In case poor Susie isn't being clear, this Oscar nomination eve sees me girding my proverbial loins--and you might want to as well. It's been a corker of a movie year all right; anarchy and controversy and slow creeping horror all congealing to provide a fitting coda for the swirling and implacable maelstrom of 2018. And if you thought you were done, if you thought that garbage year had demanded its pound(s) of flesh from you and had laid down to die in the annals of history, then think again, because Vice, Green Book, and Bohemian Rhapsody are all going to be best picture nominees, and no one seems to be able to stop it. Susie Bannion may have dealt with murderous witches, the Holocaust, and DDR fashion choices, but she's still got to face losing all her well-deserved nominations to some fake teeth and 2 Driving 2 Daisy. So get those loins girded!
Maybe it's because it's my 13th year of Oscar predictions and I'm feeling superstitious, or maybe it's because I'm writing this to Nicholas Brittell's messy, keening score for Vice (far and away the best part of an otherwise hideous movie), but tomorrow morning seems poised to ring in the triumphant return of the Academy of years past. As I mentioned in this space last year, the past half-decade of Academy in-house politics has been about trying to decide who the Academy wants to be--its diversity initiative (during which roughly 30% of the Academy's voting membership has been added, with a particular eye cast toward diverse voices and young/up-and-coming film professionals). Last year I wrote that 2017 seemed like a tipping point--a tense caesura that could see the Oscars embracing its own attempts to drag its members into the 21st century or falling back with a smile on its face. And on the face of it, the Oscars seemed to choose forward, with last year's slate (Lady Bird! Get Out! Call Me By Your Name! Phantom Thread!) hinting toward a future with an ever broader definition of constitutes an 'Oscar movie.'
And then this year happened.
Maybe I'm being too apocalyptic (considering we've yet to see the nominations), but if last year was a tipping point, this year is going to test the strength of that decision to its very core. So let's do some predictive triage!
(note: I've now totally committed to my new predictions format, in which I do it all in one breathless post. Long-time readers (who do exist--Привет москва!) may remember five-day extravaganzae of years past, but this method is just more streamlined) (...except for the part where it's still punishingly, unforgivably long).
(note note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood.)
Best Picture
Green Book
A Star is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
Alternate: First Man
The trick here isn't what gets nominated, but how many. Since 2011, the Academy has used a preferential ballot to determine the number of nominees (minimum 5, maximum 10), and every year but two since then has given us nine nominees. And if we're having nine nominees, they will almost certainly come from these 10 films (barring a massive surprise like A Quiet Place, Leave No Trace or Mary Poppins Returns). But how many? I feel confident that the top 5 are unshakable, but any of the next five might miss for any of the others. I'd like to be optimistic and think that Vice or BoRhap might miraculously bow out (see above, re: long, dramatic monologuing), but I'd think that Beale Street and Black Panther on thinner ice. Beale Street has been ignored by too many precursors and carries Moonlight's reputation like an albatross around its neck. Meanwhile, I've no idea why most prognosticators feel like Black Panther is a lock--I'm keeping it in my predictions for now, but if it falls short tomorrow, remember how you read it here first that it requires a very different Academy indeed to put Black Panther up for the top prize--and can that same Academy also do Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody at the same time?
Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman
Peter Farrelly-Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite
Alternate: Adam McKay-Vice
Good lord does my heart yearn for Lanthimos (maybe my favorite working director?) to get in here, and I'm (vaguely) confident that he will. The others seem solid enough (my heart wants to call for a Farrelly snub, but my brain thinks that Lee and Cooper are more vulnerable). Surprises may come from Damien Chazelle (First Man--a film whose Oscar chances are completely befuddling), or even Barry Jenkins/Beale Street or Ryan Coogler/Black Panther if either of those films' chances are less dire than I tend to think.
Actor
Christian Bale-Vice
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book
Ethan Hawke-First Reformed
Alternate: John David Washington-BlacKkKlansman
Am I too bullish on my Ethan Hawke pick? Maybe, but I honestly don't see it going any other way. And all the other surprises (Willem Dafoe/At Eternity's Gate, Ryan Gosling/First Man, Ben Foster/Leave No Trace) seem too far-fetched to worry about.
Actress
Glenn Close-The Wife
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born
Olivia Colman-The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Toni Collette-Hereditary
Alternate: Yalitza Aparicio-Roma
The first category to really give me significant pause. The first four are set in stone, and the final slot is a complete tossup. I've done the very silly thing and voted with my heart with Collette, who is profoundly deserving but probably long shot at best. Aparicio is a safer bet, as is Emily Blunt/Mary Poppins Returns or Viola Davis/Widows. Alternately, if you want to be even wackier, I almost called an out-of-nowhere nom for Julia Roberts in Ben is Back, and wouldn't that be fun?
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Green Book
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott-A Star is Born
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman
Timothée Chalamet-Beautiful Boy
Alternate: Michael B. Jordan-Black Panther
I don't feel confident about *any* of these picks other than Ali and Grant, but everything else seems even less plausible. If I'm afraid of Black Panther missing best picture, can I really put it into any other major races? Do we really think that Sam Rockwell's ten-minute long Bush impersonation in Vice is really grabbing enough eyeballs? Do we really think that critically loved long shots like Steven Yeun in Burning or Allessandro Nivola in Disobedience have a shot? I suppose my answer to all of these questions is a big ol' no. Then again, if you asked me if I really thought Timmy C., Sam Elliott, and Driver would all be nominated, I'd also probably say no, so here we are.
Supporting Actress
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone-The Favourite
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite
Claire Foy-First Man
Emily Blunt-A Quiet Place
Alternate: Amy Adams-Vice
I'm probably doing a very silly thing by predicting an Amy Adams miss, but this is a category rife with silly things. King, the purported frontrunner, has missed a few important precursors and could easily miss. Stone and Weisz could cancel each other out, or move up to the Lead Actress race. And do people still love First Man and A Quiet Place at all? Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots) and Elizabeth Debicki (Widows) could also sneak in (or Nicole Kidman in Boy Erased, for that matter). Basically, this category is absolute chaos, so I'ma get in the spirit and predict a little chaos.
Original Screenplay
The Favourite
Roma
Green Book
Vice
First Reformed
Alternate: Eighth Grade
It is my hope of hopes that either Green Book or Vice (or both!) sits this one out to make room for both First Reformed and Eighth Grade, but the Oscar gods are unjust, which means the best movies have to fight for the last slot, and the garbage leaks in without a fight. Look for A Quiet Place or Bohemian Rhapsody to sneak in here if either have more support than I'm expecting, and look to Cold War for a classy surprise.
Adapted Screenplay
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
A Star is Born
Leave No Trace
Alternate: The Death of Stalin
I've seen a few pundits predicting Black Panther and/or Crazy Rich Asians making good here, but I'll believe it when I see it (again, I can't very well predict Black Panther to bag other major categories if I'm worried for its best picture chances). I'm not super confident on my Leave No Trace pick, but Debra Granik movies (of Winter's Bone fame) are good at sneaking in at the last second with more support than expected, so here we are.
Production Design
Mary Poppins Returns
The Favourite
Black Panther
First Man
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Alternate: Roma
I feel silly for leaving Roma off, but it's equally silly to bet against the Harry Potter series in this category. In the worst possible timeline, Welcome to Marwen, Green Book, and Bohemian Rhapsody will all muscle in here.
Costume Design
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Crazy Rich Asians
Too much of the crafts categories are going to be defined by how much the Academy loves Bohemian Rhapsody--look for it to strike first blood here. I'd also love to see Crazy Rich Asians land here, where it has its best (only?) shot, but I couldn't bring myself to predict it happen. Look to Fantastic Beasts, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, or Colette for curveballs.
Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Christopher Robin
Alternate: First Man
I'm sure I'm way off base calling for 4/5 slots to be filled by Disney (and at the expense of First Man) but that's the exciting thing about hegemonic corporate monopolies--they get the shiny gold trophies! Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other movies still in the running are Solo, Welcome to Marwen, Ant-Man and the Wasp, and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Vice
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Alternate: Bohemian Rhapsody
Always a wild and wacky category to try and pin down, so I will throw lots of fat suits and false teeth at the board while weeping for jaw-dropping (or jaw-crushing) makeup effects in Suspiria. Note: like visual effects, this has been previously narrowed down to seven films. The other three still in contention are the aforementioned Suspiria, Border, and Stan and Ollie.
Film Editing
A Star is Born
Roma
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternate: Green Book
Is it silliness to leave out best picture frontrunner Green Book out of this category (which is traditionally tied to winning best picture), or to leave out Adam McKay's signature kitchen sink anarchic garbage from Vice? Probably, but I'm nothing if not silly.
Cinematography
Roma
First Man
A Star is Born
Cold War
The Favourite
Alternate: If Beale Street Could Talk
Honestly, it would be shocking for anything other than these six to be nominated, though if Bohemian Rhapsody or Black Panther (or the tapioca stylings of Green Book, god forbid) feel like storming any barns tomorrow morning, here'd be the place to do it.
Original Score
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Vice
Alternate: Isle of Dogs
I imagine that the only reason I've predicted Vice here is because I'm still listening to the soundtrack and it sounds awesome and feels right. Still, I'd bet someone else's left nut that Isle of Dogs or Mary Poppins Returns takes that slot instead. And fingers crossed for a wacky surprise like Annihilation or The Death of Stalin!
Sound Mixing
A Star is Born
First Man
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
A Quiet Place
Alternate: Roma
Another day, another instance of me wondering why I didn't predict Roma here. Who knows? The Academy is fickle. Maybe they shower Roma with love, maybe we're all wrong and Solo and Mission Impossible triumph here instead. The world is an imperfect place.
Sound Editing
First Man
Black Panther
Solo
Incredibles 2
Ready Player One
Alternate: A Quiet Place
So here's the thing--I've been predicting these five for months and months, and I don't necessarily think they're right, but I'm too wedded to them now to stop. Send help! Alternately, rather than sending help, predict A Quiet Place or Roma or A Star is Born or Bohemian Rhapsody and then be real smug about your victory.
Original Song
"Shallow"-A Star is Born
"All the Stars"-Black Panther
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Girl in the Movies"-Dumplin'
"I'll Fight"-RBG
Alternate: "Trip a Little Light Fantastic"-Mary Poppins Returns
This is definitely the safe list, but I've no opinions passionate enough to make me be unsafe. Maybe "Revelation" (Boy Erased's funereal love dirge) or "We Won't Move"/The Hate U Give makes it? Shame that the lovely "Suspirum" from Suspiria won't. ...Shame, really, that I haven't been talking about Suspiria this whole time. What a world! No room for beautiful wickedness.
Animated Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
Alternate: Smallfoot
Always a tough category to predict, as it's heavily reliant on both little international movies that open nowhere near me and massive popcorn fare that I tend to not do in theaters. This list looks solid though.
Foreign Language Film
Roma-Mexico
Cold War-Poland
Shoplifters-Japan
Capernaum-Lebanon
Birds of Passage-Colombia
Alternate: Burning-South Korea
A bit silly of me to predict a second, out-of-nowhere for Colombia and director Ciro Guerra, particularly when friendly and safe(ish) Euro-centric titles like Germany's Never Look Away and Denmark's The Guilty are right there, but hey. It is, as they say, my party, and my party includes South American nightmare fuel.
Documentary Feature
Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Three Identical Strangers
RBG
Minding the Gap
The Distant Barking of Dogs
Alternate: Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Year in and year out, the hardest category for me to get excited about--but I' m soldiering through, because I'm a giver. Out on a bit of a limb here, predicting that the Academy embraces both the skateboarding-cum-domestic abuse doc Minding the Gap and wacky Ukrainian child war romp The Distant Barking of Dogs over likelier candidates like Hale County or docu-blockbuster Free Solo.
For those of you playing along, here are the movies I'm predicting for the most nominations:
A Star is Born-10
The Favourite-9
Black Panther-9
First Man-7
BlacKkKlansman-6
Roma-6
Incidentally, I know it's a little silly to devote so much space to Oscar predictions when I haven't sounded off on my own preferences yet--and those posts, each longer and more horrifying than the last, are definitely in the pipeline. I've still got quite a few titles that I'd love to work through in the next two-ish weeks. In the meantime, if I could guarantee one nomination tomorrow, it'd be Suspiria for anything (makeup and original song are the only categories in which it has a chance, but I'd love to see it pop up elsewhere too), and if I could take away one nomination....where to begin? Bohemian Rhapsody or Vice for best picture? Rami Malek for actor? Bohemian Rhapsody for pretty much any craft category other than film editing? Vice and Green Book in screenplay? There's a wealth of trash to be had, if my predictions are anywhere near correct. Picking just one nomination to prevent feels like swimming upstream against a mudslide.
Come tomorrow morning, all of these predictions will be moot, and you can bet I'll be back in this space tomorrow to cheer and/or lick my cinematic wounds. Until then--what are you hoping for? Dreading? Where did I go wrong? Or, better question, where did the Academy?
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