Oscar Predictions 2015, part 5: summing it up

Alright boys and girls, here's how it is: the Academy announces their nominees in two days time, but I'm going to be on the road for those two days, so I've got to speak now, or forever hold my peace. (See it's funny because I'm driving to a wedding.) This means that there are a couple last sign-posts I'm missing--the Directors Guild nominations come out later today, which are probably the most important precursor of all, but oh well. So if I'm a little less accurate than usual, that could be why. Or it could just be because this year for Oscar has been insane and silly and I've loved it. So here we go: these will be my super serious final predictions, sans commentary, allowing myself one alternate.

As far as big changes are concerned, I've moved Steve Carell into best actor for The Big Short, which meant bumping Johnny Depp in Black Mass out, pushed The Danish Girl out of production design for Mad Max: Fury Road (which was very, very silly), and changed my visual effects alternate from Avengers to Ant-Man, and followed a hunch I've had since October, moving Bridge of Spies into Sound Mixing and kicking Straight Outta Compton straight outta the category. So not much, which is surprising considering how very not sure of all of these that I am. Oh well. Accuracy is for losers.

And I know it's silly to go on for five days about the Oscars without offering (mostly) any opinions of my own about what should get nominated, but chalk it up to the annoying release schedules we deal with in the middle of the country. Given how long it takes some movies to ooze their way into states other than New York and California, I really can't put together a respectable top ten list until at least mid-February. But rest assured, top ten lists are coming! Rejoice! Just know for now that if I could guarantee one nomination, it'd be George Miller for best director for Mad Max: Fury Road, and if I could prevent any nomination, it would be a toss-up between Helen Mirren's supporting actress bid for Trumbo, Eddie Redmayne for best actor for The Danish Girl, and Christian Bale for supporting actor for The Big Short.

So here we go!
Best Picture
Spotlight
The Big Short
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Brooklyn
Sicario
Alternate: Mad Max: Fury Road

Director
Tom McCarthy-Spotlight
Ridley Scott-The Martian
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu-The Revenant
Adam McKay-The Big Short
Todd Haynes-Carol
Alternate: George Miller-Mad Max: Fury Road

Actor
Leonardo Dicaprio-The Revenant
Michael Fassbender-Steve Jobs
Matt Damon-The Martian
Bryan Cranston-Trumbo
Steve Carell-The Big Short
Alternate: Eddie Redmayne-The Danish Girl

Actress
Brie Larson-Room
Saoirse Ronan-Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett-Carol
Charlotte Rampling-45 Years
Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence-Joy

Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance-Bridge of Spies
Christian Bale-The Big Short
Sylvester Stallone-Creed
Idris Elba-Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo-Spotlight
Alternate: Jacob Tremblay-Room

Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara-Carol
Kate Winslet-Steve Jobs
Jennifer Jason Leigh-The Hateful Eight
Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
Rachel McAdams-Spotlight
Alternate: Helen Mirren-Trumbo

Original Screenplay
Spotlight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Ex Machina
Alternate: Straight Outta Compton

Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
The Martian
Room
Steve Jobs
Brooklyn
Alternate: Carol

Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road
Alternate: The Danish Girl

Costume Design
The Danish Girl
Cinderella
Carol
Brooklyn
Trumbo
Alternate: Mad Max: Fury Road

Visual Effects
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Jurassic World
The Revenant
Alternate: Ant-Man

Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Alternate: Mr. Holmes

Film Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Big Short
Spotlight
The Martian
The Revenant
Alternate: Sicario

Cinematography
The Revenant
Sicario
Mad Max: Fury Road
Carol
Son of Saul
Alternate: Bridge of Spies

Original Score
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Hateful Eight
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Sicario
Alternate: Spotlight

Sound Mixing
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
Alternate: Straight Outta Compton

Sound Editing
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
Alternate: The Hateful Eight

Original Song
"See You Again"-Furious 7
"Til It Happens to You"-The Hunting Ground
"Simple Song #3"-Youth
"Love Me Like You Do"-50 Shades of Grey
"I'll See You in My Dreams"-I'll See You in My Dreams
Alternate: "Writing's On the Wall"-Spectre

Animated Film
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
Boy and the World
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Alternate: The Good Dinosaur

Foreign Language Film
Son of Saul-Hungary
Labyrinth of Lies-Germany
Mustang-France
Theeb-Jordan
Embrace of the Serpent-Colombia
Alternate: A War-Denmark

Documentary Feature
The Hunting Ground
The Look of Silence
Cartel Land
Best of Enemies
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
Alternate: Amy


So there you have it. For those counting at home, the top five nomination-getters I'm predicting are:
The Revenant-9
The Martian-8
Carol-8
Mad Max: Fury Road-7
Spotlight-6

I'll be back here Friday night with commentaries, but if you feel like watching them yourselves, the Academy announces its nominees Thursday morning at 5.30 Pacific time. And who doesn't want to wake up at 5.30?