Best of 2023, Part One: The Top 20

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Is it Kenough to say that if you're curious where I am, mentally and emotionally, you can catch me openly weeping at the ninja turtle movie?

Long-time readers and eagle-eyed fans will notice that I've been starting every one of these for a few years alluding to some kind of general malaise, either covid-caused or connected to life, the movies, and everything. And every year I hope and/or promise that this will be the year wherein that malaise will have been replaced with something big and new in my life. Well, dear reader, I regret to inform you that the ill-formed and hovering aforementioned malaise continues to malaise all over me, and I find myself largely in the same place as last year. Rejoice! 

That same stage of in-the-middle wobbliness that I can't quite seem to shake from the general scaffolding of my life has been compounded by what has probably been my most movie-isolated year since, like, middle school, maybe? Since the start of 2023, I (deep breath) 1) injured myself in a way that kept me from going to movie theaters for a couple months, 2) sold my car and moved to a little town two or more hours from a good theater--and one that frequently experiences the kind of weather that keeps you from traveling at all, 3) took a summer job at an even smaller and more remote location where going to the movies at all was entirely impossible, and 4) had computer issues for the past month or two that I haven't had the funds or wherewithal to resolve which have more or less kept me off the internet for longer than five minute bursts, which has made catching up on movies online frustrating at best and impossible at worst (heck, even writing and publishing this is gonna be a whole-ass effort).

And where does all that leave us? I can't speak to how my minor inconveniences have affected your life (gravely, I'm sure), but it leaves me with a pretty paltry 74 movies from the 2023 calendar year and a slightly less than standard level of enthusiasm for writing these annual text-and-movie-marathons (as evidenced by my leaving things to the last possible second before the Oscars). Probably also not a boon to my productivity or enthusiasm that I'm pretty off-consensus this year. I keep reading that 2023 produced a real bumper crop of stellar movies, one of the best Best Picture lineups in Academy history, etc. There's a lot of passion out there for 2023 releases. And I'm sure it doesn't help that I just didn't see very many, but I can't say I find myself in the same boat--hell, I am not sure if I can scrape together unmitigated passion for every movie in my top 20 (a number that is itself maybe silly to do when you've only seen 74 movies, but silliness is both my nature and my profession, and nothing will stop me).

So all of that is to say that I am gonna be re-embracing my streamlined format from last year. While last year I at least had the solid-enough excuse that typing was hard because my fingers weren't totally working yet (a choice quote from that intro: "it doesn't even hurt to do a thumbs up anymore!"), this year my (poor) excuse is that I'll streamline because I want to, and hope/promise/assume that next year will be a return to wild-eyed and glorious form. In practice, this means shorter blurbs and more pictures (which, honestly, is probably better for us all to begin with?). It also means that I'm going to just reproduce my letterboxd review for this list, if I have one and it says what I want it to say. This is a major bummer for all of you who spend time on letterboxd (and a still a minor bummer for all those who read and respect the English language), but I'll use it instead as my yearly advertisement to come join the rest of us monsters on letterboxd, aka the only good social media site left on the internet. It's just movies and pictures and bad jokes! And really, if you enjoy reading these posts (and god help you if you do, but you may be lurking out there), then know that you could read me doing this sort of thing year-round and in a much more deranged way than on here. So find me here if that's the sort of thing that interests you!

So here's the deal: 74 movies seen (feel free to ask me what I have and haven't seen, if you're curious!), the 20 best movies of the year, the 5 worst ones, the 10 best scenes of the year, and a truly punishing number of words, bad jokes, feelings, and typos between now and the end. What's not to like? I'm excited--and I'm sure you're either excited or glancing nervously at your clock--so let's jump into it!

Honorable mentions: though they didn't make my top 20, I'm still grateful for the astounding visuals and energy of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, the museum-glass dreaminess of Priscilla, and wondrous stupidity of Theater Camp.

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20. Bottoms (dir. Emma Seligman)

I'll never get enough of movies that sprinkle little baffling details around the edges (like the out of focus caged football player in the background) and then let them stay there. Also here for any movie claiming that all teenagers are inherently feral. Triply here for anything that embraces pure nonsense and the occasional sword gag. Ayo Edebiri fireman-carrying Nicholas Galitizine through a slow-motion tableau of horrendous violence really is the energy we all needed this year. 
(on Amazon Prime, rentable)

                                                                          

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19. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (dir. Jeff Rowe)
Look, I told you in the first sentence that this movie made me tear up--what did you expect? Absolutely thrilled that the dominance of the Spider-Verse is inspiring a rush of  lookalikes and hoping that still feel like their own thing. 2023 was absolutely the year of movies that had no business being good (or existing at all) that turned out spectacular. Silly, fun, gleefully gross, with real chemistry between the four leads (helped by the fact that they actually hired teenagers to be the leads in a movie with 'teenage' in its title) and a strong enough emotional core to make me wipe dainty tears into my pillow.
(on Amazon Prime, Paramount+, rentable)

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18. The Boy and the Heron (dir. Hayao Miyazaki)

Beautiful and inscrutable in equal measure--and maybe it can only be one because it's also the other. Feels like I'd need three or four more viewings and some cliff notes to really grab everything I can or should from this movie, but then again I feel like I could spend another four or five rewatches not wanting to force my way into the tower. Maybe some things are better left baffling?
(not currently available online)

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17. Showing Up (dir. Kelly Reichardt)
I love how committed Kelly Reichardt is to showing how no one is always wonderful, neither in their best nor worst moments, in a medium that tends to make suffering look noble and joy look easy, and I love how committed she is to staging smallness without trying to make it Something Bigger. This is a minor film in the most complimentary sense--a few days pass, some very small lessons are learned (but maybe not applied), and then there's nothing to do but put your hands in your pockets or see if your hot water works.

(on Showtime, rentable)

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16. Rotting in the Sun (dir. Sebastián Silva)
God, the giddy absurdity and walls-caving-in horror of almost drowning an then waking up to a forest of disinterested dicks while Jordan Firstman pitches you his show about Instagram without even pausing to cough up the seawater in his lungs. Bits of Psycho plus Apocalypse Now plus the kind of hell that Mike Huckabee fantasizes about and the kind of queer hedonia that social media promises us all rolled in to one, and all for the wrong (or right) reasons.

(on Mubi, rentable)

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15. The Eight Mountains (dir. Felix van Groeningen, Charlotte Vandermeersch)
There are so many people, places, and things to love that it's sometimes easier to opt out of loving any of them at all--and who's to say if that's better or worse than loving too many of them at once, or too much. Maybe it's simpler to embrace things only in the past tense, like writing a novel, as though the only way to hold onto the things that want to disappear is to make sure that they do.
Really lovely movie, full of sections so gentle and grand that they ache. Sent me scurrying to Youtube as soon as it was over to look up Daniel Norgren's whole discography.
(on Criterion, rentable)

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14. Fallen Leaves (dir. Aki Kaurismäki)
Kaurismäki movies are like if Bresson were a sarcastic little shit who spent a *lot* of time in front of a wall of paint swatches, dreaming about the possibilities, and this one's no exception. Funny in a brutal way (or brutal in a funny way?), a one-dry and transient attempt at romance in the proverbial desert, like watching plants grown in the cracks of the sidewalk outside a karaoke bar.
(on Mubi, rentable)

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13. The Zone of Interest (dir. Jonathan Glazer)

The Zone of Interest wants nothing but your boredom and your illness. We watch insipid people having the same dull conversations while listening to something unimaginable and unavoidable happening until finally we get to go home having felt nothing much beyond a dull pounding horror. There's nothing else to feel or imagine, because the only people who can communicate the fullness of that experience can't speak. We can talk about the banality of evil, but it's worth (in this context, at least) talking about the banality of Holocaust films as well. What can be dramatized, seen, or heard, that isn't an empty imagining or a crass attempt to turn unimaginable horror into entertainment? How can anyone walk into a movie about genocide hoping for a nice enjoyable cry without throwing up in the back of their mouth? This movie is a dull and empty shell because it has to be--because any effort to fabricate the world on the other side of the wall--to make it exciting, compelling, cathartic--is something of an aberration.
(in theaters, rentable)

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12. Oppenheimer (dir. Christopher Nolan)

Probably the most I will ever be able to like a Christopher Nolan movie? And all it took was him fulfilling cinema's true promise (filming Josh Hartnett being vaguely annoyed about math). I'm afraid this one's already in danger of becoming wildly overpraised, but hey, if it's a Christopher Nolan movie that even I like, then it must be something. And there's plenty to like (Robert Downey Jr.'s performance notwithstanding) in this three hour breakneck scream into whatever the opposite of the abyss is.
(rentable)

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11. Red, White, and Royal Blue (dir. Matthew López)

Ok look--don't go watch this movie. It's absolutely not one of the best movies of the year, and you will be burned if go in looking for it to fit in with its present company. But I, uh, had a bit of a moment with this movie this year (and may have watched it 12 times in two weeks), and I'd be remiss--and dishonest--if I didn't include it on my list. And it's charming as hell--the kind of movie that Bros wanted to be, but Bros spent too much time congratulating itself on being revolutionary to figure out that the real revolution is being unabashed and winsome basic trash. And for better or (mostly) worse, this is probably the movie that I've felt the most of myself in some time; it finds me where I am, holds my hand, and walks me through the process of creating myself from scratch, climbing out, falling in love, and then repeating those motions as many times as I need to. An endless series of firsts that feel like a kind of superheated bubble located somewhere between my heart and my throat. Actually yeah, why not, go watch this instead of Oppenheimer, you'll be better off.
(on Amazon Prime)

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10. Knock at the Cabin (dir. M. Night Shyamalan)
Surprised by how taken and moved I was by this small-scale spin on what it feels like to have the world breathing down your neck. I'm frequently not a fan of Shyamalan's deeply weird and arch dialogue--written and delivered like aliens above need to both understand it and be able to hear it from where they are--but sometimes, when paired with his increasingly (and aggressively) out there camera placement and image creating, it coalesces into a kind of dreamy sub-reality with its own quiet logic, and I can't help but give in. It doesn't all work, but it all works anyway, and the ending scene feels exactly right.

(on Amazon Prime, rentable)

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9. Saltburn (dir. Emerald Fennell)

I'm aware this is a deeply uncool choice, but really leaning hard into embracing the uncool choices this year (see above, re: me objectively proclaiming that Red White, and Royal Blue and Knock at the Cabin are better than The Zone of Interest and Oppenheimer). Some of the criticisms I struggle to see, and some of them I don't but end up not caring. I'm a sucker for spectacle empty facades and hollow rage and even hollower joy, and especially for a good session of gargling runny jizz out of an antique bathtub drain. Sure, it's throwing plenty at the wall, but the desired reaction looks to me like laughter. I don't think this movie wants to show us its lurid belly and then look directly into the camera, shaking its head at the depravity of the world. I think it wants us to laugh at how embarrassing all these people are, and how embarrassing it is to deeply want anything at all. Everyone in this movie is a riot and an embarrassment, but only a couple of them are anywhere near being aware of that--and those are the ones who (for a little while, at least) can make a play for the house (and the people in it), while everyone else fails to imagine, again and again, that anything could ever be wrong with anything around them, or anything they've done. What can I say--you can't make an omelet without fucking a few graves.

(on Amazon Prime, rentable)

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8. Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. (dir. Kelly Fremon Craig)
So thoughtful, deliberately paced and emotionally balanced, with time to spare to try and meet every character where they live. Rachel McAdams luminous, obviously. This was an especially wonderful film to see with my mom, who kept leaning over throughout the movie to tell me about the dresses she had that looked like Margaret's, or the ways her junior high was just the same, or the parts that made her remember her own childhood. Absolutely stellar 4D experience for an absolutely stellar (and overlooked) movie.

(rentable)

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7. Anatomy of a Fall (dir. Justin Triet)
A real bag of hammers kind of movie--quiet, brutal, and tough to pick up and run with but you're going to try to do it more than once. And it's certainly a bag of hammers that rewards on rewatch, facets and faces folding and re-folding to fit whatever concept of you reality you decide to adopt this time around. A long and lonely trek to an end where the only thing to do, as the characters say, is to make up your mind and then go home. Fantastic work on all counts, plus the added semiannual bonus of getting to rubberneck at the French judicial system.

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6. Godzilla Minus One (dir. Takeshi Yamazaki)

Beginning to sound like a broken record, but chalk up another 2023 release has no business being what it turned out to be. Nothing quite as visceral as the kind of survivor's guilt that follows you home and swallows your city whole. Some legitimately intense and upsetting moments, and a stellar sound design that allows silence to weigh as much as the monster waiting outside it. Feels corny to throw around a phrase like life-affirming, but sometimes corny is the right choice.

(not currently available online)

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5. Barbie (dir. Greta Gerwig)

A totally ludicrous movie from every angle. Glorious and monstrously dopey (in the best possible way); the banner child for 2023 movies with no business being any good at all turning out better than everything else around them. Had not expected to tear up through multiple doll epiphanies, but that's where we are. I hope that Ryan Gosling and Simu Liu have the courage to fulfill their one true path after this (playing feuding dancers/lovers in an off-broadway production of Shrek the Musical).
(on HBO Max, rentable)

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4. All of Us Strangers (dir. Andrew Haigh)

Understands, deeply and profoundly, that pieces of your life can be warm because they are a little poisonous, or are a little poisonous because they are still warm. All the pieces that fit together to define and enrich you while simultaneously shedding some light on why you might choose to spend the rest of your life in an empty tower. Really beautiful and painful work. The tears I expected, but I went in unready for how ugly and unsettled parts of this movie would be--though, in retrospect, I suppose the ugliness shouldn't have surprised me at all.

(As an aside, this movie is an  fucking oasis for Jamie Bell lovers who've been side-eying his recent filmography and praying for something better)

(on Hulu, rentable)

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3. Asteroid City (dir. Wes Anderson)
The kind of movie that made me wish I'd written it, a big jumble of nonsense opacities pointed upwards so you can try to look at something impossible without burning it into your eyes forever. The sudden chaos near the end, followed by a balcony scene that cuts through all the garbage without ever saying anything at all is a quiet stunner. Bless Wes Anderson for putting things like the the unfinished on-ramp into this movie and then never mentioning them again.

(on Amazon Prime, rentable)

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2. May December (dir. Todd Haynes)

Walks a perfect tightrope, all the while clutching a box of tissues with one hand and flipping off that box of tissues with the other. If you're not sure whether to laugh or cry, the answer's both, or maybe neither. A perfectly constructed and contrived house of carnival horrors from the get-go. Everyone's great, obviously, but for me, Julianne Moore's the whole show.
(on Netflix)

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1. Killers of the Flower Moon (dir. Martin Scorsese)

I think what sticks with me the most is how mundane the violence in this movie is--how utterly unimportant it is to all the people committing it. Deeply hideous movie about the annihilating power of stupidity and confidence, and how much room is made for both in systems that benefit from letting stupid, confident men do exactly what they want. Dicaprio, Gladstone, and De Niro doing career-best work, as are Schoonmaker, Prieto, and Robertson--a pretty mind-boggling statement considering all those careers. Astonishing and upsetting, with a perfect ending; this one's going to live in my head for a while.

And there's that! ('There's that,' he says, like 'that' didn't just take roughly two hours of your day.) I'm just going to keep trucking along (mainly because I need to have this done within the next 80 minutes and am starting to panic), so let's dive right into the best scenes of the year!

Note: I'll try to link to a clip where possible.

Note note: I generally avoid choosing endings for this category, but I'll mention which scenes might contain spoilers.

Best Scenes of the Year

10. First Demo Session-M3gan

I should probably have this movie show up more in my lists, shouldn't I? This scene is a perfect summation of the movie's intelligence and meanness, any real emotion undermined by the chance to make a buck, and by the movie's own camp theatricality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98bbGJgWVfU

9. Escaping the Castle-Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Turns out all you need for a great chase scene is a shapeshifter, a castle, and a convincingly stitched together long take.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_EVRaNF4XnY

8. On the Balcony-Asteroid City
Spoilers for Asteroid City, I guess? Though I'm not sure I know what spoiling this movie would even look like. A moment of fourth wall-breaking introspection becomes a seemingly throwaway conversation between the main character and someone we've never met, and it somehow ties the whole movie together while also making us all teary-eyed at dialogue that mostly isn't important to hear.

https://youtu.be/CTQIbFtAnDI?si=y3Lctf0Wai8e3ThJ&t=110

7. Phone Montage-Red, White, and Royal Blue
Probably the best representation of becoming friends over the phone that I've ever seen in a movie, the way someone goes from a string of words on a screen to someone that shares space in your life. (Also, I really need to rewatch this movie, because I didn't have every second of it memorized like I did in August, what is the world coming to)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCHG_SursqY

6. Avalanche-Society of the Snow

The most harrowing scene of the year, maybe? Disaster/survival at its best/worst.

(This clip is only like the middle third of the scene, but you'll get the idea)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CiTXgXyyTc

5. I'm Just Ken-Barbie

Who am I to turn down a massive theatrical power ballad featuring Ryan Gosling and Simu Liu in a dance-off and also a recreation of D-Day, for some reason?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDCnJHyMuyU

4. Austerlitz-Napoleon

Ridley Scott is pretty hit or miss these days, but every now and again he hits like a train, and this battle/massacre/lesson in winter safety was one of those times.

(The clip is like 10 minutes long, but I'll link to the part that got everyone talking)

https://youtu.be/A3Cg5_NxsIU?si=6PF_QlPq9ZQl-Fal&t=420

3. Boat Attack-Godzilla Minus One

A nigh-unbearable exercise in tension and Godzilla-sized minimalism: just four characters, one small boat, two mines, and one very large and very upset lizard intent on swallowing all of those other things whole.

(only 40 seconds worth of the scene, sadly, but here you go)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmbQmQ17X3E

2. Trinity Test-Oppenheimer

I know, everyone and their nuclear explosion enthusiast parents are talking about this scene, but rightfully so: the kind of swirling combination of editing, score, and sound to both heighten reality and take a stab at actually conveying the emotion of one very real moment, something that cinema does better than any other medium.

(How is this scene the one without any version on Youtube whatsoever? I'd have thought that that Nolan bros would be all over that.)

1. The Radio Show-Killers of the Flower Moon

Significant spoilers for Killers here, as this is the ending scene, but how could I choose anything else? A sudden cut to a future that contextualizes and retextualizes the events, provides knowledge without closure, refutes (again) any hope for anything that looks like justice, and implicates both the audience and the filmmakers in their desire (or attempt) to make any of this entertaining. A staggering ending--one of the best endings I've seen in quite a while--and one that'll stick with me.

(it's a poor quality version of the scene, but)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao8LyF-4Bbw

And finally, the worst movies of the year! While I don't want to dwell on negativity or end on a down note, there's some catharsis to be found in pushing the things that wasted your time right off directly into the fiery pits of Hades. So let's push away! Note that I generally avoid movies that are supposed to be awful, so this can just as easily be seen as a list of most disappointing movies.

5. Maestro-Almost comforting, in its own way--here I was thinking that I was going to go an entire awards season without deeply disliking one of the very successful movies, and then Maestro swooped in at the last possible second to save me from my own contentment.

4. The Creator-largely thoughtless and uninterested in its trotting out of or creating piles of bodies, except to generate spectacle. And the spectacle certainly works--it's a spectacular watch in every aspect of its design. Just a shame that the work of such obviously talented artists and craftspeople was in service of such a trash fire of a movie.

3. The Super Mario Bros. Movie-Spent most of the movie thinking about how they didn't show Diddy Kong, the most beloved video game protagonist of all time, and then they did, so that's egg on my face.

2. Next Goal Wins-Saw this because it was the only thing playing between two movies I wanted to see, and I couldn't move my car. Would have been better served by aimlessly wandering the streets for two hours.

1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania-Everybody talks about how the MCU's allergic to stakes and emotions and how every serious moment is undercut by a one-liner, but fewer people tend to mention that the rest of the runtime has a body count in the millions, and half your experience of watching any of these movies lately will be passively enjoying stock characters and digital extras screaming, imploding, being ripped into atoms, having their heads explode while their loved ones look on in horror, or generally having every kind of agony casually visited upon them while a blurry CG Paul Rudd wiggles in the background, I mean who even remembers when the climax of a Marvel movie didn't inevitably look like b-roll for a children's primer on crimes against humanity.

And that's it for today! I'll be back every day this week (hooray and/or horror of horrors) to wrap up my best of the year lists and then toss off some Oscar predictions, and then I'll recede quietly into the swamp to sleep under the mud until next year's late winter blogging onslaught. So check back for the next couple days if that sounds like something you're into! In the meantime, which of my (terrible) choices did you agree with? Where did I go wrong? How wildly did you clap when you saw that I ranked Saltburn, Red, White, and Royal Blue, and the Ninja Turtles movie over almost every best picture nominee this year? 

Oscar Nominations 2023: Who Were These Made For?

 

Ok, that's maybe a little uncharitable. 

This year's Oscar nominations are out, and despite me coming in hot with the melodrama, they're a pretty solid bunch. The Academy's been working pretty hard to change their memberships in terms of diversity and artistic adventurousness, and it's yielded some great crops in the past years, particularly in terms of getting the Academy to reconsider what it means to be a 'best' picture. Can you even imagine movies like Barbie, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest making the list even 10 years ago? And now here we are. So things aren't that bad--no particularly exciting surprises and some pretty egregious snubs, but overall a strong bunch of movies. Hey, they didn't even nominate one of my five least favorite films of the year for best picture like usual! (...though this is subject to change. I'm looking at you, Maestro. God, watching Maestro is like getting punched by every member of a symphony in quick succession but every member of that symphony is so pleased with themselves that they pass out from the sheer weight of their own artistic brilliance.)

One of the big stories this year might be the (re-)commercialization of Oscar fare, or maybe the Oscarification of commercial fare. Last year's ceremony saw the top 2 highest grossing movies of the year (Avatar, Top Gun) both nominated for best picture for the first time, plus plenty of other big hits, and this year we get Barbenheimer plus a solid mix of high-performing movies (Killers of the Flower Moon) and less commercially successful fare (The Zone of Interest, Past Lives). Whether people are spending more money on seeing prestige fare than they did 10 years ago or because the Academy's slowly widened its concept of prestige to include mainstream popcorn work, people are seeing Oscar movies again--and hey, guess what, it probably still won't change the telecast's ratings.

Another major narrative has to be about total precursor lockstep, each awards body uniting around the same 10 movies and never looking back. I don't know if this is due to an overabundance of awards before the Oscars (as of today, IMDB currently lists Oppenheimer as having an absolutely ridiculous 227 award wins and 352 nominations beyond that--how are those numbers even real?) or if it's due to the flattening of opinion that has to come with larger voting bodies (the Academy has almost doubled in size in the past 10-ish years) or that comes with every conversation taking place between the same people on social media. Either way, a the number of individual films being nominated each year is consistently down, with nominations in almost any category becoming more and more difficult to secure without a best picture nomination. There's only one category this year without a best picture nominee (visual effects), and only three more (makeup, sound, original song) that have more than one nominee that isn't also a best picture nominee. I'm not sure how to fix that, but I definitely think it's a problem. Are the 10 best picture nominees strong movies? Mostly! Are they undoubtedly the best of the year in every single aspect of filmmaking? Absolutely not! 

But enough of all that--let's look at the nominations! I'll put an asterisk next to the nominations I predicted correctly, of which aren't terribly many. I predicted lots of surprises, and got very few surprises in return.

Best Picture
American Fiction*
Anatomy of a Fall*
Barbie*
The Holdovers*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Maestro*
Oppenheimer*
Past Lives*
Poor Things*
The Zone of Interest

The big story here is that there is no big story--these ten movies have dominated the awards circuit and will surely continue through the Oscars. The only category likely not to be won by these movies is Visual Effects, and that's only because none of them are nominated (and we surely narrowly avoided a Poor Things win there). Luckily for us, the worst thing I can say about almost all of these movies is that they're just good or fine (other than Maestro, which is a felony that Bradley Cooper has committed against us all). Worth pointing out that this is the first time that three films directed by women (Barbie, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives) have been nominated for best picture in the same year, as well as the first year in which two non-English language movies (Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest) were nominated in best picture. My wacky Saltburn pick didn't come to fruition, and maybe that isn't a bad thing. I know I'm in the minority in liking it, but boy is that a movie that was made to struggle under the mantle of a best picture nominee. One assumes this is Oppenheimer's to lose, but I can still hold out for something weird like Killers or Barbie or even Anatomy of a Fall giving it a run for its money.

Early winner prediction: Oppenheimer

Director
Jonathan Glazer-The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things*
Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer*
Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon*
Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall*

The obvious story is Greta Gerwig missing for Barbie, which already feels vaguely egregious--Barbie's a movie that seems almost impossible to make, and Gerwig made it look easy. It helps that this is a potential all-timer of a director lineup. I'm not the biggest fan of Lanthimos' work on Poor Things, but I know I'm in the minority there, as well as in my only average admiration for Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer work. Groovy to see Glazer get recognition like this, which is a long time coming. Also, at 81, Martin Scorsese becomes the oldest person to be nominated for best director.

Early winner prediction: Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer

Actress
Annette Bening-Nyad
Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon*
Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall*
Carey Mulligan-Maestro*
Emma Stone-Poor Things*

Like with director, the big story is again the Barbie snub, with Margot Robbie missing out for a major best picture contender that she carries on her shoulders--real bummer. Also a shame to see Greta Lee/Past Lives missing, but it's fun to see Gladstone and Hüller get their first Oscar nominations (and Gladstone is the first indigenous woman to be nominated in this category). This will also be the only place that I won't quietly retch at the inclusion of Maestro, since Mulligan is wonderful in her role, regardless of what hoops the movie makes her jump through.

Early winner prediction: Emma Stone-Poor Things

Actor
Bradley Cooper-Maestro*
Colman Domingo-Rustin*
Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers*
Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer*
Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction*

Love to see Colman Domingo get in for his stellar performance in what could have been an easily overlooked movie--and he becomes only the second out queer man to be nominated for playing a queer character (the first being Ian McKellen for Gods and Monsters). My excitement is tempered somewhat but Bradley Cooper's deeply embarrassing Oscar-mugging also making the cut, especially over Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers and Barry Keoghan/Saltburn, but that's showbiz, I guess.

Early winner prediction: Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers

Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer*
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple*
America Ferrera-Barbie
Jodie Foster-Nyad*
Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers*

Boy, that somewhat surprising Ferrera nod--by no means a sure thing going into the morning--really gave us all unrealistic expectations for how high Barbie's Oscar dreams could soar, huh? I do love the phrase 'Academy Award nominee Emily Blunt' but am less enthused that it came as a result of this performance, an Oscar-baity supportive wife role in a prestige drama, instead of the genre work she's committed herself to over the past almost 20 years. Thrilled for Randolph and Brooks, though. Fun to note that Jodie Foster's nomination makes this the first time in history that two out queer people were nominated for playing queer characters in the same year.

Early winner prediction: Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers

Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown-American Fiction
Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer*
Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon*
Ryan Gosling-Barbie*
Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things

I'm going to have to sit quietly while everyone cheers Robert Downey Jr. on to an Oscar, aren't I? Truly, no one has a harder life than I do. As always, this is one of the duller categories of the morning. Just imagined if we'd gotten Charles Melton claiming Riverdale's first Oscar nomination, or getting some real chaos with a Jacob Elordi/Saltburn nomination. Instead we've got a passel of mostly fine performances (with, to be fair, a couple great ones).

Earl winner prediction: Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer

Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall*
The Holdovers*
Maestro
May December*
Past Lives*

Arguably both my favorite and least favorite nominations can be found here. Thrilled that May December got at least one nomination, particularly for its impossibly tricky screenplay, and gutted that Maestro, a movie that fails in its characterization, narrative, and dialogue, somehow fell ass-backwards into recognition here. Still, sans Maestro, this is a gorgeous category. Unfortunately, that is a massive and comic sans, so I've got to downgrade from 'gorgeous' to 'pretty neat.

Early winner prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction*
Barbie*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*
The Zone of Interest

Killers of the Flower Moon missing a nomination here is absolutely insane to me, and I hope it is to you. Still, the arguable frontrunner missing at the last moment allows for an absolute bloodbath between the top four contenders. I can't help but wonder if Greta Gerwig missing out in director gives her an advantage here? There's sure to be some blowback for not nominating her in director, and giving her an Oscar anyway to make up for it feels plausible.

Early winner prediction: Barbie

Production Design
Barbie*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Napoleon
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*

Get ready for a long below the line gamut of the same four or five movies dominating every category. Did you not love Poor Things? Too bad! Think Oppenheimer is overrated? Time to rate in seven more times! This isn't a bad list, but it lacks imagination.

Early winner prediction: Barbie

Costume Design
Barbie*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Napoleon*
Oppenheimer
Poor Things*

Same nominees as the last category with the same category. Worth pointing out that Napoleon had a bigger run than most anticipated. It's the most nominated non best picture nominee of the year with three, which isn't a huge tally but seems to have been hard-won.

Early winner prediction: Barbie

Visual Effects
The Creator*
Godzilla Minus One*
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3*
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon*

Maybe my favorite category, not least of which is because the branch clearly put an effort to look beyond the front of the precursor pack and choose things they might not normally have chosen. So we have a movie that heavily emphasizes practical effects (Mission Impossible), a movie whose production put tons of work and effort into doing effects in a way that respects visual effects artists' time and mental health (The Creator), supporting effects in a big-budget epic (Napoleon), a small budget movie making the most of its resources (Godzilla), and Marvel's one lonely nod for the year. Fun fact: both the Godzilla and Mission: Impossible franchises got their first ever Oscar nominations this year, even though they've been around for 70 (!) and 30 years, respectively. 

Early winner prediction: The Creator

Makeup
Golda
Maestro*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*
Society of the Snow*

I said yesterday that I wanted to bet on hope--to act recklessly on the assumption that the Academy did not want to personally victimize me this year. And look where it got me: watching Golda after I finish this post. I will never believe in hope again. And speaking of meaningless melodrama, I need to start assuming that any makeup work I hate is destined for Oscar glory, because Maestro's here and it's barreling toward the win. Still, groovy that Society of the Snow's work got in, and, to a lesser extent, that Oppenheimer got a nomination for subtle aging effects that still left its actors looking like human beings by the end (man Maestro sucks).

Early winner prediction: Maestro

Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall*
The Holdovers*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things

Statistics indicate that your future best picture winner probably can be found on this list. It's not impossible to win best picture without being nominated for editing, but it certainly helps. And as such, this isn't a bad list of finalists, though I'd much prefer Poor Things to have made way for something else.

Early winner prediction: Oppenheimer

Cinematography
El Conde*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Maestro*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*

Sure, why not? So many of these crafts categories are Oppenheimer's to lose that the other nominees begin to feel like afterthoughts. Is this where we might most expect to see Killers upset that narrative?

Early winner prediction: Oppenheimer

Original Score
American Fiction*
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny*
Killers of the Flower Moon*
Oppenheimer*
Poor Things*

Feeling good about predicting this category correctly, if not for the fact that it actually happened. I've got a sixth sense for finding the right flavor of mild and/or atrocious music that the Academy music branch must surely love (imagine me, Cassandra-like, sitting in the theater saying 'I hate every note of this, it will definitely be present at the Oscars), and American Fiction sure fit that bill. John Williams (Indiana Jones) again helps to prove that the music branch will always happily vote on name recognition alone, but Poor Things helps to refute that a little bit--a first-time conductor nominated for a deeply strange and atypical (for this branch, anyway) score. 

Early winner prediction: Oppenheimer

Sound
The Creator
Maestro*
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer*
The Zone of Interest*

One of the more surprising categories of the morning--who knew that The Creator and Mission: Impossible were beloved enough to beat higher-profile contenders like Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie? Still, this is clearly Oppenheimer's to lose--or is it? Is it too much to hope for a last-minute Zone of Interest push?

Early winner prediction: The Zone of Interest (why not, dream big)

Original Song
"The Fire Inside"-Flamin' Hot*
"I'm Just Ken"-Barbie*
"It Never Went Away"-American Symphony*
"Wahzhazhe (Song for My People)"-Killers of the Flower Moon
"What Was I Made For"-Barbie*

In many ways this category continues to be the bane of my existence. Once again, Diane Warren latches a wizened claw onto our hearts and drags us into the direst depths of Hades (which this year takes the form of having to watch a movie about the goddamn invention of Flaming-ass Cheetos just to listen to the credits song). What has she done to attain this level of love? They had to pause the nomination announcement because people wouldn't stop cheering Diane Warren's name. What blood pact has she signed? What rituals of atonement must we one day undertake for allowing this? I was also super pumped that I didn't have to watch American Symphony (a surprise snub; see below), and then this happened to me and now here we are. It's pretty fun that "Wahzhazhe" got in, making for one of the most atypical entries in this category in some time. Also fun that, whatever happens, we're going to get at least one Barbie Oscar.

Early winner prediction: "I'm Just Ken"-Barbie

Animated Film
The Boy and the Heron*
Elemental*
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse*

What a shame that my beloved-ish Turtle movie didn't make it here, but I can't feel too churlish about a weird queer fantasy getting in instead. I'll have to watch Robot Dreams before I decide how annoyed or giddy I'd like to be.

Early winner prediction: The Boy and the Heron (once again, dream big)

International Film
Io Capitano-Italy
Perfect Days-Japan
Society of the Snow-Spain*
The Teacher's Lounge-Germany*
The Zone of Interest-The United Kingdom*

Haven't seen the majority of these, so I can't opine too much, other than to say that The Zone of Interest will win this in a walk. Kind of a bummer for non-European countries (Mexico, Tunisia, Morocco, and Bhutan) left on the shortlist that couldn't make it to the end.

Early winner prediction: The Zone of Interest

Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol*
Bobi Wine: The People's President
The Eternal Memory*
Four Daughters*
To Kill a Tiger

As always, my first major work after the Oscar nominations is to try and catch up on documentaries--and I've seen none of these, so I've got a ways to go. Surprising in a not surprising way to see American Symphony miss here. This category has a habit of cold shouldering the big frontrunner in favor of lesser known titles; I even went on a whole tirade yesterday about how I almost predicted this happening and then didn't. So I'm happy to pretend that I did--wow, look at his powers of documentary prognostication, he's everyone's favorite X-Man!

Early winner prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol

Of the non-specialized categories (i.e. not animated, international, or documentary), I've seen most of the nominees already, missing only Mission: Impossible, Golda, El Conde, Flamin' Hot, and American Symphony. None of these on there own should be an obstacle to seeing all the nominees, since they're all streaming and/or rentable. The other categories, however, are going to make it difficult. All three of the international film nominees I haven't seen aren't available in any way, and might not come to theaters near me, and one of the documentaries is also totally MIA (and the other is only streaming on Disney+, which is a hurdle in itself). So we'll see! It'll all come down to how many of these movies feel like screening in the middle of the country.

Predictions-wise, I did pretty well--if not exceptionally--across the board. I only totally nailed Actor, Cinematography, and Original Score, but I only missed at least two in Sound, Animated Film, International Film, and Documentary, and didn't totally flub any category. Not too bad, considering all the flights of fancy in which I indulged.

For those counting at home, here's a list of the most nominated movies:

1. Oppenheimer-13
2. Poor Things-11
3. Killers of the Flower Moon-10
4. Barbie-8
5. Maestro-7
6. Anatomy of a Fall-5
7. The Zone of Interest-5
8. The Holdovers-5
9. American Fiction-5
10. Napoleon-3

And here's a few movies that weren't nominated for anything: Saltburn, All of Us Strangers, The Iron Claw, Origin, Ferrari, The Boys in the Boat, Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret., Priscilla, Asteroid City, Fallen Leaves, Wonka, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, Beau is Afraid, Wish, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Knock at the Cabin, The Eight Mountains, Bottoms, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, Cassandro, Theater Camp, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Amount Thieves, The Killer

You win some, you lose some. 

And there we have it! What makes you furious, thrilled, or horrified? As Always, no matter how good or bad the nominations are, I love the Oscars and all the silly things tha tcome with them, and every year before the nominations i have trouble sleeping, like a kid before Christmas. It's silly and stupid, but something ought to be,

Oscar Predictions 2022: And the Waters Receded

 

So, like...did we make it? Is this what making it looks like?

Last year (and the year before) I wrote in the intro to my first Oscar post that eventually have to stop writing about being in a post-pandemic world and the meaninglessness of time and just move on with our lives. And like...is this what that looks like, at least cinematically? Barbenheimer happened! More movies started coming out again! It looks like people are finally getting sick of Marvel! Wonders abound. We're not out of the woods yet, but it's always nice to enjoy another mile or two of woods before the fires come to take all us woodland critters. And I mentioned all of this in my blog post last year, so I have to assume that I can claim direct responsibility. (I also mentioned that in 2023 Godzilla would come along and surprise us all, thus further establishing my credibility/incredible power and influence.) Things are far from perfect, and time may still feel a little meaningless, but we'll take what we get, at least until next year when things really hit the fan (again). 

If we're moving on, then movies--and the Academy--certainly are as well. Or...maybe that's not accurate. While this year's Oscars won't be dominated by movies largely preoccupied with the death (or relevance) of the film industry and ways to exist outside its confines, they most certainly will be dominated by an dizzying number of period pieces and outright attempts to fold contemporary film techniques, pretzel-like, into shapes that let us all believe that we're not where or when we are (I see your digital-grain-ass shenanigans The Holdovers, you scamp). And whether it's nostalgia or horror, looking back is going to define the conversations about many of this year's Oscar nominees. So prepare your fanciest mirror or your most listless and jellied running shoes, and let's have a quick gander at everything that lurks behind our shoulders.

All of this is to say that hooray, the Oscar nominations are tomorrow! The Oscars are the one part of the year I get to take flight. Forget Oppenheimer's claim to being the modern Prometheus, that's all me, except I'm faster, haven't glued my blog together with wax (I assume), and am much less likely to unleash nuclear hellfire on an uncaring world (for now). Every awards season I get to fly directly into the sun and pass through laughing to the other side, and all of you get the absolute joy of watching me do it. Who doesn't want to read a couple thousands words about golden statues and the people who covet them? If you're here, I have to assume that you must (or, at the very least, feel compelled to give me a click or two, which is just as good), so we might as well dive in. Maybe not dive in however, as this year's pool is exceptionally shallow. The same 10-15 movies have dominated the conversation, and we can safely count on four or five of the strongest of those showing up in almost category. In fact, this year might set or tie multiple records for the number of best picture nominees category, which means that movies not in that top 10 are in for a rough morning.

But who's going to have a rough morning and who is Christopher Nolan going to invite to his annual Oscar Hunger Games (the winner gets to play a supporting role in his next movie, as long as they are a severe British man)? I'm not expecting tons of surprises, but I do love getting egg on my face, and I hope the Academy is firing up its skillet. I'll go ahead and dump all of my predictions in one massive list--because if there's one thing other than the Oscars that brings me joy, it's carving hours from your day. Bear in mind that I tend to predict a little more for fun than I do for accuracy. There are plenty of places you can go to check the odds for your Oscar pool, but this is, as Nicole Kidman probably wouldn't say, is where we come for magic, if by magic Nicole Kidman means a barrage of lists in which I ignore reality and predict some of my favorites instead.

(note: all predictions are listed in order of likelihood--so the first movie is the most likely, the second is the next most likely, etc.)

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Poor Things
Barbie
Maestro
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
Saltburn
Alternate: The Zone of Interest

There have been exactly 10 movies that have completely dominated the conversation over this category, and one of them certainly isn't Saltburn. So if you're a betting person, just swap in The Zone of Interest and count your money. But, for whatever reason, I have largely decided to ignore The Zone of Interest today in favor of other, less likely picks--but, again, do so at your own prognosticating peril. If we are talking spoilers for that big 10 (my top 9 picks plus Interest), what's on the table? I still suspect The Color Purple might stumble across the finish line, as the last unveiled prestige piece frequently does, or maybe May December or All of Us Strangers have enough support to sneak in. Or what about Saltburn? It's hated by many but has super passionate fans, and continues to sneak into rooms where it's not expected or wanted: it overperformed with Critic's Choice nominations (including a best picture nomination), got more nominations than expected at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, and has continued to appear on the edges of award season--particularly with the guild awards aka the people who actually vote on Oscars. It's probably dumb to bet against The Zone of Interest--or any other movie--not taking that tenth slot, but my guess is that Saltburn manages to sneak into the conversation once again.

Director
Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things
Alexander Payne-The Holdovers
Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Greta Gerwig-Barbie

Somewhat gutted to leave Greta Gerwig out of the top five, but them's the breaks. Really, though, only the top two feel truly safe, while Lanthimos, Payne, and Triet easily give up their spot for Gerwig or Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. I wouldn't be surprised by any configuration of those five directors, but would be deeply surprised by anyone else getting in. Who has the juice--Bradley Cooper/Maestro? Celine Song/Past Lives? Anything outside of the top seven feels implausible.

Actress
Emma Stone-Poor Things
Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan-Maestro
Margot Robbie-Barbie
Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Greta Lee-Past Lives

Came so close to predicting a surprise Carey Mulligan snub--who has watched and loved Maestro other than the mothers of everyone involved (and even a few of them thought it was a little indulgent)? It's tempting to call Mulligan as a casualty of the Academy's seeming ambivalence to her and everyone's growing weariness with Bradley Cooper, but in the end I stuck with it. This top six feels like your roster though, give or take Annette Bening in Nyad, who, to be fair, is the only potential nominee who had to simulate getting a jellyfish in their mouth, which has to count for something.

Actor
Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction
Bradley Cooper-Maestro
Colman Domingo-Rustin
Alternate: Barry Keoghan-Saltburn

Came even closer to predicting a shocker Bradley Cooper snub--even went so far as to write it up that way and continue writing until the end of this post until I came back here to lose my nerve. I think it's certainly possible--the Academy might be getting a little bored of Cooper talking about his decade-long impossible and herculean struggle to pretend to be Leonard Bernstein, so we still might get to watch him shamble, weeping, out of the Dolby and into another raccoon suit. Deeply silly to imagine that Keoghan would the benefactor of Cooper's raccoon tragedies, rather than Andrew Scott/All of Us Strangers or Leonardo Dicaprio/Killers of the Flower Moon, but the latter has been fading and the former is both gay and a little scary. Granted, so is Barry Keoghan in Saltburn, but in a way that doesn't make you want to call your parents.

Supporting Actress
Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
Jodie Foster-Nyad
Rosamund Pike-Saltburn
Alternate: Penelope Cruz-Ferrari

Beyond Randolph, who has giddily smashed every statue in her path to victory, this category feels unusually open. This might be because it is the only above the line category this year in which multiple non best picture-nominated films have a shot. But, as the Academy is absolutely glued to those top 10 movies this year, that means that Blunt is probably safe, and all the others can fight for her scraps. Brooks is safe on paper, but The Color Purple might just be out of breath right before the finish line. That leaves it on even ground with all the other performances from films that have lost steam below it, as well as Julianne Moore/May December and best picture coattail hopefuls America Ferrera/Barbie and Sandra Hüller/The Zone of Interest. Hüller in particular seems like the new consensus pick, but I struggle to see it happening--though, as I said above, I have arbitrarily decided that The Zone of Interest is getting mostly shut out and have no good reason for thinkin so. Instead I'll pick Rosamund Pike, who would have a strong shot even if Saltburn didn't go on the big improbable run for which I'm predicting it.

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr.-Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling-Barbie
Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon
Charles Melton-May December
Matt Damon-Oppenheimer
Alternate: Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things

Top three slots are probably rock solid, with a veritable avalanche of actors fighting for the last two slots. It's probably not wise to leave this category without either of the Poor Things boys (the other being Willem Dafoe), but Ruffalo's performance feels like the kind of thing people think they like until they're asked to commit, and Dafoe only gets in if the movie overperforms in general. Speaking of overperforming, Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction, Dominic Sessa/The Holdovers, and maybe even Jacob Elordi/Saltburn could all make a showing if their respective films hit harder than expected. But for my money, I'm betting on Charles Melton's early season passion being enough for him to scrape by, and for Matt Damon to benefit from the near-annual 'you were also in this movie we liked, won't you please come to our party' nomination.

Original Screenplay
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Past Lives
May December
Saltburn
Alternate: Maestro

Another place to ignore me as I convulse happily on a limb and put Maestro in the top five. Hard to see much outside those six sneaking in, however. Cannot for the life of me imagine anyone still thinking about Air all these months later, Asteroid City's totally flopped on the awards circuit, as has The Iron Claw. It's the six above or nothing, I think.

Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
Alternate: All of Us Strangers

Well, the nice thing about the Academy being so laser-focused on the same movies is that I only ever have to type a few titles. Toss in The Zone of Interest and that's probably your only possible nominees. Remember when we were talking about Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret for this? Halcyon days.

Production Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Zone of Interest
Alternate: Asteroid City

Now we settle in for a long line of craft categories in which best picture nominees take most of the spots while movies not in that top group break each other's limbs for a little attention. Here, said limb-breaker is Asteroid City, which makes a lot of sense as a nominee here, but I've decided it misses in favor of Interest's historical recreations. Wonka or Saltburn could land here if the Academy is feeling a little frisky, or Maestro or Napoleon if not.

Costume Design
Barbie
Poor Things
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
The Color Purple
Alternate: Oppenheimer

I'm basing my final slot here on two things: 1) my mom was impressed and excited by The Color Purple's evolving costumes over the decades, and 2) I might like Oppenheimer more than most Christopher Nolan movies, but not enough that I want anyone involved with it to be able to smile too much. Tough category to pin down, in that nothing beyond the first two or three slots feels that likely as a nominee. Wonka and Maestro could also show up, but is there any reason they're more likely than any of the others? Hard to say. Almost predicted a left field Hunger Games nomination, but you can only indulge in so much whimsy before your whimsy meter runs out and you have to go recharge the whimsy elf that lives in your closet for just such a purpose.

Visual Effects
The Creator
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Godzilla Minus One
Napoleon
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Alternate: Poor Things

Arguably the wackiest category of the year at this moment. I'm actively rooting against Poor Things, not because I don't think it'd be a worthy nominee (...though, uh), but because a best picture nominee getting in here would make the race much easier to call, and as it stands it's pure anarchy. Anything could get in! Anything could win! The old gods are dead, and the new ones are all animated or like like big lizards! In addition to the six above, Indiana Jones and Society of the Snow could just as easily get in--and win!--as any of the others. Really, no movie is safe here, and anything could happen.

Makeup
Maestro
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Society of the Snow
Beau is Afraid
Alternate: Golda

So many years, in so many categories, I'll make predictions purely under the assumption that the Academy as a monolith watches everything I do and acts solely out of spite, throwing nominations to movies designed to test and punish me in ways unknowable and unimaginable. But what if I chose to believe in dignity? What if I believed that the Academy has finally learned the boundaries of human suffering and is choosing pity this year? All of this is a long and ridiculous way to say that I'm not predicting Golda because I really don't have to watch it, and I'm hoping the Academy will choose kindness. Makeup is always one of the most volatile categories, so expect any of the top six to fall out and make room for Napoleon, Killers of the Flower Moon, Ferrari, or The Last Voyage of the Demeter.

Film Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
Alternate: Poor Things

This easily feels like the most straightforward category that I am most likely to get wrong. Predicting a Poor Things snub is probably ill-conceived, but I operate under the assumption that the film's shagginess will outweigh its best picture credentials, and I am still for no reason snubbing The Zone of Interest in most places, so here we are. It'd be deeply surprising to see anything but those seven movies show up in this category, unless Maestro or American Fiction is much closer to winning best picture than anyone thinks.

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Poor Things
El Conde
Alternate: Saltburn

I was tempted to ignore Poor Things' variety pack of lenses from Kroger here--and I still think that's possible--but I suppose I can only predict so many surprise Poor Things omissions before I start implying that it's out of the best picture race, which it certainly isn't, so I guess the Kroger lenses get to stay. El Conde feels like the kind of nomination that surprises people in the morning who then two days later make the argument that most black and white movies that come down the pike get picked for this category. The Zone of Interest could easily make this category if it's feeling robust, as could Saltburn or even Barbie if either lands in a big way.

Original Score
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moons
Poor Things
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Feels wrong for Spider-Man to miss here, but I feel in my bones that the Academy will warm to American Fiction's elevator music and John Williams (Indiana Jones) has only missed a nomination in this category for three movies in the past 20 years, so it's dangerous to bet against him. But this category's volatile, and Oppenheimer is the only nomination I'd really bet on. Barbie, The Zone of Interest, and Saltburn could all show up if their movie is strong enough, Elemental and Society of the Snow might show up if the Academy plays their favorite composers, and The Boy and the Heron could even slip in if the Academy is feeling sentimental about Miyazaki and/or enjoys watching large militarized birds attack to a snappy tune. Anything's possible, and if you're looking for a major shakeup in any category, you might look to this one.

Sound
Oppenheimer
Maestro
Ferrari
The Zone of Interest
The Killer
Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

I'm going to play the hero and predict The Killer to shock here when no one else would--it's a tough job, but someone (other than David Fincher) has to do it. Both Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie could swoop in to take the year's token best picture contender slot, and Napoleon might have wowed enough people with all its cold and watery carnage to have earned a spot here. Still, I think the narrative in this category is how many big best picture contenders push out how many non best picture nominees.

Original Song
"I'm Just Ken"-Barbie
"What Was I Made For"-Barbie
"The Fire Inside"-Flamin' Hot
"It Never Went Away"-American Symphony
"Can't Catch Me Now"-The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Alternate: "Road to Freedom"-Rustin

Year in and year out the most difficult to predict category. Only one thing is certain: once again, Diane Warren's blood pact with Moloch the Deceiver has been fulfilled and a new wretched beast--this one about the invention of flaming hot cheetos, allegedly--stirs in the depths and shambles its slow and apparently inevitable path to the Dolby theater. At some point, there has to be some kind of orchestrated look into how Diane Warren never fails to get Oscar nominations for movies that seemingly don't exist, but until then we're all gonna just have to watch the cheeto movie to sate the little completionist goblins that live in our brains. I'm also predicting an unprecedent moment, the Hunger Games movies getting their first Oscar nomination five movies into the franchise, something that has never happened in the history of franchises, because...well, because I think season favorite "Road to Freedom" is a song that should make everyone involved feel a little bad about themselves, and that's my only reason. But this category is always anarchy, so who knows? It's tempting to really choose chaos and pick either of the shortlisted songs from Flora and Son (speaking of movies that didn't exist until someone wrote a song for them), or assume that the songs from Past Lives or Killers of the Flower Moon get in on pedigree alone, but I think I'll stick with my potentially history-making Olivia Rodrigo bop from The Hunger Games, just for fun.

Animated Film
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Suzume:
Alternate: Nimona

Probably a mistake not to predict Nimona, a movie that's had a great precursor run, in favor of the little anime movie (especially when the category is already home to another not so little anime movie), especially given Netflix's stellar track record, but here we are. Look for Robot Dreams to potentially fill Suzume's artsy movie slot, or for Mario to take the turtles' mainstream slot, or maybe something terribly shocking from a movie whose name I don't even know right now--it wouldn't be the first time it'd happened in this category.

International Film
The Zone of Interest-The United Kingdom
Society of the Snow-Spain
Fallen Leaves-Finland
Totem-Mexico
The Teacher's Lounge-Germany
Alternate: 20 Days in Mariupol-Ukraine

Nothing can stop The Zone of Interest's domination in this category, but everything below it is on shaky ground--it's a strangely fluid year in this category, partially made possible by how a lot of the movies that won this category during the precursor season (Anatomy of a Fall, Godzilla Minus One, Past Lives) are ineligible in this category at the Oscars. I'm sure I'll be kicking myself tomorrow for not slipping 20 Days in Mariupol into the top 5, and the same could easily be said for Perfect Days/Japan and The Taste of Things/France. Opting for a Monk and the Gun/Bhutan shocker is a nice thought, but it'd be awfully lucky and/or bizarre for the country--and the same director--to score two shocking nominations with two consecutive submissions.

Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
American Symphony
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
Beyond Utopia
Four Daughters
Alternate: The Eternal Memory

Perennially the category I know the least about and struggle the most to be invested in, so take these predictions with a bus-sized grain of salt. Thought about predicting a snub for the presumed frontrunner American Symphony, just because this category sometimes likes to throw the awards seasons' favorite darlings in the wood chipper and dance in the rain, but I couldn't justify anything below it having enough passion to unseat it. Still, if it does get snubbed, remember you heard it here first and I absolutely thought about predicting it, which is more or less the same as actually doing so, right?

And there you have it! For those playing along at home, here are the movies I'm predicting will get the most nominations:

Oppenheimer-13
Killers of the Flower Moon-10
Poor Things-9
Barbie-9
The Holdovers-6

I might have gone a little too hard on Maestro and Poor Things, but the rest make sense to me--it feels like the kind of year where everything scurries off the landing strip to make room for one movie's big entrance, and Christopher Nolan's flying that plane.

I know it's silly for me to spend this much time talking about movies and Oscars without talking about any of my own picks--and you can all rest easy, because those are certainly coming. I'm aiming for the first week or two in February, depending on when and how I can still see a few more movies, as well as what happens in my life in the next few weeks. But for now, if I could guarantee any nominations, it'd be Julianne Moore getting in for May December (or maybe Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers), and if I could prevent any one nomination, I would visit a plague of furious owls on all the people voting for Poor Things in editing and cinematography (though that's only because I know that not even furious owls will keep Robert Downey Jr. from getting his Oscar nod for Oppenheimer). 

And that's it! In a little more than 12 hours, every one of these predictions will be absolutely meaningless, which is exactly as it should be. I'll be back in the morning to unwrap all the Oscar presents and see how happy we should be (or how many rocks we have to throw).

Final Oscar Predictions 2022: The Only Way to Go is Up

If there 's one thing that can be said, it's this: this year's Oscars can't be worse than last year's All of the categories will be presented on TV (rather than on twitter an hour before the Oscars, thus abandoning the whole concept of celebrating filmmaking in favor of more time spent with people talking--on the Oscars stage--about how boring and meaningless the Oscars are), Shaun White won't be 10 miles of the ceremony, no last-minute "best popular" movie category has been added to throw at Zack Snyder, and no one (hopefully) will assault someone on camera and then be applauded for it ten minutes later. (Jesus, last year's Oscars really were a catastrophe.)

So if we aren't going to watch a train wreck to rival the fateful circus pile-up that launched Steven Spielberg's career, what will we be watching? As for the ceremony itself, who knows--the Academy has been remarkably tight-lipped this year, as if by hiding what they're doing, they can keep us from being horrified by the choices they've made until it's too late. (We do know that Lenny Kravitz is going to perform during the In Memoriam segment, which...sure?) But the awards promise to be some wacky combo of bizarre, volatile, wacky, and infuriating. It seems as though I say this every year, but this year for real seems to offer more instability and potential for surprises than most in recent memory.  While that might not be true for the headliner category, keep reading to find literally a dozen categories that will be a nail-biter until the envelope is opened, and at least one potential winner that is sure to send me into the wood screaming, finally fulfilling my destiny and becoming the wild wailing woods hermit you all have known me to be all along.

However things shake up (and however they shake up will almost invariably be counter to what I imagine them to be), I'm happy to shepherd you through the gilded madness. This hasn't necessarily been the most conflict-free 12-15 months of my life, and part of wondered if this was the year that I'd stop doing these posts at all--who had the time, the mental and emotional capacity, and, uh, two functioning arms?--but the Oscars have been a constant in my life for so long, and I'm thrilled to preserve that to some extent, and that you're along for the ride. I should note that, unlike the past few years, I haven't been able to see a fair number of the nominees--an unfortunate side effect of being mostly unable to go to the theater (either for medical reasons or distance ones) for the last two months, which deflated my desire to sit through online nominees if being a completionist wasn't a motivator. But still, I've seen most of them, so I'll note what I haven't seen when it comes up, and let my heart pull me in the wrong direction everywhere else.

So let's get to it! Do note that I predict more for fun than I do for accuracy. There are lots of sites online that can help you ace your Oscar pool, but I'm going to use my space to encourage the Academy to release the hounds.

Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

The much-vaunted instability that I mentioned certainly will not start here--at this point, anything but Everything Everywhere All at Once would be a massive shock. Everything Everywhere won the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and Screen Actors Guild awards--and no movie to win all three has ever lost this--in addition the Critics Choice awards, setting a record at the Indie Spirits, etc. It's become an entire phenomenon, and one of the main questions to be answered right down the line is to what extent it can break the no big sweeps for best picture winners rule of the last decade. It doesn't help that none of the other nominees aren't totally plausible as winners. All Quiet and Elvis have momentum (All Quiet won a record-breaking number of awards at the British equivalent of the Oscars), but both have statistics working against them. Almost no movie has won best picture without being nominated in at least three of four big categories (directing, acting, writing, editing), and both are missing two or three of those--plus, All Quiet isn't in English. And sure, Coda won missing two of those nominations last year, and Parasite won despite not being in English three years ago, but both were unprecedented, and I don't know if those precedents will be broken again so soon. That leaves Banshees, Tar, Fabelmans, and Top Gun, each of which had early momentum and each of which has faltered in their own ways. You can predict an upset, but it's a huge risk. Instead, we can take a second to appreciate how strange, wild , and unique a winner Everything Everywhere will be.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: The Fabelmans
Should Have Been Here: Aftersun

Director
Todd Field-Tar
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund-Triangle of Sadness
Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans

Copy and paste the same argument as above with just a little more wiggle room. It's true that the Academy has been prone to picture/director splits recently, but that's most frequently in the space of a particularly notable ambitious or artistic work taking director from a more commercial or conventionally made best picture. This year, the big commercial work just happens to be one of the loudest/most ambitious directorial statements, so I suspect they'll stick together. Still, look to Steven Spielberg or Todd Field to take this if Everything Everywhere isn't nearly as beloved as we suspect.

Will Win: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Todd Field-Tar
Should Win: Todd Field-Tar
Should Have Been Here: Charlotte Wells-Aftersun

Actress
Cate Blanchett-Tar
Ana de Armas-Blonde
Andrea Riseborough-To Leslie
Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once

A very clear two-person race: Cate Blanchett had all the early momentum, steamrolling through the majority of the televised prizes, but enthusiasm for Everything Everywhere and Michelle Yeoh has crescendoed at exactly the right time, with her winning a maybe telling Screen Actors Guild award last weekend. It could go either way--Cate Blanchett feels like the more 'traditional' winner (as silly a word as that is to use for Tar) but Yeoh seems to have the momentum on her side. Flip a coin and/or cross your fingers.

Will Win: Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Cate Blanchett-Tar
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Here: Emma Thompson-Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Actor
Austin Butler-Elvis
Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser-The Whale
Paul Mescal-Aftersun
Bill Nighy-Living

Exact same situation above, with a close race between the early champ (Fraser) and the momentum-shifting late challenger (Butler). Fraser's moving comeback narrative might help him take the victory, but then again the Academy's obsession with giving Oscar to famous people playing other famous people greatly benefits Butler. So does Elvis' general across-the-board strength vs. The Whale's muted Academy support. Some people have suggested that Colin Farrell has a chance to split the difference and slip through for a beloved performance in a beloved movie, but if he couldn't win the British Academy award (home turf, so to speak), what are his chances of pulling it off here?

Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
Hong Chau-The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All at Once

One of the two or three most difficult categories to call, in no small part because everyone seems impossible as a winner. Bassett and Curtis are working from the same playbook--hugely respected and liked actresses with the chance to finally get their due in the kind of movie or role totally antithetical to the Academy's normal tastes (in this case, a Marvel movie or a small comedic role whose biggest moments occur whilst wearing hot dog fingers). Curtis might benefit from the Everything Everywhere love that seems to be cresting--as might Hsu, for that matter, whose memorable role in that movie certainly shouldn't be counted out. But if either of them wins, Everything Everywhere might be in danger of winning three acting Oscars: something that has only happened twice (On the Waterfront and Network). And are we ready to claim that Everything Everywhere is ready to join that echelon of most-beloved Oscar movies of all time? That could tip the balance in Bassett's favor, or possibly in the direction of the 'safe' choice, Kerry Condon. She has the most traditionally Oscar-y role of the bunch, and this could be the likeliest place for Banshees to win an Oscar--and given it has nine nominations, they clearly dig it, and might be looking to reward it. Still, You could predict anyone but Hong Chau here and have a good chance at being right.

Will Win: Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
Could Win: Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Hong Chau-The Whale
Should Have Been Here: Nina Hoss-Tar

Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway
Judd Hirsch-The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once

In contrast to the last category, this is one of the easiest of the night to predict. Almost impossible to imagine that Ke Huy Quan loses this.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Here: Paul Dano-The Fabelmans

Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once 
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness

Two-horse race between Banshees and Everything Everywhere. Banshees wins if they want to value dialogue more, and if they don't want it to go home empty-handed, and Everything wins if they value unique premise/originality more, and if they're caught up in the Everything Everywhere love. Fun trivia note: this is the first time that the director and original categories have lined up exactly, and each of the directors of these movies also wrote the screenplay.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Tar
Should Have Been Here: Petite Maman

Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

Reporting that All Quiet on the Western Front has a good chance to win this is one of the worst things I've ever had to do, but that's where we are--I'm in the trenches, and I'm not even going to get a retroactive adaptation about how it was actually France's fault all along. But All Quiet has come out of nowhere as a big Oscar player (a narrative we'll be forced to discuss for the rest of this post), so I can't pretend that it couldn't walk to victory amid a fairly low-key field. Its biggest competition is certainly Women Talking, a cerebral and dialogue-heavy meditation on timely themes written by a well-respected filmmaker has gotten her due--not difficult to see that as a winning narrative here. If Top Gun hadn't lost all its momentum, I'd argue it would be a bigger threat here, and if I suspected that more Academy voters were wont to say 'hey, it's Nobel Prize Laureate Kazuo Ishiguro! Let's give him an Oscar!,' I'd suggest that Living had a stronger chance, but I really think it's between All Quiet and Women Talking.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Living
Should Have Been Here: Fire Island

Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans

Another near impossible category, with only one movie (The Fabelmans) truly out of it (...then again, we also said that about Spielberg's Lincoln in this category in 2012 and it won, so). If you're looking purely at best picture momentum, All Quiet and Elvis have the advantage. If you're looking for the big, glitzy set-pieces that this category frequently rewards, look to Babylon and Elvis. If you're looking for visual spectacles that might impress voters enough to vote for them here, consider All Quiet and Avatar. If yon want to throw your hands to the sky and wail, get in the wailing line with the rest of us.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Babylon
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Have Been Here: Mad God

Costume Design
Bablyon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Significantly less sky wailing here, though there's still room for a good sky whimper. Elvis has the advantage of 'most' costumes, Black Panther has the most eye-catching costumes, and Everything Everywhere has memorable work in a potential Oscar-sweeping movie. The first two seem your likeliest bets, though I'm awfully tempted to call this for Everything Everywhere. Still, I think all the  recreations of famous looks in Elvis will be enough to carry it across the finish line.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Have Been Here: Glass Onion

Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

Deceptively simple: Avatar takes it in a walk, right? Well, yes and no. Avatar kind of fell on its face, Academy-wise. and when that happens, no amount of decade-in-the-making effects wizardry can save you from movies with more best picture buzz. So yes, the odds are still (probably) in Avatar's favor, but if you expect All Quiet or Top Gun to make a play for the top prize (or to supplant Elvis as the big craft sweeper), then look to this category to watch it begin.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Have Been Here: Mad God

Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

More close races! I told you that the categories were gonna be nuts down the line. The simple logic is this: whichever movie you picked to win for best actor wins this award (unless you picked The Banshees of Inisherin, in which case woe betide). There's a compelling case to be made for All Quiet to take this category if it becomes a real craft juggernaut, but I feel (somewhat) confident that the best actor makeup transformation goes hand in hand with respect for the performance, and that the whole process will take two Oscars.

Will Win: Elvis
Could Win: The Whale
Should Win: The Batman
Should Have Been Here: Crimes of the Future

Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick

What was previously Top Gun's category to lose has begun to look more and more like Everything Everywhere's to lose. Definitely pick that one here if you're imagining (like I am) that Everything Everywhere come away a big winner, and pick Top Gun if you suspect that Everything Everywhere is too weird or frenetic for Oscar's tastes. There's maybe a chance for Elvis to upset--and look for it to do so if you think it's going for best picture--but otherwise this is fairly cut and dry.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Have Been Here: Aftersun

Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tar

Very much All Quiet's to lose. Another spot for Elvis to push the frontrunner off its pedestal and gain momentum towards a best picture win, but I'm not sure I would count on it. Sidebar: if Elvis were to win, Mandy Walker would become the first woman to win in this category, the only one a woman has never won.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Elvis
Should Win: Tar
Should Have Been Here: EO*

*I haven't seen Bardo

Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans

An absolutely maddening category--arguably hardest to predict, give or take supporting actress? Any one of these nominees has a near-equal chance of taking it, by my estimation. Babylon and All Quiet two most non-traditional but attention calling scores here. Babylon cannot function without the energy and chaos the score brings, and Justin Hurwitz is a two-time winner, so clearly they like him--but can any of those factors overcome the fact that people neither saw nor liked the movie? All Quiet's score was derided to some extent for being anachronistic and sticking out, but those very elements mean that everyone who saw the movie probably remembers its music, and if they want an easy place to reward a movie they clearly love, this is it. Ditto for Banshees of Inisherin, a 'traditional' film score in a popular movie written by a well-loved composer who has never won before, which has all the makings for a win. You could argue that The Fabelmans benefits from those same elements (well-liked movie with a traditionally pretty score and only one easy place to give it an Oscar), plus the inherent draw of giving John Williams one final Oscar. And then there's Everything Everywhere All at Once, which probably has the least compelling winning argument here, but is also part of a movie that might win an absolute clown-load of Oscars, which in the right year is a winning argument in and of itself.
Basically I have no idea, and now I'm going to weep into my pillow a while.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Babylon
Should Have Been Here: Nope

Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

Remember when Top Gun was going to be a multi-Oscar winning massive best picture threat? Now it's barely holding its head above water, scrabbling to win an Oscar or two while bigger competitors walk towards it with a flamethrower. I think Top Gun could still pull it out here (and not go home empty-handed), but All Quiet is breathing reeeeaaaallly heavily down its neck, and Elvis is definitely creeping somewhere in the wings.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: The Batman
Should Have Been Here: Nope

Original Song
"Applause"-Tell It Like a Woman
"Hold My Hand"-Top Gun: Maverick
"Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"Naatu Naatu"-RRR
"This is a Life"-Everything Everywhere All at Once

Somehow, "Naatu Naatu" has gone from a 'wouldn't it be fun if it were nominated' pipe dream to a seemingly unstoppable competitor in this category. Some people have argued that Chadwick Boseman sentiment (as well as the thrill of having Rihanna return to music just to the Superbowl and the Oscars, in that order) will lead to Black Panther's song triumphing, but I'm...skeptical? If Chadwick Boseman sentiment were as strong in the Academy as it were online, then they probably would have given him the Oscar in 2020 rather than giving it to Anthony Hopkins before the ceremony slinked off ignominiously into the night. Still, it's an upset waiting in the wings.

Will Win: "Naatu Naatu"-RRR
Could Win: "Lift Me Up"-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: "Naatu Naatu"-RRR
Should Have Been Here: "The Whale"-Inu-Oh*

*I haven't seen Tell It Like a Woman

Animated Film
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

Probably a no-brainer--Guillermo Del Toro's Pinicchio crawls like a horrible wooden crab puppet up to the stage to shriek in its posh little voice about how no one is safe. But the fact that it was widely expected to show up in a number of categories (score, sound, screenplay, maybe even picture) and then fell on its face suggests that there is some (small) upset potential. Marcel the Shell seems like the likeliest candidate, but I wouldn't count out Puss in Boots, which had an absolutely astounding theater run based on word of mouth and is more loved than we might expect. 

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Could Win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Should Win: Turning Red
Should Have Been Here: Mad God

International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany
Argentina, 1985-Argentina
Close-Belgium
EO-Poland
The Quiet Girl-Ireland

Easiest call of the night. No movie ever nominated in both this category and best picture has ever lost this category, and if we're talking about All Quiet as a legitimate threat to win best picture, there's no way it can lose here.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front-Germany
Could Win: Argentina, 1985-Argentina
Should Win: Close-Belgium*
Should Have Been Here: RRR-India

*I haven't seen Argentina, 1985 or The Quiet Girl

Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

Navalny has emerged as the one to beat in the last couple weeks, displacing previous frontrunner All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. My months-long hunch that All That Breathes would be the stealth winner is seemingly coming to not, as is Fire of Love's popularity and support. Still, my instinct suggests that Navalny is not as ironclad a frontrunner as we're supposed to believe. So if you have a hunch, maybe now is the time to play it.

Will Win: All That Breathes
Could Win: Navalny
Should Win: Fire of Love*
Should Have Been Here: Riotsville, USA

*I haven't seen All the Beauty and the Bloodshed or A House Made of Splinters

And that's that! Currently, I've got Everything Everywhere all at Once as the biggest winner with six Oscars, but so many categories are still wide open; it's anyone's guess what happens. (Watch, now All Quiet on the Western Front will sweep all nine of its nominations and my heart will explode from rage.)
Well, whatever happens, it can't be worse than last year....I hope.