Final Oscar Predictions: Better Late than Never

Feeling blogged out yet? No lie, I am too (still shocked that I can hit a point where I feel like I've talked too much about movies), but this is what I get for leaving all of my movie-writing compulsions to the last second, and now I get to visit my procrastinating sins on all of you. For all of our sakes, I'll try to keep this brief-ish, but wild horses couldn't keep me from writing about Oscars (even if they had swords). I've been breathlessly predicting Oscars since the beginning of high school, and the day that I stop wanting to word-vomit into the ether about the Oscars is the day that I have permanently died on the inside. So I'm jumping back onto my keyboard (for the fourth time in three days, which is more than a little excessive), and heaven help anything that stands in my way.


This Oscar season has been a fascinating--by turns chaotic, predictable, and completely wide open. I fully anticipate getting a good half of these wrong. So maybe don't come to this space looking for guidance to win your local Oscar pool. Where's the fun in these things if you don't get to be a bit silly with your predictions? And dammit, I am going to have fun. So gird your loins, cuz it's about to get silly up in here.

Best Picture
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen here--and that's a crazy rarity. There hasn't been a race this open since 2006. And here's the thing: every possible winner is absolutely impossible as a winner, in that every movie that could win has to break some long-standing Oscar statistic.
First thing to know: Best Picture operates on a preferential balloting system, in which voters rank all films from best to worst. To win, a movie has to get 50% of the entire voting body's #1 votes. This more or less can't happen from the initial vote, so after ballots have been tabulated, the movie with the fewest #1 votes is removed, and those ballots are placed into their #2 piles (so if someone voted for Darkest Hour as #1 and Get Out as #2 for instance, and Darkest Hour got the fewest top votes, this person's best picture vote would now be for Get Out). And this process of elimination and redistribution continues until one movie has 50% of the votes. What that means: it's very important to have a passionate fanbase, but it's even more important to be widely liked, especially in a year this open. The winner here is probably going to be determined by the #2 and #3 votes on any given ballot.

So what do we have?
The Shape of Water won the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Critics Choice awards, is widely loved, and has the most nominations. *But* it wasn't nominated for the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award--which doesn't seem like a big deal, unless you know that only one movie in the history of the awards has won best picture without that nomination (this stat was an early signpost that La La Land would lose last year, despite its monolithic frontrunner status).
Three Billboards won the Golden Globes, the British Academy, and the Screen Actors Guild, and going into the nominations was the indisputable frontrunner. *But* it wasn't nominated for best director, and only four movies in Academy history have won picture without director (and two of those were in the first five years of the Oscars, in which they were still figuring out what they even were). Plus, Billboards is...polarizing. It'll get plenty of #1 votes, but it'll get plenty of #9 votes too.
Get Out and Lady Bird are in the same boat--they're both well-loved and respected, and it's tough to imagine anyone ranking them too low on their ballots, so they could easily capitalize on the preferential ballot system. *But* neither were nominated for any below the line categories, and only five movies in Academy have won in a similar situation. Add to this the general rule that best picture winners have to be nominated for film editing, and these two have another hurdle. And as if that weren't enougb, Get Out only has four total nominations, which would make it the best picture with the fewest total nominations since 1933. Plus both have subject matter that's inherently not Academy-friendly--Lady Bird is a high school movie about teenage girls, and Get Out is a racially charged horror-comedy.
Finally, Dunkirk could coast through by being inoffensive and impressive, *but* it wasn't nominated for either screenplay or acting awards, and only Grand Hotel in 1932 won best picture without support from either of those branches.

So what's the lesson of that big wall o' text? All of the top competitors would be far-fetched as winners (and the other four have the same obstacles, plus others still), but somebody's got to win. So who takes it? Absolutely no idea. Smart money is probably on The Shape of Water or Three Billboards, but the past few years of Oscars have established a trend of big movies winning a boatload of Oscars but losing best picture to a smaller competitor (Gravity won 7 but lost best picture to 12 Years a Slave, Mad Max won 6, The Revenant won 3, but Spotlight took picture, La La Land won 6 but Moonlight took the top prize, etc.)--and all of that speaks well for Get Out and Lady Bird. It's a total toss-up.

Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth

Man, Get Out is absolutely not winning. What a silly prediction I've just made.

Director
The nominees:
Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of  Water
Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
Jordan Peele-Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread

Here's something much easier--Del Toro's got all the momentum, Shape of Water's arguably one of the biggest (or most flashy) 'directorial' achievements in the category, and he's at a point in his career where people want to acknowledge the great work he's been doing for years. Some people have whispered about a Nolan upset, but I honestly think Gerwig or Peele would be more likely.

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water
Could Win: Jordan Peele-Get Out
Should Win: Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name

Actress
The nominees:
Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Meryl Streep-The Post

The narrative for all four acting categories is the same: the same person has won every televised award (critics choice, golden globes, screen actors guild, british academy)--the first time this has ever happened. So pick anyone other than those four winners at your own peril. In this category, that means McDormand takes the cake. It's a shame--this category looked to be so competitive at the beginning of the season, and it certainly should have stayed that way, but everything just stagnated.

Will Win: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth

Actor
The nominees:
Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Oldman's the one to beat here. I wish Chalamet could upset (as seemed much more likely in December), but he'll have to content himself with being the youngest best actor nominee since the 30s.

Will Win: Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Should Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name*
Should Have Been Here: James McAvoy-Split

*I haven't seen Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Lesley Manville-Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water

Janney's in the pole position, with Metcalf snapping at her heels and Manville hoping to sneak between the two.

Will Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird (look, Janney's going to win, but I just can't predict those top four, and this category feels like the likeliest place for an upset)
Could Win: Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Another snoozefest--Rockwell wins.

Will Win: Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Have Been Here: Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name

Original Screenplay
The nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

One of the closest races of the year, and one to keep an eye on for clues to best picture. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards have been locked at the top for months, and each could conceivably walk away with it. Slight advantage goes to either Get Out (if they want to reward the movie somewhere, this is the easiest place to do it) or Three Billboards (a very verbose, flashy script, plus best picture heat).

Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

This should be an easy call--Call Me is the only best picture nominee, has been universally praised for its script, and was written by James Ivory, a monumentally important director of the 80s and 90s who 89 and as-of-yet Oscarless. Still, part of me worries whether Call Me is too divisive or off-putting to straight voters, leaving a hole for Mudbound's fans to slip through. Still, Call Me is definitely the odds-on frontrunner.

Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth

Production Design
The nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Tight race between Blade Runner and Water, with the latter probably pulling in more votes due to its beloved/BP nominee status. As long as those Beauty and the Beast hate crime visuals don't win, I'll be happy.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: War for the Planet of the Apes

Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Phantom Thread seems like the easy call--a movie about fashion in which the costumes are front and center--but if Shape of Water is going to sweep, look for this category to be an early indication. And there's always the chance that voters lose their minds and go for Beauty and the Beast, just to spite me.

Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread*
Should Have Been Here: Blade Runner 2049

*I haven't seen Victoria and Abdul

Visual Effects
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

The poor Apes franchise is always a bridesmaid and never an Oscar winner, and this might be the year they can rectify that, but I'd imagine that love for Blade Runner's eye-popping visuals will carry the day.

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: Thor: Ragnarok

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder

Darkest Hour wins, no contest.

Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Wonder
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Darkest Hour)

Film Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Conventional wisdom that suggests that this category is a place for the eventual best picture winner gets thrown out the window today as Water and Billboards take the back seat. Will voters warm more to the fractured timelines and war action of Dunkirk or the impeccably choreographed mayhem of Baby Driver? Tough question. Smart money's probably on Dunkirk, but...

Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: Lady Bird

Cinematography
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Roger Deakins, arguably the greatest living cinematographer, has been nominated 14 times for an Oscar without a win, and this year's work on Blade Runner seems like his best chance in a looooong time to finally take home a little gold man. Still, both Dunkirk and Shape of Water feature arresting visuals in more widely loved movies, so he's definitely not safe.

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: All These Sleepless Nights

Original Score
The nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I'd love to see Johnny Greenwood/Phantom Thread come out on top, but it'll probably Hollywood composer royalty Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water. If Water loses here, look for it to lose just about everywhere else too.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Here: Wonderstruck

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

This is a to-the-wire race between Baby Driver and Dunkirk, with Shape of Water as a possible dark horse if the movie begins to steamroll.

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: mother!

Sound Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Same nominees, same argument.

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Have Been Here: mother!

Original Song
The nominees:
"Mighty River"-Mudbound
"Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me"-Coco
"Stand Up for Something"-Marshall
"This is Me"-The Greatest Showman

Dead heat between Coco/former winners for Frozen and The Greatest Showman/former winners for La La Land. Could Mudbound or Call Me capitalize on the close race/their respective status as major nominees in other categories and pull of an upset? Probably not, but who knows?

Will Win: "This is Me"-The Greatest Showman
Could Win: "Remember Me"-Coco
Should Win: "Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: "Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name

Animated Film
The nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Coco wins, in the easiest call of the night.

Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Loving Vincent
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Coco and The Boss Baby)

Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
A Fantastic Woman-Chile
The Insult-Lebanon
Loveless-Russia
On Body and Soul-Hungary
The Square-Sweden

Impossible to say--this seems like a legit five-way race. Loveless is arguably the biggest and most significant, The Square was the odds-on frontrunner at the beginning of the season, The Insult seems like the kind of big, emotionally open traditional winner, On Body and Soul is one of the most unique, and A Fantastic Woman hit at just the right time and captured the zeitgeist. So throw a dart or something.

Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Should Win: Abstain (haven't seen any of these, sadly)

Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Also tough to call. Last Men and Strong Island are emotionally resonant, Icarus is timely (it's about the Russian Olympic doping scandal), and Faces Places was made by French New Wave legend Agnes Varda, who's never won a competitive Oscar.

Will Win: Icarus
Could Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Last Men in Aleppo)


So that's that. By my predictions, The Shape of Water wins the most of the night (Director, Production Design, Original Score), but Get Out squeaks through to be the smallest best picture winner in 80 years. I'm probably wrong, right? We'll find out tonight!




Aaaaaand here's an extra bonus post! Note--feel free to check out here. I thought about doing this as a separate post, but decided to minimize the number of times I assault your facebook feed. As a nice summary of the year, and as a reminder that, despite my preocuppation with them, The Oscars aren't the be-all end-all of the cinematic year, underneath you'll find my anti-Oscar ballot. The only rule: I can't nominate anything that was nominated for an Oscar. What you'll find is that the cinematic talent displayed this year runs deep, and even if the Academy made some good choices, there is still a massive pool of accomplished artists who didn't aren't getting the attention they deserve.

So here we go! No commentary, no rankings--just alphabetical nominees, with winners in bold.

The Anti-Oscars

Best Picture
BPM
Casting JonBenet
The Florida Project
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Lady Macbeth
mother!
Nocturama
Raw
The Work

Director
Darren Aronofsky-mother!
Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
William Oldroyd-Lady Macbeth
Denis Villeneuve-Blade Runner 2049

Actress
Gal Gadot-Wonder Woman
Vicky Krieps-Phantom Thread
Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
Kristen Stewart-Personal Shopper
Michelle Williams-All the Money in the World

Actor
James McAvoy-Split
Robert Pattinson-Good Time
Nahuel Perez Biscayart-BPM
Jeremy Renner-Wind River
Arnoid Valois-BPM

Supporting Actress
Naomie Ackie-Lady Macbeth
Betty Gabriel-Get Out
Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip
Bria Vinaite-The Florida Project
Allison Williams-Get Out

Supporting Actor
Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sebastian Stan-I, Tonya
Patrick Stewart-Logan
Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me by Your Name

Original Screenplay
BPM
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Nocturama
Personal Shopper
Phantom Thread

Adapted Screenplay
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
The Lost City of Z
Thor: Ragnarok
Wonder Woman

Production Design
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Thor: Ragnarok
War for the Planet of the Apes

Costume Design
Atomic Blonde
The Beguiled
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
Wonder Woman

Visual Effects
Alien: Covenant
Dunkirk
Okja
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Thor: Ragnarok

Makeup
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Raw

Film Editing
Get Out
Good Time
Lady Bird
Logan Lucky
Nocturama

Cinematography
All These Sleepless Nights
The Beguiled
Call Me by Your Name
Lady Macbeth
The Wound

Original Score
Darkest Hour
Good Time
Logan
Mudbound
Wonderstruck

Sound Mixing
Atomic Blonde
The Florida Project
The Lost City of Z

mother!

Nocturama

Sound Editing
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Phantom Thread
Raw
Thor: Ragnarok

Original Song
"The Greatest Show"-The Greatest Showman
"Never Enough"-The Greatest Showman
"Proud Corazon"-Coco
"Re-Write the Stars"-The Greatest Showman
"Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name

(...so I liked The Greatest Showman. Dealwithit.)

Best of 2017, part 3: Acting/Directing/Screenplays

I know, I know, I am absolutely bombarding you with blog posts in the past two days, but I'm desperately thrashing around like a particularly verbose and dying fish, doing my best to get a little bit of cinematic closure before the Oscars tonight--and you all are my hapless victims. But hey, if you're still clicking on these, then the help you need is beyond my power to give. Think about what you're doing.

Funny thing about my relationship with writing about movies: I can write 1,000 words on why the red hotel room in Atomic Blonde is absolutely essential if we are to continue as a species, but if I'm pressed to write about the 'big' categories, i.e. acting, writing, directing, it feels like pulling teeth (not necessarily my own) trying to get myself to write anything more lucid than 'hey, wow, Meryl Streep's not bad, right? Did you see that thing she did with her face? It made water (but only part of it)! Amazing!' And unfortunately for all of us, all I've got left to write about this year (at least as far as big lists are concerned) are the very categories that I've no idea how to address.

So here's the deal: I played around with this post for hours, and just couldn't come up with a compelling way to really present it--I felt fairly list-drained, believe it or not, and didn't want to inflict sub-par work on all of you. So instead, I've decided to just rattle off my top five and provide some basic commentary for the category as a whole. This makes for a streamlined reading experience for you, and didn't require me to spend my next five hours racking my brain trying to come up with a longer (but still readable) version. If you're curious for more in-depth thoughts about anything you see here, don't hesitate to ask!

Best Actress
5. Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
4. Meryl Streep-The Post
3. Vicky Krieps-Phantom Thread
2. Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
1. Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird

Honorable mention: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

A whole flotilla of great work--Margot Robbie convinced me that her opinion of her (charismatic but relatively talentless) was horribly wrong, Meryl Streep gave her best performance in a decade, and Krieps and Pugh gave titanic performances that should catapult them both to the stratosphere. But my love for Lady Bird is well-documented, and I couldn't resist Ronan's climbing narrative as the best young working actress.


Actor
5. Jeremy Renner-Wind River
4. Daniel Kaluuya-Split
3. James McAvoy-Split
2. Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
1. Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name

Honorable mention: Robert Pattinson-Good Time

Lots to note here--genre emphasis (two horror roles, one villain and one victim, and a western), and Daniel Day-Lewis' alleged last performance--but there's really only room for Chalamet's massive and unavoidable coming out as a huge talent and future star. The sky's the limit for the kid, and I hope his career from here is as big as his obvious talent deserves.

Supporting Actress

5. Naomie Ackie-Lady Macbeth

4. Allison Williams-Get Out

3. Betty Gabriel-Get Out

2. Tiffany Haddisch-Girls Trip

1. Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird

Big shout-out here to the unsung Get Out girls, without whom the movie couldn't function--imagine it without Allison Williams' perfectly calculated periods of warmth and coldness, or the way Betty Gabriel reinvented the word 'no.' And what kind of year would it be without Tiffany Haddish's mischievously cocked eyebrow right before she explains where she keeps her drugs? This is a great category (maybe the best of the acting categories?), but someone had to come out on top, and Metcalf created one of the most fully realized and tetchily human movie mothers ever, so here we are.

Supporting Actor
5. Sebastian Stan-I, Tonya
4. Barry Keoghan-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
3. Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me by Your Name
2. Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
1. Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name

Honorable mention: Patrick Stewart-Logan

The big story is of course the tragically oscar-less Call Me boys (seriously, how did the Academy sleep on this?), but that shouldn't overshadow a career re-defining performance from Sebastian Stan, or the utter weirdness that Keoghan brings to his balefully sociopathic teenager in The Killing of a Sacred Deer.


Director
5. Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread
4. William Oldroyd-Lady Macbeth
3. Darren Aronofsky-mother!

2. Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name

1. Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird

Honorable mention: Yorgos Lanthimos-The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Another stellar category, and I had one hell of a time picking a winner--I played with having every one of these five take the cake. It was awfully tempting to reward Aronofsky's gleeful and unswerving 'my way' approach to mother!, but ultimately I had to go with one of the helmers of what I called two of the best movies of the decade on Friday, with Gerwig inching Guadagnino out by a hair. I could give it to Guadagnino for his visual panache or his obvious talent with actors, but I decided to side with Gerwig's sharp eye and world-sized heart.

Original Screenplay
5. Phantom Thread
4. Nocturama
3. The Killing of a Sacred Deer
2. Get Out
1. Lady Bird

Honorable mention: BPM (120 Beats per Minute)

In another year, any of these five could have taken the top spot-Phantom Thread's wild sense of humor, Nocturama's terse politics, Killing's jaw-dropping bizarreness, or *especially* Get Out's adept handling of ten different genres and tones. But I figure I've praised Lady Bird enough in the past few days for you to get where this was going.

Adapted Screenplay
5. Thor: Ragnarok
4. The Lost City of Z
3. Logan
2. Lady Macbeth
1. Call Me by Your Name

Honorable mention: Blade Runner 2049

A weirdly franchise/tent-pole heavy category, but they earned it--we'll all be quoting Thor for the next five years, and Logan ripped its genre apart and built it up again from scratch (sidebar: have I mentioned that Logan getting nominated for its screenplay is arguably my favorite Oscar nomination this year? At least in the sense of improbable but totally deserving). But, like with Lady Bird, I've gotten all weepy with praise over Call Me by Your Name lately that all of you already knew how this would turn out.



And believe it or not (and I've a sneaking suspicion you'll believe it), that's a wrap on big list posts for the year. Sometime today or tomorrow I'll bang out some last minute Oscar predictions, but this is where we start to say goodbye to 2017 as a cinematic year (he says, fully aware that it's March, and everyone else stopped thinking about these movies months ago).

For those playing along at home, here are the movies that showed up most frequently in these lists:

Call Me by Your Name-9
Phantom Thread-8
Lady Macbeth-7
Get Out-7
Lady Birth-6
mother!-5
Nocturama-5
Blade Runner 2049-5

As for the most wins, it was a duel to the death between Call Me and Lady Bird (much like plenty of these lists), with Call Me emerging victorious in the end. On the craft end, Phantom Thread, Blade Runner 2049, and Baby Driver hogged more than their share of the spotlight.

Call Me by Your Name-Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Song
Lady Bird-Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Blade Runner 2049-Production Design, Visual Effects, Cinematography
Phantom Thread-Costume Design, Original Score
Baby Driver-Film Editing, Sound Mixing


And there's another year gone! Looking forward to see what the next 9 months brings to the movies.

Best of 2017, part 2: Craft Categories

Another day, another crushingly wrong list I've created in my ongoing quest to find new and more terrible ways to brutalize the people who feel compelled by whatever dark monsters in their head to keep clicking on these posts. Hooray for us! Tradition dictates that today's post would be about acting, or directing, or writing, or any of those more well-known cinematic enterprises that people normally tend to care about. But I've decided to buck tradition (not least because I wrote the bulk of this post without access to the internet) and write what I find more compelling--all the craft aspects of filmmaking that never get their due among the moviegoing masses. The artistry that goes into creating a movie is mind-buckling and vast, and I love all of it. Why would I want to try and come up with something nice to say about Gary Oldman when I could spend the next two hours gushing about the sound effects in Phantom Thread? I am who I am.

In interest of putting a face on some of these things, I have finally added visual aids to this list--something I've always wanted to do. Granted, they don't work exactly how I want (I wish you could click the pictures for a bigger version), but I think it's the best we can hope for, considering my limited technical prowess. So here we go! Bask in the luxury of actually being able to see or hear what I'm talking about!

Note: I didn't include pictures or videos for film editing or the sound categories, because I didn't really know how to capture film editing compellingly in a way that didn't waste either my or your time, and I didn't have the resources to make audio clips for the sound categories (which I would have loved to do).

Note Note: I've included a brief description of some categories, in case you need a couple signposts for what i"m talking about. 

Production Design

(designing, creating, and building the world of the movie--sets, props, art direction, etc.)

5. Atomic Blonde-for a hedonistic, Schumacher-esque neon Berlin hellscape, dripping with blood, sweat, and secrecy.

sourcce

4. War for the Planet of the Apes-you’d think I’d be tired of cinematic dystopias by now (and you wouldn’t be wrong), but the ice palace hotels, arboreal hideaways, and Bosch-inspired army camps won me over.

3. mother!-If you’re going to ask one house to stand in for all of creation, it needs to be one hell of a house—and the one in mother! certainly is, equal parts feigned Better Homes and Gardens and oozing crimson pits.

2. The Shape of Water-I really didn’t get the appeal of this movie like the rest of the world apparently did, but I can’t deny its green-is-the-future Baltimore, replete with fairy tale laboratories and time machine cinemas.

1. Blade Runner 2049-Come on, what else would I have put here? The original Blade Runner is one of the signature design achievements in all of cinema, so the new one had some shoes to fill; the fact that its grungy, neo-noir world delighted when it could have so *easily* disappointed is something of a minor miracle.

Honorable mention: God planets and angry little ships in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Costume Design

5. Wonder Woman-arguably on the strength of that blue dress alone, but also for Diana’s London tomboy chic, and Glamazon battle-gear that is both battlefield and runway-ready.

4. Atomic Blonde-speaking of runways—the East German pawn shop of your dreams comes to slinking life, bedecking the spies and runaways of another world to resemble the dizzy daydreams of themselves they carry in their heads.

source

3. Lady Macbeth-an exercise in vivid character-defining minimalism: each figure gets one or two costumes tops, so the designer has to make them speak. And speak they do: is it possible to imagine the titular bloodthirsty housewife without her dresses shaped like prisons?

2. Blade Runner 2049-feel free to copy and paste what I wrote in the last entry and apply it to clothes. Harrison Ford’s ‘screw it, I tried’ t-shirt notwithstanding, the lifestyles of the synthetic and infamous all look like rack-ready options in a fashion show in Phillip K. Dick’s nightmares.

1. Phantom Thread-again, what else could possibly have taken the top spot other than Paul Thomas Anderson’s ode to clothes as a language? We should all be so lucky to have Daniel Day-Lewis (or costume designer Mark Bridges) dressing us in the kinds of outfits hand-picked to reveal our hidden selves in the mirror.

Honorable mention: deceptively steamy Southern formalwear in The Beguiled

Visual Effects

(Both practical effects--e.g. things created in-camera--and CGI (animating, compositing, modeling, etc.)

5. Okja-for making the titular super-pig tangible and touchable—a real feat of emotional and character-based CG heavy lifting.

4. Thor: Ragnarok-somewhere, last year, a team of dedicated men and women with art degrees had to spend a significant portion of their week deciding how to animate the Hulk’s naked ass, and I think they need to be commended for that.

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2-sure, Groot and Rocket are always a well-rendered treat, but what about that swarm of mind-controlled, bee-like spaceships, or Michael Rooker’s vindictive and playful arrow? Great stuff all around.

2. War for the Planet of the Apes-the artists behind these series have painted themselves into a corner, in that we now casually expect such photorealistic excellence from them that it’s now come to seem commonplace when they deliver exactly that. And sure, the visuals in this latest Apes movie aren’t reinventing the wheel, but when the wheel already looks like this, why would you need to?

1. Blade Runner 2049-are the visual effects here as technically impressive as the War for the Planet of the Apes gang? Arguably not, but good grief how they linger—that double hologram love scene, or the jagged cityscapes, or that haunted encounter between K and Joi on the bridge. The effects team on Blade Runner didn’t come to make friends—they came to leave a vibrant and bloody hand print across this movie’s forehead.

Honorable mention: Eh, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, I guess, if only for that final color-saturated battle on the salt planet.

Makeup

3. Atomic Blonde-who doesn’t want to hire these stylists after watching Charlize Theron romp around Berlin looking like a power-hungry CEO/lady of the night?

2. Raw-look, I’m not saying that I would ever eat my siblings’ fingers or my significant other’s leg, but if I did, I’d kind of hope it looks like the frenzied edible delights served up here on a bloody platter.

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2-I’m always a sucker for well-executed sci-fi in this category, and this year’s no exception. Elizabeth Debicki pancake head! Taser-face! Little ladies that look like bugs! Now they’re speaking my language.

Honorable mention: the fast and loose Olympic train-wrecks in I, Tonya.

Film Editing

(Cutting--generally responsible for a film's pace, continuity, keeping the audience focused on the right details, and keeping a consistent emotional and visual tone.)

5. Logan Lucky-see, Christopher Nolan? This is how you do competing time lines and perspectives—like your life depends on it, not because you just can.

4. Get Out-a movie that vacillates this wildly between comedy, violence, and drama shouldn’t feel as tonally consistent and narratively tight as it does, and yet here we are—kudos to the editor for managing to tame what must have been an impossible-to-tame movie.

3. Lady Bird-I’ve already waxed effusive about how much Lady Bird packs into its brisk running time, but seriously HOW did they pack this much character detail, wit, and heart into 90 minutes without it feeling like a whirlwind sprint? Crazy.

2. Nocturama-the movie whose editing most made me blink my eyes in disbelief. Nocturama giddily leaves editing norms behind: scenes repeat for no apparent reason, time jumps forward and backward by seconds or hours, and all of this happens without losing one iota of the film’s claustrophobic tension.

1. Baby Driver-this is arguably a feat of choreography as much as anything else, but it’s such a feat of everything that I can’t deny it. Edgar Wright’s latest opus choreographs each action scene—down to individual movements and sounds!—to match to its soundtrack, creating a perfectly controlled rat-a-tat-tat musical tragicomedy of errors. Wrangling such a woolly film into such swiss-watch precision must have been a herculean exercise.

Honorable mention: scenes like piano wires and pipe bombs in Good Time

Cinematography

(Essentially how pretty a movie is. Lighting, composition, camera choreography, etc.)

5. Hoyte Van Hoytema-Dunkirk-ugh, FIIIIIIIIINE Christopher Nolan, take this stupid nomination for this stupid pretty movie. This doesn’t let the movie off the hook—it’s still needlessly showboat-y and contentless, despite its arresting compositions.

4. Ari Wegner-Lady Macbeth-dazzling brights and even more glaring darks, Lady Macbeth is nothing if not eye-catching: an entire world tuned a little too brightly and situated too symmetrically to be comfortable.

3. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom-Call Me by Your Name-the sun-dappled Italy of every world-weary teenager’s dreams, a world in sepia punctuated by deep blue nightscapes and gossamer lace windowpanes.

2. Michal Marczak, Maciej Twardowski-All These Sleepless Nights-how have I not mentioned this movie yet? A Polish pseudo-documentary (in that the filmmakers said ‘hey, let’s just carry a camera around with our friends’) that disrupts its own faux-verisimilitude with sporadic dance-breaks, fourth wall breaking performances, and the improbable twilight mosaics of Warsaw streets.

1. Roger Deakins-Blade Runner 2049-I may or may not be running out of ways to praise this movie’s visuals, so just go watch a trailer. It’s really pretty. Roger Deakins is a demigod. We can all agree on this, right?

Honorable mention: quiet, malevolent tapestries in The Beguiled

Original Score

5.  Marco Beltrami-Logan-lilting mournful piano melodies and adrenaline-fueled Ennio Morricone-esque trumpet and harmonica riffs: Beltrami operating in his comfort zone (the Western) is always worth listening to.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Be1HdTnSGZo

4. Dario Marianelli-Darkest Hour-a propulsive and urgent engine to drive a movie about words, all arpeggio pistons and scales cascading like steam.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjAINmH4Vs

3. Hans Zimmer-Dunkirk-how much of this movie's success is due to its claustrophobic, nauseating nightmare soundcloud of a score? A pretty significant bit, I'd wager--Zimmer's full-on assault on the senses raked a rusty nail across my brain pan in a way that the rest of the movie couldn't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1VJ39nVIBk

2. Carter Burwell-Wonderstruck-What a multi-faceted thing this soundtrack is, tripping lightly from comfortingly Burwellian warm and weirdly orchestrated chamber pieces to silent era-inspired organ riffs. It's gorgeous work that deserves a more compelling movie around it.

(for some reason, the score just isn't on youtube, but here's a five-minute preview of its various tracks, if you want a taste of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewAxfbB5xeI)

1. Johnny Greenwood-Phantom Thread-What an absolutely perfect and totally ravaging piece of movie music--Greenwood's compositions mimic the shrieking violins and big weepy strings of 50s melodramas, but infuse them with their own slippery, subversive skin, which makes the music go down like pieces of candy dipped in raw egg. Perfect for what the movie itself is--sickly romantic, furiously funny, and just a little bit uncomfortable.

(I couldn't pick just one track from this score--seriously, just go take an hour and listen to the whole thing--so here's one track that really brings home the more unsettled elements of the score: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjw9AbHFMow

And here's the score at its lushest and most lovely: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT_XjcdgT6g)

Honorable mention: Daniel Lopatin's driving electro work on Good Time

Sound Mixing

(Blending the four elements of movie sound--dialogue, ambient noise, sound effects, music--into one cohesive and compelling track.)

5. The Lost City of Z-the everyday business of listening to your sanity wander through the jungle, all echoing, stentorian silences and earthy hums.

4. Nocturama-as weird and tight-lipped a mix as this movie deserves, weaponizing silence, pop music, and the timid little bumps in the night that signify that someone's been shot.

3. Dunkirk-livid shrieks from beasts of war, coupled with Zimmer's deathgrip of a score and the ever-present sonic presence of the waves.

2. mother!-arguably for that final rush of chaos in the last 20 minutes, but also for everything that comes before--the way the movie makes its audience lean forward to listen to the way the house breathes.

1. Baby Driver-I mentioned earlier how this movie precisely choreographs everything in it to fit to the music, and sound is perhaps its best tool for that--I legitimately just cannot get over how much work went in to making this movie happen just the way it did.

Note: I feel like what I'm talking about--the choreography, etc.--is maybe hard to visualize if you haven't seen this movie, so watch this scene and see what I mean (Stop around 3.30 if you don't want big spoilers for the movie):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsWJ3aSa3ts

(Sidebar: how is no one talking about the fact that the camerapeople hired for this movie were clearly olympians?)

(Side-Sidebar: in an alternate universe, Ansel Elgort got nominated for an Oscar for this performance, and it's not even that bad of an alternate universe.)

Honorable mention: crystalline action and frozen cities in Atomic Blonde

Sound Editing

(Creating the sound effects for a film--all the things that need to be added in post-production.)

5. Raw-Want to know what casually chewing on a finger sounds like? You probably don't, but Raw's going to make sure you're going to bath in the spongy smacking glory of it all.

4. Blade Runner 2049-isolated cityscape howls, choking and guttural ship engines, and a malevolent ocean where each wave arrives like thunder.

3. Phantom Thread-impossibly loud knives against toast like nails on a chalkboard, whispered rushes of different fabrics, and the quiet simmering of rage-filled skillets seasoned with bemused affection.

2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi-I'm always such a sucker for this series in the category, but who am I to turn down plucky little one-legged speeders, lightsabers on futuristic staves, and that perfect moment of nothing?

1. mother!-for that sound, a horrific and resonating little click, for the chem trails of panic that surround it, and for a house that speaks in its own dust-choked voice.

Honorable mention: space battles straight out of an 80s arcade in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Original Song

5. "This Is Me"-The Greatest Showman-How do I turn down this vaguely authoritarian self-empowerment anthem? During this exquisitely caterwauled yawp to the heavens, the audience is going to learn to love themselves OR ELSE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEJd2RyGm8Q

4. "Re-Write the Stars"-The Greatest Showman-Look, I'm just not strong enough to resist The Greatest Showman, a monumental morass of cheese and glitter if ever there was one. And the day I stop loving Zac Efron and Zendaya singing on a trapeze is the day you need to come to my apartment and quietly and humanely destroy me.

(Also, this makes me realize that somehow I didn't put this scene on my best of the year list, and HOW COULD I--nothing in the cinema this year made me feel the same giddy joy as watching Zac Efron whoosh around in suspenders trying to convince Zendaya to take a leap of faith and jump onto his bones. Who wouldn't see stars?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdjR2lvIfJ4

3. "Proud Corazon"-Coco-"Remember Me" has kind of stolen all the air in the room as far as the Coco soundtrack is concerned, and sure, it's the movie's anthem, but this song and this scene had me weeping actual buckets in the theater.

(Here's the whole scene that had me sobbing like a pudgy little baby--it's the very last scene of the movie, so maybe don't watch the video and just listen to the music if you don't want spoilers:
https://www.youtube. com/watch?v=yoX88L5Ig7Y)

2. "Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name-the second I heard Sufjan Stevens--my all time favorite singer, the guy who made me cry with the first four notes he played when I saw him in concert--was writing songs for the movie adapted from my favorite book, I knew he'd be taking the top spot in this category, whether i wanted him to or not. And then lo and behold, he wrote two songs for the movie, so he gets to be here twice. "Mystery of Love" is classic Sufjan, delicate plucking that grows and swells (but never too much).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0CP9zpbmAQ

1. "Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name-if the last shot of the movie, over which this song plays, didn't emotionally wreck you, then I don't know how to help you. The song's a perfect capper to the movie, capturing everything said and unsaid.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJLs-4J5ZYk

Honorable mention: the aforementioned Coco anthem "Remember Me"

And there we have it! I'm sure I'll return later today to finish all the categories I've missed (namely, the ones people care about), but I'm gonna go ahead and give you (and me) a break for the moment.