In honor of the anarchic, footloose and fancy-free spirit the Oscars have been so sassily slipping into our drinks this season, I'm just going to spin in mad circles around my room for a few minutes instead of typing up predictions. It'll be like that scene from The Fall, except in this version everyone ends up on the floor crying.
I was lying. I'm not going to do that. I'm so sorry. The point, however, is this--this awards season has plunged forward like a well-intentioned but woefully under-qualified golden retriever trying to pilot a nuclear submarine. It's fun in theory, but in reality is going to destroy the lives of so, so many people. So instead of trying to plot where Karl Barx (the captain of said nuclear submarine) is going to end up, we're going to just sort of ramble for a few pages. Fun for the whole family!
(Once more, without snark--I honestly have no idea what I'm doing here. Dat Academy be wack.)
Best Picture
The nominees:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Here is an honest-to-goodness three-way race, which is a mind-blowing rarity this deep in the Oscar race. And it's one heck of a doozy--on paper, it seems The Revenant is a bit ahead, having won the Golden Glob for best drama, the Directors Guild Award, and the BAFTA (British Oscars) award. Aaaaaand yet it's not nominated for best screenplay, and only two movies (Titanic and The Sound of Music) have won best picture without best screenplay since the 1930s. So who knows? Spotlight won the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award--an all-important precursor box to check--and yet it seems be inexorably losing steam of late. And The Big Short won the Producers Guild award--which is the only precursor award that uses the same preferential balloting system that the Academy does. So color me confused. I'd like to call it as a photo finish between The Revenant and The Big Short, with Spotlight taking the scrappy underdog spot (some people have been saying that Mad Max sneaks up the middle to take it all, but no, sorry, no). So does it go to the topical, political comedy or to the big, technically impressive violent movie? I've honestly no idea. I'm pretty sure I won't know what I'm picking until I actually write it. So let's find out, shall we?
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: 45 Years
Yikes, I hope this doesn't happen. Of course the two worst nominated movies are the ones fighting for the win.
Director
The nominees:
Lenny Abrahamson-Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu-The Revenant
Tom McCarthy-Spotlight
Adam McKay-The Big Short
George Miller-Mad Max: Fury Road
Hotly contest but arguably a little easier than best picture (now watch me get it wrong). This category's narrative is big/flashy/tough direction over fewer fireworks/more best picture heat. So it's the Innaritu/Miller school vs. the McKay/McCarthy school. And I can't help but feel like tough and big wins here--McKay (the director of Anchorman 2) isn't exactly due for an Oscar, and the work on Spotlight is so quiet and understated that I feel like it'll be all too easily overlooked. That leaves Innaritu vs. Miller, and I just can't bring myself that the Academy will do anything as balls-to-the wall insane as giving Mad Max a directing Oscar.
(Although can we take a second to appreciate that Mad Max, a deliberately weird, thorny, gory car-chase movie is a ten-time Oscar nominee? That's absolutely the weirdest thing that has happened in my tenure as an Oscar prognosticator, and it's glorious.)
Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu-The Revenant
Could Win: George Miller-Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: George Miller-Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Denis Villeneuve-Sicario
Actor
The nominees:
Bryan Cranston-Trumbo
Matt Damon-The Martian
Leonardo Dicaprio-The Revenant
Michael Fassbender-Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne-The Danish Girl
There's sure to be plenty of internet crowing over the next few days, so allow me to not contribute. Leo's going to win, and then the world can collectively stop complaining that a 5-time Oscar nominee in his 30s is due. (Note of comparison: it took Paul Newman until his 8th nomination in his 60s to win. It took Al Pacino until his 8th nomination in his 50s to win. Peter O'Toole never won. And let's not talk about the hosts of women who have more appalling statistics than all of that. The only people who say Leo is overdue/robbed/being treated awfully are the ones with no sense of Oscar history. Ugh.)
Will Win: Leonardo Dicaprio-The Revenant
Could Win: Matt Damon-The Martian
Should Win: Matt Damon-The Martian
Should Have Been Here: Michael B. Jordan-Creed
Actress
The nominees:
Cate Blanchett-Carol
Brie Larson-Room
Jennifer Lawrence-Joy
Charlotte Rampling-45 Years
Saoirse Ronan-Brooklyn
Arguably Brie Larson's to lose. Ronan continues to lurk in the back of the room like she's waiting to break up a wedding that needs breaking up (hello there, wildly inappropriate Atonement reference!), but I don't think she's got the guts. Which leaves Larson--she's the age at which Oscar loves to reward young women, she's popular, and her film was clearly well-liked. She's in.
Will Win: Brie Larson-Room
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan-Brooklyn
Should Win: Charlotte Rampling-45 Years
Should Have Been Here: Rooney Mara-Carol (or, if you'd rather someone who wasn't nominated [just in a different category], then Nina Hoss-Phoenix)
Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Christian Bale-The Big Short
Tom Hardy-The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo-Spotlight
Mark Rylance-Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone-Creed
What a half-cocked, overbaked roster. Oh well. With this competition, there's no way Sly's narrative (he's the same age now as his mentor in Rocky was when it came out! He's only been nominated once, for Rocky, 39 years ago! He's actually good!) gets up-ended.
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone-Creed
Could Win: Mark Rylance-Bridge of Spies
Should Win: Sylvester Stallone-Creed
Should Have Been Here: Nicholas Hoult-Mad Max: Fury Road
Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Jennifer Jason Leigh-The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara-Carol
Rachel McAdams-Spotlight
Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet-Steve Jobs
I've no idea what to do with this category. On paper, it seems like Alicia Vikander has all the momentum she needs, and if we're being honest, this category probably isn't that complicated. But I have two thoughts: 1) what if voters realize that Rooney Mara is giving one of the best performances of the past 10 years and actually vote for quality, and 2) what if the Academy wants to see Kate and Leo win Oscars on the same night so all of the backstage photos can be one big Titanic re-enactment? Because I want that so badly that I'll even be ok with Leo winning if we can make it happen.
Will Win: Kate Winslet-Steve Jobs
Could Win: Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
Should Win: Rooney Mara-Carol (or, if you're grossed out by category fraud, aka the fact that Mara and Vikander are 'supporting' actresses when they're clearly the protagonists of their films, and want an actual supporting performance to win, then Kate Winslet-Steve Jobs)
That was a silly choice. Everyone choose Vikander for your ballots. I voted with my silly pre-teen heart. I just want that Titanic reunion more than life itself.
Original Screenplay
The nominees:
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Spotlight has to take this, right? It's a consolation prize for the previous frontrunner. I'd love to see Inside Out triumph here, and there have been whispers of Compton taking a 'sorry we didn't vote for any black people' award here, but I'm not sure that will happen (and honestly it's probably more problematic for Compton to win that way than for the Academy to just soldier on through the #oscarsowhite controversy).
Will Win: Spotlight
Could Win: Inside Out
Should Win: Inside Out
Should Have Been Here: It Follows
Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
See above, re: consolation prize for a former frontrunner. Room has a little juice in its tank, but not enough to push The Big Short out.
Will Win: The Big Short
Could Win: Room
Should Win: Brooklyn
Should Have Been Here: 45 Years
Production Design
The nominees:
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Here's where I introduce the narrative that will dictate what we talk about for the next 10 categories. For (almost) every craft category, we must ask ourselves the following: 1) will either Mad Max or The Revenant sweep, or will fight neck-and-neck the whole night? 2) If one sweeps, which will it be? 3) Do any of the other nominees have the juice to take any Oscars from these two movies? Personally, I'm in the 'fight like dogs right up to the last second' camp. Expect Max to draw first blood here--The Revenant's mostly outdoors filming gives it a disadvantage in a category that's predominantly about sets and things. And one month ago, I'd have told you that Bridge of Spies would win this in a walk, but that's before Max and Revenant decided to curb-stomp every other film in sight.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Crimson Peak
Costume Design
The nominees:
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
For me, the toughest category bar none. Every nominee has a roughly equal chance of winning. The two craft category juggernauts are disadvantaged here--Max is weird and not their normal style, Revenant is mostly just dead animals. Part of me wants to go with one of the Sandy Powell movies (Carol or Cinderella), but Cinderella might not be taken seriously enough to win against more prestigious movies, and Carol is clearly having trouble finding its legs at the Oscars. Part of me wants to pick The Danish Girl--flashy period dresses that are integral to the plot and are highlighted throughout the movie--but if I'm not picking Vikander to win, how can I claim that Danish Girl has the strength to win here? Unbelievably tough. I probably just need to throw a dart or something.
Will Win: The Danish Girl
Could Win: Carol
Should Win: Cinderella
Should Have Been Here: The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Once again a Max/Revenant face-off, with a little indie movie called Star Wars (maybe you've heard of it?) looking to poop in everyone's salad. Both Max and Revenant would be atypical wins in this category--Max for its reliance on practical effects and Revenant for its essentially one-scene nomination--but I feel like one of them will take it. Unless they want to toss a trophy at Star Wars for managing not to be a national nightmare brought to shrieking, unholy life? Who knows.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Avengers: Age of Ultron
Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
No points for guessing which two movies are fighting for the win. My guess is Max's showy prosthetics will trump Revenant's battle wounds.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road*
Should Have Been Here: Carol
*note: I haven't seen The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared, which sounds like the world's shabbiest alibi.
Film Editing
The nominees:
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Here's my theory: whichever movie wins this category wins best picture--unless it's Mad Max, in which case this award is meaningless. Trouble is, Mad Max is probably going to win. They do love action movies in this category (when the mood suits them), and no one can deny Max's manic cutting. Still, if you're betting on The Big Short or Spotlight to surprise and take the top prize, expect them to show that strength here.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Big Short
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Sicario
Cinematography
The nominees:
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
I just can't imagine the Academy passing up the long takes and natural light deployed by once perennial Oscar bridesmaid Chivo (Revenant cinematographer), now sudden Academy bestie. Fun fact--this will be one of the only times in Academy history that someone has won three times in a row (Lubezki one previously for Gravity in 2013 and Birdman in 2014).
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Creed
Original Score
The nominees:
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eigh
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
A rare category blissfully free of the now infamous Revenant/Mad Max beef, and yet tragically empty of intrigue. Ennio Morricone--arguably the most inconic film composer after John Williams--has never won a competitive Oscar, and returns to the Western genre in which he made his name for the first time in 40 years. How does anyone turn that narrative down?
Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Carol
Should Win: Sicario
Should Have Been Here: It Follows
Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Expect a re-hash of the Visual Effects category: Max vs. The Revenant, with that plucky underdog Star Wars hoping to catch a break. Which of the two takes it? Just flip a coin or something.
Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Have Been Here: Sicario
Sound Editing
The nominees:
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Almost the same nominees as the previous category, and exactly the same argument. Copy + Paste.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should Have Been Here: Avengers: Age of Ultron
Original Song
The nominees:
"Earned It"-50 Shades of Grey
"Til It Happens to You"-The Hunting Ground
"Manta Ray"-Racing Extinction
"Writing's On the Wall"-Spectre
"Simple Song #3"-Youth
What an absolute horrorshow abomination of a category. Yeesh. Given these blood-drenched nightmare nominations, the best we can hope for is that sassy power ballad chanteuse Diane Warren finally gets an Oscar to fill the caterwauling, trophy-shaped hole in her thorax. But if Sam Smith wins for the cry for help he weepingly screamed from his closet that somehow made it into Spectre, then I'm probably going to just cut my ears off.
Will Win: "Til It Happens To You"-The Hunting Ground
Could Win: "Writing's On the Wall"-Spectre
Should Win: "Til It Happens to You"-The Hunting Ground
Should Have Been Here: "I'll See You In My Dreams"-I'll See You In My Dreams
Animated Film
The nominees:
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie was There
What a lovely category--such variety. Three different animation types (CGI, hand-drawn, and stop-motion), four different countries (UK, Brazil, USA, Japan), two movies without words (Sheep and World), one movie aimed squarely at adults (hey there, Anomalisa claymation penises!), and one lovely swan-song from one of the world's most important movie studios (man, it kills me that Studio Ghibli is shutting its doors). This just might be my favorite category of the night--not to say that these five movies are the best five movies, but that this is how Oscar nominees should look. Huge amounts of variety and experimentation, all resulting in quality work.
Oh, also Inside Out's gonna win.
Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Anomalisa
Should Win: Inside Out
Should Have Been Here: nothing. Granted, the only other animated movie I saw this year was The Good Dinosaur, and just no, stop it, but see above, re: that part where I got all happy about this category.
Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
Embrace of the Serpent-Colombia
Mustang-France
Son of Saul-Hungary
Theeb-Jordan
A War-Denmark
Son of Saul has steamrolled all the competition--and of course it has, it's a Holocaust movie (Oscar's eyes turn into little hearts whenever they see the word 'Holocaust') that's actually an intense artistic achievement. Some people are stirring the pot, saying that Mustang is going to pull an upset, but I just can't see it.
Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang
Should Win: Abstain. I haven't seen any of these. Thanks, movie distributors!
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
I'll be honest with you--despite all evidence to the contrary, I have a hunch that prohibitive frontrunner Amy won't win. Admittedly, this hunch has been wrong before--I had a hunch Amy wouldn't get nominated, and check out how that worked out for me. So if you want to be smart, pick Amy. But I don't want to be smart. I'm committed to following this hunch to its bitter end and then reaping the consequences. Which will be dire. Probably.
Will Win: Cartel Land
Could Win: Amy
Should Win: The Look of Silence*
Should Have Been Here: Abstain
*note: I haven't seen Cartel Land or What Happened, Miss Simone? (although I really meant to), but I'm relatively confident they won't land for me the way The Look of Silence did.
Well here we are at the end, and I can barely feel my fingers. I've done entirely too much typing in the past few days. Hello, early-onset arthritis! I'd shake your hand, but my wrists don't work that way anymore.
For those counting at home, here are the movies I'm predicting to win multiple Oscars:
The Revenant: 5 (Picture, Director, Actor, Cinematography, Sound Mixing)
Mad Max: Fury Road: 5 (Production Design, Visual Effects, Makeup, Film Editing, Sound Editing)
Only two. I've probably made some horrible mistakes. Yay! That's what I'm here for. Also, can we take another minute to appreciate that not only was something as totally weird as Mad Max nominated 10 times, but that it's a legitimate threat to win 9 of those nominations? Total craziness.
The Oscars are Sunday night. Tune in, watch the pretty people, and help me count all the things I did wrong!
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment