So, here's the deal: I absolutely should be writing a paper right now, but I've decided that I'm going to be a little naughty. Instead, you get all of my final Oscar predictions in one fell swoop. Lengthy? Yes. Awesome? Absolutely not. Necessary? Debatable. As good an excuse as any to not write about Confucianism? Definitely. So, here we go. I'll break down every category, and tell you who will win, who might win, and who should.
Best Picture
The nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
So, the conventional wisdom pretty much has this one narrowed down: The King's Speech will probably win. It's won the BAFTAs, the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, the Screen Actors Guild...Pretty much if there's a guild, The King's Speech has taken some piece of shiny hardware from it. But, just for funsies, let's look at the upset possibilities. Most obvious is The Social Network. It started the season as the frontrunner, and it still has some pretty considerable juice left to it. If anything else will win, it will be this one. Another (slim) possibility is The Fighter; I don't see it happening, but you never know. It's pretty well-liked. And finally, I seem to be the only one who thinks this way, but I honestly think Toy Story 3 has a tiny chance to upset. It makes the most sense, narrative-wise: Pixar has been cranking out great movies for years now, and this is a return to the franchise that started it all. Plus, pretty much no one hates this movie. It's going to be near the top of a lot of ballots, which is important when the winner is chosen based on overall rankings, not just the number of #1 votes.
Will Win: The King's Speech
Could Win: The Social Network
Dark Horse: Toy Story 3
Should Win: Black Swan
Best Director
The nominees:
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Let's get the obvious out of the way: the Coens won three years ago, so they won't win again. Darren Aronofsky is still too weird to get an Oscar. That leaves three options. Chances are David O. Russell won't have enough steam to muscle past the heavyweights in this category. Conventional wisdom suggests that the best picture picks up best director as well, but I'm going to go out on a limb here for The Social Network: I'm calling a split. This is probably a fool-hardy choice, but no Oscar night is complete without some kind of surprise, and here's where I think it's going to be.
Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Could Win: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Dark Horse: David O. Russell, The Fighter
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Best Actor
The nominees:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Don't really need commentary here. Colin Firth has all the momentum; it would be almost unthinkable for him to lose. Franco, Bardem, and Eisenberg all have pockets of support, but it's just not going to happen. This is one of the easiest predictions of the night.
Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Could Win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Dark Horse: James Franco, 127 Hours
Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours
Best Actress
The nominees:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
This race has me a little nervous. See, Natalie Portman absolutely deserves to win, and she's the perceived frontrunner, but I still can't help but feel like this movie is a little too cool for the Academy. Plus, the Bening camp has been making a stink lately, and many bloggers claim that the category is primed for an upset. Is it possible that Portman and Bening may divide the votes too much, and allow a third party to run away with the win? I don't think so, really. None of the other women have a passionate enough fanbase. If someone were to do it, though, it would be Nicole Kidman. Not likely, though.
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Could Win: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Dark Horse: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
First things first: Renner, Hawkes, and Ruffalo have no chance of winning whatsoever. Secondly: Christian Bale is almost guaranteed the win here. The only thing against him? There's talk of The King's Speech sweeping the Oscars; if it's as popular as people think, and it does sweep, who knows how many awards it could take? If The King's Speech sweeps, Geoffrey Rush could very plausibly steal the statue here.
Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Could Win: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Dark Horse: Jeremy Renner, The Town
Should Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
This category is fascinating, in that every single nominee could very easily win it. Let's break it down:
Melissa Leo has won the majority of the precursors, but she's splitting votes with costar Adams, who many people prefer. Plus, Leo had a bit of a campaigning mistake (she took out her own FYC ads), and the Academy doesn't look kindly on that. Still, both performances are loved, and either actress could win. Bonham-Carter could easily capitalize on a King's Speech sweep. Even if the film doesn't sweep though, she could still ride Colin Firth's coat-tails, and a fantastic and under-appreciated career, to the win. A lot of people love Steinfeld, and this category loves to give the Oscar to "supporting" actresses who are really the leads, but she is only 14, and many voters might choose to reward her later in her career. That leaves Weaver: she's fantastic, but her film is very small. She could win if enough voters see her film, but there's no guarantee that will happen. So what do I think? I don't know. I'll honestly be a bit surprised, no matter who takes the statue. I'm going to go with Bonham-Carter here, but Leo could still very easily pull off the win.
Will Win: Helena Bonham-Carter, The King's Speech
Could Win: (apart from everyone) Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Dark Horse: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Should Win: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees:
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The King's Speech is a universally loved frontrunner for Best Picture. I don't see it losing here. The Kids Are All Right could surprise, and Inception did win the Writers Guild, but at the end of the day, only one movie's going to win here.
Will Win: The King's Speech
Could Win: The Kids Are All Right
Dark Horse: Inception
Should Win: The Kids Are All Right
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Same story as above. The Social Network is a beloved best picture front-runner, and has been cited time and again for it's screenplay. This is the one place where this film is almost guaranteed a win. Though, much as I love The Social Network, it would be pretty cool to see Pixar take this away.
Will Win: The Social Network
Could Win: Toy Story 3
Dark Horse: True Grit
Should Win: The Social Network
Art Direction
The nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit
Two ideas at war here: 1) The King's Speech is the BP frontrunner, it could sweep, and people love its production design. 2) No Tim Burton film nominated for Art Direction has ever lost. Could Speech and Alice split the vote and make room for Inception? Definitely possible.
Will Win: The King's Speech
Could Win: Alice in Wonderland
Dark Horse: Inception
Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Costume Design
The nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Reprise the Art Direction discussion: Alice vs. The King's Speech. I'm a little more confident on this one, though, as only two fantasy films have won this award (Star Wars and LOTR: The Return of the King), and this award has gone to a period royalty drama for five years in a row.
Will Win: The King's Speech
Could Win: Alice in Wonderland
Dark Horse: True Grit
Should Win: I Am Love
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
Inception wins this in a walk. Easiest call of the night.
Will Win: Inception
Could Win: Alice in Wonderland
Dark Horse: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Should Win: Inception
Makeup
The nominees:
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
This category is awfully interesting, because none of the films are nominated in any other category, and none of the nominees have been honored for makeup at any time during the precursor circuit. Essentially, any of them could win. The Wolfman has tons of obvious effects, Barney's Version has lots of aging, which the Academy loves, and in The Way Back, apparently people get sunburn. Really, throw a dart and you'll make as accurate prediction as I will. Hell, I've only seen one of these movies, so I'm definitely guessing blind here. That being said, Wolfman's Rick Baker has won six times before, so the Academy must like him.
Will Win: The Wolfman
Could Win: Barney's Version
Dark Horse: The Way Back
Should Win (abstain)
Film Editing
The nominees:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network
This contest is between the two best picture frontrunners. If The King's Speech takes this, then I'd expect it to take most everything that it's nominated for. I figure The Social Network's complex rhythms will emerge victorious here, even if the win won't mean much for its overall chances in other races.
Will Win: The Social Network
Could Win: The King's Speech
Dark Horse: The Fighter
Should Win: The Social Network
Cinematography
The nominees:
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Yet another race that could fall victim to The King's Speech sweeping the awards. A more likely scenario, though, is the Academy finally recognizing demigod Richard Deakins for his work on True Grit: it's pretty, it has landscapes, it's in a Western, he's overdue. All the right ingredients are there. Watch out for Wally Pfister and Inception, though. It did win the American Cinematographers Association award.
Will Win: True Grit
Could Win: The King's Speech
Dark Horse: Inception
Should Win: Black Swan
Original Score
The nominees:
127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Here's a place where the Academy can honor The King's Speech, you know, in case they get sick of honoring it in 11 other categories. The Social Network is a definite possibility, as is Inception. Still, I think boring and traditional is going to save the day here.
Will Win: The King's Speech
Could Win: The Social Network
Dark Horse: Inception
Should Win: How to Train Your Dragon
Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit
Inception seems the likely choice here, but True Grit did win the Cinema Audio Society, and I've heard complaints about Inception's mix. Still, it's the biggest and the loudest. Plus, Salt isn't well-liked enough, The Social Network is too subtle, and I desperately hope they don't love The King's Speech *that* much.
Will Win: Inception
Could Win: True Grit
Dark Horse: The King's Speech (I'm getting so sick of including this in every category as a win possibility)
Should Win: Inception
Sound Effects Editing
The nominees:
Inception
Toy Story 3
TRON Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
Same story as before, only Inception has even less competition.
Will Win: Inception
Could Win: True Grit
Dark Horse: Toy Story 3
Should Win: TRON Legacy
Original Song
The nominees:
"If I Rise"-127 Hours
"Coming Home"-Country Strong
"I See the Light"-Tangled
"We Belong Together"-Toy Story 3
So Country Strong's not going to win. Past that, though, is anybody's guess. "If I Rise" won the Golden Globe in this category, but a lot of people don't like the song, or the movie. "I See the Light" is the only place to recognize Tangled, but obviously this movie doesn't have a huge amount of Academy love, since it wasn't nominated in animated feature. Alan Menken has won four times before, though. Is that a plus or a minus? I think the likeliest outcome is Toy Story 3: this category is a good place for voters to honor the film outside of animated feature. Plus, the song is bouncy, fun, and Randy Newman, of whom they're quite fond. Still, this category could go any of three ways, and it'll be interesting to see where the Oscar ends up.
Will Win: "We Belong Together"-Toy Story 3
Could Win: "I See the Light"-Tangled
Dark Horse: "If I Rise"-127 Hours
Should Win: "We Belong Together"-Toy Story 3
Animated Film
The nominees:
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
I don't think commentary is necessary here.
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Could Win: How to Train Your Dragon
Dark Horse: The Illusionist
Should Win: Toy Story 3
Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
Above the Law-Algeria
Biutiful-Mexico
Dogtooth-Greece
In a Better World-Denmark
Incendies-Canada
Dogtooth won't win. Above the Law probably won't either. Some say Biutiful has the advantage, as it's the only film here to show up in any other category. It also has plenty of detractors, though. Incendies is either loved or hated. I'm thinking In A Better World for the win: it's supposed to be very good, and Susanne Bier, the director, has won here before.
Will Win: In a Better World-Denmark
Could Win: Incendies-Canada
Dark Horse: Biutiful-Mexico
Should Win: Dogtooth-Greece
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land
I feel like this should be pretty sewn up. Inside Job is allegedly very good, topical, and emotional. Then again, so are all the others. Waste Land is the crowd-pleaser, but it's subject is pretty lightweight. Gasland probably won't win. I'd love to see Restrepo take the prize, but my gut tells me it won't. Smart money is on Inside Job, but I'm gonna be silly and go with Exit Through the Gift Shop, because I bet the Academy wants to see what happens if Banksy wins an Oscar just as much as I do.
Will Win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Could Win: Inside Job
Dark Horse: Waste Land
Should Win: Restrepo
There we have it. For those keeping score at home, films with multiple wins break down like this:
The King's Speech-7
The Social Network-3
Inception-3
Toy Story 3-2
I guess we'll see how things turn out, huh? What about y'all any predictions?
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