Oscar Nominations 2022: Raise Your Hand if You Have Ever Been Personally Victimized by a WW1 Movie

 

(source)

Ok, maybe I'm being a little melodramatic. I said yesterday that I was having an off-consensus year, and viewed through the lens of being somewhere between miffed and mortified by so many of the potential big contenders, things could have been much worse. Top Gun underperformed in most of the right places (though it still got a nomination for its screenplay, which is, uh, a bold and creative choice), The Whale underperformed, Black Panther excelled where it should have without making us scratch our heads to much thinking about it as a best picture nominee, and only like...two of my current bottom five of the year got nominated for anything. Granted, only two of my current top 10 got any kind of big support, but what can you do? The answer, of course, is spend the next 10,000 years screaming about the fact that my personal nemesis, All Quiet on the Western Front, was nominated for nine (nine!!!) Oscars this morning. And I plan to scream, but I'll try to leaven that by celebrating all the fun and groovy surprises this morning, of which there were many. 

Maybe the biggest story of the year is the triumph of commercial fare, with the two highest grossing films of the year (Avatar and Top Gun) making it into best picture--the first time this has happened since 1982, the third highest grossing film of the year (Black Panther) garnering the most nominations for a movie not nominated for best picture, and other financial successes like Elvis, The Batman, and nomination leader Everything Everywhere All at Once (the little indie that could, making $100 million worldwide) doing great. That's not to say that no tiny movies thrived this morning (Andrea Riseborough is surely on a dirt bike right now, wheelie-ing her way into the history books), but it's striking to see such a robust morning for studio fare. Now, if the Oscar telecast ratings are low again, maybe the Academy will finally realize that ratings aren't tied to the nominated films as much as they are that live TV and awards shows in general are in decline.

But enough context--let's look at the nominations! I'll put an asterisk next to the nominations I predicted correctly, but my silliness might have gotten the better of me this year, so they may be few and far between.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Avatar: The Way of Water*

The Banshees of Inisherin*

Elvis*

Everything Everywhere All at Once*

The Fabelmans*

Tar*

Top Gun: Maverick*

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Not at all surprised that my RRR moonshot from yesterday came to naught, but I am surprised how (relatively) strong a showing Triangle of Sadness managed after seeming to be totally out of the race. Ditto Women Talking, which clung to life here despite missing almost everywhere else. Overall, this list is...fine? It's maybe not my dream lineup, but it's a nifty snapshot of the year, and there's more than one option to pick for an interesting winner.

Early winner prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Director

Todd Field-Tar*

Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin*
Ruben Östlund-Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans*

Östlund was one of the biggest surprises of the morning for sure (and one I'm still wrangling with, given my fraught relationship with his body of work). Daniel Kwan is now the fifth Asian director nominated in four years--a wild and spectacular statistic, considering only four Asian men (Hiroshi Teshigihara, Akira Kurosawa, M. Night Shyamalan, and Ang Lee) had been nominated in this category in the rest of the Academy's history. Spielberg also ties for the second most nominated director of all time with this, his ninth nomination.

Early winner prediction: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Actress

Cate Blanchett-Tar*

Ana De Armas-Blonde*

Andrea Riseborough-To Leslie

Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Yesterday, I called Riseborough's late-breaking Oscar run a publicity campaign for the movie, and I am happy to eat my words. Also happy to see Michelle Williams make it--it's not my favorite performance of her career (or in the movie), but I, uh, tend to go pretty hard for The Fabelmans. Also worth noting that Michelle Yeoh becomes the first ever Asian woman to be nominated in this category.

Early winner prediction: Cate Blanchett-Tar

Actor

Austin Butler-Elvis*

Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin*

Brendan Fraser-The Whale*

Paul Mescal-Aftersun*

Bill Nighy-Living*

Probably my biggest clapping/whooping outburst came from hearing Mescal's name, who gives a fantastic performance in a fantastic movie. Conventional wisdom suggests that Fraser and Farrell fight to the death now, but will the Academy's love of biopics and Elvis, which garnered 8 nominations, bring Butler the win? This category contains all first-time nominees, the first time that's happened in best actor since 1934--and this time is certainly more noteworthy, given the pool of prior nominees was much smaller in 1934, less than a decade after the Oscars began. The acting categories in general were dominated by first time nominees: a full 16 out of 20 slots went to first-timers.

Early winner prediction: Brendan Fraser-The Whale

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*

Hong Chau-The Whale

Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin*

Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All at Once

The most volatile category ended up with more of a bang than a whimper, with the final slots going to supporting players acting next to threats to win the lead races and two performers from the most nominated film. ...I mean that relatively, of course, given this category also contains the first acting nomination for a Marvel movie and a performance whose most emotional moments come when that character has hot dogs for fingers. So it's still pretty wacky and volatile, and not just in its content--I'd argue that any of these women but Chau has a shot to win.

Early winner prediction: Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin*

Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway

Judd Hirsch-The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin*

Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Thrilled for Brian Tyree Henry, whose well-deserved nomination was starting to look like a lost cause. What does poor Paul Dano have to do to make the Academy love him? Whose grandmother did he run over? Every Oscar season narrative he gets seems to end in sixth place. Still, I am over the moon that Barry Keoghan finally has an Oscar nomination for being one of the most rewardingly weird guys in front of a camera right now, and I'll be delighted to watch Ke Huy Quan get his Oscar.

Early winner prediction: Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin*
Everything Everywhere All at Once*

The Fabelmans*

Tar*

Triangle of Sadness*

The same five that have shown up everywhere in the precursors showed up here as well, and they're not a bad bunch. The way looks clear for the Banshee/Everywhere showdown that was always going to happen. Does the movie that wins this category win best picture? Maybe? Probably?

Early winner prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front*
Glass Onion*

Living
Top Gun: Maverick*

Women Talking*

I've kept the All Quiet screaming to a minimum, but let me just say that this getting in for its adaptation is absolute lunacy, and I will never, ever get over it. If you follow me on letterboxd (which you should do! Find me here), then you can read the couple thousand words I wrote on why the book is a miserable and ethically dubious take on an anti-war book. But if you don't, let me sum up my feelings by banging my head against the wall for eight years. Given All Quiet's presence, I don't even have enough emotional bandwidth to be as annoyed as I should by Top Gun's presence. Weird year for this category, huh? Women Talking has seemed like the undisputed frontrunner here for months, and still might be. But while it would be stupendous to see Sarah Polley with an Oscar in her hands, I'm deeply nervous that one of those other two movies (the ones that have me banging my head against the wall) will swoop in and take it from her.

Early winner prediction: Women Talking (but I'm not convinced)

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Avatar: The Way of Water*

Babylon*

Elvis*

The Fabelmans

Pretty strong lineup, all things considered. Vaguely surprising for Everything Everywhere to miss this, given how much the Academy clearly loved it. Also fun to see The Fabelmans show up more than I'd hoped it would (it scored seven nominations to my predicted five). Guess they loved all those period TVs in the living room?

Early winner prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

Costume Design

Babylon*
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*

Elvis*

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris*

God bless Mrs. Harris, who now gets to add Hollywood to her list of travel destinations. Additional blessings for Black Panther--I'm not the sequel's biggest fans, but if it didn't score here I was ready to swallow an entire rack of Victorian gowns in protest. Both this race and Production Design look like they'll come to Babylon vs. Elvis, with special spoiler Literally Anything Else.

Early winner prediction: Elvis

Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Avatar: The Way of Water*

The Batman*

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick*

Color me furious and disheartened that Nope didn't manage a nomination here (or anywhere, which is dumb and bad), especially to make room for Black Panther's limpid faux-underwater skullduggery. This category (among others) showcases that the Academy will always love a Batman movie more than a Marvel one (unless it's Black Panther). Not that I'm complaining--I also would have picked The Batman over the Marvel output this year in most categories. I'll also take this opportunity to point how poorly Avatar fared across the morning, only landing in the default spots. The second movie in a trilogy (or series, I suppose) tends to struggle with the Academy, but this Avatar struggled more than most.

Early winner prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water

Makeup and Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman*

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis*

The Whale*

Signs here for how much they loved All Quiet on the Western Front (not that we're wanting for signs), given how rarely gore makeup plays for this category, as well as for the level of enthusiasm for Black Panther (landing both here and in visual effects was something that the original movie failed to do). You have to imagine that it was close to cracking the top 10, right?

Early winner prediction: The Whale

Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin*

Elvis*

Everything Everywhere All at Once*

Tar

Top Gun: Maverick*

Probably a solid snapshot of the potential best picture winners (while you don't have to be nominated in editing to win best picture, it definitely helps), and a real slug-fest between Most Edits between Elvis, Everything Everywhere, and Top Gun.

Early winner prediction: Top Gun: Maverick

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Bardo*

Elvis

Empire of Light*

Tar

Far and away the category most deeply besotted with chaos on this Oscar morning. Top Gun, the uncontested frontrunner in this category, had been hoovering up every cinematography prize known to man (and some to animals) and seemed guaranteed to do the same at the Oscars, until the cinematographers scampered down their runway and pushed all those planes back into the abyss. What's left is a wide-open race with some intriguing and horrifying choices. Will Roger Deakins win a third Oscar for coastal British nightmare Empire of Light? Will All Quiet add to its pile of Oscars for having so much fun fetishizing the ugliness of war? Will Mandy Walker, only the third woman ever nominated in this category, become the first ever woman to win for Elvis? I don't know that Elvis would be my personal pick, but cinematography is the only Oscar category that has never been won by a woman, so I might root for it anyway. Also, let's take a moment to celebrate Tar's below the line strength, getting (somewhat) unexpected nods here and in film editing. Wondering whose child Lydia Tar berated at school to make this happen.

Early winner prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon*

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans*

Feels like a grim category, even if I love the Babylon score, dig the Fabelmans score (normally I'm against the constant John Williams default nods, but this felt like his best work at least since Munich in 2005), and think the others are all at least .... palatable? But given the nominations that could have been, I'll reserve the right to pout a bit. (Sidebar: I have got to stop predicting Michael Abels as the surprise nominee for a Jordan Peele movie. I've done it three times now, with no success.)

Early winner prediction: Babylon

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front*

Avatar: The Way of Water*

The Batman

Elvis*

Top Gun: Maverick*

Well, this category is nothing if not loud. Thrilled to see The Batman's gloomy and teeth-gnashing sound work get in, and the rest is fine, I suppose, if you're into explosions. 

Early winner prediction: Top Gun: Maverick

Original Song

"Applause"-Tell It Like a Woman*

"Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick*
"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever*

"Naatu Naatu"-RRR

"This is a Life"-Everything Everywhere All at Once

As always, Diane Warren rises from the depths, trident in hand, come to claim her prize for writing a song for a movie that snapped into existence two days ago. I swear, one of these years, the Academy will stop making crawl into the depths of the internet to find this year's dour Diane Warren-backed project. But it won't be this year, which means I'll have to sit myself in front of Tell It Like a Woman. "Naatu Naatu" becomes the very first Indian song to be nominated for this year (which feels impossible, given the presence and prevalence of Indian musicals, but here we are). It's also, as chance (or something else) would have it, the only song on this list that is not an emotional ballad played over the end credits. A big emotional credits ballad can be a huge asset to a movie (Celine Dion didn't sink that Titanic for nothing), but it would also be neat to see at least one or two songs that play a role in their film as well.

Early winner prediction: "Naatu Naatu"-RRR

Animated Film

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio*

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On*

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish*

The Sea Beast

Turning Red*

Blessings be, my nightmare Pinocchio (a character that made me physically recoil in fear and horror, and a film that I've since decided I didn't like at all), only showed up here, when some people were predicting it for as many as four or five nominations (including best picture). Thankfully--for me, at least--the spooky posh little log boy remains trapped in his prison. Something of a shock to see The Sea Beast muscle past its higher profile competition, but not an entirely unpleasant one. But speaking of unpleasant, now I have to be the single man in his mid 30s who walks up to a ticket booth on a Thursday at 1.35 and says hi, can I get one for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.

Early winner prediction: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany*

Argentina, 1985-Argentina*

Close-Belgium*

EO-Poland

The Irish Girl-Ireland*

The big shock here is South Korea's Decision to Leave missing out, which is obviously a bummer. But I'll admit that I can't really pick what it should replace, as I haven't seen most of these (and the one I have seen I can't stand, so). Fun to see Ireland get its first nomination with a Gaelic-language film, and even more fun to see EO show up to represent the year of the cinematic donkey. (So many high profile donkeys in movies this year. What do they know that we don't?)

Early winner prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany

Documentary Feature

All That Breathes*

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed*

Fire of Love*

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

Again, I can't comment too much here, given how unacquainted I am, but I love to see the gorgeous and altogether wonderful Fire of Love finding a spot here. 

Early winner prediction: All That Breathes

Of the non-specialty categories (i.e. not animated, international, or documentary), I've seen most of the nominees already, missing only Blonde, To Leslie, Living, Bardo, and Tell It Like a Woman. These might already be enough to shatter my hopes of seeing all the nominees before Oscar night, as I missed Living in theaters and it's not available elsewhere yet, and Tell It Like a Woman apparently doesn't exist. Exactly 30 people have logged it on Letterboxd, and it only has 47 ratings on IMDB--like, if the entire crew went onto either of those sites, it'd have more than twice those numbers. The other categories look even worse. I've seen all the animated movies but Puss in Boots, which is waiting for me at my local multiplex, but have only seen on each of the international and documentary nominees. Of those eight movies, only Argentina, 1985 and Navalny are currently available to me. While I'm hopeful that more of these movies will become easier to access now that they're Oscar-nominated, I won't keep my hopes too high. Unfortunately, this year I moved to somewhere with much worse indie theater infrastructure than where I lived before, and then I didn't have a car for a lot of the prime period when movies like these were in theaters. So I'm afraid I'm a bit behind the eight ball, but I'll still try and check off as many of these as I can.

Predictions-wise, I found myself somewhere in the middle. I only completely nailed best actor and adapted screenplay, but I also flubbed original score with only two correct guess. Still, the rest of the categories went well enough, so I'll live to predict again. 

For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once-11

2. The Banshees of Inisherin-9

3. All Quiet on the Western Front-9

4. Elvis-8

5. The Fabelmans-7

6. Tar-6

7. Top Gun: Maverick-6

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever-5

9. Avatar: The Way of Water-4

10. Triangle of Sadness-3

Definitely a spread the wealth kind of year, with only one movie hitting double digits, and even then only just. 

And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: The Woman King, She Said, Decision to Leave, A Man Called Otto, The Inspection, Till, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Menu, White Noise, Bones and All, Nope, Corsage, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Amsterdam, Moonage Daydream, Inu-Oh, Wendell and Wild, Strange World, Saint Omer, Return to Seoul, Joyland, The Territory, Mad God, The Northman, Cha Cha Real Smooth, Catherine Called Birdy, Crimes of the Future, Pearl, Barbarian, The Lost City, You Won't Be Alone, Three Thousand Years of Longing, Moonfall

You win some, you lose some.

And there we have it! What are your reactions? What makes you furious, thrilled, or horrified? As always, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I love the Oscars and all the silly little things that come with them, and every year before the nominations I have trouble sleeping, like a kid before Christmas. It's silly and stupid, but something ought to be.

Oscar Predictions 2022: Just Keep Filming, Kid

At some point in the years following 2020, I'm going to have to start this intro about something other than the interminable and impossible passage of time (how can it be 2023 when my new iPhone 6 clearly says that is 2015 at the very latest), the collective limbo we're all doing our best to crawl out of, and how the concepts of movies and moviegoing continue threatening to swallow themselves whole. And maybe, just maybe, 2024 will be the year that I write something new (relevant contemporary news events like Godzilla crawling his way out of the depths and finding everything above the water distasteful, or maybe aliens will turn out to be real, but really boring to talk to), but in this, the year 2023, I'm going to lovingly tape my broken record back together and lament the fact that a) it is 2023, b) time is meaningless, and c) oh god, the movies, who will save the movies, etc. 

I can't help but see all this reflected back in this year's movie slate, though, which featured a quietly staggering number of films about filmmaking, the continued relevance of film, stardom, or even art in general, and how Hollywood should perceive itself and its own checkered history. Again and again this year, we got to watch directors staging the act of looking everything that entails. But, as Jordan Peele taught us in Nope, the great flying sky eyeball/anus comes for us all, and there's nothing to do but grit your teeth, point your camera, and get ready to be pulled into the sky.

The real (and most important) question, however, is which of these movies will get showered in little golden men before they get swallowed whole? Well you're in luck, as I have been, if for nothing else, been put on this Earth to regale you with Oscar facts and opinions until I pass out from the exertion. And I'm already pulled out a preemptive fainting couch, as these year's Oscars are poised to be absolutely silly. We find ourselves in a post-covid (well, post-lockdown, as there is no post-covid) movie slump in which fewer movies are being produced and even fewer movies are making their way to theaters (this year saw only two thirds the number of wide releases as 2019 did), which means that the Academy will either have to stretch to find small and weird movies it wouldn't have previously considered, or it's going to take a deep breath and toss its biggest awards at what seem to be the only movies left in theaters--big franchise fare. And as it turns out, we might be in for a good bit of both. The 2022 Oscars might see the three highest grossers of the year all nominated for best picture--something that has never even once happened--but it might also see a wider than average slew of tiny indies and international fare bolster its ranks. Who's to say? (Me, I'm to say.) As for my own preferences, I'm finding myself in an off-consensus year, where very little that I truly loved is poised to do much more than fight for scraps, and plenty of nominations could be coming that will make me want to reach inside of my head and pull my eyes back into my skull like horrified little turtles.

At any rate, there's a huge amount of room for shock and upheaval, and also plenty of room to take the easy way at every opportunity and turn in some of the dullest Oscar noms in recent memory. Fingers crossed for the former, and pitchforks prepared for the latter. But while we wait to find out, I'll go ahead and dump all my predictions into one irresponsibly large post. Bear in mind that I predict for fun just as much as I predict for accuracy--there are plenty of places on the internet to go if you're looking for stone-faced predictions, but there are only so many places to turn to if wanted someone to photoshop Sammy Fabelman into Nope and then make some butt jokes. And of all the butt jokes in all the world, you walked into mine, so let's work with what we've got.

(note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood--so the first movie listed is the most likely, the second the next most likely, etc.)

Best Picture

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

Top Gun: Maverick

The Fabelmans

Tar

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Whale

RRR

Alternate: Women Talking

The first six are all solid locks, led by Everything Everywhere which, in the course of eight months, has gone from silly daydream to the most-embraced a sci-fi martial arts absurdist comedy family drama with a whole fight about who gets to put a little statue up their butt movie has ever been. Avatar and All Quiet aren't quite as safe, but both make sense (at least in a precursor sense--I've no idea how or why All Quiet got this powerful, but just the idea of it scoring here makes me beg for the sweet embrace of death. That leaves two slots with a ridiculous number of strong contenders. The Whale seems like an easy choice (it's done well at the precursors, is beloved in the real world even if it's hated online, and all the older women at my screening were audibly weeping during it, which feels like a reliable bellwether). So what's left? You've got a few awards-friendly movies whose critical and audience reception wasn't what was hoped for with Women Talking and Babylon, you've got muscular and respected (if not loved) commercial choices like The Woman King, Glass Onion, and Black Panther, and you've got fringe-ier choices with deep pockets of passionate support like Triangle of Sadness, RRR, and Aftersun. And...I had hoped that listing all these options would help me decide what to put in that ninth spot, but it didn't. Smart money says Women Talking, but I've got a gut feeling that it'll miss. So while we're sticking with our guts, I'll do something very silly and add RRR into the top 10, even if it has limited chances anywhere else--surely enough voters will have seen it and decided that any movie in which a protagonist wields a tiger as a melee weapon deserves a spot at the top.

Director

Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans

Todd Field-Tar

Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin

James Cameron-Avatar: The Way of Water

Alternate: Edward Berger-All Quiet on the Western Front

Unless the Academy throws some huge curveballs (and they might--I've heard whispers of a Spielberg or McDonagh snub), only the last spot is up for grabs here. Recently, the directing branch has opted for a 'cool' pick (something indie or international) where everyone else goes mainstream, which would benefit Berger, Park Chan-wook for Decision to Leave, S.S. Rajamouli for RRR, and particularly Charlotte Wells for Aftersun, who I almost picked. Or if best picture buzz is all that matters this year, Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun and Baz Luhrmann for Elvis could easily make a showing. But the latter two don't strike me as directing nominees, and all the hip and sexy options don't feel right, so I'll say Cameron gets rewarded for spending thirteen years teaching cameras how breathe underwater.

Actress

Cate Blanchett-Tar

Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Danielle Deadwyler-Till

Viola Davis-The Woman King

Ana De Armas-Blonde

Alternate: Ana De Armas-Blonde

Three locked spots followed by a bevy of seemingly impossible contenders, but someone's got to make it in. Conventional wisdom suggests Davis, De Armas, and Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans fighting for two spots, but I struggle to imagine either of the latter campaigns happening (and if we're being honest, Davis in The Woman King feels like the kind of predicted nominee that we'll all look back on and slap our foreheads, wondering we we could have thought it was going to happen). But who fills the space they left? People (specifically celebrities on twitter) won't stop talking about Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie, but it feels more like a last-minute publicity campaign than a serious contender, and Emma Thompson in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande seems similarly doomed. Margot Robbie in Babylon and Olivia Colman in Empire of Light wait in the wings, but do either of them seem any more plausible than a major Oscar nom for Blonde? So I've gone with Davis as the easy pick and De Armas operating under the assumption that the Academy is going to force me to watch Blonde.

Actor

Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser-The Whale

Austin Butler-Elvis

Bill Nighy-Living

Paul Mescal-Aftersun

Alternate: Tom Cruise-Top Gun: Maverick

I guess I'm entering my agnosticator-prognosticator phase, because I don't believe in like half of the nominations I'm picking. The top three are golden, but I am struggling to believe that Bill Nighy is actually secure.  Ditto Mescal, whose performance I adore, but he's awfully young, in a very small movie, and not known for his film work. But who would replace them? The Tom Cruise nomination push feels like something drawn from the ugliest parts of my subconscious, forced to chase me around and ruin my day--which makes it plausible, I guess, but unsavory. A Tom Hanks/A Man Called Otto jump scare might be smart, but you'll see in a bit that I've got my own Tom Hanks nightmare bonanza planned, so asking for two would be presumptuous. And beyond those men? Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans, Adam Sandler/Hustle, Jeremy Pope/The Inspection, Hugh Jackman/The Son all feel more like faces you'd see on milk cartons in the mid 80s than likely Oscar scenarios, so I'll stick with the boys I've got and be ready to throw a whole lot of side-eye their way.

Supporting Actress

Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin

Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dolly De Leon-Triangle of Sadness

Nina Hoss-Tar

Alternate: Hong Chau-The Whale

Pound for pound the weirdest category, and maybe of my Oscar-watching lifetime? Beyond Condon, absolutely no one is safe, and a winning narrative could come from at least seven or eight different people. Bassett and Curtis are arguably the safest, both angling for career honors in genres that the Academy usually doesn't love, but I wouldn't be surprised seeing either of them miss. Dolly De Leon in Triangle of Sadness, Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Hong Chau in The Whale all complete a trifecta of stellar Asian actresses who all seem to be competing with each other (unfortunately, the Academy has in the past had a somewhat pronounced bias toward Asian actors and cinema in general). Any talking woman from Women Talking could theoretically make it, Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy in particular, and Carey Mulligan/She Said, Janelle Monae/Glass Onion, Keke Palmer/Nope could reclaim some of their early season glory. But I'm gonna throw all that logic out the window and say that Nina Hoss in Tar gets it without any precursor support whatsoever. Most years, at least one performer who acts next to a big frontrunner (like Cate Blanchett this year) slides in with their more awards-laden scene partner--and it helps that Hoss is just as good (if not better) than Blanchett. And I'll pick Dolly De Leon as well because I threw a metaphorical dart and that's where it landed.

Supporting Actor

Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Dano-The Fabelmans

Tom Hanks-Elvis

Alternate: Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway

You know, with the supporting actress race eating up all the bananas energy room, I feel like we haven't fully girded our loins for how bananas these guys might get as well. Plenty of people are predicting an easy 2/2/1 split with the Banshees boys and the Fabelmans (Dano and Judd Hirsch) each getting dual nods in the same category--something that almost never happens. And sure, there are boring or default options (I see you, Eddie Redmayne in The Good Nurse! I see you, Brad Pitt in Babylon!), but there's also room for some fresh hell. What about a shocking James Hong/Everything Everywhere nod? What if all the dual nods miss and are filled with indie fare like Causeway and Ben Whishaw in Women Talking? Or what if, hypothetically, a heavily made up Tom Hanks with a silly accent snuck around an acclaimed movie with best picture heat, even if the discourse from the summer was all about how terrible a performance it was? Maybe it's far-fetched, but it also feels inevitable.

Original Screenplay

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Tar

Triangle of Sadness

Alternate: The Menu

I came this close to swapping The Menu and Triangle of Sadness, assuming the Academy would go for the more recent of two similarly minded, themed, and looking films, but the season has coalesced so decisively around these five movies that it'd be silly to pick anything different. Still, fingers, toes, and several vital organs crossed for Aftersun.

Adapted Screenplay

Women Talking

The Whale

Glass Onion

All Quiet on the Western Front

Top Gun: Maverick

Alternate: She Said

Most years some degree of parity between big contenders in original and adapted screenplay. This year, however, has gifted us with a hot mess of ragged contenders stumbling their way out of the race, sidelined indie fare, and big movies that, uh, are not most revered for their writing. Maybe the only category this year where I wouldn't be surprised if any of the predicted five missed. Plenty of projects waiting in the wings (White Noise, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Bones and All, and Living spring immediately to mind), but I tend to think that this category will either hit us with all the most obvious picks (i.e. the top six up there) or throw some gonzo curveballs that no one could have seen coming.

Production Design

Babylon

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: The Fabelmans

Starting a couple different narratives as we enter the craft categories: how high can All Quiet on the Western Front and Everything Everywhere fly, and how hard is early season frontrunner going to fall? For better or worse, I think the answer in all instances is a lot (accompanied two out of three times by a weary eyeroll from me). We can ask a similar question of Black Panther, which, despite its middling critical acclaim and somewhat disappointing financial returns, is poised to get as many as nine nominations or as few as one or two.

Costume Design

Babylon

Elvis

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Corsage

Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris and Corsage feel like the kinds of fashion-first period pics that use the clothes to tell the story that often land here. I'd love to throw in a Glass Onion surprise, but I just can't see it happening. Still, Everything Everywhere or The Woman King could muscle in on the strength of their craft (or their prestige).

Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water

Top Gun: Maverick

The Batman

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Dumbledore

Nope

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front

My guiding principle for this category is that the Academy will seek to hurt us (Fantastic Beasts), but then they'll feel really bad about us and do something nice for the world (Nope). I haven't seen Fantastic Beasts or Jurassic World: Dominion doing well on anyone's predictions list, but it's worth pointing out that the Visual Effects Society (The only industry precursor for this category) went wild for both of those while ignoring 'safer' bets. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. In addition to the seven I've already talked about, the other finalists are Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Thirteen Lives.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Elvis

The Whale

The Batman

Blonde

Amsterdam

Alternate: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Another roster designed to make me watch things I don't want to watch (have I just been doing this too long? Have I lost the sunny optimism that would have once had me believe that I wasn't going to have to watch Amsterdam for the Academy's sick amusement?). I see tons of people predicting All Quiet on the Western Front, which seems like a safe bet, but this category almost never goes for gore makeup, even in the context of war movies, so I'll remain skeptical for now. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. In addition to the seven discussed above, the other finalists are Babylon, Crimes of the Future, and Emancipation. (Lol watch Emancipation get the nod and then we all have to get invested in a Will Smith Oscar narrative way sooner than we were planning.)

Film Editing

Top Gun: Maverick

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Elvis

The Banshees of Inisherin

Avatar: The Way of Water

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front

Traditionally, this is the craft category most tied to best picture, so look here to see what might be surging or flagging (a Fabelmans surprise or Banshees snub, for instance). Maybe even Tar gets in and establishes itself as a bigger threat in the big race? Whatever keeps All Quiet on the Western Front away.

Cinematography

Top Gun: Maverick

All Quiet on the Western Front

Empire of Light

Avatar: The Way of Water

Bardo

Alternate: Elvis

Not at all confident with these choices, Avatar feeling the most vulnerable to an upset. Not sure about Bardo, but Innaritu's never made a movie that the Academy didn't nominate, and this feels like as plausible a place as any to do it. The Batman and The Fabelmans seem likely as alternates, and even likelier as the superhero team-up we all deserve. Look for Elvis, Everything Everywhere, or Banshees to show up here if they have a strong morning.

Original Score

Babylon

The Fabelmans

Women Talking

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Nope

Alternate: The Banshees of Inisherin

To what extent are we letting the early season narratives cloud our judgement? The predictions are dominated by movies that have fallen flat on their face as the year went on--is it ridiculous to think that they all (Babylon, The Fabelmans, Women Talking) might miss in favor of fresher films? Probably, but I'm gonna think about it anyway. And speaking of thinking, I'm gonna do my very best to manifest a Nope nomination here by thinking very strong and positive thoughts, and I invite you all to join me.

Sound

Top Gun: Maverick

Elvis

Avatar: The Way of Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alternate: The Batman

Though I'd love to find room for The Batman, this feels like the right five to me: A good mix of genre fare, musicals, and the token sound slot for the best picture frontrunner. Note: this category has already been narrowed down to a 10 film shortlist. The other finalists are Babylon, Moonage Daydream, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio.

Original Song

"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

"Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick

"Naatu Naatu"-RRR

"Applause"-Tell It Like a Woman

"Til You're Home"-A Man Called Otto

Alternate: "Ciao Papa"-Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

The yearly blood rite is complete, and Diane Warren will storm the Dolby theater once more with a soulful ballad from a film that probably didn't exist until the sheer power of her words pulled it from the ether. And speaking of blood rites, I've been doing my best to stave off the encroaching A Man Called Otto assault, but I've failed, which means I'm going to have to drag my ass into a theater for two hours just so I can hear the end credits song.

Animated Film

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Turning Red

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Bad Guys

Inu-Oh

Alternate: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Despite having a normal lineup two minutes ago, I was possessed by a last minute fit of madness (no doubt inspired by all the blood magic in the previous paragraph) and have chosen chaos with a Marcel snub and Inu-Oh sneaking in over more obvious smaller titles like Wendell and Wild or My Father's Dragon. But I've got to be me, even when being me means doing something stupid.

International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany

Decision to Leave-South Korea

Argentina, 1985-Argentina

Close-Belgium

The Quiet Girl-Ireland

Alternate: Return to Seoul-Cambodia

Unbelievably difficult to predict this year, thanks to a wildly acclaimed and by all accounts spectacular list of qualifiers. I was tempted to pick a real longshot like Joyland from Pakistan or even The Blue Caftan from Morocco, but it seems I used up all my courage the last category, so we'll have to settle for the relative safety of a nomination for Ireland.

Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

Descendant

Moonage Daydream

Alternate: Navalny

Threw a dart to predict this year's high-profile snub in a category that almost always cold-shoulders at least one of its frontrunners, and the dart struck Navalny, on top of everything else he has to deal with. I'll admit that I haven't seen most of the movies eligible here, and, as always, can conjure only sporadic enthusiasm, but I've got my fingers crossed for whichever outcome would be the best.

And there you have it! For those playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:

Everything Everywhere All at Once-9

The Banshees of Inisherin-8

Elvis-8

Avatar: The Way of Water-7

Top Gun: Maverick-7

I'm maybe over-predicting Avatar and under-predicting All Quiet and The Fabelmans--the first out of pure and unbridled malice, and the second in hopes that I can reverse-psychology the Academy into showering The Fabelmans in little gold men.

I know it's silly for me to so wantonly spend all of these words talking about Oscars when I haven't talked about my own picks--but those are coming soon! Sometime in February, as per the usual schedule/what the screaming rock hyraxes in my head dictate. But for now, if I could guarantee any nomination (or narrative), it'd be Aftersun having a shocking and major run a la Beasts of the Southern Wild in 2012, and if I could prevent one nomination (or narrative), I would slap the pens/mice out of as many hands as possible that were voting for All Quiet on the Western Front. 

And that's it! In about 15 hours, every one of these predictions will be meaningless, which is exactly as it should be. I'll be back in the morning to unwrap all the Oscar presents and see how happy we should be (or how rocks we have to throw).