Final Oscar Predictions 2024: Could Someone Please Politely Ask the Hounds We Released to Shave Timothée Chalamet's Mustache, And Other Important Tragedies

 

Why yes, I do make all of my pictures in microsoft powerpoint, why do you ask

If this Oscar year is anything, it might be the year of the impossible. Now, I'm not referring to seemingly impossible Oscar propositions like reuniting the cast of Mighty Ducks to sing "We Are the Champion" while Marguerite Moreau pirouettes on stage while the nation of Iceland sinks into the sea in the background (for budgetary reasons), or even the Academy inviting Shakira to sing an unintelligible medley of songs from all my favorite movie music moments of the early 2000s (ever wondered what Shakira would do with the song Cliff writes for Torrance in Bring it On immediately followed by her performing both sides of Moulin Rouge's "Elephant Love Medley?" Join my letter writing campaign!). No, the (unfortunately fun, if just as exciting) impossible proposition this year is that everything that might win an Oscar seems kind of preposterous. What wins best picture? Who knows, probably none of them! Will we all have to start saying two-time Oscar winner Adrien Brody or will Timothée Chalamet's horrible mustache crawl onto the stage like something fell of the Thing from The Thing? Which insipidly made short film with a powerful story behind it will win best live action short? 

In summary: who greenlit these Oscars? What were they thinking? Maybe this wild and scattered year is indicative of a Hollywood that doesn't itself know what it is anymore, or what it wants to greenlight, or maybe it's indicative of a largest ever Academy membership (over 10,000 members), all of whom are currently literally wrestling each other to determine the Academy's new identity (word on the street is that Harrison Ford and Lupita Nyong'o punching much over their metaphorical weight, but every person in France is banding together to stomp on every other member's toes). Maybe I'm just responding like this because I've had a largely off-consensus year and am struggling to muster too much enthusiasm for much of the assumed winners, but I can't help but wonder how we got such an amorphous and atraditional (or very traditional? hard to say) year, especially coming right on the heels of such determined and lockstep years that saw Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer vying to establish a New Brand (TM) for the Academy. And I can't help but wonder if this year's dubious flailing is a sign of something else.

But, as Shakespeare famously said: Ours is not to question why, our is but to offer some misguided predictions and die. And I am definitely going to do both of those things within the next three hours! And whatever the Oscars do, I'll always be there, staring melodramatically into the middle distance. The Oscars have been part of my life for actual decades now (and predicting them has been too--where has the time gone, other than to the curséd urn that the producers of Crash keep buried somewhere under the 405 in order to continue leeching our lives away from us), and it's hard to imagine a year that doesn't end (or begin) with them as a joyous summary and caesura. I do love it here, no matter how hard the Academy tries to convince us all that we shouldn't love it, and will continue to do so until either the Oscars or I are wrestled from our mortal coil and then have to go do the Oscars in hell where we belong (I think those are just the Razzies, but what do I know). 

So let's get to it! I've got the Challengers soundtrack blaring (again) (will I ever be free of these dance beats) and I'm excited to confront all the chaos face-on, if not necessarily make sense of it. Do remember that I tend to make predictions more for fun than for accuracy. There are plenty of websites out there willing to grind some statistics to help you win your Oscar pool, but I'll always use this space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds. As chance would have it, I've seen every nominee in every single category this year, including the shorts--only the third time I've managed that feat in my time as a haggard Oscar professional. So I'll be able to provide informed category in every category and then giddily toss that information into the sea--who wants to be informed when you can predict something silly?

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

I might be overestimating the potential calamities in store here, as Anora has won enough precursor wins and general momentum to carry it across the finish line here. But--just for fun--what if the polarizing movie about sex work from a previously unembraced director weren't an automatic win for the same film prize previously won by Driving Miss Daisy and Coda? Anora is the obvious answer, but it also feels impossible; then again, so does its nearest competition. Everyone on Earth other than awards voters, seemingly, hates Emilia Perez--it's controversial, it's poorly reviewed, it kind of stars a white supremacist. But it's the most nominated movie and continues to sweep up prizes across the world, so it has to be considered. The Brutalist seems like a traditional choice--until that second half happens, anyway. It's big, it's bold, it's respected, but its polarizing second half makes it feel impossible too. Conclave is another easy traditional pick, and a movie that's hard to dislike, but where has its momentum been? It stumbled pretty significantly with the nominations and is relying on a BAFTA win to fill its sails--it feels both highly likely and totally inert. I've been tempted to call for a CODA-esque shock victory for I'm Still Here, but surely we'd have felt some trace of that these past months? And don't get me started on Dune, Wicked, Nickel Boys, or The Substance--all strong movies with insurmountable hurdles. So if literally everything feels impossible, I guess the only (boring) solution is to pick the impossible movie with the most obvious argument.

Will Win: Anora
Could Win: Conclave
Should Win: Wicked
Should Have Been Here: Challengers

Director
Jacques Audiard-Emilia Perez
Sean Baker-Anora
Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat-The Substance
James Mangold-A Complete Unknown

Much simpler to narrow this down--either Baker or Corbet will walk away with the trophy. Baker's argument is probably more compelling: he's directing the best picture frontrunner, he won the DGA award which has gone to about 80% of past Oscar winners in this category in the last 20 years, and he's in the kind of place in his career where major recognition might feel due. That said, Brady Corbet's The Brutalist is arguably larger, flashier, and more difficult--the kind of movie that routinely wins this kind of prize, even if it can't gain traction much of anywhere else. It'd be silly to count Corbet out, even if Anora has the advantage. Otherwise, it's difficult to imagine anyone else in this category scraping together enough win equity to slide past the top two.

Will Win: Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Could Win: Sean Baker-Anora
Should Win: Coralie Fargeta-The Substance
Should Have Been Here: Luca Guadagnino-Challengers

Actress
Cynthia Erivo-Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon-Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison-Anora
Demi Moore-The Substance
Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here

One of the tightest categories of the year--a breathless three-way race that could fall in any direction. Mikey Madison might seem like a safe choice--she helms the best picture frontrunner, her character gets to do love, comedy, heartbreak, drugs, etc., aka the kinds of showy things that Oscar loves, and she's fairly early in her career and feels like a discovery, which is exactly where the Academy likes a person in this category to be. That said, the momentum is very much against her: after Demi Moore's moving and personal speech at the Golden Globes, Moore has won every single major film prize other than the BAFTA (which, to be fair, is one of the last prizes given and could suggest a late shift back to Madison...though, to be fair again, Moore won the SAG award, which was the very last prize given, so maybe it signifies nothing). All that said, consider Fernanda Torres. She wasn't considered a lock for a nomination, and probably wouldn't be in this conversation if it weren't for I'm Still Here getting a surprise best picture nomination. Suddenly, tons of people are watching her movie who wouldn't have previously, and plenty of them will probably be changing their vote in this category upon doing so, as her performance is something special--and it'll feel fresh, given most people will have seen that movie for the first time within the last six weeks. And on top of that, Torres wasn't nominated for any of the major awards that have been given in the past two months, which means that she's never had to directly compete with Madison and Moore. So, to recap: Madison could get through on early momentum and late-breaking momentum, Moore could take it with industry love and a robust precursor performance but might be hurt by performing in a horror movie (a genre that rarely succeeds at the Oscars), and Torres could sneak through by being the best and newest thing that everyone has seen recently. Madness! I wouldn't be surprised by any of those scenarios. 

Will Win: Demi Moore-The Substance
Could Win: Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here
Should Win: Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here (but I will be *thrilled* to see Demi Moore with that Oscar)
Should Have Been Here: Katy O'Brian-Love Lies Bleeding

Actor
Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes-Conclave
Sebastian Stan-The Apprentice

Extremely tight sprint to the finish between Brody and Chalamet here. What wins? Brody's got the early momentum, and has won most of the prizes, but The Brutalist is flagging in almost every category and people might question whether Brody is the kind of actor who should have two statues (not that this kind of number-crushing generally affects the Academy much). Chalamet's playing a real person (and it's actually surprisingly uncommon for the acting Oscars to go entirely to people playing original characters), he sings, and he sportscasts (not in the movie) (I think), but he's also very young to win here. If he won, he'd become the youngest person to ever win this category. (And fun fact: the current holder of that title is Adrien Brody, who won his first Oscar 22 years ago for The Pianist). It's a toss-up: veteran actor with an emotional performance in a struggling best picture nominee vs. a historically young opponent playing a real person in a late-breaking best picture nominee. Flip a coin and pray this doesn't all go to Timmy's head.

Will Win: Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Could Win: Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Should Win: Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Should Have Been Here: Sebastian Stan-A Different Man

Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro-A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande-Wicked
Felicity Jones-The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini-Conclave
Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez

After all the intrigue of the lead categories, the supporting categories are going to give us a much-needed break. Despite Emilia Perez's constant controversies, this category is one that it has consistently won, and it's tough to think of a narrative compelling enough to dethrone Saldaña's 'I have been covered in paint and pixels for fifteen years and am ready for someone to actually goddamn see me' storyline. People loved Grande's Glinda and were impressed that she could actually act, but her win potential gets undermined by the fact that Wicked 2 will come out this year--but watch for her next year. It'd be neat to see Rossellini's respect in the industry and veteran status come through for a win here, but it's more or less inconceivable to imagine that happening for a performance that is largely wordless and only seven minutes long--especially when her biggest competition is in almost every scene of a 150-minute movie.

Will Win: Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez
Could Win: Ariana Grande-Wicked
Should Win: Ariana Grande-Wicked
Should Have Been Here: Anna Baryshnikov-Love Lies Bleeding

Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov-Anora
Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce-The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong-The Apprentice

Here's one of the easiest categories this year: Culkin's every major prize this year and is still riding high on Succession love, as well as providing an easy place for Real Pain fans to congregate after the movie stumbled at the nominations. No one else in this category has the acclaim, the narrative, or the momentum--he's in for sure.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Could Win: Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Should Have Been Here: Clarence Maclin-Sing Sing

Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Substance
September 5

Am I making this more complicated than it needs to be? Like, Anora's has the most best picture steam in this category, it's got a memorable premise, and feels 'writerly' in its improvised-ish feel. So why am I questioning my pick here? If The Brutalist isn't as dead in the water as people think, it could show here. The Real Pain fans that I just mentioned could easily congregate here to reward Jesse Eisenberg for writing, directing, producing, and acting in the movie, and it's got the snappy dialogue and freestanding monologues that the Academy loves to reward here. Even The Substance, with a premise that no one is going to actively forget, could triumph here--hell, it won the screenplay award at Cannes and is clearly getting votes in other categories, so why not here? In short, this category is probably easy, but I am wringing my hands over it like someone who just got their hands stuck in a wringer.

Will Win: Anora
Could Win: A Real Pain
Should Win: A Real Pain
Should Have Been Here: Challengers

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing

Much less hand-wringing here (which is good, because the owner of the previous wringer is very upset with me and all the fingers I left behind). Conclave's the only one of this group that's got any best picture stream and isn't also a widely derided musical (only one musical has ever won a screenplay Oscar, which suggests that being widely derided is enough to count a certain cartel leader/beneficent saint out of the running). 

Will Win: Conclave
Could Win: Nickel Boys
Should Win: Nickel Boys
Should Have Been Here: Laapataa Ladies

Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked

Oh look, it's another category that I'm over-complicating! Wicked is the obvious frontrunner, but I can't help but pay attention to all the juicy narratives floating around it. The first Dune won six Oscars--is it ridiculous to assume its fans will show up to these Oscars again, at least in some capacity? Nosferatu surely has to be considered a stealth contender in every category it's in: people love it, they love the look of it, and are surely feral at the thought of rewarding all those monochrome settings. And The Brutalist is a big prestige pic (arguably prestige-r than Wicked) whose plot relies on--and calls attention to--the film's design. Surely one of those is capable of muscling past Wicked's big, pretty sets, especially since Wicked's Oscar hopes have collapsed in almost every other category.

Will Win: The Brutalist
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: The Brutalist
Should Have Been Here: Twilight of the Warriors: Walled In

Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked

At last, a chance for me to catch my breath. It's groovy to have a year in which so many categories are up in the air (or at least vaguely competitive, which is more than we can say for most years), but it's way more effort to wrack my brain over the possible scenarios than it is to point at something and shriek a little. So here I am, pointing and shrieking at Wicked in the one category that it can't possibly lose.

Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: Nosferatu
Should Win: Nosferatu
Should Have Been Here: Laapataa Ladies

Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

Oh look, another category primed to be shrieked at! It's possible that a legion of Wicked fans frog-marches into categories like these and nabs the statues from other, more plausible victors, but I'm just going to assume that the Academy, like me, is super enthused by all the worm stuff and will just check Dune's name and move on.

Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Have Been Here: I Saw the TV Glow

Makeup
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

Very similar to the previous category, in that the theoretical Wicked legions are the biggest obstacle to the presumptive frontrunner's success. In this case, that's The Substance, which has a slightly more uphill battle than Dune's in the previous category: this award has very rarely gone to horror, body horror, gore, etc., which might be enough for Wicked's more family-friendly fare (or Nosferatu's rotten prosthetic penis, I guess?) to triumph. Still, I have to imagine that if it's gotten this far, The Substance is winning--who isn't talking about that movie's makeup as they walk out the door and directly to their therapist's office?

Will Win: The Substance
Could Win: Wicked
Should Win: The Substance
Should Have Been Here: Alien: Romulus

Film Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked

Kind of a bizarre category this year in that none of the potential arguments really rely on the movies themselves. Film Editing's always been pretty tied to the best picture category, but has gotten egregiously so in the past ten years; I don't know that anyone would argue that the above movies are the actual best representations of quality editing this year, but they certainly were the top five best picture hopefuls around when the nominations came out. So it feels like you can just order this category as you did best picture, and you'll have the same amount of success in both categories. That said, Conclave arguably has the most artistry (or attempt at that) of the nominees, so it might win just by virtue of being structured like a thriller. In short: whichever movie wins this Oscar will probably win best picture, unless it's Conclave, in which case nothing means anything and we should all go home.

Will Win: Anora
Could Win: Conclave
Should Win: Conclave
Should Have Been Here: Challengers

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Maria
Nosferatu

Another refreshingly competitive category--isn't this fun, after two years of juggernaut best picture winners and mini-juggernauts next to them? The Brutalist feels like the default frontrunner for all the same reasons that it's competitive in best picture: it's big, it's bold, it's flashy, it flips the statue of liberty on its head and then makes you consider Adrien Brody's pubes, etc. Still, it's not set in concrete: I still believe that Dune's previous fans might show up somewhere, and this seems as likely as anywhere else, especially with popular DP Greig Frasier at the wheel. Nosferatu has also been widely embraced, it's won a number of cinematography prizes, and offers a painterly alternative to The Brutalist's more lived in landscapes. Heck, even Maria picked up a major prize. And maybe we've got an impending Emilia Perez sweep, followed shortly thereafter by the sun being blotted out by 10,000 flying scorpions! Anything is possible!

Will Win: Nosferatu
Could Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Nosferatu
Should Have Been Here: All We Imagine as Light

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Oh look, it's my favorite category--ones with obvious frontrunners that I have nevertheless convinced myself are impossible to predict! Why do I do this to myself! The Brutalist is the obvious answer--the score is bold, memorable, and love for this movie will have to manifest somewhere. However. Despite how much we all hate Emilia Perez, it is the most nominated movie, one that has won tons of other prizes, and is a wholly original musical...that is nominated in a music category. Surely that has to be an option. And on that front, what stops Wicked from piggybacking on the same argument? Are we really assuming that the average voter can tell the composition that were written for the stage show from the ones that were written for the movie--doesn't its presence in this category suggest that they can't? And if so, why wouldn't it win the 'sure, it's a musical, give it to that, it's got music right there in the title' award? And Conclave and The Wild Robot have both received plenty of love for their music and for plenty of other things besides. So call The Brutalist the frontrunner if you want (...if only because it clearly is), but I feel like this category's ripe for anarchy.

Will Win: Wicked
Could Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: Conclave
Should Have Been Here: Challengers

Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Dune is definitely bolstered by the fact that its three main competitors are so similar: three best picture hopefuls that are musicals or music-related. As such, it's easy to assume that those three movies split the votes and allow Dune to sail through.

Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Could Win: A Complete Unknown
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Have Been Here: The Substance

Original Song
"The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
"Like a Bird"-Sing Sing
"Mi Camino"-Emilia Perez
"El Mal"-Emilia Perez
"Never Too Late"-Elton John: Never Too Late

As we gaze into this, surely one of the deepest and darkest abysses to ever open up beneath this category's feet, we have to ask ourselves one question: what can I, a citizen, do to stop Emilia Perez's inevitable march to a win here? Unfortunately, not too much. Look, I want to see an Oscar in the hands of Diane Warren, She Who Blacks Out the Sky With Her Hands And Plucks The Stars From The Night In Order To Write Little Ballads About Them, Consort of Moloch and Mother Of Tiny Golden Dragons, as much as the next person, but I just don't know if she's getting there for a forgettable song in a movie no one saw. And it's true that Elton John has only ever lost an Oscar to himself, but that stat sounds more impressive if you don't know he's only been nominated in two separate years. Still, we can dream.

Will Win: "El Mal"-Emilia Perez
Could Win: "The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
Should Win: "The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
Should Have Been Here: "Starburned and Unkissed"-I Saw the TV Glow

Animated Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

Finally, a rest for my poor reeling mind: The Wild Robot wins this in a nonchalant mosey into the woods.

Will Win: The Wild Robot
Could Win: Flow
Should Win: Flow
Should Have Been Here: The Missing

International Film
Emilia Perez-France
Flow-Latvia
The Girl with the Needle-Denmark
I'm Still Here-Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig-Germany

Your pick in this category depends on how much you believe in Emilia Perez's fall from grace. Are Academy voters sick of the controversy? Did the backlash finally take hold? If so, go for I'm Still Here. Do we believe in the Perez backlash primarily because we hate it and not because it's been reflected by the voters or by the industry? Go for Emilia Perez. Either way, no movie that's ever been nominated for both best picture and this category has ever lost in this category, so it's got to be one of the two.

Will Win: Emilia Perez
Could Win: I'm Still Here
Should Win: Flow
Should Have Been Here: Kneecap

Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane

The main--unpleasant--question to ask here is to what extent the Academy supports the genocide in Palestine. The reaction to Johnathan Glazer's acceptance speech last year, wherein he decried Israel's actions, certainly suggest that there are plenty of people in the Academy who aren't looking to reward a Palestinian documentary about Israeli incursions onto Palestinian land. That doc (No Other Land) is certainly the frontrunner, but we have to at least consider realities in which the Academy looks elsewhere for political reasons. If so, Porcelain War is the easy answer--a doc about the Ukrainian war won last year, and Ukraine could be a, uh, welcome refuge from controversy. I could see Black Box Diaries also benefitting from people looking for a place to land: it's emotionally resonant and sticks out from the others (it's the only one of the nominees not at least tangentially about genocide). I think No Other Land will carry the day--no other doc is as buzzy and relevant this year--but who knows? Stranger things have happened than a powerful institution deciding it wasn't interested in what was happening.

Will Win: No Other Land
Could Win: Porcelain War
Should Win: No Other Land
Should Have Been Here: Dahomey

And that's that! Currently, I don't have any movie being particularly dominant, with Anora and The Brutalist each taking three wins. I have to admit that I'm not feeling confident about a number of my calls this year--am I being riskier, are things tougher to predict, or am I just an idiot? (It's probably all three, so like don't base your Oscar pools on what I'm picking, because I am gonna get buried this year.)

Well, whatever happens, and we all get to enjoy watching it happen in slow motion. But we can embrace whatever happens as well as embracing the joy that comes with not knowing--just imagine all of us coming back here in three days to try and re-live the halcyon days in which we didn't know Emilia Perez would go on an unprecedented winning streak. 

Oscar Predictions 2024: Who Wants to Watch Emilia Perez (maroon several polar bears)?

I do, but I can't stop laughing at this.

 

So things are, as it turns out, a bit of a mess.

I don't know if it's because it actually happens, or because I'm good at projecting my own thoughts and experiences onto the world around me, or if because my penchant for grandiose bullshittery leads me to broken clocks that are right at least once a year, but every year it seems like the narrative of the Oscars maps uncannily onto the narrative of the world writ large as well as (writ somewhat less large) onto my life. It's a bizarre balancing act of reading the tea leaves and quietly pushing the tea leaves into the pattern you want and then also sometimes there's a Godzilla nearby (not this year, necessarily, but we do have some horny bisexual tennis pros waiting in the wings, and that's not nothing).

So what is that narrative? Last year I (kind of justly) celebrated the return of capital-C Cinema after the pandemic, things returning to some kind of normal at the box office while the Academy broadened its reach for what it considered the 'best' of the year--even though the results of that broadened love limited the chances of movies not nominated for best picture to be nominated in other categories. And all of that was true and right at the time, but why don't we, uh, go ahead and look around and see how much we see that feels triumphant and right. (Did you see look around and see Colman Domingo winning an Oscar? I didn't.) This year--in every possible scale and sense--is a bit of a mess. Where last year we had ten consensus movies marching to the finale with one obvious winner joyously riding its atomic bomb right into the Oscar-clad ground. This year we have one of the stranger Oscar bunches in recent history, in that none of them seem plausible as nominees, much less winners. An explicit tragicomedy about a sex worker from a director who's always been shunned by the Academy? Yes! A nearly four hour long epic about architecture that goes places you definitely did not see coming, directed by someone who has never made a movie that grossed more than $1 million until now? Yes! A body horror Movie in which an industrial amount of fake blood is squirted out a disembodied limb like a firehose? Yes! That movie from France about Mexico that you probably only know because of the "penis to vaginaaaa" clip that went around twitter and tiktok, the one that everyone except awards voters seem to hate? Yes Yes Yes Yes! And that's not even mentioning Wicked, which, in the weirdest twist of the year, actually turned out good--and look at what we had to do to the timeline to create a reality in which that makes sense.

Point is, things are gonna be goofy, if nothing else. This will be a year where the peppy young Oscar scholars of the future will stare at the winners with a mixture of fear and awe (you know, kind of like how 2005 saw a four-way tie for most Oscar wins of the year between Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha, and King Kong, and then the other Oscars went to Rachel Weisz, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," and a Narnia movie). So everyone hold onto their respective butts (or the butts of a nearby loved one), because the next month and a half is gonna be silly.

Oscar nominations come out tomorrow morning, by which point I will be far, far away from here (wherein 'here' probably means 'any plane of reality in which Challengers gets the recognition it deserves,' unfortunately), and all of this will be meaningless, but that doesn't mean that I'm not gonna burn all of our time by writing a few thousands words about what might happen between now and then. Every year around Oscar nominations, my molecules slight vibrating at a slightly different frequency from the rest of the galaxy, and the ramifications of that are a) I have a wonderful time doing this, and b) that I predict a bunch of implausible surprises that certainly won't happen, but wouldn't it be fun if they did? So bear that in mind as you follow along--there are plenty of websites that are predicting for accuracy, but I tend to stray into predicting as a way of attempting to cosmos along its rightful path. (God, writing this to The Brutalist soundtrack is making the tone of this so weird.) And that cosmos ain't gonna right itself (clearly), so now I'm just gonna have to go predict an alternate timeline in which Kneecap gets to perform at the Oscars--and I couldn't be happier. So let's get to it!

(Note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood, so the first movie listed is most likely, the second is next most likely, etc.) 

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Sing Sing
Nosferatu
Alternate: A Real Pain

Screw it, I have a proud tradition of making nine level-headed predictions in this category and then opting for anarchy. It's ridiculous of me not to pick A Real Pain or Nickel Boys for that tenth spot, but Nosferatu peaked at the right time, it's done great with awards organizations, and was a big and unexpected box office success. Plus, it's looking to get four to six other nominations, and in this era of the Academy, it makes more sense to just shuffle it into best picture instead of assuming it can hit those numbers without a nomination here. Beyond that tenth spot, I'm confident on just about everything else, though Sing Sing has been looking weak recently. Look for the aforementioned Real Pain/Nickel Boys to sneak in if so, or possibly something wild like Challengers, September 5, or All We Imagine as Light. (I kept wanting to predict Juror No. 2 as the first one-nomination best picture nominee in decades but I just wasn't strong enough. Still, if that happens, let's all pretend that I did.)

Director
Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
Sean Baker-Anora
Edward Berger-Conclave
Jacques Audiard-Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat-The Substance
Alternate: RaMell Ross-Nickel Boys

Looking to be a grim category for me with both Jacques Audiard sneaking in for his own brand of dull madness as well as my nemesis, Edward Berger (look, I like Conclave as much as the next person, but you need to do a lot more than one fun pope movie before crawling out of the hole that making All Quiet on the Western Front dug you). This feels like a category with exactly one line of wiggle room, which I'm granting Fargeat for her anything but dull madness in The Substance. I know picking Payal Kapadia/All We Imagine as Light is the hip choice, and there's an argument to be made for her taking the cool new international slot that's seemed all but guaranteed for the past few years, but I'd counterargue that Audiard and Fargeat are already camping on that spot. Look for James Mangold and Jon M. Chu if A Complete Unknown and Wicked do better than expected, but I'm not convinced. Also, am I an idiot for not mentioning Denis Villeneuve and Dune til the end? Probably.

Actress
Mikey Madison-Anora
Demi Moore-The Substance
Karla Sofia Gascon-Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo-Wicked
Fernanda Torres-I'm Still Here
Alternate: Marianne Jean-Baptiste-Hard Truths

Sticking with the consensus here, even though I strongly considered something plausibly surprising (like Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl or Nicole Kidman in Babygirl) or implausibly surprising (like Lily-Rose Depp in Nosferatu). But I'm Still Here has been gaining steam, and it'd be unproductively silly to pretend like I can't see that for the sake of being able to say Academy Award Nominee Pamela Anderson for about 18 hours.

Actor
Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes-Conclave
Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
Sebastian Stan-The Apprentice
Alternate: Daniel Craig-Queer

Look, this is probably the easiest category for us to get right--just swap Daniel Craig in there and you're golden. But I'm going for the riskier call that Queer is a little too gay and strange for the Academy, that Sebastian Stan's stellar year as a serious actor debutante will warrant some reward, and that Jeremy Strong's recent awards success for the same movie will have people considering Stan too. I'd love to see Hugh Grant get in here for Heretic--maybe more than I want to see any other acting nomination, just for the novelty alone--but I know a pipe dream that wants to invite me into its creepy religion basement when I see one.

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldaña-Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande-Wicked
Isabella Rossellini-Conclave
Jamie Lee Curtis-The Last Showgirl
Adriana Paz-Emilia Perez
Alternate: Danielle Deadwyler-The Piano Lesson

Doing something deeply stupid here. Everyone's talking about Emilia Perez getting dual supporting noms, and why not (other than the obvious)? But while everyone's looking at Selena Gomez, who's been taking heat for her performance, her Spanish, and the fact of her existence, I guess, I'm looking at Adriana Paz, who is wonderful and unsung. It probably won't happen, but it just might, so here we are. Hate leaving Deadwyler in sixth place for another year, but that's looking like her face. This is a weirdly volatile category, though--anyone beyond the first two slots is vulnerable. Look for Margaret Qualley/The Substance, Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown, and Felicity Jones/The Brutalist to make an appearance if their films surge, or Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor/Nickel Boys or Joan Chen/Didi for a surprise.

Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
Guy Pearce-The Brutalist
Yura Borisov-Anora
Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
Denzel Washington-Gladiator II
Alternate: Clarence Maclin-Sing Sing

Once again, a category with exactly one spot open and an absolute mud-wrestle to fill it. While I had sweet and calming dreams about Ridley Scott weeping on Oscar morning, throwing his little toys into the toilet while lamenting Gladiator II's complete and glorious Oscar snub, I can't deny that Denzel is one of the biggest living awards magnets; I think he resurrects his early season momentum and slides in. Maclin would be great to see, and could happen, but it's up in the air. Look for Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice as a likely challenger (is it dumb that I'm predicting Sebastian Stan getting in without Jeremy Strong? Probably). And not that I'm saying this *should* happen, but wouldn't it be a nice little treat for all of us if the Academy saw fit to honor Jonathan Bailey for being everyone's hot little dancing friend in Wicked?

Original Screenplay
Anora
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
The Substance
Civil War
Alternate: Challengers

Look, I have been sitting on a shocking Saturday Night screenplay nomination for months now, and it doesn't please me to lose my nerve any more than the prospect of watching Civil War pleases me. But I've decided to let go of one patented silly prediction in favor of another one. And realistically, no one knows who's going to get that fourth slot. Is it Challengers? Fun, but unlikely. Is it Hard Truths? Tiny, and not particularly well loved. All We Imagine as Light or The Seed of the Sacred Fig? Why haven't they been a bigger presence on the awards circuit thus far? September 5? I'm not even sure this movie exists--I've never seen anything about it in the real world apart from on Oscar blogs. Everyone's going to be throwing a dart in this category, and I'm throwing mine, with force and gusto, at Alex Garland.

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Sing Sing
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
Nickel Boys
Alternate: Nosferatu

Feels like one of the most ironclad categories--does anything have the juice to break in here? Wicked or Dune or I'm Still Here if they're strong enough, but I'm not convinced they are. This feels like the final five; now watch me assert this with confidence and get it entirely wrong tomorrow.

Production Design
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Conclave
Alternate: A Complete Unknown

Kills me not to have A Complete Unknown in here, which feels like an obvious choice that we'll all be kicking ourselves about tomorrow, but I just couldn't make sense out of demoting any of the other five. Feels like another fairly congealed category? Gladiator, The Substance, or maybe something out of left field like Blitz or Furiosa as surprises, but the top five feels like the right five.

Costume Design
Wicked
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
The Substance
The Book of Clarence
Alternate: Conclave

Feels ridiculous not to have Gladiator II and Conclave in here, both almost certainly destined for a nomination, but sometimes I just want to kick a jar of gumballs onto a roller skating rink and enjoy a little anarchy. The Substance feels like the kind of sneaky-obvious pick for this category that everyone pretends they saw coming after the fact (the yellow jacket! that cinderella gown!), and The Book of Clarence is a dumb hunch that I've had ever since seeing the trailer a year ago, and I, like all fans of 1996's biggest animated hit, love my dumb hunches. 

Visual Effects
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Better Man
Alien: Romulus
Alternate: Gladiator II

And while we're on the subject of following your silly gut feelings until they lead you into a dark well within which a wise goblin sage who refuses to tell you anything lives, why not add Alien here? It's had a stronger precursor showing in multiple categories than expected. I know that I shouldn't be blanking Gladiator in (almost) every category, but the thing about that is that I want to, and none of Ridley Scott's hired goons will arrive here to break my fingers before morning, and by then it'll be too late.

Makeup
Wicked
Nosferatu
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Alternate: Emilia Perez

Toyed with the idea of a surprise snub for both Dune and The Substance, but couldn't write myself a compelling enough argument for any of the other potential nominees. This category feels like a significant bellwether for Emilia Perez fans (or haters)--getting in here probably means that it's going to have a huge morning. I'd love to see the Sebastian Stan double feature The Apprentice and A Different Man get in--partly because they're worthy, but maybe more so because then the Oscar telecast would very briefly become a masterclass on gluing things to Sebastian Stan's face.

Film Editing
Dune: Part Two
Anora
Conclave
The Brutalist
Challengers
Alternate: Emilia Perez

Sticking my lonely flag into the tennis court to stand up for Challengers. Probably silly to think it makes it into this category that has been so dominated by best picture nominees (and winners) in recent years, but if Josh O'Connor can work up the courage to slap Mike Faist's turgid wiener, then so can I (metaphorically speaking). Otherwise, treat this category like you'd treat best picture: pick Perez, Wicked, The Substance, or A Complete Unknown if you're expecting them to surge.

Cinematography
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
Conclave
The Girl with the Needle
Alternate: Nickel Boys

Feels wrong not to have Nickel Boys--or A Complete Unknown, but for very different reasons--but when has this category ever been able to turn down a black and white movie? Hence Girl with the Needle sneaking into my predictions and then lying there like an ungainly doorstop, grumpily barring other, larger contenders from entering. I know I just said that Makeup would be a big category for Emilia Perez, but if it gets into this one (heaven forbid), then it could honestly break the record for the most nominations of all time. God, just wash that sentence around in your mouth a bit and try to swallow it. 

Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
The Wild Robot
Challengers
Alternate: Nosferatu

Every time I type 'Emilia Perez,' twelve weeping polar bears get set adrift in a dark and uncaring sea, never to return to land. And I am far from done typing that, so those polar bears are gonna have to buckle up. This category feels simultaneously totally set and strangely volatile. It's hard to imagine any of the top five missing, but then again, it's hard to imagine Nosferatu, Blitz, The Room Next Door and Wicked missing, so there you go. I'll either go 5/5 in this category or 2/5--madness!

Sound
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
A Complete Unknown
Gladiator II
Emilia Perez
Alternate: Blitz

And there go another twelve polar bears! Atypical to have such a musical-heavy category (three out of five of the movies are musicals or music-related), even in a category that's notoriously fond of a tune or two. I was tempted to toss Alien: Romulus in here as well, just to try and curry favor with my local xenomorph (or maybe to see if I could get that xenomorph to eat a few of the other nominees), but decided against it (bribing a xenomorph is wrong). I swear, if the Academy goes and nominates the Joker sequel in this category I am going to march right to Hollywood and start throwing bricks through every window I see.

Original Song
"El Mal"-Emilia Perez
"The Journey"-The Six Triple Eight
"Mi Camino"-Emilia Perez
"Never Too Late"-Elton John: Never Too Late
"Sick in the Head"-Kneecap
Alternate: "Kiss the Sky"-The Wild Robot

That's right, I am eschewing the frontrunner hits from The Wild Robot, Challengers, Will and Harper, and Piece by Piece in favor of a song by that band that is perhaps most famous for doing a shit-ton of cocaine on stage. Everyone wins! God, I want a Kneecap performance at the Oscars so bad. I will make a dark deal with whatever eldritch entity Diane Warren has shackled, I will give that entity whatever it takes to get Kneecap throwing drugs out into the audience onto a deeply confused (but grateful) John Williams. Please universe/Diane Warren's shadow demon, please make this happen. And speaking of Diane Warren's unholy union with the darkness, everything looks good for her song, "The Journey"--the blood pact will be renewed, the old flesh shall die, long live the new flesh, tremble before the creeping darkness! Seriously though, who will stop Diane Warren.
(I realize that, without context, this paragraph is deeply unhinged. But I assure that, with context, it is somber and horrifying.)

Animated Film
The Wild Robot
Flow
Inside Out 2
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Memoir of a Snail
Alternate: Moana 2

Very little intrigue here--these five nominees have been up for almost every prize in sight for the last three months, with nary a stray vote to any other movie to spoil their fun. Moana 2's the likeliest spoiler, but no one particularly liked Moana 2 (except for millions upon millions of ticket buyers).

International Film
Emilia Perez-France
I'm Still Here-Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig-Germany
Kneecap-Ireland
Flow-Latvia
Alternate-The Girl with the Needle-Denmark

Thankfully, this is Emilia Perez's last probably nomination (he says, gazing toward the horizon at hundreds of weeping polar bears, marooned to a dismal fate on the high seas). The top three are locked in, and the final two are up to a cage match between the movies listed above and Italy's Vermiglio. That said, this category throws frequent curveballs: should I be on the lookout for Palestine's From Ground Zero? Canada's Universal Language? Thailand's How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies? I'd expect a surprise somewhere.

Documentary Feature
No Other Land
Sugarcane
Daughters
Black Box Diaries
Porcelain War
Alternate: Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

Year in and year out, this is the category I know the least about/struggle to care about the most. One of these years I'm gonna rectify that, but it certainly hasn't been this one, so behold! The darts I have thrown. Going with the traditional snub of the mainstream crowd-pleasing frontrunner (Will and Harper), but I do wonder if we shouldn't all be predicting a No Other Land snub as well. The movie's been controversial (due to, uh, being filmed in Palestine and all that that currently entails), and I could see politics keeping it out of the lineup, unfortunately. 

And there you have it! For those of you playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:

Emilia Perez-11
The Brutalist-9
Conclave-9
Dune: Part Two-8
Wicked-8

I have to admit that I don't feel exceptionally confident about a lot of these, but like I said at the beginning: it's a wacky year, so why not lean into the wackiness?

I know it's silly to spend this much time talking about potential Oscar nominations without talking about any of my own picks--and trust me, those are definitely the freight train at the end of the tunnel whose light you're seeing. I'm aiming for some time in mid-February, depending on what movies I can see/what happens in my life/whether or not I can fight off Ridley Scott's finger-breaking goons. But for now, I'll say that if I could guarantee any nominations, it would be for Challengers pretty much anywhere (but particularly in screenplay and score), though I would reeeeeaaally like to see a Hugh Grant/Heretic nomination. If I could prevent any nomination--well, I don't think it will come as a surprise to anyone that I do not count myself among Emilia Perez's biggest fans, so we'll skip those and say that Jamie Lee Curtis's upcoming Supporting Actress nomination is one that totally mystifies me, even as a lifelong fan.

And that's it! By this time tomorrow, all of these predictions will be meaningless, which is just the way I like it. I'm actually going to be away from my computer til Monday or Tuesday, so I won't be back tomorrow with my reactions (the shock! the horror! the madness!), but rest assured that I will return some time next week to unleash my particular flavor of Oscar silliness on the world.