Saturday, February 21, 2015

Final Oscar Predictions: Less Accurate Than a Chimp Performing Brain Surgery

Hey, so guess who's totally screwed this year when it comes to predicting things accurately? This guy, that's who. This Oscar year has been refreshingly and excitingly chaotic, which means that picking the winners is probably going to be harder than using a helicopter to herd a bunch of drunken toddlers on roller skates. And chances are, when all's said and done, I'm going to be more like the toddler than the helicopter--we're going to slip perplexedly all over the place, and I'm probably going to cry before it's all over.

Which is shorthand for saying that this is clearly the best kind of Oscar season to have.

So we'll just do our best. It's possible that no movie wins more than a couple awards, and it's possible that the expected movies become sweepers, and it's possible that an unexpected movie or two sweeps as well. Wackiness! Wackiness everywhere!



Best Picture
The nominees:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Conventional wisdom suggests that this race comes down to Birdman and Boyhood. Which is kind of perplexing, considering that both would be awfully atypical Oscar winners (however deserving they may be), but that's what the stats show. But the stats here are not are friend. See if you follow--Birdman won the Producer's Guild, Screen Actor's Guild, and Director's Guild main awards, and the only movie in the past 20 years that did that and didn't win best picture was Apollo 13. That being said, it was beaten by Braveheart, which won the Golden Globe for best Drama--just like Boyhood. And Boyhood won Best Picture at the BAFTAs (British Academy), which is often a great sign of late-surging surprises. And Birdman isn't nominated in film editing, and no movie has won best picture without being nominated for film editing since Ordinary People in 1980. But you could argue that Birdman won't play by that rule because of it's one-shot appearance. And it all goes back around. So what I'm saying is that stats won't really help us.
Is it possible that we just throw our hands up in the air and pick a different movie? Maybe. When two movies are in a close enough race, sometimes a surpise third place moving can sneak through. There's been talk about American Sniper being that movie, but dont' expect that to happen--it may be making unholy amounts of money, but it's far too polarizing to win. You may expect The Imitation Game here, since it's got Harvey Weinstein behind it, who is the most notorious (and successful( Oscar campaigner out there. But if I had to pick a sneaky third-place winner, I'd go with The Grand Budapest Hotel. It's pretty universally beloved, which helps. Still, I think one of the top two movies is going to pull through. I've just got no idea which.

Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Birdman
Should Have Been Here: Under the Skin

Director
The nominees:
Wes Anderson-The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu-Birdman
Richard Linklater-Boyhood
Bennett Miller-Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum-The Imitation Game

Feel free to copy and paste the arguments for Best Picture, because they all essentially still apply here. It's Birdman vs. Boyhood, and there's no telling who wins. Will we see another picture-director split, or will one movie take both? Tough to say. I do, however, think that it absolutely will be either Linklater or Innaritu. No real chance of a third-place triumph here.

Will Win: Richard Linklater-Boyhood
Could Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu-Birdman
Should Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu-Birdman
Should Have Been Here: Jonathan Glazer-Under the Skin

Actor
The nominees:
Steve Carell-Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper-American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton-Birdman
Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything

This one's a nail-biter between Redmayne and Keaton, but the smart money's probably on Redmayne--he's won most of the important precursor awards, and he's doing biopic mimicry, which the Academy can never get enough of. And yet I'm going to call for love of Birdman (and Batman) to see Keaton through. That being said, our favorite third-place option is a real threat here. Bradley Cooper certainly has a chance to sneak through the middle and grab a win while Keaton and Redmayne are still slapping each other in the aisle.

Will Win: Michael Keaton-Birdman
Could Win: Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything
Should Win: Michael Keaton-Birdman
Should Have Been Here: Ralph Fiennes-The Grand Budapest Hotel

Actress
The nominees:
Marion Cotillard-Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones-The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore-Still Alice
Rosamund Pike-Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon-Wild

There's a Julianne Moore freight-train in town, and it's about damn time. There is one tiny quibble standing in the way of Moore's victory--it's been 50 years since an actress in her fifties won. The Academy is a bit ageist, I'm afraid. That being said, I can't possibly see Moore losing--who else would win? Cotillard and Pike's movies aren't popular enough, and Witherspoon already has an Oscar. I've had nightmares about Felicity Jones grabbing by virtue of being young and pretty, but I have to believe that it won't happen.

Will Win: Julianne Moore-Still Alice
Could Win: Felicity Jones-The Theory of Everything
Should Win: Rosamund Pike-Gone Girl*
Should Have Been Here: Essie Davis-The Babadook
*Note: 'should win' means that I liked her performance the best, but I'm still going to be over-the-moon thrilled that Julianne Moore finally gets an Oscar. I'll just pretend it's for Boogie Nights, The Hours, Magnolia, The Kids are All Right, Far from Heaven, or any of her other unbelievably great roles.

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Robert Duvall-The Judge
Ethan Hawke-Boyhood
Edward Norton-Birdman
Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons-Whiplash

Let's not waste our time with commentary here. Simmons wins. He's a popular character actor, the role is huge/showy, he's great in it, and it's an opportunity to toss an Oscar to Whiplash. No way anyone upsets him.

Will Win: J.K. Simmons-Whiplash
Could Win: Edward Norton-Birdman
Should Win: Edward Norton-Birdman*
Should Have Been Here: Chris Pine-Into the Woods

*I haven't seen The Judge.

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
Laura Dern-Wild
Keira Knightley-The Imitation Game
Emma Stone-Birdman
Meryl Streep-Into the Woods

All those things I just said about J.K. Simmons? It's the exact same argument for Patricia Arquette, who easily takes this. I've heard whispers of an Emma Stone upset, but that's just not gonna happen.

Will Win: Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
Could Win: Emma Stone-Birdman
Should Win: Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
Should Have Been Here: Agata Kulesza-Ida

Original Screenplay
The nominees;
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler

This one's a three-way race, and anything could happen. Do they give it to the movie with the most Best Picture heat? If so, it's either Birdman or Boyhood. Do they give it to the one they aren't giving BP? If so, then either of those two or Budapest could win. Do they give it to the most popular? Any of the three already mentioned. The one with the quickest or wittiest wordplay? Birdman or Budapest. The one whose writer has the best reputation? Anderson for Budapest or Linklater for Boyhood. You see my conundrum? Each of these three movies has a great argument for winning, and two great arguments against it for losing. Tough stuff. I think Budapest will barely squeak through--Anderson is the most due for an award of the three writers, and Budapest is the most obviously 'written' movie of the three. Nothing (or anything) would surprise me in this category, though.

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Birdman
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Have Been Here: Pride

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
American Sniper
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

Somehow, this category is a little harder than Original Screenplay, because everything but Inherent Vice could win. That being said, it's got a bit of a front-runner in The Imitation Game--a movie which was once seen to be a major threat for Best Picture, but now is probably going to settle for taking this as a consolation prize. That being said, both American Sniper and The Theory of Everything have been coming on strong, and both could be popular enough to win. Also, none of these movies have gone against Whiplash yet (due to some silly Academy rules, Whiplash was nominated as Adapted despite being nominated as original basically everywhere else), which means that Whiplash could trump them all. It'll be interesting.

Will Win: The Imitation Game
Could Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Whiplash
Should Have Been Here: Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Production Design
The nominees:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner

The Grand Budapest Hotel has to take this, right? It's the most gorgeous, most showy of the nominees. Mr. Turner and Interstellar aren't strong enough, and the other two might not be either. That being said, if they reward the brashest (ugliest?) nominee, as they so often do, Into the Woods could take it, and if The Imitation Game displays unexpected strength tomorrow night (thanks, Harvey Weinstein!), it could begin here.

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: The Imitation Game
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel*
Should Have Been Here: Snowpiercer

* I haven't seen Mr. Turner.

Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
Into the Woods
Maleficent
Mr. Turner

Similar arguments as last category, but in this one only Budapest and Woods are competing. I'm afraid that Into the Woods might steal Budapest's well-deserved Oscar by virtue of being the kind of bigger, more obvious movie that they tend to reward here, but I'm going to be optimistic instead.

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: Into the Woods
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel*
Should Have Been Here: Snowpiercer

* Haven't seen Mr. Turner.

Visual Effects
The nominees:
Captain America; The Winter Soldier
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past

So what triumphs here--is it the film with the most 'prestige?' If so, then Interstellar takes it; it looks the most like a serious movie, even if its Rotten Tomato score is lower than all the other nominees. If it goes to the most popular movie, then Guardians of the Galaxy wins. If it goes to the most obviously accomplished, then Dawn of the Planet of the Apes takes it. It's a tough call, and all three could easily win.

Will Win: Interstellar
Could Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Should Have Been Here: Godzilla

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

It would be smart to predict Budapest here--it's well loved, and it's the movie with the most best picture heat, which often carries the day in craft categories like these. But I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Guardians--it's also well-loved, and its fans may rally here to give it something.

Will Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should Have Been Here: Snowpiercer

Film Editing
The nominees:
American Sniper
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Whiplash

Maybe the hardest category of the night, and inextricably tied to Best Picture. Obviously, anything that wins here will have a better shot at winning best picture, but it doesn't *have* to--if Boyhood or Whiplash wins, for instance, it might just be because they're the flashiest edited or have the best editing narrative (12 years of footage!). Ditto American Sniper, which may win by virtue of being an action movie. If Imitation or Budapest wins here, though, then expect them to make a pretty strong run at winning the top prize.

Will Win: Boyhood
Could Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Boyhood
Should Have Been Here: Edge of Tomorrow

Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ida
Mr. Turner
Unbroken

This is probably Birdman's, unless 2006 repeats itself, and an impressive achievement lensed by Emmanuel Lubezki loses to the prettier nominee (Children of Men vs. Pan's Labyrinth). I don't really think that will happen, but if it does, then Budapest will be the one to benefit (or maaaaaaybe Mr. Turner).

Will Win: Birdman
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: Birdman*
Should Have Been Here: Under the Skin

* I really should have seen Mr. Turner, huh?

Original Score
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
The Theory of Everything

Another tough one (he says, knowing full well that MOST OF THEM are tough). Either Alexandre Desplat finally takes one home (for Budapest or Imitation), or they give it to the worst nominee, as they so often do (Theory). Fun fact--when watching the Theory of Everything, right after the first treacly, exaggerated notes crawled out of the speakers, I rolled my eyes and thought 'well this is winning an Oscar.' Despite my earlier hunch, I'm going Budapest--I think the film is well-loved, and I think it's finally Desplat's time.

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could Win: The Theory of Everything
Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel*
Should Have Been Here: Under the Skin

* Seriously Mr. Turner stop showing up.

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
Whiplash

This one is either very easy or very hard, depending on how much I freak myself out. It makes sense to say that Sniper's got this under control--it's loud, it's action, and it's the easiest place to reward a popular movie. That being said, Birdman won the award from the Cinema Audio Society, and Whiplash won the BAFTA, so who knows? If Birdman does a bit of a sweep, it'll take things here. And Whiplash sells the music angle pretty hard--and music movies very frequently win here. That being said, so do war movies. Honestly, as long as Interstellar's atrocious hate-crime of a sound mix doesn't win, I'll be ok.

Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Whiplash
Should Win: Birdman
Should Have Been Here: Under the Skin

Sound Editing
The nominees:
American Sniper
Birdman
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Unbroken

I feel much more confident calling for American Sniper here. Unless Birdman *really* sweeps, it won't take both sound awards, and while Interstellar has a chance, I don't think Sniper will be passed up.

Will Win: American Sniper
Could Win: Interstellar
Should Win: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Should Have Been Here: Godzilla

Original Song
The nominees:
"Lost Stars"-Begin Again
"Grateful"-Beyond the Lights
"I'm Not Gonna Miss You"-Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
"Everything is Awesome"-The LEGO Movie
"Glory"-Selma

Welcome to battle of the consolation prizes! In one corner, Selma--snubbed for everything but Picture--and in the other corner The LEGO Movie--snubbed for Animated Film. My guess is Selma takes it as an apology. You could make an argument for the Glen Campbell movie winning, but who even saw that movie?

Will Win: "Glory"-Selma
Could Win: "Everything is Awesome"-The LEGO Movie
Should Win: "Everything is Awesome"-The LEGO Movie
Should Have Been Here: "For the Dancing and the Dreaming"-How to Train Your Dragon

Animated Film
The nominees:
Big Hero 6
The BoxTrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Since LEGO Movie wasn't nominated, How to Train Your Dragon sort of slipped in by default to become the frontrunner. I don't sense that much love for it around, so it might lose, but I've no idea what would take it. Don't think the other two mainstream films are strong enough, and not enough people see the little weird ones (even though they're usually the ones that ought to win). I'd love to think that Kaguya has a chance, since it's Isao Takahata's last movie, but if that argument didn't work for The Wind Rises and Hayao friggin' Miyazaki last year, then it certainly won't work now.

Will Win: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Could Win: Big Hero 6
Should Win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya*
Should Have Been Here: The LEGO Movie

* I haven't seen Song of the Sea.

Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
Ida-Poland
Leviathan-Russia
Tangerines-Estonia
Timbuktu-Mauritania
Wild Tales-Argentina

Either really tough or really easy. Ida probably wins--it's critically beloved, popular for a foreign film, and it's the only one to get another nomination (for cinematography). But Leviathan and Timbuktu are nipping at its heels, and Wild Tales might win just by being a fun movie among a bunch of really depressing ones.

Will Win: Ida-Poland
Could Win: Wild Tales-Argentina
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Ida)

Documentary 
The nominees:
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga

Citizenfour takes it, I guess. Maybe Virunga or Last Days in Vietnam. Honestly I'm not fussed either way.

Will Win: Citizenfour
Could Win: Virunga
Should Win: Abstain. I haven't seen any of these. I'm bad.

Well that's that. For those playing at home, here are the movies I'm predicting to win multiple Oscars:
The Grand Budapest Hotel: 4 (Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score)
Birdman: 3 (Picture, Actor, Cinematography)
Boyhood: 3 (Director, Supporting Actress, Film Editing)
American Sniper: 2 (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing)

Tune in to the Oscars tomorrow night and see how bad I did!



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