Now we get to celebrate all of that by making ridiculous Oscar-themed foods and making fun of dresses and howling at the moon when Bohemian Rhapsody wins three Oscars! Oh happy day! Bear in mind that when I predict, I'm doing it more for fun than accuracy. There are plenty of hyperrealistic Oscar pools online that strive to get every category right, but I have a lot more fun trying to guess where the unexpected silliness might come from.
Best Picture
The nominees:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
A fascinating year, in that almost every single one of these nominees has no chance, statistically speaking.There's a whole gamut of precursor awards and nomination stats to which a movie needs to adhere in order to win--and the only movie on this list to do that has been BlacKkKlansman, and it's won absolutely nothing (no golden globe, no SAG award, no British Academy Awards, etc.). So which statistic is going to get broken? Movies without a corresponding best director nomination have only won twice since 1940, but A Star is Born, Green Book, and (why, why, WHY) Bohemian Rhapsody all seem to have a shot anyhow. Only five movies have won best picture without a corresponding editing nomination since 1950, but Roma and The Favourite each seem well-positioned for a win. Heck, even Black Panther, which violates every major statistics rule there is (no directing, acting, screenplay, or editing nods) seems like it's got a shot. And Roma, the perceived frontrunner, would be the first foreign-language film of all time to win--plus it debuted on Netflix.
So what wins? Remember that the Academy uses a preferential balloting system, which means that #1 votes/passionate fans are important, but it's even more important (particularly this year) to be well liked: to have lots of voters who would rank a movie as #2 or #3, if not their very favorite. And based solely on that metric, I'm going to pick the movie that I think has made the fewest people hate it.
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: The Favourite (This totally isn't happening, what am I doing)
Should Win: The Favourite
Should Have Been Here: Suspiria
A warning: Green Book has significant support (and has a not insignificant number of people predicting it), and the eldritch horror that is the Bohemian Rhapsody train has yet to lose any steam, so be prepared to claw your eyes out in a moment of uncomprehending horror at the world.
Director
The nominees:
Alfonso Cuaron-Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite
Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay-Vice
Pawel Pawelikowski-Cold War
A much easier call here. There have been rumblings of a Spike Lee upset (the narrative's there--honoring a massive and important career with his first nomination), but I think Cuaron's flashier work will carry the day.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron-Roma
Could Win: Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron-Roma
Should Have Been Here: Luca Guadagnino-Suspiria
Actress
The nominees:
Yalitza Aparicia-Roma
Glenn Close-The Wife
Olivia Colman-The Favourite
Lady Gaga-A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Close looks poised to finally get her Oscar in a career victory lap for a stellar performance in an execrable movie. Could she be derailed by Olivia Colman's virtuoso work? Depends on how much you think the Academy loves The Favourite.
Will Win: Glenn Close-The Wife
Could Win: Olivia Colman-The Favourite
Should Win: Olivia Colman-The Favourite
Should Have Been Here: Toni Colette-Hereditary
Actor
The nominees:
Christian Bale-Vice
Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe-At Eternity's Gate
Viggo Mortensen-Green Book
Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody
Because we live in the darkest and most horrific timeline, this is slugging fest between Bale and Malek, with Malek seemingly emerging at the top. How did it come to this? Against which ancient and furious gods have we transgressed?
Will Win: Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody (whoo boy did I hate typing that)
Could Win: Christian Bale-Vice
Should Win: Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born*
Should Have Been Here: Ethan Hawke-First Reformed
*I haven't seen At Eternity's Gate
Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Amy Adams-Vice
Marina de Tavira-Roma
Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone-The Favourite
Rachel Weisz-The Favourite
Is this category primed for chaos? King took the majority of the precursors and seems, on paper, to be primed for a win, but Beale Street's less than stellar performance on nomination puts this in doubt, and Rachel Weisz has been gaining steam. Or, alternately, does the fight between these two open the door for the 'Amy Adams has six nominations and no wins' narrative, even if her work in Vice is miles from her best? Or does something truly shocking happen, like a de Tavira win? I'm confident that Emma Stone's got no chance (nothing against the performance, which is arguably her best, but she won two years ago and doesn't have the momentum), but *anything* else could happen.
Will Win: Rachel Weisz-The Favourite
Could Win: Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: Rachel Weisz-The Favourite
Should Have Been Here: Jong-Seo Jun-Burning
Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Mahershala Ali-Green Book
Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliot-A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell-Vice
For some inexplicable reason (see above, re: darkest timeline), Ali's sailing to victory for a much less compelling performance then the Oscar-winning one he gave in Moonlight. I'd love to see Grant upset, but the writing's just not on the wall.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali-Green Book
Could Win: Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should Win: Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should Have Been Here: Steven Yeun-Burning
Original Screenplay
The nominees:
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Am I crazy--or just hopeful--in thinking that The Favourite has this in the bag? I can't imagine how anyone could look at any of the other nominees and vote for them (except First Reformed, which would be a very cool upset, if The Favourite has to lose to someone) (but seriously, if The Favourite loses to Nick Vallelonga and Green Book, I might just have to cut the Oscars out of my life).
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Green Book
Should Win: The Favourite
Should Have Been Here: Eighth Grade
Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Here's where BlacKkKlansman will probably pick up its "sorry you won't win best picture" consolation award, though Can You Ever Forgive Me? has been coming on strong lately. Still, I think Klansman's draw is too strong to pass up.
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Should Have Been Here: Suspiria
Production Design
The nominees:
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
The narrative here is the same as costume design: a Black Panther/Favourite smackdown of showy fantasy vs. showy period dress. Both are worthy winners, but keep an eye on these two categories, as they've somehow become Black Panther's only good shot at winning an Oscar. If Roma wins here, look for it to sweep the whole night.
Will Win: Black Panther
Could Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Black Panther
Should Have Been Here: Suspiria (boy, how many times will I write that in this post?)
Costume Design
The nominees:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
See the argument above--panthers and favourites. Slight chance that Mary Poppins makes a showing, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Will Win: The Favourite
Could Win: Black Panther
Should Win: Black Panther
Should Have Been Here: Crazy Rich Asians
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo
Might this be the Marvel cinematic universe's first Oscar win? It could be, but it's worth remembering that only two superhero movies have ever won this category (the original Superman and Spider-Man 2) and both wins came before our current era of super franchise saturation. That said, does First Man or Ready Player One have the juice to muscle it out of the way?
Will Win: First Man
Could Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Should Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Should Have Been Here: Ant-Man and the Wasp
Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
What's that, you say? A best picture nominee that relies on prosthetics to make an acclaimed performance resemble a real-life person? Done and done.
Will Win: Vice
Could Win: Border
Should Win: Mary Queen of Scots*
Should Have Been Here: Suspiria
* I haven't seen Border
Film Editing
The nominees:
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice
This is probably a competition between the movies with the 'most' aka flashiest/most obvious editing, aka Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice. If either of them wins, this category has no effect on the rest of the night. If any of the other three win, watch for them to make a serious best picture play.
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Win: BlacKkKlansman
Should Have Been Here: A Star is Born
Cinematography
The nominees:
Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star is Born
It would be profoundly shocking if anything other than Roma walked away with this--and if Roma *does* lose this, then you can count it dead in all the other races.
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Cold War
Should Win: Roma
Should Have Been Here: First Man
Original Score
The nominees:
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
A dead heat between BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, and Beale Street. Any of those three could end on top, so flip a coin (...with three sides, I guess?).
Will Win: BlacKkKlansman
Could Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: Black Panther
Should Have Been Here: Eighth Grade
Sound Mixing
The nominees:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Somehow this has become a showdown between musicals (with Bohemian Rhapsody with the upper hand) and space movies (hi, First Man). Again, if Roma wins here, expect a Roma sweep, and if A Star is Born triumphs, keep your fingers extra crossed for B-Coops and Lady Gaga.
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Could Win: A Star is Born
Should Win: First Man
Should Have Been Here: Eighth Grade
Sound Editing
The nominees:
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Quiet Place
Exact same argument as above. Maybe Black Panther can find more traction here? If Bohemian Rhapsody wins this one I will legit throw my shoe at the tv.
Will Win: First Man
Could Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: First Man
Should Have Been Here: Avengers: Infinity War
Original Song
The nominees:
"All the Stars"-Black Panther
"I'll Fight"-RBG
"The Place Where Lost Things Go"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Shallow"-A Star is Born
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings"-The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
"Shallow" wins in the easiest call of the night.
Will Win: "Shallow"-A Star is Born
Could Win: "All the Stars"-Black Panther
Should Win: "Shallow"-A Star is Born
Should Have Been Here: "Suspirium"-Suspiria
Animated Film
The nominees:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Spider-Man is the heavy critical favorite, and it's walked away with the lion's share of prizes this year, but a part of me definitely worries that the Academy isn't quite cool enough to give this scrappy and wild little movie an Oscar, and might opt for Pixar polish instead. (Incidentally, if Spider-Man wins, it will become only the third movie to beat a nominated Pixar film in this category, after Shrek beat Monsters, Inc. and Cars lost to Happy Feet.)
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse (though this is veeeeeery tentative)
Could Win: Incredibles 2
Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*
*I haven't seen Mirai or Ralph Breaks the Internet
Foreign Language Film
The nominees:
Capernaum-Lebanon
Cold War-Poland
Never Look Away-Germany
Roma-Mexico
Shoplifters-Japan
Whenever a movie in this category is also nominated for best picture, it always wins.
Will Win: Roma
Could Win: Cold War
Should Win: abstain (I've only seen Roma and Cold War)
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG
Too close to call? Free Solo and RBG were two of the year's biggest documentary hits (though Free Solo was more critically acclaimed than the other), Minding the Gap and Hale County both carry the field in terms of acclaim and emotion, and Of Fathers and Sons is a K.O. as far as immediacy and film-making bravery is concerned. So how to choose? I've legitimately no idea. I'm just going to write to the end of this paragraph and see what my fingers come up with.
Will Win: Minding the Gap (screw it--the heart wants what the heart wants)
Could Win: Free Solo
Should Win: Minding the Gap*
*I haven't seen Hale County This Morning, This Evening
And there's that! I've got Roma being the big winner of the night with 4 Oscars (picture, director, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film), but I've also got Bohemian Rhapsody winning three to remind us that the world is awful and we are all of us hanging off the edge of a precipice. Hooray! We'll see how it shakes out--in roughly six hours all of these predictions will be rendered moot.
Aaaaaaaaand now for something completely different! Note: feel free to check out here. As a nice summary of the year, and as a reminder that, despite my preoccupation with them, the Oscars aren't the be-all end-all of the cinematic year. Underneath, you'll find my anti-Oscar ballot. The only rule: I can't nominate anything that was nominated for an Oscar. What you'll find is that the cinematic talent displayed this year runs deep, and even if the Academy made some good choices, there is still a massive pool of accomplished artists who aren't getting the attention they deserve.
So here we go! No commentary, no rankings--just alphabetical nominees, with winners in bold.
The Anti-Oscars
Best Picture
Burning
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Cold War
Eighth Grade
First Reformed
Hereditary
Minding the Gap
Suspiria
Director
Ari Aster-Hereditary
Bo Burnham-Eighth Grade
Chang-Dong Lee-Burning
Ryan Coogler-Black Panther
Luca Guadagnino-Suspiria
Actress
Toni Colette-Hereditary
Viola Davis-Widows
Regina Hall-Support the Girls
Carey Mulligan-Wildlife
Julia Roberts-Ben is Back
Actor
Ah-In Yoo-Burning
Ryan Gosling-First Man
Ethan Hawke-First Reformed
Lucas Hedges-Ben is Back
Tomasz Kot-Cold War
Supporting Actress
Elizabeth Debicki-Widows
Cynthia Erivo-Bad Times at the El Royale
Jong-Seo Jun-Burning
Dolly Wells-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Michelle Yeoh-Crazy Rich Asians
Supporting Actor
Timothée Chalamet-Beautiful Boy
Josh Hamilton-Eighth Grade
Michael B. Jordan-Black Panther
Nicholas Hoult-The Favourite
Steven Yeun-Burning
Original Screenplay
Cold War
Eighth Grade
Hereditary
Sorry to Bother You
Support the Girls
Adapted Screenplay
Black Panther
Burning
A Simple Favor
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Suspiria
Production Design
Aquaman
Crazy Rich Asians
First Reformed
Mortal Engines
Suspiria
Costume Design
Crazy Rich Asians
A Simple Favor
Sorry to Bother You
Suspiria
Wildlife
Visual Effects
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Mary Poppins Returns
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Mortal Engines
Paddington 2
Makeup and Hairstyling
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
Suspiria
Film Editing
Burning
Cold War
Minding the Gap
A Star is Born
Widows
Cinematography
Burning
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Suspiria
We the Animals
Original Score
Annihilation
Eighth Grade
Suspiria
Vice
Paddington 2
Sound Mixing
Eighth Grade
Mission: Impossible - Fallout
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One
Solo
Sound Editing
Annihilation
Aquaman
Avengers: Infinity War
Incredibles 1
Solo
Original Song
"Ashes"-Deadpool 2
"Nowhere to Go but Up"-Mary Poppins Returns
"Pray for Me"-Black Panther
"Suspirium"-Suspiria
"Unmade"-Suspiria
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