Well...huh. I find myself in a somewhat similar position to last year. After having spent the whole predictions phase arguing that the nominations would be a sweeping verdict on the Academy's identity, the nominations showed a writhing and infinitely sided megolith--the kind of eldritch awards body horror that sprang, fully formed, from Louis B. Mayer and David O. Selznick's massive and probably creepy offices. This morning is no different: there's plenty of 'new' Academy striving to find a different voice, and there's plenty of 'old' Academy, dictated by septuagenarians who see five movies a year, and only under duress. And rather than being one or the other, the Academy keeps managing to be both simultaneously, and honestly it's kind of messing with my conception of reality. So let's take a closer look and find the seams where the Academy ruptures this dimension and pushes us all howling into a darker and more fantastic world than our own! There are some fantastic categories, some all-time worst categories, and everything in between.
Note: I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted, so you can judge me accordingly. Spoiler alert--I did not thrive.
Picture
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite*
Green Book*
Roma*
A Star is Born*
Vice*
Rather than focusing on the bad (Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Green Book would all historically, for-the-record-books terrible nominees on their own, and somehow we got all three of them!), let's look at the good: Roma and The Favourite are both masterpieces, BlacKkKlansman is Spike Lee's first ever Oscar success (which is ridiculous), Black Panther getting nominated is a big cultural moment, a massive moment of validation for comic fans, Marvel, and calls for representation (as well as for action movies in general--other than Mad Max, when is the last time a pure action/adventure movie got in? The Original Star Wars?), and A Star is Born is super too. Are five great nominees enough to offset three horrendous ones? Ask me again after we know who wins. Also, fun fact: according to Twitter, the average gross of these films is over $180 million, so all the people who lament that Oscars only honor movies they haven't seen clearly need to just see more movies. (Sure, Black Panther being in the top three highest grossing films of all time helps, but A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody are also over $200 million.)
Note: I won't call this category as 100% for me, since I predicted nine nominees instead of eight, and would have included If Beale Street Could Talk instead of Black Panther had I chosen nine.
Early Winner Prediction: Roma (though this is super up in the air now, which is really exciting.)
Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma*
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite*
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman*
Adam McKay-Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski-Cold War
Adam McKay really is the turd in this particular punch bowl (seriously, who likes Vice this much? How did this happen?), but let's look at the positive: seeing Lee, Lanthimos, and Pawlikowski all get their first nominations at once is a wonderful thing (another seriously: how is this Spike Lee's first director nod?). Also worth noting that this is only the second time in Academy history that two foreign language films have been nominated in this category (the first being in Ingmar Bergman and Lina Wertmüller in 1976), which is groovy. Even groovier is that it's almost a guarantee that Cuaron takes this, which will make him the first director of a foreign language film ever to do so.
Early winner prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Actress
Yalitza Aparicio-Roma
Glenn Close-The Wife*
Olivia Colman-The Favourite*
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born*
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
A fairly lovely list, though I will be the first to admit that I don't understand any of the accolades that Lady Gaga's been getting (great singer, sure, but great performance? ehh). Looking forward to the Close/Colman/Gaga celebrity cage match that's about to ensue.
Early winner prediction: Glenn Close, The Wife
Actor
Christian Bale-Vice*
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born*
Willem Dafoe-At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody*
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book*
Shocking no one, the men's categories are, as always, a bit duller and upsetting than the women's. As a Rami Malek superfan (I've literally got a print and a button with his face on it), it pains me to say it, but is his inclusion here the worst part of the whole morning? Definitely possible. Not enthused by Mortensen or Bale, and even less enthused that now I have to try and see At Eternity's Gate. At least B-Coops can wash away the pain of his best director snub with the sweet sweet balm of knowing that he deserves to win this in a walk.
Early winner prediction: Christian Bale, Vice (or, to paraphrase Nietzsche, God is dead, we killed him)
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams-Vice
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk*
Emma Stone-The Favourite*
Marina de Tavira-Roma
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite*
I said yesterday that this category was primed for chaos, and I wasn't wrong.The Marina de Tavira nomination is massively surprising, and shows just how strong Roma is going into the next phase (though, silly note, I'm the slightest bit she's nominated, only for the very stupid reason that the Favourite women have been together alphabetically the whole season, and this list is less aesthetically pleasing now). I knew not predicting Amy Adams was silliness, but I let my heart be my guide, which hear means I tried to throw Vice in the toilet where it belongs.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Green Book*
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman*
Sam Elliott-Green Book*
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
Sam Rockwell-Vice*
Oof. This is a *lot* to have to look at once, and is maybe the worst category of the morning (give or take one more, which we'll address presently). Granted, I'm on record as being one of the lonely few who a) thinks Sam Elliott is kind of ridiculous in A Star is Born, and b) thinks Ali is giving the worst performance in Green Book, so this category was always going to be a little bit dicey for me. But then throw in Sam Rockwell's barely there Bush impersonation? Someone come over here and hit me with a car. At least we've got Grant's career-best work to carry us forward (and won't it be fun to watch him lose to one of the men we just talked about!).
Early winner prediction: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Original Screenplay
The Favourite*
First Reformed*
Green Book*
Roma*
Vice*
Thrilled to see First Reformed make it, gutted to see Eighth Grade miss, and prepared to straight-up fist-fight anyone who thinks that Green Book or Vice is better written than either of those.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite
Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman*
Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
A Star is Born*
Hello Buster Scruggs! The Academy decided to love you today, though I'd be hard-pressed to figure out why. When is the last time an anthology-style film like this was nominated for writing? I don't know my Oscar history quite well enough for that (at least not off the top of my head), but I'd guess that it's been a good half-century. Meanwhile, I'm still elated for everything related to Can You Ever Forgive Me? What a beautiful and bracing movie that is, and what a shame that we're not talking about it more.
Early winner prediction: BlacKkKlansman
Production Design
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
First Man*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Roma
Pour out a single, sad drink for First Man, and then do like Damien Chazelle and throw a cymbal at someone. First Man becomes Chazelle's least-nominated film in his career (though, as his only other two movies are La La Land and Whiplash, he's set a pretty high bar for himself in that regard). Roma popping up here also speaks to its overall strength. Also, on a groovy note, Hannah Beachler (for Black Panther) because the first ever black designer to be nominated in this category. One major flaw in the #oscarssowhite discussion is that it almost universally limited the discussion to the acting categories while involving the systematic hurdles and difficulties faced by people of color in the below-the-line categories. Good on the Black Panther train for smashing some of that.
Early winner prediction: Black Panther
Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther*
The Favourite*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Mary Queen of Scots*
Hello again, Buster Scruggs! Who could say no to your fringe jackets and chaps? Generally, this category is super: the in-the-wheelhouse work (aka the royalty trappings of The Favourite and Mary Queen of Scots) is innovative and character-defining, and the fantastic-leaning movies (Mary Poppins and Black Panther) are each eye-popping sartorial successes in their own right.
Early winner prediction: The Favourite
Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War*
Christopher Robin*
First Man*
Ready Player One*
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Surprised but not surprised to see Black Panther miss here--sure, it's a huge movie, but would any of us argue that its special effects are its strongest element? Also surprised/not surprised to see Christopher Robin here (though now I've got to watch it, which is balls). And a surprised/not surprised hat trick for Solo, which I was predicting until the last possible moment and then threw away in a fit of whimsy.
Early winner prediction: First Man
Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots*
Vice*
Border's going to be a huge barrier for me trying to see all the nominees before the show, but from what I hear, I should be happy that it was included. Mostly I'm annoyed this nominee set means that Vice wins this in a walk, and even more so that Suspiria's painful and spectacular work was passed over here, because all the world is just idiots, idiots all the way down.
Early winner prediction: Vice
Film Editing
BlacKkKlansman*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite
Green Book*
Vice*
Oh hey, remember earlier when I wanted to talk about the worst category of the morning? We might just be here. Granted, I'm more convinced by Bohemian Rhapsody's editing than most (I agree that it's messy, but this movie was literally made in the editing bay--if you didn't follow all the production controversies, the director basically abandoned the project and the editor had to just make a movie with the footage they had), but still, this is a garbage group. I'd love for this to mean that BlacKkKlansman's aggressive montaging gets an Oscar for it's troubles, but that's not the kind of world we have. Incidentally, this category, which is almost always associated with best picture, makes predicting the winner of the big prize particularly difficult. Seeming frontrunner Roma isn't nominated here, but other seeming frontrunners Green Book and A Star is Born aren't nominated for director, which is just as big a problem (if not bigger). Does this mean Klansman or The Favourite or even Vice (heaven save us) win, or do one of the others soldier through?
Early winner prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Cinematography
Cold War*
The Favourite*
Never Look Away
Roma*
A Star is Born*
Never Look Away, Germany's entry for best foreign language film this year, joins the top-tier ranks of nominations that made prognosticators everywhere rub their eyes and say 'I'm sorry, what just happened?' (though Alone Yet Not Alone's best original song nomination--later revealed to be cheating and then subsequently disqualified!--still takes the cake in that regard). Still, a spectacular lineup.
Early winner prediction: Roma
Original Score
BlacKkKlansman*
Black Panther*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Sure, why not? BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, and Beale Street are all great, Isle of Dogs was unavoidable, I guess, and Mary Poppins has music.
Early winner prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
Sound Mixing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody*
First Man*
Roma
A Star is Born*
A fairly expected group--Roma's inclusion is one I saw coming, but dug my heels in against for no particular reason--if a somewhat uninspiring one.
Early winner prediction: A Star is Born
Sound Editing
Black Panther*
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man*
A Quiet Place
Roma
Much more shocking as far as sound categories go. BoRhap and Roma both getting in here shows the Academy's love, and at least A Quiet Place can take its solitary consolation nod here.
Early winner prediction: First Man
Original Song
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings"-The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"All the Stars"-Black Panther*
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns*
"I'll Fight"-RBG*
"Shallow"-A Star is Born*
A fairly defensible lineup from one of the most disaster-prone categories. Part of me wants to make more Buster Scruggs jokes, but I've also been singing that song in my head since I watched it, so I suppose it wins this round. All the Stars is great, the Mary Poppins song is fine enough, and the Academy would never pass up the chance to nominate Diane Warren's latest primal shriek at the moon/Oscar gods, so we'll take the RBG song and we'll like it. And, of course, Shallow had this win in the bag since the trailer premiered (which, incidentally, makes Lady Gaga the first woman ever nominated for Actress and Original Song in the same year). It feels as though I sang Shallow in the womb. Shallow exists in a place beyond time. In a quiet room, bathed in soft light, Lady Gaga howls the 'aaaaa-eee-aaaa--ya-ya' part of the song while Gritty (yes, that Gritty) watches quietly.
Early winner prediction: "Shallow"-A Star is Born
Animated Film
Incredibles 2*
Isle of Dogs*
Mirai*
Ralph Breaks the Internet*
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*
Hooray for Spider-Man! Here's hoping that it's got as good a chance of winning as I think it does. Otherwise, I don't have much to say here--I haven't seen two of the other nominees, and the ones I have seen (Incredibles and Isle of Dogs) were both fine, if uninspiring.
Early winner prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Foreign Language Film
Capernaum-Lebanon*
Cold War-Poland*
Never Look Away-Germany
Roma-Mexico*
Shoplifters-Japan*
If Roma weren't here, one imagines that this would be one heck of a competition, as both Cold War and Never Look Away have significant Academy support, and Shoplifters is a huge critical hit, but Roma *is* here--and is tied with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon for the all-time most nominations for a foreign language film--so this category can only go one way.
Early winner prediction: Roma
Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap*
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG*
What a stellar list this is. I'll admit that I haven't seen a few of these (it's historically difficult to get me motivated to watch documentaries), but what I have seen and what I've heard suggests one of the best lineups in years. Plus, Minding the Gap's nomination is the only one this morning that made me punch my fist and yell and make my neighbors wonder how I spend my mornings. This is absolutely my favorite nomination of the day, and if you haven't seen the movie yet, go watch it (it's streaming on Hulu).
Note: of the main nominees (i.e. not animated, foreign language. or documentary, because most of those don't open near me), I haven't seen Cold War, At Eternity's Gate, The Wife, Border, Never Look Away, and RBG, and of those, I've got no way to access Border or Never Look Away, which means that, unless something changes in the next month, I might have to give up already on trying to see everything before Oscar night.
Predictions-wise, I certainly could have done worse. I only completely nailed Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and Animated Film, but I also only totally screwed up Sound Editing and Original Song.
For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:
1. Roma-10
2. The Favourite-10
3. Vice-8
4. A Star is Born-8
5. Black Panther-7
6. BlacKkKlansman-6
7. Green Book-5
8. Bohemian Rhapsody-5
9. Mary Poppins Returns-4
10. First Man-4
And here's a list of notable movies that didn't get any nominations at all: Beautiful Boy, Leave No Trace, Burning, Hereditary, Widows, Destroyer, Ben is Back, Boy Erased, The Hate U Give, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, The Death of Stalin, Aquaman, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom, Mission: Impossible--Fallout, Suspiria, among others
You win some, you lose some.
How do you react? Good nominations? Bad nominations? What made you fist pump at 7.30 in the morning? What made you throw your breakfast across the room? These aren't the Christmas presents we asked for, but we can do our best with them anyhow.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment