Final Oscar Predictions 2022: The Only Way to Go is Up

If there 's one thing that can be said, it's this: this year's Oscars can't be worse than last year's All of the categories will be presented on TV (rather than on twitter an hour before the Oscars, thus abandoning the whole concept of celebrating filmmaking in favor of more time spent with people talking--on the Oscars stage--about how boring and meaningless the Oscars are), Shaun White won't be 10 miles of the ceremony, no last-minute "best popular" movie category has been added to throw at Zack Snyder, and no one (hopefully) will assault someone on camera and then be applauded for it ten minutes later. (Jesus, last year's Oscars really were a catastrophe.)

So if we aren't going to watch a train wreck to rival the fateful circus pile-up that launched Steven Spielberg's career, what will we be watching? As for the ceremony itself, who knows--the Academy has been remarkably tight-lipped this year, as if by hiding what they're doing, they can keep us from being horrified by the choices they've made until it's too late. (We do know that Lenny Kravitz is going to perform during the In Memoriam segment, which...sure?) But the awards promise to be some wacky combo of bizarre, volatile, wacky, and infuriating. It seems as though I say this every year, but this year for real seems to offer more instability and potential for surprises than most in recent memory.  While that might not be true for the headliner category, keep reading to find literally a dozen categories that will be a nail-biter until the envelope is opened, and at least one potential winner that is sure to send me into the wood screaming, finally fulfilling my destiny and becoming the wild wailing woods hermit you all have known me to be all along.

However things shake up (and however they shake up will almost invariably be counter to what I imagine them to be), I'm happy to shepherd you through the gilded madness. This hasn't necessarily been the most conflict-free 12-15 months of my life, and part of wondered if this was the year that I'd stop doing these posts at all--who had the time, the mental and emotional capacity, and, uh, two functioning arms?--but the Oscars have been a constant in my life for so long, and I'm thrilled to preserve that to some extent, and that you're along for the ride. I should note that, unlike the past few years, I haven't been able to see a fair number of the nominees--an unfortunate side effect of being mostly unable to go to the theater (either for medical reasons or distance ones) for the last two months, which deflated my desire to sit through online nominees if being a completionist wasn't a motivator. But still, I've seen most of them, so I'll note what I haven't seen when it comes up, and let my heart pull me in the wrong direction everywhere else.

So let's get to it! Do note that I predict more for fun than I do for accuracy. There are lots of sites online that can help you ace your Oscar pool, but I'm going to use my space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds.

Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

The much-vaunted instability that I mentioned certainly will not start here--at this point, anything but Everything Everywhere All at Once would be a massive shock. Everything Everywhere won the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Screen Actors Guild awards--and no movie to win all three has ever lost this--in addition the Critics Choice awards, setting a record at the Indie Spirits, etc. It's become an entire phenomenon, and one of the main questions to be answered right down the line is to what extent it can break the no big sweeps for best picture winners rule of the last decade. It doesn't help that none of the other nominees aren't totally plausible as winners. All Quiet and Elvis have momentum (All Quiet won a record-breaking number of awards at the British equivalent of the Oscars), but both have statistics working against them. Almost no movie has won best picture without being nominated in at least three of four big categories (directing, acting, writing, editing), and both are missing two or three of those--plus, All Quiet isn't in English. And sure, Coda won missing two of those nominations last year, and Parasite won despite not being in English three years ago, but both were unprecedented, and I don't know if those precedents will be broken again so soon. That leaves Banshees, Tar, Fabelmans, and Top Gun, each of which had early momentum and each of which has faltered in their own ways. You can predict an upset, but it's a huge risk. Instead, we can take a second to appreciate how strange, wild , and unique a winner Everything Everywhere will be.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: The Fabelmans
Should Have Been Here: Aftersun

Director
Todd Field-Tar
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund-Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans

Copy and paste the same argument as above with just a little more wiggle room. It's true that the Academy has been prone to picture/director splits recently, but that's most frequently in the space of a particularly notable ambitious or artistic work taking director from a more commercial or conventionally made best picture. This year, the big commercial work just happens to be one of the loudest/most ambitious directorial statements, so I suspect they'll stick together. Still, look to Steven Spielberg or Todd Field to take this if Everything Everywhere isn't nearly as beloved as we suspect.

Will Win: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Todd Field-Tar
Should Win: Todd Field-Tar
Should Have Been Here: Charlotte Wells-Aftersun

Actress
Cate Blanchett-Tar
Ana de Armas-Blonde
Andrea Riseborough-To Leslie
Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once

A very clear two-person race: Cate Blanchett had all the early momentum, steamrolling through the majority of the televised prizes, but enthusiasm for Everything Everywhere and Michelle Yeoh has crescendoed at exactly the right time, with her winning a maybe telling Screen Actors Guild award last weekend. It could go either way--Cate Blanchett feels like the more 'traditional' winner (as silly a word as that is to use for Tar) but Yeoh seems to have the momentum on her side. Flip a coin and/or cross your fingers.

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Cate Blanchett-Tar
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Here: Emma Thompson-Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Actor
Austin Butler-Elvis
Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser-The Whale
Paul Mescal-Aftersun
Bill Nighy-Living

Exact same situation above, with a close race between the early champ (Fraser) and the momentum-shifting late challenger (Butler). Fraser's moving comeback narrative might help him take the victory, but then again the Academy's obsession with giving Oscar to famous people playing other famous people greatly benefits Butler. So does Elvis' general across-the-board strength vs. The Whale's muted Academy support. Some people have suggested that Colin Farrell has a chance to split the difference and slip through for a beloved performance in a beloved movie, but if he couldn't win the British Academy award (home turf, so to speak), what are his chances of pulling it off here?

Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
Hong Chau-The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All at Once

One of the two or three most difficult categories to call, in no small part because everyone seems impossible as a winner. Bassett and Curtis are working from the same playbook--hugely respected and liked actresses with the chance to finally get their due in the kind of movie or role totally antithetical to the Academy's normal tastes (in this case, a Marvel movie or a small comedic role whose biggest moments occur whilst wearing hot dog fingers). Curtis might benefit from the Everything Everywhere love that seems to be cresting--as might Hsu, for that matter, whose memorable role in that movie certainly shouldn't be counted out. But if either of them wins, Everything Everywhere might be in danger of winning three acting Oscars: something that has only happened twice (On the Waterfront and Network). And are we ready to claim that Everything Everywhere is ready to join that echelon of most-beloved Oscar movies of all time? That could tip the balance in Bassett's favor, or possibly in the direction of the 'safe' choice, Kerry Condon. She has the most traditionally Oscar-y role of the bunch, and this could be the likeliest place for Banshees to win an Oscar--and given it has nine nominations, they clearly dig it, and might be looking to reward it. Still, You could predict anyone but Hong Chau here and have a good chance at being right.

Will Win: Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
Could Win: Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Hong Chau-The Whale
Should Have Been Here: Nina Hoss-Tar

Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway
Judd Hirsch-The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once

In contrast to the last category, this is one of the easiest of the night to predict. Almost impossible to imagine that Ke Huy Quan loses this.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Here: Paul Dano-The Fabelmans

Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once 
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness

Two-horse race between Banshees and Everything Everywhere. Banshees wins if they want to value dialogue more, and if they don't want it to go home empty-handed, and Everything wins if they value unique premise/originality more, and if they're caught up in the Everything Everywhere love. Fun trivia note: this is the first time that the director and original categories have lined up exactly, and each of the directors of these movies also wrote the screenplay.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Tar
Should Have Been Here: Petite Maman

Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

Reporting that All Quiet on the Western Front has a good chance to win this is one of the worst things I've ever had to do, but that's where we are--I'm in the trenches, and I'm not even going to get a retroactive adaptation about how it was actually France's fault all along. But All Quiet has come out of nowhere as a big Oscar player (a narrative we'll be forced to discuss for the rest of this post), so I can't pretend that it couldn't walk to victory amid a fairly low-key field. Its biggest competition is certainly Women Talking, a cerebral and dialogue-heavy meditation on timely themes written by a well-respected filmmaker has gotten her due--not difficult to see that as a winning narrative here. If Top Gun hadn't lost all its momentum, I'd argue it would be a bigger threat here, and if I suspected that more Academy voters were wont to say 'hey, it's Nobel Prize Laureate Kazuo Ishiguro! Let's give him an Oscar!,' I'd suggest that Living had a stronger chance, but I really think it's between All Quiet and Women Talking.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Living
Should Have Been Here: Fire Island

Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans

Another near impossible category, with only one movie (The Fabelmans) truly out of it (...then again, we also said that about Spielberg's Lincoln in this category in 2012 and it won, so). If you're looking purely at best picture momentum, All Quiet and Elvis have the advantage. If you're looking for the big, glitzy set-pieces that this category frequently rewards, look to Babylon and Elvis. If you're looking for visual spectacles that might impress voters enough to vote for them here, consider All Quiet and Avatar. If yon want to throw your hands to the sky and wail, get in the wailing line with the rest of us.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Babylon
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Have Been Here: Mad God

Costume Design
Bablyon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Significantly less sky wailing here, though there's still room for a good sky whimper. Elvis has the advantage of 'most' costumes, Black Panther has the most eye-catching costumes, and Everything Everywhere has memorable work in a potential Oscar-sweeping movie. The first two seem your likeliest bets, though I'm awfully tempted to call this for Everything Everywhere. Still, I think all the  recreations of famous looks in Elvis will be enough to carry it across the finish line.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Have Been Here: Glass Onion

Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

Deceptively simple: Avatar takes it in a walk, right? Well, yes and no. Avatar kind of fell on its face, Academy-wise. and when that happens, no amount of decade-in-the-making effects wizardry can save you from movies with more best picture buzz. So yes, the odds are still (probably) in Avatar's favor, but if you expect All Quiet or Top Gun to make a play for the top prize (or to supplant Elvis as the big craft sweeper), then look to this category to watch it begin.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Have Been Here: Mad God

Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

More close races! I told you that the categories were gonna be nuts down the line. The simple logic is this: whichever movie you picked to win for best actor wins this award (unless you picked The Banshees of Inisherin, in which case woe betide). There's a compelling case to be made for All Quiet to take this category if it becomes a real craft juggernaut, but I feel (somewhat) confident that the best actor makeup transformation goes hand in hand with respect for the performance, and that the whole process will take two Oscars.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: The Whale
Should Win: The Batman
Should Have Been Here: Crimes of the Future

Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick

What was previously Top Gun's category to lose has begun to look more and more like Everything Everywhere's to lose. Definitely pick that one here if you're imagining (like I am) that Everything Everywhere come away a big winner, and pick Top Gun if you suspect that Everything Everywhere is too weird or frenetic for Oscar's tastes. There's maybe a chance for Elvis to upset--and look for it to do so if you think it's going for best picture--but otherwise this is fairly cut and dry.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Here: Aftersun

Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tar

Very much All Quiet's to lose. Another spot for Elvis to push the frontrunner off its pedestal and gain momentum towards a best picture win, but I'm not sure I would count on it. Sidebar: if Elvis were to win, Mandy Walker would become the first woman to win in this category, the only one a woman has never won.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Elvis
Should Win: Tar
Should Have Been Here: EO*

*I haven't seen Bardo

Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans

An absolutely maddening category--arguably hardest to predict, give or take supporting actress? Any one of these nominees has a near-equal chance of taking it, by my estimation. Babylon and All Quiet two most non-traditional but attention calling scores here. Babylon cannot function without the energy and chaos the score brings, and Justin Hurwitz is a two-time winner, so clearly they like him--but can any of those factors overcome the fact that people neither saw nor liked the movie? All Quiet's score was derided to some extent for being anachronistic and sticking out, but those very elements mean that everyone who saw the movie probably remembers its music, and if they want an easy place to reward a movie they clearly love, this is it. Ditto for Banshees of Inisherin, a 'traditional' film score in a popular movie written by a well-loved composer who has never won before, which has all the makings for a win. You could argue that The Fabelmans benefits from those same elements (well-liked movie with a traditionally pretty score and only one easy place to give it an Oscar), plus the inherent draw of giving John Williams one final Oscar. And then there's Everything Everywhere All at Once, which probably has the least compelling winning argument here, but is also part of a movie that might win an absolute clown-load of Oscars, which in the right year is a winning argument in and of itself.
Basically I have no idea, and now I'm going to weep into my pillow a while.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Babylon
Should Have Been Here: Nope

Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

Remember when Top Gun was going to be a multi-Oscar winning massive best picture threat? Now it's barely holding its head above water, scrabbling to win an Oscar or two while bigger competitors walk towards it with a flamethrower. I think Top Gun could still pull it out here (and not go home empty-handed), but All Quiet is breathing reeeeaaaallly heavily down its neck, and Elvis is definitely creeping somewhere in the wings.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: The Batman
Should Have Been Here: Nope

Original Song
"Applause"-Tell It Like a Woman
"Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick
"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"Naatu Naatu"-RRR
"This is a Life"-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Somehow, "Naatu Naatu" has gone from a 'wouldn't it be fun if it were nominated' pipe dream to a seemingly unstoppable competitor in this category. Some people have argued that Chadwick Boseman sentiment (as well as the thrill of having Rihanna return to music just to the Superbowl and the Oscars, in that order) will lead to Black Panther's song triumphing, but I'm...skeptical? If Chadwick Boseman sentiment were as strong in the Academy as it were online, then they probably would have given him the Oscar in 2020 rather than giving it to Anthony Hopkins before the ceremony slinked off ignominiously into the night. Still, it's an upset waiting in the wings.

Will Win: "Naatu Naatu"-RRR
Could Win: "Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: "Naatu Naatu"-RRR
Should Have Been Here: "The Whale"-Inu-Oh*

*I haven't seen Tell It Like a Woman

Animated Film
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

Probably a no-brainer--Guillermo Del Toro's Pinicchio crawls like a horrible wooden crab puppet up to the stage to shriek in its posh little voice about how no one is safe. But the fact that it was widely expected to show up in a number of categories (score, sound, screenplay, maybe even picture) and then fell on its face suggests that there is some (small) upset potential. Marcel the Shell seems like the likeliest candidate, but I wouldn't count out Puss in Boots, which had an absolutely astounding theater run based on word of mouth and is more loved than we might expect. 

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Could Win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Should Win: Turning Red
Should Have Been Here: Mad God

International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany
Argentina, 1985-Argentina
Close-Belgium
EO-Poland
The Quiet Girl-Ireland

Easiest call of the night. No movie ever nominated in both this category and best picture has ever lost this category, and if we're talking about All Quiet as a legitimate threat to win best picture, there's no way it can lose here.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany
Could Win: Argentina, 1985-Argentina
Should Win: Close-Belgium*
Should Have Been Here: RRR-India

*I haven't seen Argentina, 1985 or The Quiet Girl

Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

Navalny has emerged as the one to beat in the last couple weeks, displacing previous frontrunner All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. My months-long hunch that All That Breathes would be the stealth winner is seemingly coming to not, as is Fire of Love's popularity and support. Still, my instinct suggests that Navalny is not as ironclad a frontrunner as we're supposed to believe. So if you have a hunch, maybe now is the time to play it.

Will Win: All That Breathes
Could Win: Navalny
Should Win: Fire of Love*
Should Have Been Here: Riotsville, USA

*I haven't seen All the Beauty and the Bloodshed or A House Made of Splinters

And that's that! Currently, I've got Everything Everywhere all at Once as the biggest winner with six Oscars, but so many categories are still wide open; it's anyone's guess what happens. (Watch, now All Quiet on the Western Front will sweep all nine of its nominations and my heart will explode from rage.)
Well, whatever happens, it can't be worse than last year....I hope.

Best of 2022, Part 2: Everything Else

 After yesterday and this morning's exertions (a phrase which here means 'I had to move around a little, for a not very significant amount of time'), I've come to a couple conclusions about today's big list, namely that things are going to get pared down even more. It's a bummer, but that's the way this year is, and there's nothing to do but grit your teeth, bludgeon your way through it, and then cry for a long time afterward. So that's what we can all do together! In a normal year I'd have two more separate posts, each with plenty of write-ups, discussion, and attempts at silliness, but given the now legendary mauling of my brittle body, we're just gonna dump everything at once, throw up our hands (or hand, in my case), and promise to do better next year.

So what does that look like in practice? I'll still do some write-ups, but they'll be very brief--and, in the case of categories like directing, acting and screenplay, which I've always struggled to do, they might not exist at all. I'll still include images and videos where appropriate, but I'll freely admit that I'm in full 'just finish this so you can not move for  few hours' mode. But here we are! Maybe next year I'll do a twice-as-long listing extravaganza, just to set the planets back on their proper paths.

I'll start with acting, directing, screenplays, then I'll segue to the craft categories, where you're most likely to find pictures and/or more words than 'ooh wow, that was good, big happy face for sure.' I'll link to some clips for the acting awards, but there'll be no rhyme or reason to who gets a link--just whoever I feel like in the moment!

Best Actress
5. Tang Wei-Decision to Leave
4. Mia Goth-Pearl
3. Emma Thompson-Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
2. Cate Blanchett-Tar
1. Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Honorable mention: Guslagie Malanda-Saint Omer

Lot of my choices this year dictated by physicality, Mia Goth being unhinged and storky in Pearl, Emma Thompson finding a million layers of security in insecurity in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Cate Blanchette being a self-possessed terror, or Michelle doing everything (everywhere) with her face and body, carrying entire character arcs in her face and posture while beating the shit out of people

Actor
5. Gabrielle LaBelle-The Fabelmans
4. Paul Mescal-Aftersun
3. Jack Lowden-Benediction
2. Franz Rogowski-Great Freedom
1. Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin

Honorable mention: Austin Butler-Elvis

Great category--I'm in love with the goofy, jangly insecurity and earnestness that Gabrielle Labelle brings, as well as the shifting faces of Paul Mescal's inscrutable work. Lowden is great, and Rogowski's hangdog hunger  could win in another year, but 2022 was all about Colin Farrell who topped  an already stellar career.

Supporting Actress
5. Hong Chau-The Whale
4. Noomi Rapace-You Won't Be Alone
3. Dolly De Leon-Triangle of Sadness
2. Nicole Kidman-The Northman
1. Nina Hoss-Tar

Honorable mention: Dakota Johnson-Cha Cha Real Smooth

Hate to say anything nice about The Whale, but Hong Chau earned her spot. Somehow ended up banging the drum for a number of nominees forgotten by awards season, including Rapace learning how to be a person in You Won't Be Alone, Nicole Kidman having a spoiler-heavy meltdown in The Northman, and Nina Hoss's perfect and glacial changes of mood that slide across her face, just as good or better than her (justly) celebrated co-star Cate Blanchett.

Supporting Actor
5. Paul Dano-The Fabelmans
4. Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway
3. Judd Hirsch-The Fabelmans
2. Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
1. Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Honorable mention: Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin

Bless Paul Dano and Brian Tyree Henry's respective silences, and Judd Hirsch's exact opposite of that, but this category belongs to the top two. I almost went with wacky goblin Barry Keoghan who continues to challenge while being weird as shit, but I'll stick a toe out for empathy, humor, and doing all your own stunts and fight choreography.

Director
5. Jordan Peele-Nope
4. Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans
3. S.S. Rajamouli-RRR
2. Todd Field-Tar
1. Charlotte Wells-Aftersun

Honorable mention: Jerzy Skilimowski-EO

Peele pushes his visual style way beyond his previous work and makes his scariest movie, Spielberg returns to his roots and then films them, Rajamouli makes one of the pound-for-pound wildest action extravaganzas ever made, and Field makes an impeccably crafted contradiction--and all of them beat by the hazy memories and delicate contours of Wells' debut.

Original Screenplay
5. Saint Omer
4. Nope
3. Aftersun
2. Petite Maman
1. Tar

Honorable mention: Decision to Leave

Lots of labyrinths here (Saint Omer, Decision to Leave, Tar) accompanied by movies wherein people tend to not have much to say (...the other three). 

Adapted Screenplay
5. The Wonder
4. Catherine Called Birdy
3. Glass Onion
2. Living
1. Fire Island

Honorable mention: Bones and All

A mostly silly selection in a somewhat sparse year, though The Wonder gives us enough dense existential doubt to get us across the finish line. Admired Catherine Called Birdy and Glass Onion's commitment to their own heightened styles, but let me live in Fire Island's horny and aloof rendition of Jane Austen.

Production Design

5. Avatar: The Way of Water

(source)

Wacky fluorescent underwater fish tanks! 

4. Benediction

Gilded queer cages with spectacular wallpaper!

3. After Yang

(source)

The future! It's full of earth tones and plants!

2. The Northman

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Painstakingly recreated Viking villages for Alexander Skarsgaard to stab you to death in!

1. Mad God

It's just hell! Hell in every direction! A 4D experience!

Honorable mention: Babylon

Costume Design

5. Nope

(source)

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Chaos chic for when you want to get sucked up into the sky in style!

4. Bones and All

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Thrift store treasures and, uh, found items for when you want to eat people in style!

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

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Strong top five entry into the best knitwear movies of all time!

2. Glass Onion

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Life(and death)styles of the rich and famous! As if a toddler threw up a box of crayons onto a flag museum! Big hats!

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

(source)

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An untenable number of giant hats/statement pieces! Colors! Indulgence! Little green shorts!

Honorable mention: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Visual Effects

5. Nope

(source)

Flying aliens! Spooky animal performers! The insides of both!

4. Top Gun: Maverick

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The jets fly (mostly)! Many other great qualities!

3. Moonfall

The Moon falls!

2. Mad God

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Absolutely bananas stop-motion effects work! Makes you both wonder how they did it and also makes you think 'oh wow, that was gross!' 

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

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Goes without saying! Immersion-breaking for your perception of reality!

Honorable mention: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Makeup and Hairstyling

5. Babylon

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Glamour before and after it rots! Tobey Maguire as Ron Howard as Count Orlok!

4. The Northman

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Filth! Viscera! Exotic angel teeth!

3. The Batman

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Turning Colin Farrell into a furious mound of goo! Smokey eyes for everyone!

2. Bones and All

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Plot-driving scars, gore, and hair choices! Maybe Mark Rylance is a makeup effect by this point?

1. Crimes of the Future

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Cronenberg body horror! An abundance of ears! Feeding chairs! Surgery and nightmares, not always in that order!

Honorable mention: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Film Editing

5. Nope

4. RRR

3. Great Freedom

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

1. Aftersun

Honorable mention: Tar

Lots of room in this category for conjuring tension (Nope), balancing action and comedy/romance (RRR, Everything Everywhere), or keeping different chronologies together or apart (Great Freedom, Aftersun). 

Cinematography

(getting pretty tapped out, so I'll just let the images speak for this one)

5. The Fabelmans

(source)

4. Living

3. Aftersun

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2. Great Freedom

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1. EO

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Honorable mention: Nope

Original Score
5. The Menu-the kind of music you'd hear in an upwards elevator going down, the kind of music that would be played if a string quartet were hired to humanely destroy someone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yKCFjoYUbE

4. The Inspection-beeps, grinds, breaths, and screams, punctuated by the occasional soft vocal counterpoint.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmhCMd8SsU0&list=OLAK5uy_kbBnaMM4E-yf-lKfMfET_tKQVpb5Y1sdk&index=10

3. EO-music that's not afraid to be as out there as the film it's in, changing genre on the fly, shedding instruments like they're skin, and stumbling every now and again into macabre dance beat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tcZ_J2dbmM&list=PLRW80bBvVD3VnDAS1Tz8s6PRQGTMyll-O&index=3

2. Nope-not sure there's a more transformative or exciting moment in movie music this year than when Michael Abels says screw it and goes full western during the film's climax. And the moments of silence! Man, this score rules.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GTVWqIXzeE

1. Babylon-does more for its movie than any other score this year, granting it all the wild-eyed energy and propulsive motion it has to spare--which is a whole ton. It's up for debate whether this movie is successful (though I'd argue it is), but I'm not sure it would even exist without the music.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_2duUyqaAg

Honorable mention: Mad God

Sound Mixing

5. EO

4. The Batman

3. Nope

2. Prey

1. Tar

Honorable Mention: Babylon

The Batman, Nope, and Prey all had moments of balance, silence, or cacophony that all audibly made me gasp, but the cake must be given to Tar, whose slippery sound mix undermines the concept of reality while heightening it at the same time.

Sound Editing

5. The Northman

4. Mad God

3. The Batman

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

1. Nope

Honorable mention: Prey

I'm partial to the moist thuds and meaty KOs of The Northman, an entire hellscape of suffering creatures in Mad God, and the preposterously deep-throated stentorian roars of the Batmobile in The Batman. Avatar gets credit alone for fashioning an entire chorus of alien lifeforms and then making them gurgle underwater, but the winner is Nope, whose whisper-thick UFO swoops and fine-tuned sense of scale and digestion continue to astound. 

Original Song

5. "New Body Rhumba"-White Noise

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JG17jiPdbb0

4. "The Whale"-Inu-Oh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34bUsPi0kP0

3. "Etthara Jenda"-RRR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccbp0_ZqMBY

2. "Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2CIAKVTOrc

1. "Naatu Naatu"-RRR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsU0CGZoV8E

Honorable mention: "Dragon Commander"-Inu-Oh

Lot of real-ass bops at play here. New Body Rhumba is a chill blast, The Whale feels like Queen translated through Noh and angry Japanese ghosts, and Hold My Hand is absolutely the song I hope plays every time I see a plane for the rest of my life. Some of the politics might be...suspect? in Etthara Jenda's number, but god is it a fun way to conclude the movie. Still, the only choice is the song that grabs you by the face and guarantees that it will find where you live if you don't get up and dance right this goddamn second.

And that's it for this year's lists, such as they were! A little truncated and listless (heh) by the end, but the good news is we've all made it to the other side and will only mildly regret it tomorrow. I'll be back at the end of the week to attempt Oscar predictions, but this'll be it for the long weepy entries about movies.

For those playing along at home, these were the movies that showed up most on my lists:

Nope-9

Aftersun-6

Tar-6

The Fabelmans-6

RRR-6

As for wins, Tar and Aftersun tied with three each, Aftersun taking Picture, Director, and Film Editing, and Tar taking Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Sound Mixing. 

And that's it! As always, thanks much for reading!

Best of 2022, Part 1: the top 20

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Well, sometimes the hot dog fingers win.

As you may or may not know (put probably don't), I injured my left arm at the end of January. And it's getting better quickly (I can generally use my fingers! I accidentally spread peanut butter with my left arm the other day and it wasn't even a big deal! It doesn't even hurt to do a thumbs up anymore!), but the issue is that it still hurts to type for any significant period of time. I've been leaving off doing these for as long as possible, in hopes that I'd get to a place where I could do my usual 3 day, 12-15.000 word bonanza just as the prophecy has always foretold, but that's just not in the cards this year. But I'd rather do something than nothing at all!

So here's this year's format: rather than my demanding and unseemly massive wall of paragraphs about my top movies, I'll list them with an illustrative picture and a version of my review from Letterboxd (if I don't have one of those ready to go, I'll write up something short and snappy). While this is maybe a bummer if you already follow me on Letterboxd, or if you are a big fan of huge paragraphs,it'll be a great advertisement for those of you have yet to opt in to the pulse-pounding, year-round excitement that a social media site just for movie reviews provides (and you can find me at this link). 

It's been a massively strange year in my life for one million reasons, but it's also been a strange year for my relationship to movies: I watched more than 10% of all the movies I've ever seen in my life during 2022, which no doubt contributed to me logging a record-tying 100 movies before beginning my annual write-up process. But to some degree, I feel move removed from movies than I have in a long time--maybe because I don't live anywhere near a theater anymore, maybe because the pandemic and post-lockdown world changed what it means to go to the theater, or maybe just because the concept of American studio filmmaking--or Americans going to the theater--feels pretty definitively on its way out. Still, I found plenty to love this cinematic year, and I'm sure you will too if you take a chance on some of the movies below.

Now, I'm embarrassed to admit that my hand is already shaking just from doing this intro, so maybe we ought to get to it. Normally, I'd add an alphabetized list of all the movies I've seen, but this year I'm just going ask you to trust that I've seen those 100 movies, and encourage you to look at my letterboxd if you're curious what the full list contains. Or better yet, if you're curious if I've seen a movie, or what my opinion is, just ask me!

I'm also going to eschew my usual tradition of telling you where you can find a movie (sorry--trying to spare as many words as I can), but I will point you in the direction of Justwatch, which is a fantastic service that will do exactly that. 

All that said, I still plan to include my 10 best scenes of the year, as well as the 5 worst movies, so look for those after the list! And speaking of, without further ado (I lost all my ado in...the incident), here we go:

Honorable mentions: though they didn't make my top 20, I'm grateful for the laser-etched pasts and presents of Saint Omer, the zany, earnest heart in Everything Everywhere All at Once, and James Cameron doing what James Cameron does best with Avatar: The Way of Water.

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20. EO (dir. Jerzy Skolimowski)

The mash-up of Au Hasard, Balthasar, 2001, and The Tree of Life I never knew I needed. Gorgeous filmmaking, intense music and sound design, and a compellingly unknowable protagonist drive this bizarre little fable about a donkey in a world of humans.

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19. Elvis (dir. Baz Luhrmann)

Plays like gangbusters and works even better the second time around, which is strange, given I'm not sure that anything about this movie works at all, but the spectacle manages to pull me downstream with it. Lurid maximalism for maximalism's sake, and where's it say that that's a bad thing? Still have my reservations about the last half hour, but I also kind of suspect that this is the best music biopic that's come around in a while.

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18. Prey (dir. Dan Trachtenberg)

45 minutes of tension and worldbuilding followed by 45 minutes of meticulously scaffolded and executed action scenes erupting like coiled springs. Crafts excellent, particularly Sarah Scachner's jangly and bombastic score, as well as the incredible sound design--the bear-in-the-river scene made me gasp more than once (because I am the kind of person who likes to gasp at really good sound work). Just a blast from start to finish. (Also, watch it in the Comanche dub, because why wouldn’t you.) 

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17. The Banshees of Inisherin (dir. Martin McDonagh)

Misery and no outlet, a whole world of people with dreams and no way to execute them and no explanation for their absence, and the only way out the lake or running into someone else's arms, torch in hand. 100 tight minutes about what we owe each other, and how maybe the only answer is promising to hate each other forever. Colin Farrell for the Nobel, Barry Keoghan for King of the Goblins that Live Under the Stairs, and the costume designer for Eternal Sweater Empress.

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16. Decision to Leave (dir. Park Chan-wook)

Plotted and staged like a venn diagram, all the lovely or uncomfortable moments pushed into one another and asked to mingle. Fun to watch Park Chan-wook get a little giddy with visually conveying cell phone drama, the endless romance of having someone pay attention to you, whatever the context, and with how the sea doesn't give a shit about any of this.

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15. Please Baby Please (dir. Amanda Kramer)

Horned up queer fantasy for anyone into the chemical spill façade of the 50s, gender performativity, or wanting to watch Karl Glusman romp around in leathers while making eyes Harry Melling. Something of a national tragedy that this wasn't Andrea Riseborough's Oscar-nominated grassroots triumph this year.

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14. The Northman (dir. Robert Eggers)

How neat is it that we've got a director like Robert Eggers, making million-dollar exacting historical sandboxes to play in and trace the impossible line between magic and insanity. Kidman doing her best film work since The Paperboy, at least--an absolute joy to see her working in this register. Very much hoping for a spin-off where Olga goes back home and becomes Baba Yaga, thus completing Eggers' Anya Taylor-Joy Angry Rural Pagan Girl trilogy.

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13. Babylon (dir. Damien Chazelle)

God help me but I really enjoyed this one. The kind of movie that generates more with its flaws than it would as a tighter version of itself, offering up a wobbly amalgam of piss and stupidity that other people might have tried to mop into the shape of a heart. It's a mess, but I ended up not minding. The criminal/wild-eyed torture/ecstasy of Spike Jonze trying to move heaven and hell (and succeeding in at least one of those realms) to get his shot before the light disappears is one of the comic highlights of the year for me. And bless Jovan Adepo as well, who has deserved to be a huge star for years now, and takes this opportunity (again) to be the most interesting part of a movie that isn't entirely sure what to do with him. All in all I dug it, but then again I'm always a sucker for people watching time pass by.

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12. Mad God (dir. Phil Tippett)

At the very top of the pile of 2022 movies that make you want to shout "Moloch!" at the screen. One of the most spectacular visual experiences I've had with a movie recently--the kind of work where you don't really need to be told that someone spent 30 years making this to know that it's true. Like someone read Inferno and decided that it was good, but not angry enough, and needed more dead gnomes and 2001 allusions. Hideous and creative and punishing and black-hearted and not at all what I'd expected for a quick watch on a Sunday morning.

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11. Fire of Love (dir. Sara Dosa)

A 9-year old me had a VHS tape about the Kraffts and their work (part of a larger cardboard box of used VHS tapes about volcanoes), and was enchanted by the silliness, the beauty, and by the impossible and inevitable heartbreak of watching these two people so hopefully talk about the event that would end their lives. I was just as enchanted by the silliness, the beauty, and the ticking of the clock with this iteration, and even more so with the romance of it all, both the love the Kraffts showed for each other and what they showed for the world. And for the stunning images they caught on camera, the artistry of which seems just as striking as the science.

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10. Great Freedom (dir. Sebastian Meise)

Feels largely like a movie about light in all its iterations, moving from a match at the beginning to full neon glow at the end. Stunning to look at and listen to, with an ending that has kept me thinking since I saw it, and with Franz Rogowski giving a holy shit kind of career-making performance. A gorgeous moment spent staring at isolation, absence, and the way that time breathes life into and kills relationships, depending on the day (if and when you can decide what day it might be). 

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9. Living (dir. Oliver Hermanus)

Oliver Hermanus has always been my favorite director of movies I didn't completely love. I admired his ambition and I was astounded by his formal control and aesthetic sensibilities, but nothing he made ever quite found its way to me. Not sure what changed, but I limped to the end of this one as a boneless wreck. As always, quietly bowled over by how Hermanus generates isolation in crowded rooms, and places lights and sounds that seem cold or sarcastic in one moment and then morph into earnest as the moment progresses. And the end, suggesting that it's always better to find something small and ugly and make it beautiful--even if it feels too late, even if it won't last--than to let things linger; to find some way to marvel at how strange it is to be anything at all.

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8. Benediction (dir. Terence Davies)

The passage of time as an act of strangulation, how easy it is to be hollowed out by all the things that can't remove their fingers, age itself just proof of how easy you are to lose. Gentle and wounded compression of too many hideous realities in one body. Immediately moves up near the top of the WWI movie pantheon, not that that's an especially deep roster. Jeremy Irvine's performance is like he prepared by doing nothing but internalizing every one of the Wicked Witch of the West's line readings whilst America's Next Top Model played in the background, but somehow it totally works. Lowden as revelatory as everyone has said--a real thrill to watch an actor drag something this fine-tuned and vulnerable out of some as-yet unseen pit.

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7. Close (dir. Lukas Dhont)

One aspect of growing up queer in a space that doesn't welcome that queerness is how quickly, gladly, and desperately you can come to ripping out and suffocating pieces of yourself, pieces you'll then spend the rest of your life trying to find and reconstruct. You can imagine ghosts of your other selves trailing behind you, waiting to be reborn, but they never will be, because they have nothing to do with the life you've led in their absence. Just decorations, reminders of a hook that was pushed under your skin before you knew what it meant. And it's not important now, who you are now was (and is) hard won, but sometimes you might make awkward eye contact with a ghost as it flashes past your eye, and there's nothing either of you can do but shrug and look away.

Close might not be explicitly about that, it speaks right to it, and all the ways that people can choose to replace silence with noise. I get the criticisms of this movie's second half, and I get that it's a three-hankie weepie, but I have to admit that it doesn’t bother me. 

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6. Petite Maman (dir. Celine Sciamma)

As good a moment as any to point out how many of my favorites this year are about the passage of time, how it shapes a life just by continuing to move, and how the past and present converse with each other, across decades or face to face. Sciamma's film, about a girl who finds a portal into the past where she meets her mother as a child, certainly fits that mold, and achingly, lovingly so. "You didn't invent my sadness" deserves its own star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

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5. Nope (dir. Jordan Peele)

Is it better to look or to die? Yes, or alternately, no. A world-sized terrarium full of vomit, atrocities, and used film stock, in that order. Everyone everywhere is hungry, but that's part of the fun.

Even more convinced on a rewatch that Peele's made something really special--a pretty-ugly gnashing of teeth about how (and why) to look at all the bad miracles and a love letter to filmmaking and the pressures of its history. Huge leap forward on a visual/craft level, and a high-wire blend of big summer fun and some legitimately disturbing visuals and content.

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4. RRR (dir. S.S. Rajamouli)

Honestly nothing on god's green earth could have gotten my loins properly girded to see this in theaters. The most movie I've ever seen in a movie, maybe, and I'm still giggling thinking about the absurd giddy heights it reaches, parkouring from bromantic music video to face-melting action scene to some real Gene Kelly dancing excellence and then back again. This should play at least once a day in every theater for, like, 800 years minimum. Hearing and reading what some Indian writers feel about some of its political undertones has dampened my enthusiasm for this movie just a hair, but I can't deny when great cinema is great cinema, and that's what RRR is.

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3. Tár (dir. Todd Field)

Daring and Hugely rewarding--clearly some real virtuoso shit at work. Maybe one of the strangest, prickliest and most deliberately misleading recent (relatively) mainstream movies to appear, refusing to be nailed down to any one moment, mindset, impression, or genre (is this fundamentally a ghost story? A fantasy? a comedy?). Most viscerally impressed by the sound design, which drags entire labyrinths out of the darkness. Also by the carefully crafted tempo that hides the chaos engine pumping steam into all of the moving parts. A movie about stopping and starting time, whatever that can mean, until time refuses to stop at all. Blanchett deserves the accolades, obviously, but I really hope we make room for Nina Hoss in the conversation as well, who can move continents with one shifting facial muscle. How fun is it that this movie exists exactly as it does?

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2. The Fabelmans (dir. Steven Spielberg)

I am not at a place in my life where I could bring any level of objectivity to this, but I loved it with my whole heart and was weepy for at least 50% of the runtime. A freight train full of Spielberg doing what he does best, from the opening original Spielberg Face to the dorky and joyful moving camera punchline at the end. Embodies deep in its bones the Truffaut cinema as agony or joy quote, and finds room for both (and for some other feelings in between). Holding your passions in your hand as if afraid they'll disappear--and if you let go, sometimes they do. Follow your dreams! Or don't and be shattered! Or just watch a movie about it instead! I saw this in theaters five times—more than anything in my life other my childhood obsession with Titanic that convinced me that I wanted to make movies. At this point, I just need to accept the inevitable, buy a copy of this movie, and play it every night when I go to sleep like it's whale sounds or something.

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1. Aftersun (dir. Charlotte Wells)

I really struggled on my first watch to find words that do it justice--like looking through the little mind camera Sophie mentions, where everything is made of skins, one piled on on top of another, some hot and unfamiliar, some ornamental, some almost thin enough to see through, something that exists in the absent space between dreaming and waking up and ends feeling like the kind of day the characters describe, where everything has been wonderful but it still feels like your bones don't work.

And if it hits like a train the first time around, the second time feels like the same train is backing up over you again--you already know how it feels, but that doesn't make it any easier. Fascinated by how taken this movie is by textures, physical or otherwise, the moments you can slide your fingers across in your mind and feel the bumps and ridges. And while the talk (rightfully) centers how strong the central relationship is, Aftersun is also a stellar evocation of a very specific piece of adolescence, fully inhabiting the brief moment in between discovering that you want to desire and learning what that actually means. A bursting world inhabited by sideways glances without much intention beyond learning how to glance sideways. Really phenomenal movie--almost impossible to believe that it's a debut.

And there's that! This is normally the point where I'd say that I'd take a quick break to weep quietly in a corner before continuing, but I'm all fired up (and/or am somewhat desperate to stop), so why don't we skip the break and go right into the best scenes and the worst movies of the year.

(I'll try to link to a clip of the best scenes if possible.)
(Note: generally I try and avoid spoilers or picking endings here, but I'll still mention which clips might be spoilers when I hit them.)

Best Scenes of the Year

10. "The Defense is Wrong!"-Fire Island

(the apotheosis of comedy scenes written for gay film enthusiasts)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNchouL-TrQ

9. We're Losing the Light-Babylon

(also no video, so here's a picture of a dinosaur that kind of captures the essence of it)

 

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8. Bheem Unleashes a Very Specific Kind of Hell on the British-RRR

(If you haven't seen RRR, you should definitely wait to see this in the context of the movie, but this is also a great snapshot of the movie's bananas energy if you need convincing)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDAHHPGcLzo

7. Elvis sings at the Hayride-Elvis

(huge, silly/comitragic encapsulation of the film's energy and where it wants to go)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQhqKsu7y6I

6. Fanny Pack Rumble-Everything Everywhere All at Once

(creative and wild, accentuated by great performances, shows up before the movie's many action scenes start offering diminishing returns)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UQ7yvfctOU

5. The Star Lasso Experience-Nope

(definitely spoilers if you haven't seen. Hideous and gorgeous in equal measure, scary as shit by the end)

4. Family Dance Competition-After Yang

(Introduces all the characters, is a total riot--why don't all movies start with a context-less dance number)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRGU2J8BfvA

3. How to Talk to Your Bully After You Have Inadvertently Upset Him by Making a Movie Where He Looks Like a Cool and Competent Guy-The Fabelmans

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6yAoGbeCBs

2. Sammy in the Editing Booth-The Fabelmans

(spoilers in the clip: a wordless demonstration of the intersection of art and your own life, and how one devastates the other)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZPO4HZGrkQ

1. Naatu Naatu-RRR

(the most fun four minutes of the year! Choreography for days! This movie rocks)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsU0CGZoV8E

And finally, the worst movies of the year! While I don't want to dwell on negativity or end on a down note, there's some catharsis to be found in pushing the things that wasted your time right off their roller skates. So let's push away! Note that I generally avoid movies that are supposed to be awful, so this can just as easily be seen as a list of most disappointing movies.

Honorable Mention: while I acknowledge that it's generally too competent in too many ways to call it the worst, I still think All Quiet on the Western Front is execrable trash that I deeply despise, and if you ask me why I will be happy to speak to you for at least eight hours about it

5. Uncharted-The Muppet Babies already did an Indiana Jones episode, why did we need to do it again?

4. The Black Phone-so thrilled by its own blackness, and so excited to rub its audience face in the shits it keeps laying down. Strong child performances can't save this useless exercise in miserablism.

3. Empire of Light-Not sure I have anything to add about this movie that that Julia Louise-Dreyfuss wtf gif doesn't already say.

2. Lightyear-Is this the most unintentionally funny opening text in the history of film? The Hindenburg of Pixar movies.

1. Death on the Nile-I'm just a boy, standing in front of a computer, asking who is going to slap that camera out of Kenneth Branagh's hands.

And that's it for today! I will be back...sometime this week! To finish this with some number of posts in some kind of format! In the meantime, what do you think? What am I missing? What should I give another chance?