So, like...did we make it? Is this what making it looks like?
Last year (and the year before) I wrote in the intro to my first Oscar post that eventually have to stop writing about being in a post-pandemic world and the meaninglessness of time and just move on with our lives. And like...is this what that looks like, at least cinematically? Barbenheimer happened! More movies started coming out again! It looks like people are finally getting sick of Marvel! Wonders abound. We're not out of the woods yet, but it's always nice to enjoy another mile or two of woods before the fires come to take all us woodland critters. And I mentioned all of this in my blog post last year, so I have to assume that I can claim direct responsibility. (I also mentioned that in 2023 Godzilla would come along and surprise us all, thus further establishing my credibility/incredible power and influence.) Things are far from perfect, and time may still feel a little meaningless, but we'll take what we get, at least until next year when things really hit the fan (again).
If we're moving on, then movies--and the Academy--certainly are as well. Or...maybe that's not accurate. While this year's Oscars won't be dominated by movies largely preoccupied with the death (or relevance) of the film industry and ways to exist outside its confines, they most certainly will be dominated by an dizzying number of period pieces and outright attempts to fold contemporary film techniques, pretzel-like, into shapes that let us all believe that we're not where or when we are (I see your digital-grain-ass shenanigans The Holdovers, you scamp). And whether it's nostalgia or horror, looking back is going to define the conversations about many of this year's Oscar nominees. So prepare your fanciest mirror or your most listless and jellied running shoes, and let's have a quick gander at everything that lurks behind our shoulders.
All of this is to say that hooray, the Oscar nominations are tomorrow! The Oscars are the one part of the year I get to take flight. Forget Oppenheimer's claim to being the modern Prometheus, that's all me, except I'm faster, haven't glued my blog together with wax (I assume), and am much less likely to unleash nuclear hellfire on an uncaring world (for now). Every awards season I get to fly directly into the sun and pass through laughing to the other side, and all of you get the absolute joy of watching me do it. Who doesn't want to read a couple thousands words about golden statues and the people who covet them? If you're here, I have to assume that you must (or, at the very least, feel compelled to give me a click or two, which is just as good), so we might as well dive in. Maybe not dive in however, as this year's pool is exceptionally shallow. The same 10-15 movies have dominated the conversation, and we can safely count on four or five of the strongest of those showing up in almost category. In fact, this year might set or tie multiple records for the number of best picture nominees category, which means that movies not in that top 10 are in for a rough morning.
But who's going to have a rough morning and who is Christopher Nolan going to invite to his annual Oscar Hunger Games (the winner gets to play a supporting role in his next movie, as long as they are a severe British man)? I'm not expecting tons of surprises, but I do love getting egg on my face, and I hope the Academy is firing up its skillet. I'll go ahead and dump all of my predictions in one massive list--because if there's one thing other than the Oscars that brings me joy, it's carving hours from your day. Bear in mind that I tend to predict a little more for fun than I do for accuracy. There are plenty of places you can go to check the odds for your Oscar pool, but this is, as Nicole Kidman probably wouldn't say, is where we come for magic, if by magic Nicole Kidman means a barrage of lists in which I ignore reality and predict some of my favorites instead.
(note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood--so the first movie is the most likely, the second is the next most likely, etc.)
Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Poor Things
Barbie
Maestro
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
Saltburn
Alternate: The Zone of Interest
There have been exactly 10 movies that have completely dominated the conversation over this category, and one of them certainly isn't Saltburn. So if you're a betting person, just swap in The Zone of Interest and count your money. But, for whatever reason, I have largely decided to ignore The Zone of Interest today in favor of other, less likely picks--but, again, do so at your own prognosticating peril. If we are talking spoilers for that big 10 (my top 9 picks plus Interest), what's on the table? I still suspect The Color Purple might stumble across the finish line, as the last unveiled prestige piece frequently does, or maybe May December or All of Us Strangers have enough support to sneak in. Or what about Saltburn? It's hated by many but has super passionate fans, and continues to sneak into rooms where it's not expected or wanted: it overperformed with Critic's Choice nominations (including a best picture nomination), got more nominations than expected at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, and has continued to appear on the edges of award season--particularly with the guild awards aka the people who actually vote on Oscars. It's probably dumb to bet against The Zone of Interest--or any other movie--not taking that tenth slot, but my guess is that Saltburn manages to sneak into the conversation once again.
Director
Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things
Alexander Payne-The Holdovers
Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Greta Gerwig-Barbie
Somewhat gutted to leave Greta Gerwig out of the top five, but them's the breaks. Really, though, only the top two feel truly safe, while Lanthimos, Payne, and Triet easily give up their spot for Gerwig or Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. I wouldn't be surprised by any configuration of those five directors, but would be deeply surprised by anyone else getting in. Who has the juice--Bradley Cooper/Maestro? Celine Song/Past Lives? Anything outside of the top seven feels implausible.
Actress
Emma Stone-Poor Things
Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan-Maestro
Margot Robbie-Barbie
Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Greta Lee-Past Lives
Came so close to predicting a surprise Carey Mulligan snub--who has watched and loved Maestro other than the mothers of everyone involved (and even a few of them thought it was a little indulgent)? It's tempting to call Mulligan as a casualty of the Academy's seeming ambivalence to her and everyone's growing weariness with Bradley Cooper, but in the end I stuck with it. This top six feels like your roster though, give or take Annette Bening in Nyad, who, to be fair, is the only potential nominee who had to simulate getting a jellyfish in their mouth, which has to count for something.
Actor
Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction
Bradley Cooper-Maestro
Colman Domingo-Rustin
Alternate: Barry Keoghan-Saltburn
Came even closer to predicting a shocker Bradley Cooper snub--even went so far as to write it up that way and continue writing until the end of this post until I came back here to lose my nerve. I think it's certainly possible--the Academy might be getting a little bored of Cooper talking about his decade-long impossible and herculean struggle to pretend to be Leonard Bernstein, so we still might get to watch him shamble, weeping, out of the Dolby and into another raccoon suit. Deeply silly to imagine that Keoghan would the benefactor of Cooper's raccoon tragedies, rather than Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers or Leonardo Dicaprio/Killers of the Flower Moon, but the latter has been fading and the former is both gay and a little scary. Granted, so is Barry Keoghan in Saltburn, but in a way that doesn't make you want to call your parents.
Supporting Actress
Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
Jodie Foster-Nyad
Rosamund Pike-Saltburn
Alternate: Penelope Cruz-Ferrari
Beyond Randolph, who has giddily smashed every statue in her path to victory, this category feels unusually open. This might be because it is the only above the line category this year in which multiple non best picture-nominated films have a shot. But, as the Academy is absolutely glued to those top 10 movies this year, that means that Blunt is probably safe, and all the others can fight for her scraps. Brooks is safe on paper, but The Color Purple might just be out of breath right before the finish line. That leaves it on even ground with all the other performances from films that have lost steam below it, as well as Julianne Moore/May December and best picture coattail hopefuls America Ferrera/Barbie and Sandra Hüller/The Zone of Interest. Hüller in particular seems like the new consensus pick, but I struggle to see it happening--though, as I said above, I have arbitrarily decided that The Zone of Interest is getting mostly shut out and have no good reason for thinkin so. Instead I'll pick Rosamund Pike, who would have a strong shot even if Saltburn didn't go on the big improbable run for which I'm predicting it.
Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton-May December
Matt Damon-Oppenheimer
Alternate: Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things
Top three slots are probably rock solid, with a veritable avalanche of actors fighting for the last two slots. It's probably not wise to leave this category without either of the Poor Things boys (the other being Willem Dafoe), but Ruffalo's performance feels like the kind of thing people think they like until they're asked to commit, and Dafoe only gets in if the movie overperforms in general. Speaking of overperforming, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction, Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, and maybe even Jacob Elordi/Saltburn could all make a showing if their respective films hit harder than expected. But for my money, I'm betting on Charles Melton's early season passion being enough for him to scrape by, and for Matt Damon to benefit from the near-annual 'you were also in this movie we liked, won't you please come to our party' nomination.
Original Screenplay
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
May December
Saltburn
Alternate: Maestro
Another place to ignore me as I convulse happily on a limb and put Maestro in the top five. Hard to see much outside those six sneaking in, however. Cannot for the life of me imagine anyone still thinking about Air all these months later, Asteroid City's totally flopped on the awards circuit, as has The Iron Claw. It's the six above or nothing, I think.
Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Alternate: All of Us Strangers
Well, the nice thing about the Academy being so laser-focused on the same movies is that I only ever have to type a few titles. Toss in The Zone of Interest and that's probably your only possible nominees. Remember when we were talking about Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret for this? Halcyon days.
Production Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Asteroid City
Now we settle in for a long line of craft categories in which best picture nominees take most of the spots while movies not in that top group break each other's limbs for a little attention. Here, said limb-breaker is Asteroid City, which makes a lot of sense as a nominee here, but I've decided it misses in favor of Interest's historical recreations. Wonka or Saltburn could land here if the Academy is feeling a little frisky, or Maestro or Napoleon if not.
Costume Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
The Color Purple
Alternate: Oppenheimer
I'm basing my final slot here on two things: 1) my mom was impressed and excited by The Color Purple's evolving costumes over the decades, and 2) I might like Oppenheimer more than most Christopher Nolan movies, but not enough that I want anyone involved with it to be able to smile too much. Tough category to pin down, in that nothing beyond the first two or three slots feels that likely as a nominee. Wonka and Maestro could also show up, but is there any reason they're more likely than any of the others? Hard to say. Almost predicted a left field Hunger Games nomination, but you can only indulge in so much whimsy before your whimsy meter runs out and you have to go recharge the whimsy elf that lives in your closet for just such a purpose.
Visual Effects
The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Godzilla Minus One
Napoleon
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Poor Things
Arguably the wackiest category of the year at this moment. I'm actively rooting against Poor Things, not because I don't think it'd be a worthy nominee (...though, uh), but because a best picture nominee getting in here would make the race much easier to call, and as it stands it's pure anarchy. Anything could get in! Anything could win! The old gods are dead, and the new ones are all animated or like like big lizards! In addition to the six above, Indiana Jones and Society of the Snow could just as easily get in--and win!--as any of the others. Really, no movie is safe here, and anything could happen.
Makeup
Maestro
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Society of the Snow
Beau is Afraid
Alternate: Golda
So many years, in so many categories, I'll make predictions purely under the assumption that the Academy as a monolith watches everything I do and acts solely out of spite, throwing nominations to movies designed to test and punish me in ways unknowable and unimaginable. But what if I chose to believe in dignity? What if I believed that the Academy has finally learned the boundaries of human suffering and is choosing pity this year? All of this is a long and ridiculous way to say that I'm not predicting Golda because I really don't have to watch it, and I'm hoping the Academy will choose kindness. Makeup is always one of the most volatile categories, so expect any of the top six to fall out and make room for Napoleon, Killers of the Flower Moon, Ferrari, or The Last Voyage of the Demeter.
Film Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Poor Things
This easily feels like the most straightforward category that I am most likely to get wrong. Predicting a Poor Things snub is probably ill-conceived, but I operate under the assumption that the film's shagginess will outweigh its best picture credentials, and I am still for no reason snubbing The Zone of Interest in most places, so here we are. It'd be deeply surprising to see anything but those seven movies show up in this category, unless Maestro or American Fiction is much closer to winning best picture than anyone thinks.
Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Poor Things
El Conde
Alternate: Saltburn
I was tempted to ignore Poor Things' variety pack of lenses from Kroger here--and I still think that's possible--but I suppose I can only predict so many surprise Poor Things omissions before I start implying that it's out of the best picture race, which it certainly isn't, so I guess the Kroger lenses get to stay. El Conde feels like the kind of nomination that surprises people in the morning who then two days later make the argument that most black and white movies that come down the pike get picked for this category. The Zone of Interest could easily make this category if it's feeling robust, as could Saltburn or even Barbie if either lands in a big way.
Original Score
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moons
Poor Things
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Feels wrong for Spider-Man to miss here, but I feel in my bones that the Academy will warm to American Fiction's elevator music and John Williams (Indiana Jones) has only missed a nomination in this category for three movies in the past 20 years, so it's dangerous to bet against him. But this category's volatile, and Oppenheimer is the only nomination I'd really bet on. Barbie, The Zone of Interest, and Saltburn could all show up if their movie is strong enough, Elemental and Society of the Snow might show up if the Academy plays their favorite composers, and The Boy and the Heron could even slip in if the Academy is feeling sentimental about Miyazaki and/or enjoys watching large militarized birds attack to a snappy tune. Anything's possible, and if you're looking for a major shakeup in any category, you might look to this one.
Sound
Oppenheimer
Maestro
Ferrari
The Zone of Interest
The Killer
Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon
I'm going to play the hero and predict The Killer to shock here when no one else would--it's a tough job, but someone (other than David Fincher) has to do it. Both Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie could swoop in to take the year's token best picture contender slot, and Napoleon might have wowed enough people with all its cold and watery carnage to have earned a spot here. Still, I think the narrative in this category is how many big best picture contenders push out how many non best picture nominees.
Original Song
"I'm Just Ken"-Barbie
"What Was I Made For"-Barbie
"The Fire Inside"-Flamin' Hot
"It Never Went Away"-American Symphony
"Can't Catch Me Now"-The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Alternate: "Road to Freedom"-Rustin
Year in and year out the most difficult to predict category. Only one thing is certain: once again, Diane Warren's blood pact with Moloch the Deceiver has been fulfilled and a new wretched beast--this one about the invention of flaming hot cheetos, allegedly--stirs in the depths and shambles its slow and apparently inevitable path to the Dolby theater. At some point, there has to be some kind of orchestrated look into how Diane Warren never fails to get Oscar nominations for movies that seemingly don't exist, but until then we're all gonna just have to watch the cheeto movie to sate the little completionist goblins that live in our brains. I'm also predicting an unprecedent moment, the Hunger Games movies getting their first Oscar nomination five movies into the franchise, something that has never happened in the history of franchises, because...well, because I think season favorite "Road to Freedom" is a song that should make everyone involved feel a little bad about themselves, and that's my only reason. But this category is always anarchy, so who knows? It's tempting to really choose chaos and pick either of the shortlisted songs from Flora and Son (speaking of movies that didn't exist until someone wrote a song for them), or assume that the songs from Past Lives or Killers of the Flower Moon get in on pedigree alone, but I think I'll stick with my potentially history-making Olivia Rodrigo bop from The Hunger Games, just for fun.
Animated Film
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Suzume:
Alternate: Nimona
Probably a mistake not to predict Nimona, a movie that's had a great precursor run, in favor of the little anime movie (especially when the category is already home to another not so little anime movie), especially given Netflix's stellar track record, but here we are. Look for Robot Dreams to potentially fill Suzume's artsy movie slot, or for Mario to take the turtles' mainstream slot, or maybe something terribly shocking from a movie whose name I don't even know right now--it wouldn't be the first time it'd happened in this category.
International Film
The Zone of Interest-The United Kingdom
Society of the Snow-Spain
Fallen Leaves-Finland
Totem-Mexico
The Teacher's Lounge-Germany
Alternate: 20 Days in Mariupol-Ukraine
Nothing can stop The Zone of Interest's domination in this category, but everything below it is on shaky ground--it's a strangely fluid year in this category, partially made possible by how a lot of the movies that won this category during the precursor season (Anatomy of a Fall, Godzilla Minus One, Past Lives) are ineligible in this category at the Oscars. I'm sure I'll be kicking myself tomorrow for not slipping 20 Days in Mariupol into the top 5, and the same could easily be said for Perfect Days/Japan and The Taste of Things/France. Opting for a Monk and the Gun/Bhutan shocker is a nice thought, but it'd be awfully lucky and/or bizarre for the country--and the same director--to score two shocking nominations with two consecutive submissions.
Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
American Symphony
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Beyond Utopia
Four Daughters
Alternate: The Eternal Memory
Perennially the category I know the least about and struggle the most to be invested in, so take these predictions with a bus-sized grain of salt. Thought about predicting a snub for the presumed frontrunner American Symphony, just because this category sometimes likes to throw the awards seasons' favorite darlings in the wood chipper and dance in the rain, but I couldn't justify anything below it having enough passion to unseat it. Still, if it does get snubbed, remember you heard it here first and I absolutely thought about predicting it, which is more or less the same as actually doing so, right?
And there you have it! For those playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:
Oppenheimer-13
Killers of the Flower Moon-10
Poor Things-9
Barbie-9
The Holdovers-6
I might have gone a little too hard on Maestro and Poor Things, but the rest make sense to me--it feels like the kind of year where everything scurries off the landing strip to make room for one movie's big entrance, and Christopher Nolan's flying that plane.
I know it's silly for me to spend this much time talking about movies and Oscars without talking about any of my own picks--and you can all rest easy, because those are certainly coming. I'm aiming for the first week or two in February, depending on when and how I can still see a few more movies, as well as what happens in my life in the next few weeks. But for now, if I could guarantee any nominations, it'd be Julianne Moore getting in for May December (or maybe Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers), and if I could prevent any one nomination, I would visit a plague of furious owls on all the people voting for Poor Things in editing and cinematography (though that's only because I know that not even furious owls will keep Robert Downey Jr. from getting his Oscar nod for Oppenheimer).
And that's it! In a little more than 12 hours, every one of these predictions will be absolutely meaningless, which is exactly as it should be. I'll be back in the morning to unwrap all the Oscar presents and see how happy we should be (or how many rocks we have to throw).
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