If there's one thing we can agree about at the end of another COVID-extended awards season, it's that the upcoming Oscars telecast sounds dumb and bad, and the Oscars booting eight categories from the show to make room for *checks notes* Shaun White, Kelly Slater, and a twitter award that will probably go to Minimata (a Johnny Depp vehicle mostly known for having really intense online fans) is whole volcanic slurry of bad choices. But if we can agree on a second thing (maybe a dubious proposition), it's that having the Oscars at the end of March makes for a real slog to the finish line. Don't get me wrong, I love the Oscars more than anything else on this planet, and when a comet ends all human life, Don't Look Now-style, I only hope that someone thought to stuff Tilda Swinton's Oscar and a couple envelopes into a mini-rocket and send them to the moon or wherever in the universe they're most likely to be appreciated (Ganymede? No one and nothing named Ganymede could be neutral about televised awards shows.) That said, three full months into the new year is maybe a little late to delay the inevitable. Just let us watch Diane Warren mask her disappointment yet again and let the world get on with its cinematic life (celebrating how great a year it is to be a Channing Tatum fan)!
But the Oscar year, such as it was, is coming to a fiery and infuriating end tomorrow night, and we might as well be there to stare at the ruins of Shaun White and attempt to pick up the pieces. I'm ready to move on to the new movie year, but not before I self-flagellate in front of a TV while eating Oscar-shaped foods, as is my destiny.
While the extended season makes for some exhausted conversation (there was nothing more to say about Belfast six months ago, but somehow we've all had to persevere), it has made for some wacky narratives, throwing seemingly sure winners to the dirt and melting Oscar dreams into scrap in favor of what we all found to talk about in the past few weeks. If these Oscars were being held at the end of February, we'd be having very different conversations about the winners--some better and some worse, but universally less chaos, so it all evens out. There are three whole categories where absolutely any nominee could win, and the main race might upset nearly a century of statistics. I don't know if I can recall there ever being such last-minute instability, and I'm here for the insanity, if not necessarily for the winners it might enable. Still, we'll see how it goes--maybe I'm reading too heavily into the very small and echo-chambered world of awards blogging, everyone here just desperate to find something new to talk about, and things are much more predictable than I'm assuming. At any rate, I'm nothing if not well informed, as this year marks the second in a row (second ever, in fact) in which I've been able to see every nominee in every category. So now, I'll be able to let my personal opinions cloud my judgment in all 24 categories--oh happy day! Last year I wrote that I hoped that the widespread online availability of movies that Covid forced would continue, and it has, though that same availability might be low-key killing movie theaters forever. Mixed blessings. Still, I'm glad that the years in which I'd miss huge swaths of nominees because they simple wouldn't open anywhere with 1000 miles of me feel so far away.
So let's get to it! Do note that I predict more for fun than I do for accuracy. There are lots of sites online that can help you ace your Oscar pool, but I'm going to use my space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds.
Best Picture
The nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Until about three weeks ago, the conversation wasn't about what would win here--it was about how many Oscars The Power of the Dog and Dune could split between them, with the latter being a forgone conclusion. And then a funny thing happened: Sundance favorite CODA started winning an untenable number of major awards (the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award, the Producers Guild award, the Writers Guild award, among others), and the momentum lurched into reverse, abandoning Power of the Dog and dragging everyone's favorite mildly gifted high school singer closer and closer to the podium. Is it safe to predict CODA? It's certainly the frontrunner in terms of narrative, momentum, and maybe even popularity, but Academy history is not in its favor. Generally, movies need to be nominated in directing, acting, writing, and editing to win best picture. Though it's possible to win while missing one of those categories (about a quarter of all best picture winners have), only one movie has ever won while only missing two (at least in the era after all of those categories were introduced). And even that movie was a Shakespeare adaptation, so it's lack of a writing nom comes with a huge asterisk (the Academy generally presuming that Shakespeare is Shakespeare, and requires no adaptation). Which means that CODA, missing both directing and editing nominations, faces a massive uphill battle. Add to that the fact that it would be the best picture winner with the fourth fewest nominations of all time--and all three with fewer nominations than it came within the first five years of Oscar history, when there were less than half the number of categories that are currently present. These two statistics together would make CODA's win entirely unprecedented--and yet I can't pretend that it's absolutely in control of the conversation. And the Academy's preferential balloting system (just getting #1 votes can't secure a victory, it needs widespread support and general love) probably favors CODA here. But then again, the Academy's much vaunted new international membership, responsible for upsets like Moonlight and Olivia Colman in recent years, probably favor Power of the Dog.
Long story long, this will be a real nail-biter right to the end, and will probably feel surprising no matter what wins.
Will Win: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Drive My Car
Should Have Been Here: Days
Director
The nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh-Belfast
Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi-Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg-West Side Story
Far less intrigue here--almost unthinkable for Jane Campion to lose, given the film's popularity/industry respect, its obvious and showy formal control, and the fact that none of the other nominees has the narrative or momentum to upset her.
Will Win: Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
Could Win: Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza
Should Win: Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Julia Ducourneau-Titane
Actress
The nominees:
Jessica Chastain-The Eyes of Tammy Fay
Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart-Spencer
The first category which anyone could win, so let's just go down the line. Chastain is the nominal frontrunner right now, having won the past couple awards, she's starring in the Academy's favorite genre for actors (the biopic), she has a makeup-aided transformation, and she's been working long and hard enough to claim a 'due' narrative. Colman is obviously beloved by the Academy (see her previous upset, and her not-a-given nomination for The Father last year), and she's stellar in a film that the Academy might be looking to reward. Cruz is similarly staggering, is hugely respected and also seems due (even though she's won already). Kidman was the frontrunner a couple months ago, and the Academy always struggles to turn down the chance to reward a famous person playing someone famous, but this probably feels like the least likely result. And finally dearest KStew, who was the frontrunner before Kidman, which means it's been long enough that voters have stopped being bored with her as a frontrunner and have started looking at the performance, which is fantastic--plus she is the only nominee other than Chastain not to have won before. But is all that enough to overcome the inexplicable anti-Stewart brigade?
Simply put, this is probably Chastain's to lose, but Cruz has been coming on as a dark threat, and Colman and Stewart both have clear shots at victory. It's everyone's favorite kind of Oscar bloodbath!
Will Win: Kristen Stewart-Spencer (maybe voting with my heart)
Could Win: Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
Should Win: Penelope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
Should Have Been Here: Renate Reinsve-The Worst Person in the World
Actor
The nominees:
Javier Bardem-Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield-Tick Tick Boom
Will Smith-King Richard
Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth
Far less intrigue here--Smith has been way out in front since the beginning, and is just the kind of movie star the Academy loves to award when given the chance, and he's giving just the big biopic-y performance the Academy loves to see. If The Power of the Dog had more staying power, I'd argue that Cumberbatch had a stronger chance, but I don't see it. Ditto Garfield/Tick Tick Boom.
Will Win: Will Smith-King Richard
Could Win: Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Hidetoshi Nishijima-Drive My Car
Supporting Actress
The nominees:
Jessie Buckley-The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
Judi Dench-Belfast
Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard
You'll find a similar argument in almost every acting category--a strong frontrunner, a Power of the Dog star that probably can't go the distance, and not much to hold your breath over. Here, it's DeBose playing Anita--a role that wins almost everyone who plays it major award hardware of some kind. I've heard whispers of an Ellis upset, and it could be true if King Richard goes harder than we expect, but I don't know that I buy it.
Will Win: Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
Could Win: Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard
Should Win: Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Martha Plimpton-Mass
Supporting Actor
The nominees:
Ciaran Hinds-Belfast
Troy Kotsur-CODA
Jesse Plemons-The Power of the Dog
JK Simmons-Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog
Earlier in the year, this looked a duel to the death between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee, but CODA's emergent Oscar juggernaut status means that Kotsur's going to body his opponent, acceptance speech in hand.
Will Win: Troy Kotsur-CODA
Could Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Troy Kotsur-CODA
Should Have Been Here: Vincent Lindon-Titane
Original Screenplay
The nominees:
Belfast
Don't Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Another category that's completely open. Belfast feels like the most traditional winner, and this is the easiest place to honor one of the most nominated movies of the year as well as 8-time Oscar nominee Kenneth Branagh. Don't Look Up could easily benefit from the Academy's inexplicable Adam McKay love, and stands out against the other nominees as a wacky sci-fi satire. It's tough to gauge King Richard's momentum, given the constant CODA/Power of the Dog slugging match, but it's clearly a popular film, and could theoretically triumph here. I'm tempted to give it to Paul Thomas Anderson and Licorice Pizza, as Anderson is hugely respected, is squarely in his loved-by-the-Academy phase, and has never won an Oscar. And there seems to be tons of chatter online about The Worst Person in the World upsetting here, but it's hard to tell if that's a legitimate possibility or if it's just the kind of thing we chat about when we're bored with a long Oscar season.
Will Win: Licorice Pizza
Could Win: Belfast
Should Win: Licorice Pizza
Should Have Been Here: Bergman Island
Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
Drive My Car
Probably a solid bellwether for what wins best picture. I think Power could lose this and still take picture, but I don't know if CODA can lose here and still take picture--it needs to be strong enough to win every category it's in if it's going to take the main prize. That said, there's more than a small possibility that The Lost Daughter wins this instead and leaves us all scratching our heads.
Will Win: CODA
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: West Side Story
Production Design
The nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Moving into the crafts categories we'll have the same question basically everywhere: can ________ beat Dune? Here, at least, I think the answer is no. Nightmare Alley might put up a good fight, but I think Dune's massive and brutal worldbuilding will be too much to pass up.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Nightmare Alley
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: The French Dispatch
Costume Design
The nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Hard to imagine that Cruella's elaborate wacky fashions will lose here, but could theoretically fall to a Dune sweep. Still, if Dune loses any craft Oscar, I'd bet on it being this one.
Will Win: Cruella
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: The Green Knight
Visual Effects
The nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
No way Dune loses here.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: Spider-Man: No Way Home
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: Godzilla vs. Kong
Makeup and Hairstyling
The nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
The Academy has been trending toward prosthetic-heavy biopic transformations of late, which bodes well for The Eyes of Tammi Faye, as does Jessica Chastain's possible Oscar (this award also gets paired with best actress with some frequency). If Dune wins this, you can expect a significant Dune sweep. Look out for Cruella, I suppose, but in a pretty tenuous and goofy kind of way.
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: Titane
Film Editing
The nominees:
Don't Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick Tick Boom
The last totally open category--and it's wild that it's this one, given how non-adventurous the category normally is, and how often it's linked with best picture. Don't Look Up has the exact kind of jangly and frenetic rhythm that plays as 'best' or 'most' editing, which gibes it a leg up. Dune is the kind of action film/genre epic that frequently gets rewarded here, but misses just as often. King Richard recently won the American Cinema Editors award, and might have way more momentum than we expect--if it wins here, look for it to show up elsewhere. The Power of the Dog feels like the obvious call, given it's most likely to win best picture, but it just doesn't feel like a traditional editing winner (but if it wins here, you can pretty much take to the bank that it's winning best picture). Finally, Tick Tick Boom, the only nominee that isn't also up for best picture. It's got a lot of popularity, and its editing might also be the flashiest (give or take Don't Look Up). A fascinating and unpredictable category, and it's a shame and an insult that the Academy will be presenting it on twitter before the ceremony instead of during the live show. On the very off chance that the producer of the Oscars telecast reads my blog, I hope you feel terrible about yourself. Exiling these categories is so, so stupid, and goes against everything that the Oscars are supposed to be. Aaaaghggh it makes me want to rage-vomit.
Will Win: Tick Tick Boom (my no guts no glory pick)
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Zola
Cinematography
The nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Dune's desert bonanza against The Power of the Dog's Montana hellscape. This probably goes to Dune (the Academy does love a big cgi eye-popper in this category), but my fingers are crossed for Dog's Ari Wegner, who, if she wins, will become the first woman to win this category, which is the last category that no woman has ever won.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Days
Original Score
The nominees:
Don't Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
a clear three-way race between the electronic weirdness of Dune, the angry strings of Power of the Dog, and the warmth of Encanto. Probably comes down to which of the three films are most popular, which is anyone's guess. I may pick Power of the Dog here--not because I necessarily think it's got the best chance of winning, but if I don't, then I'm predicting that Power wins only one of its twelve nominations (and that one is director), which just doesn't feel right.
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Could Win: Dune
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Have Been Here: Luca
Sound
The nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Another easy Dune victory. If West Side Story were more of a force, I'd say it had a chance, but it's been quietly sinking on the awards circuit pretty much since it released.
Will Win: Dune
Could Win: West Side Story
Should Win: Dune
Should Have Been Here: Titane
Original Song
The nominees:
"Be Alive"-King Richard
"Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto
"Down to Joy"-Belfast
"No Time to Die"-No Time to Die
"Somehow You Do"-Four Good Days
Probably a photo finish between Billie Eilish/No Time to Die and Lin-Manuel Miranda/Encanto, which is just the competition we expected to see at the Oscars. If Miranda wins this, he'll complete his EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony). Kind of weird to count out Beyoncé/Be Alive, but I can't imagine her pulling it out.
Will Win: "Dos Oruguitas"-Encanto
Could Win: "No Time to Die"-No Time to Die
Should Win: "Down to Joy"-Belfast (although Van Morrison is an anti-vax pile of garbage)
Should Have Been Here: "Gales of Song"-Belle
Animated Film
The nominees:
Flee
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragan
Easy to assume that it's Encanto's to lose--watch how it performs in the music categories to see if Mitchells or Flee have a chance to upset.
Will Win: Encanto
Could Win: The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Should Win: Flee
Should Have Been Here: Belle
International Film
The nominees:
Drive My Car-Japan
Flee-Denmark
The Hand of God-Italy
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom-Bhutan
The Worst Person in the World-Norway
No international film ever nominated for best picture has lost this award (since the award's inception), so Drive My Car probably has this in the bag. I've heard tons about a Worst Person upset here too, but I am not sure if that's a thing to expect or if this movie has some fans in the Oscar blogging world that are trying to manifest the upset into reality.
Will Win: Drive My Car
Could Win: The Worst Person in the World
Should Win: Drive My Car
Should Have Been Here: Titane
Documentary Feature
The nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
Summer of Soul has all the momentum going in, and is your probable winner, particularly given that Ascension, Attica, and Writing with Fire already feel like also-rans. The only question is whether Flee, a clearly beloved film that was the first to score nominations in all three 'specialty' categories, can convert any of those nominations to a win. Here feels like the only possibility--no way it muscles past Drive My Car/Worst Person in international film or past Encanto and Mitchells in Animated, but being the clear alternate to Summer of Soul might work in its favor.
Will Win: Summer of Soul
Could Win: Flee
Should Win: Flee
Should Have Been Here: Abastain (I don't watch nearly enough documentaries to pick something)
And that's that! I've got Dune as the biggest winner of the night with four statues, but even that feels like a fairly slight number. Honestly, I can't say I'm too confident about most of these, but that's where the fun comes in! Catch my face tomorrow night, a silent and horrified grimace while all my least-favorite movies march to the stage. (Three Oscars for CODA! Five Oscars for Belfast! Two for Lucifer, to whom the Academy has clearly handed the reins!) Whatever happens, it's sure to be both atrocious and remarkable.
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