Oscar Nominations: When Life Gives You Lemons, You Just Have Lemons

Well...huh. I find myself in a somewhat similar position to last year. After having spent the whole predictions phase arguing that the nominations would be a sweeping verdict on the Academy's identity, the nominations showed a writhing and infinitely sided megolith--the kind of eldritch awards body horror that sprang, fully formed, from Louis B. Mayer and David O. Selznick's massive and probably creepy offices. This morning is no different: there's plenty of 'new' Academy striving to find a different voice, and there's plenty of 'old' Academy, dictated by septuagenarians who see five movies a year, and only under duress. And rather than being one or the other, the Academy keeps managing to be both simultaneously, and honestly it's kind of messing with my conception of reality. So let's take a closer look and find the seams where the Academy ruptures this dimension and pushes us all howling into a darker and more fantastic world than our own! There are some fantastic categories, some all-time worst categories, and everything in between.

Note: I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted, so you can judge me accordingly. Spoiler alert--I did not thrive.


Picture
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite*
Green Book*
Roma*
A Star is Born*
Vice*

Rather than focusing on the bad (Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Green Book would all historically, for-the-record-books terrible nominees on their own, and somehow we got all three of them!), let's look at the good: Roma and The Favourite are both masterpieces, BlacKkKlansman is Spike Lee's first ever Oscar success (which is ridiculous), Black Panther getting nominated is a big cultural moment, a massive moment of validation for comic fans, Marvel, and calls for representation (as well as for action movies in general--other than Mad Max, when is the last time a pure action/adventure movie got in? The Original Star Wars?), and A Star is Born is super too. Are five great nominees enough to offset three horrendous ones? Ask me again after we know who wins. Also, fun fact: according to Twitter, the average gross of these films is over $180 million, so all the people who lament that Oscars only honor movies they haven't seen clearly need to just see more movies. (Sure, Black Panther being in the top three highest grossing films of all time helps, but A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody are also over $200 million.)
Note: I won't call this category as 100% for me, since I predicted nine nominees instead of eight, and would have included If Beale Street Could Talk instead of Black Panther had I chosen nine.
Early Winner Prediction: Roma (though this is super up in the air now, which is really exciting.)

Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma*
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite*
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman*
Adam McKay-Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski-Cold War

Adam McKay really is the turd in this particular punch bowl (seriously, who likes Vice this much? How did this happen?), but let's look at the positive: seeing Lee, Lanthimos, and Pawlikowski all get their first nominations at once is a wonderful thing (another seriously: how is this Spike Lee's first director nod?). Also worth noting that this is only the second time in Academy history that two foreign language films have been nominated in this category (the first being in Ingmar Bergman and Lina Wertmüller in 1976), which is groovy. Even groovier is that it's almost a guarantee that Cuaron takes this, which will make him the first director of a foreign language film ever to do so.
Early winner prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Actress
Yalitza Aparicio-Roma
Glenn Close-The Wife*
Olivia Colman-The Favourite*
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born*
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*

A fairly lovely list, though I will be the first to admit that I don't understand any of the accolades that Lady Gaga's been getting (great singer, sure, but great performance? ehh). Looking forward to the Close/Colman/Gaga celebrity cage match that's about to ensue.
Early winner prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife

Actor
Christian Bale-Vice*
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born*
Willem Dafoe-At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody*
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book*

Shocking no one, the men's categories are, as always, a bit duller and upsetting than the women's. As a Rami Malek superfan (I've literally got a print and a button with his face on it), it pains me to say it, but is his inclusion here the worst part of the whole morning? Definitely possible. Not enthused by Mortensen or Bale, and even less enthused that now I have to try and see At Eternity's Gate. At least B-Coops can wash away the pain of his best director snub with the sweet sweet balm of knowing that he deserves to win this in a walk.
Early winner prediction: Christian Bale, Vice (or, to paraphrase Nietzsche, God is dead, we killed him)

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams-Vice
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk*
Emma Stone-The Favourite*
Marina de Tavira-Roma
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite*

I said yesterday that this category was primed for chaos, and I wasn't wrong.The Marina de Tavira nomination is massively surprising, and shows just how strong Roma is going into the next phase (though, silly note, I'm the slightest bit she's nominated, only for the very stupid reason that the Favourite women have been together alphabetically the whole season, and this list is less aesthetically pleasing now). I knew not predicting Amy Adams was silliness, but I let my heart be my guide, which hear means I tried to throw Vice in the toilet where it belongs.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Green Book*
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman*
Sam Elliott-Green Book*
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
Sam Rockwell-Vice*

Oof. This is a *lot* to have to look at once, and is maybe the worst category of the morning (give or take one more, which we'll address presently). Granted, I'm on record as being one of the lonely few who a) thinks Sam Elliott is kind of ridiculous in A Star is Born, and b) thinks Ali is giving the worst performance in Green Book, so this category was always going to be a little bit dicey for me. But then throw in Sam Rockwell's barely there Bush impersonation? Someone come over here and hit me with a car. At least we've got Grant's career-best work to carry us forward (and won't it be fun to watch him lose to one of the men we just talked about!).
Early winner prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Original Screenplay
The Favourite*
First Reformed*
Green Book*
Roma*
Vice*

Thrilled to see First Reformed make it, gutted to see Eighth Grade miss, and prepared to straight-up fist-fight anyone who thinks that Green Book or Vice is better written than either of those.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite

Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman*
Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
A Star is Born*

Hello Buster Scruggs! The Academy decided to love you today, though I'd be hard-pressed to figure out why. When is the last time an anthology-style film like this was nominated for writing? I don't know my Oscar history quite well enough for that (at least not off the top of my head), but I'd guess that it's been a good half-century. Meanwhile, I'm still elated for everything related to Can You Ever Forgive Me? What a beautiful and bracing movie that is, and what a shame that we're not talking about it more.
Early winner prediction: BlacKkKlansman

Production Design
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
First Man*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Roma

Pour out a single, sad drink for First Man, and then do like Damien Chazelle and throw a cymbal at someone. First Man becomes Chazelle's least-nominated film in his career (though, as his only other two movies are La La Land and Whiplash, he's set a pretty high bar for himself in that regard). Roma popping up here also speaks to its overall strength. Also, on a groovy note, Hannah Beachler (for Black Panther) because the first ever black designer to be nominated in this category. One  major flaw in the #oscarssowhite discussion is that it almost universally limited the discussion to the acting categories while involving the systematic hurdles and difficulties faced by people of color in the below-the-line categories. Good on the Black Panther train for smashing some of that.
Early winner prediction: Black Panther

Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Mary Queen of Scots*

Hello again, Buster Scruggs! Who could say no to your fringe jackets and chaps? Generally, this category is super: the in-the-wheelhouse work (aka the royalty trappings of The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots) is innovative and character-defining, and the fantastic-leaning movies (Mary Poppins and Black Panther) are each eye-popping sartorial successes in their own right.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite

Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War*
Christopher Robin*
First Man*
Ready Player One*
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Surprised but not surprised to see Black Panther miss here--sure, it's a huge movie, but would any of us argue that its special effects are its strongest element? Also surprised/not surprised to see Christopher Robin here (though now I've got to watch it, which is balls). And a surprised/not surprised hat trick for Solo, which I was predicting until the last possible moment and then threw away in a fit of whimsy.
Early winner prediction: First Man

Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots*
Vice*

Border's going to be a huge barrier for me trying to see all the nominees before the show, but from what I hear, I should be happy that it was included. Mostly I'm annoyed this nominee set means that Vice wins this in a walk, and even more so that Suspiria's painful and spectacular work was passed over here, because all the world is just idiots, idiots all the way down.
Early winner prediction: Vice

Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite
Green Book*
Vice*

Oh hey, remember earlier when I wanted to talk about the worst category of the morning? We might just be here. Granted, I'm more convinced by Bohemian Rhapsody's editing than most (I agree that it's messy, but this movie was literally made in the editing bay--if you didn't follow all the production controversies, the director basically abandoned the project and the editor had to just make a movie with the footage they had), but still, this is a garbage group. I'd love for this to mean that BlacKkKlansman's aggressive montaging gets an Oscar for it's troubles, but that's not the kind of world we have. Incidentally, this category, which is almost always associated with best picture, makes predicting the winner of the big prize particularly difficult. Seeming frontrunner Roma isn't nominated here, but other seeming frontrunners Green Book and A Star is Born aren't nominated for director, which is just as big a problem (if not bigger). Does this mean Klansman or The Favourite or even Vice (heaven save us) win, or do one of the others soldier through?
Early winner prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody

Cinematography
Cold War*
The Favourite*
Never Look Away
Roma*
A Star is Born*

Never Look Away, Germany's entry for best foreign language film this year, joins the top-tier ranks of nominations that made prognosticators everywhere rub their eyes and say 'I'm sorry, what just happened?' (though Alone Yet Not Alone's best original song nomination--later revealed to be cheating and then subsequently disqualified!--still takes the cake in that regard). Still, a spectacular lineup.
Early winner prediction: Roma

Original Score
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

Sure, why not? BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, and Beale Street are all great, Isle of Dogs was unavoidable, I guess, and Mary Poppins has music.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk

Sound Mixing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
First Man*
Roma
A Star is Born*

A fairly expected group--Roma's inclusion is one I saw coming, but dug my heels in against for no particular reason--if a somewhat uninspiring one.
Early winner prediction: A Star is Born

Sound Editing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man*
A Quiet Place
Roma

Much more shocking as far as sound categories go. BoRhap and Roma both getting in here shows the Academy's love, and at least A Quiet Place can take its solitary consolation nod here.
Early winner prediction: First Man

Original Song
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"-The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"All the Stars"-Black Panther*
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns*
"I'll Fight"-RBG*
"Shallow"-A Star is Born*

A fairly defensible lineup from one of the most disaster-prone categories. Part of me wants to make more Buster Scruggs jokes, but I've also been singing that song in my head since I watched it, so I suppose it wins this round. All the Stars is great, the Mary Poppins song is fine enough, and the Academy would never pass up the chance to nominate Diane Warren's latest primal shriek at the moon/Oscar gods, so we'll take the RBG song and we'll like it. And, of course, Shallow had this win in the bag since the trailer premiered (which, incidentally, makes Lady Gaga the first woman ever nominated for Actress and Original Song in the same year). It feels as though I sang Shallow in the womb. Shallow exists in a place beyond time. In a quiet room, bathed in soft light, Lady Gaga howls the 'aaaaa-eee-aaaa--ya-ya' part of the song while Gritty (yes, that Gritty) watches quietly.
Early winner prediction: "Shallow"-A Star is Born

Animated Film
Incredibles 2*
Isle of Dogs*
Mirai*
Ralph Breaks the Internet*
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*

Hooray for Spider-Man! Here's hoping that it's got as good a chance of winning as I think it does. Otherwise, I don't have much to say here--I haven't seen two of the other nominees, and the ones I have seen (Incredibles and Isle of Dogs) were both fine, if uninspiring.
Early winner prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Foreign Language Film
Capernaum-Lebanon*
Cold War-Poland*
Never Look Away-Germany
Roma-Mexico*
Shoplifters-Japan*

If Roma weren't here, one imagines that this would be one heck of a competition, as both Cold War and Never Look Away have significant Academy support, and Shoplifters is a huge critical hit, but Roma *is* here--and is tied with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon for the all-time most nominations for a foreign language film--so this category can only go one way.
Early winner prediction: Roma

Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap*
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG*

What a stellar list this is. I'll admit that I haven't seen a few of these (it's historically difficult to get me motivated to watch documentaries), but what I have seen and what I've heard suggests one of the best lineups in years. Plus, Minding the Gap's nomination is the only one this morning that made me punch my fist and yell and make my neighbors wonder how I spend my mornings. This is absolutely my favorite nomination of the day, and if you haven't seen the movie yet, go watch it (it's streaming on Hulu).


Note: of the main nominees (i.e. not animated, foreign language. or documentary, because most of those don't open near me), I haven't seen Cold War, At Eternity's Gate, The Wife, Border, Never Look Away, and RBG, and of those, I've got no way to access Border or Never Look Away, which means that, unless something changes in the next month, I might have to give up already on trying to see everything before Oscar night.

Predictions-wise, I certainly could have done worse. I only completely nailed Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and Animated Film, but I also only totally screwed up Sound Editing and Original Song.

For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:

1. Roma-10
2. The Favourite-10
3. Vice-8
4. A Star is Born-8
5. Black Panther-7
6. BlacKkKlansman-6
7. Green Book-5
8. Bohemian Rhapsody-5
9. Mary Poppins Returns-4
10. First Man-4

And here's a list of notable movies that didn't get any nominations at all: Beautiful Boy, Leave No Trace, Burning, Hereditary, Widows, Destroyer, Ben is Back, Boy Erased, The Hate U Give, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, The Death of Stalin, Aquaman, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom, Mission: Impossible--Fallout, Suspiria, among others

You win some, you lose some.

How do you react? Good nominations? Bad nominations? What made you fist pump at 7.30 in the morning? What made you throw your breakfast across the room? These aren't the Christmas presents we asked for, but we can do our best with them anyhow.

Oscar Predictions 2018: And They Were Never Lovely Again

                                                                                                                            source
In case poor Susie isn't being clear, this Oscar nomination eve sees me girding my proverbial loins--and you might want to as well. It's been a corker of a movie year all right; anarchy and controversy and slow creeping horror all congealing to provide a fitting coda for the swirling and implacable maelstrom of 2018. And if you thought you were done, if you thought that garbage year had demanded its pound(s) of flesh from you and had laid down to die in the annals of history, then think again, because Vice, Green Book, and Bohemian Rhapsody are all going to be best picture nominees, and no one seems to be able to stop it. Susie Bannion may have dealt with murderous witches, the Holocaust, and DDR fashion choices, but she's still got to face losing all her well-deserved nominations to some fake teeth and 2 Driving 2 Daisy. So get those loins girded!

Maybe it's because it's my 13th year of Oscar predictions and I'm feeling superstitious, or maybe it's because I'm writing this to Nicholas Brittell's messy, keening score for Vice (far and away the best part of an otherwise hideous movie), but tomorrow morning seems poised to ring in the triumphant return of the Academy of years past. As I mentioned in this space last year, the past half-decade of Academy in-house politics has been about trying to decide who the Academy wants to be--its diversity initiative (during which roughly 30% of the Academy's voting membership has been added, with a particular eye cast toward diverse voices and young/up-and-coming film professionals). Last year I wrote that 2017 seemed like a tipping point--a tense caesura that could see the Oscars embracing its own attempts to drag its members into the 21st century or falling back with a smile on its face. And on the face of it, the Oscars seemed to choose forward, with last year's slate (Lady Bird! Get Out! Call Me By Your Name! Phantom Thread!) hinting toward a future with an ever broader definition of constitutes an 'Oscar movie.'

And then this year happened.

Maybe I'm being too apocalyptic (considering we've yet to see the nominations), but if last year was a tipping point, this year is going to test the strength of that decision to its very core. So let's do some predictive triage!

(note: I've now totally committed to my new predictions format, in which I do it all in one breathless post. Long-time readers (who do exist--Привет москва!) may remember five-day extravaganzae of years past, but this method is just more streamlined) (...except for the part where it's still punishingly, unforgivably long).

(note note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood.)

Best Picture
Green Book
A Star is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
Alternate: First Man

The trick here isn't what gets nominated, but how many. Since 2011, the Academy has used a preferential ballot to determine the number of nominees (minimum 5, maximum 10), and every year but two since then has given us nine nominees. And if we're having nine nominees, they will almost certainly come from these 10 films (barring a massive surprise like A Quiet Place, Leave No Trace or Mary Poppins Returns). But how many? I feel confident that the top 5 are unshakable, but any of the next five might miss for any of the others. I'd like to be optimistic and think that Vice or BoRhap might miraculously bow out (see above, re: long, dramatic monologuing), but I'd think that Beale Street and Black Panther on thinner ice. Beale Street has been ignored by too many precursors and carries Moonlight's reputation like an albatross around its neck. Meanwhile, I've no idea why most prognosticators feel like Black Panther is a lock--I'm keeping it in my predictions for now, but if it falls short tomorrow, remember how you read it here first that it requires a very different Academy indeed to put Black Panther up for the top prize--and can that same Academy also do Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody at the same time?

Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman
Peter Farrelly-Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite
Alternate: Adam McKay-Vice

Good lord does my heart yearn for Lanthimos (maybe my favorite working director?) to get in here, and I'm (vaguely) confident that he will. The others seem solid enough (my heart wants to call for a Farrelly snub, but my brain thinks that Lee and Cooper are more vulnerable). Surprises may come from Damien Chazelle (First Man--a film whose Oscar chances are completely befuddling), or even Barry Jenkins/Beale Street or Ryan Coogler/Black Panther if either of those films' chances are less dire than I tend to think.

Actor
Christian Bale-Vice
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book
Ethan Hawke-First Reformed
Alternate: John David Washington-BlacKkKlansman

Am I too bullish on my Ethan Hawke pick? Maybe, but I honestly don't see it going any other way. And all the other surprises (Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man, Ben Foster/Leave No Trace) seem too far-fetched to worry about.

Actress
Glenn Close-The Wife
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born
Olivia Colman-The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Toni Collette-Hereditary
Alternate: Yalitza Aparicio-Roma

The first category to really give me significant pause. The first four are set in stone, and the final slot is a complete tossup. I've done the very silly thing and voted with my heart with Collette, who is profoundly deserving but probably long shot at best. Aparicio is a safer bet, as is Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns or Viola Davis/Widows. Alternately, if you want to be even wackier,  I almost called an out-of-nowhere nom for Julia Roberts in Ben is Back, and wouldn't that be fun?

Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Green Book
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott-A Star is Born
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman
Timothée Chalamet-Beautiful Boy
Alternate: Michael B. Jordan-Black Panther

I don't feel confident about *any* of these picks other than Ali and Grant, but everything else seems even less plausible. If I'm afraid of Black Panther missing best picture, can I really put it into any other major races? Do we really think that Sam Rockwell's ten-minute long Bush impersonation in Vice is really grabbing enough eyeballs? Do we really think that critically loved long shots like Steven Yeun in Burning or Allessandro Nivola in Disobedience have a shot? I suppose my answer to all of these questions is a big ol' no. Then again, if you asked me if I really thought Timmy C., Sam Elliott, and Driver would all be nominated, I'd also probably say no, so here we are.

Supporting Actress
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone-The Favourite
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite
Claire Foy-First Man
Emily Blunt-A Quiet Place
Alternate: Amy Adams-Vice

I'm probably doing a very silly thing by predicting an Amy Adams miss, but this is a category rife with silly things. King, the purported frontrunner, has missed a few important precursors and could easily miss. Stone and Weisz could cancel each other out, or move up to the Lead Actress race. And do people still love First Man and A Quiet Place at all? Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) and Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) could also sneak in (or Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased, for that matter). Basically, this category is absolute chaos, so I'ma get in the spirit and predict a little chaos.

Original Screenplay
The Favourite
Roma
Green Book
Vice
First Reformed
Alternate: Eighth Grade

It is my hope of hopes that either Green Book or Vice (or both!) sits this one out to make room for both First Reformed and Eighth Grade, but the Oscar gods are unjust, which means the best movies have to fight for the last slot, and the garbage leaks in without a fight. Look for A Quiet Place or Bohemian Rhapsody to sneak in here if either have more support than I'm expecting, and look to Cold War for a classy surprise.

Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
A Star is Born
Leave No Trace
Alternate: The Death of Stalin

I've seen a few pundits predicting Black Panther and/or Crazy Rich Asians making good here, but I'll believe it when I see it (again, I can't very well predict Black Panther to bag other major categories if I'm worried for its best picture chances). I'm not super confident on my Leave No Trace pick, but Debra Granik movies (of Winter's Bone fame) are good at sneaking in at the last second with more support than expected, so here we are.

Production Design
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Black Panther
First Man
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Alternate: Roma

I feel silly for leaving Roma off, but it's equally silly to bet against the Harry Potter series in this category. In the worst possible timeline, Welcome to Marwen, Green Book, and Bohemian Rhapsody will all muscle in here.

Costume Design
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Crazy Rich Asians

Too much of the crafts categories are going to be defined by how much the Academy loves Bohemian Rhapsody--look for it to strike first blood here. I'd also love to see Crazy Rich Asians land here, where it has its best (only?) shot, but I couldn't bring myself to predict it happen. Look to Fantastic Beasts, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, or Colette for curveballs.

Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Christopher Robin
Alternate: First Man

I'm sure I'm way off base calling for 4/5 slots to be filled by Disney (and at the expense of First Man) but that's the exciting thing about hegemonic corporate monopolies--they get the shiny gold trophies! Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other movies still in the running are Solo, Welcome to Marwen, Ant-Man and the Wasp, and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Vice
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate: Bohemian Rhapsody

Always a wild and wacky category to try and pin down, so I will throw lots of fat suits and false teeth at the board while weeping for jaw-dropping (or jaw-crushing) makeup effects in Suspiria. Note: like visual effects, this has been previously narrowed down to seven films. The other three still in contention are the aforementioned Suspiria, Border, and Stan and Ollie.

Film Editing
A Star is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Green Book

Is it silliness to leave out best picture frontrunner Green Book out of this category (which is traditionally tied to winning best picture), or to leave out Adam McKay's signature kitchen sink anarchic garbage from Vice? Probably, but I'm nothing if not silly.

Cinematography
Roma
First Man
A Star is Born
Cold War
The Favourite
Alternate: If Beale Street Could Talk

Honestly, it would be shocking for anything other than these six to be nominated, though if Bohemian Rhapsody or Black Panther (or the tapioca stylings of Green Book, god forbid) feel like storming any barns tomorrow morning, here'd be the place to do it.

Original Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
Alternate: Isle of Dogs

I imagine that the only reason I've predicted Vice here is because I'm still listening to the soundtrack and it sounds awesome and feels right. Still, I'd bet someone else's left nut that Isle of Dogs or Mary Poppins Returns takes that slot instead. And fingers crossed for a wacky surprise like Annihilation or The Death of Stalin!

Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Quiet Place
Alternate: Roma

Another day, another instance of me wondering why I didn't predict Roma here. Who knows? The Academy is fickle. Maybe they shower Roma with love, maybe we're all wrong and Solo and Mission Impossible triumph here instead. The world is an imperfect place.

Sound Editing
First Man
Black Panther
Solo
Incredibles 2
Ready Player One
Alternate: A Quiet Place

So here's the thing--I've been predicting these five for months and months, and I don't necessarily think they're right, but I'm too wedded to them now to stop. Send help! Alternately, rather than sending help, predict A Quiet Place or Roma or A Star is Born or Bohemian Rhapsody and then be real smug about your victory.

Original Song
"Shallow"-A Star is Born
"All the Stars"-Black Panther
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Girl in the Movies"-Dumplin'
"I'll Fight"-RBG
Alternate: "Trip a Little Light Fantastic"-Mary Poppins Returns

This is definitely the safe list, but I've no opinions passionate enough to make me be unsafe. Maybe "Revelation" (Boy Erased's funereal love dirge) or "We Won't Move"/The Hate U Give makes it? Shame that the lovely "Suspirum" from Suspiria won't. ...Shame, really, that I haven't been talking about Suspiria this whole time. What a world! No room for beautiful wickedness.

Animated Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
Alternate: Smallfoot

Always a tough category to predict, as it's heavily reliant on both little international movies that open nowhere near me and massive popcorn fare that I tend to not do in theaters. This list looks solid though.

Foreign Language Film
Roma-Mexico
Cold War-Poland
Shoplifters-Japan
Capernaum-Lebanon
Birds of Passage-Colombia
Alternate: Burning-South Korea

A bit silly of me to predict a second, out-of-nowhere for Colombia and director Ciro Guerra, particularly when friendly and safe(ish) Euro-centric titles like Germany's Never Look Away and Denmark's The Guilty are right there, but hey. It is, as they say, my party, and my party includes South American nightmare fuel.

Documentary Feature
Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Minding the Gap
The Distant Barking of Dogs
Alternate: Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Year in and year out, the hardest category for me to get excited about--but I' m soldiering through, because I'm a giver. Out on a bit of a limb here, predicting that the Academy embraces both the skateboarding-cum-domestic abuse doc Minding the Gap and wacky Ukrainian child war romp The Distant Barking of Dogs over likelier candidates like Hale County or docu-blockbuster Free Solo.


For those of you playing along, here are the movies I'm predicting for the most nominations:

A Star is Born-10
The Favourite-9
Black Panther-9
First Man-7
BlacKkKlansman-6
Roma-6

Incidentally, I know it's a little silly to devote so much space to Oscar predictions when I haven't sounded off on my own preferences yet--and those posts, each longer and more horrifying than the last, are definitely in the pipeline. I've still got quite a few titles that I'd love to work through in the next two-ish weeks. In the meantime, if I could guarantee one nomination tomorrow, it'd be Suspiria for anything (makeup and original song are the only categories in which it has a chance, but I'd love to see it pop up elsewhere too), and if I could take away one nomination....where to begin? Bohemian Rhapsody or Vice for best picture? Rami Malek for actor? Bohemian Rhapsody for pretty much any craft category other than film editing? Vice and Green Book in screenplay? There's a wealth of trash to be had, if my predictions are anywhere near correct. Picking just one nomination to prevent feels like swimming upstream against a mudslide.

Come tomorrow morning, all of these predictions will be moot, and you can bet I'll be back in this space tomorrow to cheer and/or lick my cinematic wounds. Until then--what are you hoping for? Dreading? Where did I go wrong? Or, better question, where did the Academy?