Thursday, January 19, 2012

Oscar Predictions, Part 1: Best Picture

It's that time of year again; the magical one-month space in which I come back to play yet another blogging farewell tour, clogging everyone's news feed with Oscar predictions/preferences/general silliness. What can I say? It's tradition. Today, I'm starting my sure-to-be-scintillating five-part post predicting Oscar nominations, which are revealed Tuesday, Jan. 24th. Doing one post a day, I should be able to wrap everything up on Monday, just in time for y'all to see how many predictions I get wrong. Tomorrow, I'll do directing/screenplays, Saturday will be Acting, and Sunday will be Craft categories. I'll post final predictions on Monday, just to put everything in one convenient location.
Let's start with the big one, the only one that normal people will probably ever hear about: Best Picture. The Academy's done a funky thing this year. They've changed the rules: no less than 5 and no more than 10 movies will be nominated. To secure a spot, a film must land at least 5% of the total #1 spots on Academy voters' ballots. If more than 5 movies do this, then we'll have a bizarre number of nominees, like 9 (which just slays the obsessive-compulsive part of me). And we aren't going to know how many Best Picture nominees there will be until the presenter on Tuesday (the always-wonderful Jennifer Lawrence this year) stops reading. In other words, this year it's going to be hell to get everything right, and it's going to mess up statistics for decades to come. Whee!
Ok, to start off, I'm narrowing things down to three groups.
Group 1: Movies that are in for sure
Admittedly, there's no such thing as a sure thing, but any of these five movies missing would be a huge shock. They are:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
That's five movies. Potentially, that could be it. Five movies, five nominees. I don't think so, however. Too many other films have had success with other awards bodies/critics/box-office/etc. for there to be only five nominees. So, with that in mind:

Group 2: Movies that will be fighting like starving hobos for the extra slots
This is where it gets ugly, because up to five more movies *can* make it in. The trick is whether they will or not. The films most likely to fill out the nominee list to a respectable number are:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
All of these movies have something going for them. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, though not the most critically beloved movie of the year, has done surprisingly well with the Guilds (which are other industry awards) as well as the box office. It seems awards voters already feel like apologizing to David Fincher for last year's King's Speech triumph over The Social Network. I'm all for people admitting that The King's Speech is inferior, I just wish it would benefit a better film than Dragon Tattoo. Next up, Moneyball is a very successful, well-liked and respected film. I'm not sure it's got the passion to go the distance, though. Remember, movies need 5% of the #1 votes. That means that well-liked but not loved movies can fall to divisive movies with incredibly vocal fanbases. Which brings us to The Tree of Life. It's incredibly polarizing; some people call it a masterpiece, while plenty of other people can't even sit through the whole thing. Still, it's got awfully passionate support. And finally, War Horse. Once considered the front-runner, its less-than-enthusiastic reception with critics, audiences, and award-giving organizations means it's barely holding on. Old-fashioned voters may respond to War Horse as an ode to classic-era film-making, but they just might vote for Hugo or The Artist instead, which do the exact same cinema-homage thing without all the really poor directorial choices.
Now, these four films will almost undoubtedly fill out the rest of the nominees, but we've got one more group...
Group 3: Sneaky Bastards Who Might Ruin Someone's Day
In the unlikely event that there are 10 nominees, we'll need one more film. More likely, however, is that one of these films will sneak in and steal a spot from a movie in group 2. They are:
Bridesmaids
Drive
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Ides of March
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Now, I'm not saying that any of these films will be nominated. They all, however, have some kind of angle that could make them successful. Drive and Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, for instance, are adored by critics, and could find their way to the top of enough ballots. Bridesmaids has huge love and support in the industry, but being a raunchy comedy (however successful) makes it difficult to get serious Oscar traction. Harry Potter was also critically successful, made an obscene amount of money, and will surely benefit from the "let's reward the last one" thing that awards shows love to do. Still, it's Harry Potter, a franchise which has never taken off with the Academy (the most nominated film in the series was the first one, which received a whopping 3 technical citations). And finally, apparently someone somewhere loves The Ides of March, because it keeps popping up at these end of the year awards, even though know one quite knows why.
So, all that said:
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
The Artist
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
Midnight in Paris
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
Alternates (or if we have 10 nominees): War Horse*, Bridesmaids
*note: I really, really should be predicting War Horse, and reserve the right to change this before my final predictions on Monday. I just really, really need The Tree of Life in Best Picture: Dinosaurs! 30 minute long creation sequences! More random shots of nature than there is dialog! Please guys, just let me have something this bizarre become a Best Picture nominee.

Now, I know this is where I'll lose just about everyone, but I've got a couple of more obscure categories to get out of the way which just don't fit thematically with any of my other planned posts. So:

Best Animated Feature
From the start, I should tell you that I'm absolutely lost in this category. Sans the absence of a preordained Pixar win (sorry Cars 2, but everyone hates you), there's a strange vacuum in this category. Three movies seem likely: first, the undeniable front-runner, Rango, which is almost universally respected, for some reason. Next, Puss in Boots and Kung Fu Panda 2 were both successful and painless enough to secure a berth here. After that? Hell if I know. On the commercial side, possibilities include The Adventures of Tin Tin, which is respected by critics but the animation branch has yet to embrace an animated film made entirely with motion-capture technology. Arthur Christmas garnered largely positive reviews, but it was kind of a box-office flop. As stated before, Cars 2 was hated by most everyone, but chances are that the animation branch will give it a nod anyhow, because it's Pixar and this hasn't been a sterling year for animation. On the "pretty but stupid" front, we have Rio, which no one really loves but made tons of money. And finally, there's Winnie the Pooh, which is a really rather delightful movie, but will probably play too young for Oscar. Now, 2009's nomination for The Secret of Kells taught us that sometimes little foreign contenders will come along and make everyone look foolish. On that front, Wrinkles, Chico and Rita, or A Cat in Paris could all succeed, but I just don't know enough about any of them to feel confident predicting a nomination.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Rango
Puss in Boots
Kung Fu Panda 2
Arthur Christmas
Cars 2
Alternates: Rio, Wrinkles

Best Foreign Language Film
Here's another category that's a monster to predict, largely because most of these films will never come within 1000 miles of me. Every year, the Academy narrows this category down to 9 eligible films. This year, we have:
A Separation-Iran
Bullhead-Belgium
Footnote-Israel
In Darkness-Poland
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada
Omar Killed Me-Morocco
Pina-Germany
SuperClasico-Denmark
Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale-Taiwan
So let's start with what we do know. A Separation has been at the top of a bunch of best-of lists, it's won just about every foreign-film prize under the sun, and it's hugely respected and admired. It has to be in. Next, In Darkness is a holocaust movie from a previous Oscar nominee. This category can never say no to the Holocaust, so it's also in. Next? I just don't know much about many of these films. Bullhead is apparently strange and unpleasant, but hell, so was last year's nominee Dogtooth, so I guess it's got a shot. Israel is on a roll with nominations, and Footnote has won some minor film festival prizes, so it's got a good shot. I don't know anything about Monsieur Lazhar, but other, more knowledgeable prognosticators seem to think it's in the running, so that's good enough for me. The makers of Omar Killed Me have been nominated for their past two films, so odds are they'll find success again. And Pina? Well, this dance documentary has got the second-most recognition in the US, and it's supposed to be wonderful, but this category has never nominated a documentary before. I'm just not sure. Finally, Warriors of the Rainbow showed up out of nowhere, and seems to be more of a "See, we have an Asian film, we don't only watch European movies" choice than anything else.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
A Separation-Iran
In Darkness-Poland
Footnote-Israel
Omar Killed Me-Morocco
Monsieur Lazhar-Canada
Alternates: Pina-Germany, Bullhead-Belgium
(Can I just say that I hope both Iran and Israel are nominated, if only because it would make the most awkward nominees' luncheon table in decades?)

Best Documentary Feature
Here, annually, is the category about which I'm least educated and least passionate about. And to make it worse, this year's race is generally agreed to be a dull one, as critical favorites and crossover hits like Senna and The Interrupters and Tabloid were all deemed ineligible. So here are the things I do know: Project Nim, the monkey doc, is the front-runner, Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory apparently has a large following, and this branch will probably be much more susceptible to Pina than the foreign-language category will be. The rest of the predictions I'm just going to make up.
My predictions, in order of likelihood:
Project Nim
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Hell and Back Again
We Were Here
Alternates: Buck, Undefeated

Well, that does it for today. I'll return tomorrow with predictions for directing and screenplays! In the meantime, any movies you're rooting for? Actually, I suppose the more pertinent question is how many of the possible best picture nominees have you actually seen?



2 comments:

  1. I've read many many many articles and blogs on Best Picture Oscar Predictions and I'd have to say I agree with your thinking the most! I want so badly for The Tree of Life to be a nominee even if it takes 10 nominees to get it in!

    I'd like to see you be braver and shorten your Bastards list. ;)

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  2. Hmmm....I'd say of the Bastards, I really only think Bridesmaids and Drive have a chance. So, I suppose you can kick the rest of them out!

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