I--. You know what?
I'm not gonna complain.
That's right, after half a lifetime of powerlessly shrieking into the wind every time the Oscars roll around, a joyful little dance of rage I've committed to more strongly than anything else in my entire life, I'm just gonna shrug and nod a little. Because the Oscars...kind of got things right-ish this year? Granted, there are some egregious snubs, and some things I despise popping up where you'd least want the things you despise to pop up, I can't help but look at the list this morning and feel fine. You might be able to credit this to the Academy's years-long initiative to make its voters more diverse and international finally paying off and creating a voting body that's more willing to take a chance on slightly more challenging or interesting fare, or maybe after living through the past few years, we've all learned to carefully measure and spend our outrage. Or maybe I'm just in that warm, happy place that can only happen when Being the Ricardos falls on its face. Either way, if you've ever needed a little extra kick to wade into the Oscar conversation and see more of the nominees, this is the year to do it: there's plenty of gold (statues or otherwise) to find here.
Arguably, the biggest story of the morning is The Power of the Dog scoring in every conceivable place with 12 nominations (it's on netflix right now! go watch it!), or maybe it's the overperformance of international titles, with Drive My Car, Flee, Parallel Mothers, and The Worst Person in the World all thriving. Really, it's a wacky list, and one that feels as though it would have been vaguely inconceivable even a decade ago, so let's dive in!
I'll put an asterisk next to the nominations I predicted correctly, but maybe don't hold your breath for a ton of asterisks.
Best Picture
Belfast*
Coda*
Don't Look Up*
Drive My Car*
King Richard*
Licorice Pizza*
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog*
West Side Story*
I'm most thrilled for Drive My Car, which becomes only the 13th non-English language film to be nominated in this category, and was far from a sure thing, even though it absolutely deserves it. Almost as thrilled to see Being the Ricardos miss--something it did a fair amount of this morning. I don't have lots of love for Don't Look Up, Belfast, and CODA, but I can live with their being here. Also a surprise to see Nightmare Alley, a film not well loved by precursor awards, critics, or the box office, finding its way into this category--and without a nomination in any other major category.
Early winner prediction: The Power of the Dog
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza*
Kenneth Branagh-Belfast*
Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog*
Ryusuke Hamaguchi-Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg-West Side Story*
Despite Branagh, this is a great category, with Campion becoming the first woman to receive multiple directing nominations, and Hamaguchi extending the Academy's recent trend of nominating international directors here (see last year's Thomas Vinterberg/Another Round or the previous year's Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War). Despite Belfast feeling like someone just discovered iMovie, Branagh becomes the first person ever to be nominated in 7 different categories across his career this morning (picture, director, actor, supporting actor, original screenplay, adapted screenplay, live action short).
Early winner prediction: Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
Actress
Jessica Chastain-The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter*
Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardos*
Kristen Stewart-Spencer*
Olivia Colman! Penelope Cruz! Kristen-ass Stewart getting her long deserved first Oscar nomination! This category might have elicited the most wild snapping and air-punching from me this morning. A strong lineup, despite the Ricardoness of it all.
Early winner prediction: Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter
Actor
Javier Bardem-Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog*
Andrew Garfield-Tick Tick Boom*
Will Smith-King Richard*
Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth*
Less than thrilled that Bardem's here--he's a great actor, and seems great, but is woefully miscast and never figures out what to do about it. All of this is fine, though, I guess? I'll always greet any Andrew Garfield nom to make up for his dumb Social Network snub all those years ago, and the rest of the field is strong enough. Fun fact: Bardem getting in here makes him the first of two married couples (with his wife Penelope Cruz) to get his and hers Oscar nominations this morning.
Early winner prediction: Will Smith-King Richard
Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley-The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose-West Side Story*
Judi Dench-Belfast
Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog*
Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard*
Maybe most surprising category of the morning, with Buckley showing up (almost) out of nowhere, and Dench knocking off her more heavily awarded co-star Caitrona Balfe. That kind of chaos might make this DeBose's to lose, which is only tradition, as every iteration of Anita in West Side Story on a major stage has won a Tony or an Oscar. Another fun fact: with this nomination, her eighth, Judi Dench has now been nominated in four consecutive decades.
Early winner prediction: Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds-Belfast*
Troy Kotsur-CODA*
Jesse Plemons-The Power of the Dog*
JK Simmons-Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog*
Pleased that my long-shot Jesse Plemons prediction panned out--he's been doing stellar work for decades and deserves the recognition (and, as he's married to Kirsten Dunst, he completes the supporting set of his and hers nominations this morning).The exact opposite of pleased for JK Simmons (one reviewer--I can't remember who, sorry nameless, faceless hero reviewer--wrote that Simmons 'takes a role that he could do in his sleep and then does exactly that), but here we are. Kotsur becomes only the second deaf person nominated for an acting Oscar, and the first man to do so (the only other is Marlee Matlin--who co-starred in CODA--who won Best Actress for Children of a Lesser God in 1986). If Smit-McPhee wins (which he very well might), he would become the second youngest winner ever in this category, at 23 years old (the youngest remains Timothy Hutton, who won at 19 years old for Ordinary People in 1980).
Early winner prediction: Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog
Original Screenplay
Belfast*
Don't Look Up*
King Richard*
Licorice Pizza*
The Worst Person in the World
(In?)arguably the biggest surprise of the morning as Norwegian hit The Worst Person in the World showing up here, when the debate leading up to nominations was if it would even have the strength to make it into International Feature. I haven't seen it yet, but other people seem thrilled--at any rate, I owe it a massive fruit basket every year from now until the heat death of the universe for denying Being the Ricardos a place here.
Early winner prediction: Licorice Pizza
Adapted Screenplay
CODA*
Drive My Car*
Dune*
The Lost Daughter*
The Power of the Dog*
Improbably, my 'Dune gets screenplay but not director, and West Side Story gets director but not screenplay' gambit paid off--which is a real bummer, because West Side Story was a pretty impressive feat of adaptation from all-time great writer Tony Kushner. Well, we can't win them all (but how anyone voted for, hypothetically, Coda over WSS in this category will forever be a mystery to me). Still, this is a ridiculously strong category, and again, Drive My Car! Over the moon that it hit in basically every conceivable category.
Early winner prediction: The Power of the Dog
Production Design
Dune*
Nightmare Alley*
The Power of the Dog*
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story*
Power of the Dog scoring here shows off how strong it was going into nominations (as well as its Sound nomination coming up in a minute), and begins a long line of Belfast not being able to throw the same weight around (thank goodness). This category also begins the Power of the Dog vs. Dune throwdown in the craft categories that will continue right up until the envelopes are opened.
Early winner prediction: Dune
Costume Design
Cruella*
Cyrano*
Dune*
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Gutted to see The Green Knight miss here (and everywhere), but that was always a long shot. Nightmare Alley pops up again in an unexpected place (though much less unexpected than in best picture--still reeling from that a bit), and Cyrano managing to grab something despite its release strategy of pretending not to exist.
Early winner prediction: Dune
Visual Effects
Dune*
Free Guy*
No Time to Die*
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home*
Fans hoping to see Spider-Man in best picture will have to comfort themselves with its solitary nomination here (though, honestly...I have questions about your hopes). In any case, Marvel films very rarely get a nomination in anything other than this category: the only three that have managed were Iron Man with a sound editing nod, Guardians of the Galaxy getting in for Makeup, and Black Panther's 7-nomination run, including best picture. Anyway, now I have to watch Free Guy.
Early winner prediction: Dune
Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America*
Cruella*
Dune*
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci*
This marks House of Gucci's nomination--given I predicted it would be up for five Oscars, including best picture, it's definitely my biggest fumble of the morning. Neither shocked nor surprised, though a little hurt, that Tammy Faye's intense and alien prosthetics snuck in here, but goodness knows this category loves a flashy transformation.
Early winner prediction: Dune
Film Editing
Don't Look Up*
Dune*
King Richard
The Power of the Dog*
Tick Tick Boom
Furious that I didn't follow my last-minute instinct to predict Tick Tick Boom and played it safe instead, but it's a fun choice here--and pretty atypical, as this category skew very close to the best picture race, and Tick Tick Boom won't be found there. As it is traditionally close to impossible to win best picture without a nomination in this category (it's only happened once in the past 40 years), your future best picture winner is almost definitely one of those movies up there.
Early winner prediction: The Power of the Dog
Cinematography
Dune*
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog*
The Tragedy of Macbeth*
West Side Story*
My second biggest cheer of the morning came when I realized that Belfast didn't score here, something that still fills me with glee. Really, Belfast lost most of the momentum it had this morning, not being able to clinch either two of its four possible acting noms and missing here and in production design and film editing. Not that I'm complaining, of course, but strange to think that it was the presumptive frontrunner for like three straight months.
Early winner prediction: Dune
Original Score
Don't Look Up*
Dune*
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog*
I flew a little too close to the sun in predicting Candyman, but you have to have a dream or two. More surprising that The French Dispatch missed here (and everywhere else), making it the first Wes Anderson movie in 15 years not to be Oscar-nominated in some capacity. I ought to have read the tea leaves on Disney+ and included Encanto here, but I wrongfully assumed that the trend of nominating Disney movies for songs only (one that's persisted since the end of the 90s) would continue. Also a delight to see Parallel Mothers pop up somewhere else--one of my favorites of the year, but one I'd figured had no real shot at the Oscars.
Early winner prediction: The Power of the Dog
Sound
Belfast
Dune*
No Time to Die*
The Power of the Dog*
West Side Story*
Wild and bizarre that Belfast manages to hold on here despite all its other misses, but this category sometimes sticks pretty close to the buzzy titles. This is one of No Time to Die's three nominations this morning, making it the second most nominated James Bond movie ever (behind Skyfall's five nominations). And again, The Power of the Dog showing up here reiterates its, uh, power (its dog will have to be reiterated elsewhere).
Original Song
"Be Alive"-King Richard*
"Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto*
"Down to Joy"-Belfast
"No Time to Die"-No Time to Die*
"Somehow You Do"-Four Good Days*
God bless Diane Warren and her yearly tradition of getting nominated for a movie that no one has seen--I assume she's doing this via dark ritual, and would happily volunteer to get sealed in a sarcophagus or whatever for the Diane Warren cause. Oscar ceremony planners must be beside themselves with joy right now, given this category has nominated songs by Billie Eilish, Beyoncé, Van Morrison, and the most popular Disney album of the last 30 years.
Early winner prediction: "Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto
Animated Film
Flee*
Encanto*
Luca*
The Mitchells vs. the Machines*
Raya and the Last Dragon
If Belle had beaten Raya to the finish line, this would have been an all-timer of a lineup, but instead we'll have to settle for four great movies and one lukewarm one. Absolutely thrilled for Luca, Mitchells, and Flee (the hand-wringing about how Flee's campaigning in three categories was wildly off the mark, as you'll soon see).
Early winner prediction: Encanto
International Film
Drive My Car-Japan*
Flee-Denmark*
The Hand of God-Italy*
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom-Bhutan
The Worst Person in the World-Norway
This is another ridiculously strong category (or so I've heard, as I haven't seen all of these yet). Groovy to see a lesser known competitor like Lunana get in, netting Bhutan its first ever nomination, and equally groovy to see every other slot taken by a great movie. This might be my favorite category of the morning, and I haven't even seen two of them yet.
Early winner prediction: Drive My Car-Denmark
Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica*
Flee*
Summer of Soul*
Writing with Fire
Some chaos here, as presumptive frontrunners/strong competitors Procession and The Rescue miss, but I don't know if I can argue with the results (even if I haven't seen a few of these). I'll be curious if Summer of Soul walks to the finish from here, or the instability opens up the possibility of something wacky. With Flee scoring here, it becomes the only movie ever to be nominated in all three specialty categories--animated, international, and documentary. Previously, Collective and Honeyland were nominated in both international and documentary in 2020 and 2019, respectively.
Of the non-specialty categories (i.e not animated, international, or documentary), I've seen most of the nominees already, missing only The Worst Person in the World, Cruella, Coming 2 America, Free Guy, and Four Good Days, all of which are either readily available online or opening soon at a theater near me. The harder to cover categories are a little tougher. I've seen everything in animated, but am still missing The Worst Person in the World, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Attica, Summer of Soul, and Writing with Fire. Of those, both Lunana and Writing with Fire are nowhere to be found, but I'm hoping that will change now that they can add 'Oscar nominee' to their business cards.
Predictions-wise, I didn't thrive, but I didn't totally fall on my face. The only category I completely nailed was Adapted Screenplay (and only going five for five in one category has got to be a personal worst), but I also didn't totally mess up any categories, guessing three or four correctly everywhere else.
For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:
1. The Power of the Dog-12
2. Dune-10
3. Belfast-7
4. West Side Story-7
5. King Richard-6
6. Drive My Car-4
7. Don't Look Up-4
8. Nightmare Alley-4
9. Licorice Pizza-3
10. CODA-3
Seeing it all laid out, it's kind of remarkable how spread out these nominations were, with only two movies really pushing the numbers and everything else pretty evenly distributed. The distinction of most nominated film that isn't nominated for best picture is a four-way tie between Being the Ricardos, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Flee, and No Time to Die, each with three.
And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: Passing, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch, The Harder They Fall, Eternals, Pig, Red Rocket, Respect, The Tender Bar, A Hero, C'mon C'mon, Mass, The Matrix: Resurrections, Black Widow, Last Night in Soho, Great Freedom, Compartment No. 6, Prayers for the Stolen, I'm Your Man, Procession, The Rescue, Bergman Island, Titane, Zola, The Green Knight.
You win some, you lose some.
And there's another year already! How did you react? What's great? What's terrible? What's missing? As always, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I have to say that I love the Oscars and all the silly little things that come along with them, and every year before the nominations I have trouble sleeping, like a kid before Christmas. It's silly and dumb, but hey, so am I, so why not embrace it?
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