Art Direction
Hugo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Artist
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Help
Alternates: War Horse, The Tree of Life
So the top three are definitely in. The bottom two aren't as set, but Tinker, Tailor has to show up somewhere, and I imagine The Help is going to rack up a pretty impressive nomination total. War Horse and The Tree of Life both have support, but I don't think it's enough. For some more adventurous options, they might consider Pirates of the Caribbean or Captain America. Alternately, if they're feeling less adventurous, Anonymous might slide in.
Costume Design
Hugo
The Artist
Jane Eyre
The Help
Anonymous
Alternates: W.E., Captain America: The First Avenger
Hugo and The Artist are golden. Jane Eyre and The Help are solid enough, and I can't imagine the Academy not responding to all the frills in Anonymous. It kind of bugs me, not having a wacky nomination in there, which is why W.E. is so close to the top. I'd like to think they're adventurous enough to do something like Captain America or (even more unlikely/more fun) Thor or Immortals, but chances are they might spring for something more traditional like My Week with Marilyn instead.
Visual Effects
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
Alternates: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Captain America: The First Avenger
Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think The Tree of Life's spectacular creation scenes are going to find a home here. It's probably more likely that a more standard, CGI-driven affair will take the 5th spot instead, but I can hope, can't I? Incidentally, the Academy has already narrowed this category down to ten finalists. The other three possibilities are Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, X-Men: First Class, and Real Steel. Either of the first two also have a strong shot for the 5th spot, which is really the only one up for grabs.
Makeup
The Iron Lady
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternates: The Artist, Hugo
Similar to the Visual Effects category, this one has been narrowed to seven finalists. The Iron Lady is full of very competent aging makeup, so it's in. When something as obscure as Gainsbourg makes the top seven, then it's not a good idea to bet against it going all the way. That leaves one spot, which I imagine will be carried by "last chance to reward it" sentiments for Harry Potter. Watch out for The Artist, though. The other two finalists that I have yet to mention are Albert Nobbs and Anonymous, but I can't see either of them making it. This category is notoriously finnicky, though, so who knows what's going to happen?
Film Editing
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Moneyball
War Horse
Alternates: The Descendants, Drive
This category tends to go for best picture hopefuls and the occasional action movie. As such, I really ought to have The Descendants in the top 5, but I have a hunch that Moneyball will make it in. Maybe War Horse isn't in the top 5? Dunno. If it's going to get nominated anywhere, it's probably here. Extra cool points to the Academy for nominating Drive or The Tree of Life; both possible, but unlikely.
Cinematography
The Tree of Life
The Artist
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse
Alternates: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The top three (maybe four) spots are completely locked in. War Horse looks awfully vulnerable, but I'm leaving it for now. Either Tinker, Tailor's icy lensing or Harry Potter's attempts at iconic imagery could easily sneak in here. Possible Drive or Moneyball, but don't count on it. I feel like this category's primed for a really surprising nominee, but I've no idea what it would be. Which makes sense, given that it's a surprise.
Original Score
The Artist
War Horse
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alternates: The Help, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
This category's really tough. I'm only 100% confident on The Artist. All the other slots could be taken by the alternates, or by Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Adventures of Tin Tin, Jane Eyre, The Skin I Live In, or some other mystery soundtrack. Who knows? I've got Extremely Loud here because that movie's got to end up in some category, and this seems like the safest call. Shame the composer, Alexandre Desplat, isn't taking the spot for his more effective work on Harry Potter.
Sound Mixing
Hugo
Super 8
War Horse
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Alternates: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
I honestly think the sound categories are the absolute hardest categories to predict this year. I'm prepared to only get one or two right come Tuesday morning. Watch out for Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol, Hanna, and The Adventures of Tin Tin, just to name a few.
Sound Editing
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
Mission: Impossible--Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Alternates: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
I just might go 0/5 in this category. It's that tough. Rango, Hugo, and The Adventures of Tin Tin linger on the edges.
Original Song
"Life's a Happy Song"-The Muppets
"Pictures in My Head"-The Muppets
"The Living Proof"-The Help
"Star Spangled Man"-Captain America: The First Avenger
"Lay Your Head Down"-Albert Nobbs
Alternates: "Man or Muppet"-The Muppets, "Hello Hello"-Gnomeo and Juliet
I hate predicting this category. Its nomination process is bizarre (it involves a ten-point ranking system), the number of nominees isn't set (there could be 2-5 nominees, or no nominees at all), and the Academy never follows a pattern. That said, two Muppet songs are in (but only two, because that's the limit on nominations in this category for each movie). Past that? I don't know. These five have seemed like the most likely choices for about five months now, which of course means that at least one of them is wrong. Possible spoilers include "Bridge of Light" from Happy Feet 2, "Where the River Goes" from Footloose, "The Keeper" from Machine Gun Preacher, and "Think You Can Wait" from Win Win.
There we have it! I'll put all my predictions in one place tomorrow, but for now, they're all done. I just need to wait and see what I've gotten wrong! And really, being wrong is probably half the fun of predicting Oscars anyway.
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