Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Oscar Nominations: Hit me harder, I can still hear them.

Oscar nomination morning is like Christmas: There's tons of build up and anticipation, but sometimes the things you wanted just aren't under the tree. Such is the case this year. Oh well. Let's get to it, shall we? I'll put an asterisk next to the ones I predicted correctly.

Best Picture
The Artist*
The Descendants*
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help*
Hugo*
Midnight in Paris*
Moneyball*
The Tree of Life*
War Horse
Nine nominees, and they managed to fit at least three mediocre films in there. Kudos, I guess? When I said that I figured Extremely Loud... had to show up somewhere, I didn't really mean it to this extent. They could have made worse choices for best picture, but not by that much. Toss in The Help and War Horse, and we've got some stunningly uninteresting choices. All I can say is thank goodness The Tree of Life made it in.
Early winner prediction: The Artist

Best Director
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris*
Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist*
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life*
Alexander Payne-The Descendants*
Martin Scorsese-Hugo*
Five for five, and yay Terrence Malick! I'm so happy he got recognized here. And I suppose this lineup could be worse. It's hardly the lineup I would have picked, but at least the unholy trinity (Help, Extremely Loud..., War Horse) didn't show up here.
Early winner prediction: Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist

Best Actor
Demian Bichir-A Better Life
George Clooney-The Descendants*
Jean Dujardin-The Artist*
Gary Oldman-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Brad Pitt-Moneyball*
This was a hugely surprising category this year. It's fun to see Bichir and Oldman in here, but certainly not at Michael Fassbender's expense *despair*. At least Leonardo Dicaprio didn't make it in!
Early winner prediction: George Clooney-The Descendants

Best Actress
Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs*
Viola Davis-The Help*
Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady*
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn*
Well, Rooney Mara slides in after all. I haven't seen Tilda Swinton's performance in We Need to Talk About Kevin, so I'm not sure how disappointed I should be. Similarly, I haven't seen Albert Nobbs, so I can't show as much annoyance at Glenn Close getting in as other bloggers can. Give me time though; I'm sure I'll come to hate it as much as the next guy.
Early winner prediction: Viola Davis-The Help

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn*
Jonah Hill-Moneyball
Nick Nolte-Warrior*
Christopher Plummer-Beginners*
Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
I hate, hate, hate that Albert Brooks missed for Drive, particularly when Jonah Hill did, in fact, make it. Y'know, I originally had Von Sydow in my predicted five, but then I saw the movie and thought there was no way it would happen. Maybe I saw a different movie than the Academy?
Early winner prediction: Christopher Plummer-Beginners

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo-The Artist*
Jessica Chastain-The Help*
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs*
Octavia Spencer-The Help*
How strange is it that we can now call a performance that involves pooping into a sink an oscar-nominated achievement? Not that I'm complaining. I love Bridesmaids, so I'll take anything it can get. I'm a little surprised that Shailene Woodley/The Descendants missed, but them's the breaks.
Early winner prediction: Octavia Spencer-The Help

Original Screenplay
The Artist*
Bridesmaids*
Margin Call*
Midnight in Paris*
A Separation
Really surprised that 50/50 didn't make it here, but it's really fun to see A Separation get in. Ditto Bridesmaids; if Kristen Wiig can't break into the lead actress race, the least she deserves is a writing nomination.
Early winner prediction: Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants*
Hugo*
The Ides of March
Moneyball*
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy
No Help? This morning definitively showed us that The Help might not have been the Oscar Juggernaut we were all expecting, and that Tinker, Tailor... had more support than originally anticipated. Glad to see The Ides of March make it; it's not a great movie, but it is a well-written one.

Art Direction
The Artist*
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*
Hugo*
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
A few surprises here. I though Midnight in Paris had a chance in a tech category, but I figured Costume Design was its most likely place. Also did not expect War Horse to make it in, because it relies so heavily on exteriors instead of elaborate sets. And since they're in the same category, I think this is a good time to float my opinion that Harry Potter is a far more interesting British war movie than War Horse. Just saying.
Early winner prediction: Hugo

Costume Design
Anonymous*
The Artist*
Hugo*
Jane Eyre*
W.E.
As I expected, the Academy just couldn't turn down Anonymous's Elizabethan antics, nor, apparently, could they turn down nominating at least one awful movie per year in this category. Hello W.E.!
Early winner prediction: Hugo

Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*
Hugo*
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes*
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
What the hell is Real Steel doing here? And at the expense of The Tree of Life? This is the worst. How did The Tree of Life not make it here? This makes me sad.
Early winner prediction: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Makeup
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2*
The Iron Lady*
Yay Harry Potter! I really wish Harry Potter had showed up in more places this morning, but I'll just have to celebrate it landing wherever it can.
Early winner prediction: The Iron Lady

Film Editing
The Artist*
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*
Hugo*
Moneyball*
Not sure I'm thrilled with this category. I probably should have predicted The Descendants in this race. The fact that it showed up here means it's not yet dead in the Best Picture race.
Early winner prediction: The Artist

Cinematography
The Artist*
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo*
Hugo*
The Tree of Life*
War Horse*
I'm fine with most of these nominees (Tree of Life!), but I really see no need for War Horse to show up here at the expense of more competently shot films. Such is the draw of Spielberg, I guess. Even when he doesn't do his best, his movies are still awards magnets.

Original Score
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist*
Hugo*
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
War Horse*
I suppose I'm ok with this lineup. My favorites, like Hanna and Attack the Block never had a chance here anyhow, though I'm sad Harry Potter didn't make it here. I almost predicted Tinker, Tailor, but switched at the last minute because 'Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close' had to show up somewhere. ....Well, it did. At 48%, that movie's got to have just about the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of any Best Picture nominee ever.
Early winner prediction: The Artist

Sound Mixing
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo*
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
War Horse*
Moneyball showing up here suggests a hitherto unsuspected love for that film among the Academy. Does that mean something? Is it going to sneak in and steal screenplay or actor from The Descendants? I hope so, honestly.
Early winner prediction: War Horse

Sound Editing
Drive
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon*
War Horse*
Drive's nomination, its only one of the morning, almost feels like a slap to the face. I mean, I'd like to say it's better than nothing, but I might have preferred it to have been ignored by the Academy, rather than tossed one little bone. I'd like to further lament the absence of Harry Potter in the sound categories. Someone really needs to explain to me how Hugo's sound design is more deserving of recognition.
Early winner prediction: War Horse

Original Song
"Man or Muppet"-The Muppets
"Real in Rio"-Rio
Only two nominees, and I didn't guess either of them correctly. That's got to be some kind of record for me. On a related note, why on earth are there only two nominees?
Early winner prediction: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

Animated Film
A Cat in Paris
Chico and Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2*
Puss in Boots*
Rango*
In a move I should have anticipated, arthouse fare dominated this category, in a year when most of the studio stuff failed to impress. As expected, Tintin failed to show up here, most likely due to the branch's dislike of motion-capture animation. I'm glad Cars 2 didn't make it--it was pretty awful, and the last thing Pixar needs is validation for acting on their worst instincts.
Early winner prediction: Rango

Foreign Language Film
Bullhead-Belgium
Footnote-Israel*
In Darkness-Poland*
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada*
A Separation-Iran*
Israel continues its spectacular nomination streak in this category, and A Separation continues its march toward Oscar glory. Surprised to see Bullhead here: I haven't seen it, but allegedly it's a thoroughly atypical nominee, so that's fun.
Early winner prediction: A Separation

Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again*
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory*
Pina*
Undefeated
Really, really surprised that Project Nim didn't make the cut, sad that We Were Here didn't, and excited for Pina.
Early winner prediction: I have no idea. ....Paradise Lost, maybe?


Note: of the main nominees (ie not animated, foreign, or documentary), I haven't seen Albert Nobbs, Margin Call, A Separation, W.E., or Real Steel. Margin Call is sitting on my TV right now, so I'm confident I'll be able to see that one, and I'm sure Albert Nobbs will stagger into theaters in the near future. The others? I'm not sure if I'll be able to pick them up before Oscar night.

This was not a good prediction session for me. I missed a ton. Probably because I was expecting the Academy to be a little more interesting in their choices. My mistake, I suppose.

Here's a list of the 10 most nominated films:
1. Hugo-11
2. The Artist-10
3. Moneyball-6
4. War Horse-6
5. The Descendants-5
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-5
7. Midnight in Paris-4
8. The Help-4
9. The Tree of Life-3
10. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy-3

And here's a list of some notable films that didn't get any nominations: Shame, J. Edgar, We Need to Talk About Kevin, 50/50, Win Win, Super 8, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Captain America: The First Avenger, Arthur Christmas, Take Shelter, Cars 2, Young Adult, Melancholia, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Coriolanus, Immortals, X-Men: First Class, Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, Hanna, Weekend, Attack the Block, Thor...Big list this year, and I'm sure there are other's I'm not thinking of.

Well, what do you think? Obviously, I'm a bit disappointed, but how about you? Good things? Bad things? Sound off in the comments.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Summing it Up

Alright, back again. Oscar nominations come out in roughly 22 hours, which means that in 22 hours no one, including myself, will be thinking about what was predicted so much as what actually happened. Until then, though, we get to continue to have fun trying to read the tea leaves. Today, I'm just going to collect everything in one place: I'll offer up all my predictions, in order of likelihood and without commentary, and only allow myself one alternate. Incidentally, I know it's strange to write so much about predicting the Academy's best-of-the-year picks without talking about my own, so know that my own 'best of 2011' lists are coming down the pike. I've just got a few more movies I need to see. I imagine I'll get those lists up somewhere in early to mid February. Before the Oscars, anyway. Just know for now that If I could automatically guarantee a nomination, I'd have to choose between Michael Fassbender for Actor, Charlize Theron for Actress, and The Tree of Life for Visual Effects. If I could automatically prevent a nomination, it would be Leonardo Dicaprio in Actor, and while I'm not actually predicting it to happen, I'm sending plenty of "please don't be nominated" vibes Jonah Hill's way as well.

Note: Since I've posted them, I've changed four predictions: In Supporting Actor, I've kicked Viggo Mortensen out of the top 5 and replaced him with Nick Nolte, in Original Screenplay I've replaced Win Win with Margin Call (and made Win Win my alternate instead of A Separation), and I've changed the alternates for Original Score and Animated Film.

Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
Alternate: War Horse

Best Director
Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist
Martin Scorsese-Hugo
Alexander Payne-The Descendants
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life
Alternate-David Fincher-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Actor
George Clooney-The Descendants
Brad Pitt-Moneyball
Jean Dujardin-The Artist
Michael Fassbender-Shame
Leonardo Dicaprio-J. Edgar
Alternate-Michael Shannon-Take Shelter

Best Actress
Viola Davis-The Help
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin
Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs
Alternate-Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer-Beginners
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks-Drive
Nick Nolte-Warrior
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March
Alternate: Jonah Hill-Moneyball

Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Berenice Bejo-The Artist
Jessica Chastain-The Help
Shailene Woodley-The Descendants
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs
Alternate-Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids

Original Screenplay
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
50/50
Bridesmaids
Margin Call
Alternate-Win Win

Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Moneyball
The Help
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Art Direction
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Help
Alternate: War Horse

Costume Design
Hugo
The Artist
Jane Eyre
The Help
Anonymous
Alternate: W.E.

Visual Effects
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
Alternate-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Makeup
The Iron Lady
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternate-The Artist

Film Editing
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
War Horse
Alternate: The Descendants

Cinematography
The Tree of Life
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Original Score
The Artist
War Horse
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Sound Mixing
Hugo
Super 8
War Horse
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternate-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Sound Editing
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Alternate: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Original Song
"Life's a Happy Song"-The Muppets
"Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets
"The Living Proof"-The Help
"Star Spangled Man"-Captain America: The First Avenger
"Lay Your Head Down"-Albert Nobbs
Alternate: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

Animated Film
Rango
Puss in Boots
Kung Fu Panda 2
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Alternate-The Adventures of Tin Tin

Foreign Language Film
A Separation-Iran
In Darkness-Poland
Footnote-Israel
Omar Killed Me-Morocco
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada
Alternate-Pina-Germany

Documentary Feature
Project Nim
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Hell and Back Again
We Were Here
Alternate-Buck

There we have it! Tune in tomorrow to see everything that I got wrong!

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Craft Categories

Alright, here's my last salvo of predictions. Today, we're going to tackle all the craft categories. Because there are ten of them, and because they're not the kind of races I can analyze with certainty like the major categories, I'm going to try to keep commentary fairly brief. Here goes!

Art Direction
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Help
Alternates: War Horse, The Tree of Life

So the top three are definitely in. The bottom two aren't as set, but Tinker, Tailor has to show up somewhere, and I imagine The Help is going to rack up a pretty impressive nomination total. War Horse and The Tree of Life both have support, but I don't think it's enough. For some more adventurous options, they might consider Pirates of the Caribbean or Captain America. Alternately, if they're feeling less adventurous, Anonymous might slide in.

Costume Design
Hugo
The Artist
Jane Eyre
The Help
Anonymous
Alternates: W.E., Captain America: The First Avenger

Hugo and The Artist are golden. Jane Eyre and The Help are solid enough, and I can't imagine the Academy not responding to all the frills in Anonymous. It kind of bugs me, not having a wacky nomination in there, which is why W.E. is so close to the top. I'd like to think they're adventurous enough to do something like Captain America or (even more unlikely/more fun) Thor or Immortals, but chances are they might spring for something more traditional like My Week with Marilyn instead.

Visual Effects
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
Alternates: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Captain America: The First Avenger

Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think The Tree of Life's spectacular creation scenes are going to find a home here. It's probably more likely that a more standard, CGI-driven affair will take the 5th spot instead, but I can hope, can't I? Incidentally, the Academy has already narrowed this category down to ten finalists. The other three possibilities are Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, X-Men: First Class, and Real Steel. Either of the first two also have a strong shot for the 5th spot, which is really the only one up for grabs.

Makeup
The Iron Lady
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternates: The Artist, Hugo

Similar to the Visual Effects category, this one has been narrowed to seven finalists. The Iron Lady is full of very competent aging makeup, so it's in. When something as obscure as Gainsbourg makes the top seven, then it's not a good idea to bet against it going all the way. That leaves one spot, which I imagine will be carried by "last chance to reward it" sentiments for Harry Potter. Watch out for The Artist, though. The other two finalists that I have yet to mention are Albert Nobbs and Anonymous, but I can't see either of them making it. This category is notoriously finnicky, though, so who knows what's going to happen?

Film Editing
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
War Horse
Alternates: The Descendants, Drive

This category tends to go for best picture hopefuls and the occasional action movie. As such, I really ought to have The Descendants in the top 5, but I have a hunch that Moneyball will make it in. Maybe War Horse isn't in the top 5? Dunno. If it's going to get nominated anywhere, it's probably here. Extra cool points to the Academy for nominating Drive or The Tree of Life; both possible, but unlikely.

Cinematography
The Tree of Life
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Alternates: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

The top three (maybe four) spots are completely locked in. War Horse looks awfully vulnerable, but I'm leaving it for now. Either Tinker, Tailor's icy lensing or Harry Potter's attempts at iconic imagery could easily sneak in here. Possible Drive or Moneyball, but don't count on it. I feel like this category's primed for a really surprising nominee, but I've no idea what it would be. Which makes sense, given that it's a surprise.

Original Score
The Artist
War Horse
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alternates: The Help, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

This category's really tough. I'm only 100% confident on The Artist. All the other slots could be taken by the alternates, or by Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Adventures of Tin Tin, Jane Eyre, The Skin I Live In, or some other mystery soundtrack. Who knows? I've got Extremely Loud here because that movie's got to end up in some category, and this seems like the safest call. Shame the composer, Alexandre Desplat, isn't taking the spot for his more effective work on Harry Potter.

Sound Mixing
Hugo
Super 8
War Horse
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternates: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

I honestly think the sound categories are the absolute hardest categories to predict this year. I'm prepared to only get one or two right come Tuesday morning. Watch out for Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, Hanna, and The Adventures of Tin Tin, just to name a few.

Sound Editing
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Alternates: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

I just might go 0/5 in this category. It's that tough. Rango, Hugo, and The Adventures of Tin Tin linger on the edges.

Original Song
"Life's a Happy Song"-The Muppets
"Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets
"The Living Proof"-The Help
"Star Spangled Man"-Captain America: The First Avenger
"Lay Your Head Down"-Albert Nobbs
Alternates: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets, "Hello Hello"-Gnomeo and Juliet

I hate predicting this category. Its nomination process is bizarre (it involves a ten-point ranking system), the number of nominees isn't set (there could be 2-5 nominees, or no nominees at all), and the Academy never follows a pattern. That said, two Muppet songs are in (but only two, because that's the limit on nominations in this category for each movie). Past that? I don't know. These five have seemed like the most likely choices for about five months now, which of course means that at least one of them is wrong. Possible spoilers include "Bridge of Light" from Happy Feet 2, "Where the River Goes" from Footloose, "The Keeper" from Machine Gun Preacher, and "Think You Can Wait" from Win Win.


There we have it! I'll put all my predictions in one place tomorrow, but for now, they're all done. I just need to wait and see what I've gotten wrong! And really, being wrong is probably half the fun of predicting Oscars anyway.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Acting

What better way to spend your Saturday than familiarizing yourself with some Oscar hopefuls? Read this, figure out what sounds good, and go see a movie. I'm here to help. ...Also, to predict, but I help too. Anyhow...

Best Actor
Finally, a race that makes some sense to me. The lead races are pretty easy to figure out this year, which will be a fun contrast to the hellish nightmare we'll get to enjoy with the supporting categories. I honestly think the top 5 are pretty much set here. The top three spots--George Clooney in The Descendants, Jean Dujardin in The Artist, and Brad Pitt in Moneyball--aren't going to be changing any time soon. Honestly, I don't think the last two spots will either. Leonardo Dicaprio's probably in for J. Edgar; sure, the movie got poor reviews, but so did Clint Eastwood's Invictus, which went home with two acting nominations. Bad reviews never stop the Academy from giving out "meh, you tried" nominations. Michael Fassbender is probably also in for Shame. Now, I've been hearing talk of a Fassbender snub recently, but I'm just not buying it. Admittedly, I might not be buying it because I really love the performance and am letting my own tastes get in the way, and I recognize that both the performance and the film are hardly typical Oscar fare. That being said, who's going to push him out? Surprise nominations are usually garnered by small, spunky independent contenders who are critically respected but underseen, and they tend to knock out bigger, more obvious contenders. If anything, Dicaprio's more vulnerable than Fassbender, because Dicaprio's primed to be upset by an underdog, whereas Fassbender is an underdog, at least when it comes to being a standard Oscar movie. If there is an upset, who would it be? Maybe Michael Shannon in Take Shelter, who is the only one who could do it; I don't see either Demian Bichir in A Better Life or Gary Oldman in Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy making it, regardless of what other bloggers would have me believe. Nope, I'm confident with my top 5.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
George Clooney-The Descendants
Brad Pitt-Moneyball
Jean Dujardin-The Artist
Michael Fassbender-Shame
Leonardo Dicaprio-J. Edgar
Alternates: Michael Shannon-Take Shelter, Demian Bichir-A Better Life

Best Actress
Here's the funny thing: this category is almost the same as lead actor. Swap out the names, repeat the argument, we're good to go. Top three spots--Viola Davis/The Help, Meryl Streep/The Iron Lady, Michelle Williams/My Week with Marilyn--are golden. Bottom two are spots are filled with a scrappy indie not-traditionally-oscar contender (Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk About Kevin) and a "meh, you tried" nomination (Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs). The only difference between these two categories is I'm more open to the idea of one of the slots changing. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has been coming on really strong the past couple weeks, which could help Rooney Mara immensely. I could easily see her stealing one of the more fluid bottom slots. That being said, I think Swinton's this-nomination-is-really-an-apology-for-not-noticing-you-in-Julia-and-I Am Love narrative, as well as Close's ahmygawd-Glenn-welcome-back-at-least-you-got-the-movie-made will defeat Rooney's "exciting new ingenue" flair.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Viola Davis-The Help
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin
Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs
Alternates: Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Charlize Theron-Young Adult

Best Supporting Actor
I hate this category so, so much. I know exactly one thing: Christopher Plummer is a lock for Beginners. The rest? I've no clue whatsoever. Anyone could get it, and I still don't even know who I want to predict. So I'm just going to list all twelve possibilities (yup, twelve, and all of them have a good shot) and hope that when I'm done, I'll have made a decision or two. In alphabetical order:
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn:Here's about as close to another lock as it gets. I don't understand what people love about this performance, but apparently they do. Oscar loves famous people imitating other famous peoples, Branagh's Olivier should succeed here.
Albert Brooks-Drive: I used to be way more confident here, but Brooks has missed some important precursors. Maybe the Academy just isn't cool enough to reward Drive? I really hope that's not the case.
Armie Hammer-J. Edgar: If J. Edgar feels like repeating Invictus's Oscar history, this could happen; Hammer is admittedly the best thing about this movie, and he's got Leo's coattails to hold onto.
Jonah Hill-Moneyball: I acknowledge that I really ought to predict Hill in this category, but I just don't want to. It's not right, dammit. Besides, I've got a hunch that he'll miss. Or maybe my hunch is just a hope.
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March: If Hoffman gets in for this, one of his laziest, most repetitive performances, I'm going to scream. Still, The Ides of March has got to show up somewhere, and Hoffman is a tried and tested default nominee. *sigh*
Ben Kingsley-Hugo: I really, really thought Kingsley's campaign would take off more. He's a respected former nominee, playing a famous person who is the emotional backbone of the best segment of Hugo. That being said, he's shown up in almost none of the precursors. I guess people have just forgotten him.
Viggo Mortensen-A Dangerous Method: Mortensen scored a surprise Golden Globe nomination for this category, which resuscitated his campaign, but no one seems to be talking about this movie.
Nick Nolte-Warrior: About once a decade, people seem to enjoy Nick Nolte's work. He's been nominated for a lot of supporting awards this season, but I can't shake the feeling that Warrior might be forgotten altogether.
Patton Oswalt-Young Adult: Here's another movie that's been forgotten. Sure, Oswalt's charming and fairly deserving, but voters just aren't responding to his film.
Brad Pitt-The Tree of Life: Maybe this is wishful thinking, or maybe people will be voting for Moneyball and will remember just how good Pitt was in this film as well.
Andy Serkis-Rise of the Planet of the Apes: Hey, it could happen. He's earned a bunch of awards/nominations on the precursor circuit. That being said, I can't see the Academy rewarding an entirely motion-capture performance just quite yet. I'd love to be wrong, though.
Corey Stoll-Midnight in Paris: I'd love for this to happen. Stoll's Hemingway is easily the most memorable part of Midnight in Paris, and the movie has done very well for itself thus far. Could he be the big surprise?
Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close: About three hours ago, I was pretty sure I was going to put Von Sydow in the top five. Then I saw the movie. Not only are the reviews brutal, Von Sydow's character isn't around much, and doesn't have much to do with the time he's given. Still, I suppose he could slip in on residual love for other movies.
Y'know, that didn't help at all. I've got no idea who to predict. Oh well. I'm just going to start typing and we'll see what happens.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Christopher Plummer-Beginners
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks-Drive
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March
Viggo Mortensen-A Dangerous Method
Alternates: Jonah Hill-Moneyball, Nick Nolte-Warrior, Corey Stoll-Midnight in Paris
(Yeah, I get three, because I'm so lost. I honestly didn't even have Hoffman or Mortensen in my top 10 until about 30 seconds ago. Just watch-it's going to be Hill and Nolte. I know it. Shoot.)

Best Supporting Actress
Well, that was embarrassingly long. Supporting Actress is also very difficult to predict, but refreshingly so, in that there are only 6 women still in the running. The problem is that only one of them is safe. That's Octavia Spencer for The Help. She's won a Critics' Choice award and a Golden Globe, so she's in. The other five women? Any of them could do it. They are:
Berenice Bejo-The Artist: She's essentially a co-lead in the Best Picture front-runner, and it doesn't hurt that she's fantastic. I feel confident that she'll make it in.
Jessica Chastain-The Help: This category has a penchant for picking two women from the same movie, and Jessica Chastain has had one hell of a year, with great performances in this, The Tree of Life, Take Shelter, Coriolanus, etc. Unfortunately, all those great performances might work against her; if voters can't decide which movie they like best, she'll split too many votes between all her various roles.
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids: It's so fun that we can even consider this. Sure, she hardly gives my favorite performance in the film, but it would be such a wacky, atypical Oscar nomination that I don't even care. That being said, the wacky, atypical-ness of it all is her biggest problem right now.
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs: People don't like this movie, which hurts, but apparently McTeer steals the show (which I haven't seen yet), which helps. Plus she's the only former nominee still in the running, which has to give her a leg up.
Shailene Woodley-The Descendants: She's in a popular film, and she's quite good, but she's just so young. Are they going to want to reward a 20-year old whose only known for being in The Secret Life of the American Teenager, or will they make her wait?
...I should probably briefly mention Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus. Allegedly, it's an incredible performance, but the film's just not being seen, and the people that do see it don't like it. If anyone surprises in this category, it'll be her; just don't count on it.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Berenice Bejo-The Artist
Jessica Chastain-The Help
Shailene Woodley-The Descendants
Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs
Alternates: Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids, Vanessa Redgrave-Coriolanus

Phew. That was much longer than anticipated. I completely forgive you for not reading the whole post. Tomorrow, I'll post some brief thoughts on all the craft categories, and then we'll wrap it up Monday!

Friday, January 20, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 2: Directing and Screenplays

Back again! Let's knock a few more categories off the predictions list, shall we? First up:

Best Director
To begin with, this category has three mortal locks: Michel Hazanivicius for The Artist, Alexander Payne for The Descendants, and Martin Scorsese for Hugo. None of these guys are going anywhere. That, in my mind, leaves four directors competing for two spots. They are:
-Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris-Admittedly, I should probably have Allen in the 'lock' category. People love this movie, and he's hit all the right precursor awards. Still, I'm having the tiniest bit of doubt about the Academy rewarding the director of something so light on its feet and seemingly effortless (no matter how hard effortless is to do) as Midnight in Paris. I'm sure he'll get in, but I'm not 100% sure, so he's not a lock.
-David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-Whether this nomination happens depends on A) just how sorry they are for The King's Speech, and B) whether or not enough voters stick up for more unorthodox choices, or if people just go with the previously established consensus. Not to say that Dragon Tattoo is conventional Oscar bait; it's just an easier choice than, say...
-Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life-This movie is, above all, a director's achievement, and I really hope the Academy will recognize that. Still, as I mentioned in my last post, The Tree of Life is hardly an Oscar-friendly film.
-Steven Spielberg, War Horse-I don't really think this is going to happen. I definitely could be underestimating War Horse, however, and if I am, then Spielberg could still slide in here.
-Other remote possibilities: if The Help becomes an Oscar juggernaut (god help us), then expect to see Tate Taylor here. Alternately, if the directors' branch feels really, really adventurous, we could see Nicholas Winding Refn show up here for Drive. While the directors used to give out plenty of left-field directing nominations, they haven't done anything this out-there since Fernando Meirelles and City of God in 2003 (...though I guess you could make an argument for Mike Leigh/Vera Drake in 2004 and Paul Greengrass/United 93 in 2006).
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist
Martin Scorsese-Hugo
Alexander Payne-The Descendants
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life
Alternates: Davind Fincher-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Steven Spielberg-War Horse

Best Original Screenplay
Man, this category is driving me crazy this year. So Midnight in Paris and The Artist are safe. Past that, I've really got no idea. On the comedy end of the spectrum, we've got 50/50, which has done surprisingly well at the precursors, Bridesmaids, which I expect to show up somewhere on nominations morning, and Young Adult, whose Diablo Cody/Jason Reitman pedigree is excellent, but it just hasn't performed the way it should have. Since Oscar voters rarely respond to comedy (although that happens most frequently in this category), we should look at the drama options: Todd McCarthy has had success in this category, so his new dramedy Win Win could show up. Asgar Farhadi's A Separation could've had this nomination locked if it released earlier, but their 'hold onto it until December 30th and then just hope' release strategy backfired, so now I'm not so confident. The Tree of Life is bound to be honored somewhere, but I can't see Screenplay being one of those places. Still, you never know. Finally, we've got some unlikely indie contenders: Beginners could make it in on the coattails of Christopher Plummer's Oscar campaign, ditto Take Shelter and Michael Shannon and Michael Fassbender and Shame, and maybe Martha Marcy May Marlene could still have gas in its tank, but I doubt it. And we haven't even mentioned Margin Call yet.
...Y'know, after writing out an embarrassing amount of options, I still have no idea what to predict. Good grief. This category is just ridiculous this year.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
50/50
Bridesmaids
Win Win
Alternates: A Separation, Margin Call

Best Adapted Screenplay
Here's a category I'm much for comfortable with, because it's just stacked with Best Picture heavyweights, which means all I have to do is pick a few. The Descendants and Moneyball are definitely in. Meanwhile, Hugo and The Help get in on the strength of their Best Picture campaigns, despite not being praised for their writing. That leaves one slot. Conventional wisdom suggests The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo gets in because it's the next strongest Best Picture contender, but sometimes the writers will pick an outside choice like The Ides of March, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, or even Drive. I don't think any of those have enough support to distinguish themselves from each other, though, and when none of the smaller movies have passionate enough support, the consensus choice gets in.
My Predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Descendants
Moneyball
The Help
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alternates: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Ides of March


That just about wraps it up for today. I'm going to leave off acting predictions for tomorrow, because by then I'll have finally gotten around to seeing Shame. So come back tomorrow for what's got to be the second-hardest (hardest? That'd be Sound Mixing) category to predict this year.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Best Picture

It's that time of year again; the magical one-month space in which I come back to play yet another blogging farewell tour, clogging everyone's news feed with Oscar predictions/preferences/general silliness. What can I say? It's tradition. Today, I'm starting my sure-to-be-scintillating five-part post predicting Oscar nominations, which are revealed Tuesday, Jan. 24th. Doing one post a day, I should be able to wrap everything up on Monday, just in time for y'all to see how many predictions I get wrong. Tomorrow, I'll do directing/screenplays, Saturday will be Acting, and Sunday will be Craft categories. I'll post final predictions on Monday, just to put everything in one convenient location.
Let's start with the big one, the only one that normal people will probably ever hear about: Best Picture. The Academy's done a funky thing this year. They've changed the rules: no less than 5 and no more than 10 movies will be nominated. To secure a spot, a film must land at least 5% of the total #1 spots on Academy voters' ballots. If more than 5 movies do this, then we'll have a bizarre number of nominees, like 9 (which just slays the obsessive-compulsive part of me). And we aren't going to know how many Best Picture nominees there will be until the presenter on Tuesday (the always-wonderful Jennifer Lawrence this year) stops reading. In other words, this year it's going to be hell to get everything right, and it's going to mess up statistics for decades to come. Whee!
Ok, to start off, I'm narrowing things down to three groups.
Group 1: Movies that are in for sure
Admittedly, there's no such thing as a sure thing, but any of these five movies missing would be a huge shock. They are:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
That's five movies. Potentially, that could be it. Five movies, five nominees. I don't think so, however. Too many other films have had success with other awards bodies/critics/box-office/etc. for there to be only five nominees. So, with that in mind:

Group 2: Movies that will be fighting like starving hobos for the extra slots
This is where it gets ugly, because up to five more movies *can* make it in. The trick is whether they will or not. The films most likely to fill out the nominee list to a respectable number are:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
All of these movies have something going for them. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, though not the most critically beloved movie of the year, has done surprisingly well with the Guilds (which are other industry awards) as well as the box office. It seems awards voters already feel like apologizing to David Fincher for last year's King's Speech triumph over The Social Network. I'm all for people admitting that The King's Speech is inferior, I just wish it would benefit a better film than Dragon Tattoo. Next up, Moneyball is a very successful, well-liked and respected film. I'm not sure it's got the passion to go the distance, though. Remember, movies need 5% of the #1 votes. That means that well-liked but not loved movies can fall to divisive movies with incredibly vocal fanbases. Which brings us to The Tree of Life. It's incredibly polarizing; some people call it a masterpiece, while plenty of other people can't even sit through the whole thing. Still, it's got awfully passionate support. And finally, War Horse. Once considered the front-runner, its less-than-enthusiastic reception with critics, audiences, and award-giving organizations means it's barely holding on. Old-fashioned voters may respond to War Horse as an ode to classic-era film-making, but they just might vote for Hugo or The Artist instead, which do the exact same cinema-homage thing without all the really poor directorial choices.
Now, these four films will almost undoubtedly fill out the rest of the nominees, but we've got one more group...
Group 3: Sneaky Bastards Who Might Ruin Someone's Day
In the unlikely event that there are 10 nominees, we'll need one more film. More likely, however, is that one of these films will sneak in and steal a spot from a movie in group 2. They are:
Bridesmaids
Drive
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Ides of March
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Now, I'm not saying that any of these films will be nominated. They all, however, have some kind of angle that could make them successful. Drive and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, for instance, are adored by critics, and could find their way to the top of enough ballots. Bridesmaids has huge love and support in the industry, but being a raunchy comedy (however successful) makes it difficult to get serious Oscar traction. Harry Potter was also critically successful, made an obscene amount of money, and will surely benefit from the "let's reward the last one" thing that awards shows love to do. Still, it's Harry Potter, a franchise which has never taken off with the Academy (the most nominated film in the series was the first one, which received a whopping 3 technical citations). And finally, apparently someone somewhere loves The Ides of March, because it keeps popping up at these end of the year awards, even though know one quite knows why.
So, all that said:
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
Alternates (or if we have 10 nominees): War Horse*, Bridesmaids
*note: I really, really should be predicting War Horse, and reserve the right to change this before my final predictions on Monday. I just really, really need The Tree of Life in Best Picture: Dinosaurs! 30 minute long creation sequences! More random shots of nature than there is dialog! Please guys, just let me have something this bizarre become a Best Picture nominee.

Now, I know this is where I'll lose just about everyone, but I've got a couple of more obscure categories to get out of the way which just don't fit thematically with any of my other planned posts. So:

Best Animated Feature
From the start, I should tell you that I'm absolutely lost in this category. Sans the absence of a preordained Pixar win (sorry Cars 2, but everyone hates you), there's a strange vacuum in this category. Three movies seem likely: first, the undeniable front-runner, Rango, which is almost universally respected, for some reason. Next, Puss in Boots and Kung Fu Panda 2 were both successful and painless enough to secure a berth here. After that? Hell if I know. On the commercial side, possibilities include The Adventures of Tin Tin, which is respected by critics but the animation branch has yet to embrace an animated film made entirely with motion-capture technology. Arthur Christmas garnered largely positive reviews, but it was kind of a box-office flop. As stated before, Cars 2 was hated by most everyone, but chances are that the animation branch will give it a nod anyhow, because it's Pixar and this hasn't been a sterling year for animation. On the "pretty but stupid" front, we have Rio, which no one really loves but made tons of money. And finally, there's Winnie the Pooh, which is a really rather delightful movie, but will probably play too young for Oscar. Now, 2009's nomination for The Secret of Kells taught us that sometimes little foreign contenders will come along and make everyone look foolish. On that front, Wrinkles, Chico and Rita, or A Cat in Paris could all succeed, but I just don't know enough about any of them to feel confident predicting a nomination.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Rango
Puss in Boots
Kung Fu Panda 2
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Alternates: Rio, Wrinkles

Best Foreign Language Film
Here's another category that's a monster to predict, largely because most of these films will never come within 1000 miles of me. Every year, the Academy narrows this category down to 9 eligible films. This year, we have:
A Separation-Iran
Bullhead-Belgium
Footnote-Israel
In Darkness-Poland
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada
Omar Killed Me-Morocco
Pina-Germany
SuperClasico-Denmark
Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale-Taiwan
So let's start with what we do know. A Separation has been at the top of a bunch of best-of lists, it's won just about every foreign-film prize under the sun, and it's hugely respected and admired. It has to be in. Next, In Darkness is a holocaust movie from a previous Oscar nominee. This category can never say no to the Holocaust, so it's also in. Next? I just don't know much about many of these films. Bullhead is apparently strange and unpleasant, but hell, so was last year's nominee Dogtooth, so I guess it's got a shot. Israel is on a roll with nominations, and Footnote has won some minor film festival prizes, so it's got a good shot. I don't know anything about Monsieur Lazhar, but other, more knowledgeable prognosticators seem to think it's in the running, so that's good enough for me. The makers of Omar Killed Me have been nominated for their past two films, so odds are they'll find success again. And Pina? Well, this dance documentary has got the second-most recognition in the US, and it's supposed to be wonderful, but this category has never nominated a documentary before. I'm just not sure. Finally, Warriors of the Rainbow showed up out of nowhere, and seems to be more of a "See, we have an Asian film, we don't only watch European movies" choice than anything else.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
A Separation-Iran
In Darkness-Poland
Footnote-Israel
Omar Killed Me-Morocco
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada
Alternates: Pina-Germany, Bullhead-Belgium
(Can I just say that I hope both Iran and Israel are nominated, if only because it would make the most awkward nominees' luncheon table in decades?)

Best Documentary Feature
Here, annually, is the category about which I'm least educated and least passionate about. And to make it worse, this year's race is generally agreed to be a dull one, as critical favorites and crossover hits like Senna and The Interrupters and Tabloid were all deemed ineligible. So here are the things I do know: Project Nim, the monkey doc, is the front-runner, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory apparently has a large following, and this branch will probably be much more susceptible to Pina than the foreign-language category will be. The rest of the predictions I'm just going to make up.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Project Nim
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Hell and Back Again
We Were Here
Alternates: Buck, Undefeated

Well, that does it for today. I'll return tomorrow with predictions for directing and screenplays! In the meantime, any movies you're rooting for? Actually, I suppose the more pertinent question is how many of the possible best picture nominees have you actually seen?