Well, I'm afraid the inevitable is going to keep occurring, wherein 'the inevitable' is one of at least three things: a) my schedule and general procrastination means that I'm going to rush through another movie post this year, b) Oppenheimer is going to cruise to a truly unholy number of Oscar wins, and/or c) the sun is going to explode (but hopefully not before we find out if Godzilla is going to win an Oscar tonight). And I can speak with some confidence in saying that yes, this post will be rushed, yes, Oppenheimer will win enough Oscars to either stop or start another World War, and yes, the sun will explode (but not for a few minutes, at least). Beyond those three things? It's anybody's game (though what kind of game you want to play that doesn't involve my blogging, prestigious Oscar movies, or the sun, I'll never know).
Eagle-eyed readers (or actual eagles of any nature) might have noticed that I posted on Thursday saying that I'd be traveling and as such needed to finish all posts before the end of the day. Even sharper readers might notice that today is Sunday and here I am; I'll leave you to deduce how meeting the Thursday deadline went. As such, I'll just launch into things--the Oscars, after all, are only about six hours away (don't forget, they're starting at 5 pm Mountain for the first time ever, assumably because the network is punishing them for their sins). Which means that this post has about six hours of already dubious relevance--is there anything worse than reading Oscar predictions after the ceremony?
But regardless of how things go, and how rushed they have to be, I'm still pleased as punch to be ranting about them. The Oscars have played a constant role in my life from 1997 on, and predicting from 2003, and they are, ridiculously, they schedule by which I set my year. Like it or not (and, given the word count, I obviously like it), they're a big part of how I keep track of a year, or the passage of time, or my own silly life. And I appreciate that you're part of it, just by being here to read this! (Go ahead and say a grateful prayer that you're not in my family, who is treated annually to a semi-mandatory barrage of movie marathons, production bonanzas, and self-catered watch parties.)
While I might not be Oppenheimer's biggest fan (though I do like it), I have to be thankful for it in at least this one instance: the fact that it is going to charge like a bull through my emotional china shop, killing every little gold man it finds, will make today's post much easier to write quickly. But outside of Oppenheimer's vast swath of predicted terror, there's still some wacky intrigue to be found on the margins. And who doesn't leave giddy intrigue? I will happily guide you through the madness, or do my best approximation of guiding you whilst muttering something unspeakable about Ryan Gosling. I haven't seen nearly as many Oscar nominees as I might have seen (I'm ashamed to admit I haven't seen literally any of the documentary nominees), but what I lack in firsthand knowledge, I make up for in whimsy and good intentions.
So let's get to it! Do note that I can lean more toward fun than accuracy at the Oscars (though I might have shied away from that a little more this year). There are lots of websites that can help you ace your Oscar pool, but I'll always use this space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Well, whatever wacky intrigue was promised certainly won't begin here. Anything but Oppenheimer winning would constitute one of the bigger and more surprising upsets in the last 50 years of Oscar history. It's got the momentum, it's got the timely appeal, it's got the apparent and inscrutable love for Christopher Nolan that I will never understand. I suppose you could look to The Holdovers or Killers of the Flower Moon (or even Anatomy of a Fall?) for a shocker, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: The Holdovers
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: May December
Director
Jonathan Glazer-The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things
Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall
Everything that I said above is multiplied x10 here. There's no way that any late-breaking Anatomy of a Fall momentum or 'let's honor Scorsese again' sentiment derails Christopher Nolan's coronation, so I hope he's brought his tiara.
Will Win: Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Could Win: Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson-Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Actress
Annette Bening-Nyad
Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan-Maestro
Emma Stone-Poor Things
Some actual-ass intrigue in this category (which, you will find mostly only happens in categories where Oppenheimer isn't present), with Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone fighting it out to the bitter end. Stone has all the early momentum, but Gladstone recently won the Screen Actors Guild award, a possible sign that the moment has shifted. There also appears more of a desire to award Gladstone: the narrative of a hardworking character actor giving a revelatory performance--for people who hadn't already seen her other work--and being the first indigenous person to win an acting Oscar seeming like a better outcome than Emma Stone, beloved as she is, getting her second Oscar before she hits 40. It'll be a nailbiter down to the moment the envelope is opened, but I can't help but wonder if Killers of the Flower Moon's underperformance on the awards circuit and at the Oscar nominations will be enough to tank Gladstone's chances in the face of Poor Things's clear popularity. And, if you want to jump for something totally off the wall, you could predict that Anatomy of a Fall's momentum surge and Stone and Gladstone's tight race is enough to bring Sandra Hüller in under the radar. It's a wild thought, but wilder things have certainly happened.
Will Win: Emma Stone-Poor Things
Could Win: Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: Greta Lee-Past Lives
Actor
Bradley Cooper-Maestro
Colman Domingo-Rustin
Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction
A similar race to best actress, but a slightly less contested one. Like Emma Stone, Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers consumed most of the early season air in this category, and like Lily Gladstone, Cillian Murphy won the SAG award recently, suggesting a changing of the winds. But where those two women are still neck and neck, Murphy gains the obvious advantage here for playing the titular character in a movie that could tie--or even break--the record for the most Oscars ever won by a movie. This isn't finished yet, and it wouldn't be totally shocking to see Giamatti pull out a win, but the atomic bomb is definitely in Cillian Murphy's court.
Will Win: Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
Could Win: Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
Should Win: Colman Domingo-Rustin
Should Have Been Here: Andrew Scott-All of Us Strangers
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
America Ferrera-Barbie
Jodie Foster-Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Probably the easiest call of the night, give or take international film. Randolph hasn't lost any film award in this category (outside of a couple smaller regional critics groups back in December), and certainly isn't looking to lose this one. If Emily Blunt wins here, then expect Oppenheimer to go for an unprecedented 13-for-13 streak.
Will Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Could Win: Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
Should Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Should Have Been Here: Julianne Moore-May December
Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown-American Fiction
Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things
Another easy call: Robert Downey Jr. continues his baffling (to me) march to the stage of the Dolby theater. I'm sure I won't be the only ones crossing my fingers and sending some positive Kenergy in hopes of a different outcome, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
Could Win: Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Should Win: Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Should Have Been Here: Charles Melton-May December
Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Another actual-ass race! In this category, you can pit the late-season ascendancy of Anatomy of a Fall against the early season comforts of The Holdovers. They're both in approximately the same place, as far as best picture momentum is concerned, and they're both about equally well loved. The Holdovers gains an advantage by virtue of the fact that it's in English, where Anatomy isn't (non-English language films have won for writing before, but it doesn't happen frequently), and Anatomy gains advantage by seeming to be the more complex of the two (...which should sound like a compliment). Another category where it'll be down to the wire. Can Past Lives capitalize on its rival's competition? Possibly, but also no.
Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could Win: The Holdovers
Should Win: May December
Should Have Been Here: Asteroid City
Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
One of the toughest categories to predict! (Almost) anyone could win! Huzzah! Now, I know what I think you're thinking: if Oppenheimer is some Oscars juggernaut, how could this category be tough to predict? And you're not wrong--the easy answer is to assume that Oppenheimer commits a whole bunch of awards murder here just like it will in many other categories. That said, if you're looking to stir up a little trouble, Oppenheimer's writing is far from its most celebrated aspect (there was a question of whether it would even get a nomination here), and the category seems primed for the anti-Oppenheimer voters to find their voice. But to whose benefit? American Fiction feels like the (other) easy answer: it's a snappy and (kind of) contemporary satire that stakes its reputation on being quippy, clever, and directly engaging with the concept of language, aka the kind of movie they award here all the time. You could make similar claims about Poor Things--an expansive and well-loved adaptation with a very distinctive voice that focuses on concepts of language and communication. And finally, you have Barbie, a movie whose Oscar journey turned out rockier than expected. If voters are feeling penitent for having snubbed Gerwig in director, one easy way to show that contrition would be to give her an Oscar in screenplay. Plus, it's a strange, funny, and surprising movie that is clearly well-loved by the world, and its champions might carry the day for it here. Additionally, it's been classified as an original screenplay by all the other awards bodies, so we don't really have any data about how it will compete against these movies, since they've generally not been in the same category together. Still, if the Academy were desperate to reward Barbie, they would have started by, y'know, rewarding Barbie with nominations.
So there it is: pick Oppenheimer as the easy answer, or pick one of the other choices if you feel like a little chaos.
Will Win: Barbie (the heart wants what it wants, even when it's not likely)
Could Win: American Fiction
Should Win: Barbie
Should Have Been Here: Killers of the Flower Moon
Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Casual deathmatch here between Poor Things and Barbie. Which film's popularity brings it the win? Which film's wacky visuals feel more compelling to voters? Will Oppenheimer say 'I don't care, look, I made a town in New Mexico for your enjoyment,' pushing the ladies on the way to the podium? I honestly couldn't tell you. This category's a guess, and yours is as good as mine.
Will Win: Barbie
Could Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Barbie
Should Have Been Here: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Exact same arguments as the previous category, except with a little more general hand-waving. But where Oppenheimer has a valid chance in the previous category, you should only expect it to win here if it's going to tie or break the record number of Oscars won.
Will Win: Poor Things
Could Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
Should Have Been Here: Saltburn
Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning: Part One
Napoleon
Anarchy! Pure Anarchy! Go burn an effigy on your lawn and hope for the best! Which is to say that Oppenheimer's absence has created a vacuum in which any one of these nominees could win, though it's a likelier path for some than for others. Your smartest bests are Godzilla and The Creator, each of which are peddling a similar narrative of a spunky visual effects department with small budget turning out stellar work in a way that didn't punish the artists like other, large (Disney-er) movies might. (Granted, Godzilla's budget was about $55 million smaller than The Creator's, but they're also very different movies.) The Creator is hindered by the fact that not many people saw it, and even fewer people liked it, but it does look gorgeous in a way that wins awards. Godzilla has to contend with the fact that no non-English language film has ever won this category, and that some voters will surely feel voting for a Godzilla movie in any category. That said, it is, weirdly, the most prestigious movie up for the award, which definitely helps.
Five years ago, I'd have said that this was the perfect opportunity to reward Marvel with their first Visual Effects Oscar, but a lot has changed in the last five years, most pertinently how no one seems that excited about Marvel. So Guardians is a threat, by maybe a minor one. I've read that people's love for the Mission: Impossible franchise will swell and guide it to the win, but I can't help but think that if such a swell existed among Oscar voters, they might have given the franchise a nomination before this, its seventh movie. And Napoleon is also here. Good for you, Napoleon! You go, Napoleon. Someone get a time machine real quick and go explain to actual Napoleon what Oscars are and why he won't win any.
Will Win: Godzilla Minus One
Could Win: The Creator
Should Win: Godzilla Minus One
Should Have Been Here: Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Somehow, despite the constant Discourse, Maestro is still a threat to win this--let's chalk it up to the power of Kazu Hiro, one of the Academy's new and very favorite makeup artists. That said, the tides seem to be changing, and we might expect Emma Stone to surf into town on a board made of her own hair, winking at a clapping Bradley Cooper as Poor Things sneaks in for the win. At any rate, this award has paired not infrequently in the recent past with a lead acting award, so if you're predicting Emma Stone to win actress (like I am), then it seems silly not to expect a win here as well. Of course, you could just as easily use that argument to suggest that Oppenheimer pairs its best actor win with a makeup win, and you're not wrong.
Will Win: Poor Things
Could Win: Maestro
Should Win: Society of the Snow*
Should Have Been Here: Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
*I haven't seen Golda
Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Thing
Fair warning: we're now entering a whole stretch of categories that Oppenheimer will almost definitely win, and the only thing to do is call out what wild upset would happen if tonight got wild and upsetting. In this case, it's probably nothing. If Oppenheimer loses here, expect it to lose pretty much everywhere (...a phrase which in Oppenheimer's case means 'only win 3-5 Oscars instead of 9-12). Anatomy of a Fall would probably the one to push it off its throne here, but don't count on it.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Have Been Here: Priscilla
Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Another Oppenheimer category, and one as equally unlikely for it to lose. Poor Things or Killers as upsets? Maybe, but it's just as likely that a piece of Skynet falls down onto your summer camp.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon*
Should Have Been Here: Saltburn
*I haven't seen El Conde
Original Score
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Another Oppenheimer category, this one slightly more likely to upset. While I absolutely don't think it'll happen, it's possible that the Academy will want to reward Robbie Robertson, the composer of Killers of the Flower Moon who passed away shortly after the film was released. It's a possible narrative, and a stronger one than 'Poor Things likes fisheye lenses and so do I.' That said, the Academy might have shown just how much it thinks about posthumously honoring people film fans think they should honor with the 2020 Chadwick Boseman kerfuffle.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Should Have Been Here: Society of the Snow
Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning: Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Another Oppenheimer category, this one with the most compelling anti-Oppenheimer argument of all! It would be devastatingly silly to bet against Oppenheimer here, but The Zone of Interest is a well respected and admired movie whose sound design is arguably its most talked about and admired element. It would be a highly atypical choice, but plenty of braver people than I am predicting it. I'm gonna end up not predicting it, but part of me wishes I would
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Could Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Have Been Here: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Original Song
"The Fire Inside"-Flamin' Hot
"I'm Just Ken"-Barbie
"It Never Went Away"-American Symphony
"What Was I Made For"-Barbie
"Whazhazhe"-Killers of the Flower Moon
Probably the only place where Barbie is more or less guaranteed an Oscar win? "What Was I Made For" probably has the edge here, spurred on by Billie Eilish's popularity (...also I kind of wonder if this will be the Academy's reaction to all the Barbie nomination backlash? Like, not to do anything about it but make sure that the song about Barbie wins instead of the song about Ken). Still, there is one bonkers but surprisingly plausible alternative. "It Never Went Away" and "The Fire Inside" are totally inconceivable as winners, which means that all non-Barbie voters might be voting for "Whazhazhe." That song has the additional perk of the 'honor the late Robbie Robertson' sentiment that might appear in original score. Granted, Robertson had nothing to do with the song and wouldn't receive an Oscar for it, but I do wonder whether the average voter will interrogate that. Anyway, this is the big upset that I'm not brave enough to predict but do think could happen. Then again, will the Academy send Barbie home Oscar-less? Probably not.
Will Win: "What Was I Made For"-Barbie
Could Win: "I'm Just Ken"-Barbie
Should Win: "What Was I Made For"-Barbie*
Should Have Been Here: "Camp Isn't Home"-Theater Camp
*I haven't seen The Fire Inside or American Symphony, but like
Animated Film
The Boy and the Heron
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
I'm probably making this one more complicated than it needs to be--Spider-Man was a huge box office success, loved by critics, and part of one of the most popular mini-franchises going right now. So why does it feel like it's going to lose? Its reception didn't help--a very warm one, obviously, but one that got a little colder as the year progressed. If the Oscars had happened last June, Spider-Verse would have been up for picture, screenplay, and a handful of craft categories, but as the year progressed and people thought more about it, each of those possibilities fell away until only animated film was left, and even that looks tenuous. That said, is The Boy and the Heron, its direct competition, any less tenuous? Sure, it's Miyazaki's biggest hit ever in the US, it's well-reviewed, and he's all set to retire, which makes this the perfect time to give him one last Oscar. That said, when is Miyazaki not well reviewed? When is he not set to retire? The Academy has never seemed in that big a hurry to reward him (Spirited Away notwithstanding), and what would set them on that path for this, one of his stranger and more inscrutable movies? It's a toss-up. Both Spider-Verse and Boy and the Heron feel primed to fail, but none of the movies below them seem like they've even got a shot, so who's to say?
Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Could Win: The Boy and the Heron
Should Win: The Boy and the Heron*
Should Have Been Here: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
*I haven't seen Robot Dreams
International Film
Io Capitano-Italy
Perfect Days-Japan
The Teacher's Lounge-Germany
Society of the Snow-Spain
The Zone of Interest-The UK
Easiest call of the night. No movie nominated in both this category and best picture has ever lost, and The Zone of Interest has actual heat in other categories as well.
Will Win: The Zone of Interest-The UK
Could Win: Society of the Snow-Spain
Should Win: Abstain (I've only see The Zone of Interest and Society of the Snow)
Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
Year in and year out, this is the category I know the most about (and, unfortunately, struggle the most to care about). This year presents a real-ass apotheosis (and/or nadir) of my own apathy, as I haven't seen any of these nominees and feel particularly poorly qualified to work on them. Such as it is, 20 Days seems like the faraway frontrunner. I've heard whispers about Four Daughters but I kind of wonder if To Kill a Tiger would take that spot instead? Still, I'm not gonna pretend to be well-informed, so thank goodness there's an easy frontrunner for me to point at like I'm a pod person discovering someone.
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Could Win: Four Daughters
Should Win: abstain
And that's that! Currently, I've got Oppenheimer as the biggest winner with a paltry 8 wins--bizarre how that both feels like I'm under-predicting but would also make Oppenheimer one of the 20 most Oscar-winning films of all time. I don't think it'll break the all-time record, but 9 or 10 seems doable, which would certainly be close enough.
Well, whatever happens, I'll still be here next year, glancing morosely at all the toys that the Academy didn't want to play with, and throwing some patented stink-eye at the ones that they did.
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