Note: I'll put an asterisk next to the nominees I predicted, so you can see how I did.
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name*
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk*
Get Out*
Lady Bird*
Phantom Thread
The Post*
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri*
Both Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour played hard this morning, to somewhat bamboozling effect. Who'd have expected that the Academy would warm to Phantom Thread's "love means literally doing your best to murder your partner" wackiness? Darkest Hour is strange in that it isn't strange--it's exactly the kind of lukewarm Oscar bait you'd have expected to manage a handsome total in the late 90s, but doesn't the presence of things like Get Out and Lady Bird and the rest suggest that we're moving past that era? Some habits die hard, I guess.
Early winner prediction: The Shape of Water
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread
Guillermo Del Toro-The Shape of Water*
Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird*Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk*
Jordan Peele-Get Out*
This is a lovely batch of nominees. I'm not the biggest fan of either Water or Dunkirk, but I can't pretend to be sad that Del Toro gets his day in the sun, and at least now the Internet can stop complaining about Nolan's Oscarless-ness. And the other three choices are superb--all three made me shout and giggle and generally make my neighbors wonder how I spend my mornings. Interesting that McDonagh (Three Billboards) missed here--maybe it's not the presumptive frontrunner for best picture that I thought it was. Gerwig is now the fifth woman nominated in this category (Lena Wertmüller, Seven Beauties, 1975, Jane Campion, The Piano, 1993, Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation, 2003, Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, 2009), and Jordan Peele becomes the fifth black director nominated (Jon Singleton, Boyz n the Hood, 1991, Lee Daniels, Precious, 2009, Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave, 2013, Barry Jenkins, Moonlight, 2016).
Early winner prediction: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Actor
Timotheé Chalamet-Call Me by Your Name*
Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread*
Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out*
Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour*
Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Another solid lineup--it's a shame that they're all in it to lose to Gary Oldman. Love, *love* that Chalamet got in, and Kaluuya as well. James Franco misses for The Disaster Artist (guess that means no Tommy Wiseau at the Oscars?), and the Academy is probably breathing a sigh of relief, having just sidestepped potential controversy, considering the current allegations against him. More statistics fun: Denzel Washington gets his eighth nomination, which makes him the fifth most nominated actor of all time, and Chalamet, at 22, becomes the third youngest best actor nominee of all time (and the youngest since 1939).
Early winner prediction: Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
Actress
Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water*
Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri*
Margot Robbie-I, Tonya*
Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird*
Meryl Streep-The Post*
The usual suspects, but I can't complain about any of these performances. Weak sort of morning for both I, Tonya and The Post, which might hurt both actress's chances here--and there was a time when I would have said it was between the two of them for the win. Strange how awards season shakes out.
Early winner prediction: Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project*
Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*
Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water*
Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World*
Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*
As per usual, this category manages to be the dullest and most disappointing. I hate, hate, hate that neither of the Call Me by Your Name boys got in. What a waste. Christopher Plummer is now the oldest acting nominee ever for All the Money... at 88.
Early winner prediction: Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige-Mudbound*
Allison Janney-I, Tonya*
Lesley Manvile-Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird*
Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water
Manville is probably the most unexpected nomination of the day--goes to show how much they responded to the movie (or just how much they responded to Manville's upper crust, I'll-cut-you shade).
Early winner prediction: Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out*
Lady Bird*
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*
Great to see The Big Sick find love *somewhere,* though it's strange that neither Phantom Thread nor I, Tonya could muscle their way in here. This category will be one hell of a slugging match for the win, with four of the nominees being within striking distance.
Early winner prediction: Get Out
Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name*
The Disaster Artist*
Logan*
Molly's Game*
Mudbound*
Call Me by Your Name! Logan! Great fun to be had here. This is James Ivory's chance (writer of CMBYN, significant filmmaker of the 80s and 90s, has never won an Oscar, and is 89 years old), and no one's taking it from him. Incidentally, Logan becomes the first superhero movie ever nominated for its writing--and a great choice it is. Glad the Academy looked pasted the claws and little boys who can breathe ice to recognize a really tightly written movie.
Early winner prediction: Call Me by Your Name
Production Design
Blade Runner 2049*
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour*
Dunkirk*
The Shape of Water*
Will we ever be free of Disney's CG-heavy live-action monstrosities? I hate Beauty and the Beast (the live action version) with the passion of a thousand burning suns, and seeing it pop up here for its joyless and chaotic design makes me want to swallow my tongue. At least Blade Runner and Water showed up.
Early winner prediction: The Shape of Water
Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast*
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread*
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
As this branch can never pass up a good regal frock, I really should have seen Victoria and Abdul coming (and Darkest Hour too, I suppose). Shame that Blade Runner couldn't crack this lineup, but sci-fi just isn't the costume branch's thing.
Early winner prediction: Phantom Thread
Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049*
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi*
War for the Planet of the Apes*
Kong: Skull Island? Sure, why not. Marvel continues its streak of present but minimal representation at the Oscars, and the category in general doubles down on the current franchise culture that's dug its claws into the industry. Somewhat shocking that neither Dunkirk nor The Shape of Water could manage a nod here. In fact, Water's miss here is the only reason it didn't tie the record for most nominated film ever this year (its tally is one shy of the record 14)--but that's for the best, I think. Ask La La Land--nothing screws with a movie's legacy more than when it begins to seem over-rewarded.
Early winner prediction: Blade Runner 2049
Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour*
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
Always a tough category to predict. My biggest takeaway is that now I have to try and see both Victoria and Abdul and Wonder. Booooo. At least they're not making me watch Bright.
Early winner prediction: Darkest Hour
Film Editing
Baby Driver*
Dunkirk*
I, Tonya*
The Shape of Water*
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*
Yay Baby Driver! Not my favorite film of the year by any stretch, but the way it wove itself together, all perfectly organized musical chaos, is one heck of an achievement.
Early winner prediction: Dunkirk
Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049*
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk*
Mudbound*
The Shape of Water*
No Call Me..., which sucks, but hey, we had to make some room for lighting Gary Oldman's craggy nightmare face so that he didn't look like the Hulk's testicle, I guess. Rachel Morrison, cinematographer for Mudbound, becomes the first woman ever nominated in this category, and Richard Deakins (Blade Runner) picks up his 14th nomination without a win.
Original Score
Dunkirk*
Phantom Thread*
The Shape of Water*
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri*
Academy Award nominee Johnny Greenwood! I was worried for Phantom Thread, but it pulled through here. I know the John Williams slot is an inevitable default, but how odd is it for him to get in for Star Wars rather than The Post? I'll give a shiny new dime to anyone who can hum me four bars of new music from The Last Jedi without looking it up on Youtube first. Incidentally, is this a good place to talk about how far The Post fell? Two months ago I'd have called it to win best picture, and this morning it could only scrape two measly nominations together.
Early winner prediction: The Shape of Water
Sound Mixing
Baby Driver*
Blade Runner 2049*
Dunkirk*
The Shape of Water*
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Silly of me to take Star Wars out of my predictions at the last second. Great to see Baby Driver again--it feels like you can't really nominate its editing without also picking up on its sound.
Early winner prediction: Dunkirk
Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049*
Dunkirk*
The Shape of Water*
Star Wars: The Last Jedi*
A rare year in which both sound categories match. I don't think this has happened since the sound editing category expanded from three to five nominees in 2006? Don't quote me on that. Also, here's a good place to note that Wonder Woman wasn't nominated anywhere--shame, that.
Early winner prediction: Dunkirk
Original Song
"Mystery of Love"-Call Me by Your Name
"Remember Me"-Coco*
"This is Me"-The Greatest Showman*
"Stand Up for Something"-Marshall*
"Mighty River"-Mudbound*
Academy Award nominee Sufjan Stevens!! I will never stop smiling about this. I nearly fell off my couch when they announced this. Also glad to see the best guilty pleasure of the year (Showman) getting some love. Interesting aside: with this nomination for Mudbound, Mary J. Blige becomes the only person ever nominated for both original song and acting in the same year.
Early winner prediction: "Remember Me"-Coco
Animated Film
The Boss Baby*
The Breadwinner*
Coco*
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent*
Some people may be shocked to see The LEGO Batman Movie miss here, but if the original couldn't make it, I didn't think the sequel would either (which is a shame, considering how fun it is). Can't really speak intelligently to this category--I've only seen Coco.
Early winner prediction: Coco
Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman-Chile
The Insult-Lebanon
Loveless-Russia*
On Body and Soul-Hungary
The Square-Sweden*
Bummer that South Africa's fantastic The Wound couldn't make it, but hooray for A Fantastic Woman, which is spectacular, by all accounts. Also odd for Fatih Akin's In the Fade to miss, as I'd assumed it the frontrunner.
Early winner prediction: A Fantastic Woman-Chile
Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail*
Faces Places*
Icarus*
Last Men in Aleppo*
Strong Island
Everyone has called Jane a done deal to win for months, and now we've got a category without a frontrunner--always interesting. Will this give Agnes Varda (Faces Places) or Steve James (Abacus), two of the most influential documentarians ever, the chance to finally win a competitive Oscar? Fun fact--Strong Island becomes the first movie directed by an out trans director to be nominated oscar. (Note: emphasis on out, or The Matrix would take this title. Or something else?)
Early winner prediction: Faces Places
Note: of the main nominees (i.e. not foreign, animated, or documentary, because most of those never open near me, and I just am not going to be bothered to see The Boss Baby in theaters), I still haven't seen Roman J. Israel, Esq., All the Money in the World, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder, or Marshall. Victoria is next in my netflix cue, and I might go see All the Money... today, but Wonder and Israel both present significant hurdles to me seeing everything before the oscars (both come to Netflix in late February). Still, I'm hopeful--this is the closest I've been to seeing everything before the ceremony in a while (which is still a feat I've managed only once, in 2008).
This wasn't the best year for me as far as predicting goes, but it was a tough year. I managed to nail Actress, Supporting Actor, and Film Editing, but totally fumbled Costume Design, Makeup, and Foreign Language Film.
For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated films:
1. The Shape of Water-13
2. Dunkirk-8
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-7
4. Phantom Thread-6
5. Darkest Hour-6
6. Lady Bird-5
7. Blade Runner 2049-5
8. Get Out-4
9. Call Me by Your Name-4
10. Mudbound-4
11. Star Wars: The Last Jedi-4
What an eclectic gathering of movies on that list--big budget sci fi, horror, queer romance, high school movies, oscar bait-y period dramas, and fish sex (seriously you guys, how did The Shape of Water get this far).
And a list of notable movies that didn't get any nominations at all: Wonder Woman (still surprised by this one), The Beguiled, Stronger, Good Time, Wind River, Battle of the Sexes, In the Fade, BPM, Girls Trip, The Lost City of Z, Murder on the Orient Express, Downsizing, Okja, Wonderstruck, Detroit, mother!, Atomic Blonde, Spider-Man: Homecoming, It, Thor: Ragnarok
Well, you win some, you lose some.
In the meantime, what do y'all think? Good nominations? Bad nominations? Like I said, I'm generally pleased--things certainly could have gone worse.
(Academy Award nominee Sufjan Stevens! Whaaaaaaaaaat.)
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