reward flamboyance.
Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Emma
Should Win: Emma
Should Have Been Here: Ammonite
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
A wacky little category in a year largely absent of the big blockbusters it loves. So, as basically the only big summer blockbuster to come out last year--and from Christopher Nolan, no less, whose films frequently triumph here--look to Tenet to win this in a backwards walk.
Will Win: Tenet
Could Win: The One and Only Ivan
Should Win: Tenet
Should Have Been Here: Welcome to Chechnya
Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
Another instance of Ma Rainey fighting off a scrappy competitor, this time the questionable looks in Hillbilly Elegy. It's so tempting to go for a Hillbilly party here, but I don't think this happens without Close winning in Supporting Actress, and Ma Rainey's got a ton of strength in these below the line categories. That said, if Hillbilly *does* win, cast a weary eye toward that Supporting Actress race.
Will Win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Could Win: Hillbilly Elegy
Should Win: Pinocchio
Should Have Been Here: Possessor
Film Editing
The nominees:
The Father
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Here we are, another big ol fight-y category, with only Promising Young Woman seeming out of the running. Smart money says this is a duel between Sound of Metal and The Trial of the Chicago 7, Metal's unfussy pacing and repeating structures against Trial's all-in style of cutting the whole movie like it's an action scene. Divide how much the Academy warms to either approach by both movies' Best Picture power, and there you go. Since the two of them are so close, it's totally plausible that Nomadland goes on a bit of a spree on its way to winning the big prizes, or that The Father's late-breaking wave pays dividends here. Really, any of these four could take it and I wouldn't bat an eye.
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: Bloody Nose, Empty Pockets
Cinematography
The nominees:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
A solid, handsome little category (with the exception of Chicago 7--god, its presence here traumatizes me anew) without much fight in it. There's a vague chance that Mank's black and white cinematography carries the day, but it's hard for anyone to argue against Nomadland taking the crown here.
Will Win: Nomadland
Could Win: Mank
Should Win: Nomadland
Should Have Been Here: Vitalina Varela
Original Score
The nominees:
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
If Minari manages to unseat Soul here, look for it to go on a major run. Otherwise, Soul walks away with this and we'll all have to keep holding our breath a little longer.
Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Minari
Should Win: Soul
Should Have Been Here: Tenet
Sound
The nominees:
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
This has to go to Sound of Metal--it's right there in the title. I suppose Mank's 10 nomination-tally could mean that it demands a couple wins, and here is as good a place as any, but it's tough to imagine it being able to upend Sound of Metal's best chance at recognition, and Soul has an argument as both an animated film and a movie about music, but only one animated movie has won an Oscar for its sound before (The Incredibles in 2004).
Will Win: Sound of Metal
Could Win: Soul
Should Win: Sound of Metal
Should Have Been Here: The Invisible Man
Original Song
The nominees:
"Fight for You"-Judas and the Black Messiah
"Hear My Voice"-The Trial of the Chicago 7
"Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
"Io Si"-The Life Ahead
"Speak Now"-One Night in Miami
By turns dull and fantastic, just like this category is meant to be! Nothing would melt my shriveled frozen heart than seeing Diane Warren, perennial Oscar chanteuse, kaiju in hiding, and that bitch, finally winning her Oscar at long last for the delightful caterwauling "Io Si." My heart would experience a similar level of climate change if "Husavik," the best ironic/unironic bop of the year, managed a win (which I could then pretend would go to Rachel McAdams). The rest of the options are a little bleaker, and also probably more likely to actually happen. "Speak Now" is solid, and is a good way to honor Regina King's film, as well as getting to give an Oscar to Hamilton by association, which I have to assume is something that the Academy has been doodling about. The others are less likely, but watch them give it to "Hear My Voice" and then hear my voice as I shoot into the heavens on pure rage alone.
Will Win: "Speak Now"-One Night in Miami
Could Win: "Io Si"-The Life Ahead
Should Win: "Husavik"-Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Should Have Been Here: "Your Name Engraved Herein"-Your Name Engraved Herein
Animated Film
The nominees:
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Very little intrigue here--Soul wins this, no contest. Which, while it's a lovely movie, is a bit of a shame. Pixar will have won 11 out of the 20 Oscars ever given in this category. And Pixar is great! But it's not the only game in town.
Will Win: Soul
Could Win: Wolfwalkers
Should Win: Wolfwalkers
Should Have Been Here: Ride Your Wave
International Film
The nominees:
Another Round-Denmark
Better Days-Hong Kong
Collective-Romania
The Man Who Sold His Skin-Tunisia
Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina
Again, a total steamroller category, this time benefitting apparent masterwork Another Round. (Sorry y'all, I'm sure this movie is actually great, but boy do I hate it and am salty that the world isn't exactly what I demand it should be.)
Will Win: Another Round-Denmark
Could Win: Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina
Should Win: Quo Vadis, Aida?-Bosnia and Herzegovina
Should Have Been Here: La Llorona-Guatemala
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Crip Camp
Collective
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time
Last September, a little film (ostensibly) about an octopus dropped on netflix with nary a splash, but people loved it, and it's ridden that wave all the way to the Oscar, drowning its competitors with its own popularity. Sunday night, it'll wash onto the stage, in hopes of making some bad water puns during the speech, I assume. Look, I won't pretend that all of the other movies in this category aren't superior (that Time and Collective, in particular, will lose to the sad boy octopus movie is...difficult), but I can't wait to watch the guy's speech go two minutes too long and then he has to dash back onstage because he forgot to thank the octopus.
And there's that! I've got Nomadland as the biggest winner of the night with four wins, but I'm expecting the wealth to get spread fairly evenly. We'll see how it goes! I feel somehow both much more and much less confident about my predictions than I normally do, which, I suppose, is also how I feel about my life too. It's a mystery!
