Oscar Winner Predictions, Part 3: Tech Awards

Last day of winner predictions. I'll try to keep the commentary brief, as there are more than a few tech awards to get through. So here we go!

Best Art Direction
The nominees:
Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

It's hard to argue against Avatar here. They created an entire world out of scratch. Sherlock Holmes did win at the Art Directors Guild, however, and Nine is a traditional sort of winner. Still, I can't see anyone taking Avatar down.
Winner: Avatar
Alterante: Sherlock Holmes
Dark Horse: Nine

Costume Design
The nominees:
Bright Star
Coco Avant Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

The Academy loves their period royalty, as evidenced by the winners for the past three years in a row (The Duchess, Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Marie Antoinette). That makes this category The Young Victoria's to lose. Nine is awfully flashy, and Bright Star has a devoted fanbase.
Winner: The Young Victoria
Alternate: Nine
Dark Horse: Bright Star

Visual Effects
The nominees:
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

No need for commentary.
Winner: Avatar
Alternate: District 9
Dark Horse: Star Trek

Makeup
The nominees:
Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

Star Trek has this in the bag. The other two nominees, frankly, aren't well-liked enough to pull an upset over one of the biggest hits of the year.
Winner: Star Trek
Alternate: The Young Victoria
Dark Horse: Il Divo

Film Editing
The nominees:
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

This category is both incredibly important and quite difficult to call. Whoever wins this has a very good chance of winning Best Picture. That said, I'm defaulting to The Hurt Locker. Avatar is a real threat however, as the Academy loves to reward action movies here. Inglourious Basterds could also sneak in if the film has more support than I think it does.
Winner: The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Avatar
Dark Horse: Inglourious Basterds

Cinematography
The nominees:
Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

This category is infuriating, in that every nominee has a potential case to win. Avatar is gorgeous, and people may be looking to check it off across the tech board, but it's also possible that people will react negatively to its largely computer-generated world. The Hurt Locker is the Best Picture front-runner, and is a technical masterpiece, but could be too gritty, as voters prefer postcard-pretty films here. Inglourious Basterds is a very formal, classically made film with iconic images, but could have trouble pushing past the others. The White Ribbon is pretty and black-and-white, which doesn't hurt, but arguably the least seen film of the bunch. And Harry Potter could be considered one of the most stereotypically pretty films in the group, but, let's be honest, it's a Harry Potter movie. They have yet to win an Oscar, and, if they do, I don't know if it will be in a more 'prestigious' tech category like this one. Like film editing, this category will be a good barometer for which film has Academy support on Sunday night.
Winner: Avatar
Alternate: The Hurt Locker
Dark Horse: Inglourious Basterds

Original Score
The nominees:
Avatar
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

This one's easier. Michael Giacchino, who scored Up, has won most every prize out there. Plus, his contributions to Up are, arguably, more instrumental (pardon the pun), to his film's success than any of the other composers. Avatar could pull a win here, but James Horner's already got an Oscar; they might not want to reward him again just yet.
Winner: Up
Alternate: Avatar
Dark Horse: The Hurt Locker

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

This is between two movies: Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Plenty of bloggers have been arguing for a split of the sound categories, tossing this one to The Hurt Locker's complicated, tense mix, but I'm not buying it. Avatar is nothing if not a technical marvel, and I can't imagine Academy voters are going to be voting against it in any of the effects-driven categories.
Winner: Avatar
Alternate: The Hurt Locker
Dark Horse: Star Trek

Sound Effects Editing
The nominees:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

Same argument as before.
Winner: Avatar
Alternate: The Hurt Locker
Dark Horse: Star Trek

Original Song
The nominees:
"The Weary Kind"-Crazy Heart
"Take it All"-Nine
"Loin de Paname"-Paris 36
"Almost There"-The Princess and the Frog
"Down in New Orleans"-The Princess and the Frog

Another easy category. People love Crazy Heart's songs, for whatever reason. Plus, none of these others are viable contenders: the Princess songs will cancel each other out, Nine was almost universally hated and had terrible new songs, and no one's even heard of Paris 36, much less think "Loin de Paname" is a chart-topper. This goes to Crazy Heart.
Winner: "The Weary Kind"-Crazy Heart
Alternate: "Take it All"-Nine
Dark Horse: "Almost There"-The Princess and the Frog


Well, there we have it. For those of you counting at home, the films with the most wins are as follows:
1. Avatar-5
2. The Hurt Locker-4
3. Precious-2
4. Crazy Heart-2
5. Up-2

We'll see Sunday how wrong I am. In the meantime, how about you? Any predictions before the weekend?