Final Oscar Predictions: Better Late than Never

Feeling blogged out yet? No lie, I am too (still shocked that I can hit a point where I feel like I've talked too much about movies), but this is what I get for leaving all of my movie-writing compulsions to the last second, and now I get to visit my procrastinating sins on all of you. For all of our sakes, I'll try to keep this brief-ish, but wild horses couldn't keep me from writing about Oscars (even if they had swords). I've been breathlessly predicting Oscars since the beginning of high school, and the day that I stop wanting to word-vomit into the ether about the Oscars is the day that I have permanently died on the inside. So I'm jumping back onto my keyboard (for the fourth time in three days, which is more than a little excessive), and heaven help anything that stands in my way.


This Oscar season has been a fascinating--by turns chaotic, predictable, and completely wide open. I fully anticipate getting a good half of these wrong. So maybe don't come to this space looking for guidance to win your local Oscar pool. Where's the fun in these things if you don't get to be a bit silly with your predictions? And dammit, I am going to have fun. So gird your loins, cuz it's about to get silly up in here.

Best Picture
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen here--and that's a crazy rarity. There hasn't been a race this open since 2006. And here's the thing: every possible winner is absolutely impossible as a winner, in that every movie that could win has to break some long-standing Oscar statistic.
First thing to know: Best Picture operates on a preferential balloting system, in which voters rank all films from best to worst. To win, a movie has to get 50% of the entire voting body's #1 votes. This more or less can't happen from the initial vote, so after ballots have been tabulated, the movie with the fewest #1 votes is removed, and those ballots are placed into their #2 piles (so if someone voted for Darkest Hour as #1 and Get Out as #2 for instance, and Darkest Hour got the fewest top votes, this person's best picture vote would now be for Get Out). And this process of elimination and redistribution continues until one movie has 50% of the votes. What that means: it's very important to have a passionate fanbase, but it's even more important to be widely liked, especially in a year this open. The winner here is probably going to be determined by the #2 and #3 votes on any given ballot.

So what do we have?
The Shape of Water won the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Critics Choice awards, is widely loved, and has the most nominations. *But* it wasn't nominated for the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award--which doesn't seem like a big deal, unless you know that only one movie in the history of the awards has won best picture without that nomination (this stat was an early signpost that La La Land would lose last year, despite its monolithic frontrunner status).
Three Billboards won the Golden Globes, the British Academy, and the Screen Actors Guild, and going into the nominations was the indisputable frontrunner. *But* it wasn't nominated for best director, and only four movies in Academy history have won picture without director (and two of those were in the first five years of the Oscars, in which they were still figuring out what they even were). Plus, Billboards is...polarizing. It'll get plenty of #1 votes, but it'll get plenty of #9 votes too.
Get Out and Lady Bird are in the same boat--they're both well-loved and respected, and it's tough to imagine anyone ranking them too low on their ballots, so they could easily capitalize on the preferential ballot system. *But* neither were nominated for any below the line categories, and only five movies in Academy have won in a similar situation. Add to this the general rule that best picture winners have to be nominated for film editing, and these two have another hurdle. And as if that weren't enougb, Get Out only has four total nominations, which would make it the best picture with the fewest total nominations since 1933. Plus both have subject matter that's inherently not Academy-friendly--Lady Bird is a high school movie about teenage girls, and Get Out is a racially charged horror-comedy.
Finally, Dunkirk could coast through by being inoffensive and impressive, *but* it wasn't nominated for either screenplay or acting awards, and only Grand Hotel in 1932 won best picture without support from either of those branches.

So what's the lesson of that big wall o' text? All of the top competitors would be far-fetched as winners (and the other four have the same obstacles, plus others still), but somebody's got to win. So who takes it? Absolutely no idea. Smart money is probably on The Shape of Water or Three Billboards, but the past few years of Oscars have established a trend of big movies winning a boatload of Oscars but losing best picture to a smaller competitor (Gravity won 7 but lost best picture to 12 Years a Slave, Mad Max won 6, The Revenant won 3, but Spotlight took picture, La La Land won 6 but Moonlight took the top prize, etc.)--and all of that speaks well for Get Out and Lady Bird. It's a total toss-up.

Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth

Man, Get Out is absolutely not winning. What a silly prediction I've just made.

Director
The nominees:
Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of  Water
Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
Jordan Peele-Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread

Here's something much easier--Del Toro's got all the momentum, Shape of Water's arguably one of the biggest (or most flashy) 'directorial' achievements in the category, and he's at a point in his career where people want to acknowledge the great work he's been doing for years. Some people have whispered about a Nolan upset, but I honestly think Gerwig or Peele would be more likely.

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water
Could Win: Jordan Peele-Get Out
Should Win: Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name

Actress
The nominees:
Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Meryl Streep-The Post

The narrative for all four acting categories is the same: the same person has won every televised award (critics choice, golden globes, screen actors guild, british academy)--the first time this has ever happened. So pick anyone other than those four winners at your own peril. In this category, that means McDormand takes the cake. It's a shame--this category looked to be so competitive at the beginning of the season, and it certainly should have stayed that way, but everything just stagnated.

Will Win: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth

Actor
The nominees:
Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Oldman's the one to beat here. I wish Chalamet could upset (as seemed much more likely in December), but he'll have to content himself with being the youngest best actor nominee since the 30s.

Will Win: Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Could Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name
Should Win: Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name*
Should Have Been Here: James McAvoy-Split

*I haven't seen Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Lesley Manville-Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water

Janney's in the pole position, with Metcalf snapping at her heels and Manville hoping to sneak between the two.

Will Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird (look, Janney's going to win, but I just can't predict those top four, and this category feels like the likeliest place for an upset)
Could Win: Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Another snoozefest--Rockwell wins.

Will Win: Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Win: Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Should Have Been Here: Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name

Original Screenplay
The nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

One of the closest races of the year, and one to keep an eye on for clues to best picture. Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards have been locked at the top for months, and each could conceivably walk away with it. Slight advantage goes to either Get Out (if they want to reward the movie somewhere, this is the easiest place to do it) or Three Billboards (a very verbose, flashy script, plus best picture heat).

Will Win: Get Out
Could Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Lady Bird
Should Have Been Here: The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

This should be an easy call--Call Me is the only best picture nominee, has been universally praised for its script, and was written by James Ivory, a monumentally important director of the 80s and 90s who 89 and as-of-yet Oscarless. Still, part of me worries whether Call Me is too divisive or off-putting to straight voters, leaving a hole for Mudbound's fans to slip through. Still, Call Me is definitely the odds-on frontrunner.

Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
Could Win: Mudbound
Should Win: Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: Lady Macbeth

Production Design
The nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Tight race between Blade Runner and Water, with the latter probably pulling in more votes due to its beloved/BP nominee status. As long as those Beauty and the Beast hate crime visuals don't win, I'll be happy.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: War for the Planet of the Apes

Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Phantom Thread seems like the easy call--a movie about fashion in which the costumes are front and center--but if Shape of Water is going to sweep, look for this category to be an early indication. And there's always the chance that voters lose their minds and go for Beauty and the Beast, just to spite me.

Will Win: Phantom Thread
Could Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread*
Should Have Been Here: Blade Runner 2049

*I haven't seen Victoria and Abdul

Visual Effects
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

The poor Apes franchise is always a bridesmaid and never an Oscar winner, and this might be the year they can rectify that, but I'd imagine that love for Blade Runner's eye-popping visuals will carry the day.

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: Thor: Ragnarok

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder

Darkest Hour wins, no contest.

Will Win: Darkest Hour
Could Win: Wonder
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Darkest Hour)

Film Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Conventional wisdom that suggests that this category is a place for the eventual best picture winner gets thrown out the window today as Water and Billboards take the back seat. Will voters warm more to the fractured timelines and war action of Dunkirk or the impeccably choreographed mayhem of Baby Driver? Tough question. Smart money's probably on Dunkirk, but...

Will Win: Baby Driver
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: Lady Bird

Cinematography
The nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Roger Deakins, arguably the greatest living cinematographer, has been nominated 14 times for an Oscar without a win, and this year's work on Blade Runner seems like his best chance in a looooong time to finally take home a little gold man. Still, both Dunkirk and Shape of Water feature arresting visuals in more widely loved movies, so he's definitely not safe.

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Have Been Here: All These Sleepless Nights

Original Score
The nominees:
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I'd love to see Johnny Greenwood/Phantom Thread come out on top, but it'll probably Hollywood composer royalty Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water. If Water loses here, look for it to lose just about everywhere else too.

Will Win: The Shape of Water
Could Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Should Have Been Here: Wonderstruck

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

This is a to-the-wire race between Baby Driver and Dunkirk, with Shape of Water as a possible dark horse if the movie begins to steamroll.

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Baby Driver
Should Have Been Here: mother!

Sound Editing
The nominees:
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Same nominees, same argument.

Will Win: Dunkirk
Could Win: Baby Driver
Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Have Been Here: mother!

Original Song
The nominees:
"Mighty River"-Mudbound
"Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me"-Coco
"Stand Up for Something"-Marshall
"This is Me"-The Greatest Showman

Dead heat between Coco/former winners for Frozen and The Greatest Showman/former winners for La La Land. Could Mudbound or Call Me capitalize on the close race/their respective status as major nominees in other categories and pull of an upset? Probably not, but who knows?

Will Win: "This is Me"-The Greatest Showman
Could Win: "Remember Me"-Coco
Should Win: "Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Here: "Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name

Animated Film
The nominees:
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Coco wins, in the easiest call of the night.

Will Win: Coco
Could Win: Loving Vincent
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Coco and The Boss Baby)

Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
A Fantastic Woman-Chile
The Insult-Lebanon
Loveless-Russia
On Body and Soul-Hungary
The Square-Sweden

Impossible to say--this seems like a legit five-way race. Loveless is arguably the biggest and most significant, The Square was the odds-on frontrunner at the beginning of the season, The Insult seems like the kind of big, emotionally open traditional winner, On Body and Soul is one of the most unique, and A Fantastic Woman hit at just the right time and captured the zeitgeist. So throw a dart or something.

Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Could Win: The Square
Should Win: Abstain (haven't seen any of these, sadly)

Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Also tough to call. Last Men and Strong Island are emotionally resonant, Icarus is timely (it's about the Russian Olympic doping scandal), and Faces Places was made by French New Wave legend Agnes Varda, who's never won a competitive Oscar.

Will Win: Icarus
Could Win: Faces Places
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Last Men in Aleppo)


So that's that. By my predictions, The Shape of Water wins the most of the night (Director, Production Design, Original Score), but Get Out squeaks through to be the smallest best picture winner in 80 years. I'm probably wrong, right? We'll find out tonight!




Aaaaaand here's an extra bonus post! Note--feel free to check out here. I thought about doing this as a separate post, but decided to minimize the number of times I assault your facebook feed. As a nice summary of the year, and as a reminder that, despite my preocuppation with them, The Oscars aren't the be-all end-all of the cinematic year, underneath you'll find my anti-Oscar ballot. The only rule: I can't nominate anything that was nominated for an Oscar. What you'll find is that the cinematic talent displayed this year runs deep, and even if the Academy made some good choices, there is still a massive pool of accomplished artists who didn't aren't getting the attention they deserve.

So here we go! No commentary, no rankings--just alphabetical nominees, with winners in bold.

The Anti-Oscars

Best Picture
BPM
Casting JonBenet
The Florida Project
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Lady Macbeth
mother!
Nocturama
Raw
The Work

Director
Darren Aronofsky-mother!
Luca Guadagnino-Call Me by Your Name
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
William Oldroyd-Lady Macbeth
Denis Villeneuve-Blade Runner 2049

Actress
Gal Gadot-Wonder Woman
Vicky Krieps-Phantom Thread
Florence Pugh-Lady Macbeth
Kristen Stewart-Personal Shopper
Michelle Williams-All the Money in the World

Actor
James McAvoy-Split
Robert Pattinson-Good Time
Nahuel Perez Biscayart-BPM
Jeremy Renner-Wind River
Arnoid Valois-BPM

Supporting Actress
Naomie Ackie-Lady Macbeth
Betty Gabriel-Get Out
Tiffany Haddish-Girls Trip
Bria Vinaite-The Florida Project
Allison Williams-Get Out

Supporting Actor
Armie Hammer-Call Me by Your Name
Barry Keoghan-The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Sebastian Stan-I, Tonya
Patrick Stewart-Logan
Michael Stuhlbarg-Call Me by Your Name

Original Screenplay
BPM
The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Nocturama
Personal Shopper
Phantom Thread

Adapted Screenplay
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
The Lost City of Z
Thor: Ragnarok
Wonder Woman

Production Design
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Thor: Ragnarok
War for the Planet of the Apes

Costume Design
Atomic Blonde
The Beguiled
Blade Runner 2049
Lady Macbeth
Wonder Woman

Visual Effects
Alien: Covenant
Dunkirk
Okja
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Thor: Ragnarok

Makeup
Atomic Blonde
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Raw

Film Editing
Get Out
Good Time
Lady Bird
Logan Lucky
Nocturama

Cinematography
All These Sleepless Nights
The Beguiled
Call Me by Your Name
Lady Macbeth
The Wound

Original Score
Darkest Hour
Good Time
Logan
Mudbound
Wonderstruck

Sound Mixing
Atomic Blonde
The Florida Project
The Lost City of Z

mother!

Nocturama

Sound Editing
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
mother!
Phantom Thread
Raw
Thor: Ragnarok

Original Song
"The Greatest Show"-The Greatest Showman
"Never Enough"-The Greatest Showman
"Proud Corazon"-Coco
"Re-Write the Stars"-The Greatest Showman
"Visions of Gideon"-Call Me by Your Name

(...so I liked The Greatest Showman. Dealwithit.)

Oscar Nominations: The Future is Now, Old Man

Well, no one would argue that these nominations weren't things that happened. They were...perplexing. Or maybe not? Maybe in a year with so much uplift and uncertainty, it would have seemed fitting to have a nominations morning as tumultuous as all that--but expectations were, by and large, met with little fuss. Granted, there's plenty of weirdness to admire here, and what's even stranger is that the weirdness isn't even on the margins? I said earlier that predicting this year was about trying to predict the kind of group that the Academy wanted to be--and who would have guessed even five years ago that the front-runners this year would be a Jordan Peele-helmed horror comedy that gleefully calls out white liberals, a low-key coming-of-age teenage girl movie, a spiky and brutal Martin McDonagh satire, and a movie from Guillermo del Toro in which Sally Hawkins has sex with a fish? Exciting times we live in. Anyhow--I'm generally (generally) pleased with what I'm looking at here. Some great moments, some awful ones, as per usual. So let's go ahead and unwrap our presents!

Note: I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted, so you can see how I did.

Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name*
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk*
Get Out*
Lady Bird*
Phantom Thread
The Post*
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri*

Both Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour played hard this morning, to somewhat bamboozling effect. Who'd have expected that the Academy would warm to Phantom Thread's "love means literally doing your best to murder your partner" wackiness? Darkest Hour is strange in that it isn't strange--it's exactly the kind of lukewarm Oscar bait you'd have expected to manage a handsome total in the late 90s, but doesn't the presence of things like Get Out and Lady Bird and the rest suggest that we're moving past that era? Some habits die hard, I guess.
Early winner prediction: The Shape of Water

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread

Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water*

Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird*
Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk*
Jordan Peele-Get Out*

This is a lovely batch of nominees. I'm not the biggest fan of either Water or Dunkirk, but I can't pretend to be sad that Del Toro gets his day in the sun, and at least now the Internet can stop complaining about Nolan's Oscarless-ness. And the other three choices are superb--all three made me shout and giggle and generally make my neighbors wonder how I spend my mornings. Interesting that McDonagh (Three Billboards) missed here--maybe it's not the presumptive frontrunner for best picture that I thought it was. Gerwig is now the fifth woman nominated in this category (Lena Wertmüller, Seven Beauties, 1975, Jane Campion, The Piano, 1993, Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation, 2003, Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, 2009), and Jordan Peele becomes the fifth black director nominated (Jon Singleton, Boyz n the Hood, 1991, Lee Daniels, Precious, 2009, Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave, 2013, Barry Jenkins, Moonlight, 2016).
Early winner prediction: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water

Actor
Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name*
Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread*
Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out*
Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour*
Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Another solid lineup--it's a shame that they're all in it to lose to Gary Oldman. Love, *love* that Chalamet got in, and Kaluuya as well. James Franco misses for The Disaster Artist (guess that means no Tommy Wiseau at the Oscars?), and the Academy is probably breathing a sigh of relief, having just sidestepped potential controversy, considering the current allegations against him. More statistics fun: Denzel Washington gets his eighth nomination, which makes him the fifth most nominated actor of all time, and Chalamet, at 22, becomes the third youngest best actor nominee of all time (and the youngest since 1939).
Early winner prediction: Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour

Actress
Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water*
Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri*
Margot Robbie-I, Tonya*
Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird*
Meryl Streep-The Post*

The usual suspects, but I can't complain about any of these performances. Weak sort of morning for both I, Tonya and The Post, which might hurt both actress's chances here--and there was a time when I would have said it was between the two of them for the win. Strange how awards season shakes out.
Early winner prediction: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project*
Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*
Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water*
Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World*
Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*

As per usual, this category manages to be the dullest and most disappointing. I hate, hate, hate that neither of the Call Me by Your Name boys got in. What a waste. Christopher Plummer is now the oldest acting nominee ever for All the Money... at 88.
Early winner prediction: Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige-Mudbound*
Allison Janney-I, Tonya*
Lesley Manvile-Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird*
Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water

Manville is probably the most unexpected nomination of the day--goes to show how much they responded to the movie (or just how much they responded to Manville's upper crust, I'll-cut-you shade).
Early winner prediction: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird

Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out*
Lady Bird*
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*

Great to see The Big Sick find love *somewhere,* though it's strange that neither Phantom Thread nor I, Tonya could muscle their way in here. This category will be one hell of a slugging match for the win, with four of the nominees being within striking distance.
Early winner prediction: Get Out

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name*
The Disaster Artist*
Logan*
Molly's Game*
Mudbound*

Call Me by Your Name! Logan! Great fun to be had here. This is James Ivory's chance (writer of CMBYN, significant filmmaker of the 80s and 90s, has never won an Oscar, and is 89 years old), and no one's taking it from him. Incidentally, Logan becomes the first superhero movie ever nominated for its writing--and a great choice it is. Glad the Academy looked pasted the claws and little boys who can breathe ice to recognize a really tightly written movie.
Early winner prediction: Call Me by Your Name

Production Design
Blade Runner 2049*
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour*
Dunkirk*
The Shape of Water*

Will we ever be free of Disney's CG-heavy live-action monstrosities? I hate Beauty and the Beast (the live action version) with the passion of a thousand burning suns, and seeing it pop up here for its joyless and chaotic design makes me want to swallow my tongue. At least Blade Runner and Water showed up.
Early winner prediction: The Shape of Water

Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast*
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread*
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

As this branch can never pass up a good regal frock, I really should have seen Victoria and Abdul coming (and Darkest Hour too, I suppose). Shame that Blade Runner couldn't crack this lineup, but sci-fi just isn't the costume branch's thing.
Early winner prediction: Phantom Thread

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049*
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi*
War for the Planet of the Apes*

Kong: Skull Island? Sure, why not. Marvel continues its streak of present but minimal representation at the Oscars, and the category in general doubles down on the current franchise culture that's dug its claws into the industry. Somewhat shocking that neither Dunkirk nor The Shape of Water could manage a nod here. In fact, Water's miss here is the only reason it didn't tie the record for most nominated film ever this year (its tally is one shy of the record 14)--but that's for the best, I think. Ask La La Land--nothing screws with a movie's legacy more than when it begins to seem over-rewarded.
Early winner prediction: Blade Runner 2049

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour*
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder

Always a tough category to predict. My biggest takeaway is that now I have to try and see both Victoria and Abdul and Wonder. Booooo. At least they're not making me watch Bright.
Early winner prediction: Darkest Hour

Film Editing
Baby Driver*
Dunkirk*
I, Tonya*
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*

Yay Baby Driver! Not my favorite film of the year by any stretch, but the way it wove itself together, all perfectly organized musical chaos, is one heck of an achievement.
Early winner prediction: Dunkirk

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049*
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk*
Mudbound*
The Shape of Water*

No Call Me..., which sucks, but hey, we had to make some room for lighting Gary Oldman's craggy nightmare face so that he didn't look like the Hulk's testicle, I guess. Rachel Morrison, cinematographer for Mudbound, becomes the first woman ever nominated in this category, and Richard Deakins (Blade Runner) picks up his 14th nomination without a win.

Original Score
Dunkirk*
Phantom Thread*
The Shape of Water*
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*

Academy Award nominee Johnny Greenwood! I was worried for Phantom Thread, but it pulled through here. I know the John Williams slot is an inevitable default, but how odd is it for him to get in for Star Wars rather than The Post? I'll give a shiny new dime to anyone who can hum me four bars of new music from The Last Jedi without looking it up on Youtube first. Incidentally, is this a good place to talk about how far The Post fell? Two months ago I'd have called it to win best picture, and this morning it could only scrape two measly nominations together.
Early winner prediction: The Shape of Water

Sound Mixing
Baby Driver*
Blade Runner 2049*
Dunkirk*
The Shape of Water*
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Silly of me to take Star Wars out of my predictions at the last second. Great to see Baby Driver again--it feels like you can't really nominate its editing without also picking up on its sound.
Early winner prediction: Dunkirk

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049*
Dunkirk*
The Shape of Water*
Star Wars: The Last Jedi*

A rare year in which both sound categories match. I don't think this has happened since the sound editing category expanded from three to five nominees in 2006? Don't quote me on that. Also, here's a good place to note that Wonder Woman wasn't nominated anywhere--shame, that.
Early winner prediction: Dunkirk

Original Song
"Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me"-Coco*
"This is Me"-The Greatest Showman*
"Stand Up for Something"-Marshall*
"Mighty River"-Mudbound*

Academy Award nominee Sufjan Stevens!! I will never stop smiling about this. I nearly fell off my couch when they announced this. Also glad to see the best guilty pleasure of the year (Showman) getting some love. Interesting aside: with this nomination for Mudbound, Mary J. Blige becomes the only person ever nominated for both original song and acting in the same year.
Early winner prediction: "Remember Me"-Coco

Animated Film
The Boss Baby*
The Breadwinner*
Coco*
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent*

Some people may be shocked to see The LEGO Batman Movie miss here, but if the original couldn't make it, I didn't think the sequel would either (which is a shame, considering how fun it is). Can't really speak intelligently to this category--I've only seen Coco.
Early winner prediction: Coco

Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman-Chile
The Insult-Lebanon
Loveless-Russia*
On Body and Soul-Hungary
The Square-Sweden*

Bummer that South Africa's fantastic The Wound couldn't make it, but hooray for A Fantastic Woman, which is spectacular, by all accounts. Also odd for Fatih Akin's In the Fade to miss, as I'd assumed it the frontrunner.
Early winner prediction: A Fantastic Woman-Chile

Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail*
Faces Places*
Icarus*
Last Men in Aleppo*
Strong Island

Everyone has called Jane a done deal to win for months, and now we've got a category without a frontrunner--always interesting. Will this give Agnes Varda (Faces Places) or Steve James (Abacus), two of the most influential documentarians ever, the chance to finally win a competitive Oscar? Fun fact--Strong Island becomes the first movie directed by an out trans director to be nominated oscar. (Note: emphasis on out, or The Matrix would take this title. Or something else?)
Early winner prediction: Faces Places


Note: of the main nominees (i.e. not foreign, animated, or documentary, because most of those never open near me, and I just am not going to be bothered to see The Boss Baby in theaters), I still haven't seen Roman J. Israel, Esq., All the Money in the World, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder, or Marshall. Victoria is next in my netflix cue, and I might go see All the Money... today, but Wonder and Israel both present significant hurdles to me seeing everything before the oscars (both come to Netflix in late February). Still, I'm hopeful--this is the closest I've been to seeing everything before the ceremony in a while (which is still a feat I've managed only once, in 2008).

This wasn't the best year for me as far as predicting goes, but it was a tough year. I managed to nail Actress, Supporting Actor, and Film Editing, but totally fumbled Costume Design, Makeup, and Foreign Language Film.

For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated films:

1. The Shape of Water-13
2. Dunkirk-8
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-7
4. Phantom Thread-6
5. Darkest Hour-6
6. Lady Bird-5
7. Blade Runner 2049-5
8. Get Out-4
9. Call Me by Your Name-4
10. Mudbound-4
11. Star Wars: The Last Jedi-4

What an eclectic gathering of movies on that list--big budget sci fi, horror, queer romance, high school movies, oscar bait-y period dramas, and fish sex (seriously you guys, how did The Shape of Water get this far).

And a list of notable movies that didn't get any nominations at all: Wonder Woman (still surprised by this one), The Beguiled, Stronger, Good Time, Wind River, Battle of the Sexes, In the Fade, BPM, Girls Trip, The Lost City of Z, Murder on the Orient Express, Downsizing, Okja, Wonderstruck, Detroit, mother!, Atomic Blonde, Spider-Man: Homecoming, It, Thor: Ragnarok

Well, you win some, you lose some.

In the meantime, what do y'all think? Good nominations? Bad nominations? Like I said, I'm generally pleased--things certainly could have gone worse.

(Academy Award nominee Sufjan Stevens! Whaaaaaaaaaat.)

Oscar Predictions 2017: We May Be Done with the Past, But the Past Ain't Done with Us

It's that time of year again--that blessed time in which this silly little blog springs fully formed from my head and emerges into your life, ready to poke at things with spears (or maybe to write better Athena metaphors) (does my metaphor cast me as Zeus?) (this was a terrible opening gambit). Sure, the Oscars are a profoundly silly exercise, made even more so by the year-long predicting culture that surrounds them in the glitzier corners of the internet, but hey--this is my kind of silliness, and I've been doing it for too many years now. So, as Hugh Jackman and his cadre of camera-ready circus misfits would giddily shriek, this is me--a sentence in which 'me' means 'an incurable compulsion which I'm going to foist on you, so buckle up."

Longtime readers (who do exist--shout-out to my ever-diminishing but apparently still present Eastern bloc fans) might notice that I'm sticking with last year's streamlined format. For 10 years, Oscar predictions were a week-long, five-post production number, but last year, I decided to squeeze everything into one lightning round dashed out in a desperate frenzy on a train to Würzburg. While I can't reconstruct the heady adventure of typing with a train-enforced time limit, I *can* try and preserve the bit of brevity I recaptured last year. So that's the plan today--throw everything in your lap with one big, defiant, dump (seriously I need to put more thought into my metaphors).

This year presents something of a conundrum for Oscar prognosticators, in that it's no longer quite clear who the Academy is. Since the #Oscarsowhite controversery, Academy leadership has worked hard to create a voting body whose cultural and age diversity more accurately reflects the country at large, and this year, the results are making themselves evident--of the roughly 7.000 members, at least 1.000 have been added in the past two years, most of whom embody the Academy's attempt to invite a fresher, more adventurous set of voices to the table. The result? The phrase 'Oscar bait' (i.e. the kind of movie that seems made to garner awards attention) no longer means what it wants to mean; films that would have been safe bets even five years ago are gasping for air, and films that five years ago would never come within spitting distance of the Dolby theater are fighting for the prize. (Seriously, let's take a minute to acknowledge that the four most muscular awards threats this year were directed by Guillermo del Toro, Martin McDonagh, Greta Gerwig, and Jordan Peele--brave new world, this.)

So long story short--this year isn't just about predicting the nominations. It's about trying to predict who the Academy is, who they want to be, and how that's going to reflect in their annual shower of little gold men. It's about the future, dammit.

Now that I've kicked brevity's teeth in, let's hop in to predictions!

(note: all predictions are presented in order of likelihood.)

Best Picture
Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Get Out
Lady Bird
Dunkirk
Call Me By Your Name
I, Tonya
The Post
The Florida Project
Alternate: The Big Sick

Here's the world as I see it: the top five (Billboards to Dunkirk) are more or less unshakable, and the final five (Post to Sick) are all close enough that none of their omissions would surprise me. As such, I'm banking on nine nominees again--it's the most common number, and this year's support is diffuse enough that we can expect a high number (note: the method to determine the number of nominees is a little too cumbersome to detail now (ask if you're really interested), but it has a lot to do with which films have lots of passionate supporters). I'm especially not confident that Florida gets in, but I'm not any more confident in its competitors, so here we are. If a surprise happens, expect it to come from Mudbound or Phantom Thread. If you *really* want something crazy, predict Darkest Hour or Wonder Woman, but don't bet the farm on it.

Director
Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water
Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
Martin McDonagh-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Jordan Peele-Get Out
Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Alternate: Sean Baker-The Florida Project

The top four slots seem golden, and there is literally no one who seems to make sense for the fifth, so I'm defaulting to Gerwig (note: when I say defaulting, I mean as far as predicting go; if we're talking merit I'd have her win this group in a walk). Sure, maybe the Academy has started to internalize the implications of #metoo and will go for Gerwig, but Lady Bird is a) very 'feminine,' and the directors tend to spring for brutality, b) Lady Bird is quiet, and 'quiet' directors often get pushed to the side in favor of flashy, and c) are they really going to nominate two debut films from actors-turned-directors (the other being Peele/Get Out)?
All that being said, who takes her spot? It's tempting to guess that they go with a wonkier, artsy choice--Baker/Florida or Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name--but Florida is struggling just to stay afloat and I'm having trouble imagining that the Academy will embrace a queer film two years in a row. So what else? Steven Spielberg and The Post? It would be easy--the name makes it easy--but The Post has landed with a thud on the precursor awards circuit, and I've no idea what to make of its chances now. And that leaves us with more, even more far-fetched left-field possibilities like Dee Rees for Mudbound, Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread, or even something crazy like Villeneuve/Blade Runner or Jenkins/Wonder Woman. Really, I've no idea. This is a tough one--which is why I circle back to Gerwig. She makes the most sense in all the chaos.

Actress
Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
Meryl Streep-The Post
alternate: Michelle Williams-All the Money in the World

This quintet calcified months ago, and I don't seen anything rallying enough last minute support to change that. Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul and Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game have their own pockets of support, but not enough to break into the big game. I'm a little tempted to put Williams in there, but who bets against Meryl Streep on Oscar nominations morning?

Actor
Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name
James Franco-The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
Alternate: Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esquire

They can't go for Chalamet, Franco, and Kaluuya all at the same time, right? What a wacky, young category that would be. And yet it's the one that makes sense to me, so I'm sticking with it. Two asides: one, if Chalamet does get nominated, he'll be the youngest since Mickey Rooney's 1939 Babes in Arms nomination (and the third youngest of all time), and two, I hate that Gary Oldman's performance (which I read somewhere described as a 'talking dirigible,' which is perfect) is probably going to win in such a fresh and interesting crowd as this.

Supporting Actress
Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Allison Janney-I, Tonya
Holly Hunter-The Big Sick
Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
Tiffany Haddisch-Girls Trip
Alternate: Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water

Hey, know what's not going to happen? That Haddisch nomination. But I agonized who to put in that final spot, checked my mail to put off choosing, and found a Netflix copy of Girls Trip in my mailbox, so it must be fate. Spencer really is the smart guess, but I'm guessing (or hoping, I suppose), that Water isn't quite as strong as anticipated (though still strong enough for going on with). Look for Hong Chau/Downsizing or Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread to shake things up.

Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World
Alternate: Armie Hammer-Call Me By Your Name

I *hate* not having a Call Me... boy in there but them's the breaks--Hammer's playing a golden gay object of desire (aka the kind of role that doesn't necessarily get awards) and Michael Stuhlbarg may be a little too quiet to pop (again, stupid, but hey). Which leaves Plummer as the last viable candidate standing, and one that sends a message. There's a chance that the Academy springs another one of its out-of-nowhere 'hey, didn't we see Michael Shannon this year? He's nice' nominations for Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water, but good lord I hope not.
(Fun sidebar: there's a slim chance that The Shape of Water becomes the most Oscar-nominated film of all time on Tuesday morning, and if that happens, it happens here with the Shannon nomination. Water's got 15 places where it could score, which is enough to push it over the record held by All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. I haven't seen anyone predicting that it gets 15, but plenty of people are going for a record-tying fourteen. I'm less convinced, but it could certainly happen.)

Original Screenplay
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
I, Tonya
Alternate: The Big Sick

What a crazy, writhing nightmare of a category. Due to the capricious nature of the movie gods, all but one of my predicted nominees for best picture finds itself in this screenplay category--as do a number of viable alternates. This results in a category in which a good 12 valid competitors are mud-wrestling for a skimpy five spots, and *anything* (except Missouri, I guess) could fall out. Sick could easily make it in, as could Phantom Thread or The Post, depending on how strong either of those movies come on. Even something like Darkest Hour could make a play--the margins will be razor-thin, which primes this category for wackiness.

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
Mudbound
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Alternate: Wonder Woman

And here's a different kind of wackiness: what the hell do you predict when there are no best picture contenders in play? There's a whole lurching flotilla possible spoilers: Wonder, All the Money in the World, The Lost City of Z, Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool come to mind. I'm probably silly for picking a couple superhero movies (no superhero movie has ever been nominated for its screenplay), but I am, at times, openly, defiantly silly, and you can't stop me.

Production Design
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Murder on the Orient Express
Alternate: The Post

I feel confident on the top three, but the others not so much. Beauty and the Beast or Phantom Thread could easily spoil, and movies like Wonder Woman or Three Billboards might capitalize here if they're more loved by the Academy than expected.

Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049
The Beguiled
Alternate: The Shape of Water

I've lost my mind here--it's ludicrous not to predict Water, and it's equally ludicrous to predict Blade Runner and The Beguiled. I'm drunk on my own power! I can pick anything I want! I, Tonya and The Post could easily show here, as could Wonder Woman or Victoria and Abdul. 

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
War for the Planet of the Apes
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
Okja
Alternate: Dunkirk

Is it misguided to pick Okja over bigger competitors like Dunkirk or Guardians of the Galaxy? Probably, but I've got a hunch. Note: this category has previously been narrowed down to a 10-wide shortlist by the Academy. The other movies that are still in the running are Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Kong: Skull Island, and Alien: Covenant.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Bright
Alternate: Wonder

Look for Guardians of the Galaxy to jump in here too if the Academy's feeling the Marvel love (which, to be fair, they almost never are). Like Visual Effects, this category's also been previously trimmed down; the other eligible films are Ghost in the Shell and Victoria and Abdul.

Film Editing
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
I, Tonya
Baby Driver
Alternate: Get Out

This category is pretty inextricably tied to best picture, so if you're expecting Lady Bird, Get Out, or something else to make a big play for the big prize, expect to see them pop up here. It might be a bit foolhardy to think the Academy responds to Baby Driver, but I'm hoping that movie's technical prowess is too obvious to pass up.

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Mudbound
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alternate: Darkest Hour

The first three are set--go ahead and throw some darts for the last two. I'd love to see Call Me By Your Name or The Beguiled here, but don't anticipate it. Fun fact: if Mudbound is nominated, its cinematographer, Rachel Morrison, will become the first woman ever nominated in this category--which is the only category left standing at the Oscars that has never had a female nominee.

Original Score
The Shape of Water
The Post
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alternate: Darkest Hour

Always dangerous to bet against John Williams, even if he's got two scores in one year (seriously, the man' got 50 nominations--I'm pretty convinced his name already comes pre-printed on the ballots), but I'm betting The Last Jedi underwhelmed enough voters to allow for the rare Williams miss. Blade Runner and Victoria and Abdul could easily score--always tough to tell with this branch.

Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Baby Driver
Atomic Blonde
Alternate: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

I'm going for a no-guts-no-glory pick here, having Baby Driver and Atomic Blonde over Star Wars, but I have to make my own fun. Both Billboards and Get Out could show up here if the Academy reeeeaaaallly embraces them (and I was tempted to put Billboards here, as I'm expecting something of a Missouri love-in), as could Wonder Woman.

Sound Editing
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonder Woman
Alternate: Baby Driver

Copy and past the arguments from up above--they rarely yield the same nominees, but the rationale behind both sound categories is pretty similar.

Original Song
"Remember Me"-Coco
"This is Me"-The Greatest Showman
"Mighty River"-Mudbound
"Prayers for this World"-Cries from Syria
"Stand Up for Something"-Marshall
Alternate: "Mystery of Love"-Call Me By Your Name

Predicting this category is always an exercise in futility--they love who they love, until they don't, they nominate the big, obvious contenders, until they don't, and they love musicals, until they don't. In that vein, I'm predicting snubs for both the Call Me... songs and the Beauty and the Beast ones, and am anticipating total anarchy. But hey, at least Cher might get nominated, and who doesn't want to see that?

Animated Film
Coco
Loving Vincent
The Breadwinner
In This Corner of the World
The Boss Baby
Alternate: The LEGO Batman Movie

Something interesting with this category this year: normally, only members of the animation branch are allowed to vote to determine the nominees, but for some reason this year it's been opened up to the whole Academy. So who knows how that will effect the outcome? Conventional wisdom suggests that this gives big studio efforts like Ferdinand or Despicable Me a leg-up, but conventional wisdom also suggests that the big studio animation efforts this year were almost uniformly horrible. So I've decided to err in favor of indie and foreign movies--probably a silly choice, but hey.

Foreign Language Film
In the Fade-Germany
The Square-Sweden
Foxtrot-Israel
Loveless-Russia
The Wound-South Africa
Alternate: A Fantastic Woman-Chile

Most of these haven't opened near me, so I've got to go on reputation alone. That said, I'm feeling fairly confident about this group, even if Chile's film has been gaining steam of late. Note: this is another category that already has a pre-selection process that results in a shortlist for nominations. The remaining movies in contention are The Insult (Lebanon), On Body and Soul (Hungary), and Felicité (Senegal).

Documentary Feature
Jane
Faces Places
Strong Island
City of Ghosts
Icarus
Alternate: Last Men in Aleppo

Year in and year out, this is the category for which I can drum up the least interest. Here are predictions! Those are movies! With names!


For those of you following along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting for the most nominations:

The Shape of Water-12
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-9
Dunkirk-8
I, Tonya-6
Blade Runner 2049-6

Incidentally, I know it's silly to devote so much space to predictions without talking about what I want to have happen, but my own best of the year awards are, as always, delayed until February. There are still a few titles I'm waiting for--hopefully they'll come out soon. And if not, I'll make due. But if I could guarantee one nomination, it'd be Sufjan Stevens for Call Me By Your Name's original songs (I just really, really, *really* want Academy Award nominee Sufjan Stevens to be a thing)--but will also throw something out a window if Timotheé Chalamet isn't nominated for Call Me... as well. And if I could prevent one nomination? Part of me wants to say Christopher Nolan in director, just for the ensuing internet riot, but I'll have to go with an out-of-nowhere snub for the Gary Oldman talking dirigible fiasco.

It's been a crazy, volatile year for awards (and otherwise), so I fully anticipate being profoundly, devastatingly wrong here. Oscar nominations come out Tuesday morning--I'll try to churn out some reactions then before I have to run off to class. In the meantime--where'd I go wrong? Have any thoughts? Hunches?