Oscar Predictions, Part 5: Summing it Up

Alright, back again. Oscar nominations come out in roughly 22 hours, which means that in 22 hours no one, including myself, will be thinking about what was predicted so much as what actually happened. Until then, though, we get to continue to have fun trying to read the tea leaves. Today, I'm just going to collect everything in one place: I'll offer up all my predictions, in order of likelihood and without commentary, and only allow myself one alternate. Incidentally, I know it's strange to write so much about predicting the Academy's best-of-the-year picks without talking about my own, so know that my own 'best of 2011' lists are coming down the pike. I've just got a few more movies I need to see. I imagine I'll get those lists up somewhere in early to mid February. Before the Oscars, anyway. Just know for now that If I could automatically guarantee a nomination, I'd have to choose between Michael Fassbender for Actor, Charlize Theron for Actress, and The Tree of Life for Visual Effects. If I could automatically prevent a nomination, it would be Leonardo Dicaprio in Actor, and while I'm not actually predicting it to happen, I'm sending plenty of "please don't be nominated" vibes Jonah Hill's way as well.

Note: Since I've posted them, I've changed four predictions: In Supporting Actor, I've kicked Viggo Mortensen out of the top 5 and replaced him with Nick Nolte, in Original Screenplay I've replaced Win Win with Margin Call (and made Win Win my alternate instead of A Separation), and I've changed the alternates for Original Score and Animated Film.

Best Picture

The Artist

The Descendants

Hugo

The Help

Midnight in Paris

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

Alternate: War Horse

Best Director

Michel Hazanivicius-The Artist

Martin Scorsese-Hugo

Alexander Payne-The Descendants

Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris

Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life

Alternate-David Fincher-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Actor

George Clooney-The Descendants

Brad Pitt-Moneyball

Jean Dujardin-The Artist

Michael Fassbender-Shame

Leonardo Dicaprio-J. Edgar

Alternate-Michael Shannon-Take Shelter

Best Actress

Viola Davis-The Help

Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn

Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin

Glenn Close-Albert Nobbs

Alternate-Rooney Mara-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer-Beginners

Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn

Albert Brooks-Drive

Nick Nolte-Warrior

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Ides of March

Alternate: Jonah Hill-Moneyball

Best Supporting Actress

Octavia Spencer-The Help

Berenice Bejo-The Artist

Jessica Chastain-The Help

Shailene Woodley-The Descendants

Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs

Alternate-Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids

Original Screenplay

Midnight in Paris

The Artist

50/50

Bridesmaids

Margin Call

Alternate-Win Win

Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants

Moneyball

The Help

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Art Direction

Hugo

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

The Artist

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

The Help

Alternate: War Horse

Costume Design

Hugo

The Artist

Jane Eyre

The Help

Anonymous

Alternate: W.E.

Visual Effects

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Hugo

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

The Tree of Life

Alternate-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Makeup

The Iron Lady

Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Alternate-The Artist

Film Editing

The Artist

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Moneyball

War Horse

Alternate: The Descendants

Cinematography

The Tree of Life

The Artist

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

War Horse

Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Original Score

The Artist

War Horse

Hugo

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Alternate-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Sound Mixing

Hugo

Super 8

War Horse

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Alternate-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Sound Editing

Super 8

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Alternate: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Original Song

"Life's a Happy Song"-The Muppets

"Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets

"The Living Proof"-The Help

"Star Spangled Man"-Captain America: The First Avenger

"Lay Your Head Down"-Albert Nobbs

Alternate: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets

Animated Film

Rango

Puss in Boots

Kung Fu Panda 2

Arthur Christmas

Cars 2

Alternate-The Adventures of Tin Tin

Foreign Language Film

A Separation-Iran

In Darkness-Poland

Footnote-Israel

Omar Killed Me-Morocco

Monsieur Lazhar-Canada

Alternate-Pina-Germany

Documentary Feature

Project Nim

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Pina

Hell and Back Again

We Were Here

Alternate-Buck

There we have it! Tune in tomorrow to see everything that I got wrong!