Monday, November 23, 2009
Your Slice of Zen for the Day
"Do you know who Marcel Proust is? French writer. Total loser. Never had a real job. Unrequited love affairs. Gay. Spent twenty years writing a book almost no one reads. But he's also probably the greatest writer since Shakespeare. Anyway, he, uh, he gets down to the end of his life, and he looks back and decides that all those years he suffered, those were the best years of his life, 'cause they made him who he was. All those years he was happy? You know, total waste. Didn't learn a thing."
Friday, November 20, 2009
Oscar Predictions, Part 3: Screenplays
Welcome back for the final installment of my Oscar predictions (for the week, anyway). Today, we'll be tackling a subject of much interest to me as a writer: the screenplay categories. The films are divided into two groups: Original and Adapted from Previously Published Material.
Original Screenplay
There seems to be a dearth of viable contenders in this category, for whatever reason. I've got four films that are almost guaranteed a place, and then I'm at a bit of a loss to come up with another competitor that sounds right. Oh well. The four locks:
The Hurt Locker. This movie's destined to score with the Academy in a big way, at least nominations-wise. There's no way it's not getting in here. In fact, it's already been cited by festivals and various early awards organizations. It's in.
Inglorious Basterds. At first I was skeptical about this film's nomination chances, but now it seems like a done deal. People love this movie, and, like every Tarantino movie, it's strongest point is its screenplay.
A Serious Man. Though it might be too odd and polarizing to get a best picture nomination, it's not a stretch to imagine the Academy rewarding the Coens for their usual quirky creative genius.
Up. Pixar movies pretty much get in here without trying, unless reviews are awful (but we're talking Pixar, so 'awful' reviews means 'only mildly enthusiastic'). Up certainly didn't get awful reviews, so expect to see Pete Docter and co. at the awards ceremony.
That leaves one slot, but who to fill it? Bright Star was my early guess, but it seems that Jane Campion's film has sunk, and I don't expect it to score in any major categories. The Messenger might also come into play here, but this tiny drama about the military's casualty department probably won't get seen by enough member to score any nominations. That leaves two more possibilities in my mind. The first is (500) Days of Summer. Critics went wild for this movie back in June, and it's not hard to imagine that Academy voters will remember it come ballot time. The other, less likely possibility is Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon. While it will almost undoubtedly come into play in the Foreign Language Film category, the film might not be well-loved enough to score other nominations. Foreign films have to be quite universal in acclaim and appeal to get outside of their own categories. Still, in such a thin spread of contenders, it could push through.
My predicted five, in order of likelihood:
The Hurt Locker
Up
A Serious Man
Inglorious Basterds
(500) Days of Summer
Alternate: The Messenger, The White Ribbon
Adapted Screenplay
Every year, this category seems to be stuffed full of big prestige flicks, with too many good films competing for too few spots. This year seems no exception.
Three movies have been released this year to general acclaim that you can put money on: Precious, An Education, and Up in the Air. All three have been loved across the board, have been especially lauded for their screenplay.
Two more spots to fill, and many contenders. I need to devote a moment to three of the big question marks left in the season: Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones. All are adapted screenplays, and all of them could sink or swim at this point. The Lovely Bones seems the surest bet here. Musicals like Nine have trouble scoring screenplay nods, and I'm expecting Invictus to be bad, so both seem unlikely here. Still, the word-of-mouth from Nine screenings seems incredibly positive, so it could still find its way in here.
Two other, smaller films also seem poised to make a splash here. First, Tom Ford's A Single Man. We have yet to see the public's opinion of this film, but word on the festival circuit bodes well. The Last Station, the Tolstoy biopic, could also easily make it's way in here. I'm a little dubious, however, simply because hardly anyone has seen this film yet. It might not make an impression.
My Predicted Five:
Precious
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Up in the Air
Nine
Alternate: A Single Man, The Last Station
There we are. All the major categories. I was planning on cutting it off here, but just for funsies, I think I'm going to post my predictions for all categories. It can't hurt, and I have some time to kill. Don't worry--I'll spare you the commentary.
Art Direction
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Bright Star
Avatar
Alternate: Sherlock Holmes, Public Enemies
Costume Design
Nine
Bright Star
Inglorious Basterds
Cheri
Public Enemies
Alternate: The Young Victoria, Sherlock Holmes
Visual Effects
Avatar
Star Trek
District 9
Alternate: The Lovely Bones, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Makeup
Star Trek
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
The Lovely Bones
Alternate: Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant, District 9
Film Editing
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Alternate: Inglorious Basterds, Up in the Air
Cinematography
Nine
Bright Star
The Lovely Bones
A Single Man
The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Avatar, Amelia
Original Score
Avatar
Up
The Lovely Bones
The Princess and the Frog
Bright Star
Alternate: Coco Avant Chanel, The Road
Sound Mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Nine
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Alternate: District 9, Up
Sound Effects Editing
Avatar
Star Trek
Up
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
District 9
Alternate: The Hurt Locker, 2012
Animated Film
Up
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Alternate: A Christmas Carol, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Foreign Language Film
The White Ribbon-Germany
A Prophet-France
Police, Adjective-Romania
Mother-South Korea
The Secrets of Her Eyes-Argentina
Alternate: Max Manus-Norway, Letters From Father Jacob-Finland
Documentary Feature
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Mugabe and the White African
Under Our Skin
Burma VJ
Alternate: Valentino: The Last Emperor, The Most Dangerous Man in America
Original Screenplay
There seems to be a dearth of viable contenders in this category, for whatever reason. I've got four films that are almost guaranteed a place, and then I'm at a bit of a loss to come up with another competitor that sounds right. Oh well. The four locks:
The Hurt Locker. This movie's destined to score with the Academy in a big way, at least nominations-wise. There's no way it's not getting in here. In fact, it's already been cited by festivals and various early awards organizations. It's in.
Inglorious Basterds. At first I was skeptical about this film's nomination chances, but now it seems like a done deal. People love this movie, and, like every Tarantino movie, it's strongest point is its screenplay.
A Serious Man. Though it might be too odd and polarizing to get a best picture nomination, it's not a stretch to imagine the Academy rewarding the Coens for their usual quirky creative genius.
Up. Pixar movies pretty much get in here without trying, unless reviews are awful (but we're talking Pixar, so 'awful' reviews means 'only mildly enthusiastic'). Up certainly didn't get awful reviews, so expect to see Pete Docter and co. at the awards ceremony.
That leaves one slot, but who to fill it? Bright Star was my early guess, but it seems that Jane Campion's film has sunk, and I don't expect it to score in any major categories. The Messenger might also come into play here, but this tiny drama about the military's casualty department probably won't get seen by enough member to score any nominations. That leaves two more possibilities in my mind. The first is (500) Days of Summer. Critics went wild for this movie back in June, and it's not hard to imagine that Academy voters will remember it come ballot time. The other, less likely possibility is Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon. While it will almost undoubtedly come into play in the Foreign Language Film category, the film might not be well-loved enough to score other nominations. Foreign films have to be quite universal in acclaim and appeal to get outside of their own categories. Still, in such a thin spread of contenders, it could push through.
My predicted five, in order of likelihood:
The Hurt Locker
Up
A Serious Man
Inglorious Basterds
(500) Days of Summer
Alternate: The Messenger, The White Ribbon
Adapted Screenplay
Every year, this category seems to be stuffed full of big prestige flicks, with too many good films competing for too few spots. This year seems no exception.
Three movies have been released this year to general acclaim that you can put money on: Precious, An Education, and Up in the Air. All three have been loved across the board, have been especially lauded for their screenplay.
Two more spots to fill, and many contenders. I need to devote a moment to three of the big question marks left in the season: Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones. All are adapted screenplays, and all of them could sink or swim at this point. The Lovely Bones seems the surest bet here. Musicals like Nine have trouble scoring screenplay nods, and I'm expecting Invictus to be bad, so both seem unlikely here. Still, the word-of-mouth from Nine screenings seems incredibly positive, so it could still find its way in here.
Two other, smaller films also seem poised to make a splash here. First, Tom Ford's A Single Man. We have yet to see the public's opinion of this film, but word on the festival circuit bodes well. The Last Station, the Tolstoy biopic, could also easily make it's way in here. I'm a little dubious, however, simply because hardly anyone has seen this film yet. It might not make an impression.
My Predicted Five:
Precious
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Up in the Air
Nine
Alternate: A Single Man, The Last Station
There we are. All the major categories. I was planning on cutting it off here, but just for funsies, I think I'm going to post my predictions for all categories. It can't hurt, and I have some time to kill. Don't worry--I'll spare you the commentary.
Art Direction
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Bright Star
Avatar
Alternate: Sherlock Holmes, Public Enemies
Costume Design
Nine
Bright Star
Inglorious Basterds
Cheri
Public Enemies
Alternate: The Young Victoria, Sherlock Holmes
Visual Effects
Avatar
Star Trek
District 9
Alternate: The Lovely Bones, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Makeup
Star Trek
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
The Lovely Bones
Alternate: Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant, District 9
Film Editing
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Nine
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Alternate: Inglorious Basterds, Up in the Air
Cinematography
Nine
Bright Star
The Lovely Bones
A Single Man
The Hurt Locker
Alternate: Avatar, Amelia
Original Score
Avatar
Up
The Lovely Bones
The Princess and the Frog
Bright Star
Alternate: Coco Avant Chanel, The Road
Sound Mixing
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Nine
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Alternate: District 9, Up
Sound Effects Editing
Avatar
Star Trek
Up
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
District 9
Alternate: The Hurt Locker, 2012
Animated Film
Up
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Alternate: A Christmas Carol, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Foreign Language Film
The White Ribbon-Germany
A Prophet-France
Police, Adjective-Romania
Mother-South Korea
The Secrets of Her Eyes-Argentina
Alternate: Max Manus-Norway, Letters From Father Jacob-Finland
Documentary Feature
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Mugabe and the White African
Under Our Skin
Burma VJ
Alternate: Valentino: The Last Emperor, The Most Dangerous Man in America
Your Slice of Zen for the Day
"I love rumors! Facts can be so misleading, where rumors, true or false, are often revealing."
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Oscar Predictions 09, part 2: Acting
Hello again, and welcome back to our dangerous foray into my bizarre obsessions. Today, we'll be cataloguing and collecting specimens of work that warrant consideration with the acting branches of the Academy. There are four: Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress.
Best Actor
This category is looking fairly crazy this year. It's chock full of veteran actors looking to receive a lifetime achievement award, newbies trying to finally be noticed for their talent, and movies stars having another go at it, all in one.
On the veteran's side, we have four likely contenders: The first, and most would say front-runner, is Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. Though the film has yet to be released to the public, early screenings suggest a career-best performance from an actor who's been nominated four times, but has never taken the gold. This could very easily go his way. His strongest competition comes from Colin Firth for A Single Man, who has already won the Venice Film Festival Award for best actor. Like Bridges, Firth is a respected actor who has yet to be feted by the Academy, and is gathering "performance of a lifetime" laurels. A two-horse race, perhaps? Not to be counted out is Morgan Freeman in Invictus. Honestly, it doesn't matter how good the movie is. He's Morgan Freeman. He's playing Nelson Mandela. He gets in on general principle. A possible dark horse veteran: Hal Holbrook in That Evening Sun. He's got the pedigree and the reviews, but I think the film is just too small and understated to make it in.
The middle-aged and well-respected come next. First and foremost: George Clooney in Up in the Air. This man seems to age like fine wine, and the Academy loves him the more for it. There's no way he won't be recognized for what many call his best performance. Daniel Day-Lewis also has a strong chance for Nine. Admittedly, his role doesn't seem too showy or over-the-top, and the Academy loves Day-Lewis when he's being showy, but he could still have the juice to make it if the film's a big hit. And I can't, in good conscience, count out Viggo Mortensen in The Road. Though the film has gotten mixed reviews, critical acclaim has been universal for his portrayal of a father pushed to his limits. He could easily make it in if some of the unseen contenders above fall through the cracks.
Last, but certainly not least: the new kids on the block. One name: Jeremy Renner. The Hurt Locker. Some people are saying the role isn't showy or big enough, but I'll be damned if the Academy doesn't recognize the slow-boiling masterwork that Renner's performance is. I say he's in. James MacAvoy, in The Last Station, also has a chance. He's proven himself in the past (Atonement, The Last King of Scotland), and it could be his time to get welcomed to the club. Will the film be big enough?
My nomination predictions, in order of likelihood:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Alternate: Viggo Mortensen, The Road, Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Best Actress
This category is just the opposite of best actor: where best actor is full of veterans looking for their due, this category is stuffed to the brim with young actresses with performances that can't be ignored. Really, there's only one slot up for grabs. Four performances this year have already stood out, and will almost undoubtedly be nominated. They are:
Meryl Streep for Julie and Julia. People love her impassioned portrayal of Julia Child. Plus, she's Meryl Streep, and has been nominated fifteen times. Fifteen times. They'd nominate her for reading the newspaper.
Helen Mirren in The Last Station. This performance as Leo Tolstoy's wife is supposed to be very showy: Mirren doesn't just chew the scenery, she rips it apart, swallows it, digests it, and regurgitates it in a new and improved form.
Abbie Cornish in An Education. This 22-year old's breakout role is a real acting revelation. There's no way the Academy won't sit up and recognize it.
Same goes for Gabourey Sidibe in Precious. She's young, but a natural. People's heads are turning.
That leaves one spot. But who will take it? Most pundits are lining up for Abbie Cornish in Bright Star, but that film has essentially sunk, in terms of buzz. I think it'd be a miracle for her to make it in. Saorise Ronan, of The Lovely Bones, has a chance, for her role as a murdered teen who watches her family from the afterlife. One problem, though: she's only fifteen, and has already been nominated once. Will they really want to reward her again so early in life? Penelope Cruz also has a chance to make it in for Broken Embraces, based solely on the fact that people do seem to love her right now, since the movie itself hasn't made much of a splash. The most likely possibility, however, is Marion Cotillard for Nine. Screenings of the film early this week had people raving for her performance. She could easily make it in on the coattails of the film, if it turns out to be successful.
My predicted five:
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Alternate: Abbie Cornish, Bright Star, Saorise Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Supporting Actor
God, this category looks so weak right now. There are two legit contenders, and three guesses based solely on film pedigree. Past that, there are a few hopefuls that only have a chance because of the dearth of other worthy contenders.
The two legit contenders: Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds and Alfred Molina in An Education. Waltz was easily the most memorable performance of the summer, and is a great villain, which the Academy loves in this category. Alfred Molina has gotten many tongues wagging for his worried father, and he seems like a lock, even if I didn't particularly respond to his performance.
The three guesses: Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones, Christopher Plummer for The Last Station, and Matt Damon for Invictus. Tucci plays a villain, which the Academy loves. He's in, assuming the film is good. Same for Plummer: he's a due veteran playing a known real-life figure (Leo Tolstoy). Damon is only in talks because, well, he's in a Clint Eastwood movie and we need to talk about someone, don't we?
As far as other contenders are concerned: Peter Sarsgaard, the best supporting performance in An Education for my dollar. He could get in if Invictus or The Lovely Bones turns out to be bad. Same for Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker. He could easily make it if the Academy embraces his film more than we think it will. Lastly: Stanly Tucci for Julie and Julia. If The Lovely Bones fails, assume that Tucci will get in for this one. He's had a great career run of late, and it's his time for recognition. It just depends on which role they want to reward.
My predicted five:
Cristoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Alfred Molina, An Education
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Matt Damon, Invictus
Alternate: Peter Sarsgaard, An Education, Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Supporting Actress
This category, on the other hand, is just rife with potential contenders. Doesn't matter however, because Mo'Nique is gonna win. No contest. Sorry. Still, there are four other people who can say that 'it's an honor to be nominated,' right? Four movies dominate this category, and all of them could have multiple women nominated.
Precious will undoubtedly see Mo'Nique's abusive mother nominated. Also in the mix, however, are Paula Patton as a caring teacher, and Mariah Carey (no kidding) as a down-to-earth therapist. I don't like the last two actresses' chances, however. It's just going to be too hard to get out from under Mo'Nique's impressive shadow.
Nine is bursting with talented thespians. Most likely to stand out are Penelope Cruz and Judi Dench. Don't rule out Nicole Kidman, Kate Hudson, or Sophia Loren, however.
Up in the Air offers up two (reportedly) great performances from Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga. I don't think both will get in, and Kendrick's performance is showier. Draw your own conclusions.
Similarly, The Lovely Bones has the potential for two great supporting performances: Rachel Weisz as a grieving mother and Susan Sarandon as a spunky grandmother. Right now, I'll go with Sarandon based on respect, but Rachel Weisz is a very talented actress, and could easily knock this one out of the park. We'll know in a few weeks, I suppose.
One woman stands in the way of one of these films getting two ladies recognized, however. That's Julianne Moore in A Single Man. She's reportedly fantastic, and the Academy's really going to have to snub its nose at the film for her to not make it in.
My predicted five:
Mo'Nique, Precious
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Alternate: Judi Dench, Nine, Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones
There we are for now. Later: screenplays. Stay tuned!
Best Actor
This category is looking fairly crazy this year. It's chock full of veteran actors looking to receive a lifetime achievement award, newbies trying to finally be noticed for their talent, and movies stars having another go at it, all in one.
On the veteran's side, we have four likely contenders: The first, and most would say front-runner, is Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart. Though the film has yet to be released to the public, early screenings suggest a career-best performance from an actor who's been nominated four times, but has never taken the gold. This could very easily go his way. His strongest competition comes from Colin Firth for A Single Man, who has already won the Venice Film Festival Award for best actor. Like Bridges, Firth is a respected actor who has yet to be feted by the Academy, and is gathering "performance of a lifetime" laurels. A two-horse race, perhaps? Not to be counted out is Morgan Freeman in Invictus. Honestly, it doesn't matter how good the movie is. He's Morgan Freeman. He's playing Nelson Mandela. He gets in on general principle. A possible dark horse veteran: Hal Holbrook in That Evening Sun. He's got the pedigree and the reviews, but I think the film is just too small and understated to make it in.
The middle-aged and well-respected come next. First and foremost: George Clooney in Up in the Air. This man seems to age like fine wine, and the Academy loves him the more for it. There's no way he won't be recognized for what many call his best performance. Daniel Day-Lewis also has a strong chance for Nine. Admittedly, his role doesn't seem too showy or over-the-top, and the Academy loves Day-Lewis when he's being showy, but he could still have the juice to make it if the film's a big hit. And I can't, in good conscience, count out Viggo Mortensen in The Road. Though the film has gotten mixed reviews, critical acclaim has been universal for his portrayal of a father pushed to his limits. He could easily make it in if some of the unseen contenders above fall through the cracks.
Last, but certainly not least: the new kids on the block. One name: Jeremy Renner. The Hurt Locker. Some people are saying the role isn't showy or big enough, but I'll be damned if the Academy doesn't recognize the slow-boiling masterwork that Renner's performance is. I say he's in. James MacAvoy, in The Last Station, also has a chance. He's proven himself in the past (Atonement, The Last King of Scotland), and it could be his time to get welcomed to the club. Will the film be big enough?
My nomination predictions, in order of likelihood:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Alternate: Viggo Mortensen, The Road, Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Best Actress
This category is just the opposite of best actor: where best actor is full of veterans looking for their due, this category is stuffed to the brim with young actresses with performances that can't be ignored. Really, there's only one slot up for grabs. Four performances this year have already stood out, and will almost undoubtedly be nominated. They are:
Meryl Streep for Julie and Julia. People love her impassioned portrayal of Julia Child. Plus, she's Meryl Streep, and has been nominated fifteen times. Fifteen times. They'd nominate her for reading the newspaper.
Helen Mirren in The Last Station. This performance as Leo Tolstoy's wife is supposed to be very showy: Mirren doesn't just chew the scenery, she rips it apart, swallows it, digests it, and regurgitates it in a new and improved form.
Abbie Cornish in An Education. This 22-year old's breakout role is a real acting revelation. There's no way the Academy won't sit up and recognize it.
Same goes for Gabourey Sidibe in Precious. She's young, but a natural. People's heads are turning.
That leaves one spot. But who will take it? Most pundits are lining up for Abbie Cornish in Bright Star, but that film has essentially sunk, in terms of buzz. I think it'd be a miracle for her to make it in. Saorise Ronan, of The Lovely Bones, has a chance, for her role as a murdered teen who watches her family from the afterlife. One problem, though: she's only fifteen, and has already been nominated once. Will they really want to reward her again so early in life? Penelope Cruz also has a chance to make it in for Broken Embraces, based solely on the fact that people do seem to love her right now, since the movie itself hasn't made much of a splash. The most likely possibility, however, is Marion Cotillard for Nine. Screenings of the film early this week had people raving for her performance. She could easily make it in on the coattails of the film, if it turns out to be successful.
My predicted five:
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Alternate: Abbie Cornish, Bright Star, Saorise Ronan, The Lovely Bones
Supporting Actor
God, this category looks so weak right now. There are two legit contenders, and three guesses based solely on film pedigree. Past that, there are a few hopefuls that only have a chance because of the dearth of other worthy contenders.
The two legit contenders: Christoph Waltz in Inglorious Basterds and Alfred Molina in An Education. Waltz was easily the most memorable performance of the summer, and is a great villain, which the Academy loves in this category. Alfred Molina has gotten many tongues wagging for his worried father, and he seems like a lock, even if I didn't particularly respond to his performance.
The three guesses: Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones, Christopher Plummer for The Last Station, and Matt Damon for Invictus. Tucci plays a villain, which the Academy loves. He's in, assuming the film is good. Same for Plummer: he's a due veteran playing a known real-life figure (Leo Tolstoy). Damon is only in talks because, well, he's in a Clint Eastwood movie and we need to talk about someone, don't we?
As far as other contenders are concerned: Peter Sarsgaard, the best supporting performance in An Education for my dollar. He could get in if Invictus or The Lovely Bones turns out to be bad. Same for Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker. He could easily make it if the Academy embraces his film more than we think it will. Lastly: Stanly Tucci for Julie and Julia. If The Lovely Bones fails, assume that Tucci will get in for this one. He's had a great career run of late, and it's his time for recognition. It just depends on which role they want to reward.
My predicted five:
Cristoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds
Alfred Molina, An Education
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Matt Damon, Invictus
Alternate: Peter Sarsgaard, An Education, Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Supporting Actress
This category, on the other hand, is just rife with potential contenders. Doesn't matter however, because Mo'Nique is gonna win. No contest. Sorry. Still, there are four other people who can say that 'it's an honor to be nominated,' right? Four movies dominate this category, and all of them could have multiple women nominated.
Precious will undoubtedly see Mo'Nique's abusive mother nominated. Also in the mix, however, are Paula Patton as a caring teacher, and Mariah Carey (no kidding) as a down-to-earth therapist. I don't like the last two actresses' chances, however. It's just going to be too hard to get out from under Mo'Nique's impressive shadow.
Nine is bursting with talented thespians. Most likely to stand out are Penelope Cruz and Judi Dench. Don't rule out Nicole Kidman, Kate Hudson, or Sophia Loren, however.
Up in the Air offers up two (reportedly) great performances from Anna Kendrick and Vera Farmiga. I don't think both will get in, and Kendrick's performance is showier. Draw your own conclusions.
Similarly, The Lovely Bones has the potential for two great supporting performances: Rachel Weisz as a grieving mother and Susan Sarandon as a spunky grandmother. Right now, I'll go with Sarandon based on respect, but Rachel Weisz is a very talented actress, and could easily knock this one out of the park. We'll know in a few weeks, I suppose.
One woman stands in the way of one of these films getting two ladies recognized, however. That's Julianne Moore in A Single Man. She's reportedly fantastic, and the Academy's really going to have to snub its nose at the film for her to not make it in.
My predicted five:
Mo'Nique, Precious
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Alternate: Judi Dench, Nine, Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones
There we are for now. Later: screenplays. Stay tuned!
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
2009 Oscars: The major categories. Because it doesn't hurt to try. Part 1.
Hello all.
As you may or may not know, I nurse a bizarre obsession. For nine months out of the year, my inarticulate keening can be contained with the studious application of certain film-related websites. Those other three months, however, I enter full-on gibbering mode. And guess what? It's November, baby.
...My three-month allotment should start in December.
The hell with that.
Sure, it might seem odd to all of you sane people out there, but November is 100% Oscar Season. I can hear your protests: 'But...But...The Oscars are in March! Most of these films haven't even been released to the public yet! This is insanity!' No. No, dear reader. Insanity is the fact that the 2009 Oscar race coverage began the day after the 2008 Oscar ceremony. I've been staring into this big, glitzy abyss for too long, and you're about to reap a little bit of the benefits. So, without further ado, I shall tackle Oscar Nomination predictions for the major categories, which is to say acting, writing, picture, and director. I'll warn you now: I might lose you. I've got nine months of prior knowledge on this subject, and things that seem elementary to me might be new territory for you (example: someone says "Mo'Nique." If you aren't immediately thinking about what she'll say when she wins, then you've probably had a life these past nine months. Good for you.). Anyway, here we go.
*revision: This is kind of an epic post, so I'm just going to limit it to picture and director today. Following later will be screenplays and acting.*
Best Picture
You might be aware that the Academy recently expanded the best picture category to 10 slots, as opposed to the traditional five. This has, understandably, caused pandemonium in Hollywood, as well as bouts of insanity. Every damn film that gets released and becomes even a modest hit has someone yelling 'my God, we have a best picture nominee!' I kid you not: people have said that for Harry Potter, Star Trek, The Hangover, This is It, Paranormal Activity, and even goddamn New mother-...loving Moon. Here this, and here it good. (For added emphasis, I shall use all caps. Also, it would be helpful for you to put on your 3-D goggles at this time.) 10 SLOTS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE ACADEMY WILL CHANGE ITS TASTE. (You may remove your 3-D goggles now.) Yes, there are 5 extra slots. That doesn't mean that they will suddenly love comedy (the last comedy to win was Annie Hall, in 1977. It remains the only out-and-out comedy to be nominated, unless you count It Happened One Night, in 1934, or Lost in Translation in 2003), or science fiction (the only science-fiction film, and by science fiction I mean 'taking place in the future' film to ever be nominated was A Clockwork Orange. Please bear in mind that I don't count Star Wars as science fiction), or horror (The only straight horror film to ever be nominated is The Exorcist, or, if you count it as horror instead of 'psychological thriller/drama', The Silence of the Lambs). What I'm saying is that those extra five slots will be filled with the normal: Holocaust films, intimate dramas, big 'prestige' films, and, if we're lucky, one or two indie competitors.
With all that in mind, I've narrowed the hopefuls down to fifteen films, which can be split into four groups. I honestly don't believe that any other films than these fifteen have a fighting chance. I could be wrong, though.
Critical Successes that have already been released
This category is pretty self-explanatory. These are films that came, were seen, and conquered. Every single one of these films is in, barring something insane happening. They are: The Hurt Locker, Precious, An Education, and Up in the Air. Mind you, two of these films still haven't received wide release. They were still seen by enough critics, though, to form a consensus.
The Big, Prestige-y "Oscar-Bait" Movies that no one has seen
These movies are enigmas. They're obviously meant to receive awards attention, but good intentions aren't a guarantee of success. Some may flop, some may soar. Who knows?
The Lovely Bones: I honestly can't see this one going wrong. Lots of Internet space has been devoted to how this one's going to fail, but I honestly can't imagine Peter Jackson and co. directing Susan Sarandon, Rachel Weisz, Saorise Ronan, Stanley Tucci, and Mark Wahlberg, using already-fantastic source material, and coming up with anything that isn't spectacular. This one's in.
Invictus: A Clint Eastwood romp through soccer in post-apartheid South Africa starring God/Morgan Freeman. I don't mean to sound cynical, but it doesn't matter if this is good or not. There are too many old, conservative Academy members who will watch this, think 'my, what a fine film,' and toss it onto their ballots for giggles. My guess is this film will be rather middlebrow. But hey, middlebrow doesn't hurt with the Academy.
Nine: A musical adaptation of a Fellini film starring the bad boy of indie cinema, fleshed out by gratuitous amounts of fantastic actresses, directed by the man who was last rewarded for bringing Chicago back to life. Sounds like a no-brainer. My guess? It will be good, but not good enough to win.
Avatar: Some people think this will do the same thing to movies that Jesus did to the southern US, back when he visited Atlanta in 1963 (that's how it went, right?). Others think this will be the biggest flop in film history. Personally, I think the film, like Titanic, will have trouble reconciling its compelling story and jaw-dropping technical proficiency with its third-grade level script. But honestly, the quality probably won't matter. As I said before, the Academy doesn't go for sci-fi. This film will almost literally have to be Jesus to make it in. And remember, James Cameron: Jesus was crucified. Good luck to you, sir.
Films Released earlier that were good, but not good enough to be locked in
I suppose I shouldn't say "good enough." What I mean is big enough, or universal enough, or talked about enough. All these films have a good chance, but there aren't many slots open. It's going to be a bloodbath.
Bright Star: Jane Campion's Keats-flavored biopic was a hit with the film festival crowd, but fell flat on its face once it was released for general consumption. I'm sure it's a lovely film, and will no doubt be considered for other, smaller categories, but I don't think it has the juice to fight its way into the top 10. Sorry.
Inglorious Basterds: Who'd have thunk, right? Historical revisionism isn't usually the Academy's cup of tea, but God, they love WW2 movies more than life itself. Plus, this is one of the best-reviewed movies of Tarantino's career. They might want to welcome him back into the fold, since his movies haven't really caught on with the Academy since Pulp Fiction (excluding Pam Greer's nomination for Jackie Brown).
A Serious Man: I'll be the first to say it: The Coens might be too weird for the Academy. Plus, they won the big award only two years ago, and inviting them back again might seem like too much, too soon. Still, there are people out there calling this the Coen's best film. It's certainly not the majority opinion, but Oscar history has proven that a small group of rabid supporters is just, if not more, successful than being well-liked by a large group.
Up: Pixar's been flirting with the best category the whole millennium, even with only 5 slots. It only makes sense that their latest effort, which was received with critical acclaim as always, makes the cut when the field is expanded. End of story.
Movies that have yet to come out that might make a splash
These films aren't quite unseen: most have bowed at festivals or screeners or the like. They aren't big enough, however, to be in the "Big 4" I mentioned earlier. They might have a chance, or they might not, depending on how they're received by the public.
The Last Station: The Academy loves biopics, and this Tolstoy-themed romp certainly won't let them down in that respect. This feels like the sort of stuffy, period "prestige" piece that has been missing the cut for the past few years. In a large field, however, I figure middlebrow will cut it, as long as it appeals to the right audience.
The Road: This one's tough. On its festival debut, it seemed rather polarizing; some people loved it, some people hated it, and many more seemed indifferent. Then again, Cormac McCarthy movies have done well at the Oscars before (*cough, no country for old men, *cough*). Still, this one is noticeably more bleak, and hasn't been earning the "masterpiece" accolades that No Country received. This is quite the long-shot.
A Single Man: This could be the biggest wildcard: the festival audience loved it to death, the regular critics seem to not be moved. Plus, this movie is pretty gay (...literally), and the Academy has trouble warming up to that. Still, if its as impressive as its Venice Film Festival response indicates, they might have to sit up and notice anyway.
There you go. 15 films. Barring a miracle, 10 of these films will make it? Here's my prediction, in order of likelihood:
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Nine
Invictus
Up
Inglorious Basterds
The Last Station
Alternates: A Single Man, A Serious Man
Wow. That took a while. If anyone's still reading, let's try for Best Director. This one's easier; only 5 slots. Traditionally, best picture nominees dominate this category, with 1 or (rarely) 2 slots open for films that aren't recognized in best picture, but exhibit undeniable style and control. With the expansion of the best picture race, however, best director gets confusing. Some say that these five nominees will represent the "real" best picture, aka these five will be the academy's preference. If so, will the direction be ignored, or will reputations and politics still figure in?
As far as locks are concerned, we've got three: Kathryn Bigelow, for The Hurt Locker, who succeeded in bringing the Iraq war to screen with flying colors, meshing style, tension, and dramatic elements seamlessly. Jason Reitman, for Up in the Air; he gets in mainly on the coattails of his film's success, but also for his integration of comedy and drama, which isn't easy to do successfully. Finally, Lee Daniels, for Precious: his direction has honestly received more negative reviews than positive (ie too showy for the material, trying to hard to be 'a director'), but Precious is poised to be the success story of the year, so he's in.
That leaves two spots. Assuming The Lovely Bones is as well-received as it's going to be, then Peter Jackson is in for sure. We'll run with that assumption for now. So who grabs the last spot? Rob Marshall for Nine is an obvious suspect. They loved him for Chicago, and Nine seems to be showy enough to grab their attention. Clint Eastwood could make it in for Invictus simply because he's Clint Eastwood, and Lone Scherfig's An Education has gotten great notices in this respect. It could be too small and understated, however. That leaves two big, loud, unlikely possibilities. The first: Quentin Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds. I doubt the film will be embraced to this degree, but if it is, they'll no doubt want to welcome Tarantino back to the club. The second...James Cameron, for Avatar. Yes, it could be bad. But Cameron is the preeminent action director working today, and it's going to be difficult to ignore his mastery of the medium, regardless of the quality of the drama portrayed.
My predicted 5, in order:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
Rob Marshall, Nine
Alternates: James Cameron, Avatar, Clint Eastwood, Invictus
There's part 1. For your sake, I'll save the rest for later. What do you think? I know it's hard, since most of these movies remain unseen, especially if you aren't searching them out. If you were choosing, what would you nominate for best picture for the year so far?
As you may or may not know, I nurse a bizarre obsession. For nine months out of the year, my inarticulate keening can be contained with the studious application of certain film-related websites. Those other three months, however, I enter full-on gibbering mode. And guess what? It's November, baby.
...My three-month allotment should start in December.
The hell with that.
Sure, it might seem odd to all of you sane people out there, but November is 100% Oscar Season. I can hear your protests: 'But...But...The Oscars are in March! Most of these films haven't even been released to the public yet! This is insanity!' No. No, dear reader. Insanity is the fact that the 2009 Oscar race coverage began the day after the 2008 Oscar ceremony. I've been staring into this big, glitzy abyss for too long, and you're about to reap a little bit of the benefits. So, without further ado, I shall tackle Oscar Nomination predictions for the major categories, which is to say acting, writing, picture, and director. I'll warn you now: I might lose you. I've got nine months of prior knowledge on this subject, and things that seem elementary to me might be new territory for you (example: someone says "Mo'Nique." If you aren't immediately thinking about what she'll say when she wins, then you've probably had a life these past nine months. Good for you.). Anyway, here we go.
*revision: This is kind of an epic post, so I'm just going to limit it to picture and director today. Following later will be screenplays and acting.*
Best Picture
You might be aware that the Academy recently expanded the best picture category to 10 slots, as opposed to the traditional five. This has, understandably, caused pandemonium in Hollywood, as well as bouts of insanity. Every damn film that gets released and becomes even a modest hit has someone yelling 'my God, we have a best picture nominee!' I kid you not: people have said that for Harry Potter, Star Trek, The Hangover, This is It, Paranormal Activity, and even goddamn New mother-...loving Moon. Here this, and here it good. (For added emphasis, I shall use all caps. Also, it would be helpful for you to put on your 3-D goggles at this time.) 10 SLOTS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE ACADEMY WILL CHANGE ITS TASTE. (You may remove your 3-D goggles now.) Yes, there are 5 extra slots. That doesn't mean that they will suddenly love comedy (the last comedy to win was Annie Hall, in 1977. It remains the only out-and-out comedy to be nominated, unless you count It Happened One Night, in 1934, or Lost in Translation in 2003), or science fiction (the only science-fiction film, and by science fiction I mean 'taking place in the future' film to ever be nominated was A Clockwork Orange. Please bear in mind that I don't count Star Wars as science fiction), or horror (The only straight horror film to ever be nominated is The Exorcist, or, if you count it as horror instead of 'psychological thriller/drama', The Silence of the Lambs). What I'm saying is that those extra five slots will be filled with the normal: Holocaust films, intimate dramas, big 'prestige' films, and, if we're lucky, one or two indie competitors.
With all that in mind, I've narrowed the hopefuls down to fifteen films, which can be split into four groups. I honestly don't believe that any other films than these fifteen have a fighting chance. I could be wrong, though.
Critical Successes that have already been released
This category is pretty self-explanatory. These are films that came, were seen, and conquered. Every single one of these films is in, barring something insane happening. They are: The Hurt Locker, Precious, An Education, and Up in the Air. Mind you, two of these films still haven't received wide release. They were still seen by enough critics, though, to form a consensus.
The Big, Prestige-y "Oscar-Bait" Movies that no one has seen
These movies are enigmas. They're obviously meant to receive awards attention, but good intentions aren't a guarantee of success. Some may flop, some may soar. Who knows?
The Lovely Bones: I honestly can't see this one going wrong. Lots of Internet space has been devoted to how this one's going to fail, but I honestly can't imagine Peter Jackson and co. directing Susan Sarandon, Rachel Weisz, Saorise Ronan, Stanley Tucci, and Mark Wahlberg, using already-fantastic source material, and coming up with anything that isn't spectacular. This one's in.
Invictus: A Clint Eastwood romp through soccer in post-apartheid South Africa starring God/Morgan Freeman. I don't mean to sound cynical, but it doesn't matter if this is good or not. There are too many old, conservative Academy members who will watch this, think 'my, what a fine film,' and toss it onto their ballots for giggles. My guess is this film will be rather middlebrow. But hey, middlebrow doesn't hurt with the Academy.
Nine: A musical adaptation of a Fellini film starring the bad boy of indie cinema, fleshed out by gratuitous amounts of fantastic actresses, directed by the man who was last rewarded for bringing Chicago back to life. Sounds like a no-brainer. My guess? It will be good, but not good enough to win.
Avatar: Some people think this will do the same thing to movies that Jesus did to the southern US, back when he visited Atlanta in 1963 (that's how it went, right?). Others think this will be the biggest flop in film history. Personally, I think the film, like Titanic, will have trouble reconciling its compelling story and jaw-dropping technical proficiency with its third-grade level script. But honestly, the quality probably won't matter. As I said before, the Academy doesn't go for sci-fi. This film will almost literally have to be Jesus to make it in. And remember, James Cameron: Jesus was crucified. Good luck to you, sir.
Films Released earlier that were good, but not good enough to be locked in
I suppose I shouldn't say "good enough." What I mean is big enough, or universal enough, or talked about enough. All these films have a good chance, but there aren't many slots open. It's going to be a bloodbath.
Bright Star: Jane Campion's Keats-flavored biopic was a hit with the film festival crowd, but fell flat on its face once it was released for general consumption. I'm sure it's a lovely film, and will no doubt be considered for other, smaller categories, but I don't think it has the juice to fight its way into the top 10. Sorry.
Inglorious Basterds: Who'd have thunk, right? Historical revisionism isn't usually the Academy's cup of tea, but God, they love WW2 movies more than life itself. Plus, this is one of the best-reviewed movies of Tarantino's career. They might want to welcome him back into the fold, since his movies haven't really caught on with the Academy since Pulp Fiction (excluding Pam Greer's nomination for Jackie Brown).
A Serious Man: I'll be the first to say it: The Coens might be too weird for the Academy. Plus, they won the big award only two years ago, and inviting them back again might seem like too much, too soon. Still, there are people out there calling this the Coen's best film. It's certainly not the majority opinion, but Oscar history has proven that a small group of rabid supporters is just, if not more, successful than being well-liked by a large group.
Up: Pixar's been flirting with the best category the whole millennium, even with only 5 slots. It only makes sense that their latest effort, which was received with critical acclaim as always, makes the cut when the field is expanded. End of story.
Movies that have yet to come out that might make a splash
These films aren't quite unseen: most have bowed at festivals or screeners or the like. They aren't big enough, however, to be in the "Big 4" I mentioned earlier. They might have a chance, or they might not, depending on how they're received by the public.
The Last Station: The Academy loves biopics, and this Tolstoy-themed romp certainly won't let them down in that respect. This feels like the sort of stuffy, period "prestige" piece that has been missing the cut for the past few years. In a large field, however, I figure middlebrow will cut it, as long as it appeals to the right audience.
The Road: This one's tough. On its festival debut, it seemed rather polarizing; some people loved it, some people hated it, and many more seemed indifferent. Then again, Cormac McCarthy movies have done well at the Oscars before (*cough, no country for old men, *cough*). Still, this one is noticeably more bleak, and hasn't been earning the "masterpiece" accolades that No Country received. This is quite the long-shot.
A Single Man: This could be the biggest wildcard: the festival audience loved it to death, the regular critics seem to not be moved. Plus, this movie is pretty gay (...literally), and the Academy has trouble warming up to that. Still, if its as impressive as its Venice Film Festival response indicates, they might have to sit up and notice anyway.
There you go. 15 films. Barring a miracle, 10 of these films will make it? Here's my prediction, in order of likelihood:
Precious
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Nine
Invictus
Up
Inglorious Basterds
The Last Station
Alternates: A Single Man, A Serious Man
Wow. That took a while. If anyone's still reading, let's try for Best Director. This one's easier; only 5 slots. Traditionally, best picture nominees dominate this category, with 1 or (rarely) 2 slots open for films that aren't recognized in best picture, but exhibit undeniable style and control. With the expansion of the best picture race, however, best director gets confusing. Some say that these five nominees will represent the "real" best picture, aka these five will be the academy's preference. If so, will the direction be ignored, or will reputations and politics still figure in?
As far as locks are concerned, we've got three: Kathryn Bigelow, for The Hurt Locker, who succeeded in bringing the Iraq war to screen with flying colors, meshing style, tension, and dramatic elements seamlessly. Jason Reitman, for Up in the Air; he gets in mainly on the coattails of his film's success, but also for his integration of comedy and drama, which isn't easy to do successfully. Finally, Lee Daniels, for Precious: his direction has honestly received more negative reviews than positive (ie too showy for the material, trying to hard to be 'a director'), but Precious is poised to be the success story of the year, so he's in.
That leaves two spots. Assuming The Lovely Bones is as well-received as it's going to be, then Peter Jackson is in for sure. We'll run with that assumption for now. So who grabs the last spot? Rob Marshall for Nine is an obvious suspect. They loved him for Chicago, and Nine seems to be showy enough to grab their attention. Clint Eastwood could make it in for Invictus simply because he's Clint Eastwood, and Lone Scherfig's An Education has gotten great notices in this respect. It could be too small and understated, however. That leaves two big, loud, unlikely possibilities. The first: Quentin Tarantino for Inglorious Basterds. I doubt the film will be embraced to this degree, but if it is, they'll no doubt want to welcome Tarantino back to the club. The second...James Cameron, for Avatar. Yes, it could be bad. But Cameron is the preeminent action director working today, and it's going to be difficult to ignore his mastery of the medium, regardless of the quality of the drama portrayed.
My predicted 5, in order:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Lee Daniels, Precious
Rob Marshall, Nine
Alternates: James Cameron, Avatar, Clint Eastwood, Invictus
There's part 1. For your sake, I'll save the rest for later. What do you think? I know it's hard, since most of these movies remain unseen, especially if you aren't searching them out. If you were choosing, what would you nominate for best picture for the year so far?
Your Slice of Zen for the Day
"I just met a wonderful new man. He's fictional, but you can't have everything."
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Your Slice of Zen for the Day
"The two best friends had been close since college and shared the same tastes and viewpoints on most matters, yet when it came to the subject of love, it would be hard to find two more dissimilar viewpoints. Vicky had no tolerance for pain and no lust for combat. She was grounded and realistic. Her requirements in a man were seriousness and stability. She had become engaged to Doug because he was decent and successful and understood the beauty of commitment. Cristina, on the other hand, expected something very different out of love. She had reluctantly accepted suffering as an inevitable component of deep passion, and was resigned to putting her feelings at risk. If you asked her what it was she was gambling her emotions on to win, she would not have been able to say. She knew what she didn't want, however, and that was exactly what Vicky valued above all else."
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