Is everything fundamentally broken and is the world a hollow shell of what it once was? Yes, but consider: what if also no?
Maybe I should start from the beginning, or barring that (as I am unwilling, and possibly unable, to transcribe the history of history, the written word, visual media, and California-based awards bodies in the amount of time it will take me to finish listening to the Marty Supreme soundtrack), I'll start about a year back. In my Oscar prediction post from last year, I mentioned how the narrative of the Oscars tends to map onto the narrative of the year at large--or at least it lets me shamelessly project it there whilst clasping my tinfoil hat and dreaming of a better tomorrow. If 2025 was a morass of uncertainty and disappointment in a world spinning off its axis, the movie year followed suit (and was, arguably, the more serious issue). Prestige releases floundered, guaranteed box-office hits collapsed underneath their own weight--just imagine, the new Avatar has only made about $300 million in profit so far, are these the end times?--and people looked for escape by getting as weird with it as they could. To paraphrase the 2018 version of Susy Bannion, that wisest of all the dancing sages: the world's a mess. Why are people so ready to believe that the worst is already over?
I'm deploying this exceptionally cheerful and not at all overblown framing device to account for the fact that our potential crop of Oscar nominees this year is a strange and unruly bunch that mirrors the world around it--how else to explain that a full seven of the twelve most likely best picture nominees are horror movies or political thrillers? (And then, to the side, Brad Pitt is driving his little race car, because newly-50-something Gen Xers also need to be loved and validated.) Hell, even the biggest, baitiest prestige hits involve a prominently featured child corpse, Geza Röhrig getting honey licked off his hirsute torso inside a concentration camp, and an immigrant getting thrown to his death for no reason, just for fun. It's a strange mix of movies--implausible even--that can partly be attributed to a seeming dearth of quality prestige fare and partly to a fast-growing and more adventurous body of voters in the Academy, but has to, at least in part, reflect how the Academy, like liquids and cats, changes shape to fit the shape of its container.
All of this is to say that it's time to buckle up, because either things are going to get weird or the failed prestige films are going to do their best impression of Hamlet's dad and come crawling back early in the morning after dying at a nice banquet thrown to try and bolster their popularity and scream at us about how Bradley Cooper will die before he releases a movie that your mother wouldn't be willing to call 'nice.' Guillermo Del Toro's superhero update of Frankenstein hitting double-digit nominations? Why not? That sleeper horror hit about missing kids muscling past James goddamn Cameron and his nightmare cadre of blue enforcers to get into best picture? Bring it on! A gory vampire musical and a perma-stoned paranoid satire/thriller/family drama/action movie/showcase of Benicio Del Toro's stellar white pants both tying or breaking the record for most nominated movie of all time in the most implausible battle to the death since my sister and I bought a gallon bucket of dessert that just turned out to be whipped cream piled on a half inch of limpid sponge cake? Anything is possible! I have dusted off very special insanity socks and am prepared for madness.
Oscar nominations come out tomorrow morning, just in time for me to send a link of this post to my dissertation advisor as an explanation for why I deserve not two, but ten PhDs, one for each field pertaining to one of the best picture nominees (because what is less worthless than on humanities PhD than ten humanities PhDs?), and all of my speculation will become meaningless, but that's part of the fun, isn't it? Oscar predictions flow like water, and it's always a joy to pretend to swim before Diane Warren drowns you in her annual Oscar paddle pool, thus fulfilling the blood sacrifice with Lord Upuhaut, the mighty wolf of darkness that (presumably) controls the Academy's music branch. Do note that I tend to let my sillier impulses take over (he says, not 20 words after invoking Diane Warren's blood ritual), which means that I'm not always aiming for sheer accuracy. There are plenty of websites to help you nail every category, but I'm here to make you consider what would happen if the Academy wanted to demonstrate their eldritch power by making you watch The Electric State and The Ballad of a Small Player in a fit of horrible completism. Worse things could happen, and probably will tomorrow morning, so let's get to it!
(note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood, so the first movie listed is the most likely, the second is the next most likely, etc.)
Best Picture
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Sentimental Value
Train Dreams
The Secret Agent
Weapons
Bugonia
Alternate: It Was Just an Accident
The through-line of the next eighteen categories is going to be asking, again and again, how many nominations One Battle After Another and Sinners can rack up. I mentioned that both could tie or break the nomination record (currently 14), and that wasn't a joke--most predictions I've seen have at least one hitting that threshold. I, however, am laboring under the delusion that most movies that threaten to hit that number find a way of fumbling it at the finish line (think The Shape of Water coming up empty in both Visual Effects and Makeup, Barbie falling flat on its face, etc.). So every category from here on out will be a rationalization of why I think each of those will get exactly 13 nominations (...spoiler alert). Elsewhere, this category feels like it ought to be volatile, but for the total lack of compelling challengers to oust any of these movies out of the top 10. I'd say anything Train Dreams and after doesn't feel totally safe, but what's going to replace them? It Was Just an Accident could, but then we'd have a full third of the nominees being in a language other than English, which feels implausible (there only having been two years so far in Academy history with two non-English language best picture nominees). F1, Wicked: For Good, and Avatar: Fire and Ash are all holding the line for blockbusters with middling to poor reviews that are nevertheless trying to fail up in the most spectacular fashion, and I wouldn't be shocked to see F1 make it (that is, shocked from a prognosticating standpoint--I remain eternally baffled as to what people see in this dumb little car movie). Beyond that, it's more international movies (like No Other Choice and Sirat) that don't have the juice to muscle past the other, bigger international contenders, indies like Blue Moon, The Testament of Ann Lee, and Sorry, Baby, none of which never took off like they needed to, and fallen Oscar bait like Jay Kelly and Is This Thing On?, which, come on, seriously. (Watch, now Bradley Cooper will ride triumphantly into the Dolby again on a horse made out of Golden Globes and I will be forced to eat my special insanity socks.) As I said in the intro, chaos reigns, which means that Oscar voters are going to have to make time for Aunt Gladys's murder tree and Jesse Plemons bludgeoning people while covered in bees.
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler-Sinners
Chloe Zhao-Hamnet
Josh Safdie-Marty Supreme
Kleber Mendonca Filho-The Secret Agent
Alternate: Jafar Panahi-It Was Just An Accident
Bucking the conventional wisdom here, which suggests that Panahi or Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value will take the perennial cool international spot, but The Secret Agent's topical as hell, its popularity has been surging, and Filho's star is on the rise. Plus, as last year showed us, the Academy can go absolutely feral for 70s-set Brazilian political dramas when given the opportunity. I'm doing my level best to manifest Frankenstein's failure wherever possible (I've collaged a dream board that consists of nothing but Dr. Frankenstein becoming a successful mid-level pediatrician while his monster works in a cubicle, wondering what might have been), but don't be surprised to see Guillermo Del Toro slide in here, despite my best efforts.
Actress
Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Emma Stone-Bugonia
Renate Reinsve-Sentimental Value
Jennifer Lawrence-Die My Love
Alternate: Chase Infiniti-One Battle After Another
That's right, kids--I'm kicking off my 'One Battle/Sinners in the dreaded 6th place' promotional campaign by assuming that the Academy still loves Jennifer Lawrence enough to welcome her back into the fold, despite the odds (anyone remember her nomination for Joy, because I sure do). Obviously Infiniti is the likelier choice, or Amanda Seyfried's righteous warbles in The Testament of Ann Lee, but I'm going to assume that the Academy cohort that gave Lawrence four nominations in five years is just happy to see her out and about again. I've seen plenty of arguments for Kate Hudson sneaking in with late-stage mom hit Song Sung Blue, but that feels like the Last Showgirl-esque kind of narrative that feels wildly plausible before the nominations which everyone pretends they never believed the second nominations are announced.
Actor
Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme
Leonardo Dicaprio-One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke-Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
Wagner Moura-The Secret Agent
Alternate: Joel Edgerton-Train Dreams
These five seem somewhat inevitable to me--the first four look like a done deal, and I can hardly argue for a Wagner Moura snub when I've got a surprise Secret Agent best director nomination. I'll admit that I've had the terrible suspicion that Michael B. Jordan will be ignored--once again--for stellar work in genre fare, but haven't been brave or sad enough to actually predict it. If that happens, or if I'm wrong about The Secret Agent's popularity, my heart would like to believe that Plemons gets in for his latest (and maybe career-best) DPwaVed (deranged person with a vision) performance (see, it sounded like depraved, I accept venmo). But my brain tells me that the shuffling twilight beast made up of four terrible prestige limbs (Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams, Dwayne Johnson/The Smashing Machine, Jeremy Allen White/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Oscar Isaac/Frankenstein) takes it instead. Tremble, mortals. (Sidebar: once, while struggling to name my favorite actors for a cinephile friend, I said "I dunno, Joel Edgerton, I guess?" and my friend said "are you serious?" and then we had to change the subject so he could continue to respect me. Poor Joel. He doesn't deserve to be a leg of the shuffling prestige beast, but here we are.)
Supporting Actress
Teyana Taylor-One Battle After Another
Amy Madigan-Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku-Sinners
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas-Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande-Wicked: For Good
Alternate: Odessa A'zion-Marty Supreme
Wildly volatile category here, in that I wouldn't be shocked by any of the above women failing to get the nomination. A'zion could easily slip in, as could Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value. Is Taylor's role too small, especially in the face of the Academy's love of rewarding lead performances here? Is a horror villain really going to get in, even if she gives one of the best performances of the year? Are Mosaku and Lilleaas not well-known enough, is Wicked's critical belly flop going to take her out of the running? Should we expect something totally bananas, like a Regina Hall/One Battle After Another surprise or Nina goddamn Hoss finally getting a nomination for Hedda? Really interesting, potentially surprising category, which usually means that the most obvious answer is the right one, so there you have it.
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro-One Battle After Another
Sean Penn-One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard-Sentimental Value
Jacob Elordi-Frankenstein
Paul Mescal-Hamnet
Alternate: Delroy Lindo-Sinners
Really the victim of my own rules here. Every molecule in my dumb little body says that Sinners will score a nod here, either for Lindo or Miles Caton, but that'd push it to 14 nominations, and for whatever reason I don't believe that can happen, so we're all stuck with Paul Mescal glumly to be or not to be-ing directly into the camera. Strangely stunted category, though--is there anyone other than those seven men who has even a chance?
Original Screenplay
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
It Was Just An Accident
Weapons
Alternate: The Secret Agent
Another really interesting category here, one primed for some upsets. Despite its sudden an inexplicable loss of momentum, I anticipate It Was Just an Accident scoring here over other, buzzier potential best picture nominees, and I have to believe that Weapons is clever and memorable enough to overcome the horror bias (my god you guys, my dumb heart yearns so desperately for a big morning for Weapons). Is it silly not to include The Secret Agent in the top five after being so giddy about its chances everywhere else? Probably! Are Sorry, Baby and Blue Moon the more obvious and writerly options? It's possible! Anything goes, which means that my dumb heart is gonna go for what it wants.
Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Train Dreams
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Alternate: No Other Choice
A severely unpopulated field this year--after these six, it's like, Wake Up Dead Man and then Nuremberg, heaven help us. I'd like to imagine that Park Chan-wook finally gets the Oscar success that's been eluding his career for decades now, but somehow, against all odds, a Frankenstein adaptation that has a character turn to the camera and say "you're the real monster, Frankenstein!" is going to be lauded for its writing prowess. The mind reels.
Production Design
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Alternate: Hamnet
Sure it might seem strange to you, a filthy casual, for me to burn up one of my precious One Battle nominations on production design, since I'm only allowing it 13 nominations. But let's look at its competition, assuming the first four are safe (which is maybe a big if; am I too bullish on Marty Supreme? Is Wicked going to tank?). I can't shake the feeling that Hamnet is going to stumble a little on nominations morning, and here's a good place to do it, as the film mostly takes place outside and/or in a series of gray rooms. I'm going out on a limb and predicting that Avatar: Fire and Ash will be almost entirely shut out (sorry, James, guess you forgot to put an awards setting on your submersible), The Fantastic Four: First Steps would be a great nominee here, but Marvel movies almost never get nominated for anything but visual effects unless they're Black Panther, and things like The Phoenician Scheme and Hedda feel like long shots anyway. No, I think One Battle's sweep carries it into this category, contemporary setting be damned.
Costume Design
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Alternate: Hedda
I'm weirdly confident about these five. Most people are opting for a lone nominee here, Hedda or Kiss of the Spider Woman or The Testament of Ann Lee, but we live in an Oscar ecosystem that eats lone nominees for breakfast, so look to the prestige period dramas to carry the day. I almost jumped for a international bolt from the blue--The Ugly Stepsister or Kokuho, for example--but lost my nerve at the last second. Still, if that happens, remember that you heard it here first and that I totally predicted it in my (and your) heart.
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Superman
The Lost Bus
Jurassic World: Rebirth
Alternate: The Electric State
In this, the most vexing of categories, I have elected to split a particular gordian knot. Surely there has been some hand-wringing about whether Avatar would lose this award to a best picture nominee--F1, Sinners, or Frankenstein, say--given that non-best picture nominees almost never win this category over best picture nominees. Well, friends, I have solved this particular conundrum by assuming that there won't be any best picture nominees here. Sinners has the kind of supporting effects that critics' awards love that the Oscars don't, and Frankenstein was almost totally iced out (heh) by the Visual Effects Society awards, so we'll toss those two out. That makes it an unholy slap-fest between movies that made no one smile: Jurassic World, The Electric State, and Tron: Ares. I choose to walk in the light of the lord, which is to say I assume that voters will remember Jonathan Bailey's slutty little glasses fondly and give them their day in the sun.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
The Smashing Machine
Nuremberg
The Ugly Stepsister
Alternate: Marty Supreme
Another volatile category--isn't it refreshing to have an actual-ass competition this year? I could see any potential nominee but Frankenstein missing, and any potential nominee in the previously announced shortlist getting in. Still, if I'm predicting that Sinners and One Battle After Another won't break any records, then they have to miss here--which makes sense to me, as horror effects almost never get in and a One Battle nom would be indicative of a groupthink-y sweep in the one category that most frequently resists nominating best picture contenders just because they're best picture contenders. It's tempting to assume that Timothée's horrible little mustache will be immortalized in the annals of Oscar history, but I'm going for the things this branch more commonly loves--fat suits and showy prosthetics--to win the day.
Film Editing
One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Sinners
F1
Hamnet
Alternate: Frankenstein
I tried again and again to make room for something more fun, something with slightly neater editing, like No Other Choice, Weapons, or The Secret Agent, but again and again came up against the seemingly invincible adage that this category will always just grab best picture contenders out of a lineup and skip off with a song in its heart--the most boring lineup is usually the correct one. And, I suppose, F1 is already occupying the showy editing slot (you can tell it's got the best editing because the cars go fast).
Cinematography
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Frankenstein
The Ballad of A Small Player
Alternate: Hamnet
Today I choose chaos, and chaos today foresees a world in which the Oscars continue to force me to engage with Edward Berger movies, The Ballad of a Small Player coming out of nowhere to personally antagonize me. The smarter money is obviously a big best picture player like Hamnet or Marty Supreme, or maybe a littler best picture player like F1 or Bugonia, but nope, I'm going with the future in which the Academy punishes me, specifically. (Will I also be punished for not picking Nouvelle Vague, given this branch's predilection for black and white? It's not impossible, but I will persevere.)
Original Score
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
Hamnet
Alternate: F1
Marty Supreme's wacky 80s synths might be too wacky and 80s for this branch, one which has never really warmed up to the simple joys of a middle-aged divorcée beating the shit out of a row of buttons, but the heart wants what it wants. It would probably be wise to consider branch favorites Hans Zimmer (F1) or Nicholas Britell (Jay Kelly), or wacky upstarts like Sirat or Bugonia, but I'm sticking with the weepy buttons, and no one on this earth can stop me.
Sound
Sinners
F1
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
Sirat
Alternate: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Another category that finds me absurdly confident, despite Avatar and Wicked being much more traditional nominees and Mission: Impossible and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere offering the general kinds of action/music hijinks that usually succeed here. But this category has (tragically) been trending toward big contenders lately, which gives Frankenstein an edge, and Sirat was too successful throughout awards season and on the Academy shortlists to think that it won't appear anywhere, so here it is! (Y'all, what even is Sirat? No one is willing to give an answer other than 'it's weird and upsetting, you'll love it' and I am so hyped.)
Original Song
"Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
"I Lied to You"-Sinners
"Dear Me"-Diane Warren: Relentless
"Dying to Live"-Billy Idol Should Be Dead
"Our Love"-The Ballad of Wallis Island
Alternate: "Last Time (I Seen the Sun)-Sinners
Divinely ridiculous of me to shun the other Sinners song and both new Wicked tracks in favor of some lesser-known contenders, but I am, if nothing else, divinely ridiculous, and this is my party. Besides, this category has shown us time and time again that a) any older music superstar that pens something for a movie during the year is likely to get recognized, b) this category has no problem sweeping bigger contenders out of the way for nominees that make you go "I'm sorry, what?" (forever remembering that brisk winter morning in January of 2010 when our perceptions of reality all had to collectively shift to accommodate Paris 36 springing suddenly and fully formed into being, just in time to make us all wonder what a "Loin de Paname" was). ...So like, given that logic, I should be predicting a Viva Verdi! nomination, but I don't want to fly too close to the sun.
Casting
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Alternate: Weapons
It's a new category! That's right, for the first time in my Oscar prediction career, and only the second time in my lifetime, there's a new category to consider, and I'm going to commemorate this momentous occasion by making the most boring predictions possible. There's been lots of discussion about whether this branch is going to go their own way or just rubber stamp the biggest best picture contenders. While I would like to imagine that they'll be weird like the makeup and visual effects branch and will get a Weapons/Wicked/Sirat/Secret Agent/Sinners lineup or something equally delightful, I'm going to assume they'll make the duller choice until they prove me wrong. Prove me wrong, casting directors! You can make the world a stranger, more beautiful place! Choose courage and don't nominate Frankenstein! (Honestly though, if Frankenstein gets in I will simply choose death.)
Animated Film
Kpop Demon Hunters
Zootopia 2
Arco
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
Endless Cookie
Alternate: Elio
Speaking of flying too close to the sun, I'm predicting that Pixar misses out here (which has only happened to six of the twenty-eight eligible movies it has released since this category's inception) in favor of a weird little Canadian movie that no one is talking about. But hey, this category's really been going its own way lately. Sure, if I'm replacing Pixar, it'd make more sense to pick a buzzier indie title like Scarlet or A Magnificent Life, a buzzier mainstream movie like In Your Dreams or The Bad Guys 2, or even Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle, the improbable anime box-office smash whose title would surely go down as one of the longest in Oscar nominee history, but nope, I'm sticking with the animated Canadian documentary. We really can all be giants if we choose to be.
International Film
Sentimental Value-Norway
The Secret Agent-Brazil
It Was Just an Accident-France
No Other Choice-South Korea
Sirat-Spain
Alternate: The Voice of Hind Rajib-Tunisia
The same five movies have garnered the nominations in this category from basically every awards-giving body, and sure, I know all the cool kids are predicting a high-profile snub in favor of something smaller like Hind Rajib, Left-Handed Girl, Sound of Falling, Palestine 36, Belen, or whatever, but I am going to be the even cooler kid by predicting that the biggest surprise in this category is that there are no big surprises.
Documentary Feature
2000 Meters to Andriivka
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 -- Last Air in Moscow
Cutting Through Rocks
Alternate: The Perfect Neighbor
Screw it: every year, this category sets us up with an obvious nominee/winner, and every year, this category yanks that obvious nominee out from under us like a particularly documentary-enthused Lucy to our hapless Charlie Brown. It's clear that critics and audiences just don't mesh with this branch's very specific tastes, so I'm leaving undeniable frontrunner The Perfect Neighbor out of the running. In favor of what? Haha like I'd know, I haven't seen any of these movies. As I said last year (and, I assume, will say every year from now on): Behold! The darts I have thrown.
And there you have it! For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
Sinners-13
One Battle After Another-13
Frankenstein-10
Hamnet-9
Marty Supreme-9
I'm not sure how confident I feel about any of these, but how confident do I feel about anything other than the fact that one day the sun will explode? Confidence is overrated--I'm here to encourage the Oscars to be a little dumb about it all.
As always, I know it's silly to spend this many words on Oscar nominations without having talked about my own picks, and those are surely on the way (assuming, of course, that I survive/and or finish my dissertation revisions in a timely fashion, which is maybe the biggest if in a universe of massive, floating ifs, like if the opening crawl from Star Wars were just a celestial cloud of uncertainty). For now, I'll say that if I could guarantee any outcome, it'd be for Weapons to have a big morning (if only for the novelty, but also because it deserves it), and if I could prevent any nomination, I'd opt for an Adapted Screenplay apocalypse in which Frankenstein and Hamnet--arguably two of the worst screenplays of the year--are consigned to the hell they belong. Hey, throw in Train Dreams and One Battle After Another. Complete Adapted Screenplay overhaul! Make that category unrecognizable!
And that's it for now! In about 13 hours, all thes epredictions will mean nothing, which is just how I like it. I'll be back in the morning to unpack the fresh horrors that await, but until then, feel free to share your hopes and dreams, so that they can join mine in the Academy garbage chute tomorrow morning!
