Final Oscar Predictions: Better Late than Never

Feeling blogged out yet? No lie, I am too (still shocked that I can hit a point where I feel like I've talked too much about movies), but this is what I get for leaving all of my movie-writing compulsions to the last second, and now I get to visit my procrastinating sins on all of you. For all of our sakes, I'll try to keep this brief-ish, but wild horses couldn't keep me from writing about Oscars (even if they had swords). I've been breathlessly predicting Oscars since the beginning of high school, and the day that I stop wanting to word-vomit into the ether about the Oscars is the day that I have permanently died on the inside. So I'm jumping back onto my keyboard (for the fourth time in three days, which is more than a little excessive), and heaven help anything that stands in my way.


This Oscar season has been a fascinating--by turns chaotic, predictable, and completely wide open. I fully anticipate getting a good half of these wrong. So maybe don't come to this space looking for guidance to win your local Oscar pool. Where's the fun in these things if you don't get to be a bit silly with your predictions? And dammit, I am going to have fun. So gird your loins, cuz it's about to get silly up in here.

Best Picture
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen here--and that's a crazy rarity. There hasn't been a race this open since 2006. And here's the thing: every possible winner is absolutely impossible as a winner, in that every movie that could win has to break some long-standing Oscar statistic.
First thing to know: Best Picture operates on a preferential balloting system, in which voters rank all films from best to worst. To win, a movie has to get 50% of the entire voting body's #1 votes. This more or less can't happen from the initial vote, so after ballots have been tabulated, the movie with the fewest #1 votes is removed, and those ballots are placed into their #2 piles (so if someone voted for Darkest Hour as #1 and Get Out as #2 for instance, and Darkest Hour got the fewest top votes, this person's best picture vote would now be for Get Out). And this process of elimination and redistribution continues until one movie has 50% of the votes. What that means: it's very important to have a passionate fanbase, but it's even more important to be widely liked, especially in a year this open. The winner here is probably going to be determined by the #2 and #3 votes on any given ballot.

So what do we have?
The Shape of Water won the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Critics Choice awards, is widely loved, and has the most nominations. *But* it wasn't nominated for the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award--which doesn't seem like a big deal, unless you know that only one movie in the history of the awards has won best picture without that nomination (this stat was an early signpost that La La Land would lose last year, despite its monolithic frontrunner status).
Three Billboards won the Golden Globes, the British Academy, and the Screen Actors Guild, and going into the nominations was the indisputable frontrunner. *But* it wasn't nominated for best director, and only four movies in Academy history have won picture without director (and two of those were in the first five years of the Oscars, in which they were still figuring out what they even were). Plus, Billboards is...polarizing. It'll get plenty of #1 votes, but it'll get plenty of #9 votes too.
Get Out and Lady Bird are in the same boat--they're both well-loved and respected, and it's tough to imagine anyone ranking them too low on their ballots, so they could easily capitalize on the preferential ballot system. *But* neither were nominated for any below the line categories, and only five movies in Academy have won in a similar situation. Add to this the general rule that best picture winners have to be nominated for film editing, and these two have another hurdle. And as if that weren't enougb, Get Out only has four total nominations, which would make it the best picture with the fewest total nominations since 1933. Plus both have subject matter that's inherently not Academy-friendly--Lady Bird is a high school movie about teenage girls, and Get Out is a racially charged horror-comedy.
Finally, Dunkirk could coast through by being inoffensive and impressive, *but* it wasn't nominated for either screenplay or acting awards, and only Grand Hotel in 1932 won best picture without support from either of those branches.

So what's the lesson of that big wall o' text? All of the top competitors would be far-fetched as winners (and the other four have the same obstacles, plus others still), but somebody's got to win. So who takes it? Absolutely no idea. Smart money is probably on The Shape of Water or Three Billboards, but the past few years of Oscars have established a trend of big movies winning a boatload of Oscars but losing best picture to a smaller competitor (Gravity won 7 but lost best picture to 12 Years a Slave, Mad Max won 6, The Revenant won 3, but Spotlight took picture, La La Land won 6 but Moonlight took the top prize, etc.)--and all of that speaks well for Get Out and Lady Bird. It's a total toss-up.

Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth

Man, Get Out is absolutely not winning. What a silly prediction I've just made.

Director
The nominees:
Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of  Water
Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
Jordan Peele-Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread

Here's something much easier--Del Toro's got all the momentum, Shape of Water's arguably one of the biggest (or most flashy) 'directorial' achievements in the category, and he's at a point in his career where people want to acknowledge the great work he's been doing for years. Some people have whispered about a Nolan upset, but I honestly think Gerwig or Peele would be more likely.

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water
Could Win: Jordan Peele-Get Out
Should Win: Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name

Actress
The nominees:
Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Meryl Streep-The Post

The narrative for all four acting categories is the same: the same person has won every televised award (critics choice, golden globes, screen actors guild, british academy)--the first time this has ever happened. So pick anyone other than those four winners at your own peril. In this category, that means McDormand takes the cake. It's a shame--this category looked to be so competitive at the beginning of the season, and it certainly should have stayed that way, but everything just stagnated.

Will Win: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth

Actor
The nominees:
Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Oldman's the one to beat here. I wish Chalamet could upset (as seemed much more likely in December), but he'll have to content himself with being the youngest best actor nominee since the 30s.

Will Win: Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Should Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name*
Should Have Been Here: James McAvoy-Split

*I haven't seen Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Lesley Manville-Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water

Janney's in the pole position, with Metcalf snapping at her heels and Manville hoping to sneak between the two.

Will Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird (look, Janney's going to win, but I just can't predict those top four, and this category feels like the likeliest place for an upset)
Could Win: Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Another snoozefest--Rockwell wins.

Will Win: Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Have Been Here: Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name

Original Screenplay
The nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

One of the closest races of the year, and one to keep an eye on for clues to best picture. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards have been locked at the top for months, and each could conceivably walk away with it. Slight advantage goes to either Get Out (if they want to reward the movie somewhere, this is the easiest place to do it) or Three Billboards (a very verbose, flashy script, plus best picture heat).

Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

This should be an easy call--Call Me is the only best picture nominee, has been universally praised for its script, and was written by James Ivory, a monumentally important director of the 80s and 90s who 89 and as-of-yet Oscarless. Still, part of me worries whether Call Me is too divisive or off-putting to straight voters, leaving a hole for Mudbound's fans to slip through. Still, Call Me is definitely the odds-on frontrunner.

Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth

Production Design
The nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Tight race between Blade Runner and Water, with the latter probably pulling in more votes due to its beloved/BP nominee status. As long as those Beauty and the Beast hate crime visuals don't win, I'll be happy.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: War for the Planet of the Apes

Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Phantom Thread seems like the easy call--a movie about fashion in which the costumes are front and center--but if Shape of Water is going to sweep, look for this category to be an early indication. And there's always the chance that voters lose their minds and go for Beauty and the Beast, just to spite me.

Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread*
Should Have Been Here: Blade Runner 2049

*I haven't seen Victoria and Abdul

Visual Effects
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

The poor Apes franchise is always a bridesmaid and never an Oscar winner, and this might be the year they can rectify that, but I'd imagine that love for Blade Runner's eye-popping visuals will carry the day.

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: Thor: Ragnarok

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder

Darkest Hour wins, no contest.

Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Wonder
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Darkest Hour)

Film Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Conventional wisdom that suggests that this category is a place for the eventual best picture winner gets thrown out the window today as Water and Billboards take the back seat. Will voters warm more to the fractured timelines and war action of Dunkirk or the impeccably choreographed mayhem of Baby Driver? Tough question. Smart money's probably on Dunkirk, but...

Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: Lady Bird

Cinematography
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Roger Deakins, arguably the greatest living cinematographer, has been nominated 14 times for an Oscar without a win, and this year's work on Blade Runner seems like his best chance in a looooong time to finally take home a little gold man. Still, both Dunkirk and Shape of Water feature arresting visuals in more widely loved movies, so he's definitely not safe.

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: All These Sleepless Nights

Original Score
The nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I'd love to see Johnny Greenwood/Phantom Thread come out on top, but it'll probably Hollywood composer royalty Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water. If Water loses here, look for it to lose just about everywhere else too.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Here: Wonderstruck

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

This is a to-the-wire race between Baby Driver and Dunkirk, with Shape of Water as a possible dark horse if the movie begins to steamroll.

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: mother!

Sound Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Same nominees, same argument.

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Have Been Here: mother!

Original Song
The nominees:
"Mighty River"-Mudbound
"Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me"-Coco
"Stand Up for Something"-Marshall
"This is Me"-The Greatest Showman

Dead heat between Coco/former winners for Frozen and The Greatest Showman/former winners for La La Land. Could Mudbound or Call Me capitalize on the close race/their respective status as major nominees in other categories and pull of an upset? Probably not, but who knows?

Will Win: "This is Me"-The Greatest Showman
Could Win: "Remember Me"-Coco
Should Win: "Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: "Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name

Animated Film
The nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Coco wins, in the easiest call of the night.

Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Loving Vincent
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Coco and The Boss Baby)

Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
A Fantastic Woman-Chile
The Insult-Lebanon
Loveless-Russia
On Body and Soul-Hungary
The Square-Sweden

Impossible to say--this seems like a legit five-way race. Loveless is arguably the biggest and most significant, The Square was the odds-on frontrunner at the beginning of the season, The Insult seems like the kind of big, emotionally open traditional winner, On Body and Soul is one of the most unique, and A Fantastic Woman hit at just the right time and captured the zeitgeist. So throw a dart or something.

Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Should Win: Abstain (haven't seen any of these, sadly)

Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Also tough to call. Last Men and Strong Island are emotionally resonant, Icarus is timely (it's about the Russian Olympic doping scandal), and Faces Places was made by French New Wave legend Agnes Varda, who's never won a competitive Oscar.

Will Win: Icarus
Could Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Last Men in Aleppo)


So that's that. By my predictions, The Shape of Water wins the most of the night (Director, Production Design, Original Score), but Get Out squeaks through to be the smallest best picture winner in 80 years. I'm probably wrong, right? We'll find out tonight!




Aaaaaand here's an extra bonus post! Note--feel free to check out here. I thought about doing this as a separate post, but decided to minimize the number of times I assault your facebook feed. As a nice summary of the year, and as a reminder that, despite my preocuppation with them, The Oscars aren't the be-all end-all of the cinematic year, underneath you'll find my anti-Oscar ballot. The only rule: I can't nominate anything that was nominated for an Oscar. What you'll find is that the cinematic talent displayed this year runs deep, and even if the Academy made some good choices, there is still a massive pool of accomplished artists who didn't aren't getting the attention they deserve.

So here we go! No commentary, no rankings--just alphabetical nominees, with winners in bold.

The Anti-Oscars

Best Picture
BPM
Casting JonBenet
The Florida Project
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Lady Macbeth
mother!
Nocturama
Raw
The Work

Director
Darren Aronofsky-mother!
Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
William Oldroyd-Lady Macbeth
Denis Villeneuve-Blade Runner 2049

Actress
Gal Gadot-Wonder Woman
Vicky Krieps-Phantom Thread
Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
Kristen Stewart-Personal Shopper
Michelle Williams-All the Money in the World

Actor
James McAvoy-Split
Robert Pattinson-Good Time
Nahuel Perez Biscayart-BPM
Jeremy Renner-Wind River
Arnoid Valois-BPM

Supporting Actress
Naomie Ackie-Lady Macbeth
Betty Gabriel-Get Out
Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip
Bria Vinaite-The Florida Project
Allison Williams-Get Out

Supporting Actor
Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sebastian Stan-I, Tonya
Patrick Stewart-Logan
Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me by Your Name

Original Screenplay
BPM
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Nocturama
Personal Shopper
Phantom Thread

Adapted Screenplay
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
The Lost City of Z
Thor: Ragnarok
Wonder Woman

Production Design
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Thor: Ragnarok
War for the Planet of the Apes

Costume Design
Atomic Blonde
The Beguiled
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
Wonder Woman

Visual Effects
Alien: Covenant
Dunkirk
Okja
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Thor: Ragnarok

Makeup
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Raw

Film Editing
Get Out
Good Time
Lady Bird
Logan Lucky
Nocturama

Cinematography
All These Sleepless Nights
The Beguiled
Call Me by Your Name
Lady Macbeth
The Wound

Original Score
Darkest Hour
Good Time
Logan
Mudbound
Wonderstruck

Sound Mixing
Atomic Blonde
The Florida Project
The Lost City of Z

mother!

Nocturama

Sound Editing
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Phantom Thread
Raw
Thor: Ragnarok

Original Song
"The Greatest Show"-The Greatest Showman
"Never Enough"-The Greatest Showman
"Proud Corazon"-Coco
"Re-Write the Stars"-The Greatest Showman
"Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name

(...so I liked The Greatest Showman. Dealwithit.)