While I would normally start with some long and florid introduction about the Oscars that tried to capture the spirit of the year, how the Academy perceived itself, how I felt about them, etc., this year I am going to have to forgo all that (much to the lamentation of all, I presume). As my last week has been singularly exhausting (having included such fun little activities including, but not limited to, driving a U-Haul across the country just yesterday), my day is full of non-Oscar things to do, and the ceremony starts in about nine hours, I find myself in the unenviable position of just trying to get these out by press-time at all. I've never failed to post Oscar predictions since 2005, and have often bragged that no force on Earth would stop me. Well, the majority of forces on Earth right now seem to be doing their best, but I am gonna persevere, albeit in a much more curtailed version than usual. So if you usually come here for the jokes and metaphors and wordy wind-ups, sorry! I will inflict double the normal amount of those on you next year, I promise. For now, I've got about thirty minutes to wrap up this whole process, and will have to hustle.
So here we go! I'm at a decade-low for having seen the nominees (I haven't seen nominees from a full ten categories, and haven't seen any from four of them--curse the shorts!), so I may be less informed than usual, but when has being informed ever helped me? I tend to predict more for fun than for accuracy. There are other websites out there crunching the numbers to help you win your Oscar pool; I'm here to light a little candle for Jacob Elordi and then kick some sand in the face of reason.
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
The overarching narrative of the whole evening--one that I will giddily reiterate for nine of the next eighteen categories--is Sinners vs. One Battle After Another, A Warner Brothers-dominated steel cage mage between two wildly ambitious, unique, and politically timely movies. These two will be trying to score hits on each other all night, and there probably won't be too many other movies that will be able to pull a win over them in any category. That's doubly true here--it'd be almost unthinkable to see any other nominee win this category. But which one takes it? One Battle has the Critics Choice award, the Directors Guild award, the Producers Guild award, and the British Acadamy award--and no movie that's ever won all those has ever lost the Oscar. ...That said, Sinners has the Screen Actors Guild ensemble award, the Writers Guild award, and the American Cinema Editors award--and no movie that's won all of those has ever lost the Oscar, either. So either way, one historic streak is about to be broken. Sinners did just set the record for the most nominated film of all time, but Oscar has a funny habit this century of not giving the big prize to its most nominated movie. And One Battle swept all the early awards and seems to have a full head of steam coming into the final night. That said, Sinners has won the most recent awards and feels like the movie that's on the tip of everyone's tongue right now.
In other words? It's a toss-up. There's no historical precedent for a stoner-action-satire-political thriller and a vampire-musical-historical drama becoming dualing Oscar juggernauts, so flip a coin, or go with your heart.
Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
Should Have Been Here: Weapons
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler-Sinners
Josh Safdie-Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier-Sentimental Value
Chloe Zhao-Hamnet
You can mostly copy-paste the argument from best picture to this category as well, with the caveat that Anderson/One Battle has mostly swept the precursor awards. He's got the momentum and he's a hugely loved and respected director who's never been recognized with an Oscar. As such, he's the frontrunner, but don't discount Ryan Coogler if Sinners goes for a sweep.
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Could Win: Ryan Coogler-Sinners
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
Should Have Been Here: Danny Boyle-28 Years Later
Actress
Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson-Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve-Sentimental Value
Emma Stone-Bugonia
Jessie Buckley wins in an avalanche in the easiest category of the night. Everyone arguing for Rose Byrne's critical wins or Kate Hudson's late-blooming sentimental narrative are silly and should feel silly,
Will Win: Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
Could Win: Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Should Win: Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I'd Kick You*
Should Have Been Here-Zhao Tao-Caught by the Tides
*I haven't seen Song Sung Blue
Actor
Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme
Leonardo Dicaprio-One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
Ethan Hawke-Blue Moon
Wagner Moura-The Secret Agent
From the easiest race to call to the most difficult--hard to remember another above-the-line Oscar category in my lifetime where literally anyone could win. And I've seen everyone of these men predicted as a winner! So we'll just go alphabetically. Chalamet: he was the frontrunner for the longest time, but all the wind has gone out of Marty Supreme's awards sails, and he's still awfully young to win (at 30, he'd be the second youngest winner in this category ever). Plus, he's kind of come across as a dick lately (sorry Timmy, I love you but it's true). It's difficult to pull off an (almost) unprecedented Oscar win when people don't want to love you. That said, he does have a ton of momentum and this is the only place to award a well-liked best picture nominee with nine nods to its name. Dicaprio: arguably the least likely, but who knows? People love and respect him, and One Battle could be a huge sweeper. Jordan: this felt impossible only a month ago, but Jordan's Screen Actors Guild win shows a big momentum shift. Plus, he's coming across as the anti-Chalamet, seeming very humble and down to earth on the campaign trail. He's the kind of actor other actors love to see succeed, and Sinners could become a sweeper as well. Hawke: it hurts him that Blue Moon is the only non-best picture nominee in the field (it's becoming increasingly difficult for movies not nominated for best picture to win an Oscar in any category), but he's also a beloved character actor who's never gotten his due. He could be a shocking (or not so shocking) dark horse. And finally, Moura: as I said in my predictions post, people can be absolutely feral for Brazilian cinema, and Moura is one of its most famous figures. The Secret Agent is really highly regarded, too. Am I brave enough to pick Moura above Chalamet and Jordan? I'll find out in about five seconds!
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan-Sinners (it turns out that I'm not)
Could Win: Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme
Should Win: Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
Should Have Been Here: Abou Sangaré-Souleymane's Story
Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning-Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas-Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan-Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku-Sinners
Teyana Taylor-One Battle After Another
You can easily rule out both the Sentimental Value ladies, lovely as their performances are--they won't be triumphing here tonight. The other three have about an equal chance between them. Madigan is the lone nomination for her film, and what's more, it's a horror performance in a straight horror movie, which almost never win. That said, she won the most recent televised award (SAG), has a ton of love behind her, and has the additional narrative of having the third longest wait between her first and second nominations (39 years!). Mosaku doesn't have any big Oscar clips, but she did win the second most recent televised award (British Academy), has the biggest role for a woman in a movie largely dominated by men, and could easily benefit from a Sinners sweep (Swinners?). That said, Taylor could do the same with a One Battle sweep and leaves a huge impression on the audience--but her screen time is limited to the first half-hour of an almost three-hour film. It's a real toss-up.
Will Win: Wunmi Mosaku-Sinners
Could Win: Amy Madigan-Weapons
Should Win: Amy Madigan-Weapons
Should Have Been Here: Nina Hoss-Hedda
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro-One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi-Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo-Sinners
Sean Penn-One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgard-Sentimental Value
Another exceptionally volatile category--and isn't it fun that almost all of the big categories are so wild this year? It's a real rarity, and I'm here for it. I think it's probably safe to rule out Benicio Del Toro, but I suppose you never know--he did win lots of early-season critics awards, after all. Conventional wisdom suggests this will go to Sean Penn, who won the two most recent awards (SAG and the British Academy), is a hugely memorable part of the best picture frontrunner, and plays a villain, which frequently wins in this category. That said, he hasn't been campaigning much and has been pretty vocal in his dislike of the Oscars and awards in general. Is that something that will actually work against him in real life, or just on the internet? Stellan Skarsgard was was the perceived frontrunner for the first half of this awards season, and could still easily prevail: he's a well-liked veteran actor getting his first nomination in his 70s for a popular and heavily-nominated film. That said, Delroy Lindo has that exact same argument, pretty much, and has been eating up a lot of the conversation in this category lately--and Sinners is much stronger than Sentimental Value as well. For some dopey reason though, I can't shake the dizzy notion that Jacob Elordi might win this. He did surprise at the Critics' Choice awards, and is pretty universally what people have praised most about Frankenstein. On the other hand, he is very young (28 years old) and pretty, and while Oscar loves picking women who are young and pretty, it kind of hates men who are young and pretty. Still, though--in a category this close, shocking wins often come out of nowhere. I don't think I'm brave enough to pick him, but if he does win, everyone please remember that I kind of called it here first.
Will Win: Jacob Elordi-Frankenstein (screw it, no guts, no glory, as the famous reanimated corpse once said before throwing a kid into a pond)
Could Win: Sean Penn-One Battle After Another
Should Win: Stellan Skarsgard-Sentimental Value
Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
It Was Just An Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Those tired of all the intrigue may take a second here to catch their breath. Sinners wins this, barring some huge shock, as voters will surely want to see Ryan Coogler go home with a win, even if he loses picture and director, and Sinners is nothing if not wildly original. I guess Sentimental Value could rally, but if I'm not predicting Skarsgard to win in a much easier category, I can hardly predict that here, can I?
Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: Sentimental Value
Should Win: Sinners
Should Have Been Here: On Becoming a Guinea Fowl
Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Another easy category. Similar to Ryan Coogler and Sinners, voters will want to see Paul Thomas Anderson with an Oscar in his hands, and this is the place to guarantee that it happens, whatever happens in the top categories.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Hamnet
Should Win: Bugonia
Should Have Been Here: Wake Up Dead Man
Should Have Been Here: Andrew Scott-Blue Moon
Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
For three of next four categories, the argument will be the same: can Frankenstein beat Sinners? And for three of the next four categories, the answer will also be the same: probably, yes! Sinners could sweep, but my money's on the respect for Frankenstein's lavish designs and visuals to win out
Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Marty Supreme
Should Have Been Here: No Other Choice
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Category two of three for Frankenstein vs. Sinners. How wild is that Avatar nomination here, huh? Having watched a bunch of videos in my post-nomination befuddlement, I at least get it now, even if I wouldn't have chosen it myself. Still, one of the wackier nominations of my Oscar-viewing life.
Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Frankenstein
Should Have Been Here: One of Them Days
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World: Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Most everyone will tell you that this category is cut and dry, and they're probably right: the Avatar series more or less exists at this point to make visual effects innovations, and each of the previous two has won this category. ...However. The Academy may be experiencing franchise fatigue. The first Avatar was nominated for nine Oscars, including picture and director, and won four, the second was nominated for four Oscars, including picture, and won one, and this one is only nominated for two. Will they feel like it's all too much the same? Secondly, it's actually incredibly rare for a movie nominated in best picture and this category to lose here to something not nominated for best picture--it's only happened twice in Academy history, and one of those times was a really wacky year. Which is to say that F1 and Sinners, statistically speaking, should be your winners. That said, they both feature supporting effects (i.e. things that blend into the background more than calling attention to themselves as big visual effects moments), which almost never win in this category. So you should probably choose Avatar if you're not feeling silly, but like I dunno, maybe silly is the right vibe here.
Will Win: F1 (man, I am gonna get destroyed in my Oscar competition this year, I am making all silly choices)
Could Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash*
Should Have Been Here: Predator: Badlands
*I haven't seen The Lost Bus
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Category three of Frankenstein vs. Sinners. How fun is it that--for once!--this branch has recognized horror in a big way! Three of the nominees this year are from the genre arguably most indebted to makeup work, but most commonly overlooked by the Academy.
Will Win: Frankenstein
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Frankenstein*
Should Have Been Here: Weapons
*maybe a dumb claim to make, as I've seen neither Kokuho nor The Smashing Machine
Film Editing
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
This category can go exactly three ways. If One Battle After Another wins, then things have gone as expected; this will help it on the road to best picture, but it's not guaranteed. If Sinners wins, expect a Sinners sweep. If F1 wins, accept that the Academy boys could once again not resist playing with their little cars.
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: F1
Should Win: One Battle After Another
Should Have Been Here: Final Destination: Bloodlines
Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Pure One Battle vs. Sinners here. It's tempting to say that whichever movie wins this wins best picture, but I'm not sure it's as simple as that. Sinners had the early momentum, One Battle has the current momentum, and it's anybody's guess who triumphs. Fingers crossed for Sinners: I don't know that it would actually be my #1 pick, but this category is the last category left that has yet to be won by a woman, and Sinners is the closest anyone has ever come to breaking that streak. Now watch Train Dreams come from behind and take it all!
Will Win: One Battle After Another
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: One Battle After Another (but I'm pulling for Sinners)
Should Have Been Here: Happyend
Original Score
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Clearly Sinners' battle to lose, right? Its music is both stellar and integral to the plot, and the Academy is desperately in love with Sinners composer Ludwig Göransson.
Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
Should Have Been Here: 28 Years Later
Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirat
A duel between F1 and Sinners. What wins out? A music-heavy film (which Oscar loves in this category) that's also got action and horror, or a movie about big fast cars (which Oscar loves in this category)? Sinners' pull in other categories might see it to a win here, but Oscar really loves car movies here.
Will Win: F1
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Sirat
Should Have Been Here: If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Original Song
"Dear Me"-Diane Warren: Relentless
"Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
"I Lied to You"-Sinners
"Sweet Dreams of Joy"-Viva Verdi
"Train Dreams"-Train Dreams
The chart-topping, Grammy-nominated earworm juggernaut probably takes this, but are we underestimating how much people love Sinners' music? And this song is the centerpiece of its most talked about moment. Still, hard to turn down all those K-Pop power chords.
Will Win: "Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: "I Lied to You"-Sinners
Should Win: "Golden"-KPop Demon Hunters
Should Have Been Here: "Pale Pale Moon"-Sinners
Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners
And how, do you ask, can we predict an award that's never been given before? We guess! We might assume that this just goes to the eventual best picture winner, but I think Sinners' huge ensemble of strong character actors will be enough to carry it across the finish line, even if it doesn't win best picture.
Will Win: Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Marty Supreme
Should Have Been Here: Weapons
Animated Film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie, or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Almost unimaginable for KPop Demon Hunters to lose here--it was a huge hit and a cultural phenomenon, and none of the other movies made much of a mark. The past couple years have seen the big mainstream favorite falling to a smaller indie darling, but I don't think any of the smaller movies have the juice to unseat Netflix here.
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could Win: Zootopia 2
Should Win: Little Amélie, or the Character of Rain*
Should Have Been Here: abstain (I haven't seen enough animated movies this year)
*I haven't seen Arco
International Film
It Was Just An Accident-France
The Secret Agent-Brazil
Sentimental Value-Norway
Sirat-Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab-Tunisia
I toyed with the idea of the bombing of Iran being enough to take Jafar Panahi's It Was Just an Accident to an unexpected win, but no movie that's ever been nominated for best picture has lost here (except to another best picture nominee), so this is between The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value. With nine nominations to The Secret Agent's four, Sentimental Value sure looks like the on-paper favorit,e but see above re: Brazilian cinema and passionate fans.
Will Win: Sentimental Value-Norway
Could Win: The Secret Agent-Brazil
Should Win: It Was Just an Accident-France*
Should Have Been Here: No Other Choice-South Korea
*I haven't seen The Voice of Hind Rajab
Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
I have spent way too long doing this and (embarrassingly) haven't seen any of these, so I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions. The Perfect Neighbor has the momentum, Mr. Nobody Against Putin is most topical, and my sister said Come See Me in the Good Light was really good, so there you are.
Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: I haven't seen any of these, because I am a garbage person
And that's that! I currently have Sinners and One Battle After Another dominating the night, winning half of the categories. I am also really doubling down on dumb choices (Frankenstein winning more Oscars than One Battle After Another? Seriously?), but I wouldn't have it any other way.
Well, whatever happens, it'll be fun to watch--and because I am so behind schedule, we'll get to watch it in a few hours! Until then, we can embrace the joy of not knowing.
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