Final Oscar Predictions--the rushed and cold edition

That's right--even if I have to do it with terrible campground wi-fi after a very long day of battling tourist crowds in Venice, no force on this or any other Earth can stop me from doing Oscar predictions. Tragically, this will be the first year in over a decade that I won't be able to watch the Oscars themselves--see above, re: terrible wi-fi. Although even if the wi-fi were super, I'm not sure there are any Italian websites streaming the Oscars. And even if there were, it wouldn't change the fact that they Oscars air fro m1.30-4.30 AM over here, and I'm just not strong enough for that. So all of you will have to watch for me and let me know how it goes.

I wish I could say that the following predictions would detail nail-biting, stress-inducing races that come down to the wire, but I don't want to lie to you. Instead, you'll get to ask yourself the same question 14 times in a row: just how much does the Academy love La La Land

Best Picture
The Nominees:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

To answer the question right off the bat: the Academy loves La La Land so, so much. I've heard a few murmurs of Moonlight riding political sentiments and the growing desire for inclusiveness to a surprise win, but I just can't see it happening. Brokeback Mountain couldn't win when it was the massive frontrunner--no way a queer-themed movie topples an absolute Oscar juggernaut. That's not the world we live in not yet, anyway).

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: La La Land
Should Have Been Here: Silence

Director
The nominees:
Damian Chazelle-La La Land
Mel Gibson-Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan-Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve-Arrival

Copy and past the argument for best picture. Sidebar--if/when Chazelle wins, he'll become the youngest person to ever win best director, ousting Norman Taurog for Skippy, who has held the record for over 80 years. Sidebar #2--have I mentioned how much I hate the fact that Gibson is nominated here? Because it makes me want to jump out a window.

Will Win: Damian Chazelle-La La Land
Could Win: Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
Should Win: Damian Chazelle-La La Land
Should Have Been Here: Martin Scorsese-Silence

Actor
The nominees:
Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield=Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling-La La Land
Viggo Mortensen-Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington-Fences

This one is a nail-biter in fact, if only because it's one of the few places La La Land probably won't triumph. Affleck was the presumptive frontrunner for months, but there's been a late-in-the-game momentum shift in favor of Washington's work. Either could take it, or, alternately, they're so close that a third contestant slips through the gap (because literally every category La La Land's in has some kind of narrative that ends up with it winning).

Will Win: Denzel Washington-Fences
Could Win: Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Denzel Washington-Fences
Should Have Been Here: Joel Edgerton-Loving

Actress
The nominees:
Isabelle Huppert-Elle
Ruth Negga-Loving
Natalie Portman-Jackie
Emma Stone-La La Land
Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins

A well-liked actress in the right age bracket giving a charismatic star turn in the best picture frontrunner? Check, check, check, check. It's tough to imagine Stone losing this one--though, bizarrely, her biggest competition comes from the transgressive and not-widely-seen Elle. A win for Huppert would be a massive upset, but a totally fantastic one.

Will Win: Emma Stone-La La Land
Could Win: Isabelle Huppert-Elle
Should Win: Natalie Portman-Jackie*
Should Have Been Here: Viola Davis-Fences (or, if you prefer, since Davis is nominated in supporting [and she's definitely not supporting in this movie], Taraji P. Henson-Hidden Figures)

*Note: I haven't seen Elle or Florence Foster Jenkins

Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges-Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel-Lion
Michael Shannon-Nocturnal Animals

This is a tough one, in no small part because it's pretty inextricably tied to another category. The question to ask here is whether or not the Academy will feel like recognizing both Moonlight and Lion, and whether they'll use the Adapted Screenplay category to do that as well. It's easy to argue that either movie will win both categories, or that each will pick up one--but which does which. My gut says that Ali and Moonlight take this, but don't be surprised if Patel wins here. Or maybe something even crazier happens, and Bridges walks away with his second Oscar.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
Could Win: Dev Patel-Lion
Should Win: Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
Should Have Been Here: Alden Ehrenreich-Hail, Caesar!

Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Viola Davis-Fences
Naomie Harris-Moonlight
Nicole Kidman-Lion
Octavia Spencer-Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea

No way Davis loses this--it's a titanic performance, she's *actually* a lead, which helps her win, and the Academy owes her big after giving best actress to Meryl over her in 2011.

Will Win: Viola Davis-Fences
Could Win: Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Viola Davis-Fences (or, if you prefer someone who is *actually* in a supporting role, Naomie Harris-Moonlight)
Should Have Been Here: Kate Dickey-The Witch

Original Screenplay
The nominees:
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

La La Land vs. Manchester--if Affleck loses best actor, then this is the only realistic place to reward his film, which is certainly popular and well-regarded. And musicals rarely win screenplay awards--but how far can the La La Land train go?

Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: The Lobster
Should Have Been Here: Green Room

Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

This is probably Moonlight's to lose, right? That being said, Lion has been coming on strong--like we mentioned with supporting actor. But still, I have to assume this goes to Moonlight. Or hey, maybe something wacky happens and Arrival sneaks in.

Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Lion
Should Win: Arrival
Should Have Been Here: Silence

Production Design
The Nominees:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

Definitely goes to La La Land. Caesar and Passengers are just glad to be here, no Harry Potter movie has ever won an Oscar, and Arrival is probably too minimalistic.

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: Passengers
Should Have Been Here: The Witch

Costume Design
The Nominees:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

This is a tough one. First things first--we can safely assume Allied and Beasts are out. So do they go with the massive charging elephant of a movie, or do they resist it because it's contemporary costumes--which never win--and go with something period? And if so, do they go Jackie or Florence? Smart money is on Jackie--it's a movie as much about the style of its titular character as anything else--but I've a hunch that La La Land goes on a bit of a sweep.

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Jackie
Should Win: Jackie
Should Have Been Here: The Dressmaker*

*Note: I haven't seen Allied or Florence Foster Jenkins

Visual Effects
The nominees:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Jungle Book
Rogue One

This might be easier than I'm making it (Jungle Book takes it on account of being eye-popping), but I've got a feeling this one's a bit more complicated than all that. After all, Doctor  Strange is eye-popping too--and a Marvel movie has to win this Oscar eventually, right? And Kubo is gorgeous and unique. Heck, even Rogue One has an argument behind it for winning.

Will Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Could Win: The Jungle Book
Should Win: Doctor Strange
Should Have Been Here: Captain America: Civil War

Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
A Man Called Owe
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

All of these seem impossible as winners, don't they? I suppose it's the (kind of) love for Owe vs . the instinct that Star Trek movies exist to win makeup awards.

Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Could Win: A Man Called Owe
Should Win: Abstain (I've only seen Star Trek)

Film Editing
The nominees:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

La La Land wins this in a walk. Next.

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Arrival
Should Have Been Here: Swiss Army Man

Cinematography
The nominees:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

I think La La Land's got this one in the bag too, but if there's any late-surging affection for Moonlight or Lion, expect it to manifest here.

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Lion
Should Win: Silence
Should Have Been Here: The Witch

Original Score
The nominees:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

La La Land is kind of all about its music--the only way it loses here is if it's set to lose everything.

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Lion
Should Win: Jackie
Should Have Been Here: Swiss Army Man

Sound Mixing
The nominees:
13 Hours
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One

A category where musicals usually dominate if nominated--even if said musicals aren't potentially record-breaking Oscar gladiators.

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: Arrival
Should Have Been Here: Don't Breathe

Sound Editing
The nominees:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

A three-way race between Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, and La La Land right up to the end. Fun fact--this race could be an awfully important, because it could be the only category's standing between La La Land tying the record for most Oscars won by a movie (11) or even breaking it. So keep your eyes on your TVs during the sound categories, kids.

Will Win: Arrival
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: Arrival
Should Have Been Here: Rogue One

Original Song
The nominees:
"Audition (The Fools who Dream)"-La La Land
"Can't Fight the Feeling"-Trolls
"City of Stars"-La La Land
"Empty Chair"-Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I'll Go"-Moana

Easy to assume that La La Land pulls this one out too. There's an argument that the two songs split and give the well-loved Lin-Manuel Miranda to ride Moana to glory, but I just don't see that happening this year.

Will Win: "City of Stars"-La La Land
Could Win: "How Far I'll Go"-Moana
Should Win:-"How Far I'll Go"-Moana
Should Have Been Here: "Montage"-Swiss Army Man

Animated Film
The nominees:
Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life as a Zucchini
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Zootopia probably has this wrapped up, buy Kubo *has* been coming on awfully strong lately--and Laika studios has never won an Oscar. It's definitely a threat here.

Will Win: Kubo and the Two Strings (screw it--no guts, no glory)
Could Win: Zootopia
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings*

*note: I haven't seen My Life as a Zucchini or The Red Turtle

Foreign Language Film
Land of Mine-Denmark
A Man Called Owe-Sweden
Tanna-Australia
Toni Erdmann-Germany
The Salesman-Iran

Six weeks ago I'd have told you that Toni Erdmann would win this in a walk--but then the world went crazy, and now who knows? In a moment of politics and Oscars intersecting, it's likely that The Salesman wins a protest vote--director Asghar Faradi probably won't be able to attend the ceremony, due to visa bans/political stupidity. And Land of Mine and A Man Called Owe both have pretty big followings. Aaaaand Toni Erdmann is still the critical favorite. So who knows?

Will Win: The Salesman
Could Win: Toni Erdmann
Should Win: Abstain. I haven't seen any of these movies, because we don't deserve subtitled movies in the middle of the country.

Documentary Feature
The nominees:
13th
FIre at Sea
I am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America

Probably Oj's to lose, but 13th, Fire at Sea, and I am... are all legitimate threats.

Will Win: OJ: Made in America
Could Win: 13th
Should Win: Abstain--I have seen any of these, but mainly because I'm lazy and ran out of time before my trip.


So that's that. If I'm right, La La Land wins 10 trophies--stopping just short of being record-breaking. It could win as many as 12, and I don't think it'll win any fewer than 9. It'll be interesting to watch just how many Oscar dreams it can kill in a single sitting.